Stetson
Atlantic Sun
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.9#348
Expected Predictive Rating-20.2#362
Pace69.4#168
Improvement+1.0#119

Offense
Total Offense-4.7#307
First Shot-3.9#290
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#239
Layup/Dunks-1.3#230
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#297
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#144
Freethrows-1.5#275
Improvement+1.1#104

Defense
Total Defense-7.2#356
First Shot-6.0#349
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#285
Layups/Dunks-3.0#297
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#226
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#322
Freethrows+1.2#96
Improvement-0.1#184
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 n/a 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 9.3% 23.3% 9.3%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 29.6% 0.0% 29.6%
First Four0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida (Away) - 0.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 30 - 71 - 11
Quad 45 - 136 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 294   Nebraska Omaha L 76-79 43%     0 - 1 -13.2 -3.5 -9.7
  Nov 11, 2024 354   @ The Citadel L 52-74 41%     0 - 2 -31.7 -22.8 -9.7
  Nov 16, 2024 35   @ Oklahoma L 64-85 1%     0 - 3 -5.7 -2.8 -2.9
  Nov 21, 2024 208   Toledo L 78-103 18%     0 - 4 -27.3 -3.2 -23.0
  Nov 22, 2024 181   East Carolina L 64-71 15%     0 - 5 -8.0 -7.0 -1.3
  Nov 23, 2024 165   La Salle L 77-92 14%     0 - 6 -15.4 +1.1 -15.8
  Dec 03, 2024 169   @ South Florida L 72-74 9%     0 - 7 +0.5 -0.7 +1.3
  Dec 08, 2024 235   Mercer L 83-89 OT 32%     0 - 8 -13.1 -3.6 -8.8
  Dec 14, 2024 261   Florida International L 72-81 36%     0 - 9 -17.4 -3.2 -14.1
  Dec 17, 2024 56   @ LSU L 53-99 2%     0 - 10 -33.6 -13.0 -20.5
  Dec 29, 2024 7   @ Florida L 62-96 0.1%   
  Jan 02, 2025 265   @ Queens L 73-82 19%    
  Jan 04, 2025 341   @ West Georgia L 71-75 37%    
  Jan 09, 2025 338   Central Arkansas W 74-72 58%    
  Jan 11, 2025 198   North Alabama L 71-78 25%    
  Jan 16, 2025 265   Queens L 76-79 38%    
  Jan 18, 2025 341   West Georgia W 74-72 59%    
  Jan 23, 2025 229   @ Eastern Kentucky L 72-83 15%    
  Jan 25, 2025 345   @ Bellarmine L 74-77 38%    
  Jan 29, 2025 207   @ North Florida L 75-88 12%    
  Feb 01, 2025 188   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 64-77 11%    
  Feb 06, 2025 211   Jacksonville L 69-75 28%    
  Feb 08, 2025 229   Eastern Kentucky L 75-80 32%    
  Feb 13, 2025 108   @ Lipscomb L 64-83 4%    
  Feb 15, 2025 283   @ Austin Peay L 63-71 22%    
  Feb 18, 2025 207   North Florida L 78-85 28%    
  Feb 20, 2025 188   Florida Gulf Coast L 67-74 25%    
  Feb 24, 2025 345   Bellarmine W 77-74 60%    
  Feb 26, 2025 211   @ Jacksonville L 66-78 13%    
Projected Record 5 - 24 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.1 0.6 0.0 4.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.5 1.3 0.1 0.0 7.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.9 5.3 2.2 0.2 0.0 11.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 4.2 7.2 3.4 0.5 0.0 16.0 9th
10th 0.0 1.1 5.1 7.7 4.0 0.5 0.0 18.5 10th
11th 0.1 1.5 5.7 7.4 3.6 0.6 0.0 18.9 11th
12th 0.7 3.2 6.2 5.8 2.4 0.4 0.0 18.7 12th
Total 0.7 3.3 7.7 12.7 15.7 16.4 15.0 11.5 7.8 4.7 2.6 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 40.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 41.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 9.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.0% 12.5% 12.5% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.2% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2
12-6 0.5% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.5
11-7 1.3% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 1.2
10-8 2.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 2.6
9-9 4.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 4.7
8-10 7.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.8
7-11 11.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.5
6-12 15.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.0
5-13 16.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 16.4
4-14 15.7% 15.7
3-15 12.7% 12.7
2-16 7.7% 7.7
1-17 3.3% 3.3
0-18 0.7% 0.7
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.7%