South Alabama
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.1#156
Expected Predictive Rating-0.5#171
Pace62.6#333
Improvement+2.7#47

Offense
Total Offense-0.7#192
First Shot+0.9#148
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#288
Layup/Dunks+1.8#121
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#310
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#115
Freethrows-0.4#204
Improvement+1.5#80

Defense
Total Defense+0.8#142
First Shot+0.0#172
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#109
Layups/Dunks+10.7#4
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#1
3 Pt Jumpshots-16.7#364
Freethrows+2.3#40
Improvement+1.2#92
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.3% 10.7% 7.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.7 14.1
.500 or above 90.9% 95.2% 84.2%
.500 or above in Conference 86.8% 92.7% 77.7%
Conference Champion 13.7% 18.3% 6.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 0.8%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round9.3% 10.7% 7.0%
Second Round0.7% 0.9% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgia St. (Away) - 61.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 34 - 35 - 7
Quad 413 - 518 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 237   Central Michigan L 70-74 76%     0 - 1 -11.2 -2.1 -9.2
  Nov 08, 2024 238   @ Nicholls St. W 70-64 55%     1 - 1 +4.7 +2.9 +2.3
  Nov 12, 2024 28   @ Mississippi L 54-64 7%     1 - 2 +6.5 -7.9 +13.7
  Nov 16, 2024 235   Mercer W 75-66 76%     2 - 2 +1.9 -0.7 +2.7
  Nov 25, 2024 300   Incarnate Word W 84-63 84%     3 - 2 +10.5 +9.2 +2.8
  Nov 26, 2024 331   Western Illinois L 63-64 89%     3 - 3 -14.1 -5.5 -8.7
  Nov 29, 2024 337   Alcorn St. W 74-65 OT 90%     4 - 3 -5.1 -1.5 -3.0
  Dec 08, 2024 152   Jacksonville St. W 76-74 61%     5 - 3 -0.8 +4.8 -5.4
  Dec 15, 2024 356   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 81-72 83%     6 - 3 -1.0 +7.6 -8.3
  Dec 16, 2024 66   @ TCU L 49-58 15%     6 - 4 +2.0 -6.9 +7.5
  Dec 21, 2024 135   James Madison W 77-49 56%     7 - 4 1 - 0 +26.5 +10.4 +19.0
  Jan 02, 2025 272   @ Georgia St. W 70-67 61%    
  Jan 04, 2025 242   @ Georgia Southern W 72-70 56%    
  Jan 09, 2025 105   Arkansas St. L 69-70 45%    
  Jan 11, 2025 308   Old Dominion W 75-64 85%    
  Jan 15, 2025 282   Southern Miss W 72-62 82%    
  Jan 18, 2025 119   Troy W 68-67 51%    
  Jan 23, 2025 334   @ Louisiana Monroe W 70-62 76%    
  Jan 25, 2025 119   @ Troy L 64-70 30%    
  Jan 30, 2025 334   Louisiana Monroe W 73-59 89%    
  Feb 01, 2025 286   @ Louisiana W 70-66 64%    
  Feb 05, 2025 277   @ Coastal Carolina W 66-63 62%    
  Feb 13, 2025 199   Marshall W 73-68 68%    
  Feb 15, 2025 126   Texas St. W 67-66 53%    
  Feb 19, 2025 105   @ Arkansas St. L 66-73 25%    
  Feb 22, 2025 126   @ Texas St. L 64-69 33%    
  Feb 26, 2025 282   @ Southern Miss W 69-65 63%    
  Feb 28, 2025 286   Louisiana W 73-63 81%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.1 4.3 2.4 0.7 0.1 13.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.7 6.2 4.3 1.0 0.1 14.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.6 6.7 4.4 0.8 0.0 14.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 6.1 5.2 0.9 0.0 13.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 4.8 5.2 1.2 0.0 12.1 5th
6th 0.2 3.1 5.1 1.5 0.1 0.0 9.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 4.1 1.6 0.1 7.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.7 1.9 0.2 5.2 8th
9th 0.1 1.3 1.7 0.3 0.0 3.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.4 0.0 2.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.0 1.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.7 3.8 6.6 10.2 13.6 15.7 16.1 13.2 9.3 5.4 2.5 0.7 0.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7 0.0
16-2 96.9% 2.4    2.2 0.3 0.0
15-3 80.3% 4.3    2.7 1.4 0.1 0.0
14-4 44.6% 4.1    1.5 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 13.5% 1.8    0.3 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.7% 13.7 7.4 4.3 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 31.4% 31.4% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.7% 34.9% 34.9% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
16-2 2.5% 27.9% 27.9% 12.7 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 1.8
15-3 5.4% 21.8% 21.8% 13.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 4.2
14-4 9.3% 17.1% 17.1% 13.5 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.1 7.7
13-5 13.2% 14.4% 14.4% 13.9 0.0 0.6 1.0 0.3 0.0 11.3
12-6 16.1% 9.6% 9.6% 14.2 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.0 14.5
11-7 15.7% 7.0% 7.0% 14.4 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 14.6
10-8 13.6% 4.2% 4.2% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 13.1
9-9 10.2% 2.6% 2.6% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 10.0
8-10 6.6% 1.9% 1.9% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.5
7-11 3.8% 1.1% 1.1% 15.6 0.0 0.0 3.7
6-12 1.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.7
5-13 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.7
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 9.3% 9.3% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.7 3.6 2.0 0.3 90.7 0.0%