UC Irvine
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.8#60
Expected Predictive Rating+17.5#14
Pace70.2#156
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.2#112
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.5#19
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.8% 0.8% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 3.2% 3.5% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 6.6% 7.1% 1.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 52.1% 53.3% 38.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 8.6% 9.2% 2.8%
Average Seed 10.4 10.3 11.7
.500 or above 99.0% 99.2% 95.7%
.500 or above in Conference 98.8% 99.0% 97.5%
Conference Champion 64.2% 65.3% 51.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.3% 2.4% 1.3%
First Round51.0% 52.2% 37.3%
Second Round20.1% 20.8% 11.1%
Sweet Sixteen7.3% 7.6% 3.3%
Elite Eight2.4% 2.5% 0.8%
Final Four0.8% 0.9% 0.2%
Championship Game0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Pepperdine (Home) - 92.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 23 - 23 - 2
Quad 311 - 314 - 6
Quad 412 - 126 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 164   @ Loyola Marymount W 66-51 71%     1 - 0 +18.0 -4.6 +22.9
  Nov 10, 2024 128   @ Northern Iowa W 80-60 63%     2 - 0 +25.5 +10.3 +15.4
  Nov 16, 2024 229   Pepperdine W 79-64 92%    
  Nov 22, 2024 233   @ Weber St. W 73-64 80%    
  Nov 28, 2024 176   Kennesaw St. W 84-74 81%    
  Nov 29, 2024 122   Kent St. W 71-65 70%    
  Nov 30, 2024 134   Towson W 70-63 74%    
  Dec 05, 2024 261   Cal St. Bakersfield W 76-59 94%    
  Dec 14, 2024 103   @ Oregon St. W 67-66 53%    
  Dec 19, 2024 151   @ Belmont W 77-72 66%    
  Dec 21, 2024 157   @ Duquesne W 71-66 68%    
  Dec 30, 2024 181   @ California Baptist W 71-64 73%    
  Jan 02, 2025 333   @ Cal Poly W 81-65 92%    
  Jan 04, 2025 155   UC Riverside W 77-66 84%    
  Jan 09, 2025 202   @ Cal St. Northridge W 78-70 76%    
  Jan 11, 2025 132   @ UC San Diego W 70-66 64%    
  Jan 16, 2025 262   Cal St. Fullerton W 76-59 93%    
  Jan 18, 2025 333   Cal Poly W 84-62 97%    
  Jan 23, 2025 155   @ UC Riverside W 74-69 68%    
  Jan 25, 2025 175   Hawaii W 74-62 86%    
  Jan 30, 2025 250   @ Long Beach St. W 80-70 81%    
  Feb 01, 2025 168   UC Davis W 77-65 85%    
  Feb 08, 2025 132   UC San Diego W 73-63 81%    
  Feb 13, 2025 117   UC Santa Barbara W 78-69 77%    
  Feb 16, 2025 175   @ Hawaii W 71-65 71%    
  Feb 20, 2025 202   Cal St. Northridge W 81-67 88%    
  Feb 22, 2025 261   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 73-62 82%    
  Feb 27, 2025 262   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 73-62 82%    
  Mar 01, 2025 250   Long Beach St. W 83-67 92%    
  Mar 06, 2025 168   @ UC Davis W 74-68 70%    
  Mar 08, 2025 117   @ UC Santa Barbara W 75-72 59%    
Projected Record 25 - 6 16 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.6 10.0 14.5 15.6 12.3 5.8 64.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.0 5.9 4.6 2.0 0.4 18.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.9 2.9 1.3 0.2 0.0 8.6 3rd
4th 0.1 0.6 1.6 1.4 0.4 0.0 4.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.2 2.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.2 3.6 6.0 8.7 11.8 14.8 16.4 15.9 12.3 5.8 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 5.8    5.8
19-1 100.0% 12.3    12.2 0.1
18-2 97.5% 15.6    14.4 1.2 0.0
17-3 88.1% 14.5    11.6 2.8 0.1
16-4 67.5% 10.0    6.4 3.2 0.4 0.0
15-5 38.6% 4.6    2.0 2.0 0.5 0.1
14-6 16.0% 1.4    0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1
13-7 1.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 64.2% 64.2 52.8 9.9 1.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 5.8% 91.9% 76.4% 15.4% 5.6 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.5 65.5%
19-1 12.3% 82.1% 69.6% 12.5% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.2 2.5 0.9 0.0 2.2 41.1%
18-2 15.9% 69.2% 61.1% 8.2% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.4 4.6 3.2 0.3 4.9 21.0%
17-3 16.4% 56.4% 53.0% 3.4% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 3.2 4.8 0.6 0.0 7.2 7.2%
16-4 14.8% 48.8% 47.6% 1.2% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.6 1.2 0.1 7.6 2.4%
15-5 11.8% 39.7% 39.3% 0.3% 12.3 0.0 0.3 3.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 7.1 0.6%
14-6 8.7% 29.5% 29.5% 0.0% 12.5 0.1 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 6.1 0.1%
13-7 6.0% 19.8% 19.8% 0.1% 12.7 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.8 0.1%
12-8 3.6% 11.7% 11.7% 12.9 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.1
11-9 2.2% 6.9% 6.9% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.1
10-10 1.3% 6.7% 6.7% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3
9-11 0.6% 1.5% 1.5% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.6
8-12 0.3% 3.0% 3.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.3
7-13 0.1% 0.1
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 52.1% 47.6% 4.5% 10.4 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.5 2.3 3.4 12.3 18.5 5.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 47.9 8.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.3% 100.0% 3.1 16.0 22.3 21.8 22.3 10.9 4.8 1.1 0.5 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 93.8% 4.7 2.1 4.2 12.5 31.3 20.8 12.5 2.1 2.1 4.2 2.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 88.1% 5.6 2.4 7.1 19.0 21.4 11.9 14.3 4.8 4.8 2.4