Virginia Commonwealth
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +10.8 #49
Expected Predictive Rating +8.8 #73
Pace 72.8 #84
Improvement -1.5 #262

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #58 B+ B- B B+ B+
Defense #62 B- B+ C+ D+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #114 1.22 #109 +2.8 #95
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #335 0.77 #146 -3.0 #322
Three Pointers 47% #69 1.11 #62 +5.2 #34
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #56 +5.0 #55
Freethrows 19.5 #78 77% #53 15.0 #51
Second Chance 35.0% #68 1.05 #181 0.37 #90
Turnovers 15.1% #87
Total Offense +5.9 #58

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #25 1.04 #50 -1.3 #232
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #109 0.73 #151 -0.6 #229
Three Pointers 32% #357 1.03 #202 +4.4 #34
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #102 +2.5 #101
Freethrows 18.5 #241 75% #298 13.9 #91
Second Chance 30.1% #152 0.87 #22 0.26 #51
Turnovers 17.9% #102
Total Defense +4.9 #62

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.6% #37 0.6% #213
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 7.0% #78 -5.4% #86
Possession Length 15.9 #64 17.7 #256
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #73 0.15 #106
Improvement +0.2 #169 -1.6 #283

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.6% 1.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.4% 33.3% 22.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 9.5% 13.3% 4.9%
Average Seed 10.5 10.3 10.9
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
.500 or above in Conference 98.5% 99.5% 97.3%
Conference Champion 15.4% 21.6% 7.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four5.2% 6.6% 3.4%
First Round26.0% 30.3% 20.5%
Second Round9.7% 11.8% 6.9%
Sweet Sixteen2.2% 2.6% 1.7%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.6% 0.4%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: George Mason (Away) - 56.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 5
Quad 25 - 36 - 8
Quad 37 - 113 - 10
Quad 410 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 316 Wagner W 103 - 74 97%  +12  1 - 0 +17 +16 B+ A+ C+ -1 B A- B-
 Fri, Nov 7 35 Utah St. L 77 - 80 39%  -8  1 - 1 +11 +4 A D+ F +7 A+ F A+
 Wed, Nov 12 259 St. Peter's W 78 - 61 95%  +10  2 - 1 +8 +6 A+ F F +3 A+ C+ B+
 Mon, Nov 17 34 @North Carolina St. L 79 - 85 28%  -4  2 - 2 +11 +9 C A- A+ +2 A+ D A+
 Sat, Nov 22 364 Coppin St. W 101 - 58 99%  +23  3 - 2 +20 +13 B F A+ +4 C- A C
 Wed, Nov 26 89 South Florida W 78 - 66 66%  +3  4 - 2 +19 +5 C- C+ A+ +13 A+ A+ F
 Thu, Nov 27 7 Vanderbilt L 74 - 89 18%  -10  4 - 3 +5 +5 D A- B +1 D- A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 68 Virginia Tech W 86 - 68 58%  +10  5 - 3 +27 +17 A+ F D+ +10 A- B+ A
 Fri, Dec 5 229 Samford W 83 - 57 94%  +7  6 - 3 +19 +5 B+ B- F +14 A+ A+ B-
 Wed, Dec 10 56 New Mexico L 78 - 81 66%  +1  6 - 4 +4 +10 C- A- B+ -6 F A+ A+
 Mon, Dec 15 354 Niagara W 84 - 58 99%  +8  7 - 4 +10 +13 A+ D C -0 B- C- D+
 Thu, Dec 18 241 American W 105 - 83 95%  +12  8 - 4 +15 +28 A+ A+ A -14 C- C F
 Mon, Dec 22 348 Rider W 100 - 79 98%  +11  9 - 4 +6 +19 A+ A+ C -14 D- F F
 Wed, Dec 31 119 St. Bonaventure W 89 - 82 85%  +0  10 - 4 1 - 0 +7 +17 A+ C+ A+ -10 D+ B- C-
 Sat, Jan 3 129 @Duquesne W 93 - 80 72%  +7  11 - 4 2 - 0 +18 +19 B A+ C -2 F A+ C
 Wed, Jan 7 29 Saint Louis L 62 - 71 48%  -6  11 - 5 2 - 1 +2 -11 F F C+ +14 A+ A+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 92 @George Mason W 74 - 72 56% 
 Wed, Jan 14 141 @Rhode Island W 77 - 70 74% 
 Mon, Jan 19 185 Saint Joseph's W 83 - 67 93% 
 Sat, Jan 24 125 @Davidson W 75 - 69 71% 
 Tue, Jan 27 115 Richmond W 84 - 74 83% 
 Fri, Jan 30 251 Loyola Chicago W 85 - 66 96% 
 Tue, Feb 3 203 @Fordham W 76 - 66 83% 
 Fri, Feb 6 75 Dayton W 77 - 71 72% 
 Wed, Feb 11 217 @La Salle W 79 - 68 84% 
 Sat, Feb 14 115 @Richmond W 81 - 77 64% 
 Tue, Feb 17 70 George Washington W 85 - 79 69% 
 Fri, Feb 20 29 @Saint Louis L 78 - 85 27% 
 Sat, Feb 28 203 Fordham W 79 - 63 93% 
 Tue, Mar 3 92 George Mason W 77 - 69 76% 
 Fri, Mar 6 75 @Dayton W 75 - 74 50% 
Totals 22 - 9 13 - 5 +11 +6 B+ B- B +5 B- B+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 3.1 6.0 4.6 1.2 15.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.8 8.8 13.3 7.2 1.3 32.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 7.0 9.0 3.2 0.1 20.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 4.9 6.8 2.1 0.1 14.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.5 4.4 1.5 0.1 8.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 2.5 1.1 0.1 4.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.6 0.1 2.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.7 6.4 11.8 17.1 20.5 19.7 13.3 5.9 1.2 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 1.2    1.0 0.1
16-2 78.1% 4.6    3.2 1.4 0.0
15-3 44.8% 6.0    2.5 2.8 0.6 0.0
14-4 15.7% 3.1    0.7 1.5 0.8 0.2
13-5 2.6% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.4% 15.4 7.5 6.0 1.6 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 1.2% 82.8% 47.6% 35.2% 6.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 67.2%
16-2 5.9% 66.6% 36.0% 30.5% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.0 0.0 2.0 47.8%
15-3 13.3% 47.8% 30.9% 16.8% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.9 3.3 0.1 6.9 24.4%
14-4 19.7% 33.9% 24.9% 9.1% 10.7 0.0 0.3 1.3 4.9 0.2 13.0 12.1%
13-5 20.5% 24.5% 20.2% 4.4% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 4.1 0.4 15.5 5.5%
12-6 17.1% 18.1% 16.2% 1.9% 11.1 0.0 0.1 2.5 0.5 0.0 14.0 2.3%
11-7 11.8% 12.5% 11.8% 0.6% 11.2 0.0 1.1 0.3 10.3 0.7%
10-8 6.4% 9.2% 9.2% 11.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 5.8
9-9 2.7% 6.1% 6.1% 11.5 0.1 0.1 2.6
8-10 1.0% 7.0% 7.0% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.9
7-11 0.4% 1.4% 1.4% 12.0 0.0 0.4
6-12 0.1% 0.0 0.1
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 28.4% 20.8% 7.5% 10.5 71.7 9.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 5.4 4.5 20.7 29.7 24.3 14.4 4.5 1.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 66.0% 8.9 4.0 6.0 16.0 18.0 12.0 10.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 65.2% 8.7 10.9 4.3 6.5 19.6 17.4 6.5