St. Mary's
West Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +13.2 40
Results Rating +15.0 33
Pace 64.6 285
Improvement -1.5 242

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws
Shot Selection
Offense B 59 B- B+ C+ B+ C+
Defense B+ 27 A- A- D+ B+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 99 C+ 59% 137 +2.3 94
2 Pt. Jumpers 41% 145 D+ 36% 256 -0.4 202
Three Pointers 38% 244 A 40% 9 +1.7 129
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.2 176 B- +3.2 78
1st FG Attempt B- 1.09 78
Second Chance B+ 37.5% 22 B- 1.09 87 B+ 0.41 30
Turnovers C+ 16.2% 141
Freethrows B- 0.33 113 A 81% 1 B+ 0.27 33
Total Offense B +5.9 59

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B- 55% 69 B- 9.1% 81
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 35% 50 C+ 4.3% 125
Three Pointers B 90% 45 C 1.0% 202
Total B 63% 42 C+ 5.0% 113

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 157 B+ 51% 29 -2.3 98
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% 60 B 34% 55 +0.6 235
Three Pointers 36% 315 A- 29% 20 -5.0 12
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.4 99 A- -6.2 15
1st FG Attempt A- 0.89 20
Second Chance A- 24.1% 16 B 0.92 44 A- 0.22 13
Turnovers D+ 15.4% 261
Freethrows B+ 0.24 21 C 72% 189 B+ 0.17 27
Total Defense B+ +7.3 27

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 46% 129 C+ 13.0% 91
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 34% 317 C- 4.1% 216
Three Pointers C- 86% 231 B- 1.3% 85
Total C+ 54% 148 B- 6.6% 91

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.8 235 17.8 262
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 185 0.18 209
Improvement -1.5 #261 -0.1 #189

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile
Expected
50th Percentile
Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 44 39 32
Results Rating Rank 43 33 23
Conference Record 14 - 4 15 - 3 16 - 2
Conference Finish 3 2 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None 10 7
NCAA Tourney Finish None 1st Round Sweet 16

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 2% 3% 1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 87% 91% 81%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 84% 88% 79%
Average Seed 9.4 9.2 9.8
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 25% 40% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four17% 12% 24%
First Round79% 85% 70%
Second Round34% 38% 28%
Sweet Sixteen7% 8% 5%
Elite Eight2% 2% 1%
Final Four0% 1% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Santa Clara (Home) - 62.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 4
Quad 27 - 18 - 6
Quad 311 - 019 - 6
Quad 48 - 026 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA
2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA
2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 128 St. Thomas W 84 - 58 90% +11  86% 1 - 0 A+ +25 A +13 A C C+ A+ +14 B A+ C+
 Fri, Nov 7 274 Chattanooga W 87 - 66 97% +12  90% 2 - 0 B+ +12 A- +10 A+ D- F B- +3 C A- B+
 Tue, Nov 11 209 Ohio W 90 - 60 95% +15  84% 3 - 0 A+ +24 A +12 B- A+ B+ A+ +13 A+ D- A-
 Fri, Nov 14 137 North Texas W 80 - 49 91% +23  95% 4 - 0 A+ +29 A +12 C- A+ C A+ +19 A+ A+ F
 Wed, Nov 19 143 Arkansas St. W 85 - 72 92% +7  96% 5 - 0 B +11 B+ +9 B+ A+ F+ B- +2 A- B F
 Wed, Nov 26 97 Wichita St. W 70 - 65 77% +3  71% 6 - 0 B +11 C +0 F B A- A +10 A- A+ A-
 Thu, Nov 27 57 Virginia Tech W 77 - 66 63% +8  98% 7 - 0 A +21 B+ +9 A A F A+ +12 A+ A+ D+
 Fri, Nov 28 16 Vanderbilt L 71 - 96 30% -13  0% 7 - 1 D+ -6 C +1 B+ C D- D- -7 C+ F+ D-
 Sun, Dec 7 113 @Davidson W 70 - 61 75% +1  43% 8 - 1 A- +15 B- +4 C+ B- C+ A+ +11 A A+ D-
 Sun, Dec 14 64 Boise St. L 67 - 68 67% -6  2% 8 - 2 B- +8 D+ -4 F C+ C+ A+ +11 C+ A A+
 Fri, Dec 19 116 Florida Atlantic W 88 - 75 89% +10  94% 9 - 2 B+ +13 B +7 B- B+ C B+ +5 A D+ C+
 Mon, Dec 22 94 Northern Iowa W 63 - 58 83% -2  19% 10 - 2 B- +8 C +1 F A+ C A- +7 B+ B+ D+
 Sun, Dec 28 148 @Loyola Marymount W 78 - 73 82% +1  56% 11 - 2 1 - 0 B +9 A+ +20 A A+ A+ F -11 C- F F
 Tue, Dec 30 281 @Pepperdine W 72 - 45 93% +12  98% 12 - 2 2 - 0 A+ +23 B- +5 B- C C A+ +22 A+ B+ B+
 Fri, Jan 2 220 Portland W 78 - 57 96% +14  95% 13 - 2 3 - 0 A- +15 B+ +7 A C B- A +9 A+ A F
 Sun, Jan 4 122 Seattle W 93 - 76 89% +0  34% 14 - 2 4 - 0 A- +17 A+ +32 A+ A+ A+ F -14 D- B F
 Sat, Jan 10 126 Washington St. W 88 - 82 89% +9  93% 15 - 2 5 - 0 B- +6 B+ +9 A F+ F D+ -3 D- B- C+
 Tue, Jan 13 127 @San Francisco W 82 - 68 77% +9  88% 16 - 2 6 - 0 A +19 A +12 A- A D+ A- +8 B- B+ D
 Sat, Jan 17 42 @Santa Clara L 54 - 62 40% -7  0% 16 - 3 6 - 1 B- +8 F -13 F C+ B- A+ +21 A+ A+ C-
 Wed, Jan 21 158 Oregon St. W 81 - 51 93% +14  97% 17 - 3 7 - 1 A+ +27 A +13 B A+ A- A+ +17 A+ A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 24 220 @Portland W 75 - 69 89% +4  87% 18 - 3 8 - 1 B- +6 B +6 B+ F+ D+ C+ +0 B B- F
 Sat, Jan 31 12 @Gonzaga L 65 - 73 20% -3  18% 18 - 4 8 - 2 B+ +14 C+ +3 D+ D A A+ +11 A+ C- C+
 Wed, Feb 4 226 San Diego W 87 - 60 96% +19  95% 19 - 4 9 - 2 A +20 A+ +16 A- A+ B+ A- +7 C A+ C-
 Sat, Feb 7 127 San Francisco W 79 - 54 90% +15  95% 20 - 4 10 - 2 A+ +24 B+ +9 A C+ A+ A+ +18 A+ A+ F
 Wed, Feb 11 281 Pepperdine W 88 - 60 97% +16  94% 21 - 4 11 - 2 A +18 B +6 A A- F A+ +12 A+ B D+
 Sat, Feb 14 117 @Pacific W 72 - 61 76% +2  48% 22 - 4 12 - 2 A- +17 B+ +8 D- A+ A+ A +10 A C- B+
 Wed, Feb 18 122 @Seattle W 72 - 70 76% +5  76% 23 - 4 13 - 2 B- +8 B- +4 C- A+ C B +4 C A- C-
 Sat, Feb 21 126 @Washington St. W 83 - 67 77% +4  58% 24 - 4 14 - 2 A +22 A+ +17 A+ C+ C- B+ +6 B- A+ D
 Wed, Feb 25 42 Santa Clara W 77 - 74 63%
 Sat, Feb 28 12 Gonzaga L 72 - 75 39%
Totals 25 - 5 15 - 3 +13 B +6 A+ B- C+ B+ +7 A A B+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B C+ D+ A B- 41% 41% 38% C+ B- B+ B- B+ C+ B- A B+ B+ B+ B A- A- 39% 25% 36% B- A- A- B A- D+ B+ C B+
1.17 59% 36% 40% +3 0 1.09 37% 1.1 .41 16% .33 81% .27 0.98 51% 34% 29% -6 0 0.89 24% 0.9 .22 15% .24 72% .24
Nov
3
St. Thomas A A+ D A A+ 33% 19% 48% D+ A B+ F C C+ A B A A+ C- F A+ A- 51% 8% 41% D- B A- A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ A+
1.29 81% 33% 39% +11 0 1.23 37% 0.9 .33 17% .35 79% .28 0.89 65% 75% 24% 0 +3 1.08 14% 0.0 .00 15% .18 30% .05
Nov
7
Chattanooga A- C A+ A+ A+ 40% 23% 37% D+ A+ D D- D- F A+ A+ A+ B- D D+ B C- 29% 29% 42% A- C C+ A+ A- B+ F D F
1.29 59% 60% 50% +14 0 1.30 29% 1.0 .29 21% .54 93% .51 0.98 64% 43% 30% +1 -2 1.00 19% 0.7 .13 19% .35 79% .28
Nov
11
Ohio A C- F+ A+ B- 42% 19% 38% C B- A- A+ A+ B+ B+ B A- A+ C+ B- A+ A+ 34% 28% 38% B A+ C- F D- A- A+ F A+
1.30 55% 30% 45% +3 0 1.10 42% 1.5 .65 13% .36 77% .28 0.86 56% 40% 15% -11 -1 0.77 29% 1.2 .34 20% .13 86% .11
Nov
14
North Texas A F F A D 47% 13% 40% A- C- A+ B+ A+ C B A+ A A+ A+ A+ C A+ 47% 17% 36% C- A+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ F B+
1.20 43% 17% 39% -7 +2 0.91 54% 1.2 .62 22% .41 81% .33 0.73 16% 22% 32% -24 +1 0.57 21% 0.7 .15 12% .24 86% .20
Nov
19
Arkansas St. B+ C F A+ B 51% 19% 30% B+ B+ A+ B A+ F+ A+ B A+ B- A- B- A- A 47% 10% 43% F+ A- C B+ B F A+ F A-
1.23 59% 13% 54% +5 +1 1.14 41% 1.2 .47 19% .59 76% .45 1.04 48% 33% 28% -9 +2 0.88 37% 0.9 .33 15% .22 85% .19
Nov
26
Wichita St. C D+ B F F 43% 29% 29% B- F B- B+ B A- A+ A+ A+ A A A- B A 48% 26% 26% C A- A+ B A+ A- C- F F+
1.02 52% 43% 7% -13 -1 0.76 31% 1.1 .33 13% .44 85% .37 0.95 46% 31% 31% -9 0 0.84 26% 0.9 .23 19% .34 79% .27
Nov
27
Virginia Tech B+ B A+ C- A 49% 16% 36% A- A A B A F A+ A A+ A+ C B A+ A+ 25% 31% 44% A+ A+ F+ A+ A+ D+ D+ F F+
1.14 64% 57% 31% +4 +1 1.13 41% 1.1 .44 22% .36 79% .28 0.97 62% 31% 26% -6 -2 0.85 39% 0.5 .20 13% .34 85% .29
Nov
28
Vanderbilt C C+ A C- B+ 35% 24% 41% C B+ D- A C D- B- A+ A D- F A+ F C 41% 30% 29% A- C+ C+ F F+ D- C D C-
0.98 56% 45% 32% 0 -1 1.00 21% 1.2 .24 22% .35 90% .32 1.32 83% 12% 44% +6 -1 1.13 31% 1.5 .49 10% .34 82% .27
Dec
7
Davidson B- B- C D C+ 46% 33% 22% C- C+ A+ F B- C+ C+ C- C A+ C- C+ A+ A 29% 29% 42% A A A A+ A+ D- C+ A+ B+
1.09 62% 40% 30% +1 -1 1.02 46% 0.8 .35 17% .32 65% .21 0.95 60% 40% 27% -3 -2 0.92 23% 0.6 .13 14% .27 53% .15
Dec
14
Boise St. D+ F+ D- F F 40% 26% 34% C+ F B+ F C+ C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C F B- C 36% 26% 38% A C+ A+ F A A+ A F A-
0.98 47% 33% 25% -10 0 0.81 28% 0.9 .25 15% .41 83% .34 0.99 59% 50% 33% +3 -1 1.06 18% 1.2 .21 22% .26 86% .22
Dec
19
Florida Atlantic B A+ F F C+ 46% 12% 42% B B- A+ D- B+ C A+ A A+ B+ A+ F C+ A+ 46% 17% 37% D A A F D+ C+ F A D-
1.15 71% 17% 27% -1 +2 1.04 42% 0.9 .36 17% .52 79% .41 0.98 33% 56% 32% -10 +1 0.85 25% 1.6 .40 18% .40 64% .26
Dec
22
Northern Iowa C F F F F 40% 21% 40% C F A+ A+ A+ C A+ A+ A+ A- A- D B- B+ 42% 21% 37% B- B+ A+ F B+ D+ A+ D- A+
1.02 41% 11% 18% -22 0 0.58 41% 1.2 .49 18% .53 93% .49 0.94 50% 45% 32% -3 0 0.96 10% 1.7 .17 13% .07 75% .06
Dec
28
Loyola Marymount A+ C C+ A+ A+ 40% 29% 31% C- A B+ A+ A+ A+ A- D- B- F A+ F D- D 28% 34% 38% A C- D- F F F C+ B C+
1.31 56% 38% 50% +7 -1 1.13 38% 1.5 .55 10% .36 68% .24 1.23 46% 56% 39% +6 -2 1.09 32% 1.4 .46 10% .26 64% .17
Dec
30
Pepperdine B- A- B+ D B 47% 19% 34% C- B- D A C C F+ A+ C+ A+ B- B A+ A+ 35% 19% 46% D+ A+ A- B- B+ B+ A+ C A+
1.17 68% 44% 31% +5 +1 1.13 28% 1.3 .36 16% .19 100% .19 0.73 53% 33% 18% -14 0 0.75 22% 0.9 .19 21% .08 75% .06
Jan
2
Portland B+ A+ F A+ A+ 31% 18% 51% C- A C- C+ C B- A B- A A A- F+ A+ A+ 46% 25% 29% B- A+ D A+ A F B- F C-
1.22 71% 25% 43% +9 0 1.20 31% 1.1 .34 16% .39 76% .30 0.89 50% 46% 7% -14 0 0.75 33% 0.7 .23 14% .27 87% .24
Jan
4
Seattle A+ A+ F A+ A+ 58% 13% 29% A A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B A+ A F B F F D- 47% 14% 40% D D- A- C B F A+ C- A+
1.44 70% 29% 47% +11 +2 1.29 59% 1.2 .72 14% .34 84% .29 1.18 52% 50% 43% +4 +1 1.14 19% 0.9 .17 8% .12 71% .08
Jan
10
Washington St. B+ D+ D+ A+ A 33% 15% 52% B- A C+ F F+ F A- A+ A+ D+ F+ F C- D 43% 12% 45% D- D- B+ D+ B- C+ D C D
1.24 53% 38% 48% +9 0 1.21 29% 0.6 .18 20% .35 100% .35 1.16 71% 67% 36% +11 +1 1.27 25% 1.0 .25 18% .33 74% .24
Jan
13
San Francisco A D+ C+ A+ A 40% 32% 28% D A- C+ A+ A D+ A+ A+ A+ A- C B- D+ C+ 31% 28% 41% A B- A+ F B+ D A+ A+ A+
1.23 53% 40% 54% +7 -1 1.13 29% 1.5 .43 15% .44 88% .39 1.02 59% 33% 36% 0 -1 1.00 18% 1.6 .29 14% .23 38% .09
Jan
17
Santa Clara F F C- F F 38% 19% 43% C- F C B- C+ B- A- F C+ A+ B A A+ A+ 42% 31% 27% A A+ A+ A+ A+ C- F C- F
0.80 39% 33% 15% -20 0 0.62 30% 1.1 .33 19% .40 64% .26 0.92 55% 33% 23% -7 -1 0.85 21% 0.9 .18 15% .35 75% .26
Jan
21
Oregon St. A C+ D C B- 48% 13% 39% B B A- A A+ A- A C+ A A+ A+ D- A+ A+ 40% 26% 33% B- A+ A- A+ A+ D- F C- F
1.29 59% 33% 33% -1 +2 1.04 39% 1.2 .48 11% .41 74% .30 0.81 35% 45% 14% -17 -1 0.67 21% 0.5 .10 14% .50 78% .39
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
24
Portland B D B- A+ B+ 46% 17% 37% B- B+ C+ F F+ D+ B A+ A C+ B+ A+ F+ B 43% 24% 33% B- B A F B- F C F D-
1.15 52% 38% 47% +5 +1 1.13 34% 0.7 .24 18% .34 89% .30 1.06 52% 25% 38% -4 0 0.94 21% 1.4 .30 14% .30 88% .27
Jan
31
Gonzaga C+ A F D C- 26% 38% 36% F+ D+ D+ D- D A A+ A+ A+ A+ D- A+ C- A 29% 42% 29% A+ A+ A F C- C+ F+ A D+
0.96 67% 22% 29% -6 -3 0.83 20% 0.7 .14 16% .44 92% .40 1.07 71% 25% 36% -1 -3 0.94 29% 1.5 .45 15% .36 62% .22
Feb
4
San Diego A+ D+ A A+ A 45% 21% 34% C A- A- A A+ B+ B- A B+ A- D+ A+ F C 33% 27% 40% B C B A+ A+ C- C- A+ A+
1.36 57% 50% 50% +10 0 1.23 42% 1.3 .55 16% .37 80% .30 0.94 63% 23% 42% +2 -1 1.04 26% 0.5 .13 17% .25 38% .09
Feb
7
San Francisco B+ D+ C+ A+ A- 52% 19% 30% A- A A- F+ C+ A+ F C+ F A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 29% 17% 54% B- A+ A+ A+ A+ F B+ F D+
1.23 54% 40% 50% +5 +1 1.15 34% 0.9 .31 8% .14 75% .10 0.84 40% 22% 25% -15 0 0.71 15% 0.7 .10 9% .27 94% .26
Feb
11
Pepperdine B F A A+ A+ 32% 20% 48% D- A A+ D- A- F A+ F B+ A+ A- A+ A- A+ 38% 20% 42% D+ A+ B- B+ B D+ A A+ A+
1.23 44% 50% 54% +12 0 1.26 49% 0.9 .46 21% .39 59% .23 0.84 48% 8% 28% -14 0 0.75 26% 0.8 .22 17% .20 58% .12
Feb
14
Pacific B+ A+ F D- D- 31% 25% 44% C+ D- A- A+ A+ A+ F A+ D+ A A A+ F A+ 50% 20% 30% D- A A F C- B+ B F+ B-
1.13 71% 7% 29% -7 -1 0.85 33% 1.4 .45 6% .24 86% .20 0.96 43% 22% 43% -6 +1 0.91 27% 1.3 .36 24% .23 82% .19
Feb
18
Seattle B- C- D+ D C 47% 31% 22% D+ C- C- A+ A+ C A+ A- A+ B D+ D A- C 42% 24% 34% B C A+ B- A- C- F+ C+ D-
0.99 52% 36% 30% -5 -1 0.91 29% 1.7 .48 21% .47 78% .36 0.96 62% 42% 29% 0 0 1.02 16% 0.8 .13 17% .36 68% .25
Feb
21
Washington St. A+ A- A A+ A+ 36% 32% 32% D A+ A+ F C+ C- D- C+ D- B+ C+ A+ D B+ 52% 10% 38% F B- B A+ A+ D B D+ B-
1.32 67% 50% 56% +18 -2 1.34 45% 0.7 .31 16% .23 75% .17 1.06 60% 20% 39% +2 +2 1.10 26% 0.4 .12 16% .25 77% .19




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 25.0 25.1 1st
2nd 38.6 38.6 2nd
3rd 23.4 13.0 36.4 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 23.4 51.6 25.0 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 25.0    0.2 24.8
15-3 0.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 0.0%
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 25.1% 25.1 0.2 24.8 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 25.0% 94.5% 32.0% 62.5% 8.7 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.9 5.6 7.0 5.3 1.6 1.4 91.8%
15-3 51.6% 88.6% 13.7% 75.0% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.0 5.5 11.6 16.3 9.6 0.1 5.9 86.8%
14-4 23.4% 75.8% 11.2% 64.6% 10.2 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.6 6.1 7.7 0.1 5.7 72.7%
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 87.1% 17.7% 69.4% 9.4 12.9 84.3%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 8.0% 100.0% 7.8 0.0 2.1 12.9 25.0 32.1 21.6 5.7 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 13.9% 92.7% 9.1 0.1 1.5 5.7 18.1 31.2 27.8 8.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.1% 87.9% 9.4 0.4 2.0 14.7 29.3 30.3 11.1
Lose Out 3.5% 53.6% 10.7 0.5 1.7 13.5 37.1 0.8