Oregon St.
West Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.6 #184
Expected Predictive Rating +0.4 #156
Pace 64.6 #294
Improvement -1.3 #247

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #189 C C C- A- C
Defense #196 C+ C D+ D+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #283 1.04 #314 -4.3 #322
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #224 0.84 #67 -0.3 #190
Three Pointers 47% #55 1.04 #154 +3.7 #61
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #198 -0.9 #199
Freethrows 0.37 #16 77% #30 0.28 #9
Second Chance 24.1% #340 1.24 #10 0.30 #205
Turnovers 17.8% #249
Total Offense -0.8 #189

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #79 1.12 #126 -1.5 #228
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #290 0.77 #202 +1.2 #92
Three Pointers 40% #202 0.96 #102 +1.5 #124
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #140 +1.2 #140
Freethrows 0.32 #256 74% #282 0.24 #271
Second Chance 32.9% #279 0.92 #50 0.30 #149
Turnovers 14.8% #297
Total Defense -0.8 #196

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.1% #183 1.4% #301
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.9% #209 -3.6% #103
Possession Length 18.2 #269 17.3 #192
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #346 0.18 #225
Improvement -1.6 #279 +0.3 #172

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.7 12.7 n/a
.500 or above 19.4% 33.6% 7.1%
.500 or above in Conference 15.9% 28.9% 4.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.0% 0.6%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Washington St. (Home) - 46.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 51 - 8
Quad 38 - 69 - 14
Quad 46 - 315 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 139 North Dakota St. W 67 - 65 51% +1  1 - 0 +0 -3 C F C+ +4 B A F
 Fri, Nov 7 135 Illinois-Chicago W 76 - 73 49% +3  2 - 0 +2 +5 A- A+ F -3 D- A+ B-
 Wed, Nov 12 147 North Texas W 66 - 64 52% -6  3 - 0 -0 +5 D+ D A+ -5 D- C A-
 Mon, Nov 17 82 @Oregon L 75 - 87 15% -7  3 - 1 -2 +8 C B- C- -11 D C- D
 Fri, Nov 21 269 Evansville L 69 - 73 67% -4  3 - 2 -10 -2 F A+ D -8 B- F+ D+
 Sat, Nov 22 231 Iona L 84 - 91 2OT 59% +5  3 - 3 -11 -4 C F C- -6 C+ C D
 Mon, Nov 24 173 Massachusetts L 65 - 73 48% -2  3 - 4 -9 -4 B- F F -5 B F D
 Sat, Nov 29 134 California Baptist L 69 - 75 49% -2  3 - 5 -7 -0 B F+ D- -7 D- A+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 211 Vermont W 80 - 58 67% +16  4 - 5 +16 +13 A+ D+ D+ +5 A- B C-
 Sat, Dec 6 284 Southern Utah W 81 - 70 79% +11  5 - 5 +1 +3 B+ D+ F -2 B- F C
 Sat, Dec 13 166 Montana St. W 67 - 57 57% +4  6 - 5 +7 -2 F A+ C- +9 A+ D- C+
 Wed, Dec 17 108 Sam Houston St. L 75 - 85 41% -8  6 - 6 -9 -3 C F+ B+ -6 C C- C
 Sun, Dec 21 77 @Arizona St. W 78 - 75 13% -1  7 - 6 +14 +12 A- F+ B +1 A A+ D+
 Sun, Dec 28 46 Santa Clara L 64 - 102 17% -22  7 - 7 0 - 1 -29 -4 C D+ D -26 F A+ D-
 Tue, Dec 30 97 San Francisco W 70 - 62 35% +3  8 - 7 1 - 1 +10 +5 A+ F D +6 A+ B+ D+
 Fri, Jan 2 125 @Pacific L 53 - 84 25% -17  8 - 8 1 - 2 -26 -11 F B- D- -19 F C F+
 Sun, Jan 4 122 @Washington St. L 67 - 81 25% -11  8 - 9 1 - 3 -8 -0 C- C+ C -9 C+ F C
 Thu, Jan 8 124 Seattle W 68 - 55 47% +2  9 - 9 2 - 3 +12 +3 F A+ C+ +10 A+ A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 10 232 @Portland L 76 - 82 48% +2  9 - 10 2 - 4 -7 +8 C+ D B+ -15 C+ D- F
 Wed, Jan 14 170 Loyola Marymount W 76 - 70 59% +1  10 - 10 3 - 4 +2 +4 F A A- -1 A+ F B+
 Sat, Jan 17 125 Pacific L 64 - 81 47% -6  10 - 11 3 - 5 -18 -1 D+ C+ C+ -19 F+ B- F
 Wed, Jan 21 42 @St. Mary's L 51 - 81 7% -14  10 - 12 3 - 6 -15 -8 F F C+ -10 C+ F+ F
 Wed, Jan 28 170 @Loyola Marymount W 72 - 69 36% +0  11 - 12 4 - 6 +5 +7 A+ B F -2 C C+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 202 @San Diego W 78 - 76 OT 42% -1  12 - 12 5 - 6 +2 -6 D+ F C +8 B- B A+
 Wed, Feb 4 122 Washington St. L 74 - 75 46%
 Sat, Feb 7 11 Gonzaga L 65 - 83 4%
 Thu, Feb 12 97 @San Francisco L 65 - 75 18%
 Sun, Feb 15 124 @Seattle L 63 - 70 26%
 Sat, Feb 21 283 Pepperdine W 73 - 65 78%
 Wed, Feb 25 202 San Diego W 77 - 73 64%
 Sat, Feb 28 46 @Santa Clara L 67 - 83 6%
Totals 14 - 17 7 - 11 -2 -1 C C C- -1 C+ C D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.3 3.4 2.1 0.3 0.0 6.0 4th
5th 0.1 4.4 7.0 0.5 0.0 12.0 5th
6th 0.0 2.0 13.0 2.4 0.0 17.4 6th
7th 0.3 11.3 9.9 0.2 21.7 7th
8th 0.0 4.1 17.0 2.1 23.3 8th
9th 1.1 10.1 4.7 0.1 16.0 9th
10th 1.3 1.8 0.0 3.1 10th
11th 0.5 0.0 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 3.0 16.4 35.0 29.7 12.9 2.7 0.3 0.0 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.3
10-8 2.7% 0.2% 0.2% 12.0 0.0 2.7
9-9 12.9% 0.1% 0.1% 13.0 0.0 12.9
8-10 29.7% 29.7
7-11 35.0% 35.0
6-12 16.4% 16.4
5-13 3.0% 3.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.7 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.6%