Stetson
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -11.5 #337
Expected Predictive Rating -7.4 #273
Pace 69.0 #188
Improvement +2.1 #72

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #309 D F D+ D+ D+
Defense #340 F D- C B- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #336 1.15 #187 -4.5 #318
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #161 0.79 #128 +0.7 #139
Three Pointers 48% #56 0.86 #324 -0.2 #187
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #290 -4.0 #290
Freethrows 16.2 #246 69% #293 11.1 #273
Second Chance 23.7% #338 0.99 #247 0.24 #330
Turnovers 18.1% #273
Total Offense -5.2 #309

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #184 1.34 #348 -3.7 #302
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #266 0.86 #319 +0.2 #174
Three Pointers 44% #100 1.13 #322 -4.0 #322
1st FG Attempt 1.17 #354 -7.5 #354
Freethrows 15.5 #93 71% #120 11.0 #286
Second Chance 31.5% #213 1.21 #335 0.38 #310
Turnovers 16.3% #200
Total Defense -6.2 #340

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.3% #270 0.8% #245
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.6% #283 13.9% #352
Possession Length 18.1 #266 16.3 #44
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #317 0.19 #240
Improvement +2.4 #43 -0.3 #214

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 1.2% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.9% 2.3% 0.5%
.500 or above in Conference 22.5% 39.2% 16.6%
Conference Champion 0.4% 1.1% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 11.9% 5.2% 14.3%
First Four0.6% 1.0% 0.5%
First Round0.4% 0.7% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Austin Peay (Home) - 26.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 61 - 10
Quad 49 - 119 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 141 @Rhode Island L 62 - 93 8%  -17  0 - 1 -27 -10 D- F F -15 F F D
 Mon, Nov 10 36 @Miami (FL) L 61 - 102 1%  -18  0 - 2 -24 -11 F D D+ -9 F A C
 Sun, Nov 16 283 @Western Carolina L 65 - 76 23%  -8  0 - 3 -15 -12 F C B -2 F B+ A+
 Wed, Nov 19 271 Howard W 64 - 60 42%  +10  1 - 3 -5 -9 F F F +3 A+ B+ F
 Sat, Nov 22 332 VMI W 99 - 80 59%  +9  2 - 3 +5 +24 A+ A- C+ -18 F F F
 Tue, Nov 25 148 Wright St. L 62 - 79 20%  -15  2 - 4 -19 -7 D C+ D -14 F F B+
 Sat, Nov 29 329 Southern Utah L 68 - 70 46%  +3  2 - 5 -13 -8 F C- F -4 D C- C-
 Sun, Nov 30 206 @Robert Morris L 62 - 80 13%  -12  2 - 6 -18 -3 F D B+ -18 F F F
 Tue, Dec 2 83 @Grand Canyon L 45 - 67 3%  -4  2 - 7 -12 -18 F F F +5 B D+ A
 Sat, Dec 6 72 @South Carolina L 51 - 82 3%  -15  2 - 8 -20 -12 F F A -11 F F A+
 Mon, Dec 22 48 @Oklahoma L 54 - 107 2%  -25  2 - 9 -39 -13 F C- F -28 F F C
 Thu, Jan 1 293 @North Alabama W 70 - 67 25%  +0  3 - 9 1 - 0 -1 +0 A F F -1 C D+ B-
 Sat, Jan 3 261 @Central Arkansas L 73 - 93 20%  -13  3 - 10 1 - 1 -23 +1 A D F -24 F F C
 Thu, Jan 8 177 Lipscomb W 91 - 83 25%  +11  4 - 10 2 - 1 +4 +9 A+ F A+ -6 F B B
 Sat, Jan 10 186 Austin Peay L 70 - 77 26% 
 Thu, Jan 15 297 West Georgia L 75 - 76 47% 
 Sat, Jan 17 207 Queens L 77 - 83 29% 
 Thu, Jan 22 177 @Lipscomb L 69 - 82 11% 
 Sat, Jan 24 186 @Austin Peay L 67 - 80 12% 
 Thu, Jan 29 350 @North Florida L 81 - 83 44% 
 Sat, Jan 31 293 North Alabama L 72 - 73 46% 
 Thu, Feb 5 280 @Bellarmine L 73 - 81 24% 
 Sat, Feb 7 254 @Eastern Kentucky L 72 - 81 20% 
 Thu, Feb 12 328 Jacksonville W 70 - 68 57% 
 Sat, Feb 14 189 @Florida Gulf Coast L 71 - 84 12% 
 Thu, Feb 19 261 Central Arkansas L 73 - 76 39% 
 Sat, Feb 21 350 North Florida W 84 - 80 65% 
 Thu, Feb 26 328 @Jacksonville L 67 - 71 36% 
 Sat, Feb 28 189 Florida Gulf Coast L 74 - 81 28% 
Totals 9 - 20 7 - 11 -11 -5 D F D+ -6 F D- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.6 0.1 1.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.8 1.4 0.2 0.0 3.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.1 2.7 0.6 0.0 5.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 2.4 4.6 1.6 0.1 0.0 8.7 6th
7th 0.1 2.2 6.5 3.0 0.2 12.0 7th
8th 0.1 2.0 7.3 5.2 0.7 0.0 15.3 8th
9th 0.1 1.8 7.1 7.0 1.3 0.1 17.2 9th
10th 0.1 1.3 6.0 6.9 1.8 0.1 16.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.9 4.6 5.1 1.7 0.1 12.4 11th
12th 0.7 2.2 2.2 0.7 0.1 5.8 12th
Total 0.7 3.2 8.1 13.7 17.8 18.6 15.5 10.7 6.5 3.3 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 77.4% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
13-5 32.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 9.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.2% 6.5% 6.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.5% 9.7% 9.7% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.4
12-6 1.4% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 1.4
11-7 3.3% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1 3.1
10-8 6.5% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.2 6.3
9-9 10.7% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 10.6
8-10 15.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 15.4
7-11 18.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 18.5
6-12 17.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 17.8
5-13 13.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.7
4-14 8.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.1
3-15 3.2% 3.2
2-16 0.7% 0.7
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 16.0 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.7%