Virginia Commonwealth
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.4#57
Expected Predictive Rating+6.7#87
Pace66.8#237
Improvement-1.0#250

Offense
Total Offense+2.4#111
First Shot-2.9#259
After Offensive Rebound+5.3#3
Layup/Dunks-3.3#300
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#181
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#166
Freethrows+0.2#164
Improvement+0.1#168

Defense
Total Defense+6.9#26
First Shot+7.7#10
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#246
Layups/Dunks+4.0#49
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#341
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.6#2
Freethrows-1.1#264
Improvement-1.1#274
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 0.8% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 1.1% 1.9% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.4% 29.3% 19.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4.1% 6.5% 2.0%
Average Seed 10.4 10.1 10.9
.500 or above 99.6% 99.9% 99.3%
.500 or above in Conference 95.3% 98.3% 92.2%
Conference Champion 24.9% 34.5% 15.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four1.6% 2.3% 1.0%
First Round23.6% 28.2% 19.0%
Second Round9.1% 11.5% 6.7%
Sweet Sixteen2.7% 3.3% 2.0%
Elite Eight0.8% 1.1% 0.5%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Bonaventure (Away) - 50.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 2
Quad 24 - 45 - 6
Quad 39 - 314 - 9
Quad 49 - 023 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 345   Bellarmine W 84-65 98%     1 - 0 +4.2 +5.2 +0.0
  Nov 08, 2024 167   Boston College W 80-55 82%     2 - 0 +24.6 +4.7 +19.3
  Nov 13, 2024 195   Merrimack W 63-42 90%     3 - 0 +16.3 -10.7 +26.7
  Nov 16, 2024 322   Loyola Maryland W 83-57 97%     4 - 0 +13.9 +3.1 +10.3
  Nov 21, 2024 115   Seton Hall L 66-69 OT 73%     4 - 1 -0.1 -5.4 +5.5
  Nov 22, 2024 60   Nevada L 61-64 50%     4 - 2 +6.3 +1.9 +3.9
  Nov 24, 2024 104   Miami (FL) W 77-70 68%     5 - 2 +11.6 +10.2 +2.1
  Dec 04, 2024 242   Georgia Southern W 89-54 93%     6 - 2 +27.5 +16.0 +12.5
  Dec 09, 2024 292   Penn W 66-47 95%     7 - 2 +9.0 -7.3 +18.0
  Dec 14, 2024 97   Colorado St. W 76-68 66%     8 - 2 +13.0 +11.5 +2.0
  Dec 18, 2024 64   @ New Mexico L 71-78 43%     8 - 3 +4.3 -0.1 +4.7
  Dec 22, 2024 221   William & Mary W 90-70 92%     9 - 3 +13.7 +5.8 +6.9
  Dec 31, 2024 87   @ St. Bonaventure L 65-66 50%    
  Jan 04, 2025 121   @ Loyola Chicago W 70-66 64%    
  Jan 08, 2025 178   Fordham W 77-64 89%    
  Jan 14, 2025 137   Saint Louis W 79-68 85%    
  Jan 17, 2025 86   @ Saint Joseph's L 69-70 49%    
  Jan 21, 2025 93   @ Rhode Island W 73-72 53%    
  Jan 24, 2025 87   St. Bonaventure W 68-62 71%    
  Jan 28, 2025 137   @ Saint Louis W 76-71 68%    
  Feb 01, 2025 216   Richmond W 76-61 92%    
  Feb 04, 2025 165   La Salle W 77-64 88%    
  Feb 07, 2025 48   @ Dayton L 66-70 34%    
  Feb 12, 2025 136   @ George Washington W 74-69 68%    
  Feb 19, 2025 203   Massachusetts W 78-64 90%    
  Feb 22, 2025 82   George Mason W 67-62 69%    
  Feb 25, 2025 216   @ Richmond W 73-64 80%    
  Feb 28, 2025 122   Davidson W 74-64 81%    
  Mar 04, 2025 163   @ Duquesne W 68-61 72%    
  Mar 07, 2025 48   Dayton W 69-67 56%    
Projected Record 22 - 8 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.8 5.8 8.1 6.0 2.6 0.6 24.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.8 6.8 7.4 3.2 0.5 0.0 19.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 5.7 6.5 2.2 0.2 0.0 16.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 4.0 5.4 2.2 0.2 12.4 4th
5th 0.2 2.3 4.6 2.0 0.2 0.0 9.3 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 3.3 2.0 0.2 0.0 6.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.9 1.8 0.3 0.0 4.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 1.5 0.3 0.0 2.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 1.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.8 5.0 8.4 12.3 15.4 17.4 15.5 11.4 6.6 2.6 0.6 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
17-1 99.1% 2.6    2.5 0.1
16-2 91.6% 6.0    5.0 1.0 0.0
15-3 70.5% 8.1    4.8 2.9 0.4 0.0
14-4 37.1% 5.8    1.9 2.5 1.1 0.2 0.0
13-5 10.1% 1.8    0.2 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.0
12-6 1.2% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 24.9% 24.9 14.9 7.1 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 91.1% 50.4% 40.8% 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 82.1%
17-1 2.6% 73.7% 45.0% 28.7% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.7 52.1%
16-2 6.6% 53.7% 38.2% 15.5% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.1 0.9 0.0 3.0 25.1%
15-3 11.4% 39.4% 32.5% 6.8% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.5 0.2 6.9 10.1%
14-4 15.5% 29.3% 27.0% 2.3% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 3.3 0.6 11.0 3.1%
13-5 17.4% 23.4% 22.8% 0.7% 11.2 0.0 0.2 3.0 0.9 0.0 13.3 0.8%
12-6 15.4% 17.5% 17.3% 0.1% 11.4 0.0 0.0 1.7 1.0 0.0 12.7 0.2%
11-7 12.3% 12.6% 12.5% 0.0% 11.5 0.0 0.8 0.8 0.0 10.8 0.0%
10-8 8.4% 8.1% 8.1% 11.7 0.2 0.4 0.0 7.8
9-9 5.0% 5.8% 5.8% 11.7 0.1 0.2 0.0 4.7
8-10 2.8% 4.4% 4.4% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.7
7-11 1.2% 1.6% 1.6% 12.2 0.0 0.0 1.2
6-12 0.5% 1.7% 1.7% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.5
5-13 0.2% 1.1% 1.1% 14.0 0.0 0.2
4-14 0.1% 3.3% 3.3% 15.0 0.0 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 24.4% 21.2% 3.3% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.6 3.5 12.6 4.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 75.6 4.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 3.4 8.5 14.8 22.5 40.8 9.2 2.8 1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 86.0% 6.1 4.0 12.0 20.0 14.0 14.0 16.0 6.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 83.0% 7.3 1.9 9.4 13.2 26.4 13.2 9.4 7.5 1.9