Colorado
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.0#70
Expected Predictive Rating+7.2#84
Pace68.9#192
Improvement-0.6#251

Offense
Total Offense+3.4#92
First Shot+2.9#92
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#148
Layup/Dunks+3.6#69
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#312
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#141
Freethrows+1.0#138
Improvement+1.5#28

Defense
Total Defense+4.6#55
First Shot+5.2#47
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#223
Layups/Dunks+0.9#144
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#155
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#66
Freethrows+0.0#187
Improvement-2.0#350
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.7% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 2.0% 3.7% 1.0%
Top 6 Seed 5.9% 10.3% 3.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.5% 37.1% 19.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 25.1% 36.5% 18.8%
Average Seed 8.2 7.9 8.5
.500 or above 56.6% 72.9% 47.6%
.500 or above in Conference 23.8% 31.2% 19.8%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.9% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 16.6% 11.6% 19.3%
First Four4.2% 5.1% 3.8%
First Round23.3% 34.5% 17.2%
Second Round11.9% 18.0% 8.5%
Sweet Sixteen3.9% 6.1% 2.7%
Elite Eight1.3% 2.1% 0.9%
Final Four0.5% 0.8% 0.3%
Championship Game0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Michigan St. (Neutral) - 35.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 11
Quad 23 - 37 - 14
Quad 33 - 19 - 14
Quad 46 - 016 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 245   Eastern Washington W 76-56 91%     1 - 0 +12.8 -3.6 +16.3
  Nov 08, 2024 173   Northern Colorado W 90-88 2OT 86%     2 - 0 -1.8 -3.6 +1.4
  Nov 13, 2024 270   Cal St. Fullerton W 83-53 93%     3 - 0 +21.4 +10.9 +11.8
  Nov 17, 2024 243   Harvard W 88-66 91%     4 - 0 +14.9 +13.6 +1.5
  Nov 25, 2024 35   Michigan St. L 69-73 36%    
  Dec 02, 2024 291   Pacific W 80-62 95%    
  Dec 07, 2024 102   Colorado St. W 72-66 72%    
  Dec 13, 2024 183   South Dakota St. W 78-66 86%    
  Dec 21, 2024 335   Bellarmine W 81-59 97%    
  Dec 30, 2024 12   Iowa St. L 66-71 31%    
  Jan 04, 2025 53   @ Arizona St. L 70-74 35%    
  Jan 08, 2025 71   @ Central Florida L 70-73 39%    
  Jan 12, 2025 76   West Virginia W 74-70 62%    
  Jan 15, 2025 18   Cincinnati L 70-73 39%    
  Jan 18, 2025 86   @ Oklahoma St. L 73-75 45%    
  Jan 21, 2025 34   BYU L 74-75 47%    
  Jan 25, 2025 13   @ Arizona L 72-82 18%    
  Jan 28, 2025 53   Arizona St. W 73-71 56%    
  Feb 02, 2025 60   @ TCU L 71-75 37%    
  Feb 05, 2025 54   @ Utah L 72-76 36%    
  Feb 08, 2025 4   Houston L 61-70 23%    
  Feb 11, 2025 6   @ Kansas L 66-80 12%    
  Feb 15, 2025 71   Central Florida W 73-70 60%    
  Feb 18, 2025 12   @ Iowa St. L 63-74 17%    
  Feb 22, 2025 11   Baylor L 68-74 31%    
  Feb 24, 2025 6   Kansas L 69-77 25%    
  Mar 02, 2025 66   @ Kansas St. L 69-72 39%    
  Mar 05, 2025 14   @ Texas Tech L 66-76 19%    
  Mar 08, 2025 60   TCU W 74-72 58%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.5 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.1 2.2 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 2.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 4.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.3 2.1 0.4 0.0 5.3 7th
8th 0.3 2.2 3.1 0.9 0.1 6.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.7 3.7 1.7 0.1 7.5 9th
10th 0.1 1.2 4.0 2.6 0.4 0.0 8.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 3.5 3.8 0.8 0.0 8.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 2.9 4.6 1.6 0.1 9.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.8 2.5 0.2 10.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.4 2.1 4.5 3.1 0.5 0.0 10.6 14th
15th 0.1 0.5 2.3 4.1 3.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 10.7 15th
16th 0.4 1.3 2.7 3.1 2.0 0.5 0.0 10.1 16th
Total 0.4 1.4 3.2 5.7 8.5 10.9 12.1 12.4 11.6 9.9 8.3 6.0 4.2 2.5 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 93.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 70.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 42.4% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 19.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 3.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 100.0% 8.0% 92.0% 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.4% 100.0% 10.8% 89.2% 3.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 100.0%
15-5 0.9% 100.0% 5.7% 94.3% 4.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 1.5% 99.5% 7.5% 91.9% 5.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.4%
13-7 2.5% 99.3% 3.6% 95.7% 6.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.3%
12-8 4.2% 96.2% 2.6% 93.7% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.2 96.1%
11-9 6.0% 89.0% 1.0% 88.0% 8.4 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.7 88.9%
10-10 8.3% 68.2% 0.8% 67.5% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.6 1.1 0.1 2.6 68.0%
9-11 9.9% 36.0% 0.5% 35.5% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.7 0.2 0.0 6.3 35.7%
8-12 11.6% 11.6% 0.2% 11.4% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 10.2 11.4%
7-13 12.4% 1.9% 0.1% 1.8% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 12.1 1.8%
6-14 12.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 11.2 0.0 0.0 12.1 0.1%
5-15 10.9% 10.9
4-16 8.5% 8.5
3-17 5.7% 5.7
2-18 3.2% 3.2
1-19 1.4% 1.4
0-20 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 25.5% 0.6% 24.9% 8.2 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.7 2.3 3.1 3.7 4.1 3.9 4.2 0.6 0.0 74.5 25.1%