Central Florida
Big 12
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.2#81
Expected Predictive Rating+11.0#57
Pace70.8#125
Improvement-0.9#244

Offense
Total Offense+2.9#99
First Shot-2.3#239
After Offensive Rebound+5.2#4
Layup/Dunks-2.0#250
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#266
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#232
Freethrows+2.9#35
Improvement+1.1#102

Defense
Total Defense+4.3#64
First Shot+2.5#104
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#54
Layups/Dunks+0.9#136
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#94
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#219
Freethrows+1.2#93
Improvement-2.0#325
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.6% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 1.0% 3.3% 0.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.3% 30.9% 12.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 15.1% 30.6% 12.3%
Average Seed 9.3 8.9 9.4
.500 or above 55.8% 76.6% 52.0%
.500 or above in Conference 16.3% 33.3% 13.2%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 16.6% 7.0% 18.3%
First Four4.4% 6.7% 4.0%
First Round12.8% 27.4% 10.2%
Second Round5.3% 11.6% 4.1%
Sweet Sixteen1.1% 2.6% 0.9%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.9% 0.3%
Final Four0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas Tech (Away) - 15.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 81 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 12
Quad 23 - 36 - 15
Quad 35 - 111 - 16
Quad 45 - 016 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 25   Texas A&M W 64-61 36%     1 - 0 +14.1 +1.2 +13.0
  Nov 08, 2024 160   Purdue Fort Wayne W 75-68 83%     2 - 0 +3.9 -4.4 +8.1
  Nov 12, 2024 88   Florida Atlantic W 100-94 65%     3 - 0 +9.3 +13.9 -5.3
  Nov 19, 2024 328   Tennessee Tech W 80-69 96%     4 - 0 -1.5 +2.8 -3.9
  Nov 22, 2024 34   Wisconsin L 70-86 31%     4 - 1 -3.7 -5.9 +3.8
  Nov 24, 2024 56   LSU L 102-109 3OT 42%     4 - 2 +2.4 +5.9 -1.5
  Nov 27, 2024 132   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 84-76 79%     5 - 2 +6.6 +6.2 +0.2
  Dec 01, 2024 158   California Baptist W 74-59 83%     6 - 2 +12.0 -2.5 +14.6
  Dec 08, 2024 285   Tarleton St. W 66-51 93%     7 - 2 +5.3 -3.6 +10.0
  Dec 14, 2024 239   Tulsa W 88-75 86%     8 - 2 +8.6 +15.4 -6.5
  Dec 21, 2024 211   Jacksonville W 86-66 88%     9 - 2 +14.5 +10.5 +3.4
  Dec 31, 2024 18   @ Texas Tech L 67-78 15%    
  Jan 05, 2025 8   Kansas L 69-77 24%    
  Jan 08, 2025 76   Colorado W 73-70 60%    
  Jan 11, 2025 11   @ Arizona L 71-83 14%    
  Jan 14, 2025 59   @ Arizona St. L 71-76 32%    
  Jan 18, 2025 5   Houston L 62-71 19%    
  Jan 21, 2025 6   @ Iowa St. L 68-83 8%    
  Jan 25, 2025 66   TCU W 71-69 58%    
  Jan 28, 2025 8   @ Kansas L 66-80 11%    
  Feb 01, 2025 42   BYU L 75-76 46%    
  Feb 05, 2025 26   Cincinnati L 68-72 36%    
  Feb 08, 2025 12   @ Baylor L 68-80 14%    
  Feb 11, 2025 6   Iowa St. L 71-80 20%    
  Feb 15, 2025 76   @ Colorado L 70-73 38%    
  Feb 19, 2025 96   @ Oklahoma St. L 75-76 46%    
  Feb 23, 2025 65   Utah W 77-75 58%    
  Feb 26, 2025 84   Kansas St. W 74-71 62%    
  Mar 01, 2025 66   @ TCU L 68-72 37%    
  Mar 05, 2025 96   Oklahoma St. W 78-73 67%    
  Mar 08, 2025 39   @ West Virginia L 67-74 25%    
Projected Record 16 - 15 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.2 4th
5th 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.0 1.6 0.3 4.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.2 2.8 0.8 0.0 6.1 8th
9th 0.1 1.9 3.9 1.6 0.1 7.6 9th
10th 0.0 1.5 4.5 2.9 0.4 9.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.8 4.4 4.4 0.7 0.0 10.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 3.7 5.6 1.7 0.1 11.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 2.6 5.8 2.9 0.3 11.9 13th
14th 0.2 2.0 5.1 3.6 0.6 0.0 11.5 14th
15th 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.4 3.6 0.8 0.1 11.2 15th
16th 0.2 0.8 2.2 3.4 2.4 0.6 0.1 9.6 16th
Total 0.2 0.8 2.5 5.5 9.1 12.4 14.8 15.2 13.0 10.2 7.4 4.5 2.6 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 60.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 56.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 21.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 3.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.1% 100.0% 10.0% 90.0% 4.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 0.2% 100.0% 1.3% 98.7% 5.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 0.5% 100.0% 5.6% 94.4% 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 1.2% 96.4% 2.4% 94.0% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 96.3%
12-8 2.6% 91.0% 1.4% 89.6% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.2 90.9%
11-9 4.5% 76.0% 0.6% 75.4% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.0 0.4 1.1 75.9%
10-10 7.4% 58.0% 0.4% 57.6% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.5 1.3 0.0 3.1 57.8%
9-11 10.2% 25.0% 0.3% 24.7% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.6 0.1 7.6 24.7%
8-12 13.0% 6.1% 0.2% 5.9% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 12.2 5.9%
7-13 15.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.6% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 15.1 0.6%
6-14 14.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 11.3 0.0 0.0 14.8 0.0%
5-15 12.4% 12.4
4-16 9.1% 9.1
3-17 5.5% 5.5
2-18 2.5% 2.5
1-19 0.8% 0.8
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 15.3% 0.2% 15.1% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.1 3.2 3.6 4.0 0.3 84.7 15.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%