N.C. A&T
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.3#322
Expected Predictive Rating-13.9#342
Pace77.0#21
Improvement+0.4#162

Offense
Total Offense-4.2#289
First Shot-3.6#282
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#236
Layup/Dunks-1.3#236
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#90
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#262
Freethrows-1.1#254
Improvement-0.6#219

Defense
Total Defense-5.1#322
First Shot-3.7#294
After Offensive Rebounds-1.4#296
Layups/Dunks-5.0#339
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#185
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#98
Freethrows-0.9#249
Improvement+1.0#127
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 n/a 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 69.1% 54.2% 71.4%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Towson (Away) - 13.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 31 - 111 - 16
Quad 45 - 96 - 25


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 59   @ Wake Forest L 64-80 3%     0 - 1 -3.9 -9.2 +7.5
  Nov 12, 2024 119   @ George Washington L 80-85 9%     0 - 2 +0.4 +5.1 -4.3
  Nov 17, 2024 352   @ The Citadel W 82-73 54%     1 - 2 -1.2 +5.5 -6.7
  Nov 20, 2024 333   Morgan St. W 86-83 68%     2 - 2 -11.1 -6.7 -4.7
  Nov 25, 2024 330   @ Buffalo L 81-82 44%     2 - 3 -8.8 -4.3 -4.4
  Nov 29, 2024 164   @ East Carolina L 69-93 13%     2 - 4 -21.1 -0.7 -20.9
  Dec 03, 2024 254   @ Hampton L 71-82 26%     2 - 5 0 - 1 -13.7 -4.6 -8.7
  Dec 07, 2024 129   UNC Greensboro L 55-67 20%     2 - 6 -12.6 -13.1 -0.7
  Dec 12, 2024 137   @ Virginia Tech L 67-95 10%     2 - 7 -23.6 -10.1 -11.2
  Dec 14, 2024 91   @ Liberty L 74-83 6%     2 - 8 -0.1 +5.9 -5.9
  Dec 17, 2024 293   Coastal Carolina L 68-73 54%     2 - 9 -15.3 -9.3 -6.1
  Dec 21, 2024 46   @ Arkansas L 67-95 3%     2 - 10 -14.2 -1.9 -10.5
  Dec 28, 2024 305   NC Central W 85-72 55%     3 - 10 +2.3 +9.8 -6.8
  Jan 02, 2025 158   Elon L 67-75 25%     3 - 11 0 - 2 -10.3 +0.1 -11.4
  Jan 04, 2025 186   Drexel L 59-68 30%     3 - 12 0 - 3 -12.9 -13.0 -0.1
  Jan 09, 2025 195   Delaware L 88-98 31%     3 - 13 0 - 4 -14.3 -4.4 -8.3
  Jan 11, 2025 194   @ William & Mary L 78-81 16%     3 - 14 0 - 5 -1.8 -3.5 +1.9
  Jan 16, 2025 268   Monmouth L 63-72 48%     3 - 15 0 - 6 -17.8 -11.6 -6.5
  Jan 20, 2025 254   Hampton L 73-74 45%     3 - 16 0 - 7 -9.1 +2.4 -11.6
  Jan 23, 2025 174   @ Towson L 64-75 13%    
  Jan 25, 2025 320   @ Stony Brook L 74-77 38%    
  Jan 30, 2025 135   UNC Wilmington L 72-80 22%    
  Feb 06, 2025 126   @ College of Charleston L 75-89 9%    
  Feb 08, 2025 250   @ Campbell L 70-77 25%    
  Feb 13, 2025 158   @ Elon L 69-81 12%    
  Feb 15, 2025 126   College of Charleston L 77-86 20%    
  Feb 20, 2025 250   Campbell L 73-75 45%    
  Feb 22, 2025 320   Stony Brook W 77-74 60%    
  Feb 27, 2025 202   @ Northeastern L 72-82 17%    
  Mar 01, 2025 175   @ Hofstra L 63-74 14%    
Projected Record 6 - 24 3 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 2.1 11th
12th 0.3 1.9 3.1 1.4 0.1 6.8 12th
13th 0.5 5.6 13.1 12.5 4.4 0.4 0.0 36.4 13th
14th 5.3 15.6 19.1 11.0 2.6 0.2 53.7 14th
Total 5.3 16.0 24.6 24.3 17.2 8.4 3.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0% 0.0
8-10 0.2% 0.0 0.2
7-11 0.8% 0.8
6-12 3.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.2
5-13 8.4% 8.4
4-14 17.2% 17.2
3-15 24.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 24.3
2-16 24.6% 24.6
1-17 16.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.0
0-18 5.3% 5.3
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 4.0%