St. Mary's
West Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +11.9 #42
Expected Predictive Rating +13.6 #38
Pace 64.2 #303
Improvement -3.0 #304

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #65 B- B C+ A- C+
Defense #35 B+ B+ D+ B+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #94 1.19 #127 +2.6 #99
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #190 0.69 #284 -0.9 #227
Three Pointers 38% #238 1.15 #24 +1.2 #135
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #92 +3.0 #92
Freethrows 0.34 #70 83% #1 0.28 #11
Second Chance 37.4% #25 1.06 #124 0.40 #42
Turnovers 16.1% #141
Total Offense +5.4 #65

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #181 1.01 #30 +2.7 #93
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #44 0.73 #131 -1.7 #307
Three Pointers 36% #325 0.87 #24 +5.4 #9
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #26 +6.4 #26
Freethrows 0.23 #20 74% #253 0.17 #31
Second Chance 23.9% #13 0.99 #117 0.24 #25
Turnovers 15.0% #284
Total Defense +6.5 #35

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.6% #151 -1.3% #72
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.1% #89 -11.3% #24
Possession Length 17.9 #243 17.7 #261
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #188 0.19 #248
Improvement -2.2 #309 -0.8 #236

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.6% 1.6% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 50.2% 51.0% 36.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 42.7% 43.4% 29.8%
Average Seed 10.0 10.0 10.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 5.3% 5.6% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four20.0% 20.1% 17.8%
First Round40.6% 41.2% 28.8%
Second Round16.0% 16.5% 7.8%
Sweet Sixteen3.4% 3.5% 1.9%
Elite Eight0.9% 0.9% 0.6%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.4%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Diego (Home) - 95.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 5
Quad 26 - 27 - 7
Quad 310 - 016 - 7
Quad 49 - 025 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 133 St. Thomas W 84 - 58 89% +11  1 - 0 +25 +16 A+ C- B- +11 B- A+ C
 Fri, Nov 7 275 Chattanooga W 87 - 66 97% +12  2 - 0 +12 +13 A+ D- F -0 C B+ B+
 Tue, Nov 11 199 Ohio W 90 - 60 94% +15  3 - 0 +24 +15 B- A+ A- +10 A+ D A-
 Fri, Nov 14 147 North Texas W 80 - 49 90% +23  4 - 0 +29 +15 C- A+ C- +15 A+ A+ F
 Wed, Nov 19 168 Arkansas St. W 85 - 72 92% +7  5 - 0 +9 +11 B A+ F -1 B B F
 Wed, Nov 26 99 Wichita St. W 70 - 65 75% +3  6 - 0 +10 +1 F B- B+ +9 A- A+ A-
 Thu, Nov 27 60 Virginia Tech W 77 - 66 60% +8  7 - 0 +20 +11 A A D- +9 A+ A+ C-
 Fri, Nov 28 12 Vanderbilt L 71 - 96 26% -13  7 - 1 -6 +4 B+ C D -10 C+ F D-
 Sun, Dec 7 117 @Davidson W 70 - 61 71% +1  8 - 1 +15 +8 C+ B C+ +8 A A+ D-
 Sun, Dec 14 62 Boise St. L 67 - 68 62% -6  8 - 2 +8 +0 F C+ B- +8 C A+ A+
 Fri, Dec 19 109 Florida Atlantic W 88 - 75 85% +10  9 - 2 +14 +8 C+ B+ C +4 A+ C- C
 Mon, Dec 22 110 Northern Iowa W 63 - 58 85% -2  10 - 2 +6 +4 F A+ C- +3 B B D+
 Sun, Dec 28 170 @Loyola Marymount W 78 - 73 82% +1  11 - 2 1 - 0 +7 +23 A+ A+ A+ -15 D+ F F
 Tue, Dec 30 283 @Pepperdine W 72 - 45 92% +12  12 - 2 2 - 0 +23 +10 B C+ C+ +17 A+ B B
 Fri, Jan 2 232 Portland W 78 - 57 95% +14  13 - 2 3 - 0 +14 +10 A C C+ +6 A+ A F
 Sun, Jan 4 124 Seattle W 93 - 76 88% +0  14 - 2 4 - 0 +16 +33 A+ A+ A+ -16 D B- F
 Sat, Jan 10 122 Washington St. W 88 - 82 87% +9  15 - 2 5 - 0 +6 +12 A+ F+ F -6 D B- C+
 Tue, Jan 13 97 @San Francisco W 82 - 68 64% +9  16 - 2 6 - 0 +22 +17 A A D+ +6 B- A- D
 Sat, Jan 17 46 @Santa Clara L 54 - 62 40% -7  16 - 3 6 - 1 +7 -11 F C+ B- +17 A+ A+ C-
 Wed, Jan 21 184 Oregon St. W 81 - 51 93% +14  17 - 3 7 - 1 +25 +15 C+ A+ A +14 A+ A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 24 232 @Portland W 75 - 69 88% +4  18 - 3 8 - 1 +5 +8 B+ D- C- -2 B- B- F
 Sat, Jan 31 11 @Gonzaga L 65 - 73 16% -3  18 - 4 8 - 2 +15 +5 C- D+ A- +9 A+ C C+
 Wed, Feb 4 202 San Diego W 83 - 66 95%
 Sat, Feb 7 97 San Francisco W 75 - 65 82%
 Wed, Feb 11 283 Pepperdine W 79 - 57 98%
 Sat, Feb 14 125 @Pacific W 73 - 66 74%
 Wed, Feb 18 124 @Seattle W 69 - 62 73%
 Sat, Feb 21 122 @Washington St. W 77 - 71 73%
 Wed, Feb 25 46 Santa Clara W 76 - 73 62%
 Sat, Feb 28 11 Gonzaga L 71 - 76 34%
Totals 24 - 6 14 - 4 +12 +5 B- B C+ +6 B+ B+ D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.0 4.3 5.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 3.2 14.2 21.2 3.6 42.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.2 9.2 18.9 17.6 3.5 51.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.4 2.6 9.5 22.1 31.7 25.6 7.9 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 54.0% 4.3    0.8 2.8 0.7
15-3 4.0% 1.0    0.0 0.4 0.6
14-4 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.3% 5.3 0.8 3.3 1.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 7.9% 87.5% 27.6% 59.8% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.4 0.6 1.0 82.7%
15-3 25.6% 66.6% 16.8% 49.8% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.5 5.4 6.0 0.1 8.6 59.8%
14-4 31.7% 49.8% 11.6% 38.2% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.7 5.0 8.4 0.2 15.9 43.2%
13-5 22.1% 36.3% 9.5% 26.8% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 5.8 0.2 14.1 29.6%
12-6 9.5% 21.3% 7.6% 13.7% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.6 0.1 7.5 14.8%
11-7 2.6% 13.2% 4.6% 8.6% 11.1 0.3 0.0 2.3 9.0%
10-8 0.4% 7.4% 4.9% 2.5% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.6%
9-9 0.0% 0.0 0.0
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 50.2% 13.1% 37.1% 10.0 49.8 42.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.2% 100.0% 6.3 1.1 2.5 24.0 31.3 24.9 11.9 3.4 0.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.4% 84.3% 8.8 0.3 2.7 11.1 17.6 25.3 21.2 6.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.4% 80.3% 9.6 1.3 3.0 8.5 21.2 29.7 16.7