Queens
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.0 #208
Expected Predictive Rating -3.3 #215
Pace 71.0 #121
Improvement -1.1 #237

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #100 C+ C+ C+ C B-
Defense #333 D C- D D+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #200 1.21 #107 +0.6 #155
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #308 0.79 #116 -1.7 #270
Three Pointers 48% #46 1.02 #189 +3.5 #65
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #117 +2.4 #111
Freethrows 0.29 #230 75% #93 0.22 #182
Second Chance 30.8% #171 1.10 #82 0.34 #120
Turnovers 16.0% #135
Total Offense +2.8 #100

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #61 1.18 #216 -3.2 #290
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #256 0.77 #217 +0.6 #142
Three Pointers 39% #248 1.17 #351 -1.9 #274
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #310 -4.5 #317
Freethrows 0.33 #283 73% #211 0.24 #281
Second Chance 34.1% #311 1.01 #152 0.34 #258
Turnovers 14.3% #318
Total Defense -5.8 #333

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.4% #87 1.3% #292
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.5% #134 7.1% #312
Possession Length 16.3 #81 17.9 #287
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #213 0.18 #212
Improvement -2.0 #305 +0.9 #125

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.3% 16.1% 12.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.2 15.6
.500 or above 79.1% 85.1% 58.7%
.500 or above in Conference 99.5% 99.9% 98.1%
Conference Champion 10.9% 13.1% 3.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.8% 1.5% 2.9%
First Round14.5% 15.5% 11.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Jacksonville (Home) - 77.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 5
Quad 20 - 10 - 6
Quad 32 - 42 - 10
Quad 415 - 517 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 123 Winthrop L 74 - 81 30% -2  0 - 1 -5 -1 D B F -3 A- F C-
 Sat, Nov 8 32 @Villanova L 74 - 94 4% -12  0 - 2 -3 +11 A+ F D- -14 C+ F D-
 Tue, Nov 11 113 @Duquesne L 81 - 87 OT 19% -9  0 - 3 +0 -4 C- F D+ +5 B- B+ C
 Sat, Nov 15 276 Sacred Heart W 81 - 64 73% +13  1 - 3 +8 +2 A- C- F +6 B- A+ D+
 Thu, Nov 20 312 UNC Greensboro W 101 - 94 80% +8  2 - 3 -5 +23 A+ B A- -28 F F F
 Sun, Nov 23 164 @Furman L 79 - 90 29% -11  2 - 4 -8 +16 C A- A+ -26 F B F
 Fri, Nov 28 25 @Virginia L 69 - 94 3% -18  2 - 5 -6 +10 C- A+ C- -18 F B- D
 Wed, Dec 3 363 Gardner-Webb W 107 - 74 95% +14  3 - 5 +12 +19 A+ A- C -9 A+ F F
 Fri, Dec 12 359 South Carolina St. W 102 - 78 91% +19  4 - 5 +6 +19 B- C+ A+ -13 D F D
 Sun, Dec 14 75 @Wake Forest L 73 - 111 10% -19  4 - 6 -27 +4 B D+ B -30 F D- C-
 Tue, Dec 16 22 @Arkansas L 80 - 108 3% -20  4 - 7 -9 +4 C+ C+ F+ -9 D- F A
 Mon, Dec 29 28 @Auburn L 65 - 106 3% -30  4 - 8 -22 -5 F B- C -15 F C C
 Thu, Jan 1 265 Eastern Kentucky W 91 - 89 72% +1  5 - 8 1 - 0 -7 +11 C A A+ -18 F C+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 305 Bellarmine W 98 - 76 78% +10  6 - 8 2 - 0 +11 +12 B- B- C- -1 D- A B
 Thu, Jan 8 295 @Jacksonville W 77 - 51 57% +15  7 - 8 3 - 0 +21 +9 A+ F C- +14 A D+ B
 Sat, Jan 10 351 @North Florida W 89 - 82 74% +2  8 - 8 4 - 0 -3 +2 D B+ C -5 D+ C+ F
 Thu, Jan 15 223 @Florida Gulf Coast W 85 - 74 40% +6  9 - 8 5 - 0 +11 +10 C- C A+ +1 A+ D+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 329 @Stetson W 87 - 81 67% +8  10 - 8 6 - 0 -1 +11 C D A+ -13 F D+ D
 Wed, Jan 21 326 North Alabama W 87 - 62 83% +10  11 - 8 7 - 0 +12 +10 B+ B D +3 C+ B- A+
 Sat, Jan 24 325 @West Georgia L 66 - 74 66% -4  11 - 9 7 - 1 -15 -8 F B- D- -8 F B+ C
 Wed, Jan 28 219 Central Arkansas L 90 - 100 63% +1  11 - 10 7 - 2 -16 +9 A+ F+ B+ -25 F D F+
 Sat, Jan 31 305 @Bellarmine L 75 - 78 59% -0  11 - 11 7 - 3 -8 +1 F B+ B -10 C- F C
 Thu, Feb 5 295 Jacksonville W 77 - 69 77%
 Sat, Feb 7 351 North Florida W 97 - 84 88%
 Wed, Feb 11 175 Austin Peay W 80 - 79 54%
 Sat, Feb 14 178 Lipscomb W 82 - 81 55%
 Wed, Feb 18 326 @North Alabama W 80 - 76 66%
 Sat, Feb 21 325 West Georgia W 86 - 76 83%
 Wed, Feb 25 265 @Eastern Kentucky L 82 - 83 49%
 Sat, Feb 28 219 @Central Arkansas L 79 - 82 40%
Totals 16 - 14 12 - 6 -3 +3 C+ C+ C+ -6 D C- D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.3 5.9 2.7 10.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 4.8 12.4 6.9 0.4 24.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 6.0 15.5 8.5 0.3 30.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 6.2 12.6 7.3 0.8 27.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 2.5 0.7 4.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.1 0.5 2.8 9.4 19.5 27.7 23.9 13.2 3.1 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 85.8% 2.7    1.6 1.0 0.1
14-4 44.9% 5.9    1.6 3.1 1.0 0.1
13-5 9.4% 2.3    0.2 0.8 1.0 0.3
12-6 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 10.9% 10.9 3.5 5.0 2.1 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 3.1% 26.9% 26.9% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 2.3
14-4 13.2% 21.5% 21.5% 14.8 0.0 0.7 1.8 0.2 10.3
13-5 23.9% 18.8% 18.8% 15.2 0.3 2.9 1.3 19.4
12-6 27.7% 14.4% 14.4% 15.5 0.1 1.7 2.2 23.7
11-7 19.5% 10.9% 10.9% 15.8 0.5 1.6 17.4
10-8 9.4% 9.3% 9.3% 16.0 0.0 0.8 8.5
9-9 2.8% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.1 2.6
8-10 0.5% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.5
7-11 0.1% 0.1
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 15.3% 15.3% 0.0% 15.3 84.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 13.8 2.4 29.2 53.6 14.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.0%