Texas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.3#184
Expected Predictive Rating-1.6#197
Pace66.2#233
Improvement-3.5#322

Offense
Total Offense+1.6#130
First Shot+2.1#111
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#222
Layup/Dunks+4.9#30
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#91
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.5#348
Freethrows+2.4#55
Improvement+0.3#171

Defense
Total Defense-2.9#260
First Shot-3.2#279
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#152
Layups/Dunks-2.1#266
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#79
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#180
Freethrows-2.8#343
Improvement-3.7#342
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.7% 4.4% 2.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.4 14.9
.500 or above 53.5% 67.7% 34.6%
.500 or above in Conference 64.2% 79.3% 44.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round3.6% 4.4% 2.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Old Dominion (Away) - 57.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 34 - 65 - 11
Quad 410 - 515 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 300   Eastern Michigan W 64-44 80%     1 - 0 +9.8 -9.1 +20.8
  Nov 12, 2024 68   @ TCU L 71-76 14%     1 - 1 +5.4 +3.0 +2.5
  Nov 16, 2024 242   @ Abilene Christian L 60-72 54%     1 - 2 -14.3 -9.6 -4.9
  Nov 21, 2024 94   Bradley L 68-82 25%     1 - 3 -8.2 +0.4 -9.0
  Nov 22, 2024 129   Princeton W 83-80 38%     2 - 3 +4.9 +15.6 -10.6
  Nov 24, 2024 168   Ohio W 74-65 45%     3 - 3 +9.0 +9.5 +0.5
  Dec 01, 2024 274   @ Texas Southern W 72-59 60%     4 - 3 +9.2 +5.6 +4.6
  Dec 08, 2024 192   Rice W 75-66 60%     5 - 3 +5.0 +11.5 -5.1
  Dec 14, 2024 106   @ Florida Atlantic L 80-89 22%     5 - 4 -2.3 +7.8 -10.1
  Dec 21, 2024 254   Georgia Southern W 83-61 74%     6 - 4 1 - 0 +14.2 +7.8 +6.6
  Dec 29, 2024 200   Texas Arlington L 72-80 62%     6 - 5 -12.3 -2.2 -10.4
  Jan 02, 2025 182   @ Marshall L 71-77 40%     6 - 6 1 - 1 -4.6 +3.2 -8.2
  Jan 04, 2025 145   @ Appalachian St. L 61-72 32%     6 - 7 1 - 2 -7.4 -0.7 -7.8
  Jan 09, 2025 111   @ Troy W 74-73 25%     7 - 7 2 - 2 +6.8 +9.0 -2.1
  Jan 11, 2025 248   @ Southern Miss L 88-92 OT 55%     7 - 8 2 - 3 -6.7 +0.9 -6.9
  Jan 15, 2025 278   Georgia St. W 94-80 77%     8 - 8 3 - 3 +5.0 +14.2 -9.3
  Jan 18, 2025 248   Southern Miss W 85-82 OT 73%     9 - 8 4 - 3 -4.6 +1.1 -6.1
  Jan 23, 2025 301   @ Louisiana W 89-74 65%     10 - 8 5 - 3 +9.7 +14.4 -4.8
  Jan 25, 2025 93   @ Arkansas St. L 65-80 18%     10 - 9 5 - 4 -6.6 -2.6 -4.1
  Jan 30, 2025 301   Louisiana L 61-70 80%     10 - 10 5 - 5 -19.3 -10.8 -9.2
  Feb 01, 2025 93   Arkansas St. L 74-85 32%     10 - 11 5 - 6 -7.6 +5.2 -13.0
  Feb 05, 2025 275   @ Old Dominion W 73-70 57%    
  Feb 08, 2025 225   @ Central Michigan L 70-71 46%    
  Feb 13, 2025 328   @ Louisiana Monroe W 75-68 72%    
  Feb 15, 2025 156   @ South Alabama L 65-69 33%    
  Feb 19, 2025 328   Louisiana Monroe W 78-66 88%    
  Feb 22, 2025 156   South Alabama W 68-67 54%    
  Feb 25, 2025 111   Troy L 70-72 44%    
  Feb 28, 2025 137   James Madison L 72-73 51%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.2 0.8 0.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.8 1.1 2.9 3rd
4th 1.1 4.5 0.4 6.1 4th
5th 0.3 5.5 3.8 0.0 9.7 5th
6th 0.1 4.5 10.6 0.9 16.1 6th
7th 0.0 3.8 15.9 4.6 0.0 24.4 7th
8th 0.0 1.3 10.3 6.9 0.2 18.7 8th
9th 0.2 4.3 6.7 0.8 0.0 11.9 9th
10th 0.0 1.0 3.9 1.1 6.0 10th
11th 0.0 1.2 1.2 0.1 2.5 11th
12th 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.4 2.8 10.6 22.0 28.4 22.2 11.2 2.3 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 2.3% 8.2% 8.2% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.1
11-7 11.2% 7.1% 7.1% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 10.4
10-8 22.2% 5.1% 5.1% 14.4 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 21.1
9-9 28.4% 3.4% 3.4% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 27.5
8-10 22.0% 1.8% 1.8% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 21.6
7-11 10.6% 1.4% 1.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 10.5
6-12 2.8% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.1 2.8
5-13 0.4% 0.4
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.5 0.5 96.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%