Florida Atlantic
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.5#85
Expected Predictive Rating+3.6#112
Pace76.9#25
Improvement-0.8#243

Offense
Total Offense+6.1#43
First Shot+7.0#27
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#244
Layup/Dunks+2.8#87
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#232
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#74
Freethrows+1.6#89
Improvement+0.5#135

Defense
Total Defense+0.4#152
First Shot+0.2#165
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#162
Layups/Dunks+5.6#34
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#238
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.7#335
Freethrows-0.2#202
Improvement-1.4#291
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.5% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.6% 19.7% 13.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 2.3% 0.3%
Average Seed 11.6 10.9 11.7
.500 or above 88.7% 96.4% 87.5%
.500 or above in Conference 90.1% 94.3% 89.4%
Conference Champion 15.2% 20.5% 14.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.2% 0.4%
First Four0.3% 1.1% 0.2%
First Round14.4% 19.2% 13.7%
Second Round3.6% 5.9% 3.2%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.8% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Michigan St. (Away) - 13.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 23 - 44 - 7
Quad 39 - 412 - 11
Quad 47 - 219 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 150   Indiana St. W 97-64 73%     1 - 0 +33.3 +6.4 +21.8
  Nov 12, 2024 84   @ Central Florida L 94-100 38%     1 - 1 +3.7 +15.4 -10.9
  Nov 15, 2024 121   @ College of Charleston L 116-119 2OT 54%     1 - 2 +2.5 +17.2 -13.9
  Nov 16, 2024 81   Liberty W 77-74 OT 48%     2 - 2 +10.0 +5.5 +4.4
  Nov 21, 2024 97   Oklahoma St. W 86-78 54%     3 - 2 +13.6 +1.9 +10.3
  Nov 22, 2024 67   Drake L 63-75 42%     3 - 3 -3.5 -0.4 -3.8
  Nov 24, 2024 116   Seton Hall L 61-63 64%     3 - 4 +0.8 -1.8 +2.5
  Nov 30, 2024 192   Florida Gulf Coast L 78-80 85%     3 - 5 -6.3 +9.6 -16.1
  Dec 04, 2024 248   @ Florida International W 88-77 78%     4 - 5 +9.2 +13.3 -4.5
  Dec 10, 2024 205   Jacksonville W 85-63 86%     5 - 5 +17.0 +6.2 +9.2
  Dec 14, 2024 139   Texas St. W 89-80 79%     6 - 5 +7.1 +14.7 -7.5
  Dec 21, 2024 15   @ Michigan St. L 72-84 14%    
  Jan 02, 2025 37   Memphis L 83-86 40%    
  Jan 05, 2025 159   @ East Carolina W 77-73 63%    
  Jan 08, 2025 193   @ Charlotte W 78-73 67%    
  Jan 12, 2025 129   UAB W 89-81 76%    
  Jan 15, 2025 203   @ Tulane W 82-77 70%    
  Jan 19, 2025 196   Rice W 82-71 84%    
  Jan 26, 2025 80   @ North Texas L 68-71 37%    
  Jan 29, 2025 230   Texas San Antonio W 91-78 88%    
  Feb 02, 2025 180   South Florida W 86-75 83%    
  Feb 08, 2025 252   @ Tulsa W 84-76 78%    
  Feb 10, 2025 193   Charlotte W 81-70 83%    
  Feb 16, 2025 119   @ Temple W 79-78 53%    
  Feb 20, 2025 110   Wichita St. W 84-78 70%    
  Feb 23, 2025 37   @ Memphis L 80-89 22%    
  Feb 27, 2025 80   North Texas W 71-68 59%    
  Mar 02, 2025 180   @ South Florida W 83-78 66%    
  Mar 06, 2025 129   @ UAB W 86-84 56%    
  Mar 09, 2025 159   East Carolina W 80-70 80%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.7 4.9 3.5 1.3 0.2 15.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.9 7.9 7.0 2.8 0.5 22.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 4.6 8.4 5.2 1.3 0.1 20.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 3.4 6.1 3.2 0.6 0.0 13.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 4.5 2.5 0.3 0.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.4 2.3 0.3 0.0 6.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.9 2.0 0.4 0.0 4.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 1.6 0.5 0.0 3.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.6 0.0 2.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.0 1.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.7 5.0 8.1 11.4 14.1 16.1 15.0 12.0 7.8 3.9 1.3 0.2 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.3    1.3 0.1
16-2 88.5% 3.5    2.8 0.7 0.0
15-3 63.0% 4.9    2.8 1.9 0.2
14-4 30.9% 3.7    1.5 1.7 0.5 0.0
13-5 9.1% 1.4    0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.3% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.2% 15.2 8.8 5.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 70.0% 40.9% 29.1% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 49.2%
17-1 1.3% 53.4% 38.3% 15.1% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.6 24.4%
16-2 3.9% 37.2% 33.5% 3.7% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.3 2.5 5.6%
15-3 7.8% 27.3% 26.4% 0.9% 11.3 0.0 0.1 1.2 0.8 0.0 5.7 1.3%
14-4 12.0% 21.6% 21.5% 0.2% 11.6 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.5 0.0 9.4 0.2%
13-5 15.0% 17.9% 17.8% 0.0% 11.8 0.0 0.7 1.8 0.1 12.3 0.0%
12-6 16.1% 13.8% 13.8% 0.0% 12.0 0.3 1.6 0.3 0.0 13.9 0.0%
11-7 14.1% 9.2% 9.2% 12.1 0.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 12.9
10-8 11.4% 7.0% 7.0% 12.2 0.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 10.6
9-9 8.1% 4.0% 4.0% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.7
8-10 5.0% 2.9% 2.9% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.8
7-11 2.7% 2.4% 2.4% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7
6-12 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 1.3
5-13 0.6% 1.0% 1.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.6
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 14.6% 14.1% 0.5% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 4.5 7.7 1.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 85.4 0.6%