Stetson
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.4 #329
Expected Predictive Rating -9.1 #312
Pace 68.7 #179
Improvement +3.6 #40

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #310 D+ D D+ C- C-
Defense #320 D- D+ C- B- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #320 1.18 #145 -2.8 #279
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #144 0.70 #272 -0.1 #177
Three Pointers 45% #97 0.90 #318 -0.5 #206
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #280 -3.4 #280
Freethrows 0.29 #233 69% #275 0.20 #243
Second Chance 25.3% #325 0.95 #275 0.24 #331
Turnovers 18.4% #295
Total Offense -5.4 #310

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #187 1.36 #360 -3.9 #309
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #240 0.87 #331 -0.2 #204
Three Pointers 43% #114 1.02 #193 -1.1 #240
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #329 -5.2 #328
Freethrows 0.27 #86 72% #155 0.20 #92
Second Chance 31.5% #220 1.16 #328 0.36 #304
Turnovers 15.3% #257
Total Defense -5.1 #320

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.2% #263 0.6% #219
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.5% #278 9.6% #331
Possession Length 18.1 #264 16.3 #38
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #301 0.19 #242
Improvement +2.0 #82 +1.7 #89

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.2% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 13.6% 28.2% 7.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 9.7% 2.1% 13.2%
First Four0.8% 1.1% 0.6%
First Round0.3% 0.5% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bellarmine (Away) - 31.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 30 - 70 - 12
Quad 49 - 99 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 119 @Rhode Island L 62 - 93 7% -17  0 - 1 -25 -9 D- F F -14 D- F C-
 Mon, Nov 10 40 @Miami (FL) L 61 - 102 2% -18  0 - 2 -25 -12 F C- D -9 D- B+ C
 Sun, Nov 16 277 @Western Carolina L 65 - 76 25% -8  0 - 3 -14 -15 F C- C+ +1 F A- A+
 Wed, Nov 19 253 Howard W 64 - 60 42% +10  1 - 3 -4 -8 D- F F +4 A- A+ F
 Sat, Nov 22 356 VMI W 99 - 80 75% +9  2 - 3 +2 +22 A+ B C+ -19 F D- F
 Tue, Nov 25 144 Wright St. L 62 - 79 21% -15  2 - 4 -19 -8 D C+ D- -12 F F+ B+
 Sat, Nov 29 284 Southern Utah L 68 - 70 37% +3  2 - 5 -9 -7 D+ C F -2 C- C C
 Sun, Nov 30 220 @Robert Morris L 62 - 80 17% -12  2 - 6 -18 -3 F D+ B+ -18 F F F
 Tue, Dec 2 65 @Grand Canyon L 45 - 67 3% -4  2 - 7 -10 -16 D- D- F +5 B D+ A-
 Sat, Dec 6 91 @South Carolina L 51 - 82 5% -15  2 - 8 -22 -12 F D A- -13 F F A+
 Mon, Dec 22 55 @Oklahoma L 54 - 107 3% -25  2 - 9 -40 -13 F C- F -29 F F D+
 Thu, Jan 1 326 @North Alabama W 70 - 67 38% +0  3 - 9 1 - 0 -4 -2 B+ F F -2 B- D C+
 Sat, Jan 3 219 @Central Arkansas L 73 - 93 17% -13  3 - 10 1 - 1 -20 +2 B+ C- D- -23 F F C
 Thu, Jan 8 178 Lipscomb W 91 - 83 27% +11  4 - 10 2 - 1 +4 +8 A+ F B+ -5 D- B- B-
 Sat, Jan 10 175 Austin Peay L 69 - 81 27% -7  4 - 11 2 - 2 -16 -4 F+ B C -12 C- F+ F
 Thu, Jan 15 325 West Georgia W 95 - 86 60% +4  5 - 11 3 - 2 -4 +11 A+ D+ F -15 D F F
 Sat, Jan 17 208 Queens L 81 - 87 33% -8  5 - 12 3 - 3 -12 +1 C D+ D+ -13 D B- F
 Thu, Jan 22 178 @Lipscomb L 74 - 79 OT 13% -5  5 - 13 3 - 4 -3 -8 D+ F F +5 B- A+ D-
 Fri, Jan 23 175 @Austin Peay L 65 - 73 13% -0  5 - 14 3 - 5 -6 -2 D D- B- -4 C F B-
 Thu, Jan 29 351 @North Florida W 84 - 77 47% +6  6 - 14 4 - 5 -3 +1 C- F A- -3 B- D- D
 Sat, Jan 31 326 North Alabama L 66 - 68 61% -3  6 - 15 4 - 6 -15 -7 F C+ F+ -9 F C C
 Thu, Feb 5 305 @Bellarmine L 75 - 80 31%
 Sat, Feb 7 265 @Eastern Kentucky L 73 - 81 23%
 Thu, Feb 12 295 Jacksonville W 69 - 68 51%
 Sat, Feb 14 223 @Florida Gulf Coast L 70 - 80 17%
 Thu, Feb 19 219 Central Arkansas L 73 - 77 35%
 Sat, Feb 21 351 North Florida W 87 - 82 68%
 Thu, Feb 26 295 @Jacksonville L 65 - 71 29%
 Sat, Feb 28 223 Florida Gulf Coast L 73 - 77 36%
Totals 9 - 20 7 - 11 -10 -5 D+ D D+ -5 D- D+ C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.6 4.8 2.1 0.2 8.7 5th
6th 1.8 8.5 4.2 0.2 14.7 6th
7th 0.4 7.8 7.2 0.4 0.0 15.8 7th
8th 0.0 3.7 11.0 1.4 0.0 16.1 8th
9th 1.0 10.7 5.2 0.1 16.9 9th
10th 0.2 5.4 8.8 0.7 15.1 10th
11th 1.5 5.5 1.1 0.0 8.1 11th
12th 1.5 1.2 0.0 2.8 12th
Total 3.2 13.1 24.7 26.6 18.8 9.8 3.2 0.6 0.1 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.1% 0.1
11-7 0.6% 6.6% 6.6% 16.0 0.0 0.6
10-8 3.2% 5.2% 5.2% 16.0 0.2 3.0
9-9 9.8% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.2 9.6
8-10 18.8% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 18.6
7-11 26.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.2 26.4
6-12 24.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 24.6
5-13 13.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.1
4-14 3.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.2
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 16.0 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.6%