South Florida
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +9.5 58
Results Rating +8.6 69
Pace 76.5 21
Improvement +1.6 123

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B 63 C A B- A- A
Defense B- 70 B- C+ B C B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% 17 D+ 55% 272 +2.9 85
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 358 C 37% 194 -5.0 361
Three Pointers 46% 73 C- 32% 255 +1.5 136
Shot Selection/Accuracy A +2.2 4 D+ -2.7 275
1st FG Attempt C 1.01 190
Second Chance A- 38.9% 11 B+ 1.16 40 A 0.45 7
Turnovers B- 15.4% 92
Freethrows A- 0.38 12 C+ 74% 131 A- 0.28 12
Total Offense B +5.6 63

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 52% 122 D+ 12.6% 278
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 18% 271 F 10.4% 355
Three Pointers A- 93% 15 C- 1.1% 239
Total B+ 64% 36 D 7.1% 325

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 275 B 53% 54 -3.7 65
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 64 C+ 37% 121 +1.1 276
Three Pointers 40% 206 C- 35% 233 +0.3 196
Shot Selection/Accuracy B -0.7 69 C+ -1.6 113
1st FG Attempt B- 0.97 101
Second Chance C 29.7% 156 B- 0.96 76 C+ 0.29 103
Turnovers B 19.0% 59
Freethrows C- 0.31 217 B 69% 42 C 0.22 179
Total Defense B- +3.9 70

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 50% 204 B 15.6% 43
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 25% 172 D+ 3.6% 255
Three Pointers C 84% 187 B 1.8% 42
Total C 56% 190 B- 7.1% 68

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 15.2 22 17.5 214
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 70 0.14 62
Improvement +0.3 #167 +1.3 #112

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 74 59 48
Results Rating Rank 85 67 43
Conference Record 13 - 5 14 - 4 15 - 3
Conference Finish 1 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 10
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 2nd Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 41% 42% 35%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 6% 7% 2%
Average Seed 11.0 11.0 11.3
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 98% 100% 92%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four4% 4% 2%
First Round39% 39% 34%
Second Round9% 10% 7%
Sweet Sixteen2% 2% 1%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Rice (Away) - 83.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b2 - 12 - 2
Quad 25 - 47 - 6
Quad 38 - 315 - 9
Quad 48 - 023 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 328 Florida A&M W 102 - 67 97% +15  76% 1 - 0 A +21 A- +9 C A C- A- +7 A+ F A
 Sat, Nov 8 82 George Washington L 95 - 99 59% -1  42% 1 - 1 C+ +3 C+ +3 F A+ A- C+ +0 D- B A+
 Wed, Nov 12 363 Coppin St. W 100 - 50 99% +28  96% 2 - 1 A+ +29 A+ +19 C+ A+ A- A +11 A+ D B+
 Sun, Nov 16 165 @Kennesaw St. W 108 - 89 74% +9  98% 3 - 1 A +22 A+ +20 C+ A+ A C -1 B+ F C+
 Wed, Nov 19 68 @Oklahoma St. L 95 - 103 43% -2  28% 3 - 2 C+ +3 A- +10 A+ C+ C D -6 F C A+
 Wed, Nov 26 46 Virginia Commonwealth L 66 - 78 43% -3  34% 3 - 3 C -1 D- -7 F C- A A- +7 A B+ C
 Thu, Nov 27 147 Western Kentucky W 97 - 91 OT 80% -5  18% 4 - 3 B- +7 C +0 D C+ B- B +5 D+ C+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 91 Colorado St. L 68 - 83 63% -8  9% 4 - 4 D -9 D- -6 F B B C- -3 F B+ A-
 Thu, Dec 4 28 Utah St. W 74 - 61 40% +15  96% 5 - 4 A+ +25 C+ +2 B C+ D- A+ +22 A+ A+ A
 Wed, Dec 10 149 College of Charleston W 81 - 75 87% +2  67% 6 - 4 C+ +3 B +7 C A C+ D+ -4 B D+ B
 Wed, Dec 17 18 @Alabama L 93 - 104 13% -8  2% 6 - 5 B +10 A +13 C- A+ F C- -2 B- D+ A
 Sun, Dec 21 234 Maryland Baltimore Co. W 94 - 69 93% +15  97% 7 - 5 A +18 A +11 B A+ B B+ +6 B+ D A
 Sun, Jan 4 121 UAB L 106 - 109 2OT 82% +3  70% 7 - 6 0 - 1 C- -3 C+ +2 C+ B B D+ -5 C A+ D-
 Wed, Jan 7 137 @North Texas W 74 - 70 69% +0  47% 8 - 6 1 - 1 B +8 B +7 C A+ D C+ +1 D- C+ B-
 Sat, Jan 10 76 @Tulsa W 93 - 78 46% +8  88% 9 - 6 2 - 1 A+ +26 A+ +15 A- A+ C+ A +10 A- A+ B
 Wed, Jan 14 246 East Carolina W 82 - 71 94% +11  99% 10 - 6 3 - 1 C+ +3 C -0 C- F A+ B- +3 C+ B- D
 Sun, Jan 18 97 Wichita St. L 85 - 86 OT 75% -1  52% 10 - 7 3 - 2 C +2 B- +5 C C+ B D+ -3 D A- C-
 Thu, Jan 22 121 @UAB W 82 - 69 64% +8  95% 11 - 7 4 - 2 A +19 B- +4 C A+ F A+ +14 A+ D B-
 Sun, Jan 25 116 Florida Atlantic W 89 - 75 81% +2  45% 12 - 7 5 - 2 B+ +14 A +14 F+ A+ B C +0 A+ D F+
 Wed, Jan 28 162 @Tulane W 97 - 83 74% +11  89% 13 - 7 6 - 2 A- +17 A+ +16 D+ A+ A C -1 F A+ C
 Sat, Jan 31 156 @Temple L 78 - 79 73% -3  22% 13 - 8 6 - 3 C+ +2 C +1 D+ A+ F C+ +1 B F B+
 Wed, Feb 4 334 Texas San Antonio W 109 - 88 98% +6  77% 14 - 8 7 - 3 B- +7 A+ +26 A- A+ A+ F -20 F F C+
 Sun, Feb 8 76 Tulsa W 80 - 74 68% +6  97% 15 - 8 8 - 3 B +11 B- +5 C+ F A+ B+ +6 A+ F A
 Wed, Feb 11 97 @Wichita St. W 66 - 58 54% -2  27% 16 - 8 9 - 3 A- +17 D+ -3 C A F A+ +20 A+ A+ A-
 Sun, Feb 15 116 @Florida Atlantic W 83 - 81 OT 63% -0  30% 17 - 8 10 - 3 B- +8 B- +5 D+ A- A- B- +3 C+ B- F
 Thu, Feb 19 101 Memphis W 87 - 66 77% +11  82% 18 - 8 11 - 3 A +23 A+ +16 C A- A+ A- +7 A+ A+ C-
 Wed, Feb 25 232 @Rice W 84 - 74 83%
 Sun, Mar 1 162 Tulane W 84 - 71 88%
 Thu, Mar 5 101 @Memphis W 80 - 78 56%
 Sun, Mar 8 174 Charlotte W 84 - 71 89%
Totals 21 - 9 14 - 4 +9 B +6 A D+ A B- +4 C- C+ A-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B D+ C C- D+ 46% 15% 46% A C A- B+ A B- A- C+ A- B- B C+ C- C+ 36% 24% 40% B B- C B- C+ B C- B C
1.17 55% 37% 32% -3 +2 1.01 39% 1.2 .45 15% .38 74% .28 1.03 53% 37% 35% -2 -1 0.97 30% 1.0 .29 19% .31 69% .26
Nov
3		 Florida A&M A- D F A- D+ 55% 2% 43% A+ C A+ C- A C- A+ A A+ A- C- A+ A+ A+ 42% 17% 40% F+ A+ C F F A F D+ F
1.27 54% 0% 41% +1 +4 1.12 49% 0.9 .46 19% .61 85% .52 0.84 59% 11% 14% -16 +1 0.71 28% 1.3 .35 26% .44 69% .30
Nov
8		 George Washington C+ C+ C- F F 46% 5% 49% A+ F A- A+ A+ A- A+ B- A+ C+ C- F D- D 53% 4% 43% D- D- B- B B A+ F C F
1.12 62% 33% 14% -13 +3 0.81 36% 1.6 .57 14% .51 73% .37 1.16 62% 100% 38% +7 +3 1.22 34% 1.0 .34 25% .64 73% .47
Nov
12		 Coppin St. A+ A+ A+ F C+ 30% 7% 63% C+ C+ A+ B+ A+ A- A F B- A A+ A+ A+ A+ 50% 27% 23% D A+ D+ D- D B+ F D- F
1.46 81% 100% 29% +7 +1 1.19 56% 1.3 .69 13% .45 67% .30 0.73 36% 17% 20% -21 0 0.59 31% 1.1 .33 26% .43 73% .32
Nov
16		 Kennesaw St. A+ D+ D B+ C- 60% 6% 35% A+ C+ A- A+ A+ A A+ A A+ C C+ A+ A+ A 52% 5% 43% F B+ F C F C+ F B+ F
1.36 52% 33% 39% -2 +3 1.06 39% 1.3 .50 11% .65 83% .54 1.12 55% 0% 25% -9 +3 0.89 46% 1.0 .44 18% .59 64% .38
Nov
19		 Oklahoma St. A- A F A+ A+ 33% 4% 63% B+ A+ B+ D- C+ C A+ D- A+ D F+ F F F 53% 16% 31% C+ F D+ B- C A+ F+ A+ C
1.16 67% 0% 41% +8 +2 1.22 35% 0.9 .33 18% .45 67% .30 1.26 69% 56% 53% +17 +2 1.40 34% 0.9 .31 23% .41 62% .25
Nov
26		 Virginia Commonwealth D- D F F F 64% 11% 25% A+ F C C- C- A B- F D+ A- A D B+ A 37% 25% 38% A+ A D A+ B+ C F B- F
0.91 50% 0% 14% -17 +3 0.75 30% 0.9 .27 12% .32 60% .19 1.08 47% 46% 30% -4 -1 0.92 38% 0.8 .31 15% .52 72% .37
Nov
27		 Western Kentucky C F F B F+ 47% 13% 40% A D B C- C+ B- D- A C- B C D+ D+ F+ 31% 29% 40% A D+ A+ F C+ A+ F+ A D+
1.06 47% 22% 37% -6 +2 0.94 33% 0.9 .29 16% .34 77% .26 1.00 53% 39% 36% 0 -2 0.98 23% 1.3 .30 21% .39 68% .26
Nov
28		 Colorado St. D- F F F F 40% 12% 47% A- F B- B- B B D- B- D C- B- D- F F 41% 15% 43% D+ F A+ F B+ A- A+ A+ A+
0.99 48% 0% 26% -15 +1 0.75 30% 1.2 .37 13% .23 71% .17 1.21 58% 43% 70% +24 +1 1.52 14% 2.0 .29 22% .22 58% .13
Dec
4		 Utah St. C+ D- A+ B- C+ 48% 7% 45% A+ B C- B+ C+ D- A+ B- A+ A+ A+ B- A- A+ 37% 24% 39% A+ A+ A A+ A+ A B+ B+ A-
1.05 48% 67% 35% -2 +2 1.02 29% 1.1 .32 24% .60 75% .45 0.86 42% 33% 30% -9 0 0.82 28% 0.8 .21 20% .26 67% .18
Dec
10		 College of Charleston B C+ A+ F D 44% 8% 48% A+ C A+ C A C+ A+ C A+ D+ A+ A+ C- A 42% 12% 46% F B F A D+ B F D- F
1.18 61% 50% 24% -5 +2 0.96 46% 1.0 .43 13% .38 70% .27 1.09 45% 17% 33% -8 +1 0.88 40% 0.9 .35 19% .45 80% .36
Dec
17		 Alabama A F A+ D+ D+ 38% 15% 47% A- C- A+ A A+ F A+ A+ A+ C- A+ F F C+ 29% 22% 49% A+ B- F A+ D+ A F F+ F
1.18 38% 50% 31% -8 +1 0.87 50% 1.2 .58 19% .53 79% .42 1.32 38% 67% 41% +5 -1 1.11 49% 0.9 .44 18% .54 83% .45
Dec
21		 Maryland Baltimore Co. A C F A C+ 54% 4% 42% A+ B B+ A+ A+ B B+ B- B+ B+ B D A+ B 35% 35% 30% A B+ D+ F+ D A C C C
1.29 58% 0% 42% +3 +3 1.16 34% 1.5 .51 11% .28 72% .20 0.94 53% 42% 25% -4 -2 0.89 24% 1.1 .26 21% .28 75% .21
Jan
4		 UAB C+ C- C- C C 39% 9% 52% A- C+ B B B B A+ F A+ D+ C- A+ F C 51% 28% 20% C C A+ A+ A+ D- F C- F
1.10 58% 33% 34% 0 +2 1.04 31% 1.0 .31 14% .43 64% .28 1.13 61% 14% 40% -4 0 0.95 21% 0.8 .16 8% .48 72% .35
Jan
7		 North Texas B C+ F F D+ 50% 11% 39% A C B+ A+ A+ D A+ B+ A+ C+ D+ B- D- F+ 46% 26% 28% B+ D- B- C C+ B- C- A+ A+
1.08 58% 25% 27% -6 +2 0.95 39% 1.5 .58 25% .70 75% .53 1.02 61% 31% 36% 0 0 1.02 32% 1.0 .32 19% .36 45% .16
Jan
10		 Tulsa A+ B- F B+ B+ 29% 2% 70% A- A- A A- A+ C+ B D C+ A B+ F A+ A 37% 12% 51% B A- A+ A+ A+ B F C F
1.27 63% 0% 38% +5 +2 1.16 36% 1.3 .46 15% .31 68% .21 1.06 50% 80% 27% -3 +1 0.98 18% 0.8 .15 18% .65 79% .51
Jan
14		 East Carolina C F+ F A- D+ 40% 11% 49% A- C- D F F A+ A+ B- A+ B- C A- B- C 35% 30% 35% B C+ A+ F B- D D- A+ C
1.11 48% 17% 39% -2 +1 1.00 26% 0.5 .14 9% .39 77% .30 0.96 55% 29% 30% -6 -1 0.88 23% 1.2 .28 15% .40 60% .24
Jan
18		 Wichita St. B- F F A+ D+ 42% 16% 42% A C B+ D+ C+ B B+ A A D+ A+ A+ F D 41% 20% 39% C- D D+ A+ A- C- D+ A- C
1.11 42% 22% 42% -5 +1 0.95 34% 0.9 .30 14% .33 77% .26 1.12 42% 25% 52% +1 0 1.05 41% 0.7 .30 14% .35 61% .21
Jan
22		 UAB B- F A+ A- D+ 39% 4% 57% A C A+ A A+ F A+ F B A+ A+ A A+ A+ 37% 29% 35% B+ A+ F B- D B- F+ F F
1.08 38% 50% 39% -3 +2 1.00 38% 1.1 .43 21% .35 62% .22 0.91 39% 28% 18% -18 -1 0.63 40% 1.0 .38 13% .38 84% .32
Jan
25		 Florida Atlantic A C F F F 55% 8% 37% A F+ A+ A+ A+ B A+ C A+ C C B- A+ A 22% 43% 35% A+ A+ D+ D D F+ C- D+ C-
1.26 56% 25% 17% -12 +3 0.84 51% 1.4 .71 14% .51 71% .36 1.06 58% 39% 21% -6 -4 0.81 35% 1.2 .42 14% .31 74% .23
Jan
28		 Tulane A+ B- D F D 44% 12% 44% B+ D+ A A+ A+ A A+ C+ A+ C F+ C- F F 29% 14% 57% C F C+ A+ A+ C C A+ B
1.28 61% 33% 26% -5 +2 0.96 44% 1.6 .69 13% .53 71% .38 1.10 69% 38% 41% +9 0 1.20 21% 0.1 .03 15% .37 67% .25
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Temple C C A F D- 45% 10% 45% A- D+ C A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ C+ F+ A- A B 28% 25% 47% B+ B F+ F F B+ A F B
1.09 58% 50% 26% -4 +2 0.98 30% 1.6 .48 25% .58 87% .51 1.11 67% 31% 28% -4 -1 0.92 35% 1.5 .54 17% .29 82% .24
Feb
4		 Texas San Antonio A+ B+ A+ C B+ 52% 5% 43% A A- A A+ A+ A+ A D+ A- F B F F F 38% 22% 40% C+ F C F F C+ D- B D
1.54 68% 67% 35% +7 +3 1.22 47% 1.5 .71 7% .35 70% .24 1.24 47% 55% 55% +12 0 1.26 30% 1.4 .43 18% .31 67% .21
Feb
8		 Tulsa B- B A+ F C- 43% 6% 51% A C+ B F F A+ A+ B A+ B+ A+ A C A 22% 14% 63% A+ A+ F D F A C A+ A-
1.17 64% 67% 27% -1 +2 1.04 31% 0.5 .15 10% .49 77% .37 1.08 36% 29% 35% -5 0 0.92 40% 1.4 .55 20% .33 61% .20
Feb
11		 Wichita St. D+ D+ A+ F D+ 48% 18% 34% A C A B- A F A+ F A+ A+ B B A+ A+ 27% 29% 44% A A+ A- A+ A+ A- C C+ C
0.95 52% 50% 27% -4 +1 0.95 39% 1.0 .39 26% .54 61% .33 0.84 50% 33% 22% -12 -2 0.75 33% 0.5 .18 19% .32 67% .21
Feb
15		 Florida Atlantic B- F F A+ F+ 64% 2% 34% A+ D+ B- A A- A- D F+ F+ B- D- A- C C 33% 28% 39% A C+ A+ F B- F A+ B- A
1.08 38% 0% 43% -9 +4 0.93 30% 1.2 .37 13% .26 65% .17 1.06 65% 35% 33% +1 -1 1.02 24% 1.3 .32 13% .20 69% .14
Feb
19		 Memphis A+ F A- B- C- 40% 14% 46% B+ C A+ D A- A+ A+ A+ A+ A- A+ D+ C A+ 31% 29% 40% A- A+ C+ A+ A+ C- D- D+ D-
1.24 40% 43% 35% -6 +1 0.92 50% 0.8 .41 14% .58 86% .50 0.94 25% 40% 33% -10 -2 0.79 36% 0.7 .26 19% .35 75% .26



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1.0 15.4 44.0 37.9 98.4 1st
2nd 0.0 1.2 1.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.3 0.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.2 2.5 15.4 44.0 37.9 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 37.9    37.9
14-4 100.0% 44.0    44.0
13-5 100.0% 15.4    5.9 7.7 1.8
12-6 41.3% 1.0    0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total 98.4% 98.4 87.9 7.9 2.3 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 37.9% 47.4% 39.9% 7.5% 10.8 0.1 0.7 3.7 12.5 1.0 20.0 12.4%
14-4 44.0% 38.4% 36.2% 2.1% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.9 12.4 3.6 0.0 27.1 3.3%
13-5 15.4% 32.6% 31.9% 0.7% 11.4 0.1 3.1 1.8 0.0 10.4 1.0%
12-6 2.5% 27.0% 26.9% 0.1% 11.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 1.8 0.2%
11-7 0.2% 25.0% 25.0% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 40.6% 36.7% 3.9% 11.0 59.4 6.1%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 15.1% 100.0% 10.7 0.4 4.3 22.9 66.7 5.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 7.8% 16.0% 10.9 0.0 1.8 13.3 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 7.5% 12.4% 10.9 0.0 1.1 11.0 0.3