St. Mary's
West Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.3#53
Expected Predictive Rating+10.5#63
Pace60.0#354
Improvement-0.7#230

Offense
Total Offense+5.1#58
First Shot+1.7#123
After Offensive Rebound+3.5#21
Layup/Dunks+4.0#49
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#198
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#276
Freethrows+1.5#93
Improvement-2.5#335

Defense
Total Defense+5.2#50
First Shot+3.4#77
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#58
Layups/Dunks+1.2#120
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#298
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#68
Freethrows+0.9#117
Improvement+1.8#56
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 1.5% 1.5% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.4% 27.8% 14.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 19.8% 20.0% 9.7%
Average Seed 9.8 9.8 10.4
.500 or above 99.8% 99.8% 98.1%
.500 or above in Conference 95.6% 96.0% 81.7%
Conference Champion 8.1% 8.2% 2.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four8.5% 8.6% 5.9%
First Round23.3% 23.6% 11.7%
Second Round10.4% 10.6% 4.6%
Sweet Sixteen3.0% 3.0% 1.7%
Elite Eight1.1% 1.1% 0.3%
Final Four0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Pacific (Home) - 97.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 22 - 4
Quad 25 - 47 - 8
Quad 35 - 112 - 9
Quad 410 - 022 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 209   Towson W 76-69 92%     1 - 0 +1.6 +8.0 -5.9
  Nov 07, 2024 172   Chattanooga W 86-74 90%     2 - 0 +8.4 +17.5 -8.0
  Nov 12, 2024 148   Akron W 87-68 88%     3 - 0 +16.3 +12.2 +3.9
  Nov 17, 2024 40   Nebraska W 77-74 45%     4 - 0 +14.5 +17.3 -2.5
  Nov 23, 2024 271   Cal Poly W 80-66 95%     5 - 0 +5.1 +0.0 +4.8
  Nov 28, 2024 71   USC W 71-36 59%     6 - 0 +42.8 +12.1 +35.5
  Nov 29, 2024 59   Arizona St. L 64-68 54%     6 - 1 +5.3 -0.5 +5.7
  Dec 03, 2024 226   Texas San Antonio W 82-74 OT 93%     7 - 1 +1.5 -0.8 +1.7
  Dec 07, 2024 65   @ Utah W 72-63 47%     8 - 1 +20.1 +5.6 +14.6
  Dec 14, 2024 58   Boise St. L 65-67 OT 54%     8 - 2 +7.4 +1.9 +5.3
  Dec 19, 2024 195   Merrimack W 73-68 91%     9 - 2 +0.3 +11.8 -10.7
  Dec 22, 2024 47   Utah St. L 68-75 60%     9 - 3 +0.8 +2.8 -2.4
  Dec 28, 2024 301   Pacific W 78-57 98%    
  Jan 02, 2025 204   Pepperdine W 75-60 92%    
  Jan 04, 2025 314   @ Portland W 76-60 93%    
  Jan 07, 2025 157   Loyola Marymount W 72-59 89%    
  Jan 11, 2025 316   @ San Diego W 75-59 93%    
  Jan 18, 2025 204   @ Pepperdine W 72-63 80%    
  Jan 23, 2025 61   San Francisco W 67-62 67%    
  Jan 25, 2025 74   @ Washington St. L 69-70 49%    
  Jan 29, 2025 72   @ Santa Clara L 69-70 48%    
  Feb 01, 2025 4   Gonzaga L 69-76 27%    
  Feb 06, 2025 61   @ San Francisco L 64-65 46%    
  Feb 08, 2025 69   @ Oregon St. L 64-65 48%    
  Feb 11, 2025 72   Santa Clara W 72-66 70%    
  Feb 15, 2025 74   Washington St. W 73-67 70%    
  Feb 19, 2025 314   Portland W 79-57 98%    
  Feb 22, 2025 4   @ Gonzaga L 66-79 13%    
  Feb 27, 2025 157   @ Loyola Marymount W 69-62 74%    
  Mar 01, 2025 69   Oregon St. W 67-62 69%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.9 2.6 1.1 0.2 8.1 1st
2nd 0.2 2.8 9.5 11.6 6.0 1.2 31.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.7 9.4 7.6 1.7 0.1 21.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 2.0 7.6 5.4 0.8 0.0 15.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.4 5.4 4.3 0.6 11.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.4 2.6 0.4 0.0 7.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 0.9 0.1 3.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.8 5.8 10.2 15.1 18.1 18.0 14.4 8.9 3.8 1.1 0.2 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.1    0.9 0.2
16-2 68.5% 2.6    1.5 1.1 0.0
15-3 32.2% 2.9    1.0 1.6 0.2
14-4 8.1% 1.2    0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0
13-5 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.1% 8.1 3.8 3.6 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 98.8% 38.4% 60.5% 3.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.1%
17-1 1.1% 98.0% 27.4% 70.6% 5.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.2%
16-2 3.8% 88.7% 25.7% 63.1% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.4 84.9%
15-3 8.9% 70.3% 20.9% 49.4% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.1 1.3 0.0 2.6 62.4%
14-4 14.4% 48.3% 14.9% 33.4% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.5 3.2 0.1 7.5 39.3%
13-5 18.0% 28.7% 10.3% 18.4% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.2 0.2 12.8 20.5%
12-6 18.1% 14.6% 6.4% 8.2% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.9 0.2 15.5 8.8%
11-7 15.1% 7.6% 4.4% 3.2% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.1 13.9 3.4%
10-8 10.2% 4.2% 3.2% 1.0% 11.1 0.0 0.4 0.1 9.8 1.1%
9-9 5.8% 2.5% 2.2% 0.3% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.7 0.3%
8-10 2.8% 1.6% 1.6% 0.1% 11.5 0.0 0.0 2.8 0.1%
7-11 1.1% 1.5% 1.5% 11.8 0.0 0.0 1.1
6-12 0.3% 0.6% 0.6% 12.0 0.0 0.3
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 27.4% 9.5% 17.9% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 2.0 3.4 7.3 11.1 0.8 72.6 19.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.6 18.2 21.2 45.5 9.1 6.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 4.3 12.1 18.2 33.3 18.2 12.1 3.0 3.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 95.0% 4.9 5.0 10.0 25.0 20.0 25.0 5.0 5.0