South Florida
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.8#177
Expected Predictive Rating-2.0#203
Pace69.5#142
Improvement-0.4#209

Offense
Total Offense-1.0#205
First Shot+1.1#140
After Offensive Rebound-2.1#302
Layup/Dunks+0.9#145
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#227
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#208
Freethrows+2.0#72
Improvement-2.1#297

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#160
First Shot+0.5#165
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#214
Layups/Dunks-1.3#224
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#218
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#42
Freethrows-1.6#287
Improvement+1.7#95
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 0.8% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.3 15.0
.500 or above 11.4% 18.0% 4.9%
.500 or above in Conference 14.7% 23.0% 6.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.9% 0.9% 6.9%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round0.7% 0.8% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Temple (Home) - 50.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 51 - 8
Quad 34 - 85 - 16
Quad 48 - 214 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 4   Florida L 83-98 4%     0 - 1 +4.9 +11.5 -5.2
  Nov 08, 2024 131   @ College of Charleston L 71-86 31%     0 - 2 -10.8 -10.1 +1.3
  Nov 12, 2024 363   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 85-69 96%     1 - 2 -5.3 -1.4 -4.0
  Nov 15, 2024 345   West Georgia W 74-55 89%     2 - 2 +4.7 -0.5 +6.6
  Nov 21, 2024 299   Portland W 74-68 75%     3 - 2 -1.7 -5.7 +3.9
  Nov 22, 2024 120   Middle Tennessee L 88-95 38%     3 - 3 -4.7 +16.5 -21.2
  Nov 24, 2024 196   Wright St. W 73-72 53%     4 - 3 -0.6 -2.2 +1.5
  Dec 03, 2024 334   Stetson W 74-72 88%     5 - 3 -11.7 -8.4 -3.3
  Dec 07, 2024 128   @ Loyola Chicago L 72-74 31%     5 - 4 +2.4 +2.5 -0.2
  Dec 14, 2024 49   @ Utah St. L 67-88 11%     5 - 5 -8.3 -2.3 -5.7
  Dec 18, 2024 279   Bethune-Cookman L 69-77 78%     5 - 6 -17.0 -1.9 -15.4
  Dec 21, 2024 343   Texas A&M - Commerce W 88-62 89%     6 - 6 +11.7 +7.7 +3.4
  Dec 31, 2024 150   East Carolina W 75-69 53%     7 - 6 1 - 0 +4.3 -1.4 +5.5
  Jan 06, 2025 134   @ Wichita St. W 91-72 32%     8 - 6 2 - 0 +23.0 +18.8 +3.9
  Jan 11, 2025 141   @ Tulane L 70-73 33%     8 - 7 2 - 1 +0.7 +8.3 -7.9
  Jan 15, 2025 96   UAB L 83-92 38%     8 - 8 2 - 2 -6.6 +10.6 -17.5
  Jan 18, 2025 238   Tulsa W 63-56 72%     9 - 8 3 - 2 +0.0 -10.7 +10.8
  Jan 22, 2025 221   @ Charlotte L 61-69 50%     9 - 9 3 - 3 -8.8 -9.8 +0.6
  Jan 25, 2025 150   @ East Carolina L 55-64 34%     9 - 10 3 - 4 -5.7 -9.9 +3.2
  Jan 28, 2025 192   Rice W 69-64 62%     10 - 10 4 - 4 +1.0 -5.2 +6.2
  Feb 02, 2025 106   @ Florida Atlantic L 72-94 24%     10 - 11 4 - 5 -15.3 -2.0 -12.7
  Feb 06, 2025 125   Temple L 76-77 50%    
  Feb 09, 2025 134   Wichita St. W 74-73 53%    
  Feb 13, 2025 41   Memphis L 71-81 19%    
  Feb 16, 2025 96   @ UAB L 74-82 21%    
  Feb 19, 2025 202   @ Texas San Antonio L 77-78 43%    
  Feb 23, 2025 70   North Texas L 60-66 30%    
  Feb 26, 2025 125   @ Temple L 74-79 29%    
  Mar 02, 2025 106   Florida Atlantic L 76-79 43%    
  Mar 07, 2025 41   @ Memphis L 68-83 7%    
Projected Record 13 - 17 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.4 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 0.4 1.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 1.5 0.1 3.3 5th
6th 0.0 1.8 3.9 1.2 6.9 6th
7th 1.3 7.3 3.6 0.1 12.4 7th
8th 0.0 1.4 9.8 8.9 1.0 21.1 8th
9th 0.8 8.7 11.5 2.0 0.0 23.0 9th
10th 0.3 5.0 9.2 2.4 0.1 17.0 10th
11th 1.2 6.3 2.8 0.1 10.4 11th
12th 1.6 1.9 0.2 0.0 3.6 12th
13th 0.5 0.1 0.6 13th
Total 3.5 14.1 22.3 25.2 20.2 10.1 3.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 50.0% 0.0    0.0
12-6 5.9% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.0 0.2
11-7 0.7% 5.4% 5.4% 13.0 0.0 0.7
10-8 3.7% 1.9% 1.9% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.6
9-9 10.1% 1.5% 1.5% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.0
8-10 20.2% 0.9% 0.9% 14.6 0.1 0.1 20.0
7-11 25.2% 0.6% 0.6% 15.4 0.1 0.1 25.1
6-12 22.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 22.2
5-13 14.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.1
4-14 3.5% 3.5
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.7%