Oregon St.
West Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.1 158
Results Rating +1.4 139
Pace 64.0 306
Improvement +2.4 94

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 169 C C+ C- A- C
Defense C 160 B- C D D+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 275 D 52% 310 -3.8 312
2 Pt. Jumpers 32% 247 C 39% 144 -0.8 221
Three Pointers 46% 70 B- 36% 116 +3.9 56
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.1 184 C- -0.8 198
1st FG Attempt C 1.01 194
Second Chance D+ 26.6% 291 A 1.23 13 C+ 0.33 141
Turnovers C- 17.5% 228
Freethrows B+ 0.37 20 B+ 77% 38 A- 0.28 10
Total Offense C -0.2 169

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B- 54% 89 C- 11.7% 224
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 34% 61 B- 3.9% 97
Three Pointers B- 88% 95 B+ 0.2% 36
Total B+ 64% 35 B- 5.0% 107

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 100 B- 55% 104 +0.7 210
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 273 C+ 37% 129 -1.3 83
Three Pointers 41% 190 B 31% 56 -2.0 101
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.6 278 B -3.1 63
1st FG Attempt B- 0.97 95
Second Chance C- 31.6% 233 C 1.02 165 C 0.32 213
Turnovers D 14.6% 312
Freethrows C- 0.33 251 C- 73% 243 D+ 0.24 264
Total Defense C +0.2 160

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 45% 112 C+ 12.7% 103
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 27% 215 C 4.9% 168
Three Pointers D 89% 312 C 0.9% 170
Total C 55% 173 C+ 6.5% 107

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.4 293 17.4 205
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 334 0.17 198
Improvement +0.3 #171 +2.1 #71

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 179 159 138
Results Rating Rank 171 139 119
Conference Record 8 - 10 9 - 9 10 - 8
Conference Finish 6 4 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.1 13.0 13.8
.500 or above 78% 100% 16%
.500 or above in Conference 75% 100% 6%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: San Diego (Home) - 73.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 3
Quad 21 - 52 - 8
Quad 39 - 511 - 13
Quad 45 - 316 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 129 North Dakota St. W 67 - 65 54% +1  57% 1 - 0 C +1 D -6 C+ F C+ B+ +7 B A F
 Fri, Nov 7 109 Illinois-Chicago W 76 - 73 47% +3  64% 2 - 0 C+ +4 B- +4 A A+ F C -0 D A+ B
 Wed, Nov 12 137 North Texas W 66 - 64 56% -6  4% 3 - 0 C +0 C+ +2 D+ D A+ C -1 F+ C A
 Mon, Nov 17 89 @Oregon L 75 - 87 19% -7  1% 3 - 1 C- -3 B +7 C B C- F -10 D- D+ D
 Fri, Nov 21 295 Evansville L 69 - 73 77% -4  11% 3 - 2 D- -12 D- -7 F A+ D D -5 B- F D+
 Sat, Nov 22 249 Iona L 84 - 91 2OT 68% +5  84% 3 - 3 D- -12 D- -8 C- F D+ C- -3 C+ C+ D
 Mon, Nov 24 185 Massachusetts L 65 - 73 56% -2  18% 3 - 4 D -10 F+ -9 B- F F C -1 A- F D
 Sat, Nov 29 138 California Baptist L 69 - 75 57% -2  37% 3 - 5 D+ -8 C- -2 B+ D- D- D -6 F+ A+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 229 Vermont W 80 - 58 74% +16  99% 4 - 5 A- +15 A- +11 A+ D+ D+ A- +7 A- B+ D+
 Sat, Dec 6 278 Southern Utah W 81 - 70 81% +11  99% 5 - 5 C +1 C +0 B+ C- F C+ +1 B+ F C-
 Sat, Dec 13 164 Montana St. W 67 - 57 62% +4  92% 6 - 5 B- +7 D+ -4 F A+ D+ A+ +11 A+ F B-
 Wed, Dec 17 114 Sam Houston St. L 75 - 85 50% -8  1% 6 - 6 D -10 D -6 C F+ B- D+ -3 C+ C- C
 Sun, Dec 21 60 @Arizona St. W 78 - 75 13% -1  42% 7 - 6 A- +15 A +12 A- F+ B+ B +4 A- A+ D+
 Sun, Dec 28 42 Santa Clara L 64 - 102 18% -22  0% 7 - 7 0 - 1 F -28 D- -7 C- D+ D F -22 F A D
 Tue, Dec 30 127 San Francisco W 70 - 62 52% +3  58% 8 - 7 1 - 1 B- +7 C +1 A+ F D A- +8 A+ B D+
 Fri, Jan 2 117 @Pacific L 53 - 84 28% -17  3% 8 - 8 1 - 2 F -25 F -12 F B F F -17 F C F+
 Sun, Jan 4 126 @Washington St. L 67 - 81 29% -11  0% 8 - 9 1 - 3 D -8 D+ -3 C- B- C- D -6 C+ F C+
 Thu, Jan 8 122 Seattle W 68 - 55 51% +2  51% 9 - 9 2 - 3 B+ +13 C +1 F A+ C A+ +12 A+ A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 10 220 @Portland L 76 - 82 51% +2  60% 9 - 10 2 - 4 D+ -6 B +6 C+ D- A- F -13 C+ D- F
 Wed, Jan 14 148 Loyola Marymount W 76 - 70 59% +1  52% 10 - 10 3 - 4 C+ +4 C +1 F A B+ B- +3 A+ F B+
 Sat, Jan 17 117 Pacific L 64 - 81 50% -6  5% 10 - 11 3 - 5 F+ -17 D+ -2 D+ B- C F -17 F+ B- F
 Wed, Jan 21 40 @St. Mary's L 51 - 81 7% -14  0% 10 - 12 3 - 6 D- -14 F+ -10 F F+ C+ D- -7 B- D- F
 Wed, Jan 28 148 @Loyola Marymount W 72 - 69 36% +0  47% 11 - 12 4 - 6 B- +7 B- +5 A B F B- +2 C C+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 226 @San Diego W 78 - 76 OT 53% -1  35% 12 - 12 5 - 6 C +1 F -10 D F C- A+ +11 B- B- A+
 Wed, Feb 4 126 Washington St. W 74 - 64 51% -4  19% 13 - 12 6 - 6 B +10 C- -2 F B+ A+ A+ +12 A+ C F
 Sat, Feb 7 12 Gonzaga L 61 - 81 7% -5  16% 13 - 13 6 - 7 C- -4 A- +9 A A- A F -19 C F F
 Thu, Feb 12 127 @San Francisco W 90 - 63 30% +17  99% 14 - 13 7 - 7 A+ +32 A+ +30 A+ A+ D+ A- +7 A+ D+ D
 Sun, Feb 15 122 @Seattle L 50 - 60 29% -11  0% 14 - 14 7 - 8 C- -4 F -11 D- D+ C+ B+ +6 A+ F C+
 Sat, Feb 21 281 Pepperdine W 83 - 73 82% -0  50% 15 - 14 8 - 8 C +0 C +1 C+ A- C- C -1 C C F+
 Wed, Feb 25 226 San Diego W 77 - 70 73%
 Sat, Feb 28 42 @Santa Clara L 68 - 84 7%
Totals 16 - 15 9 - 9 +0 C +0 F C- C C +0 B- B+ A-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C D C B- C- 35% 32% 46% C C D+ A C+ C- B+ B+ A- C B- C+ B B 42% 18% 41% D+ B- C- C C D C- C- D+
1.08 52% 39% 36% -1 0 1.01 27% 1.2 .33 18% .37 77% .28 1.08 55% 37% 31% -3 +1 0.97 32% 1.0 .32 15% .33 73% .27
Nov
3		 North Dakota St. D D+ A+ B- C+ 29% 17% 54% C C+ F F F C+ A+ C- A+ B+ C F A+ A- 44% 15% 41% F B B A+ A F A A A
1.02 58% 57% 36% +5 0 1.12 17% 0.6 .10 18% .48 73% .35 0.99 58% 50% 23% -5 +1 0.94 28% 0.7 .21 11% .19 64% .12
Nov
7		 Illinois-Chicago B- B+ A+ B A 27% 20% 54% D+ A A+ B A+ F A+ B+ A+ C D+ F C+ D 31% 10% 58% D D A- A+ A+ B F+ F F
1.10 64% 50% 36% +6 -1 1.12 54% 1.1 .57 30% .52 80% .42 1.06 60% 60% 32% +1 +1 1.06 30% 0.8 .24 20% .38 86% .33
Nov
12		 North Texas C+ F A+ B- D- 37% 9% 53% A- D+ F A+ D A+ A+ A+ A+ C B F D+ D- 56% 7% 37% F F+ F+ A- C A B- C+ B-
1.05 31% 50% 35% -8 +1 0.88 20% 1.3 .27 14% .52 82% .43 1.02 52% 67% 33% -2 +3 1.05 40% 0.8 .33 22% .33 69% .22
Nov
17		 Oregon B C- B- D D+ 36% 15% 49% A- C C- A+ B C- A+ A A+ F B C F D 45% 11% 45% D- D- F B+ D+ D F B+ F
1.10 53% 43% 30% -4 +1 0.96 27% 1.2 .33 18% .44 84% .37 1.28 52% 40% 43% +4 +2 1.13 44% 1.0 .44 15% .67 69% .46
Nov
21		 Evansville D- F A+ F F 41% 17% 41% B F B+ A+ A+ D A+ A+ A+ D F+ A+ B+ B 31% 29% 40% C+ B- F A- F D+ F F F
1.02 42% 63% 16% -14 +1 0.76 39% 1.5 .58 19% .42 83% .35 1.08 69% 25% 29% -3 -2 0.93 38% 0.9 .34 18% .63 80% .50
Nov
22		 Iona D- C+ F C+ D+ 47% 16% 36% B C- F+ F F D+ A+ F A+ C- A+ F F B- 43% 10% 48% F C+ F A+ C+ D D- F F
0.99 62% 11% 35% -2 +1 1.00 27% 0.7 .18 18% .51 58% .30 1.07 37% 50% 40% -4 +2 0.98 34% 0.7 .23 15% .30 82% .25
Nov
24		 Massachusetts F+ A+ D C B 22% 20% 59% D- B- D+ F F F D- C- D- C C+ C A+ A 50% 20% 30% D- A- F C F D B- A B+
0.98 90% 33% 33% +5 -1 1.11 24% 0.3 .07 24% .34 71% .24 1.10 56% 40% 20% -7 +1 0.90 41% 1.2 .49 17% .31 59% .18
Nov
29		 California Baptist C- F F A+ B+ 38% 15% 47% B- B+ F B- D- D- C- A+ B D D- A+ F F+ 54% 17% 29% D F+ A+ A A+ F D+ A C
1.03 44% 29% 45% +1 +1 1.06 14% 1.0 .14 18% .31 88% .27 1.11 61% 22% 40% +1 +2 1.08 27% 0.7 .19 10% .33 65% .22
Dec
3		 Vermont A- B A A+ A+ 22% 22% 56% D+ A+ D+ C- D+ D+ F A+ C- A- C- A+ C B+ 33% 29% 38% A A- F A+ B+ D+ B- D C+
1.29 64% 45% 50% +16 -1 1.32 23% 1.0 .23 14% .24 92% .23 0.93 63% 21% 33% -4 -1 0.92 34% 0.5 .16 14% .24 77% .19
Dec
6		 Southern Utah C A D- A+ A- 40% 24% 36% C- B+ D- A- C- F A- A A C+ B F A+ A 57% 8% 35% F B+ B F F C- C A B-
1.15 70% 33% 44% +9 0 1.20 24% 1.1 .28 18% .33 79% .26 1.00 52% 50% 22% -9 +3 0.90 26% 1.7 .43 18% .24 64% .16
Dec
13		 Montana St. D+ D- B- F F 40% 18% 43% C F F A+ A+ D+ A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ F A A+ 37% 18% 45% F+ A+ C F F B- C- A+ B-
1.04 50% 43% 18% -13 +1 0.78 18% 2.8 .50 17% .53 82% .43 0.89 28% 56% 27% -12 0 0.78 28% 1.4 .38 17% .28 60% .17
Dec
17		 Sam Houston St. D A+ F F C 24% 15% 62% C C F A+ F+ B- C- B C D+ B- B- C- B- 46% 12% 42% F C+ D- B- C- C F D+ F
1.01 92% 25% 26% -1 0 1.00 11% 1.8 .20 15% .30 74% .22 1.14 54% 33% 36% -1 +2 1.04 41% 0.9 .38 17% .37 74% .28
Dec
21		 Arizona St. A C+ A+ A- A 34% 20% 46% C+ A- A F F+ B+ A A+ A+ B B+ F A+ A 45% 20% 35% D+ A- A A A+ D+ D- F F
1.17 59% 50% 39% +6 0 1.14 40% 0.5 .20 18% .38 86% .33 1.12 52% 60% 22% -5 +1 0.94 24% 1.0 .24 13% .42 88% .36
Dec
28		 Santa Clara D- F F A+ C 25% 20% 55% F+ C- D+ C D+ D A+ F A+ F F C F F 29% 18% 53% B+ F B- A+ A D F B- F
0.93 36% 22% 42% -2 -1 0.95 26% 1.0 .26 23% .51 63% .32 1.49 93% 44% 58% +30 0 1.61 35% 0.9 .30 13% .40 71% .29
Dec
30		 San Francisco C F A+ A+ A+ 33% 18% 49% C+ A+ F A+ F D C A+ B+ A- B F A+ A+ 42% 20% 38% C A+ A+ F B D+ F+ C- F+
1.11 40% 75% 45% +9 0 1.20 5% 3.0 .14 16% .26 93% .25 0.98 53% 56% 12% -11 0 0.80 22% 1.4 .30 14% .41 73% .30
Jan
2		 Pacific F F F C F 28% 28% 45% C- F D A+ B F F F+ F F D+ D+ F F 33% 20% 47% C+ F C- C C F+ F C+ F
0.85 31% 23% 33% -12 -2 0.74 20% 1.6 .31 19% .22 64% .14 1.35 60% 44% 52% +15 0 1.31 36% 1.0 .36 16% .46 75% .34
Jan
4		 Washington St. D+ F A C D+ 33% 13% 53% B C- D- A+ B- C- A F+ B+ D F+ F A- B- 39% 17% 43% C C+ F D- F C+ F C+ F
1.03 47% 50% 33% -3 +1 0.98 20% 1.7 .33 15% .38 67% .25 1.24 72% 50% 30% +5 0 1.13 42% 1.1 .45 18% .41 73% .30
Jan
8		 Seattle C F F F F 43% 18% 39% B- F A A+ A+ C A+ A A+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ 53% 4% 43% F A+ F A+ A+ D+ F A+ D+
1.00 32% 13% 24% -22 +1 0.59 41% 1.7 .68 21% .54 79% .43 0.81 39% 50% 26% -15 +3 0.79 33% 0.1 .04 16% .42 54% .23
Jan
10		 Portland B C+ A C- B- 37% 24% 39% D+ C+ F B D- A- A+ B- A+ F D+ A+ B B- 40% 17% 43% C- C+ F C D- F F F F
1.15 59% 45% 33% +2 -1 1.04 22% 1.2 .26 14% .58 76% .44 1.24 63% 25% 30% -3 +1 0.98 35% 1.2 .42 11% .58 88% .51
Jan
14		 Loyola Marymount C F B+ F F 36% 19% 45% B- F C A+ A B+ A+ A+ A+ B- C- A+ A+ A+ 39% 28% 33% C A+ F+ F F B+ F F F
1.08 35% 44% 24% -14 0 0.74 31% 1.5 .46 13% .51 94% .47 1.00 61% 8% 27% -11 -1 0.78 32% 1.5 .47 21% .45 96% .43
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
17		 Pacific D+ D- A+ F C- 29% 33% 38% D+ D+ D- A+ B- C A+ A+ A+ F D- A+ F D- 55% 10% 35% F F+ B C B- F C A+ B-
1.03 50% 50% 25% -3 -2 0.90 19% 1.6 .30 15% .51 81% .42 1.31 64% 20% 44% +7 +3 1.22 31% 1.0 .31 11% .27 67% .18
Jan
21		 St. Mary's F+ F A F F 40% 26% 33% C F D+ F F+ C+ A+ B+ A+ D- C B- B- B 48% 13% 39% F+ B- D+ D- D- F F A D
0.81 35% 45% 14% -17 -1 0.67 21% 0.5 .10 14% .50 78% .39 1.29 59% 33% 33% -1 +2 1.04 39% 1.2 .48 11% .41 74% .30
Jan
28		 Loyola Marymount B- C- A+ A- A+ 33% 27% 40% C- A C A B F C- B+ C B- F+ F A- C- 25% 35% 40% A C B D C+ F A B+ A
1.09 53% 58% 39% +7 -1 1.13 32% 1.2 .39 24% .28 79% .22 1.05 69% 50% 29% +4 -3 1.04 24% 1.1 .26 14% .19 64% .12
Jan
31		 San Diego F F C+ B+ D- 44% 13% 44% B D F F F C- B+ F+ B- A+ C F+ A B 34% 22% 43% C B- C A- B- A+ B C- B
0.95 46% 43% 38% -2 +1 1.00 21% 0.9 .18 20% .41 67% .27 0.93 60% 46% 28% -1 -1 0.98 30% 0.8 .25 24% .19 75% .15
Feb
4		 Washington St. C- F+ F F F 53% 20% 27% B+ F B B- B+ A+ A+ C A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 32% 6% 62% D A+ A+ F C F F D+ F
1.09 48% 27% 20% -13 +1 0.78 32% 1.2 .37 7% .43 74% .32 0.95 33% 0% 28% -16 +1 0.72 21% 1.4 .28 13% .44 77% .34
Feb
7		 Gonzaga A- F B+ A+ A+ 28% 31% 41% C- A D+ A+ A- A A B A F C- F+ B+ C+ 52% 28% 20% D- C D+ F F F C F F+
1.10 36% 42% 50% +5 -2 1.08 20% 1.6 .32 16% .39 72% .28 1.46 65% 50% 30% +6 0 1.14 38% 1.8 .69 4% .30 88% .26
Feb
12		 San Francisco A+ A F A+ A+ 37% 21% 42% C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ A- B A+ A+ A+ 39% 16% 45% C- A+ F+ B D+ D C- B+ C+
1.48 69% 22% 56% +14 0 1.30 42% 1.9 .79 15% .52 89% .46 1.04 53% 25% 23% -12 +1 0.80 38% 1.0 .38 13% .34 67% .23
Feb
15		 Seattle F C- F D- F+ 33% 20% 47% C- D- F A+ D+ C+ F F F B+ A+ A+ C- A+ 34% 27% 39% A A+ D+ F F C+ F A D-
0.78 53% 11% 29% -11 0 0.80 18% 1.3 .24 20% .22 55% .12 0.94 40% 25% 35% -9 -1 0.82 28% 1.2 .33 19% .40 62% .25
Feb
21		 Pepperdine C C F A C+ 37% 15% 48% D+ C+ A+ D+ A- C- C F D+ C D- C- B C- 28% 26% 46% B+ C A+ F C F+ F A+ F+
1.15 58% 25% 40% +2 +1 1.08 45% 1.0 .45 17% .27 63% .17 1.01 64% 38% 30% -1 -1 0.98 12% 2.3 .26 14% .42 65% .27



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 6.1 69.8 5.3 81.2 4th
5th 13.3 13.3 5th
6th 5.5 5.5 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 24.9 69.8 5.3 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 5.3% 0.2% 0.2% 12.3 0.0 0.0 5.3
9-9 69.8% 0.1% 0.1% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 69.8
8-10 24.9% 0.1% 0.1% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 24.9
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 13.1 99.9 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.3%
Lose Out 14.5%