IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Wichita St.
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating	+4.8	#99
Expected Predictive Rating	+2.7	#120

Pace	65.8	#261
Improvement	-2.7	#295

	Overall	1st FGA	Second Chance	TOs	Free throws	Shot Selection
Offense	#102	C-	A-	B	C	C
Defense	#106	B-	B-	C-	B-	B+

Offense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	42%	#77	1.07	#292	+0.2	#165
2 Pt. Jumpers	21%	#168	0.70	#266	-0.4	#196
Three Pointers	37%	#271	1.02	#177	-2.0	#254
1st FG Attempt			0.98	#242	-2.2	#243
Freethrows	0.31	#170	69%	#287	0.21	#207
Second Chance	40.3%	#6	1.08	#107	0.44	#20
Turnovers					14.4%	#51
Total Offense					+2.7	#102

Defense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	37%	#230	1.12	#127	+1.7	#117
2 Pt. Jumpers	28%	#17	0.77	#211	-3.1	#351
Three Pointers	35%	#333	0.94	#72	+4.4	#26
1st FG Attempt			0.96	#80	+3.0	#81
Freethrows	0.28	#96	70%	#55	0.19	#76
Second Chance	28.5%	#95	0.98	#103	0.28	#90
Turnovers					16.0%	#220
Total Defense					+2.2	#106

Miscellaneous

	Offense		Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect	0.4%	#163	-2.2%	#28
Shot Type Accuracy Effect	-4.6%	#258	-3.9%	#98
Possession Length	17.5	#201	17.9	#292
Fast Break Points Per Possession	0.12	#310	0.13	#49
Improvement	-1.1	#248	-1.6	#275

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	10.6%	11.6%	7.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	12.0	11.9	12.3

.500 or above	96.4%	98.2%	89.9%
.500 or above in Conference	93.0%	96.2%	82.0%
Conference Champion	8.0%	9.8%	1.8%
Last Place in Conference	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

First Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
First Round	10.6%	11.6%	7.3%
Second Round	1.3%	1.5%	0.8%
Sweet Sixteen	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Charlotte (Home) - 77.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	1 - 3	1 - 3
Quad 2	3 - 4	4 - 7
Quad 3	4 - 5	9 - 12
Quad 4	10 - 2	19 - 13

Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Record		Total Rating	Offense				Defense
Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Overall	Conf	Total Rating	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs
Tue, Nov 4	209 UNC Asheville	W	75 - 58	84%	+4	1 - 0		+11	+2	F	A+	F	+9	A+	F	A
Sat, Nov 8	339 Prairie View	W	105 - 62	95%	+18	2 - 0		+29	+17	B+	B	A+	+8	A+	F	A+
Thu, Nov 13	279 Loyola Chicago	W	95 - 74	91%	+14	3 - 0		+11	+23	C+	A+	A+	-11	F	A+	D+
Tue, Nov 18	62 @Boise St.	L	59 - 62	25%	-4	3 - 1		+9	-2	F	A-	C-	+11	A+	B-	C
Sat, Nov 22	254 Wisconsin-Milwaukee	W	75 - 58	89%	+1	4 - 1		+9	+1	D	D	A-	+9	A	C+	B-
Wed, Nov 26	42 St. Mary's	L	65 - 70	25%	-3	4 - 2		+7	-0	C-	C	F+	+7	A+	B	D-
Thu, Nov 27	103 Colorado St.	L	70 - 76	51%	-10	4 - 3		-1	+10	F	A+	B	-13	F	A+	D+
Fri, Nov 28	156 Western Kentucky	L	70 - 75	68%	-1	4 - 4		-5	+6	D+	B-	A-	-11	D	B	D-
Sat, Dec 6	110 @Northern Iowa	W	74 - 69 OT	43%	+2	5 - 4		+12	+8	A-	B+	D	+3	C+	A	D-
Sat, Dec 13	94 DePaul	L	58 - 61	58%	-1	5 - 5		-0	-5	D-	C	B	+4	F	A+	A+
Wed, Dec 17	200 Wofford	W	84 - 73	84%	+7	6 - 5		+5	+11	B	B-	A-	-5	C+	D-	D+
Sun, Dec 21	265 Eastern Kentucky	W	88 - 57	90%	+22	7 - 5		+22	+12	C-	A+	A	+12	A	A+	F+
Wed, Dec 31	120 @UAB	W	75 - 70	46%	-6	8 - 5	1 - 0	+11	+11	C+	A+	C	+1	B-	C+	C-
Sat, Jan 3	157 @Charlotte	L	100 - 104 2OT	57%	+4	8 - 6	1 - 1	-1	+19	B-	A+	C+	-20	B-	F	F
Wed, Jan 7	233 Rice	L	64 - 66	86%	-2	8 - 7	1 - 2	-9	-9	F	F+	A+	-0	D+	A+	D
Sun, Jan 11	147 North Texas	W	78 - 67	75%	+8	9 - 7	2 - 2	+9	+8	A+	C+	D-	+1	A-	D+	C-
Thu, Jan 15	109 @Florida Atlantic	L	67 - 85	43%	-15	9 - 8	2 - 3	-11	-2	F	C+	C	-9	F	A+	C-
Sun, Jan 18	70 @South Florida	W	86 - 85 OT	27%	+1	10 - 8	3 - 3	+12	+10	B-	C	A	+2	B-	A+	D+
Wed, Jan 21	247 East Carolina	W	77 - 60	88%	+14	11 - 8	4 - 3	+9	+9	F	A+	A+	+2	A-	A	F
Sat, Jan 24	96 Memphis	W	74 - 59	59%	+13	12 - 8	5 - 3	+17	+4	B	B-	B+	+13	A+	B-	A-
Sun, Feb 1	69 @Tulsa	L	83 - 93	27%	-6	12 - 9	5 - 4	+1	+8	F	A+	A+	-7	D	F	C
Wed, Feb 4	157 Charlotte	W	75 - 67	78%
Sun, Feb 8	171 @Tulane	W	74 - 71	60%
Wed, Feb 11	70 South Florida	L	78 - 79	49%
Sat, Feb 14	69 Tulsa	L	77 - 78	49%
Wed, Feb 18	247 @East Carolina	W	75 - 68	74%
Sat, Feb 21	143 Temple	W	75 - 68	74%
Thu, Feb 26	96 @Memphis	L	69 - 73	38%
Sun, Mar 1	342 @Texas San Antonio	W	80 - 67	90%
Sat, Mar 7	109 Florida Atlantic	W	77 - 73	65%
Totals						18 - 12	11 - 7	+5	+3	C-	A-	B	+2	B-	B-	C-

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected American Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0	Total
1st												0.0	1.2	4.8	2.1					8.0	1st
2nd												0.9	8.8	4.7	0.2					14.6	2nd
3rd											0.3	8.1	8.5	0.4						17.3	3rd
4th										0.0	2.7	11.8	1.2	0.0						15.8	4th
5th										0.3	7.5	5.1	0.1							12.9	5th
6th									0.0	2.4	8.2	0.7								11.3	6th
7th									0.5	6.1	2.6	0.0								9.3	7th
8th								0.2	2.6	3.8	0.2									6.8	8th
9th							0.0	0.5	1.9	0.4										2.8	9th
10th							0.1	0.6	0.3	0.0										1.1	10th
11th							0.1	0.1	0.0											0.2	11th
12th						0.0		0.0												0.0	12th
13th																					13th

Total						0.0	0.2	1.5	5.3	13.0	21.5	26.6	19.8	9.9	2.3						Total

American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total	Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4	91.8%	2.1	1.2	0.9	0.0
13-5	48.0%	4.8	0.9	2.4	1.3	0.1	0.0
12-6	6.0%	1.2	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.4	0.1	0.0
11-7	0.1%	0.0					0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	8.0%	8.0	2.1	3.4	1.7	0.6	0.2	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance	Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid	At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4	2.3%	23.1%	22.7%	0.4%	11.1									0.0	0.0	0.4	0.1	0.0				1.7	0.6%
13-5	9.9%	20.3%	20.2%	0.1%	11.7											0.7	1.2	0.0				7.9	0.1%
12-6	19.8%	16.0%	16.0%		11.9											0.6	2.4	0.2				16.6
11-7	26.6%	10.0%	10.0%		12.1											0.2	2.1	0.4				24.0
10-8	21.5%	6.5%	6.5%		12.3											0.1	0.9	0.4	0.0			20.1
9-9	13.0%	5.1%	5.1%		12.4											0.0	0.4	0.2	0.0			12.4
8-10	5.3%	3.3%	3.3%		13.2												0.0	0.1	0.0			5.1
7-11	1.5%	2.4%	2.4%		13.7													0.0	0.0			1.4
6-12	0.2%	10.5%	10.5%		14.5														0.0	0.0		0.2
5-13	0.0%																					0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18

Total	100%	10.6%	10.6%	0.0%	12.0																	89.4	0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	9	10	11	12	13
Win Out	0.5%	100.0%	11.1	2.0	6.9	69.6	19.6	2.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.5%	1.9%	12.0				1.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.6%