Stony Brook
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.6 #276
Expected Predictive Rating -3.7 #229
Pace 62.5 #339
Improvement -5.7 #363

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #305 D+ F C- F C
Defense #225 D+ B- C- D+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #280 0.94 #357 -6.0 #345
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #230 0.79 #129 -0.6 #206
Three Pointers 47% #63 1.03 #171 +3.6 #71
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #260 -3.0 #261
Freethrows 12.4 #350 73% #173 9.0 #346
Second Chance 28.5% #248 0.82 #355 0.23 #334
Turnovers 17.4% #235
Total Offense -4.9 #305

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #189 1.21 #241 -0.9 #211
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #205 0.70 #114 +0.9 #134
Three Pointers 42% #151 1.09 #284 -2.2 #272
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #251 -2.2 #251
Freethrows 19.2 #278 72% #170 13.9 #98
Second Chance 32.3% #243 0.87 #20 0.28 #86
Turnovers 15.9% #220
Total Defense -1.7 #225

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.1% #184 0.3% #188
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.0% #271 4.1% #255
Possession Length 17.9 #236 17.1 #153
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #345 0.18 #222
Improvement -5.5 #364 -0.1 #197

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 14.9 15.6
.500 or above 9.6% 18.9% 6.1%
.500 or above in Conference 8.6% 17.4% 5.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 18.8% 8.9% 22.5%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Wilmington (Home) - 27.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 33 - 94 - 13
Quad 48 - 612 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 339 Maine W 71 - 60 78%  +6  1 - 0 -4 -4 D+ F A+ +0 B- A- F
 Sat, Nov 15 80 @Yale L 79 - 86 7%  -7  1 - 1 +3 +14 A+ C F -12 F A- B
 Thu, Nov 20 247 Brown W 80 - 70 55%  +9  2 - 1 +2 +12 B+ B+ A -9 F D- C
 Mon, Nov 24 144 Pacific L 58 - 86 24%  -17  2 - 2 -27 -12 F F F -16 F A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 25 278 Bethune-Cookman W 61 - 54 50%  -2  3 - 2 +0 -9 F F F +10 A+ B+ B-
 Fri, Nov 28 122 @Loyola Marymount W 71 - 68 13%  +6  4 - 2 +8 +5 B D+ B +3 B D A+
 Sat, Dec 6 129 @Duquesne L 75 - 84 14%  -8  4 - 3 -4 +4 D C A+ -8 F A+ D-
 Tue, Dec 9 139 Columbia W 77 - 73 OT 32%  +8  5 - 3 +2 -6 D- A- F +8 A+ A+ B-
 Sat, Dec 13 323 Central Michigan W 78 - 55 73%  +16  6 - 3 +10 +6 A+ A+ F +6 A+ B F
 Wed, Dec 17 322 Albany L 55 - 71 73%  -8  6 - 4 -29 -22 F F A+ -8 F A+ C
 Sun, Dec 21 140 @Marist L 51 - 70 16%  -13  6 - 5 -15 -12 F F C -4 C C F
 Mon, Dec 29 252 @Hampton L 59 - 62 33%  +2  6 - 6 0 - 1 -5 -8 B F F +2 C D- D+
 Wed, Dec 31 127 @William & Mary L 57 - 76 14%  -6  6 - 7 0 - 2 -14 -8 D- F C -8 F A+ C
 Sat, Jan 3 305 N.C. A&T W 81 - 80 67%  +4  7 - 7 1 - 2 -10 +8 A- C B- -19 D F D
 Thu, Jan 8 248 @Drexel L 37 - 56 32%  -7  7 - 8 1 - 3 -21 -27 F C- C +2 A+ F A-
 Sat, Jan 10 118 UNC Wilmington L 62 - 69 27% 
 Thu, Jan 15 109 Hofstra L 63 - 71 22% 
 Sat, Jan 17 149 College of Charleston L 67 - 71 35% 
 Thu, Jan 22 233 @Northeastern L 69 - 75 30% 
 Thu, Jan 29 199 @Campbell L 69 - 76 25% 
 Sat, Jan 31 163 @Elon L 67 - 76 20% 
 Thu, Feb 5 194 Monmouth L 66 - 67 45% 
 Sat, Feb 7 233 Northeastern W 72 - 71 52% 
 Thu, Feb 12 175 @Towson L 59 - 67 22% 
 Mon, Feb 16 248 Drexel W 64 - 63 55% 
 Sat, Feb 21 252 Hampton W 66 - 65 56% 
 Thu, Feb 26 194 @Monmouth L 63 - 70 25% 
 Sat, Feb 28 109 @Hofstra L 60 - 74 10% 
 Tue, Mar 3 175 Towson L 62 - 64 41% 
Totals 12 - 17 6 - 12 -7 -5 D+ F C- -2 D+ B- C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 3rd
4th 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 2.3 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 2.1 0.6 0.0 4.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.5 1.5 0.1 5.8 7th
8th 0.4 3.7 3.6 0.3 8.1 8th
9th 0.3 3.5 6.0 1.3 0.0 11.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 3.2 7.7 3.2 0.2 14.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 3.4 9.0 5.5 0.6 18.9 11th
12th 0.2 1.5 5.6 9.4 6.3 1.0 0.0 23.9 12th
13th 0.7 2.5 3.7 2.3 0.4 0.0 9.6 13th
Total 0.9 4.0 9.7 15.3 19.2 18.2 14.3 9.8 5.1 2.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 50.0% 0.0    0.0
13-5 33.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 4.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.1% 0.0 0.1
12-6 0.3% 1.6% 1.6% 14.0 0.0 0.3
11-7 0.7% 5.6% 5.6% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.7
10-8 2.4% 1.0% 1.0% 14.6 0.0 0.0 2.4
9-9 5.1% 1.2% 1.2% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.1
8-10 9.8% 0.8% 0.8% 15.3 0.1 0.0 9.8
7-11 14.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 14.2
6-12 18.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 18.1
5-13 19.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 19.2
4-14 15.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.3
3-15 9.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.7
2-16 4.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.0
1-17 0.9% 0.9
0-18
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 15.3 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%