IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Penn St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating	+11.3	#36
Expected Predictive Rating	+1.0	#176

Pace	78.1	#25
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+5.5	#45

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+5.8	#33

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.2%	0.3%	0.0%
#1 Seed	1.0%	1.3%	0.3%
Top 2 Seed	2.6%	3.6%	0.9%
Top 4 Seed	9.3%	11.9%	4.6%
Top 6 Seed	19.1%	23.6%	10.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid	50.8%	57.8%	37.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	48.2%	55.1%	35.6%
Average Seed	7.2	7.0	7.7

.500 or above	88.4%	93.5%	78.8%
.500 or above in Conference	58.7%	63.8%	49.2%
Conference Champion	6.1%	7.4%	3.6%
Last Place in Conference	4.5%	3.3%	6.7%

First Four	4.1%	4.2%	4.0%
First Round	48.8%	55.8%	35.7%
Second Round	30.0%	35.0%	20.6%
Sweet Sixteen	12.5%	15.1%	7.6%
Elite Eight	5.4%	6.6%	3.0%
Final Four	2.1%	2.7%	1.2%
Championship Game	0.8%	1.0%	0.5%
National Champion	0.3%	0.4%	0.2%

Next Game: Virginia Tech (Neutral) - 65.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	2 - 5	2 - 5
Quad 1b	3 - 3	5 - 8
Quad 2	5 - 3	9 - 11
Quad 3	4 - 1	13 - 11
Quad 4	7 - 0	20 - 11

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2024	330	Binghamton	W	108-66	98%	1 - 0			+29.4	+24.1	+3.5
Nov 08, 2024	302	Maryland Baltimore Co.	W	103-54	97%	2 - 0			+38.9	+9.5	+22.9
Nov 12, 2024	350	St. Francis (PA)	W	92-62	99%	3 - 0			+14.3	+0.3	+10.0
Nov 15, 2024	82	Virginia Tech	W	78-74	65%
Nov 20, 2024	150	Purdue Fort Wayne	W	86-73	89%
Nov 25, 2024	159	Fordham	W	81-70	84%
Dec 01, 2024	315	Buffalo	W	91-68	98%
Dec 05, 2024	15	Purdue	L	77-78	49%
Dec 10, 2024	37	@ Rutgers	L	72-75	40%
Dec 14, 2024	363	Coppin St.	W	86-54	99.8%
Dec 21, 2024	137	@ Drexel	W	74-67	74%
Dec 29, 2024	208	Penn	W	84-67	93%
Jan 02, 2025	50	Northwestern	W	75-70	65%
Jan 05, 2025	24	Indiana	W	77-76	55%
Jan 08, 2025	20	@ Illinois	L	77-82	34%
Jan 12, 2025	39	Oregon	W	77-74	62%
Jan 15, 2025	27	@ Michigan St.	L	74-78	35%
Jan 20, 2025	37	Rutgers	W	75-72	61%
Jan 24, 2025	45	@ Iowa	L	84-86	44%
Jan 27, 2025	25	@ Michigan	L	75-79	35%
Jan 30, 2025	17	Ohio St.	W	75-74	51%
Feb 04, 2025	88	Minnesota	W	78-70	76%
Feb 08, 2025	30	@ UCLA	L	68-72	36%
Feb 11, 2025	65	@ USC	L	78-79	49%
Feb 15, 2025	79	Washington	W	82-75	73%
Feb 19, 2025	67	Nebraska	W	78-72	70%
Feb 22, 2025	88	@ Minnesota	W	75-73	57%
Feb 26, 2025	24	@ Indiana	L	74-79	35%
Mar 01, 2025	31	Maryland	W	74-72	58%
Mar 08, 2025	38	@ Wisconsin	L	73-76	41%
Projected Record						19 - 11	10 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big Ten Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st														0.1	0.5	1.5	1.7	1.3	0.7	0.2	0.0		6.1	1st
2nd													0.0	0.7	2.3	2.2	1.1	0.3	0.0				6.6	2nd
3rd												0.0	0.5	2.4	2.4	0.9	0.1	0.0					6.4	3rd
4th												0.2	1.8	3.1	1.4	0.1	0.0						6.7	4th
5th											0.0	1.0	3.5	2.0	0.2								6.7	5th
6th											0.3	2.7	2.8	0.5	0.0								6.4	6th
7th										0.0	1.5	3.8	1.1	0.1									6.4	7th
8th									0.0	0.4	3.3	2.5	0.3										6.4	8th
9th									0.0	1.7	3.7	0.8	0.0										6.3	9th
10th								0.0	0.5	3.2	2.1	0.1	0.0										5.8	10th
11th								0.1	1.8	3.2	0.6												5.8	11th
12th							0.0	0.7	3.2	1.6	0.1												5.7	12th
13th						0.0	0.3	2.1	2.6	0.3	0.0												5.3	13th
14th					0.0	0.1	1.1	2.7	1.1	0.1													5.0	14th
15th					0.0	0.7	2.0	1.8	0.2	0.0													4.7	15th
16th				0.1	0.5	1.3	1.6	0.4	0.0													3.9	16th
17th			0.0	0.4	1.0	1.3	0.6	0.0														3.5	17th
18th	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.7	0.8	0.4	0.0	0.0														2.3	18th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.4	1.2	2.3	3.9	5.6	7.8	9.5	10.6	11.6	11.1	10.0	8.9	6.9	4.7	2.9	1.6	0.7	0.2	0.0		Total

Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
19-1	100.0%	0.2		0.2
18-2	96.9%	0.7		0.7	0.1
17-3	83.5%	1.3		1.0	0.3	0.0
16-4	58.1%	1.7		0.9	0.7	0.1	0.0
15-5	30.9%	1.5		0.4	0.6	0.3	0.0
14-6	7.5%	0.5		0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0		0.0
13-7	0.7%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	6.1%	6.1		3.3	1.8	0.7	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.0%							0.0	0.0
19-1	0.2%		100.0%	36.6%	63.4%	1.4		0.1	0.1	0.0																100.0%
18-2	0.7%		100.0%	33.5%	66.5%	1.9		0.3	0.3	0.2	0.0		0.0													100.0%
17-3	1.6%		100.0%	24.5%	75.5%	2.6		0.3	0.5	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0												100.0%
16-4	2.9%		100.0%	21.5%	78.5%	3.5		0.2	0.5	0.9	0.7	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0											100.0%
15-5	4.7%		99.7%	17.1%	82.6%	4.5		0.1	0.3	0.8	1.4	1.1	0.8	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0							0.0		99.7%
14-6	6.9%		99.3%	13.3%	86.0%	5.8		0.0	0.1	0.4	1.0	1.5	1.7	1.3	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.0						0.0		99.2%
13-7	8.9%		95.5%	8.5%	87.0%	7.0				0.1	0.4	1.0	1.5	2.2	1.9	1.0	0.4	0.1						0.4		95.1%
12-8	10.0%		87.3%	5.2%	82.2%	8.1				0.0	0.1	0.4	0.8	1.5	2.3	1.9	1.3	0.4	0.0					1.3		86.6%
11-9	11.1%		69.6%	2.8%	66.8%	9.0					0.0	0.1	0.3	0.7	1.6	2.0	1.9	1.0	0.1					3.4		68.7%
10-10	11.6%		50.0%	1.9%	48.1%	9.6						0.0	0.1	0.3	0.7	1.2	1.7	1.6	0.2					5.8		49.0%
9-11	10.6%		22.8%	0.8%	22.0%	10.4								0.0	0.1	0.3	0.7	1.1	0.2	0.0				8.2		22.2%
8-12	9.5%		5.8%	0.2%	5.6%	10.9							0.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.1					8.9		5.6%
7-13	7.8%		0.7%	0.1%	0.6%	11.3											0.0	0.0	0.0					7.7		0.6%
6-14	5.6%																							5.6
5-15	3.9%																							3.9
4-16	2.3%																							2.3
3-17	1.2%																							1.2
2-18	0.4%																							0.4
1-19	0.1%																							0.1
0-20	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		50.8%	5.0%	45.8%	7.2		1.0	1.7	2.8	3.9	4.5	5.3	6.4	7.4	6.6	6.2	4.6	0.6	0.0				49.2		48.2%