Maryland
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.8#30
Expected Predictive Rating+3.4#132
Pace69.9#163
Improvement+0.7#104

Offense
Total Offense+4.8#59
First Shot+0.5#158
After Offensive Rebound+4.3#20
Layup/Dunks+4.8#47
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#321
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#271
Freethrows+1.3#119
Improvement+1.2#38

Defense
Total Defense+8.0#9
First Shot+4.0#69
After Offensive Rebounds+4.1#15
Layups/Dunks+0.2#165
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#210
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#88
Freethrows+1.4#106
Improvement-0.5#258
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
#1 Seed 1.4% 1.8% 0.4%
Top 2 Seed 3.6% 4.7% 1.4%
Top 4 Seed 12.4% 15.3% 6.2%
Top 6 Seed 25.7% 30.7% 15.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 63.7% 69.8% 51.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 60.7% 67.0% 48.2%
Average Seed 6.9 6.7 7.6
.500 or above 93.4% 96.2% 87.5%
.500 or above in Conference 71.1% 74.9% 63.3%
Conference Champion 9.8% 11.4% 6.5%
Last Place in Conference 1.9% 1.4% 2.7%
First Four3.8% 3.6% 4.2%
First Round61.9% 68.1% 49.0%
Second Round39.9% 45.1% 29.1%
Sweet Sixteen17.3% 20.2% 11.3%
Elite Eight7.5% 8.9% 4.7%
Final Four3.1% 3.7% 1.7%
Championship Game1.4% 1.7% 0.7%
National Champion0.6% 0.7% 0.3%

Next Game: Villanova (Neutral) - 67.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 8
Quad 25 - 311 - 11
Quad 33 - 014 - 11
Quad 48 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 329   Manhattan W 79-49 98%     1 - 0 +17.5 -1.9 +18.7
  Nov 08, 2024 278   Mount St. Mary's W 86-52 97%     2 - 0 +24.9 +10.2 +14.5
  Nov 11, 2024 356   Florida A&M W 84-53 99%     3 - 0 +14.0 +2.4 +10.9
  Nov 15, 2024 15   Marquette L 74-78 54%     3 - 1 +7.7 +10.1 -2.5
  Nov 19, 2024 351   Canisius W 108-37 99%     4 - 1 +55.0 +17.1 +32.0
  Nov 24, 2024 69   Villanova W 72-67 67%    
  Nov 27, 2024 235   Bucknell W 79-60 97%    
  Dec 01, 2024 349   Alcorn St. W 83-54 99.6%   
  Dec 04, 2024 21   Ohio St. W 70-68 57%    
  Dec 08, 2024 18   @ Purdue L 70-74 34%    
  Dec 17, 2024 342   St. Francis (PA) W 84-56 99%    
  Dec 21, 2024 93   Syracuse W 79-72 74%    
  Dec 28, 2024 354   Maryland Eastern Shore W 84-54 99.6%   
  Jan 02, 2025 83   @ Washington W 74-71 60%    
  Jan 05, 2025 39   @ Oregon L 69-71 44%    
  Jan 10, 2025 27   UCLA W 68-65 60%    
  Jan 13, 2025 90   Minnesota W 69-59 81%    
  Jan 16, 2025 74   @ Northwestern W 67-65 57%    
  Jan 19, 2025 65   Nebraska W 75-68 74%    
  Jan 23, 2025 31   @ Illinois L 75-78 40%    
  Jan 26, 2025 22   @ Indiana L 71-75 36%    
  Jan 29, 2025 37   Wisconsin W 74-70 65%    
  Feb 06, 2025 21   @ Ohio St. L 67-71 36%    
  Feb 09, 2025 44   Rutgers W 72-67 68%    
  Feb 13, 2025 65   @ Nebraska W 72-71 55%    
  Feb 16, 2025 41   Iowa W 79-75 65%    
  Feb 20, 2025 78   USC W 78-69 77%    
  Feb 26, 2025 35   Michigan St. W 72-68 63%    
  Mar 01, 2025 32   @ Penn St. L 74-77 41%    
  Mar 05, 2025 24   @ Michigan L 70-74 37%    
  Mar 08, 2025 74   Northwestern W 70-62 75%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 2.3 2.8 2.3 1.1 0.3 0.1 9.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 3.0 3.0 1.4 0.4 0.0 8.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.1 3.5 1.3 0.2 0.0 8.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.3 4.0 1.6 0.2 0.0 8.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 4.0 2.5 0.3 0.0 7.9 5th
6th 0.3 3.2 3.5 0.6 0.0 7.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 3.9 1.5 0.1 6.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 3.0 2.8 0.4 0.0 6.5 8th
9th 0.0 1.3 3.6 0.9 0.0 5.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.9 2.1 0.1 5.4 10th
11th 0.1 1.3 3.1 0.6 0.0 5.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 2.5 1.5 0.1 4.7 12th
13th 0.2 1.4 2.1 0.4 0.0 4.1 13th
14th 0.1 0.6 1.8 1.0 0.0 3.5 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.1 0.2 2.9 15th
16th 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.2 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.5 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.9 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 3.4 5.3 7.4 9.5 10.8 12.2 12.3 11.3 9.2 6.7 4.3 2.6 1.1 0.3 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
18-2 97.8% 1.1    1.0 0.1
17-3 85.9% 2.3    1.7 0.5 0.0 0.0
16-4 63.4% 2.8    1.6 1.0 0.2 0.0
15-5 34.5% 2.3    0.7 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 9.2% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 9.8% 9.8 5.5 2.9 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 45.8% 54.2% 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.3% 100.0% 39.5% 60.5% 1.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.1% 100.0% 33.9% 66.1% 1.9 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.6% 100.0% 27.9% 72.1% 2.6 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 4.3% 99.9% 21.4% 78.4% 3.6 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
15-5 6.7% 99.9% 18.8% 81.1% 4.8 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.5 1.8 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-6 9.2% 99.0% 15.3% 83.7% 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.0 2.2 2.0 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.8%
13-7 11.3% 96.7% 10.7% 86.0% 7.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.9 3.0 2.6 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.4 96.3%
12-8 12.3% 88.9% 5.7% 83.2% 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.9 3.0 2.4 1.5 0.4 0.0 1.4 88.2%
11-9 12.2% 73.5% 2.9% 70.6% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 2.4 2.2 1.1 0.0 3.2 72.7%
10-10 10.8% 53.1% 2.2% 50.9% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.9 1.5 0.1 5.1 52.1%
9-11 9.5% 23.8% 1.1% 22.7% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 0.2 7.3 22.9%
8-12 7.4% 5.4% 0.5% 4.9% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 7.0 4.9%
7-13 5.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.7% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.2 0.7%
6-14 3.4% 3.4
5-15 1.8% 1.8
4-16 0.9% 0.9
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 63.7% 7.5% 56.1% 6.9 1.4 2.3 3.9 4.8 6.3 7.0 8.8 9.6 8.0 6.9 4.3 0.3 0.0 36.3 60.7%