South Florida
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.5#169
Expected Predictive Rating-3.8#231
Pace69.6#158
Improvement-0.4#210

Offense
Total Offense+0.3#164
First Shot+2.9#94
After Offensive Rebound-2.6#322
Layup/Dunks+1.8#119
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#248
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#186
Freethrows+2.5#49
Improvement+0.3#153

Defense
Total Defense-0.8#193
First Shot-1.0#204
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#167
Layups/Dunks-2.4#277
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#175
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#54
Freethrows-1.8#308
Improvement-0.7#246
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.3% 1.6% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.4 14.1
.500 or above 26.4% 33.6% 14.1%
.500 or above in Conference 30.5% 38.6% 16.9%
Conference Champion 0.6% 0.9% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 13.6% 8.2% 22.6%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round1.3% 1.6% 0.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: East Carolina (Home) - 62.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 21 - 51 - 9
Quad 35 - 76 - 16
Quad 48 - 214 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 7   Florida L 83-98 4%     0 - 1 +4.2 +10.8 -5.2
  Nov 08, 2024 117   @ College of Charleston L 71-86 27%     0 - 2 -9.1 -8.0 +0.9
  Nov 12, 2024 363   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 85-69 96%     1 - 2 -4.4 -1.3 -3.2
  Nov 15, 2024 341   West Georgia W 74-55 90%     2 - 2 +4.7 -0.2 +6.2
  Nov 21, 2024 314   Portland W 74-68 78%     3 - 2 -2.6 -3.4 +0.7
  Nov 22, 2024 129   Middle Tennessee L 88-95 41%     3 - 3 -5.2 +16.2 -21.3
  Nov 24, 2024 168   Wright St. W 73-72 50%     4 - 3 +0.6 -2.2 +2.8
  Dec 03, 2024 348   Stetson W 74-72 90%     5 - 3 -12.9 -8.2 -4.8
  Dec 07, 2024 121   @ Loyola Chicago L 72-74 28%     5 - 4 +3.6 +3.3 +0.3
  Dec 14, 2024 47   @ Utah St. L 67-88 10%     5 - 5 -7.2 -0.2 -6.7
  Dec 18, 2024 263   Bethune-Cookman L 69-77 77%     5 - 6 -16.4 -2.5 -14.2
  Dec 21, 2024 356   Texas A&M - Commerce W 88-62 92%     6 - 6 +10.0 +6.8 +2.7
  Dec 31, 2024 182   East Carolina W 72-68 63%    
  Jan 06, 2025 101   @ Wichita St. L 71-79 22%    
  Jan 11, 2025 202   @ Tulane L 72-74 43%    
  Jan 15, 2025 127   UAB W 79-78 51%    
  Jan 18, 2025 239   Tulsa W 78-71 73%    
  Jan 22, 2025 193   @ Charlotte L 71-73 43%    
  Jan 25, 2025 182   @ East Carolina L 69-71 41%    
  Jan 28, 2025 186   Rice W 72-68 64%    
  Feb 02, 2025 88   @ Florida Atlantic L 75-85 18%    
  Feb 06, 2025 124   Temple W 74-73 50%    
  Feb 09, 2025 101   Wichita St. L 74-76 42%    
  Feb 13, 2025 44   Memphis L 73-82 21%    
  Feb 16, 2025 127   @ UAB L 76-82 30%    
  Feb 19, 2025 226   @ Texas San Antonio W 79-78 49%    
  Feb 23, 2025 85   North Texas L 62-66 35%    
  Feb 26, 2025 124   @ Temple L 70-76 30%    
  Mar 02, 2025 88   Florida Atlantic L 78-82 36%    
  Mar 07, 2025 44   @ Memphis L 70-85 9%    
Projected Record 13 - 17 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 2.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 3.9 3rd
4th 0.4 2.2 2.4 0.7 0.1 5.6 4th
5th 0.2 2.3 3.6 1.1 0.1 0.0 7.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 4.7 1.7 0.1 8.4 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 5.0 3.3 0.3 0.0 9.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 4.4 5.0 0.8 0.0 10.6 8th
9th 0.3 3.2 6.2 1.9 0.1 11.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 2.3 6.0 3.0 0.2 11.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.7 5.1 3.6 0.5 11.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.5 4.0 3.5 0.7 0.0 10.1 12th
13th 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.5 2.0 0.5 0.0 7.1 13th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.9 4.2 7.9 11.6 14.1 15.2 14.0 11.6 8.3 5.4 3.0 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 70.1% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
14-4 43.6% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 12.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 15.0% 15.0% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.2% 6.9% 6.9% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 0.5% 9.7% 9.7% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
13-5 1.4% 8.3% 8.3% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.3
12-6 3.0% 7.4% 7.4% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.8
11-7 5.4% 4.4% 4.4% 13.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 5.2
10-8 8.3% 2.4% 2.4% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.1
9-9 11.6% 1.5% 1.5% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 11.4
8-10 14.0% 0.8% 0.8% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 13.9
7-11 15.2% 0.5% 0.5% 15.3 0.1 0.0 15.1
6-12 14.1% 0.4% 0.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 14.1
5-13 11.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.6
4-14 7.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.9
3-15 4.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.2
2-16 1.9% 1.9
1-17 0.5% 0.5
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 98.7 0.0%