South Florida
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +8.1 #70
Expected Predictive Rating +6.3 #85
Pace 78.2 #14
Improvement +0.0 #186

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #69 C- A C+ A- A
Defense #90 B- C+ B- C B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #29 1.10 #257 +2.6 #96
2 Pt. Jumpers 8% #359 0.63 #337 -5.3 #362
Three Pointers 47% #63 0.95 #265 +1.5 #123
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #210 -1.2 #211
Freethrows 0.37 #10 74% #125 0.28 #14
Second Chance 38.4% #14 1.20 #22 0.46 #10
Turnovers 15.7% #119
Total Offense +5.0 #69

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #241 1.06 #72 +2.9 #83
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #73 0.72 #120 -0.9 #259
Three Pointers 39% #232 1.03 #212 +0.5 #160
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #99 +2.4 #99
Freethrows 0.32 #264 70% #61 0.23 #221
Second Chance 30.6% #174 0.93 #54 0.28 #102
Turnovers 18.7% #66
Total Defense +3.1 #90

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 4.2% #6 -1.1% #86
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.3% #291 -3.6% #105
Possession Length 15.1 #21 17.1 #170
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 #46 0.14 #75
Improvement +0.0 #175 +0.0 #190

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.8% 27.9% 22.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.2% 1.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.3 11.3 11.6
.500 or above 99.9% 99.9% 99.4%
.500 or above in Conference 99.7% 99.7% 98.1%
Conference Champion 33.2% 33.5% 16.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.8% 0.8% 0.0%
First Round27.4% 27.5% 22.2%
Second Round5.7% 5.7% 4.2%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.0% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas San Antonio (Home) - 98.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b2 - 12 - 2
Quad 24 - 45 - 7
Quad 38 - 413 - 11
Quad 48 - 021 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 317 Florida A&M W 102 - 67 96% +15  1 - 0 +22 +12 C+ A C- +6 A+ F A
 Sat, Nov 8 79 George Washington L 95 - 99 54% -1  1 - 1 +3 +7 F A+ A- -3 D- B A+
 Wed, Nov 12 364 Coppin St. W 100 - 50 99% +28  2 - 1 +27 +18 C- A+ B+ +10 A+ D B
 Sun, Nov 16 142 @Kennesaw St. W 108 - 89 65% +9  3 - 1 +23 +24 B- A+ A -3 B+ F C
 Wed, Nov 19 56 @Oklahoma St. L 95 - 103 33% -2  3 - 2 +5 +13 A+ C+ C -8 F C+ A+
 Wed, Nov 26 50 Virginia Commonwealth L 66 - 78 41% -3  3 - 3 -2 -6 F C A+ +5 A+ B C
 Thu, Nov 27 156 Western Kentucky W 97 - 91 OT 78% -5  4 - 3 +6 +3 D B- B- +1 D+ C A+
 Fri, Nov 28 103 Colorado St. L 68 - 83 63% -8  4 - 4 -10 -4 F B- B+ -7 F B+ B+
 Thu, Dec 4 38 Utah St. W 74 - 61 41% +15  5 - 4 +24 +5 B C D+ +18 A+ A+ A-
 Wed, Dec 10 152 College of Charleston W 81 - 75 84% +2  6 - 4 +3 +8 C A- C -5 B+ D+ B
 Wed, Dec 17 20 @Alabama L 93 - 104 13% -8  6 - 5 +9 +16 C A+ F+ -6 B- D+ A
 Sun, Dec 21 261 Maryland Baltimore Co. W 94 - 69 93% +15  7 - 5 +16 +13 B- A+ B +3 B+ D A-
 Sun, Jan 4 120 UAB L 106 - 109 2OT 78% +3  7 - 6 0 - 1 -3 +4 C+ B B- -6 C A+ D-
 Wed, Jan 7 147 @North Texas W 74 - 70 66% +0  8 - 6 1 - 1 +8 +10 C A+ D- -2 D C C+
 Sat, Jan 10 69 @Tulsa W 93 - 78 38% +8  9 - 6 2 - 1 +26 +17 A- A+ B- +8 A A+ B
 Wed, Jan 14 247 East Carolina W 82 - 71 92% +11  10 - 6 3 - 1 +3 +3 C- F A+ -1 C B- D-
 Sun, Jan 18 99 Wichita St. L 85 - 86 OT 73% -1  10 - 7 3 - 2 +1 +5 C C+ B -5 D A+ C
 Thu, Jan 22 120 @UAB W 82 - 69 59% +8  11 - 7 4 - 2 +19 +6 C A+ F +12 A+ D+ B-
 Sun, Jan 25 109 Florida Atlantic W 89 - 75 76% +2  12 - 7 5 - 2 +15 +15 F+ A+ B+ -1 A+ D+ F+
 Wed, Jan 28 171 @Tulane W 97 - 83 72% +11  13 - 7 6 - 2 +16 +18 D+ A+ A -3 F A+ C
 Sat, Jan 31 143 @Temple L 78 - 79 65% -3  13 - 8 6 - 3 +3 +4 C- A+ F -1 B+ F B
 Wed, Feb 4 342 Texas San Antonio W 92 - 69 98%
 Sun, Feb 8 69 Tulsa W 87 - 84 61%
 Wed, Feb 11 99 @Wichita St. W 79 - 78 51%
 Sun, Feb 15 109 @Florida Atlantic W 83 - 82 55%
 Thu, Feb 19 96 Memphis W 82 - 76 70%
 Wed, Feb 25 233 @Rice W 83 - 74 80%
 Sun, Mar 1 171 Tulane W 85 - 73 87%
 Thu, Mar 5 96 @Memphis L 78 - 79 49%
 Sun, Mar 8 157 Charlotte W 83 - 72 85%
Totals 19 - 11 12 - 6 +8 +5 C- A C+ +3 B- C+ B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 2.2 11.8 14.3 4.9 33.2 1st
2nd 1.0 13.5 13.3 2.6 30.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 5.4 8.9 0.7 15.1 3rd
4th 0.7 7.1 1.2 9.0 4th
5th 0.0 2.6 2.9 0.0 5.6 5th
6th 0.3 2.9 0.3 3.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 1.1 0.0 2.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 0.1 1.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.3 2.2 7.4 16.8 25.9 25.8 16.9 4.9 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 4.9    4.4 0.5
14-4 84.9% 14.3    9.2 4.9 0.3
13-5 45.7% 11.8    2.8 6.1 2.6 0.3 0.0
12-6 8.7% 2.2    0.1 0.3 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.1
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 33.2% 33.2 16.4 11.8 3.8 0.9 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 4.9% 43.3% 37.2% 6.1% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 0.0 2.8 9.7%
14-4 16.9% 38.6% 36.6% 2.0% 11.1 0.3 5.0 1.2 10.4 3.2%
13-5 25.8% 31.2% 30.5% 0.8% 11.3 0.0 0.1 5.0 2.9 0.0 17.7 1.1%
12-6 25.9% 25.5% 25.4% 0.1% 11.5 0.0 3.4 3.1 0.0 19.3 0.2%
11-7 16.8% 19.1% 19.1% 0.0% 11.7 0.0 1.0 2.1 0.1 13.6 0.0%
10-8 7.4% 15.3% 15.3% 11.8 0.3 0.8 0.0 6.2
9-9 2.2% 9.3% 9.3% 12.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 2.0
8-10 0.3% 1.7% 1.7% 12.0 0.0 0.3
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 27.8% 26.9% 0.9% 11.3 72.2 1.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.8% 100.0% 10.2 0.8 3.6 18.0 29.3 47.5 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.0% 14.2% 10.8 3.4 10.3 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9% 10.4% 10.9 2.7 6.0 1.6