Stetson
Atlantic Sun
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.2#334
Expected Predictive Rating-11.0#331
Pace68.9#162
Improvement+2.1#87

Offense
Total Offense-3.5#266
First Shot-1.9#235
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#278
Layup/Dunks-1.3#228
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#311
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#113
Freethrows-0.2#184
Improvement+1.7#90

Defense
Total Defense-7.7#355
First Shot-7.1#354
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#241
Layups/Dunks-4.2#324
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#182
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#319
Freethrows+0.8#125
Improvement+0.4#165
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 17.0% 37.5% 10.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Jacksonville (Home) - 24.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 81 - 13
Quad 46 - 108 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 212   Nebraska Omaha L 76-79 28%     0 - 1 -8.2 -2.2 -5.9
  Nov 11, 2024 358   @ The Citadel L 52-74 52%     0 - 2 -33.6 -23.2 -11.3
  Nov 16, 2024 34   @ Oklahoma L 64-85 1%     0 - 3 -5.3 -2.7 -2.6
  Nov 21, 2024 201   Toledo L 78-103 19%     0 - 4 -27.0 -4.0 -21.8
  Nov 22, 2024 150   East Carolina L 64-71 13%     0 - 5 -6.2 -6.3 -0.1
  Nov 23, 2024 193   La Salle L 77-92 18%     0 - 6 -16.5 +0.9 -16.8
  Dec 03, 2024 177   @ South Florida L 72-74 12%     0 - 7 -0.3 +0.0 -0.3
  Dec 08, 2024 222   Mercer L 83-89 OT 30%     0 - 8 -11.9 -1.7 -9.4
  Dec 14, 2024 243   Florida International L 72-81 35%     0 - 9 -16.4 -1.9 -14.4
  Dec 17, 2024 71   @ LSU L 53-99 3%     0 - 10 -35.7 -13.8 -21.9
  Dec 29, 2024 4   @ Florida L 45-85 1%     0 - 11 -17.6 -20.9 +5.9
  Jan 02, 2025 213   @ Queens L 87-96 16%     0 - 12 0 - 1 -9.4 +6.0 -14.6
  Jan 04, 2025 345   @ West Georgia W 78-62 43%     1 - 12 1 - 1 +6.6 +1.3 +5.5
  Jan 09, 2025 341   Central Arkansas W 75-65 62%     2 - 12 2 - 1 -4.3 +5.4 -8.4
  Jan 11, 2025 155   North Alabama L 64-92 19%     2 - 13 2 - 2 -29.9 -5.1 -27.5
  Jan 16, 2025 213   Queens L 60-95 29%     2 - 14 2 - 3 -40.4 -18.8 -20.1
  Jan 18, 2025 345   West Georgia W 82-78 62%     3 - 14 3 - 3 -10.3 +5.5 -15.7
  Jan 23, 2025 231   @ Eastern Kentucky W 67-66 18%     4 - 14 4 - 3 -0.5 -2.3 +2.0
  Jan 25, 2025 356   @ Bellarmine W 81-76 49%     5 - 14 5 - 3 -6.0 +1.5 -7.4
  Jan 29, 2025 245   @ North Florida L 100-101 OT 21%     5 - 15 5 - 4 -3.6 +1.6 -5.0
  Feb 01, 2025 164   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 56-82 10%     5 - 16 5 - 5 -23.4 -9.1 -17.5
  Feb 06, 2025 179   Jacksonville L 69-77 24%    
  Feb 08, 2025 231   Eastern Kentucky L 76-81 34%    
  Feb 13, 2025 110   @ Lipscomb L 66-83 5%    
  Feb 15, 2025 296   @ Austin Peay L 68-74 26%    
  Feb 18, 2025 245   North Florida L 83-87 39%    
  Feb 20, 2025 164   Florida Gulf Coast L 68-77 22%    
  Feb 24, 2025 356   Bellarmine W 79-74 69%    
  Feb 26, 2025 179   @ Jacksonville L 66-79 11%    
Projected Record 7 - 22 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 0.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.4 4th
5th 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 3.6 2.3 0.2 7.0 6th
7th 0.0 1.8 8.4 6.6 0.7 17.5 7th
8th 0.1 3.0 13.3 11.9 1.6 29.9 8th
9th 4.6 17.7 14.9 3.3 0.1 40.6 9th
10th 1.6 1.3 0.2 3.0 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 11th
12th 12th
Total 6.3 22.0 30.2 24.5 12.0 3.8 1.0 0.1 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.1% 0.1
11-7 1.0% 1.0
10-8 3.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 3.8
9-9 12.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.0
8-10 24.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 24.5
7-11 30.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 30.1
6-12 22.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 22.0
5-13 6.3% 6.3
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.2 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.9%