South Alabama
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.5#156
Expected Predictive Rating-0.5#179
Pace61.6#344
Improvement-2.2#285

Offense
Total Offense-2.0#230
First Shot-0.3#185
After Offensive Rebound-1.7#287
Layup/Dunks+1.1#138
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#287
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#132
Freethrows-0.8#230
Improvement-3.6#340

Defense
Total Defense+2.6#101
First Shot+1.5#124
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#95
Layups/Dunks+10.5#4
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#1
3 Pt Jumpshots-15.6#364
Freethrows+2.8#27
Improvement+1.4#113
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.8% 9.8% 6.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.8 14.0
.500 or above 98.7% 99.8% 95.7%
.500 or above in Conference 98.1% 99.7% 94.0%
Conference Champion 3.0% 4.0% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round8.8% 9.8% 6.2%
Second Round0.5% 0.5% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Coastal Carolina (Away) - 72.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 36 - 16 - 6
Quad 412 - 619 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 225   Central Michigan L 70-74 73%     0 - 1 -10.0 -2.0 -8.1
  Nov 08, 2024 197   @ Nicholls St. W 70-64 49%     1 - 1 +6.8 +3.1 +4.1
  Nov 12, 2024 26   @ Mississippi L 54-64 7%     1 - 2 +7.1 -5.9 +12.3
  Nov 16, 2024 222   Mercer W 75-66 73%     2 - 2 +3.1 +1.1 +2.1
  Nov 25, 2024 291   Incarnate Word W 84-63 83%     3 - 2 +11.4 +9.9 +3.1
  Nov 26, 2024 354   Western Illinois L 63-64 93%     3 - 3 -16.8 -7.0 -10.0
  Nov 29, 2024 320   Alcorn St. W 74-65 OT 88%     4 - 3 -2.9 +1.9 -4.2
  Dec 08, 2024 130   Jacksonville St. W 76-74 55%     5 - 3 +1.3 +7.5 -6.0
  Dec 15, 2024 343   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 81-72 82%     6 - 3 -0.3 +8.1 -8.1
  Dec 16, 2024 68   @ TCU L 49-58 18%     6 - 4 +1.4 -8.2 +8.1
  Dec 21, 2024 137   James Madison W 77-49 56%     7 - 4 1 - 0 +26.9 +10.9 +18.9
  Jan 02, 2025 278   @ Georgia St. W 77-51 67%     8 - 4 2 - 0 +22.0 +10.5 +14.9
  Jan 04, 2025 254   @ Georgia Southern W 76-47 63%     9 - 4 3 - 0 +26.1 +4.4 +22.5
  Jan 09, 2025 93   Arkansas St. W 76-62 39%     10 - 4 4 - 0 +17.4 +18.2 +1.6
  Jan 11, 2025 275   Old Dominion L 63-71 OT 81%     10 - 5 4 - 1 -16.8 -12.8 -4.2
  Jan 15, 2025 248   Southern Miss W 75-62 78%     11 - 5 5 - 1 +5.4 -0.1 +5.3
  Jan 18, 2025 111   Troy W 64-63 49%     12 - 5 6 - 1 +1.8 -2.5 +4.4
  Jan 25, 2025 111   @ Troy L 55-65 30%     12 - 6 6 - 2 -4.2 -6.9 +1.4
  Jan 27, 2025 328   @ Louisiana Monroe L 66-77 79%     12 - 7 6 - 3 -19.0 -7.6 -11.7
  Jan 30, 2025 328   Louisiana Monroe L 58-62 89%     12 - 8 6 - 4 -17.0 -12.4 -5.0
  Feb 01, 2025 301   @ Louisiana W 62-58 OT 71%     13 - 8 7 - 4 -1.3 -10.4 +9.2
  Feb 05, 2025 309   @ Coastal Carolina W 67-60 73%    
  Feb 08, 2025 100   @ Akron L 67-74 24%    
  Feb 13, 2025 182   Marshall W 69-65 67%    
  Feb 15, 2025 184   Texas St. W 69-65 67%    
  Feb 19, 2025 93   @ Arkansas St. L 63-71 22%    
  Feb 22, 2025 184   @ Texas St. L 67-68 46%    
  Feb 26, 2025 248   @ Southern Miss W 68-65 61%    
  Feb 28, 2025 301   Louisiana W 70-59 85%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.3 1.7 3.0 1st
2nd 0.3 4.9 7.8 1.0 14.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 3.7 12.3 3.7 19.7 3rd
4th 1.5 11.3 8.1 0.3 21.3 4th
5th 0.2 6.7 11.2 1.7 0.0 19.8 5th
6th 2.1 8.9 2.0 0.0 13.0 6th
7th 0.3 3.5 2.0 0.0 5.8 7th
8th 0.7 1.6 0.2 2.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 0.1 0.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.1 1.7 7.6 19.2 28.5 27.1 13.1 2.6 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 63.9% 1.7    0.3 0.9 0.4 0.1
13-5 9.5% 1.3    0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0
12-6 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.0% 3.0 0.5 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 2.6% 18.6% 18.6% 12.9 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.1
13-5 13.1% 14.7% 14.7% 13.4 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.1 11.2
12-6 27.1% 11.5% 11.5% 13.9 0.1 0.8 1.6 0.7 24.0
11-7 28.5% 7.9% 7.9% 14.1 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.6 0.0 26.3
10-8 19.2% 3.8% 3.8% 14.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 18.5
9-9 7.6% 3.0% 3.0% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.3
8-10 1.7% 2.9% 2.9% 15.2 0.0 0.0 1.7
7-11 0.1% 0.1
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 8.8% 8.8% 0.0% 13.9 0.4 2.4 4.1 1.8 0.1 91.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%