Stony Brook
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -3.0 214
Results Rating -0.7 169
Pace 64.8 279
Improvement +2.4 92

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 231 C D C- D C+
Defense C- 199 C- B- C- C+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 292 D- 51% 325 -4.5 331
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% 297 B- 41% 71 -1.2 245
Three Pointers 49% 29 B- 36% 99 +5.7 29
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.3 146 C -0.3 182
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 177
Second Chance C- 28.1% 244 D- 0.91 329 D 0.26 304
Turnovers C- 17.6% 237
Freethrows D 0.26 322 C 72% 199 D 0.19 313
Total Offense C- -2.1 231

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 45% 248 F+ 15.0% 344
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 20% 249 B+ 2.1% 19
Three Pointers C 83% 216 D 1.5% 320
Total C+ 57% 145 D+ 6.3% 261

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 212 C- 59% 212 -0.1 175
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 202 B+ 33% 29 -1.3 85
Three Pointers 43% 115 D 37% 289 +2.7 307
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.1 174 C- +1.1 230
1st FG Attempt C- 1.04 222
Second Chance C- 32.0% 247 A- 0.88 20 B- 0.28 92
Turnovers C- 15.8% 238
Freethrows C+ 0.29 145 C- 73% 235 C+ 0.21 150
Total Defense C- -0.9 199

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 43% 67 C 11.0% 171
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 32% 299 B- 6.3% 89
Three Pointers C 84% 183 C 0.9% 159
Total C 56% 185 C 5.8% 162

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.4 286 17.1 149
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 325 0.17 192
Improvement +1.1 #131 +1.4 #107

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 241 213 182
Results Rating Rank 229 179 147
Conference Record 9 - 9 10 - 8 11 - 7
Conference Finish 7 4 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4% 6% 3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.4 14.8
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round4% 6% 3%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Monmouth (Away) - 35.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 35 - 65 - 10
Quad 412 - 417 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 343 Maine W 71 - 60 87% +6  99% 1 - 0 C- -4 D- -7 D F A+ B- +3 B B- F
 Sat, Nov 15 85 @Yale L 79 - 86 12% -7  3% 1 - 1 C+ +3 A +12 A+ B- F F+ -9 F+ B- C+
 Thu, Nov 20 267 Brown W 80 - 70 72% +9  89% 2 - 1 C +1 B+ +8 B- A- A D- -7 F D C-
 Mon, Nov 24 117 Pacific L 58 - 86 28% -17  4% 2 - 2 F -25 F -12 F+ D D- F -14 F A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 25 240 Bethune-Cookman W 61 - 54 55% -2  33% 3 - 2 C+ +3 D- -8 D- D- F A+ +11 A A C-
 Fri, Nov 28 148 @Loyola Marymount W 71 - 68 26% +6  69% 4 - 2 B- +7 C +1 B- D+ B- B+ +5 B D- A-
 Sat, Dec 6 110 @Duquesne L 75 - 84 18% -8  4% 4 - 3 C- -3 B- +4 D+ C A+ D- -7 F A+ D+
 Tue, Dec 9 203 Columbia W 77 - 73 OT 59% +8  91% 5 - 3 C -1 F -10 F+ B+ F A +9 B+ A+ B-
 Sat, Dec 13 270 Central Michigan W 78 - 55 72% +16  97% 6 - 3 B+ +14 B- +5 A+ A+ F A +11 A+ B+ F
 Wed, Dec 17 316 Albany L 55 - 71 81% -8  10% 6 - 4 F -28 F -24 F F A- D -6 F A+ D+
 Sun, Dec 21 181 @Marist L 51 - 70 32% -13  8% 6 - 5 F+ -17 F -16 F F C- C- -3 C D+ F
 Mon, Dec 29 259 @Hampton L 59 - 62 48% +2  72% 6 - 6 0 - 1 D+ -6 F -10 B F F B +4 C D D+
 Wed, Dec 31 136 @William & Mary L 57 - 76 24% -6  5% 6 - 7 0 - 2 D- -14 F -13 F+ F D+ D+ -3 F A- B-
 Sat, Jan 3 273 N.C. A&T W 81 - 80 73% +4  71% 7 - 7 1 - 2 D -8 B +6 A- C- B- F -14 C- F D
 Thu, Jan 8 221 @Drexel L 37 - 56 40% -7  17% 7 - 8 1 - 3 F -19 F -27 F C B- B +4 A F B+
 Sat, Jan 10 108 UNC Wilmington L 71 - 75 36% +8  72% 7 - 9 1 - 4 C- -3 C +1 C A+ C- D+ -4 F+ D C+
 Thu, Jan 15 106 Hofstra W 76 - 71 34% +6  89% 8 - 9 2 - 4 B- +6 A+ +14 A C+ B+ D- -7 D+ B+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 149 College of Charleston W 112 - 106 2OT 48% +3  68% 9 - 9 3 - 4 C+ +3 A+ +16 A+ D+ A F -13 D+ F F
 Thu, Jan 22 292 @Northeastern W 95 - 80 56% +9  94% 10 - 9 4 - 4 B +10 A +13 A+ C- F+ D+ -3 B F F
 Thu, Jan 29 197 @Campbell W 81 - 69 35% +3  75% 11 - 9 5 - 4 B+ +13 B+ +9 A F B B +5 C A- D+
 Sat, Jan 31 227 @Elon W 72 - 68 41% +6  90% 12 - 9 6 - 4 C+ +3 D- -6 D C D- A +10 C A+ C+
 Thu, Feb 5 199 Monmouth L 75 - 76 58% -8  0% 12 - 10 6 - 5 D+ -6 D+ -3 B- C- F D+ -3 C- A F+
 Sat, Feb 7 292 Northeastern W 69 - 55 77% +10  73% 13 - 10 7 - 5 C+ +3 F -11 D+ F D A+ +15 A+ D- C+
 Thu, Feb 12 170 @Towson L 57 - 69 30% -10  0% 13 - 11 7 - 6 D -10 F+ -9 F C+ A C- -2 C+ C- D-
 Mon, Feb 16 221 Drexel W 72 - 69 63% -1  34% 14 - 11 8 - 6 C- -3 C +1 C F+ A+ D+ -4 D D- A+
 Sat, Feb 21 259 Hampton W 79 - 72 70% +5  73% 15 - 11 9 - 6 C -2 C+ +3 A+ D F D+ -4 F+ A- B-
 Thu, Feb 26 199 @Monmouth L 67 - 71 36%
 Sat, Feb 28 106 @Hofstra L 64 - 74 17%
 Tue, Mar 3 170 Towson W 66 - 65 52%
Totals 16 - 13 10 - 8 -3 C- -2 C C C+ C- -1 B- C D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D- B- B- C 35% 28% 49% C+ C C- D- D C- D C D C- C- B+ D C- 37% 20% 43% C C- C- A- B- C- C+ C- C+
1.06 51% 41% 36% 0 0 1.02 28% 0.9 .26 18% .26 72% .19 1.10 59% 33% 37% +1 0 1.04 32% 0.9 .28 16% .29 73% .19
Nov
8		 Maine D- C C- F D- 47% 21% 32% C+ D F F F A+ B+ D- B- B- F A+ A+ B 46% 23% 31% D+ B B+ F+ B- F F B+ D-
1.02 60% 36% 24% -4 +1 0.94 24% 0.7 .17 11% .37 65% .24 0.86 68% 9% 20% -9 0 0.85 14% 1.2 .16 16% .42 60% .25
Nov
15		 Yale A A+ B- A+ A+ 33% 16% 51% C+ A+ D- A+ B- F B+ C- B+ F+ C+ A- F F 40% 23% 38% B- F+ F A+ B- C+ F F F
1.24 73% 43% 43% +13 0 1.29 23% 1.5 .35 19% .33 71% .23 1.35 56% 33% 60% +13 0 1.28 40% 0.9 .36 16% .61 85% .52
Nov
20		 Brown B+ C- F A+ C+ 53% 16% 31% A- B- C+ A+ A- A C+ D C- D- B+ F F F 42% 22% 36% B- F F B D C- B+ A+ A
1.20 56% 25% 44% +1 +2 1.08 32% 1.3 .41 13% .35 70% .24 1.05 48% 55% 44% +5 0 1.12 35% 1.0 .35 19% .20 55% .11
Nov
24		 Pacific F F A+ F F 23% 19% 58% B- F+ D- C- D D- F A+ D+ F F D F F 40% 33% 28% A- F A+ C A+ C+ F F F
0.87 33% 50% 27% -10 -1 0.81 18% 1.0 .18 18% .24 85% .20 1.29 94% 46% 64% +29 -1 1.58 18% 1.0 .18 21% .45 83% .38
Nov
25		 Bethune-Cookman D- D D- D+ D 26% 19% 55% F+ D- B+ F D- F C F D A+ B+ C+ A+ A 42% 35% 23% A- A F A+ A C- F A- F
0.97 50% 33% 31% -6 -1 0.89 38% 0.7 .28 22% .33 63% .20 0.86 50% 33% 20% -10 -2 0.79 45% 0.4 .17 17% .50 62% .31
Nov
28		 Loyola Marymount C F A+ D+ C+ 38% 21% 40% B- B- F+ B D+ B- A A A+ B+ D- A+ A- A- 38% 13% 50% F B F B+ D- A- F F F
1.04 33% 80% 32% -2 0 0.98 24% 1.1 .27 15% .38 82% .31 1.00 67% 17% 29% -3 +1 0.98 39% 0.9 .35 22% .38 80% .30
Dec
6		 Duquesne B- F A+ D D 36% 13% 52% B+ D+ B- D+ C A+ F A- F D- B- F F F 38% 11% 51% C+ F F A+ A+ D+ F C- F
1.09 35% 86% 31% -5 +1 0.95 32% 0.9 .29 12% .23 79% .18 1.22 56% 60% 46% +10 +1 1.26 38% 0.5 .18 16% .45 73% .33
Dec
9		 Columbia F F B+ C+ F 46% 19% 35% C+ F+ C A+ B+ F B- F C A C A+ B A- 43% 11% 46% D+ B+ D- A+ A+ B- D F D-
0.97 35% 45% 35% -9 +1 0.86 30% 1.2 .36 20% .33 67% .22 0.92 57% 17% 32% -4 +2 0.96 40% 0.4 .16 23% .31 79% .25
Dec
13		 Central Michigan B- F+ A+ A+ A+ 42% 23% 35% D+ A+ A+ C A+ F C- B C A C+ C+ A+ A+ 34% 25% 42% C A+ A+ F B+ F C+ F D+
1.22 50% 50% 67% +16 0 1.35 54% 1.2 .63 31% .34 73% .25 0.86 56% 38% 9% -16 -1 0.68 18% 1.3 .23 12% .27 80% .21
Dec
17		 Albany F F D- F F 42% 18% 40% C F F F F A- F F+ F D F A+ F F 43% 9% 48% F F C+ A+ A+ D+ F A+ C+
0.84 42% 30% 26% -13 +1 0.77 17% 0.4 .07 11% .22 69% .15 1.09 75% 25% 41% +11 +2 1.28 30% 0.4 .12 18% .34 44% .15
Dec
21		 Marist F F F F F 22% 31% 47% F+ F F+ F F C- C- F D C- C+ B+ C C+ 35% 23% 42% D+ C C- D+ D+ F C+ C C+
0.77 45% 27% 26% -12 -2 0.73 22% 0.7 .15 20% .34 61% .21 1.06 56% 33% 32% -3 -1 0.94 27% 1.2 .32 12% .24 79% .19
Dec
29		 Hampton F F+ D+ A+ C+ 50% 7% 43% A B D- F F F B- F F B F F A+ C 31% 27% 42% C C A F D D+ C- A+ B
0.92 52% 33% 44% +4 +3 1.14 23% 0.3 .06 25% .41 45% .19 0.96 71% 50% 16% -4 -1 0.91 26% 1.4 .35 17% .36 58% .21
Dec
31		 William & Mary F B+ F F+ F+ 24% 14% 63% D+ F+ B F F D+ F A+ D- D+ D+ F F F 39% 9% 52% C F C- A+ A- B- D D- F+
0.88 67% 14% 28% -7 0 0.88 35% 0.3 .09 20% .17 89% .15 1.17 65% 50% 43% +11 +2 1.27 28% 0.8 .21 18% .38 80% .30
Jan
3		 N.C. A&T B C D- A+ A- 40% 17% 42% C+ A- D B C- B- F+ A+ D+ F A+ B- F C- 40% 33% 27% C+ C- F A+ F D C+ F D-
1.24 57% 33% 50% +9 +1 1.21 22% 1.1 .25 12% .24 79% .19 1.22 43% 35% 50% -1 -1 0.98 56% 0.8 .46 17% .35 89% .31
Jan
8		 Drexel F F F F F 26% 17% 57% C F B- D C B- F D F B A+ A+ C- A+ 36% 12% 52% D A C- F F B+ B F C
0.65 25% 13% 15% -29 0 0.43 34% 0.9 .32 14% .22 73% .16 0.98 33% 20% 36% -9 +1 0.86 30% 1.3 .40 23% .23 80% .18
Jan
10		 UNC Wilmington C F A+ F+ C- 30% 21% 49% B- C D A+ A+ C- F A F D+ B- A+ F F+ 35% 17% 48% D- F+ B F D C+ A+ A+ A+
1.08 44% 73% 27% -2 -1 0.96 22% 2.1 .47 15% .11 83% .09 1.15 53% 13% 48% +4 0 1.10 30% 1.4 .41 15% .27 47% .13
Jan
15		 Hofstra A+ C+ B- A+ A+ 33% 20% 47% C+ A B+ D C+ B+ C- D- D+ D- B- A+ F D+ 27% 21% 52% C- D+ D A+ B+ F A F+ B+
1.28 56% 40% 43% +6 0 1.14 36% 0.9 .33 12% .29 67% .19 1.20 54% 20% 44% +3 -1 1.06 37% 0.8 .29 12% .21 82% .17
Jan
17		 College of Charleston A+ C+ A+ A A+ 35% 12% 53% A- A+ F A+ D+ A A+ D- A+ F B A F C- 46% 19% 35% D- D+ B- F F F F F F
1.30 61% 75% 40% +10 +1 1.24 20% 1.2 .24 9% .40 65% .26 1.23 55% 25% 41% 0 +1 1.03 26% 1.6 .43 12% .47 83% .39
Jan
22		 Northeastern A C+ D+ A+ A+ 33% 10% 57% C+ A+ B F C- F+ C+ B- B- D+ F A+ A+ B 39% 18% 44% C+ B C+ F F F D+ A+ A-
1.33 63% 40% 57% +21 +1 1.47 37% 0.8 .30 21% .36 75% .27 1.12 73% 20% 24% -4 0 0.95 26% 1.8 .46 11% .30 42% .13
Jan
29		 Campbell B+ B B A+ A+ 45% 15% 40% B A B F F B C+ B+ B- B F A+ D D+ 31% 25% 43% A+ C A+ D- A- D+ A F B+
1.22 67% 43% 47% +13 +1 1.30 36% 0.5 .18 15% .32 78% .25 1.04 69% 15% 36% -1 -1 0.98 23% 1.1 .26 17% .29 81% .23
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Elon D- F B B+ D 24% 18% 57% D+ D C+ C- C D- A- B- A- A B- C+ D+ C+ 57% 6% 37% F C C A+ A+ C+ C C- C-
1.04 33% 44% 39% 0 -1 1.00 36% 1.1 .39 19% .36 75% .27 0.99 55% 33% 37% 0 +3 1.08 33% 0.3 .10 17% .32 72% .23
Feb
5		 Monmouth D+ B+ F B+ B- 34% 10% 56% C+ B- C D+ C- F C A+ B+ D+ D A+ D+ C- 35% 23% 42% C- C- C+ A+ A F+ F+ D F
1.05 65% 0% 39% +3 +1 1.10 31% 0.9 .29 24% .29 88% .26 1.06 61% 25% 36% 0 -1 1.00 30% 0.6 .19 14% .37 78% .29
Feb
7		 Northeastern F A+ C F D+ 38% 15% 47% C D+ F A+ F D C+ C+ C+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ 30% 26% 44% A+ A+ C+ F D- C+ D B C-
1.03 78% 43% 27% +4 +1 1.11 14% 1.3 .17 19% .35 74% .26 0.82 47% 23% 18% -18 -1 0.64 26% 1.4 .36 18% .31 65% .20
Feb
12		 Towson F+ C F F F 27% 20% 53% C- F C+ C C+ A D F D- C- A F B- C+ 33% 30% 37% C C+ D+ C+ C- D- C+ D C
0.90 57% 20% 22% -13 -1 0.75 28% 1.0 .28 11% .23 62% .14 1.09 44% 50% 30% -3 -2 0.93 38% 0.8 .31 14% .26 71% .18
Feb
16		 Drexel C F+ B+ C+ C 36% 21% 43% C+ C D+ F F+ A+ C+ A B D+ B+ F+ F D- 36% 24% 40% B D F B D- A+ B+ F C+
1.10 47% 45% 35% -2 0 0.98 27% 0.8 .22 9% .32 84% .27 1.06 50% 45% 44% +5 -1 1.11 42% 0.8 .33 26% .21 80% .17
Feb
21		 Hampton C+ B A+ A+ A+ 39% 10% 51% B A+ D C- D F A+ A- A+ D+ C- B- F F+ 41% 24% 35% D- F+ C A+ A- B- C C- C-
1.15 69% 75% 43% +15 +1 1.34 24% 1.0 .24 23% .51 74% .38 1.04 57% 33% 39% +1 0 1.04 34% 0.6 .21 20% .35 74% .25



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 1.0 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.3 10.7 2.5 13.6 3rd
4th 0.6 31.1 13.3 45.0 4th
5th 5.2 13.8 18.9 5th
6th 12.4 0.6 13.0 6th
7th 8.2 8.2 7th
8th 0.4 0.4 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 26.6 45.8 24.0 3.5 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 3.5% 8.9% 8.9% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 3.2
11-7 24.0% 6.1% 6.1% 14.4 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.0 22.6
10-8 45.8% 3.1% 3.1% 14.8 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.2 44.4
9-9 26.6% 1.8% 1.8% 15.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 26.2
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 14.6 96.3 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 13.5 4.3 41.5 50.0 4.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9%
Lose Out 12.5%