St. Mary's
West Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +12.5 #41
Expected Predictive Rating +14.9 #34
Pace 64.0 #318
Improvement -1.9 #283

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #50 B A+ B- A+ C+
Defense #43 A B+ D A- B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #73 1.21 #116 +3.7 #68
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #197 0.70 #244 -0.8 #213
Three Pointers 38% #252 1.14 #34 +0.7 #152
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #88 +3.6 #87
Freethrows 20.3 #52 83% #2 16.8 #11
Second Chance 39.5% #13 1.14 #81 0.45 #22
Turnovers 15.4% #107
Total Offense +6.7 #50

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #187 0.99 #23 +3.3 #71
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #58 0.76 #200 -1.9 #310
Three Pointers 36% #298 0.84 #19 +5.6 #19
1st FG Attempt 0.88 #22 +7.0 #22
Freethrows 12.2 #12 78% #352 9.5 #340
Second Chance 25.8% #37 0.99 #118 0.26 #44
Turnovers 14.7% #293
Total Defense +5.8 #43

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.9% #126 -1.1% #87
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 6.0% #86 -12.6% #18
Possession Length 17.8 #227 18.0 #296
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #183 0.18 #216
Improvement +1.0 #114 -2.9 #335

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 2.3% 2.5% 0.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 47.6% 48.7% 35.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 36.3% 37.4% 24.9%
Average Seed 9.8 9.7 10.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.2%
Conference Champion 16.0% 16.9% 5.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four15.3% 15.5% 13.6%
First Round40.9% 42.1% 28.7%
Second Round18.9% 19.6% 11.4%
Sweet Sixteen4.7% 4.9% 2.2%
Elite Eight1.5% 1.6% 0.7%
Final Four0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.1%

Next Game: Washington St. (Home) - 91.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 4
Quad 25 - 26 - 6
Quad 312 - 118 - 7
Quad 47 - 025 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 135 St. Thomas W 84 - 58 90%  +11  1 - 0 +25 +16 A+ C- A- +11 B A+ C
 Fri, Nov 7 273 Chattanooga W 87 - 66 97%  +12  2 - 0 +12 +12 A+ F F +0 C- B+ A
 Tue, Nov 11 170 Ohio W 90 - 60 93%  +15  3 - 0 +26 +16 B A+ A +10 A+ F A+
 Fri, Nov 14 133 North Texas W 80 - 49 90%  +23  4 - 0 +30 +15 C A+ D- +16 A+ A+ F
 Wed, Nov 19 126 Arkansas St. W 85 - 72 89%  +7  5 - 0 +12 +12 B A+ F -0 B+ C+ F
 Wed, Nov 26 104 Wichita St. W 70 - 65 77%  +3  6 - 0 +10 +0 F B- A +10 A A+ A
 Thu, Nov 27 68 Virginia Tech W 77 - 66 64%  +8  7 - 0 +20 +11 A+ A+ F +9 A+ A+ C-
 Fri, Nov 28 7 Vanderbilt L 71 - 96 23%  -13  7 - 1 -5 +5 A- C F -8 B+ F F
 Sun, Dec 7 125 @Davidson W 70 - 61 76%  +1  8 - 1 +14 +7 B- A- C +8 A+ A+ D-
 Sun, Dec 14 63 Boise St. L 67 - 68 64%  -6  8 - 2 +8 +2 F B+ B- +6 C A+ A+
 Fri, Dec 19 106 Florida Atlantic W 88 - 75 85%  +10  9 - 2 +14 +8 C A C +5 A+ C+ C+
 Mon, Dec 22 96 Northern Iowa W 63 - 58 83%  -2  10 - 2 +7 +4 F A+ B- +4 A- C+ D
 Sun, Dec 28 122 @Loyola Marymount W 78 - 73 75%  +1  11 - 2 1 - 0 +10 +24 A+ A+ A+ -13 C F F
 Tue, Dec 30 274 @Pepperdine W 72 - 45 92%  +12  12 - 2 2 - 0 +23 +10 B+ C+ C+ +17 A+ C+ B-
 Fri, Jan 2 238 Portland W 78 - 57 96%  +14  13 - 2 3 - 0 +14 +9 A+ C B- +6 A+ A+ F
 Sun, Jan 4 120 Seattle W 93 - 76 88%  +0  14 - 2 4 - 0 +17 +32 A+ A+ A+ -14 D B- F
 Sat, Jan 10 145 Washington St. W 79 - 64 92% 
 Tue, Jan 13 100 @San Francisco W 71 - 67 66% 
 Sat, Jan 17 61 @Santa Clara W 75 - 74 52% 
 Wed, Jan 21 182 Oregon St. W 78 - 61 94% 
 Sat, Jan 24 238 @Portland W 80 - 66 90% 
 Sat, Jan 31 10 @Gonzaga L 70 - 81 16% 
 Wed, Feb 4 222 San Diego W 84 - 65 96% 
 Sat, Feb 7 100 San Francisco W 74 - 64 83% 
 Wed, Feb 11 274 Pepperdine W 80 - 58 98% 
 Sat, Feb 14 144 @Pacific W 75 - 66 78% 
 Wed, Feb 18 120 @Seattle W 72 - 65 73% 
 Sat, Feb 21 145 @Washington St. W 76 - 67 78% 
 Wed, Feb 25 61 Santa Clara W 77 - 71 72% 
 Sat, Feb 28 10 Gonzaga L 73 - 78 33% 
Totals 24 - 6 14 - 4 +12 +7 B A+ B- +6 A B+ D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.4 6.7 5.7 0.9 16.0 1st
2nd 0.2 2.6 10.5 20.0 20.7 8.7 62.7 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.2 5.7 6.6 2.9 0.3 18.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.6 0.0 2.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 3.8 8.9 17.2 23.1 23.4 15.4 5.7 0.9 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
17-1 100.0% 5.7    3.5 2.2
16-2 43.7% 6.7    2.3 4.4 0.1
15-3 10.1% 2.4    0.4 1.7 0.3
14-4 1.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.0% 16.0 7.1 8.4 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.9% 98.4% 45.7% 52.7% 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.0%
17-1 5.7% 90.6% 30.1% 60.5% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.5 86.6%
16-2 15.4% 74.8% 24.3% 50.5% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.6 2.9 3.3 2.4 0.0 3.9 66.7%
15-3 23.4% 57.3% 20.6% 36.7% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.1 4.5 5.8 0.1 10.0 46.2%
14-4 23.1% 42.5% 16.7% 25.8% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.6 6.2 0.1 13.3 31.0%
13-5 17.2% 27.7% 12.1% 15.6% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.6 0.2 12.4 17.7%
12-6 8.9% 18.1% 9.3% 8.8% 11.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 0.1 7.3 9.7%
11-7 3.8% 9.4% 6.2% 3.1% 11.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 3.5 3.3%
10-8 1.2% 3.8% 2.1% 1.7% 11.1 0.0 0.0 1.1 1.7%
9-9 0.3% 6.7% 5.0% 1.7% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.8%
8-10 0.1% 0.1
7-11
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 47.6% 17.7% 29.9% 9.8 52.4 36.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 4.0 2.4 7.1 21.4 38.1 21.4 6.0 2.4 1.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 97.7% 6.5 4.5 22.7 19.3 31.8 13.6 4.5 1.1