Wichita St.
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +5.5 97
Results Rating +4.6 99
Pace 66.3 243
Improvement -1.7 253

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 136 C- B B C C
Defense B 65 B B C B A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 109 D+ 55% 268 +0.1 169
2 Pt. Jumpers 39% 161 C 38% 164 +0.7 136
Three Pointers 36% 276 C- 33% 230 -2.9 281
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 193 C- -1.9 248
1st FG Attempt C- 0.98 238
Second Chance A- 38.9% 10 C- 1.00 227 B 0.39 46
Turnovers B 15.0% 69
Freethrows C+ 0.32 134 D- 68% 326 C 0.22 191
Total Offense C+ +1.3 136

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 44% 262 B 8.6% 52
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 17% 306 D+ 6.5% 275
Three Pointers F 70% 361 B 0.5% 73
Total D- 46% 340 C+ 5.2% 126

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 260 B- 55% 94 -2.5 93
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% 10 C- 39% 228 +3.9 360
Three Pointers 34% 346 B 31% 63 -5.0 11
Shot Selection/Accuracy A- -1.4 22 B- -2.2 95
1st FG Attempt B 0.95 60
Second Chance B- 28.0% 86 B 0.95 63 B 0.27 61
Turnovers C 16.8% 181
Freethrows B- 0.28 98 B+ 69% 25 B 0.19 67
Total Defense B +4.2 65

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 52% 248 B- 13.5% 79
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B+ 16% 26 B 7.2% 60
Three Pointers A+ 71% 5 D 0.3% 314
Total B+ 46% 22 B- 7.1% 70

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.6 207 17.6 248
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 291 0.12 41
Improvement -3.6 #331 +1.8 #90

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 107 95 80
Results Rating Rank 119 101 84
Conference Record 11 - 7 12 - 6 13 - 5
Conference Finish 4 2 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 12
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14% 17% 13%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 11.9 11.7 12.1
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 5% 12% 1%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round14% 17% 13%
Second Round2% 2% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Memphis (Away) - 40.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 3
Quad 23 - 45 - 7
Quad 35 - 49 - 11
Quad 411 - 120 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 223 UNC Asheville W 75 - 58 87% +4  72% 1 - 0 B +10 C +0 F A+ F A +11 A+ F A+
 Sat, Nov 8 331 Prairie View W 105 - 62 96% +18  99% 2 - 0 A+ +29 A +14 B+ B- A A+ +11 A+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 13 282 Loyola Chicago W 95 - 74 92% +14  90% 3 - 0 B +11 A+ +22 C+ A+ A+ F+ -9 F A+ D
 Tue, Nov 18 64 @Boise St. L 59 - 62 28% -4  23% 3 - 1 B +9 D- -6 F B+ D+ A+ +15 A+ C+ C
 Sat, Nov 22 271 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 75 - 58 91% +1  56% 4 - 1 B- +8 D+ -3 D- D A A+ +11 A B- C+
 Wed, Nov 26 40 St. Mary's L 65 - 70 23% -3  19% 4 - 2 B +8 C- -2 D+ C F+ A +10 A+ B+ D-
 Thu, Nov 27 91 Colorado St. L 70 - 76 48% -10  0% 4 - 3 C +0 B+ +8 F A+ B F+ -9 F A+ C-
 Fri, Nov 28 147 Western Kentucky L 70 - 75 68% -1  31% 4 - 4 C- -4 C+ +3 D+ C+ A- D- -8 D B D-
 Sat, Dec 6 94 @Northern Iowa W 74 - 69 OT 37% +2  55% 5 - 4 B+ +14 B +6 A- A- D+ A- +8 B A+ D-
 Sat, Dec 13 93 DePaul L 58 - 61 60% -1  30% 5 - 5 C -0 D- -7 D- C B B+ +7 F A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 17 238 Wofford W 84 - 73 88% +7  99% 6 - 5 C+ +4 B+ +7 B- B- B+ C- -3 B- F+ D+
 Sun, Dec 21 279 Eastern Kentucky W 88 - 57 91% +22  95% 7 - 5 A +21 B+ +8 C- A+ A A+ +14 A A+ F+
 Wed, Dec 31 121 @UAB W 75 - 70 49% -6  9% 8 - 5 1 - 0 B +11 A- +9 C+ A+ C C+ +2 B- C+ C-
 Sat, Jan 3 174 @Charlotte L 100 - 104 2OT 63% +4  67% 8 - 6 1 - 1 C- -2 A+ +17 B- A+ C F -18 B- F F
 Wed, Jan 7 232 Rice L 64 - 66 87% -2  36% 8 - 7 1 - 2 D -9 F -12 F F+ A B- +2 D+ A+ D
 Sun, Jan 11 137 North Texas W 78 - 67 75% +8  91% 9 - 7 2 - 2 B +9 B- +5 A C+ D- B +4 A- C- C-
 Thu, Jan 15 116 @Florida Atlantic L 67 - 85 48% -15  0% 9 - 8 2 - 3 D- -12 D+ -4 F B- C- D- -8 F A+ C-
 Sun, Jan 18 58 @South Florida W 86 - 85 OT 25% +1  43% 10 - 8 3 - 3 B+ +13 B+ +8 B C A B +5 B- A+ C-
 Wed, Jan 21 246 East Carolina W 77 - 60 89% +14  99% 11 - 8 4 - 3 B +9 B- +5 F A+ A B+ +5 A A F
 Sat, Jan 24 101 Memphis W 74 - 59 64% +13  92% 12 - 8 5 - 3 A- +17 C +1 B B- B A+ +16 A+ B- A
 Sun, Feb 1 76 @Tulsa L 83 - 93 31% -6  13% 12 - 9 5 - 4 C +1 B +6 F A+ A D -5 D- F C
 Wed, Feb 4 174 Charlotte W 74 - 64 81% +5  83% 13 - 9 6 - 4 B- +6 C- -2 B D A+ A +9 B A+ A-
 Sun, Feb 8 162 @Tulane W 75 - 61 61% +6  77% 14 - 9 7 - 4 A- +17 C- -1 B- F D- A+ +18 A+ A+ A
 Wed, Feb 11 58 South Florida L 58 - 66 46% +2  70% 14 - 10 7 - 5 C -2 F -15 F F+ C A+ +13 B- B+ A+
 Sat, Feb 14 76 Tulsa W 81 - 77 54% -3  7% 15 - 10 8 - 5 B +9 B +6 C+ C+ A+ B- +3 A A+ D
 Wed, Feb 18 246 @East Carolina W 92 - 89 2OT 75% -1  26% 16 - 10 9 - 5 C +1 C- -1 C D C B- +2 D A F
 Sat, Feb 21 156 Temple W 69 - 57 79% +5  70% 17 - 10 10 - 5 B +9 C +0 D+ B+ D- A +10 A+ D D
 Thu, Feb 26 101 @Memphis L 70 - 72 41%
 Sun, Mar 1 334 @Texas San Antonio W 79 - 65 91%
 Sat, Mar 7 116 Florida Atlantic W 76 - 70 69%
Totals 19 - 11 12 - 6 +6 C+ +1 B C- C B +4 C- D- C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ D+ C C- C- 41% 39% 36% C C- A- C- B B C+ D- C B B- C- B B- 36% 30% 34% A- B B- B B C B- B+ B
1.10 55% 38% 33% -2 0 0.98 39% 1.0 .39 15% .32 68% .22 1.03 55% 39% 31% -2 -1 0.95 28% 0.9 .27 17% .28 69% .22
Nov
4		 UNC Asheville C F A D F 45% 29% 27% D F A+ A+ A+ F D+ F D- A A+ C A- A- 13% 58% 29% A+ A+ C- F F A+ A- A A
1.11 36% 50% 31% -8 -1 0.86 51% 1.3 .66 21% .28 60% .17 0.86 33% 39% 29% -5 -7 0.79 31% 1.5 .47 24% .25 62% .15
Nov
8		 Prairie View A C A+ A+ B+ 42% 13% 44% B- B+ B C- B- A A+ B- A+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ 27% 46% 27% A+ A+ D- F F A+ F D+ F
1.37 59% 57% 43% +9 +1 1.23 41% 1.1 .44 13% .61 76% .46 0.81 43% 25% 7% -21 -4 0.52 28% 1.4 .40 22% .47 79% .37
Nov
13		 Loyola Chicago A+ D+ F A+ C+ 33% 18% 49% C+ C+ A- A+ A+ A+ C+ F D+ F+ D A+ F F 40% 17% 44% B- F C- A+ A+ D D+ F F
1.46 53% 10% 46% +2 0 1.07 37% 1.6 .58 3% .30 68% .21 1.13 63% 13% 48% +7 +1 1.17 32% 0.5 .15 17% .33 83% .28
Nov
18		 Boise St. D- F B+ F+ F 40% 29% 31% C F A+ F+ B+ D+ A C- A- A+ A+ A+ F+ A+ 44% 22% 33% B A+ B D+ C+ C F+ A+ C
0.92 33% 46% 29% -10 -1 0.80 36% 0.9 .33 17% .36 68% .25 0.97 40% 10% 40% -11 0 0.80 30% 1.1 .32 16% .43 65% .28
Nov
22		 Wisconsin-Milwaukee D+ F A A- D 45% 24% 31% D D- B+ F D A A+ F+ A A+ C+ A+ A A 30% 32% 38% A- A B+ D B- C+ C- B+ C
1.12 41% 50% 40% -2 0 0.98 36% 0.8 .28 12% .47 68% .32 0.87 53% 25% 26% -10 -2 0.78 26% 1.2 .31 16% .29 63% .18
Nov
26		 St. Mary's C- F+ D C- D+ 48% 26% 26% C+ D+ C+ C- C F+ A+ A- A+ A B D- A+ A+ 43% 29% 29% B A+ A C B+ D- F D F
0.95 46% 31% 31% -9 0 0.84 26% 0.9 .23 19% .34 79% .27 1.02 52% 43% 7% -13 -1 0.76 31% 1.1 .33 13% .44 85% .37
Nov
27		 Colorado St. B+ D+ A F F 41% 18% 41% B F A+ A+ A+ B C+ F D+ F+ F+ F F F 30% 13% 57% C F C A+ A+ C- A+ A+ A+
1.19 56% 50% 11% -13 +1 0.77 54% 1.4 .76 14% .30 60% .18 1.30 71% 100% 46% +22 0 1.48 32% 0.6 .18 17% .23 55% .12
Nov
28		 Western Kentucky C+ D+ D B C- 31% 29% 40% D D+ A+ F C+ A- A A+ A+ D- A F F F+ 40% 29% 31% A- D C+ A- B D- F D F
1.10 53% 36% 37% 0 -2 0.98 40% 0.7 .28 14% .48 81% .38 1.18 42% 50% 40% 0 -1 1.00 32% 0.8 .26 11% .41 78% .32
Dec
6		 Northern Iowa B B+ F A A 35% 22% 43% D+ A- A- B A- D+ B B+ B+ A- B F A+ B+ 58% 17% 25% D- B C A+ A+ D- F A+ D+
1.05 65% 27% 38% +3 0 1.06 32% 1.0 .32 20% .30 76% .23 0.98 55% 56% 23% -3 +2 1.00 22% 0.5 .11 11% .35 55% .19
Dec
13		 DePaul D- D- F D- F 50% 19% 31% A- D- A F C B A+ F B B+ C F F F 40% 21% 38% C- F A- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+
0.92 48% 25% 31% -9 +1 0.86 39% 0.7 .26 17% .54 46% .25 0.97 59% 56% 44% +10 0 1.21 25% 0.7 .17 29% .22 60% .13
Dec
17		 Wofford B+ A B+ D+ B 42% 24% 33% D B- B- C+ B- B+ A+ F A+ C- B F A B- 37% 18% 45% B B- F C+ F+ D+ F C F
1.27 68% 45% 33% +6 0 1.13 33% 1.2 .39 12% .62 69% .43 1.11 50% 56% 27% -4 0 0.94 39% 0.9 .37 14% .44 72% .32
Dec
21		 Eastern Kentucky B+ C- F C D- 54% 5% 41% A+ C- B A+ A+ A F F F A+ F A+ A A 20% 34% 46% A A A+ F A+ F+ A+ A+ A+
1.31 60% 33% 35% +1 +3 1.11 38% 1.4 .54 10% .23 57% .13 0.85 82% 16% 27% -8 -3 0.80 15% 1.3 .20 13% .12 57% .07
Dec
31		 UAB A- A F A+ B- 36% 30% 34% D C+ A+ A- A+ C B+ C+ B+ C+ D+ A- A+ B- 47% 33% 20% B B- B D C+ C- F C F
1.15 72% 7% 47% +2 -1 1.04 43% 1.1 .46 17% .30 75% .22 1.08 63% 29% 20% -5 -1 0.90 29% 1.1 .31 11% .41 71% .29
Jan
3		 Charlotte A+ B F+ B- B- 42% 18% 40% B- B- A+ A- A+ C C+ A+ A- F A- F C- B- 39% 16% 45% C+ B- F F F F F D- F
1.34 65% 30% 36% +3 +1 1.09 56% 1.3 .73 15% .35 82% .28 1.39 50% 56% 36% +1 +1 1.05 45% 1.4 .63 12% .58 76% .44
Jan
7		 Rice F F F C- F 39% 27% 34% B- F C F F+ A A+ B A+ B- C+ F A+ F+ 22% 45% 33% A+ D+ A+ A A+ D C+ A- B-
0.99 41% 17% 33% -13 -1 0.75 33% 0.7 .22 11% .54 77% .42 1.02 55% 59% 25% +4 -4 1.02 27% 0.7 .19 15% .29 63% .18
Jan
11		 North Texas B- C A A+ A+ 52% 25% 23% B- A A F C+ D- A+ B- A+ B A+ B F A 60% 25% 15% C A- C- C C- C- D+ D+ D+
1.10 57% 45% 50% +6 0 1.16 43% 0.8 .36 25% .55 72% .40 0.94 39% 29% 38% -13 +1 0.78 36% 1.0 .36 17% .37 73% .27
Jan
15		 Florida Atlantic D+ F+ D+ F F 55% 22% 24% C+ F A F B- C- A F C+ D- F F C F 46% 21% 32% C- F C A+ A+ C- D+ A C+
0.96 47% 33% 23% -11 +1 0.82 38% 0.8 .31 17% .40 57% .22 1.21 73% 58% 33% +11 0 1.25 33% 0.5 .17 17% .33 63% .21
Jan
18		 South Florida B+ F F A+ B- 41% 20% 39% B B A F C A B F C B A+ A+ F C+ 42% 16% 42% A- B- B+ A+ A+ C- B D B-
1.12 42% 25% 52% +1 0 1.05 41% 0.7 .30 14% .35 61% .21 1.11 42% 22% 42% -5 +1 0.95 34% 0.9 .30 14% .33 77% .26
Jan
21		 East Carolina B- A A+ F F 26% 20% 54% C- F A+ A- A+ A A- C A- B+ C A+ A+ A- 33% 35% 31% A A B+ A+ A F B- A- B
1.18 69% 60% 15% -8 -1 0.84 43% 1.3 .55 12% .33 74% .25 0.92 56% 21% 24% -12 -2 0.74 27% 0.8 .20 9% .32 63% .20
Jan
24		 Memphis C B C- C- B 39% 21% 39% C+ B C- A- B- B F F F A+ C+ D+ A+ A+ 27% 35% 37% A+ A+ A+ F B- A A C A
1.03 64% 33% 32% 0 0 1.02 31% 1.1 .33 18% .14 63% .08 0.82 57% 39% 16% -10 -3 0.76 24% 1.6 .38 24% .20 73% .15
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
1		 Tulsa B F B+ C- F 47% 24% 29% C+ F B A+ A+ A A+ F A+ D F D C- F 42% 19% 40% A- D- C- F F C F A+ D-
1.14 38% 42% 33% -9 0 0.84 30% 1.5 .47 11% .50 63% .31 1.28 75% 44% 37% +10 0 1.23 33% 2.1 .71 15% .44 70% .31
Feb
4		 Charlotte C- B- A+ C B 43% 20% 37% C+ B C F D A+ A- F D A B+ F+ D C+ 35% 33% 33% A+ B A- A+ A+ A- B+ C B+
1.11 62% 50% 33% +4 0 1.10 29% 0.9 .26 9% .40 50% .20 0.96 53% 44% 38% +2 -2 1.02 28% 0.4 .11 23% .27 71% .19
Feb
8		 Tulane C- B- A+ D- B- 42% 16% 42% B- B- C+ F F D- C F F+ A+ D A+ A+ A+ 45% 20% 35% C- A+ A- A+ A+ A D F+ F+
1.03 61% 56% 30% +2 +1 1.07 36% 0.6 .21 21% .33 53% .17 0.84 64% 10% 18% -12 0 0.80 16% 0.7 .11 19% .41 83% .34
Feb
11		 South Florida F D D F F 27% 29% 44% D F B- F F+ C C D+ C A+ B- F A C+ 48% 18% 34% A- B- C A- B+ A+ F A+ F+
0.84 50% 33% 22% -12 -2 0.75 33% 0.5 .18 19% .32 67% .21 0.95 52% 50% 27% -4 +1 0.95 39% 1.0 .39 26% .54 61% .33
Feb
14		 Tulsa B A- A+ F B- 43% 31% 25% D C+ A F C+ A+ A+ F A B- B- F A- B+ 20% 25% 55% A+ A A A+ A+ D C+ C+ C+
1.18 68% 56% 15% +3 -1 1.06 36% 0.9 .31 9% .43 63% .27 1.13 55% 50% 30% -1 -2 0.96 24% 1.0 .24 13% .32 79% .25
Feb
18		 East Carolina C- B- A+ F C 38% 28% 34% D+ C C- F D C B+ F C+ B- A+ F A F 35% 48% 17% A+ D B- A+ A F C- A+ B
1.04 63% 56% 23% +1 -1 1.02 30% 0.9 .27 17% .31 65% .21 1.01 38% 61% 25% +1 -4 0.97 30% 0.7 .22 12% .36 57% .21
Feb
21		 Temple C F D+ A+ C+ 26% 44% 31% F D+ A+ D B+ D- A+ C A+ A A+ A+ D+ A+ 24% 53% 22% A+ A+ C+ F D D C+ A+ A-
1.12 40% 35% 50% +2 -4 0.97 42% 0.9 .39 18% .58 72% .42 0.93 42% 27% 36% -9 -5 0.73 28% 1.2 .33 11% .35 63% .22



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.8 4.7 5.5 1st
2nd 2.2 26.5 21.8 50.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 14.5 22.5 37.2 3rd
4th 0.7 5.1 5.8 4th
5th 0.8 0.1 0.9 5th
6th 0.2 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 2.0 21.8 49.8 26.5 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 17.7% 4.7    0.4 2.6 1.8
12-6 1.6% 0.8    0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 5.5% 5.5 0.4 2.6 2.2 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 26.5% 17.8% 17.8% 0.0% 11.6 0.0 1.9 2.7 0.1 21.7 0.0%
12-6 49.8% 14.6% 14.6% 12.0 0.0 1.0 5.3 1.0 0.0 42.5
11-7 21.8% 10.3% 10.3% 12.2 0.1 1.6 0.6 19.6
10-8 2.0% 5.7% 5.7% 12.3 0.1 0.0 1.9
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 14.3% 14.3% 0.0% 11.9 85.7 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.7% 100.0% 11.6 0.4 40.3 57.9 1.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.2% 0.1% 12.0 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 8.4%
Lose Out 0.5%