Texas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.2 #268
Expected Predictive Rating -5.3 #250
Pace 66.0 #265
Improvement -1.4 #259

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #282 D- C- D C- D+
Defense #239 F C+ B- D+ F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #34 1.09 #265 +2.4 #106
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #35 0.75 #176 +3.5 #40
Three Pointers 25% #365 0.81 #348 -10.7 #365
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #315 -4.9 #314
Freethrows 16.0 #257 75% #102 12.0 #209
Second Chance 33.7% #97 0.88 #337 0.30 #234
Turnovers 18.8% #304
Total Offense -4.1 #282

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #27 1.21 #255 -5.1 #333
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #316 0.62 #27 +2.8 #15
Three Pointers 39% #234 1.23 #360 -3.3 #308
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #333 -5.6 #333
Freethrows 19.9 #307 69% #64 13.8 #97
Second Chance 30.7% #181 0.98 #110 0.30 #142
Turnovers 18.0% #99
Total Defense -2.2 #239

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.3% #271 2.2% #346
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -8.3% #305 8.6% #324
Possession Length 17.9 #242 17.0 #136
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #129 0.18 #226
Improvement +0.9 #116 -2.4 #317

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 1.1% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.1 15.3
.500 or above 30.4% 52.9% 26.5%
.500 or above in Conference 33.2% 58.5% 28.8%
Conference Champion 0.3% 1.1% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 0.4% 1.5%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.6% 1.0% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas St. (Away) - 14.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 32 - 92 - 11
Quad 412 - 614 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 132 @Bowling Green L 48 - 83 15%  -13  0 - 1 -30 -22 F F F -8 F A+ B-
 Sat, Nov 8 176 @Tulane L 71 - 79 22%  +6  0 - 2 -6 +2 D- B- C+ -9 F A+ B+
 Wed, Nov 12 315 Texas San Antonio W 80 - 69 72%  +10  1 - 2 -1 +3 F A+ A- -5 C D+ D
 Sat, Nov 15 335 Texas Southern W 77 - 67 77%  +12  2 - 2 -4 -2 F A+ F -1 D- A A+
 Tue, Nov 18 202 Abilene Christian W 63 - 49 47%  +11  3 - 2 +9 -4 D F F +14 A+ C- A+
 Fri, Nov 21 299 Arkansas Little Rock W 65 - 56 67%  +5  4 - 2 -2 -7 C F F +6 B+ A- B
 Fri, Nov 28 120 Seattle L 52 - 66 20%  -5  4 - 3 -11 -8 C F D -6 F A+ D
 Sat, Nov 29 320 Lehigh L 74 - 78 OT 63%  +1  4 - 4 -14 -2 D D F -12 F A+ C-
 Wed, Dec 3 245 @Rice L 72 - 77 33%  -2  4 - 5 -7 +0 D+ F C -7 C+ F B
 Wed, Dec 10 256 Southern W 86 - 83 59%  -2  5 - 5 -6 -1 B+ F F -5 F C+ A+
 Wed, Dec 17 126 Arkansas St. L 70 - 89 31%  -8  5 - 6 0 - 1 -20 -6 F C C- -13 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 200 South Alabama W 67 - 65 47%  -6  6 - 6 1 - 1 -3 -3 F B+ D -1 C B+ B
 Wed, Dec 31 137 @Troy L 80 - 100 16%  -8  6 - 7 1 - 2 -16 +12 C+ A+ D+ -29 F F F
 Sat, Jan 3 356 @Louisiana Monroe W 84 - 79 67%  +3  7 - 7 2 - 2 -6 +1 F A+ F -7 F A+ B
 Thu, Jan 8 201 @Southern Miss L 70 - 80 OT 26%  +0  7 - 8 2 - 3 -9 -8 F C D+ -0 D+ B+ B-
 Sat, Jan 10 126 @Arkansas St. L 71 - 82 15% 
 Wed, Jan 14 310 Louisiana W 68 - 62 70% 
 Sat, Jan 17 201 Southern Miss L 71 - 72 47% 
 Thu, Jan 22 270 @Coastal Carolina L 68 - 71 39% 
 Sat, Jan 24 204 @James Madison L 67 - 74 27% 
 Wed, Jan 28 159 Marshall L 72 - 75 39% 
 Sat, Jan 31 250 Old Dominion W 73 - 71 57% 
 Wed, Feb 4 213 @Georgia Southern L 73 - 79 28% 
 Sat, Feb 7 265 Western Michigan W 75 - 72 61% 
 Wed, Feb 11 137 Troy L 68 - 73 33% 
 Sat, Feb 14 356 Louisiana Monroe W 81 - 70 83% 
 Thu, Feb 19 200 @South Alabama L 63 - 70 26% 
 Sat, Feb 21 310 @Louisiana L 64 - 65 49% 
 Fri, Feb 27 224 Appalachian St. W 65 - 64 51% 
Totals 13 - 16 8 - 10 -6 -4 D- C- D -2 F C+ B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 1.9 0.5 0.1 3.3 4th
5th 0.4 3.0 1.6 0.1 5.1 5th
6th 0.1 3.0 4.0 0.6 0.0 7.6 6th
7th 0.0 2.1 6.2 2.0 0.1 10.4 7th
8th 0.0 1.3 6.5 4.8 0.2 12.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 5.5 7.1 1.1 0.0 14.3 9th
10th 0.3 3.6 8.0 2.5 0.1 14.4 10th
11th 0.1 2.0 6.6 3.9 0.3 13.0 11th
12th 0.0 1.2 4.4 3.6 0.5 9.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.7 2.4 2.3 0.6 0.0 6.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 14th
Total 0.1 0.9 3.8 9.1 15.0 19.2 18.7 15.5 10.0 5.0 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 61.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 21.2% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
12-6 4.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.6% 11.5% 11.5% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
12-6 1.9% 5.2% 5.2% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8
11-7 5.0% 3.0% 3.0% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.9
10-8 10.0% 1.1% 1.1% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.9
9-9 15.5% 0.6% 0.6% 15.6 0.0 0.1 15.4
8-10 18.7% 0.2% 0.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 18.6
7-11 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 19.2
6-12 15.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.0
5-13 9.1% 9.1
4-14 3.8% 3.8
3-15 0.9% 0.9
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 15.3 99.4 0.0%