South Alabama
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.4 182
Results Rating +1.2 141
Pace 63.3 324
Improvement +3.5 59

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 206 C- D+ A- D+ B-
Defense C 172 C D+ C+ A- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% 20 C- 56% 212 +3.6 60
2 Pt. Jumpers 39% 158 C- 37% 201 -0.6 215
Three Pointers 35% 309 D 31% 311 -4.9 326
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.7 90 D+ -2.6 272
1st FG Attempt C- 0.98 233
Second Chance D- 23.3% 345 B+ 1.16 38 D+ 0.27 266
Turnovers A- 13.1% 14
Freethrows C 0.31 169 F+ 65% 355 D+ 0.20 249
Total Offense C- -1.3 206

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots F 31% 357 D 14.0% 328
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 27% 145 C+ 4.6% 150
Three Pointers B 90% 51 D 1.5% 315
Total F+ 45% 352 F+ 7.8% 346

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 22% 365 D 64% 322 -8.7 5
2 Pt. Jumpers 8% 365 C+ 37% 127 -4.9 1
Three Pointers 70% 1 B- 32% 94 +13.0 365
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.4 244 C+ -0.9 144
1st FG Attempt C 1.01 159
Second Chance C- 31.9% 243 D+ 1.10 282 D+ 0.35 285
Turnovers C+ 17.4% 139
Freethrows A- 0.23 14 D+ 74% 287 A- 0.17 16
Total Defense C -0.1 172

Assists Blocks
Close Shots F 64% 363 C+ 12.2% 121
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F 65% 364 D+ 3.5% 259
Three Pointers F+ 92% 358 D+ 0.4% 285
Total F 80% 365 D- 3.2% 341

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.6 203 18.3 320
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 224 0.16 124
Improvement +2.4 #86 +1.1 #126

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 207 185 160
Results Rating Rank 170 151 112
Conference Record 11 - 7 12 - 6 12 - 6
Conference Finish 4 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 14
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19% 20% 10%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.3 14.7
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 68% 73% 3%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round19% 20% 10%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Louisiana Monroe (Home) - 92.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 38 - 58 - 7
Quad 413 - 320 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 161 @Toledo W 76 - 74 34% +9  99% 1 - 0 C+ +5 B +6 B+ B- C+ C -1 F+ C+ B-
 Thu, Nov 6 345 Alcorn St. W 76 - 70 90% -3  22% 2 - 0 D -10 F+ -9 D+ C- D C -1 F A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 13 270 Central Michigan W 66 - 64 68% +3  90% 3 - 0 C- -4 D+ -4 F A- A- C -0 A- F C
 Sat, Nov 15 363 Coppin St. W 72 - 62 93% +5  81% 4 - 0 D -8 D -6 F+ F+ B+ C- -2 A- F D-
 Wed, Nov 19 196 @Jacksonville St. W 71 - 65 41% -6  13% 5 - 0 B- +7 C +1 C- C- A+ B+ +6 C+ C+ C+
 Fri, Nov 21 121 @UAB L 72 - 80 25% -5  8% 5 - 1 C- -2 B+ +8 C+ D A+ F -11 F D+ B
 Sun, Nov 30 334 @Texas San Antonio W 82 - 58 75% +14  97% 6 - 1 A- +16 C+ +2 C- C C A+ +13 A C+ D-
 Tue, Dec 2 163 New Mexico St. W 77 - 75 45% -1  35% 7 - 1 C+ +2 B- +4 D C A C- -2 C C- A
 Fri, Dec 5 131 @East Tennessee St. L 65 - 91 27% -5  42% 7 - 2 F -21 D- -7 C+ F B+ F -15 C+ F F
 Sun, Dec 14 137 North Texas L 57 - 58 51% -4  14% 7 - 3 C- -3 F+ -9 F B+ A+ B+ +7 A+ F+ A-
 Wed, Dec 17 353 @Louisiana Monroe W 96 - 92 2OT 82% -7  24% 8 - 3 1 - 0 D+ -7 D -5 D+ C F+ C- -2 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 237 @Texas St. L 65 - 67 49% +6  90% 8 - 4 1 - 1 C- -3 D -5 F D B- B- +2 A F C-
 Wed, Dec 31 291 @Louisiana W 63 - 58 62% +2  74% 9 - 4 2 - 1 C +0 C+ +3 D B- D+ C -1 C+ F D
 Sat, Jan 3 152 @Troy L 49 - 59 32% -5  16% 9 - 5 2 - 2 D+ -7 F -15 F D+ C A- +7 A- C+ D+
 Sat, Jan 10 266 Georgia Southern W 87 - 71 77% +9  95% 10 - 5 3 - 2 B- +7 C+ +2 A+ F C- B +4 B+ C+ D+
 Thu, Jan 15 143 Arkansas St. W 91 - 87 OT 53% +0  38% 11 - 5 4 - 2 C+ +2 C +0 D+ D A+ C+ +1 C+ C- B+
 Sat, Jan 17 291 Louisiana L 56 - 59 81% -1  34% 11 - 6 4 - 3 D- -14 F -11 F+ B- A D+ -4 D+ C- F
 Thu, Jan 22 201 @James Madison W 90 - 83 42% +2  49% 12 - 6 5 - 3 B- +8 B +7 D- A+ A+ C -0 F+ D+ A
 Thu, Jan 29 236 Coastal Carolina W 53 - 48 71% +0  50% 13 - 6 6 - 3 C- -2 F -14 F+ F+ A+ A+ +13 A A- B
 Sat, Jan 31 289 Georgia St. W 69 - 67 81% +4  79% 14 - 6 7 - 3 D -9 C+ +2 B D A+ F -10 D- F C
 Wed, Feb 4 173 @Appalachian St. L 57 - 65 36% -3  12% 14 - 7 7 - 4 D+ -6 D -5 C- F A+ C- -3 B- D F
 Sat, Feb 7 207 Buffalo W 81 - 69 66% +18  96% 15 - 7 B- +6 C +0 B D+ B+ B+ +6 B A- A-
 Thu, Feb 12 241 @Southern Miss W 84 - 78 50% +8  97% 16 - 7 8 - 4 C+ +5 B- +5 A+ F A C -0 F+ F A+
 Sat, Feb 14 143 @Arkansas St. W 92 - 88 OT 30% -5  21% 17 - 7 9 - 4 B- +8 A- +10 D- A A+ C- -3 C D- A-
 Mon, Feb 16 176 @Marshall L 80 - 84 37% -8  3% 17 - 8 9 - 5 C- -2 A- +10 A- B- B- F -12 D F F
 Thu, Feb 19 237 Texas St. L 82 - 90 OT 71% -3  27% 17 - 9 9 - 6 F+ -15 C +1 A F A F -16 F B- F+
 Sat, Feb 21 152 Troy W 65 - 54 55% +4  91% 18 - 9 10 - 6 B +8 C +1 C D A A +10 A+ C+ D+
 Wed, Feb 25 353 Louisiana Monroe W 83 - 67 93%
 Fri, Feb 27 241 Southern Miss W 73 - 67 71%
Totals 20 - 9 12 - 6 -1 C- -1 B+ D+ B- C +0 D F+ D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C- C- D D+ 46% 39% 35% B- C- D- B+ D+ A- C F+ D+ C D C+ B- C+ 22% 8% 70% D+ C C- D+ D+ C+ A- D+ A-
1.07 56% 37% 31% -3 +1 0.98 23% 1.2 .27 13% .31 65% .20 1.09 64% 37% 32% -1 0 1.01 32% 1.1 .35 17% .23 74% .23
Nov
3		 Toledo B B+ A+ C B 55% 12% 33% B+ B+ C+ B B- C+ C F F C F+ A+ F F 24% 14% 61% D+ F+ A+ F C+ B- A+ D+ A+
1.18 68% 50% 35% +7 +2 1.22 35% 1.1 .39 17% .24 38% .09 1.15 67% 14% 47% +10 0 1.22 19% 1.3 .26 17% .17 78% .13
Nov
6		 Alcorn St. F+ B- F B- D+ 59% 17% 24% C+ D+ F A+ C- D A+ F B C F C+ D F 25% 6% 69% F F B- A+ A+ A+ B F C
1.06 67% 13% 36% +1 +2 1.09 29% 1.5 .43 21% .47 59% .28 0.97 77% 33% 37% +8 +1 1.20 23% 0.1 .03 25% .20 82% .17
Nov
13		 Central Michigan D+ F+ D+ F F 57% 7% 37% A F D+ A+ A- A- A D- B C A+ A+ B A 15% 8% 77% D A- F B F C A A A
1.07 50% 33% 18% -14 +3 0.80 32% 1.6 .51 13% .43 65% .28 1.03 43% 25% 30% -8 0 0.85 41% 1.0 .41 18% .20 60% .12
Nov
15		 Coppin St. D D F C+ F 43% 15% 42% C+ F+ C F F+ B+ F D+ F C- D+ A+ A+ A+ 38% 2% 60% F A- B- F F D- C+ F D+
1.08 57% 25% 36% -1 +1 1.02 36% 0.8 .28 14% .26 73% .19 0.93 58% 0% 17% -16 +2 0.74 26% 1.9 .49 20% .32 76% .24
Nov
19		 Jacksonville St. C D A+ F C- 57% 19% 23% B C- F A+ C- A+ A- F C B+ A C+ C- C+ 33% 5% 62% C- C+ B- C C+ C+ A+ A+ A+
1.07 52% 56% 27% -3 +2 1.00 18% 1.5 .27 11% .41 63% .25 0.98 44% 33% 35% -4 +2 0.98 27% 1.0 .27 18% .07 25% .02
Nov
21		 UAB B+ B D- C C+ 42% 21% 38% C+ C+ F+ B D A+ A+ F A+ F F F C+ F 30% 15% 55% C- F F B D+ B F+ A D+
1.13 65% 30% 33% +1 0 1.04 18% 1.0 .18 5% .44 59% .26 1.25 79% 57% 31% +6 0 1.15 39% 0.9 .37 14% .38 62% .24
Nov
30		 Texas San Antonio C+ F A+ B+ C- 43% 23% 34% D+ C- B D- C C B+ A+ A A+ A A+ A A 11% 11% 77% B- A D+ B+ C+ D- A+ F A+
1.16 43% 58% 39% +1 0 1.04 42% 0.9 .39 15% .32 84% .27 0.82 43% 14% 25% -15 -1 0.71 32% 0.8 .25 14% .03 100% .03
Dec
2		 New Mexico St. B- D- F C D- 49% 22% 29% B D F A+ C A A+ B+ A+ C- D F A+ C 20% 19% 61% C- C F A+ C- A B- D C+
1.16 50% 22% 33% -8 +1 0.88 18% 2.0 .36 11% .66 82% .54 1.13 64% 80% 24% 0 -1 1.00 45% 0.7 .33 20% .24 77% .19
Dec
5		 East Tennessee St. D- F F A+ C 46% 8% 46% B+ C+ F F F B+ C- F F F C A+ B- B 36% 7% 57% D- C+ F F F F A+ C- A+
0.95 48% 25% 43% +1 +2 1.08 17% 0.5 .08 16% .28 56% .16 1.33 59% 25% 31% -3 +2 1.00 39% 1.7 .66 12% .15 78% .12
Dec
14		 North Texas F+ F D+ F F 67% 14% 19% A+ F D+ A+ B+ A+ B D+ B- B+ D+ F A+ A+ 20% 4% 76% C A+ B- F F+ A- B- C+ B-
0.89 46% 33% 0% -18 +3 0.71 29% 1.4 .42 17% .41 68% .28 0.91 60% 50% 19% -16 +1 0.71 31% 1.4 .43 22% .32 69% .22
Dec
17		 Louisiana Monroe D A+ A- F D+ 38% 16% 46% C- D+ F A+ C F+ C+ A B C- F A+ F F 12% 15% 73% B+ F D F F A+ C- F D-
1.10 78% 50% 25% +3 +1 1.10 20% 2.1 .43 19% .27 79% .21 1.05 71% 22% 40% +5 -1 1.10 28% 1.8 .50 27% .33 81% .27
Dec
20		 Texas St. D D+ A+ F F 56% 13% 31% B+ F F A D B- A- F C+ B- B- D+ A+ A+ 38% 16% 47% F A F D F C- F F F
0.99 56% 50% 20% -6 +2 0.94 19% 1.2 .23 17% .40 64% .26 1.02 53% 43% 19% -12 +1 0.80 46% 1.0 .46 18% .41 91% .37
Dec
31		 Louisiana C+ C+ D+ D- D 41% 16% 43% C D B C- B- D+ A- A+ A+ C A+ D- B- B- 9% 20% 70% D+ C+ F+ F F D A C- A-
1.13 60% 33% 31% -2 +1 1.00 37% 1.0 .37 20% .45 85% .38 1.04 25% 44% 32% -4 -2 0.91 32% 1.1 .35 14% .15 71% .10
Jan
3		 Troy F F F F F 43% 14% 43% B F C- D- D+ C A+ D A+ A- A+ B B A- 20% 6% 73% B A- D A- C+ D+ A+ A+ A+
0.84 44% 33% 17% -18 +1 0.69 31% 0.9 .28 17% .43 67% .29 1.01 40% 33% 31% -8 +1 0.88 37% 0.8 .29 15% .14 57% .08
Jan
10		 Georgia Southern C+ B- A A+ A+ 53% 27% 20% D A+ D- F F C- B+ F C B C A+ A A- 24% 2% 75% C- B+ B D C+ D+ C- B+ C
1.20 63% 50% 60% +14 0 1.29 30% 0.8 .22 19% .43 64% .27 0.98 54% 0% 27% -10 +1 0.85 24% 1.2 .28 14% .35 68% .24
Jan
15		 Arkansas St. C C A+ F D- 51% 9% 40% A+ D+ F A+ D A+ B+ D+ B C+ D- B- B+ C+ 25% 5% 69% D+ C+ C D+ C- B+ A D- A-
1.11 61% 67% 19% -5 +2 0.97 15% 1.5 .22 6% .39 70% .27 1.06 67% 33% 29% -3 +1 0.98 37% 1.1 .40 23% .24 80% .19
Jan
17		 Louisiana F D F B F+ 48% 23% 30% C- F+ C- A- B- A F F F D+ C- A+ C+ C 14% 8% 78% F D+ A+ F C- F A+ A+ A+
0.98 52% 20% 38% -5 0 0.93 31% 1.2 .38 14% .20 30% .06 1.03 57% 25% 33% -2 0 0.98 16% 1.6 .25 12% .08 50% .04
Jan
22		 James Madison B D- D F F 49% 11% 40% A- D- D- A+ A+ A+ A+ F A C C A+ F+ F+ 14% 2% 84% C- F+ A+ F D+ A F F+ F
1.19 48% 33% 27% -9 +2 0.87 24% 2.1 .51 4% .54 62% .33 1.10 57% 0% 39% +5 +1 1.14 20% 1.7 .34 22% .43 76% .32
Jan
29		 Coastal Carolina F F A+ D- F 40% 26% 34% B F+ F A+ F+ A+ F F F A+ B B A+ A+ 16% 6% 78% F A D+ A+ A- B A+ A+ A+
0.88 30% 54% 29% -9 -1 0.82 12% 1.5 .18 7% .18 60% .11 0.80 50% 33% 25% -12 0 0.78 28% 0.5 .14 18% .14 57% .08
Jan
31		 Georgia St. C+ A A+ F B 51% 19% 30% B- B D D D A+ B+ F D F D A D+ F+ 10% 17% 73% C- D- F B- F C C A+ B
1.15 71% 56% 21% +4 +1 1.13 30% 0.9 .27 8% .34 53% .18 1.12 60% 25% 34% -2 -1 0.96 40% 1.0 .40 17% .30 67% .20
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 Appalachian St. D C F A- C 33% 29% 38% F+ C- F F F A+ D+ C- D+ C- D+ F A B 18% 4% 78% C- B- C+ F D F D+ D+ D+
0.98 56% 21% 39% -3 -1 0.94 17% 0.5 .08 9% .24 69% .17 1.11 63% 100% 26% -6 +1 0.91 29% 1.3 .37 10% .34 67% .23
Feb
7		 Buffalo C F A+ A+ B- 49% 10% 41% B+ B F A+ D+ B+ A+ F A- B+ C- A C- C+ 9% 18% 74% A+ B B- A+ A- A- A+ A A+
1.16 50% 80% 45% +7 +2 1.20 17% 1.6 .28 14% .40 63% .25 0.99 60% 30% 36% +1 -2 1.00 24% 0.8 .20 20% .11 67% .07
Feb
12		 Southern Miss B- A+ B B+ A+ 32% 19% 49% D+ A+ F C F A A+ F A+ C C A+ F D+ 49% 11% 40% F F+ B+ F F A+ F D F
1.12 87% 44% 39% +14 0 1.30 13% 1.0 .13 13% .57 57% .32 1.04 59% 0% 39% -1 +2 1.04 27% 1.8 .47 28% .52 79% .41
Feb
14		 Arkansas St. A- F F A+ D 21% 29% 50% F D- C A+ A A+ B B+ B+ C- A+ B- D D+ 14% 12% 75% A- C F B- D- A- F A F
1.21 46% 17% 42% -3 -2 0.92 28% 1.5 .41 7% .36 77% .28 1.15 43% 33% 37% +1 -1 1.02 47% 1.0 .44 24% .51 67% .34
Feb
16		 Marshall A- A+ F C- A 47% 29% 24% C A- B+ C- B- B- F D+ F F F A- C- D 14% 12% 74% D+ D B- F F F A+ A- A+
1.24 83% 27% 33% +8 -1 1.18 41% 0.9 .38 15% .24 69% .16 1.30 100% 29% 36% +7 -1 1.14 29% 1.6 .47 11% .16 67% .10
Feb
19		 Texas St. C A- B+ A A 48% 13% 39% B A F F F A D+ D D F F F+ F F 20% 34% 46% A+ F C+ B B- F+ F B F
1.13 69% 43% 43% +11 +2 1.28 7% 0.0 .00 14% .30 68% .21 1.24 70% 47% 43% +12 -3 1.20 31% 0.8 .26 15% .53 73% .39
Feb
21		 Troy C C+ F D+ D+ 40% 6% 53% A C D D+ D A D+ C- D+ A A+ A+ A+ A+ 17% 2% 80% B- A+ D A- C+ D+ F D- F
1.11 58% 33% 32% -2 +2 1.02 27% 1.0 .27 12% .25 69% .17 0.92 38% 0% 24% -16 +1 0.72 37% 0.8 .29 15% .46 78% .36



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1.2 66.5 67.7 1st
2nd 8.4 8.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 14.4 14.4 3rd
4th 0.4 7.2 7.6 4th
5th 1.0 1.0 5th
6th 0.8 0.8 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 2.3 31.2 66.5 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 100.0% 66.5    2.8 17.6 30.5 15.6
11-7 3.9% 1.2    0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.1
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 67.7% 67.7 2.8 17.6 30.5 15.7 0.4 0.6 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 66.5% 22.3% 22.3% 14.2 0.0 1.6 8.7 4.4 0.1 51.7
11-7 31.2% 13.0% 13.0% 14.6 0.1 1.5 2.1 0.2 27.1
10-8 2.3% 3.2% 3.2% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 18.9% 18.9% 0.0% 14.3 81.1 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 14.8% 100.0% 14.2 0.1 10.9 58.5 30.0 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 16.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 31.3%
Lose Out 0.9%