Florida Atlantic
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.6#75
Expected Predictive Rating+6.0#91
Pace74.8#56
Improvement-1.5#326

Offense
Total Offense+6.8#33
First Shot+9.5#11
After Offensive Rebound-2.7#315
Layup/Dunks-0.3#197
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#101
3 Pt Jumpshots+9.1#7
Freethrows-0.6#214
Improvement+1.0#55

Defense
Total Defense+0.8#143
First Shot-0.7#201
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#95
Layups/Dunks+1.5#131
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#230
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#258
Freethrows+0.3#168
Improvement-2.5#358
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.8% 1.2% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 1.9% 2.9% 0.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.7% 25.5% 15.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 7.0% 10.1% 3.7%
Average Seed 10.1 9.8 10.7
.500 or above 86.1% 92.3% 78.8%
.500 or above in Conference 83.3% 87.3% 78.7%
Conference Champion 17.0% 20.7% 12.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.5% 1.1%
First Four2.5% 3.3% 1.6%
First Round19.5% 23.9% 14.3%
Second Round7.9% 10.1% 5.2%
Sweet Sixteen2.5% 3.4% 1.5%
Elite Eight0.8% 1.1% 0.5%
Final Four0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oklahoma St. (Neutral) - 54.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 24 - 45 - 8
Quad 38 - 313 - 11
Quad 46 - 119 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 180   Indiana St. W 97-64 79%     1 - 0 +32.0 +7.9 +19.1
  Nov 12, 2024 71   @ Central Florida L 94-100 37%     1 - 1 +5.0 +15.7 -10.0
  Nov 15, 2024 116   @ College of Charleston L 116-119 2OT 55%     1 - 2 +3.3 +16.6 -12.5
  Nov 16, 2024 81   Liberty W 77-74 OT 52%     2 - 2 +10.1 +6.3 +3.6
  Nov 21, 2024 86   Oklahoma St. W 82-81 54%    
  Nov 30, 2024 216   Florida Gulf Coast W 79-66 89%    
  Dec 04, 2024 273   @ Florida International W 86-76 83%    
  Dec 10, 2024 226   Jacksonville W 81-67 90%    
  Dec 14, 2024 166   Texas St. W 79-68 84%    
  Dec 21, 2024 35   @ Michigan St. L 74-81 25%    
  Jan 02, 2025 33   Memphis L 82-84 45%    
  Jan 05, 2025 145   @ East Carolina W 76-72 63%    
  Jan 08, 2025 142   @ Charlotte W 73-70 61%    
  Jan 12, 2025 103   UAB W 83-77 70%    
  Jan 15, 2025 146   @ Tulane W 82-78 63%    
  Jan 19, 2025 171   Rice W 81-70 84%    
  Jan 26, 2025 83   @ North Texas L 68-70 42%    
  Jan 29, 2025 278   Texas San Antonio W 91-74 93%    
  Feb 02, 2025 121   South Florida W 81-73 75%    
  Feb 08, 2025 147   @ Tulsa W 85-81 63%    
  Feb 10, 2025 142   Charlotte W 76-67 79%    
  Feb 16, 2025 113   @ Temple W 78-77 53%    
  Feb 20, 2025 94   Wichita St. W 81-76 67%    
  Feb 23, 2025 33   @ Memphis L 79-87 26%    
  Feb 27, 2025 83   North Texas W 71-67 63%    
  Mar 02, 2025 121   @ South Florida W 78-76 56%    
  Mar 06, 2025 103   @ UAB L 79-80 50%    
  Mar 09, 2025 145   East Carolina W 79-69 79%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.2 5.0 3.7 1.8 0.4 17.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.2 6.3 4.9 2.1 0.3 0.0 17.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.4 6.3 3.9 0.8 0.1 14.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.7 5.6 3.2 0.5 0.0 12.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.5 4.9 3.1 0.4 0.0 10.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.4 3.2 0.5 0.0 7.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.3 3.0 0.7 0.0 6.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 2.7 1.0 0.1 4.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 1.8 1.2 0.1 3.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.1 0.1 2.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.9 4.4 7.0 9.2 12.0 13.2 13.3 12.4 9.9 7.2 3.9 1.8 0.4 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 99.9% 1.8    1.7 0.1
16-2 92.9% 3.7    3.1 0.6 0.0
15-3 69.5% 5.0    3.2 1.6 0.2 0.0
14-4 42.2% 4.2    1.7 1.9 0.6 0.1
13-5 13.7% 1.7    0.3 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 17.0% 17.0 10.4 5.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 94.7% 46.7% 48.0% 4.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 90.0%
17-1 1.8% 91.2% 45.9% 45.2% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 83.7%
16-2 3.9% 75.5% 39.6% 35.9% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.0 1.0 59.5%
15-3 7.2% 55.7% 31.3% 24.4% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.4 0.2 0.0 3.2 35.5%
14-4 9.9% 36.5% 25.1% 11.4% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 0.5 0.0 6.3 15.2%
13-5 12.4% 23.9% 20.0% 3.9% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.6 0.9 0.0 0.0 9.5 4.9%
12-6 13.3% 16.8% 15.5% 1.3% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 11.1 1.5%
11-7 13.2% 10.9% 10.5% 0.4% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 11.8 0.4%
10-8 12.0% 6.3% 6.2% 0.1% 11.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 11.3 0.1%
9-9 9.2% 4.0% 4.0% 12.1 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 8.9
8-10 7.0% 2.7% 2.7% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.8
7-11 4.4% 1.9% 1.9% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.3
6-12 2.9% 1.2% 1.2% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.8
5-13 1.4% 0.6% 0.6% 15.7 0.0 0.0 1.3
4-14 0.7% 0.7
3-15 0.3% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 20.7% 14.7% 6.0% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.7 2.9 7.3 4.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 79.3 7.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.3 16.7 54.2 20.8 4.2 4.2