South Alabama
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.4 #200
Expected Predictive Rating +1.0 #152
Pace 61.8 #346
Improvement -1.1 #246

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #241 D- C- A- C- B
Defense #157 C D- C A+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 48% #5 1.08 #271 +3.7 #65
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #208 0.77 #155 -0.4 #198
Three Pointers 33% #332 0.79 #362 -7.9 #353
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #309 -4.6 #308
Freethrows 17.8 #159 67% #310 12.0 #212
Second Chance 25.2% #319 1.15 #66 0.29 #247
Turnovers 13.9% #37
Total Offense -2.4 #241

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 22% #364 1.29 #320 +8.6 #6
2 Pt. Jumpers 8% #365 0.91 #347 +4.2 #1
Three Pointers 71% #1 0.93 #88 -12.4 #365
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #162 +0.4 #159
Freethrows 9.3 #1 81% #364 7.6 #364
Second Chance 35.1% #322 1.12 #271 0.39 #321
Turnovers 16.7% #179
Total Defense +0.1 #157

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.9% #66 0.8% #237
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -10.8% #335 -1.4% #151
Possession Length 17.7 #217 18.7 #345
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #258 0.13 #57
Improvement -2.1 #308 +1.1 #111

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.6% 6.9% 3.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 14.1 14.3
.500 or above 91.7% 95.9% 84.4%
.500 or above in Conference 74.9% 84.1% 59.2%
Conference Champion 4.1% 5.9% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round5.6% 6.9% 3.3%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgia Southern (Home) - 63.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 35 - 75 - 9
Quad 413 - 318 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 180 @Toledo W 76 - 74 35%  +9  1 - 0 +4 +9 B+ B- B- -5 F C+ B
 Thu, Nov 6 346 Alcorn St. W 76 - 70 88%  -3  2 - 0 -9 -7 D+ D F -3 F A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 13 323 Central Michigan W 66 - 64 77%  +3  3 - 0 -8 -3 F B- A- -5 B F C
 Sat, Nov 15 364 Coppin St. W 72 - 62 94%  +5  4 - 0 -10 -5 F F B -5 B+ F D-
 Wed, Nov 19 208 @Jacksonville St. W 71 - 65 39%  -6  5 - 0 +6 +4 C C A+ +3 C- B- C+
 Fri, Nov 21 113 @UAB L 72 - 80 19%  -5  5 - 1 -1 +9 B- D+ A+ -11 F C- B
 Sun, Nov 30 315 @Texas San Antonio W 82 - 58 65%  +14  6 - 1 +18 +8 B- C C +10 A- C F
 Tue, Dec 2 136 New Mexico St. W 77 - 75 35%  -1  7 - 1 +3 +8 D C- A+ -5 C+ C A+
 Fri, Dec 5 128 @East Tennessee St. L 65 - 91 24%  -5  7 - 2 -21 -4 C F A -17 C+ F F
 Sun, Dec 14 133 North Texas L 57 - 58 46%  -4  7 - 3 -2 -6 F A- A+ +4 A+ F A-
 Wed, Dec 17 356 @Louisiana Monroe W 96 - 92 2OT 79%  -7  8 - 3 1 - 0 -7 -3 D C F -5 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 268 @Texas St. L 65 - 67 53%  +6  8 - 4 1 - 1 -5 -4 F D- B -1 A- F C
 Wed, Dec 31 310 @Louisiana W 63 - 58 63%  +2  9 - 4 2 - 1 -1 +6 D+ B- D- -6 C- F F
 Sat, Jan 3 137 @Troy L 49 - 59 25%  -5  9 - 5 2 - 2 -6 -12 F D C+ +4 A C D+
 Sat, Jan 10 213 Georgia Southern W 75 - 71 63% 
 Thu, Jan 15 126 Arkansas St. L 73 - 74 45% 
 Sat, Jan 17 310 Louisiana W 67 - 57 81% 
 Thu, Jan 22 204 @James Madison L 67 - 70 39% 
 Sat, Jan 24 159 @Marshall L 68 - 73 32% 
 Thu, Jan 29 270 Coastal Carolina W 70 - 63 74% 
 Sat, Jan 31 304 Georgia St. W 72 - 63 79% 
 Wed, Feb 4 224 @Appalachian St. L 61 - 63 42% 
 Sat, Feb 7 179 Buffalo W 71 - 69 58% 
 Thu, Feb 12 201 @Southern Miss L 67 - 70 39% 
 Sat, Feb 14 126 @Arkansas St. L 70 - 77 25% 
 Thu, Feb 19 268 Texas St. W 70 - 63 74% 
 Sat, Feb 21 137 Troy L 67 - 68 47% 
 Wed, Feb 25 356 Louisiana Monroe W 80 - 66 91% 
 Fri, Feb 27 201 Southern Miss W 70 - 67 60% 
Totals 17 - 12 10 - 8 -2 -2 D- C- A- +0 C D- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.7 0.7 0.1 4.1 1st
2nd 0.2 2.4 3.2 1.1 0.1 6.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.5 5.2 1.7 0.1 9.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.5 6.4 3.8 0.3 11.9 4th
5th 0.5 5.8 5.8 0.7 0.0 12.8 5th
6th 0.2 3.9 7.7 1.8 0.1 13.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.9 7.2 3.4 0.1 12.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 4.9 4.4 0.4 0.0 10.4 8th
9th 0.2 2.4 4.3 0.8 0.0 7.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.8 1.2 0.0 5.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.6 1.2 0.1 3.2 11th
12th 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.1 1.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.1 3.7 7.3 12.7 16.7 18.8 16.9 12.3 6.5 2.8 0.8 0.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-3 89.0% 0.7    0.5 0.2 0.0
14-4 58.9% 1.7    0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 21.4% 1.4    0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.1% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.1% 4.1 1.6 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.8% 36.4% 36.4% 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.5
14-4 2.8% 28.8% 28.8% 13.6 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 2.0
13-5 6.5% 21.1% 21.1% 13.9 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.3 5.1
12-6 12.3% 10.6% 10.6% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.0 11.0
11-7 16.9% 5.8% 5.8% 14.4 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.0 15.9
10-8 18.8% 2.2% 2.2% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 18.4
9-9 16.7% 1.5% 1.5% 14.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 16.5
8-10 12.7% 0.6% 0.6% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.6
7-11 7.3% 0.4% 0.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 7.3
6-12 3.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.7
5-13 1.1% 1.1
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.6% 5.6% 0.0% 14.1 94.4 0.0%