Texas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -4.1 237
Results Rating -2.7 213
Pace 66.0 251
Improvement +5.6 18

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 255 D+ C- D C- D
Defense C 196 D B- B- D+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 33 C- 56% 243 +2.4 93
2 Pt. Jumpers 64% 7 C+ 40% 106 +4.7 18
Three Pointers 24% 365 D- 29% 335 -10.3 365
Shot Selection/Accuracy D -1.0 305 D+ -2.2 259
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.96 283
Second Chance C+ 32.4% 122 D- 0.91 330 C- 0.29 216
Turnovers D 18.9% 306
Freethrows D+ 0.28 258 B 76% 44 C- 0.21 200
Total Offense D+ -3.3 255

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 51% 127 D- 14.6% 340
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 28% 136 C+ 4.5% 140
Three Pointers B 89% 61 C+ 0.8% 162
Total D+ 51% 283 F 8.1% 355

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 80 C- 60% 234 +3.3 289
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 289 B- 36% 101 -1.7 56
Three Pointers 40% 201 F+ 39% 353 +2.6 304
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.7 309 D +3.3 304
1st FG Attempt D 1.10 314
Second Chance C+ 29.0% 124 B- 0.97 84 B- 0.28 86
Turnovers B- 18.1% 98
Freethrows D+ 0.33 268 C 73% 199 D+ 0.24 270
Total Defense C -0.8 196

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B 42% 52 C+ 11.8% 135
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 17% 42 B 7.3% 57
Three Pointers B- 81% 89 D+ 0.4% 292
Total B- 51% 94 C+ 6.5% 112

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.6 208 17.3 195
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 112 0.17 170
Improvement +4.5 #11 +1.2 #119

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 252 233 208
Results Rating Rank 236 210 180
Conference Record 10 - 8 10 - 8 11 - 7
Conference Finish 7 5 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4% 6% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.0 15.6
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 1% 3% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round4% 6% 2%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Appalachian St. (Home) - 48.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 33 - 93 - 9
Quad 414 - 417 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 166 @Bowling Green L 48 - 83 26% -13  0% 0 - 1 F -32 F -24 F F F D- -8 F A- C
 Sat, Nov 8 162 @Tulane L 71 - 79 26% +6  77% 0 - 2 D+ -5 C +1 D+ B+ B- D- -7 F+ A+ B-
 Wed, Nov 12 334 Texas San Antonio W 80 - 69 83% +10  97% 1 - 2 C- -3 D+ -2 F A- B+ C -1 B- C- D+
 Sat, Nov 15 305 Texas Southern W 77 - 67 76% +12  97% 2 - 2 C -2 D -5 D+ A+ F B- +3 C- B A
 Tue, Nov 18 245 Abilene Christian W 63 - 49 63% +11  96% 3 - 2 B- +7 D -6 D D- F A+ +14 A+ D- A
 Fri, Nov 21 299 Arkansas Little Rock W 65 - 56 75% +5  88% 4 - 2 C- -2 F -10 C+ F F A +9 B+ A- A
 Fri, Nov 28 122 Seattle L 52 - 66 26% -5  9% 4 - 3 D -11 D- -7 C F D D -6 F A D-
 Sat, Nov 29 307 Lehigh L 74 - 78 OT 67% +1  50% 4 - 4 D- -13 D -5 D C F+ D- -8 F A+ C
 Wed, Dec 3 232 @Rice L 72 - 77 38% -2  23% 4 - 5 D+ -6 D+ -4 D+ F C C- -2 B F B-
 Wed, Dec 10 258 Southern W 86 - 83 67% -2  27% 5 - 5 D+ -6 D+ -3 A- F F C- -3 F C A+
 Wed, Dec 17 143 Arkansas St. L 70 - 89 42% -8  4% 5 - 6 0 - 1 F -21 F+ -10 F C- C F -11 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 182 South Alabama W 67 - 65 51% -6  4% 6 - 6 1 - 1 C- -2 D -5 F A- C- B- +3 B- B A-
 Wed, Dec 31 152 @Troy L 80 - 100 24% -8  12% 6 - 7 1 - 2 F+ -17 B+ +9 C+ A+ D F -26 F F F
 Sat, Jan 3 353 @Louisiana Monroe W 84 - 79 74% +3  80% 7 - 7 2 - 2 D+ -6 C- -2 F+ A D D+ -4 F A+ B-
 Thu, Jan 8 241 @Southern Miss L 70 - 80 OT 40% +0  50% 7 - 8 2 - 3 D- -11 F -10 F C- C- C -0 D B C+
 Sat, Jan 10 143 @Arkansas St. L 82 - 83 22% -5  0% 7 - 9 2 - 4 C+ +3 C- -0 C- A+ F B- +3 B A- B
 Wed, Jan 14 291 Louisiana W 59 - 54 73% +5  83% 8 - 9 3 - 4 D+ -6 F -11 B F D- B+ +6 B B- C-
 Sat, Jan 17 241 Southern Miss W 74 - 67 62% +3  70% 9 - 9 4 - 4 C -0 D -4 C- D- F B +4 C+ A+ C+
 Thu, Jan 22 236 @Coastal Carolina L 70 - 72 38% -3  30% 9 - 10 4 - 5 C- -3 C- -1 F D+ A+ C- -2 C B D
 Sat, Jan 24 201 @James Madison L 57 - 82 32% -17  2% 9 - 11 4 - 6 F -24 F -13 F F B- F -14 F D- C
 Wed, Jan 28 176 Marshall W 72 - 68 50% +4  72% 10 - 11 5 - 6 C -0 D- -7 D+ B D A- +7 B- A+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 242 Old Dominion W 81 - 64 63% +12  99% 11 - 11 6 - 6 B +10 C+ +3 C+ D- A- B+ +6 A- C A-
 Wed, Feb 4 266 @Georgia Southern W 77 - 71 46% +3  52% 12 - 11 7 - 6 C+ +3 C- -1 F A+ C- B +4 D A C-
 Sat, Feb 7 288 Western Michigan W 77 - 61 73% +5  78% 13 - 11 B- +5 C +2 B D- D- B+ +5 C+ C B+
 Wed, Feb 11 152 Troy W 74 - 62 45% +9  98% 14 - 11 8 - 6 B +9 B- +4 A D+ F B+ +6 B+ B A+
 Sat, Feb 14 353 Louisiana Monroe W 95 - 84 88% +6  93% 15 - 11 9 - 6 D+ -6 A+ +19 A A+ A F -23 F F C
 Thu, Feb 19 182 @South Alabama W 90 - 82 OT 29% +3  68% 16 - 11 10 - 6 B +10 A +12 A D- B D+ -3 F A+ C+
 Sat, Feb 21 291 @Louisiana L 54 - 67 52% -11  0% 16 - 12 10 - 7 F+ -18 F -13 F C+ F D- -7 F F A
 Fri, Feb 27 173 Appalachian St. L 65 - 66 48%
Totals 16 - 13 10 - 8 -4 D+ -3 D+ D+ D C -1 D- B C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ C- C+ D- D+ 44% 64% 24% D D+ C+ D- C- D D+ B C- C C- B- F+ D 43% 17% 40% D D C+ B- B- B- D+ C D+
1.04 56% 40% 29% -2 -1 0.96 32% 0.9 .29 19% .28 76% .21 1.10 60% 36% 39% +3 +1 1.10 29% 1.0 .28 18% .33 73% .20
Nov
3		 Bowling Green F D- C+ F F 47% 20% 33% C+ F F C- F F F F F D- F A- F F 47% 14% 39% C- F B- A+ A- C B B B
0.68 50% 40% 18% -12 +1 0.80 14% 1.0 .14 26% .13 43% .06 1.18 71% 29% 50% +14 +2 1.33 25% 0.6 .14 17% .27 69% .19
Nov
8		 Tulane C F D A+ D+ 46% 25% 29% C D+ C- A+ B+ B- F A+ D+ D- C- A+ F F+ 41% 14% 45% D- F+ B A+ A+ B- F F F
1.06 45% 33% 43% -3 0 0.96 32% 1.3 .41 16% .23 85% .20 1.18 61% 0% 45% +4 +1 1.11 19% 0.0 .00 16% .54 100% .54
Nov
12		 Texas San Antonio D+ C+ D- F F 43% 25% 32% D+ F A- B- A- B+ A+ B+ A+ C B B- A+ B+ 48% 12% 40% F B- B+ F C- D+ F C- F
1.14 61% 31% 12% -11 0 0.79 44% 1.2 .51 13% .42 77% .33 0.98 48% 33% 24% -12 +2 0.83 26% 1.1 .28 16% .37 73% .27
Nov
15		 Texas Southern D C+ D+ D D+ 43% 22% 35% D+ D+ C- A+ A+ F A+ B A+ B- C F+ A C- 47% 29% 24% C- C- D A+ B A F A F
1.08 63% 38% 31% 0 0 1.03 32% 1.9 .60 24% .59 75% .44 0.94 57% 46% 27% -1 0 1.00 29% 0.7 .21 23% .53 62% .33
Nov
18		 Abilene Christian D F F+ A+ D 56% 26% 18% C- D A+ F D- F B+ C B A+ A+ F A+ A+ 57% 14% 29% F A+ F C D- A F+ A+ B-
1.00 45% 30% 71% +1 +1 1.05 41% 0.5 .21 30% .50 73% .36 0.77 21% 50% 25% -23 +2 0.60 40% 0.9 .35 25% .40 53% .21
Nov
21		 Arkansas Little Rock F A C C+ B- 51% 24% 24% C- C+ B- F F F B F C- A A+ A- C+ A+ 56% 18% 27% F B+ C- A+ A- A F C F
1.01 74% 36% 36% +9 0 1.20 39% 0.2 .07 26% .34 56% .19 0.87 44% 25% 33% -10 +2 0.84 32% 0.7 .21 23% .36 67% .24
Nov
28		 Seattle D- B- C+ F C+ 40% 42% 19% F C B+ F F D F B F D F A+ C+ F 55% 11% 34% F F A A+ A D- D A+ C+
0.85 58% 40% 22% -3 -3 0.92 37% 0.2 .06 23% .17 75% .13 1.08 79% 0% 33% +7 +2 1.20 18% 0.6 .11 15% .33 59% .19
Nov
29		 Lehigh D D- B C- C 33% 54% 13% F D A F C F+ A B+ A+ D- B- D- F F 40% 17% 43% F+ F C- A+ A+ C B+ A+ A
1.05 50% 46% 33% +2 -5 0.96 44% 0.8 .33 20% .41 78% .32 1.11 52% 44% 57% +13 +1 1.30 23% 0.3 .06 18% .21 58% .12
Dec
3		 Rice D+ B C- C+ C- 35% 44% 21% F+ D+ B F F C C C C C- F B- A+ B 23% 27% 50% C B D+ F F B- F F F
1.06 67% 35% 36% +2 -3 1.00 38% 0.5 .18 16% .33 74% .25 1.13 80% 33% 23% -5 -2 0.89 39% 1.3 .50 19% .53 76% .40
Dec
10		 Southern D+ B- B A+ A- 53% 15% 32% A- A- C- F F F A+ C- A+ C- D- C F F 26% 31% 43% B+ F C C C A+ C C+ C+
1.08 64% 43% 47% +10 +2 1.26 31% 0.4 .14 24% .51 74% .38 1.05 64% 35% 43% +7 -2 1.11 30% 1.0 .30 24% .31 68% .22
Dec
17		 Arkansas St. F+ F C F F 53% 28% 19% C+ F D+ B- C- C D A+ C+ F D- A+ F F 46% 13% 41% D F F+ F F A+ D C D
0.97 47% 38% 27% -8 0 0.86 24% 1.1 .27 15% .29 83% .24 1.23 67% 0% 53% +11 +2 1.26 44% 1.8 .80 26% .37 75% .28
Dec
20		 South Alabama D D- B F F 38% 16% 47% C+ F A+ D A- C- A+ A+ A+ B- C+ F A+ B 56% 13% 31% F B- B C B A- F C+ F+
1.02 53% 43% 19% -12 +1 0.80 46% 1.0 .46 18% .41 91% .37 0.99 56% 50% 20% -6 +2 0.94 19% 1.2 .23 17% .40 64% .26
Dec
31		 Troy B+ D+ C A C+ 40% 27% 33% D+ C+ A A- A+ D D+ F+ D F F A+ F F 65% 7% 28% F F F F F F F A+ F
1.18 52% 43% 41% +3 -1 1.06 41% 1.2 .50 19% .25 64% .16 1.47 67% 0% 69% +18 +4 1.46 45% 1.3 .59 12% .53 63% .33
Jan
3		 Louisiana Monroe C- D+ C+ F F+ 49% 31% 20% D- F+ B+ B A D D- D D- D+ F A+ F F 37% 19% 44% C- F A+ A+ A+ B- B B- B
1.15 59% 44% 25% -1 -1 1.00 43% 1.3 .54 18% .20 67% .13 1.08 68% 20% 52% +12 0 1.27 14% 0.5 .07 19% .27 69% .19
Jan
8		 Southern Miss F F+ B- F F 38% 21% 41% C- F C- C C- C- C D- D+ C F B+ C+ D- 41% 36% 23% C+ D B+ C B C+ D+ C D+
0.91 48% 42% 26% -8 0 0.86 27% 1.0 .27 18% .35 64% .22 1.04 70% 30% 31% +1 -2 1.00 26% 1.0 .26 19% .39 75% .29
Jan
10		 Arkansas St. C- A+ D- F C 44% 35% 20% D C- D+ A+ A+ F D+ A+ B- B- D- A+ A+ B+ 43% 13% 44% D+ B F A+ A- B F D F
1.06 75% 32% 18% 0 -1 1.00 25% 1.9 .47 21% .31 84% .26 1.07 65% 14% 25% -6 +1 0.93 44% 0.6 .28 22% .53 78% .41
Jan
14		 Louisiana F C+ A+ A+ B+ 60% 23% 16% C+ B D F F D- F F F B+ A A+ F A- 37% 23% 40% F B A+ F B- C- F C+ F
0.97 62% 50% 43% +7 +1 1.19 27% 0.3 .08 21% .21 60% .13 0.89 44% 10% 41% -8 0 0.86 16% 1.2 .19 16% .37 68% .26
Jan
17		 Southern Miss D F+ A A C- 49% 21% 31% C+ C- D+ F+ D- F A+ A+ A+ B B F A+ C+ 38% 34% 28% C+ C+ A+ C A+ C+ D- F F
1.03 47% 50% 42% +1 +1 1.05 24% 0.8 .20 25% .65 80% .52 0.94 53% 47% 21% -4 -2 0.90 16% 1.0 .16 20% .42 83% .35
Jan
22		 Coastal Carolina C- F A F F 34% 45% 21% F+ F C+ F D+ A+ B- A+ A+ C- F F+ A+ C 24% 27% 49% C C B+ B- B D F D F
1.02 42% 48% 8% -9 -3 0.77 29% 0.8 .24 6% .33 90% .30 1.05 67% 46% 25% -2 -2 0.94 21% 0.9 .18 13% .49 76% .37
Jan
24		 James Madison F C F F F 45% 28% 28% D+ F D+ F F B- B- C C+ F D+ F F F 26% 12% 62% C+ F F B- D- C A D+ A-
0.90 57% 15% 23% -11 0 0.79 28% 0.6 .18 11% .37 71% .27 1.30 62% 50% 45% +13 0 1.28 37% 1.0 .37 17% .21 73% .15
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 Marshall D- F+ F A+ D 48% 24% 28% B- D+ D+ A+ B D C- D D+ A- D- C+ A+ B 40% 25% 35% D B- A+ B A+ F A- A+ A
1.05 50% 25% 43% -3 0 0.96 31% 1.3 .39 19% .34 68% .23 0.99 70% 36% 25% -1 0 1.00 17% 1.0 .17 10% .19 58% .11
Jan
31		 Old Dominion C+ C C A+ B 39% 33% 27% F+ C+ C+ F D- A- B+ A- A B+ C- A+ A+ A+ 41% 14% 45% F A- F A+ C A- F F F
1.17 60% 35% 43% +3 -2 1.06 32% 0.7 .24 12% .41 80% .33 0.93 60% 14% 23% -10 +1 0.84 33% 0.8 .27 20% .40 82% .33
Feb
4		 Georgia Southern C- F+ D- F F 57% 18% 24% B- F B- A+ A+ C- B- A+ A B C+ F B- D- 39% 14% 47% C+ D A+ D- A C- D C D+
1.11 50% 33% 25% -9 +2 0.88 39% 1.4 .55 19% .39 91% .35 1.02 53% 71% 30% 0 +1 1.04 16% 1.2 .19 14% .37 73% .27
Feb
7		 Western Michigan C B+ A A A 36% 32% 32% F B D+ D- D- D- F A+ F+ B+ A+ F+ D+ C+ 40% 22% 38% C- C+ C- C C B+ A+ F A+
1.21 68% 47% 41% +10 -2 1.19 27% 1.0 .27 16% .19 90% .17 0.96 40% 45% 37% -4 0 0.94 31% 1.0 .31 20% .12 83% .10
Feb
11		 Troy B- A A+ F A+ 37% 44% 19% F A D+ D+ D+ F A+ A+ A+ B+ B A B- B 26% 18% 56% A+ B+ D+ A+ B A+ F D F
1.16 69% 63% 25% +13 -3 1.21 29% 1.0 .29 22% .38 84% .32 0.97 50% 29% 32% -6 -1 0.90 35% 0.7 .26 24% .53 77% .41
Feb
14		 Louisiana Monroe A+ C A+ A+ A 55% 25% 21% C- A A+ A+ A+ A F+ B- D F B- F F F 48% 13% 39% F F F D F C D A C
1.48 62% 77% 45% +15 +1 1.34 57% 1.5 .87 11% .19 73% .14 1.31 50% 67% 56% +13 +2 1.30 38% 1.1 .41 17% .36 63% .23
Feb
19		 South Alabama A A- A A+ A+ 20% 34% 46% F A C F D- B A+ C- A+ D+ F D F F 48% 13% 39% D- F A+ A+ A+ C+ C+ D+ C
1.24 70% 47% 43% +12 -3 1.20 31% 0.8 .26 15% .53 73% .39 1.13 69% 43% 43% +11 +2 1.28 7% 0.0 .00 14% .30 68% .21
Feb
21		 Louisiana F F+ F+ F F 30% 43% 28% F F A F+ C+ F B- B+ B D- A- C F F 28% 41% 31% B F D- F F A F D F
0.90 50% 29% 18% -13 -3 0.70 41% 0.9 .35 25% .40 78% .31 1.12 45% 38% 67% +11 -3 1.18 31% 1.1 .35 22% .41 74% .30



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1.3 1.3 1st
2nd 10.3 10.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 22.0 22.1 3rd
4th 1.4 14.6 16.0 4th
5th 15.5 15.5 5th
6th 29.2 29.2 6th
7th 5.6 5.6 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 51.7 48.3 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 2.8% 1.3    0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 1.3% 1.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 48.3% 5.9% 5.9% 15.0 0.0 0.4 1.9 0.5 45.4
10-8 51.7% 2.0% 2.0% 15.6 0.0 0.4 0.6 50.7
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 15.2 96.1 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.8% 100.0% 15.0 0.2 14.2 67.1 18.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 13.3%
Lose Out 26.9%