LSU
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.7#48
Expected Predictive Rating+16.9#13
Pace73.0#80
Improvement-1.9#337

Offense
Total Offense+5.1#51
First Shot+4.0#71
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#118
Layup/Dunks+2.8#90
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#127
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#262
Freethrows+2.8#55
Improvement-0.9#306

Defense
Total Defense+4.6#58
First Shot+4.0#68
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#144
Layups/Dunks+0.6#156
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#352
3 Pt Jumpshots+9.6#10
Freethrows-1.8#276
Improvement-1.0#302
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.4% 0.8% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 1.2% 2.4% 0.5%
Top 4 Seed 5.8% 10.2% 3.4%
Top 6 Seed 14.5% 23.2% 9.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 44.3% 58.5% 36.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 43.5% 57.6% 35.7%
Average Seed 7.6 7.2 8.0
.500 or above 80.4% 91.7% 74.1%
.500 or above in Conference 34.0% 43.0% 29.0%
Conference Champion 1.3% 2.1% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 11.8% 8.0% 13.9%
First Four5.8% 6.2% 5.5%
First Round41.3% 55.2% 33.5%
Second Round23.1% 32.9% 17.6%
Sweet Sixteen8.3% 12.7% 5.9%
Elite Eight3.2% 5.0% 2.2%
Final Four1.2% 1.9% 0.8%
Championship Game0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.2% 0.1%

Next Game: Pittsburgh (Neutral) - 35.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 10
Quad 24 - 39 - 12
Quad 32 - 011 - 13
Quad 48 - 018 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 321   Louisiana Monroe W 95-60 97%     1 - 0 +23.0 +13.5 +7.8
  Nov 10, 2024 282   Alabama St. W 74-61 95%     2 - 0 +3.8 -3.8 +7.2
  Nov 14, 2024 67   @ Kansas St. W 76-65 44%     3 - 0 +22.4 +11.2 +11.3
  Nov 19, 2024 310   Charleston Southern W 77-68 96%     4 - 0 -2.4 +1.7 -3.8
  Nov 22, 2024 23   Pittsburgh L 73-77 36%    
  Nov 29, 2024 312   Northwestern St. W 84-63 98%    
  Dec 03, 2024 81   Florida St. W 79-73 70%    
  Dec 08, 2024 218   Florida Gulf Coast W 77-62 92%    
  Dec 14, 2024 66   SMU W 80-79 55%    
  Dec 17, 2024 327   Stetson W 85-63 98%    
  Dec 22, 2024 357   New Orleans W 91-64 99%    
  Dec 29, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 86-53 99.9%   
  Jan 04, 2025 82   Vanderbilt W 81-75 70%    
  Jan 07, 2025 62   @ Missouri L 74-76 43%    
  Jan 11, 2025 47   @ Mississippi L 73-76 39%    
  Jan 14, 2025 25   Arkansas L 76-77 47%    
  Jan 18, 2025 26   @ Texas A&M L 69-76 28%    
  Jan 25, 2025 7   @ Alabama L 77-88 16%    
  Jan 29, 2025 3   Auburn L 75-82 28%    
  Feb 01, 2025 29   Texas L 74-75 50%    
  Feb 05, 2025 54   @ Georgia L 74-77 41%    
  Feb 08, 2025 47   Mississippi W 76-73 60%    
  Feb 12, 2025 25   @ Arkansas L 73-80 28%    
  Feb 15, 2025 51   @ Oklahoma L 72-75 41%    
  Feb 18, 2025 72   South Carolina W 76-71 66%    
  Feb 22, 2025 19   Florida L 81-82 45%    
  Feb 25, 2025 9   Tennessee L 72-77 34%    
  Mar 01, 2025 28   @ Mississippi St. L 73-79 30%    
  Mar 04, 2025 10   @ Kentucky L 77-87 19%    
  Mar 08, 2025 26   Texas A&M L 72-73 48%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.5 0.3 0.0 3.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 2.2 0.5 0.0 4.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 3.2 1.2 0.1 5.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.2 2.4 0.3 0.0 6.3 7th
8th 0.2 2.3 3.7 0.8 0.0 6.9 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 4.3 2.3 0.1 0.0 7.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 3.6 3.9 0.4 0.0 8.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 2.3 4.8 1.3 0.0 8.6 11th
12th 0.0 1.2 4.5 2.9 0.2 0.0 8.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.8 3.7 3.8 0.7 0.0 8.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.8 4.0 1.3 0.0 8.8 14th
15th 0.1 0.7 2.4 3.3 1.6 0.2 8.2 15th
16th 0.2 0.9 2.0 2.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 6.5 16th
Total 0.2 0.9 2.8 5.1 8.1 10.7 12.5 13.2 12.4 10.9 8.7 6.1 4.1 2.3 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 85.1% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
15-3 71.4% 0.4    0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-4 34.5% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 10.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.3% 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.2% 100.0% 20.9% 79.1% 1.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 0.6% 100.0% 12.3% 87.7% 2.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 1.2% 100.0% 10.7% 89.3% 3.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 2.3% 99.9% 10.2% 89.7% 4.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-6 4.1% 99.7% 5.8% 93.9% 5.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.7%
11-7 6.1% 99.3% 3.7% 95.6% 6.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 1.6 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.2%
10-8 8.7% 95.0% 1.6% 93.4% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.0 1.8 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.4 94.9%
9-9 10.9% 85.9% 0.9% 84.9% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.2 2.3 1.6 0.9 0.0 1.5 85.7%
8-10 12.4% 60.4% 0.8% 59.7% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.6 2.2 2.2 0.2 4.9 60.1%
7-11 13.2% 28.4% 0.2% 28.2% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.9 0.3 0.0 9.4 28.3%
6-12 12.5% 7.4% 0.2% 7.3% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 11.6 7.3%
5-13 10.7% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 10.6 1.0%
4-14 8.1% 8.1
3-15 5.1% 5.1
2-16 2.8% 2.8
1-17 0.9% 0.9
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 44.3% 1.3% 42.9% 7.6 0.4 0.8 1.9 2.7 3.7 5.0 5.6 6.0 6.0 5.5 5.9 0.7 0.0 55.7 43.5%