Virginia Commonwealth
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +11.3 46
Results Rating +11.7 49
Pace 72.5 73
Improvement -2.3 274

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B+ 49 B B B- A B
Defense B 64 B B- C C+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 110 C+ 59% 136 +2.1 101
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 335 B+ 44% 44 -2.4 294
Three Pointers 46% 68 B- 36% 90 +4.4 46
Shot Selection/Accuracy B +1.2 36 B- +2.7 90
1st FG Attempt B 1.10 68
Second Chance B 34.5% 69 B- 1.11 68 B 0.38 51
Turnovers B- 15.3% 87
Freethrows A 0.38 7 B- 74% 125 A 0.28 8
Total Offense B+ +7.1 49

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 48% 197 C+ 9.7% 114
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 18% 288 C 5.5% 218
Three Pointers C+ 86% 142 C+ 0.7% 122
Total C+ 58% 126 B- 5.0% 110

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 34 B+ 52% 41 +0.6 203
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 116 C 38% 168 +0.5 234
Three Pointers 33% 354 B- 32% 109 -4.6 21
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.2 210 B -3.6 50
1st FG Attempt B 0.95 63
Second Chance C+ 29.3% 137 B- 0.97 89 B- 0.28 98
Turnovers C 17.2% 159
Freethrows C+ 0.29 158 C+ 71% 122 C+ 0.21 139
Total Defense B +4.3 64

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 45% 115 B- 13.8% 74
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 27% 208 C- 4.0% 227
Three Pointers A 73% 10 A+ 3.3% 3
Total B 49% 45 B+ 8.1% 30

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 15.8 39 17.8 260
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 77 0.14 76
Improvement -0.3 #206 -2.0 #288

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 55 47 40
Results Rating Rank 58 50 30
Conference Record 13 - 5 14 - 4 15 - 3
Conference Finish 2 2 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 10
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 2nd Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 47% 48% 38%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 32% 33% 22%
Average Seed 10.7 10.7 11.0
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 4% 4% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four20% 21% 16%
First Round37% 38% 29%
Second Round12% 12% 9%
Sweet Sixteen2% 2% 2%
Elite Eight1% 1% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Fordham (Home) - 91.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 5
Quad 26 - 36 - 8
Quad 39 - 015 - 8
Quad 410 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 320 Wagner W 103 - 74 98% +12  95% 1 - 0 A- +16 A +13 B- A+ C+ C+ +1 B- B C
 Fri, Nov 7 28 Utah St. L 77 - 80 36% -8  9% 1 - 1 B+ +12 C +1 A- C- F+ A +11 A+ F A+
 Wed, Nov 12 235 St. Peter's W 78 - 61 95% +10  89% 2 - 1 B +10 C+ +3 A+ F F A- +8 A+ C+ B
 Mon, Nov 17 24 @North Carolina St. L 79 - 85 24% -4  0% 2 - 2 B+ +13 B +7 B- B A B+ +6 A D- A+
 Sat, Nov 22 363 Coppin St. W 101 - 58 99% +23  97% 3 - 2 A +22 A +12 A- F A+ A- +7 C A- C
 Wed, Nov 26 58 South Florida W 78 - 66 57% +3  61% 4 - 2 A +21 B- +4 D+ C+ A- A+ +17 A+ A+ D-
 Thu, Nov 27 16 Vanderbilt L 74 - 89 24% -10  1% 4 - 3 C+ +4 C+ +2 D B+ B B- +3 F A A+
 Fri, Nov 28 57 Virginia Tech W 86 - 68 56% +10  92% 5 - 3 A+ +28 A+ +15 A+ F D+ A+ +13 A- B+ A-
 Fri, Dec 5 190 Samford W 83 - 57 93% +7  53% 6 - 3 A +21 C+ +3 B B+ F+ A+ +18 A+ A C+
 Wed, Dec 10 47 New Mexico L 78 - 81 62% +1  53% 6 - 4 B- +5 B +7 D+ A B C- -2 F+ A+ A
 Mon, Dec 15 336 Niagara W 84 - 58 98% +8  91% 7 - 4 B +11 A +11 A+ C- C- B- +3 B+ C+ D-
 Thu, Dec 18 253 American W 105 - 83 95% +12  94% 8 - 4 B+ +14 A+ +26 A- A+ A F -12 D+ C F+
 Mon, Dec 22 356 Rider W 100 - 79 99% +11  83% 9 - 4 C+ +3 A +13 A- A+ B- F -10 D+ F D+
 Wed, Dec 31 142 St. Bonaventure W 89 - 82 89% +0  40% 10 - 4 1 - 0 B- +5 A +13 B B+ A+ D- -8 C- C- D
 Sat, Jan 3 110 @Duquesne W 93 - 80 68% +7  92% 11 - 4 2 - 0 A +19 A+ +19 A- A+ C+ C +0 F A+ C+
 Wed, Jan 7 23 Saint Louis L 62 - 71 42% -6  1% 11 - 5 2 - 1 C+ +4 F -12 F+ F C A+ +17 A+ A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 10 105 @George Mason L 80 - 86 65% -1  44% 11 - 6 2 - 2 C +1 A +12 B+ A- A F -11 D+ D- F
 Wed, Jan 14 124 @Rhode Island W 84 - 75 71% +8  97% 12 - 6 3 - 2 A- +15 A+ +17 B+ A- A+ C- -2 F A+ C
 Mon, Jan 19 133 Saint Joseph's W 79 - 72 87% +0  45% 13 - 6 4 - 2 B- +6 B- +4 C+ B B- B- +2 F A A+
 Sat, Jan 24 113 @Davidson W 75 - 69 69% +0  46% 14 - 6 5 - 2 B+ +12 A +13 A- A+ D+ C -0 C B+ F
 Tue, Jan 27 130 Richmond W 77 - 69 87% +8  99% 15 - 6 6 - 2 B- +7 A +11 B+ C A D+ -3 A- F C
 Fri, Jan 30 282 Loyola Chicago W 89 - 75 96% +0  50% 16 - 6 7 - 2 C+ +4 A- +11 B- B B+ D- -7 C F C
 Tue, Feb 3 155 @Fordham W 63 - 59 78% +8  98% 17 - 6 8 - 2 B- +7 C- -1 C+ A F A +9 A+ C+ F+
 Fri, Feb 6 87 Dayton W 99 - 73 77% +17  94% 18 - 6 9 - 2 A+ +30 A +12 C A+ A+ A+ +14 A+ C+ B
 Wed, Feb 11 200 @La Salle W 77 - 68 84% +5  84% 19 - 6 10 - 2 B +10 B+ +9 B+ B D C+ +1 A+ D- F
 Sat, Feb 14 130 @Richmond W 78 - 67 73% +10  99% 20 - 6 11 - 2 A- +16 B- +4 B D C+ A+ +12 A+ B+ D-
 Tue, Feb 17 82 George Washington W 89 - 75 76% +4  71% 21 - 6 12 - 2 A +18 A+ +15 B+ B A+ B- +3 A- B D+
 Fri, Feb 20 23 @Saint Louis L 75 - 88 22% +4  73% 21 - 7 12 - 3 B- +6 C+ +2 F+ A+ F B+ +6 C C+ A-
 Sat, Feb 28 155 Fordham W 77 - 63 91%
 Tue, Mar 3 105 George Mason W 79 - 69 83%
 Fri, Mar 6 87 @Dayton W 77 - 75 56%
Totals 23 - 8 14 - 4 +11 B+ +7 C- B- B B +4 B- B- A



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B+ C+ B+ B- B- 41% 23% 46% B B B B- B B- A B- A B B+ C B- B 44% 22% 33% C- B C+ B- B- C C+ C+ C+
1.19 59% 44% 36% +3 +1 1.10 34% 1.1 .38 15% .38 74% .28 1.03 52% 38% 32% -4 0 0.95 29% 1.0 .28 17% .29 71% .27
Nov
3		 Wagner A B- F C C 47% 2% 51% A B- A A+ A+ C+ A D- B+ C+ A+ C+ F B 48% 21% 31% D- B- C- A B C F C F
1.35 62% 0% 36% +2 +3 1.13 41% 1.5 .62 13% .47 68% .32 0.97 36% 36% 44% -6 +1 0.90 33% 0.9 .29 20% .39 71% .28
Nov
7		 Utah St. C C- B+ B+ A- 31% 14% 55% B- A- B+ F C- F+ A+ F A- A A+ A+ F A+ 64% 13% 23% D- A+ D+ F F A+ F B- F
1.01 53% 43% 37% +2 0 1.06 38% 0.7 .27 25% .49 57% .28 1.05 47% 17% 45% -6 +3 0.96 39% 1.4 .56 24% .45 69% .31
Nov
12		 St. Peter's C+ B- B- A+ A+ 44% 12% 44% B A+ B- F F F A+ C A+ A- A+ F A+ A+ 33% 22% 44% C A+ D- A- C+ B D+ F F
1.14 61% 40% 44% +8 +1 1.22 39% 0.3 .12 25% .68 74% .51 0.89 27% 50% 20% -17 -1 0.67 40% 0.8 .33 20% .35 89% .31
Nov
17		 North Carolina St. B B F C B- 23% 7% 70% C B- C+ A B A C- C- C- B+ A+ F C- A- 36% 22% 42% A- A F A D- A+ F D- F
1.07 62% 25% 33% -1 +1 1.02 28% 1.2 .33 16% .29 67% .19 1.15 44% 50% 37% -1 0 1.00 42% 1.1 .45 23% .58 82% .48
Nov
22		 Coppin St. A A A+ C+ B+ 54% 6% 41% A A- D F F A+ A+ B- A+ A- B C- B C 40% 27% 33% C- C B- A+ A- C A+ A A+
1.36 72% 67% 36% +11 +3 1.30 31% 0.9 .28 11% .48 78% .38 0.78 48% 36% 29% -7 -1 0.87 25% 0.7 .18 23% .17 60% .10
Nov
26		 South Florida B- D- A D- D+ 37% 25% 38% C D+ A- D- C+ A- A+ B- A+ A+ B A+ A+ A+ 64% 11% 25% D A+ A+ A+ A+ D- A- A+ A+
1.08 47% 46% 30% -4 -1 0.92 38% 0.8 .31 15% .52 72% .37 0.91 50% 0% 14% -17 +3 0.75 30% 0.9 .27 12% .32 60% .19
Nov
27		 Vanderbilt C+ F A+ F F+ 35% 10% 55% A D D A+ B+ B A+ B- A+ B- B- F F F 43% 18% 39% C- F C A+ A A+ F B+ F
0.98 44% 60% 21% -13 +1 0.78 21% 1.6 .33 17% .56 77% .43 1.18 58% 50% 53% +13 +1 1.30 33% 0.8 .27 23% .57 73% .41
Nov
28		 Virginia Tech A+ A- C- A+ A+ 41% 22% 37% B- A+ B- F F D+ A+ D+ A+ A+ B+ B+ C- A 45% 27% 29% C+ A- A+ D- B+ A- F A+ C+
1.22 67% 36% 58% +17 0 1.35 33% 0.5 .17 20% .39 68% .26 0.96 55% 31% 36% -3 0 0.96 24% 1.3 .29 18% .40 57% .23
Dec
5		 Samford C+ F+ B- A+ B- 40% 13% 46% A B A+ F+ B+ F+ A F C A+ D A+ A+ A+ 38% 25% 37% C+ A+ B A+ A C+ B C B
1.18 48% 43% 46% +5 +1 1.13 40% 0.9 .38 17% .38 59% .22 0.81 65% 23% 11% -14 -1 0.73 20% 0.7 .14 14% .32 68% .22
Dec
10		 New Mexico B F A+ D D- 39% 12% 49% A D+ A+ D+ A B A+ A+ A+ C- B- F F F+ 57% 9% 35% F+ F+ C A+ A+ A F F F
1.12 37% 67% 29% -8 +1 0.88 41% 0.9 .39 17% .48 82% .40 1.16 54% 75% 50% +9 +3 1.26 31% 0.4 .14 20% .39 86% .34
Dec
15		 Niagara A F+ C A+ A+ 27% 11% 62% C+ A+ B- F+ C- C- A+ F B B- A B+ C A- 54% 19% 28% D+ B+ F A+ C+ D- A F B
1.34 50% 40% 54% +16 0 1.36 37% 0.9 .33 16% .40 67% .26 0.92 45% 30% 33% -9 +1 0.87 38% 0.4 .17 16% .15 88% .13
Dec
18		 American A+ A+ B- B A- 43% 13% 44% B A- A+ A+ A+ A F A+ C+ F B+ A+ F D+ 37% 11% 52% C- D+ D B- C F+ F F F
1.49 74% 43% 38% +10 +1 1.24 50% 1.5 .77 14% .30 94% .28 1.18 50% 17% 43% +2 +1 1.07 28% 0.8 .23 13% .36 86% .31
Dec
22		 Rider A A C- A A- 54% 9% 38% B A- C A+ A+ B- A- A A F C- D- A+ D 42% 40% 19% B- D+ D- F F D+ F D F
1.39 70% 40% 43% +12 +3 1.30 34% 1.5 .52 12% .35 77% .27 1.09 55% 43% 20% -4 -2 0.91 36% 1.4 .49 15% .41 72% .29
Dec
31		 St. Bonaventure A A+ D F B- 48% 13% 40% A- B F A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ D- C- A- F D+ 49% 34% 17% C+ C- C- C- C- D C+ F D
1.31 78% 33% 26% +5 +2 1.15 20% 2.0 .40 10% .46 93% .43 1.21 62% 33% 56% +6 -1 1.11 37% 1.0 .37 15% .26 93% .24
Jan
3		 Duquesne A+ A D C+ B+ 42% 13% 44% A- A- B+ A+ A+ C+ A+ B+ A+ C F F B- F 50% 4% 46% F F A+ A A+ C+ F+ A D+
1.30 68% 33% 35% +4 +1 1.13 34% 1.8 .62 17% .52 77% .40 1.12 79% 50% 32% +10 +3 1.27 21% 0.8 .17 18% .43 64% .27
Jan
7		 Saint Louis F F F F+ F 50% 11% 39% A+ F+ D F F C B+ A+ A A+ A- C A+ A+ 59% 8% 32% D+ A+ A+ A A+ C- B+ B B+
0.81 39% 0% 27% -17 +2 0.71 20% 0.3 .07 16% .37 83% .31 0.92 51% 40% 26% -7 +3 0.93 15% 0.8 .13 16% .25 69% .17
Jan
10		 George Mason A A+ A D+ A- 31% 23% 46% C B+ B A- A- A A+ B A+ F F F A+ D 41% 31% 29% B+ D+ A F D- F D+ F F
1.20 73% 45% 32% +5 -1 1.10 32% 1.1 .35 12% .43 76% .32 1.29 75% 53% 21% +6 -1 1.12 23% 1.7 .38 11% .40 88% .35
Jan
14		 Rhode Island A+ B- F B B 42% 4% 54% A- B+ D A+ A- A+ A F+ B C- D+ F C- F 39% 14% 47% C- F A- A+ A+ C F A+ C-
1.25 60% 0% 38% +3 +2 1.13 26% 1.6 .42 7% .45 64% .29 1.11 63% 71% 35% +7 +1 1.18 27% 0.5 .13 19% .44 63% .28
Jan
19		 Saint Joseph's B- D- F B C- 40% 9% 51% A+ C+ D+ A+ B B- A+ C A B- B+ F F F 55% 9% 36% F F A B+ A A+ F+ A+ C-
1.09 48% 20% 37% -4 +2 0.98 28% 1.4 .38 14% .32 70% .22 0.99 50% 50% 47% +4 +3 1.15 25% 0.9 .22 25% .35 63% .22
Jan
24		 Davidson A A A+ F A+ 34% 37% 29% D- A- A+ A+ A+ D+ A B A+ C C- F+ D D 20% 37% 43% A+ C C+ A- B+ F B- A+ A-
1.22 71% 60% 25% +9 -2 1.15 44% 1.3 .56 19% .40 70% .28 1.12 60% 50% 38% +7 -3 1.10 29% 0.9 .26 11% .26 50% .13
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
27		 Richmond A F A+ A+ B 37% 10% 54% A B+ A- F C A A+ A+ A+ D+ A D- B+ B+ 30% 43% 28% A+ A- F F F C B+ B+ A-
1.27 47% 50% 41% +3 +1 1.10 39% 0.9 .35 12% .50 81% .41 1.14 50% 45% 31% -1 -3 0.94 38% 1.4 .53 15% .27 71% .19
Jan
30		 Loyola Chicago A- A- F C+ C+ 38% 13% 48% B B- B- B B B+ A+ B+ A+ D- B A+ D- C+ 48% 12% 40% D C F F F C C+ C- C+
1.31 65% 29% 36% +3 +1 1.10 32% 1.2 .38 10% .47 83% .39 1.10 52% 17% 38% -3 +2 1.00 38% 1.2 .44 19% .29 69% .20
Feb
3		 Fordham C- B D+ B- B- 33% 31% 36% D+ C+ A- A- A F A+ F+ A+ A A- A+ A+ A+ 47% 21% 32% D A+ B C- C+ F+ C- F D
0.98 62% 33% 36% +1 -2 1.00 35% 1.2 .42 23% .57 61% .35 0.92 48% 27% 18% -15 +1 0.74 31% 1.0 .31 14% .25 79% .20
Feb
6		 Dayton A D- A+ F D+ 51% 12% 37% A+ C C- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B D+ A+ 56% 13% 31% D- A+ C C+ C+ B D A+ B+
1.20 48% 71% 29% -4 +2 0.98 28% 1.6 .46 15% .54 82% .44 0.88 35% 29% 35% -13 +2 0.80 28% 1.2 .33 19% .45 60% .27
Feb
11		 La Salle B+ C+ C A B+ 47% 17% 36% B B+ A+ F+ B D A+ F B C+ A- A- A+ A+ 43% 25% 31% C A+ B+ F D- F C- D- D+
1.17 59% 38% 41% +4 +1 1.13 42% 0.9 .39 20% .36 58% .21 1.03 45% 31% 19% -14 0 0.73 29% 1.4 .39 9% .35 76% .27
Feb
14		 Richmond B- F+ A+ C+ B+ 15% 23% 62% D+ B D+ F+ D C+ A- A+ A+ A+ B A+ A+ A+ 38% 21% 42% F+ A+ A+ D- B+ D- F F F
1.12 50% 58% 34% +4 -2 1.06 28% 1.0 .28 16% .36 81% .29 0.96 55% 18% 23% -12 0 0.77 16% 1.2 .19 11% .44 89% .39
Feb
17		 George Washington A+ C+ A+ B+ B+ 38% 17% 45% C+ B+ D+ A+ B A+ A+ B A+ B- B- A+ C A- 34% 6% 60% B- A- B- B B D+ C+ A+ B
1.30 61% 50% 38% +6 0 1.15 25% 1.4 .36 12% .58 74% .43 1.10 56% 0% 34% -3 +2 1.00 34% 1.0 .34 16% .30 65% .19
Feb
20		 Saint Louis C+ F F D F 43% 4% 53% A+ F+ A+ A A+ F A+ C+ A+ B+ C- F D C+ 58% 7% 35% D C D+ B+ C+ A- C A+ A-
0.97 30% 0% 29% -18 +3 0.72 38% 1.1 .40 21% .52 75% .39 1.13 64% 50% 40% +7 +3 1.23 35% 0.9 .32 21% .31 53% .16



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 3.5 3.8 1st
2nd 0.7 11.4 44.5 39.5 96.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.8 11.4 44.7 43.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 8.1% 3.5    0.2 3.3
14-4 0.6% 0.3    0.3
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 3.8% 3.8 0.2 3.6



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 43.0% 56.2% 24.2% 31.9% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.2 6.0 14.7 0.6 18.8 42.2%
14-4 44.7% 42.9% 21.8% 21.0% 10.9 0.0 0.3 2.5 15.2 1.2 0.0 25.6 26.9%
13-5 11.4% 32.9% 18.8% 14.1% 11.0 0.0 0.3 3.1 0.4 7.7 17.4%
12-6 0.8% 20.2% 15.0% 5.1% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7 6.0%
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 47.3% 22.5% 24.8% 10.7 52.7 32.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 10.4% 100.0% 10.1 0.1 0.8 4.9 18.7 34.9 39.7 1.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 15.4% 48.2% 10.8 0.0 1.1 9.4 36.1 1.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 8.1% 37.8% 10.9 0.1 0.3 6.0 29.9 1.5
Lose Out 0.3% 2.2% 12.0 2.2