Virginia Commonwealth
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.9#38
Expected Predictive Rating+8.6#64
Pace66.9#219
Improvement+2.5#74

Offense
Total Offense+4.7#66
First Shot-1.1#216
After Offensive Rebound+5.8#4
Layup/Dunks-2.0#260
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#191
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#130
Freethrows-0.1#178
Improvement+3.5#26

Defense
Total Defense+7.3#29
First Shot+7.7#13
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#222
Layups/Dunks+3.3#64
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#317
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.9#4
Freethrows-0.7#238
Improvement-1.0#244
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 2.8% 2.9% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 46.8% 47.4% 38.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 8.8% 9.2% 4.0%
Average Seed 10.3 10.2 11.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 65.8% 67.1% 44.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.6% 3.7% 2.2%
First Round45.2% 45.8% 37.3%
Second Round18.3% 18.7% 12.0%
Sweet Sixteen6.0% 6.1% 3.8%
Elite Eight1.8% 1.9% 1.0%
Final Four0.5% 0.5% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: La Salle (Home) - 93.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 25 - 46 - 5
Quad 38 - 214 - 7
Quad 411 - 025 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 356   Bellarmine W 84-65 99%     1 - 0 +3.0 +3.9 +0.1
  Nov 08, 2024 176   Boston College W 80-55 88%     2 - 0 +24.2 +3.3 +20.3
  Nov 13, 2024 198   Merrimack W 63-42 93%     3 - 0 +16.8 -9.1 +25.6
  Nov 16, 2024 325   Loyola Maryland W 83-57 98%     4 - 0 +13.5 +2.1 +10.9
  Nov 21, 2024 147   Seton Hall L 66-69 OT 85%     4 - 1 -2.0 -9.2 +7.4
  Nov 22, 2024 88   Nevada L 61-64 70%     4 - 2 +3.5 +0.9 +2.1
  Nov 24, 2024 169   Miami (FL) W 77-70 87%     5 - 2 +6.9 +6.8 +0.8
  Dec 04, 2024 254   Georgia Southern W 89-54 96%     6 - 2 +27.2 +15.4 +12.7
  Dec 09, 2024 273   Penn W 66-47 96%     7 - 2 +10.2 -7.3 +19.3
  Dec 14, 2024 77   Colorado St. W 76-68 67%     8 - 2 +15.4 +12.2 +3.7
  Dec 18, 2024 40   @ New Mexico L 71-78 41%     8 - 3 +7.4 +3.7 +3.9
  Dec 22, 2024 208   William & Mary W 90-70 93%     9 - 3 +15.1 +7.7 +6.5
  Dec 31, 2024 95   @ St. Bonaventure L 75-77 66%     9 - 4 0 - 1 +5.8 +15.2 -9.7
  Jan 04, 2025 128   @ Loyola Chicago W 84-65 77%     10 - 4 1 - 1 +23.4 +21.0 +3.8
  Jan 08, 2025 191   Fordham W 73-61 92%     11 - 4 2 - 1 +8.1 +2.6 +6.2
  Jan 14, 2025 105   Saint Louis W 78-62 83%     12 - 4 3 - 1 +17.9 +13.8 +5.6
  Jan 17, 2025 86   @ Saint Joseph's W 78-69 61%     13 - 4 4 - 1 +18.2 +9.6 +8.4
  Jan 21, 2025 121   @ Rhode Island W 81-57 75%     14 - 4 5 - 1 +28.8 +3.5 +23.0
  Jan 24, 2025 95   St. Bonaventure W 75-61 81%     15 - 4 6 - 1 +16.8 +7.0 +10.5
  Jan 28, 2025 105   @ Saint Louis L 69-78 69%     15 - 5 6 - 2 -2.2 -3.4 +1.7
  Feb 01, 2025 220   Richmond W 90-49 94%     16 - 5 7 - 2 +35.3 +32.1 +10.7
  Feb 04, 2025 193   La Salle W 80-64 94%    
  Feb 07, 2025 80   @ Dayton W 71-69 56%    
  Feb 12, 2025 124   @ George Washington W 74-67 74%    
  Feb 19, 2025 152   Massachusetts W 80-66 91%    
  Feb 22, 2025 81   George Mason W 67-60 76%    
  Feb 25, 2025 220   @ Richmond W 73-60 87%    
  Feb 28, 2025 126   Davidson W 77-65 88%    
  Mar 04, 2025 142   @ Duquesne W 70-62 77%    
  Mar 07, 2025 80   Dayton W 73-66 76%    
Projected Record 23 - 7 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.4 5.3 17.8 26.8 15.5 65.8 1st
2nd 0.2 3.6 10.8 9.9 2.8 27.2 2nd
3rd 1.0 2.7 1.1 4.8 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 0.6 0.0 1.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.4 7.3 17.2 27.6 29.6 15.5 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 15.5    14.6 0.9
15-3 90.5% 26.8    20.9 5.8 0.0
14-4 64.4% 17.8    9.2 7.9 0.7 0.0
13-5 30.8% 5.3    1.2 2.6 1.2 0.2 0.0
12-6 5.5% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 65.8% 65.8 45.9 17.4 2.1 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 15.5% 65.6% 51.7% 14.0% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.4 1.8 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.4 0.0 5.3 28.9%
15-3 29.6% 52.7% 45.7% 7.0% 10.6 0.2 0.9 4.1 9.8 0.6 14.0 12.9%
14-4 27.6% 43.1% 40.5% 2.6% 11.0 0.1 1.4 9.2 1.3 15.7 4.3%
13-5 17.2% 35.9% 34.8% 1.0% 11.2 0.1 4.4 1.6 0.0 11.0 1.6%
12-6 7.3% 32.1% 32.0% 0.1% 11.5 1.3 1.0 0.0 5.0 0.2%
11-7 2.4% 24.0% 24.0% 11.5 0.3 0.3 1.8
10-8 0.3% 19.4% 19.4% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.3
9-9 0.1% 0.1
8-10 0.0% 0.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 46.8% 41.7% 5.1% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.4 1.8 1.6 2.4 6.9 26.4 4.8 0.0 53.2 8.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 8.0% 100.0% 7.3 0.1 0.1 1.4 4.8 10.2 17.9 21.9 16.4 15.5 7.8 3.8 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.3% 36.6% 10.1 0.4 1.3 6.2 14.5 14.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.0% 30.2% 10.3 0.7 0.7 2.3 11.1 15.4