South Florida
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +6.6 #89
Expected Predictive Rating +5.5 #96
Pace 77.6 #24
Improvement -1.3 #251

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #78 C A+ B- A- A+
Defense #104 C+ B- A- D+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% #18 1.13 #221 +3.9 #59
2 Pt. Jumpers 8% #359 0.65 #295 -5.1 #361
Three Pointers 46% #97 0.93 #274 +0.5 #158
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #193 -0.7 #192
Freethrows 21.1 #24 74% #152 15.5 #30
Second Chance 38.8% #21 1.22 #23 0.47 #7
Turnovers 15.5% #112
Total Offense +4.3 #78

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #141 1.04 #51 +1.5 #124
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #86 0.72 #137 -0.9 #248
Three Pointers 36% #303 1.07 #266 +1.4 #132
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #116 +1.9 #119
Freethrows 19.6 #298 70% #73 13.7 #108
Second Chance 30.8% #185 0.95 #65 0.29 #116
Turnovers 20.0% #33
Total Defense +2.3 #104

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 4.5% #4 -0.6% #116
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.5% #262 -3.2% #118
Possession Length 15.0 #26 17.2 #168
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #67 0.14 #79
Improvement -0.3 #207 -1.0 #248

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.8% 22.0% 15.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.7% 0.1%
Average Seed 11.7 11.5 11.9
.500 or above 93.4% 97.9% 90.8%
.500 or above in Conference 88.9% 95.6% 85.1%
Conference Champion 18.9% 31.6% 11.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
First Round17.7% 21.8% 15.3%
Second Round3.3% 4.7% 2.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 1.1% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tulsa (Away) - 36.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 3
Quad 24 - 54 - 8
Quad 38 - 412 - 12
Quad 47 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 345 Florida A&M W 102 - 67 97%  +15  1 - 0 +20 +10 C A C- +6 A+ F A+
 Sat, Nov 8 70 George Washington L 95 - 99 43%  -1  1 - 1 +4 +6 F A+ B+ -1 C- A- A+
 Wed, Nov 12 364 Coppin St. W 100 - 50 99%  +28  2 - 1 +27 +20 C- A+ B+ +8 A+ D- A-
 Sun, Nov 16 162 @Kennesaw St. W 108 - 89 65%  +9  3 - 1 +22 +24 B+ A+ A+ -4 B F C
 Wed, Nov 19 54 @Oklahoma St. L 95 - 103 28%  -2  3 - 2 +5 +14 A+ B D+ -8 F B- A+
 Wed, Nov 26 49 Virginia Commonwealth L 66 - 78 34%  -3  3 - 3 -1 -4 F C A+ +3 A+ B C+
 Thu, Nov 27 155 Western Kentucky W 97 - 91 OT 74%  -5  4 - 3 +6 +1 F B B- +3 D B- A+
 Fri, Nov 28 94 Colorado St. L 68 - 83 53%  -8  4 - 4 -9 -4 F B- B+ -5 F A+ A+
 Thu, Dec 4 35 Utah St. W 74 - 61 34%  +15  5 - 4 +24 +5 B+ C D +19 A+ A+ A-
 Wed, Dec 10 149 College of Charleston W 81 - 75 81%  +2  6 - 4 +3 +8 C- A+ C -4 A- D+ B+
 Wed, Dec 17 13 @Alabama L 93 - 104 9%  -8  6 - 5 +10 +16 C- A+ F -5 B+ D+ A+
 Sun, Dec 21 267 Maryland Baltimore Co. W 94 - 69 92%  +15  7 - 5 +16 +12 B A+ B+ +3 B+ C A
 Sun, Jan 4 113 UAB L 106 - 109 2OT 71%  +3  7 - 6 0 - 1 -2 +4 C+ A+ B -5 C A+ F
 Wed, Jan 7 133 @North Texas W 74 - 70 58%  +0  8 - 6 1 - 1 +9 +10 B- A+ F -2 D- C+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 81 @Tulsa L 80 - 84 36% 
 Wed, Jan 14 266 East Carolina W 86 - 70 93% 
 Sun, Jan 18 104 Wichita St. W 80 - 75 68% 
 Thu, Jan 22 113 @UAB L 81 - 82 49% 
 Sun, Jan 25 106 Florida Atlantic W 84 - 79 68% 
 Wed, Jan 28 176 @Tulane W 81 - 76 67% 
 Sat, Jan 31 143 @Temple W 82 - 79 59% 
 Wed, Feb 4 315 Texas San Antonio W 88 - 69 96% 
 Sun, Feb 8 81 Tulsa W 83 - 81 59% 
 Wed, Feb 11 104 @Wichita St. L 77 - 78 46% 
 Sun, Feb 15 106 @Florida Atlantic L 81 - 82 47% 
 Thu, Feb 19 78 Memphis W 80 - 78 57% 
 Wed, Feb 25 245 @Rice W 80 - 72 78% 
 Sun, Mar 1 176 Tulane W 84 - 73 83% 
 Thu, Mar 5 78 @Memphis L 77 - 81 37% 
 Sun, Mar 8 166 Charlotte W 81 - 71 83% 
Totals 18 - 12 11 - 7 +7 +4 C A+ B- +2 C+ B- A-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.1 4.8 7.0 4.3 1.5 0.3 18.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 6.3 7.1 2.4 0.3 0.0 17.0 2nd
3rd 0.4 5.1 7.0 1.9 0.1 14.4 3rd
4th 0.1 2.5 7.3 2.5 0.1 12.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 5.6 3.7 0.2 10.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 3.1 4.5 0.6 0.0 8.4 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 4.2 1.3 0.0 6.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.7 1.8 0.1 5.0 8th
9th 0.2 1.2 2.0 0.3 3.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 3.0 6.5 10.2 14.4 17.6 17.0 13.9 9.4 4.6 1.5 0.3 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3
16-2 99.0% 1.5    1.5 0.0
15-3 93.8% 4.3    3.6 0.7 0.0
14-4 74.0% 7.0    3.9 2.6 0.5 0.0
13-5 34.2% 4.8    1.1 2.1 1.3 0.2 0.0
12-6 6.4% 1.1    0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 18.9% 18.9 10.3 5.7 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.3% 64.8% 53.7% 11.1% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 24.0%
16-2 1.5% 44.6% 36.5% 8.1% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.9 12.8%
15-3 4.6% 35.2% 34.4% 0.8% 11.1 0.0 0.1 1.2 0.3 3.0 1.2%
14-4 9.4% 30.2% 29.9% 0.3% 11.4 0.0 1.6 1.2 0.0 6.6 0.5%
13-5 13.9% 24.7% 24.6% 0.1% 11.6 1.3 2.1 0.0 10.5 0.1%
12-6 17.0% 20.6% 20.5% 0.0% 11.8 0.8 2.5 0.2 0.0 13.5 0.0%
11-7 17.6% 15.6% 15.6% 12.0 0.3 2.1 0.3 14.8
10-8 14.4% 10.1% 10.1% 12.1 0.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 12.9
9-9 10.2% 8.2% 8.2% 12.5 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.0 9.4
8-10 6.5% 5.3% 5.3% 13.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 6.1
7-11 3.0% 3.5% 3.5% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.9
6-12 1.2% 0.9% 0.9% 15.0 0.0 1.2
5-13 0.3% 3.1% 3.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.3
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 17.8% 17.5% 0.2% 11.7 82.2 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 8.0 3.4 20.7 17.2 10.3 27.6 17.2 3.4