Saint Joseph's
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.6#86
Expected Predictive Rating+4.5#106
Pace71.0#117
Improvement+4.2#14

Offense
Total Offense+2.4#113
First Shot+3.5#78
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#252
Layup/Dunks+2.2#104
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#357
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#57
Freethrows+1.1#112
Improvement+3.5#12

Defense
Total Defense+4.2#74
First Shot+4.5#50
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#214
Layups/Dunks+0.0#163
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#90
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#51
Freethrows+0.2#175
Improvement+0.8#131
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.5% 11.9% 6.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.8% 0.9% 0.1%
Average Seed 11.4 11.2 11.6
.500 or above 97.3% 97.7% 88.5%
.500 or above in Conference 93.4% 93.6% 87.2%
Conference Champion 23.4% 23.8% 13.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four0.6% 0.6% 0.1%
First Round11.4% 11.5% 6.8%
Second Round3.1% 3.2% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 0.8% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Delaware St. (Home) - 96.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 24 - 35 - 5
Quad 38 - 513 - 10
Quad 48 - 122 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 318   Navy W 70-63 95%     1 - 0 -4.9 -10.9 +5.8
  Nov 08, 2024 219   Central Connecticut St. L 67-73 88%     1 - 1 -12.1 -5.1 -7.1
  Nov 12, 2024 52   Villanova W 83-76 47%     2 - 1 +14.4 +3.2 +10.7
  Nov 15, 2024 292   @ Penn W 86-69 84%     3 - 1 +13.0 +15.8 -1.6
  Nov 21, 2024 18   Texas Tech W 78-77 21%     4 - 1 +15.9 +11.1 +4.8
  Nov 22, 2024 33   Texas L 58-67 28%     4 - 2 +3.6 -6.3 +9.6
  Nov 26, 2024 362   Coppin St. W 83-54 98%     5 - 2 +8.9 +7.0 +2.8
  Dec 03, 2024 110   Princeton L 69-77 72%     5 - 3 -7.5 -6.3 -1.1
  Dec 07, 2024 165   La Salle W 82-68 75%     6 - 3 1 - 0 +13.6 +10.3 +3.4
  Dec 10, 2024 117   College of Charleston L 75-78 74%     6 - 4 -3.1 -2.3 -0.6
  Dec 18, 2024 232   American W 84-57 89%     7 - 4 +20.3 +10.4 +10.9
  Dec 21, 2024 138   Virginia Tech W 82-62 69%     8 - 4 +21.3 +14.7 +7.7
  Dec 28, 2024 327   Delaware St. W 83-64 96%    
  Dec 31, 2024 203   Massachusetts W 80-69 86%    
  Jan 03, 2025 137   @ Saint Louis W 78-76 58%    
  Jan 08, 2025 163   @ Duquesne W 70-66 63%    
  Jan 11, 2025 121   Loyola Chicago W 75-68 75%    
  Jan 17, 2025 57   Virginia Commonwealth W 70-69 51%    
  Jan 21, 2025 122   @ Davidson W 72-71 54%    
  Jan 24, 2025 48   @ Dayton L 68-75 25%    
  Jan 29, 2025 163   Duquesne W 73-63 82%    
  Feb 01, 2025 121   @ Loyola Chicago W 72-71 53%    
  Feb 07, 2025 137   Saint Louis W 81-73 77%    
  Feb 12, 2025 165   La Salle W 80-70 82%    
  Feb 15, 2025 82   @ George Mason L 67-70 38%    
  Feb 19, 2025 136   @ George Washington W 76-74 58%    
  Feb 22, 2025 216   Richmond W 79-66 87%    
  Feb 26, 2025 87   St. Bonaventure W 70-67 61%    
  Mar 01, 2025 178   @ Fordham W 77-73 66%    
  Mar 05, 2025 93   Rhode Island W 79-75 65%    
  Mar 08, 2025 165   @ La Salle W 77-73 64%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 12 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.6 6.9 6.0 3.0 1.0 23.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.8 6.0 7.1 3.4 0.7 0.1 19.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 5.5 5.9 2.3 0.2 0.0 15.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 4.1 5.3 1.8 0.2 12.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.5 4.7 1.8 0.2 9.4 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 3.7 1.9 0.2 6.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.3 1.9 0.2 0.0 4.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 1.8 0.4 0.0 3.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.4 0.6 0.0 2.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.1 1.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.9 11th
12th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.8 3.6 6.0 9.2 12.5 14.8 15.4 14.1 10.5 6.8 3.1 1.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.0    1.0 0.0
17-1 98.1% 3.0    2.8 0.3 0.0
16-2 89.1% 6.0    4.6 1.3 0.1
15-3 65.8% 6.9    3.8 2.6 0.5 0.0
14-4 32.8% 4.6    1.4 2.0 1.0 0.2 0.0
13-5 9.5% 1.5    0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 23.2% 23.2 13.8 6.7 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.0% 51.0% 29.8% 21.1% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.5 30.1%
17-1 3.1% 33.6% 26.0% 7.6% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.0 2.0 10.3%
16-2 6.8% 24.7% 22.1% 2.6% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 0.2 5.1 3.4%
15-3 10.5% 20.0% 19.4% 0.6% 11.2 0.0 0.1 1.4 0.6 0.0 8.4 0.8%
14-4 14.1% 15.5% 15.3% 0.1% 11.4 0.0 1.2 1.0 0.0 11.9 0.2%
13-5 15.4% 11.5% 11.5% 0.0% 11.6 0.0 0.7 1.0 0.0 13.6 0.0%
12-6 14.8% 7.7% 7.7% 11.8 0.3 0.8 0.1 13.7
11-7 12.5% 5.1% 5.1% 11.9 0.1 0.5 0.0 11.8
10-8 9.2% 3.4% 3.4% 12.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 8.9
9-9 6.0% 1.8% 1.8% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.9
8-10 3.6% 1.2% 1.2% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5
7-11 1.8% 0.3% 0.3% 14.0 0.0 1.8
6-12 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.7
5-13 0.3% 0.3
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 11.5% 10.8% 0.7% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 5.7 4.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 88.5 0.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 5.0 6.5 32.3 35.5 16.1 3.2 3.2 3.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 75.0% 9.4 5.0 40.0 25.0 5.0