Texas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.1#126
Expected Predictive Rating+3.4#115
Pace64.1#301
Improvement+1.6#91

Offense
Total Offense+1.9#124
First Shot+1.9#120
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#186
Layup/Dunks+4.7#32
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#98
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.7#350
Freethrows+2.6#45
Improvement+3.1#19

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#158
First Shot-0.6#192
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#100
Layups/Dunks-0.1#172
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#28
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#244
Freethrows-1.3#274
Improvement-1.5#291
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.9% 17.1% 13.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 13.0 13.4
.500 or above 93.3% 96.2% 86.8%
.500 or above in Conference 92.5% 93.8% 89.6%
Conference Champion 22.2% 24.3% 17.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round15.9% 17.1% 13.3%
Second Round1.9% 2.1% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas Arlington (Home) - 69.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 36 - 47 - 9
Quad 412 - 219 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 305   Eastern Michigan W 64-44 88%     1 - 0 +9.1 -9.1 +20.0
  Nov 12, 2024 66   @ TCU L 71-76 20%     1 - 1 +6.0 +4.3 +1.9
  Nov 16, 2024 212   @ Abilene Christian L 60-72 57%     1 - 2 -11.6 -10.4 -1.3
  Nov 21, 2024 78   Bradley L 68-82 31%     1 - 3 -6.6 -0.9 -6.2
  Nov 22, 2024 110   Princeton W 83-80 45%     2 - 3 +6.5 +15.3 -8.7
  Nov 24, 2024 147   Ohio W 74-65 57%     3 - 3 +9.3 +8.3 +2.1
  Dec 01, 2024 299   @ Texas Southern W 72-59 74%     4 - 3 +8.5 +4.5 +5.0
  Dec 08, 2024 186   Rice W 75-66 73%     5 - 3 +4.7 +13.2 -7.1
  Dec 14, 2024 88   @ Florida Atlantic L 80-89 25%     5 - 4 +0.3 +9.3 -9.0
  Dec 21, 2024 242   Georgia Southern W 83-61 82%     6 - 4 1 - 0 +14.5 +8.4 +6.3
  Dec 29, 2024 164   Texas Arlington W 78-73 69%    
  Jan 02, 2025 199   @ Marshall W 73-72 54%    
  Jan 04, 2025 175   @ Appalachian St. L 65-66 50%    
  Jan 09, 2025 119   @ Troy L 67-71 36%    
  Jan 11, 2025 282   @ Southern Miss W 73-67 71%    
  Jan 15, 2025 272   Georgia St. W 77-66 84%    
  Jan 18, 2025 282   Southern Miss W 76-64 86%    
  Jan 22, 2025 286   @ Louisiana W 74-68 71%    
  Jan 25, 2025 105   @ Arkansas St. L 70-75 32%    
  Jan 30, 2025 286   Louisiana W 77-65 86%    
  Feb 01, 2025 105   Arkansas St. W 73-72 52%    
  Feb 05, 2025 308   @ Old Dominion W 75-68 75%    
  Feb 13, 2025 334   @ Louisiana Monroe W 74-64 81%    
  Feb 15, 2025 156   @ South Alabama L 66-67 47%    
  Feb 19, 2025 334   Louisiana Monroe W 77-61 92%    
  Feb 22, 2025 156   South Alabama W 69-64 67%    
  Feb 25, 2025 119   Troy W 70-68 58%    
  Feb 28, 2025 135   James Madison W 72-68 63%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.3 6.1 7.2 4.5 1.6 0.4 22.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 3.1 7.4 6.0 1.7 0.1 18.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.5 7.0 5.0 0.9 0.0 15.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 5.6 4.7 0.8 0.0 12.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.9 4.5 1.0 0.0 9.9 5th
6th 0.2 2.2 4.0 1.3 0.1 7.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 2.9 1.3 0.1 5.2 7th
8th 0.3 1.6 1.3 0.2 0.0 3.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 2.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 4.1 7.1 11.0 14.2 16.2 15.6 12.9 8.9 4.6 1.6 0.4 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 100.0% 1.6    1.6 0.0
16-2 97.2% 4.5    4.0 0.5 0.0
15-3 80.1% 7.2    4.8 2.1 0.2 0.0
14-4 46.7% 6.1    2.3 2.7 0.9 0.1 0.0
13-5 14.8% 2.3    0.3 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 22.2% 22.2 13.4 6.3 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 43.3% 43.3% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
17-1 1.6% 38.5% 38.5% 11.9 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0
16-2 4.6% 35.4% 35.4% 12.3 0.1 1.0 0.5 0.0 3.0
15-3 8.9% 28.7% 28.7% 12.7 0.0 1.0 1.2 0.3 0.0 6.4
14-4 12.9% 24.7% 24.7% 13.0 0.0 0.7 1.8 0.6 0.0 9.8
13-5 15.6% 19.6% 19.6% 13.3 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.1 0.1 12.6
12-6 16.2% 14.2% 14.2% 13.6 0.1 0.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 13.9
11-7 14.2% 9.1% 9.1% 13.9 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 12.9
10-8 11.0% 6.1% 6.1% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 10.3
9-9 7.1% 4.2% 4.2% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.8
8-10 4.1% 2.7% 2.7% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.0
7-11 2.0% 2.1% 2.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 2.0
6-12 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.9
5-13 0.3% 0.3
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 15.9% 15.9% 0.0% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.8 6.5 4.3 1.0 0.1 84.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 10.8 1.5 1.5 3.0 1.5 19.7 42.4 30.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%