N.C. A&T
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.4#290
Expected Predictive Rating-1.2#200
Pace77.9#24
Improvement+0.2#158

Offense
Total Offense-2.8#256
First Shot+2.9#95
After Offensive Rebound-5.7#363
Layup/Dunks-1.0#224
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#54
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#150
Freethrows+0.3#179
Improvement+0.7#104

Defense
Total Defense-3.7#297
First Shot-4.6#310
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#119
Layups/Dunks-9.6#361
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#54
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#204
Freethrows+3.4#23
Improvement-0.4#241
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.1% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.6 15.2
.500 or above 15.4% 22.4% 8.2%
.500 or above in Conference 26.1% 31.6% 20.5%
Conference Champion 0.9% 1.4% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 16.6% 13.1% 20.2%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.7% 1.0% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Buffalo (Away) - 50.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 32 - 72 - 14
Quad 49 - 612 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 72   @ Wake Forest L 64-80 6%     0 - 1 -5.3 -12.2 +9.0
  Nov 12, 2024 149   @ George Washington L 80-85 17%     0 - 2 -1.4 +1.6 -2.6
  Nov 17, 2024 321   @ The Citadel W 82-73 48%     1 - 2 +3.2 +7.5 -4.4
  Nov 20, 2024 335   Morgan St. W 86-83 75%     2 - 2 -10.5 -5.0 -5.8
  Nov 25, 2024 331   @ Buffalo W 80-79 50%    
  Nov 29, 2024 166   @ East Carolina L 69-78 20%    
  Dec 03, 2024 310   @ Hampton L 72-73 46%    
  Dec 07, 2024 162   UNC Greensboro L 72-75 38%    
  Dec 12, 2024 113   @ Virginia Tech L 70-83 12%    
  Dec 14, 2024 73   @ Liberty L 63-80 6%    
  Dec 17, 2024 292   Coastal Carolina W 72-69 62%    
  Dec 21, 2024 27   @ Arkansas L 68-90 2%    
  Dec 28, 2024 276   NC Central W 79-76 59%    
  Jan 02, 2025 160   Elon L 77-81 38%    
  Jan 04, 2025 144   Drexel L 70-74 34%    
  Jan 09, 2025 216   Delaware L 79-80 47%    
  Jan 11, 2025 222   @ William & Mary L 79-86 28%    
  Jan 16, 2025 273   Monmouth W 79-77 59%    
  Jan 20, 2025 310   Hampton W 75-70 67%    
  Jan 23, 2025 127   @ Towson L 65-77 15%    
  Jan 25, 2025 299   @ Stony Brook L 76-78 43%    
  Jan 30, 2025 152   UNC Wilmington L 77-81 37%    
  Feb 06, 2025 110   @ College of Charleston L 74-87 13%    
  Feb 08, 2025 278   @ Campbell L 74-77 38%    
  Feb 13, 2025 160   @ Elon L 74-84 21%    
  Feb 15, 2025 110   College of Charleston L 77-84 27%    
  Feb 20, 2025 278   Campbell W 77-74 59%    
  Feb 22, 2025 299   Stony Brook W 79-75 64%    
  Feb 27, 2025 163   @ Northeastern L 70-79 21%    
  Mar 01, 2025 142   @ Hofstra L 68-79 18%    
Projected Record 11 - 19 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.5 0.1 2.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 1.8 0.8 0.1 3.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.2 1.5 0.2 0.0 4.4 5th
6th 0.2 2.2 2.5 0.5 0.0 5.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.0 3.7 1.1 0.1 7.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.7 4.3 2.3 0.2 0.0 8.6 8th
9th 0.1 1.3 4.7 3.9 0.6 0.0 10.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 4.1 4.9 1.2 0.1 11.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 3.6 5.1 1.8 0.1 11.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 3.2 5.2 2.5 0.2 0.0 11.7 12th
13th 0.1 0.8 3.0 4.9 2.5 0.3 0.0 11.6 13th
14th 0.3 1.4 2.9 3.2 1.7 0.4 0.0 9.9 14th
Total 0.3 1.5 3.7 6.7 10.5 12.6 13.3 13.5 11.8 9.5 6.8 4.7 2.6 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 91.8% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 75.4% 0.2    0.1 0.0 0.0
14-4 47.8% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 14.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.1% 24.5% 24.5% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.3% 12.7% 12.7% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 0.7% 7.9% 7.9% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
13-5 1.5% 5.5% 5.5% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.4
12-6 2.6% 6.1% 6.1% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.4
11-7 4.7% 3.2% 3.2% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 4.6
10-8 6.8% 2.0% 2.0% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.6
9-9 9.5% 1.0% 1.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 9.4
8-10 11.8% 0.3% 0.3% 15.7 0.0 0.0 11.8
7-11 13.5% 0.1% 0.1% 15.8 0.0 0.0 13.5
6-12 13.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.3
5-13 12.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.6
4-14 10.5% 10.5
3-15 6.7% 6.7
2-16 3.7% 3.7
1-17 1.5% 1.5
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%