Akron
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +8.9 #64
Expected Predictive Rating +6.2 #83
Pace 76.4 #34
Improvement -2.9 #320

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #29 A A+ B- D B
Defense #135 C D+ B C+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #121 1.34 #27 +5.0 #41
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #311 0.82 #91 -1.9 #272
Three Pointers 45% #106 1.11 #61 +4.4 #49
1st FG Attempt 1.16 #19 +7.4 #21
Freethrows 14.6 #313 74% #153 10.7 #286
Second Chance 36.0% #41 1.39 #2 0.50 #3
Turnovers 15.5% #111
Total Offense +8.1 #29

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #196 1.14 #153 +0.5 #161
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #277 0.73 #146 +1.4 #88
Three Pointers 45% #85 1.01 #174 -1.7 #253
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #168 +0.3 #167
Freethrows 16.2 #128 73% #207 11.8 #225
Second Chance 35.2% #323 1.02 #159 0.36 #271
Turnovers 18.8% #65
Total Defense +0.8 #135

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.0% #63 0.8% #244
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 12.3% #28 -1.2% #160
Possession Length 15.4 #35 17.7 #250
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.24 #39 0.17 #179
Improvement -4.7 #362 +1.7 #74

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 45.8% 46.0% 37.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.8 11.7 12.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.4%
Conference Champion 68.4% 69.0% 43.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round45.8% 46.0% 37.2%
Second Round11.4% 11.5% 8.2%
Sweet Sixteen2.8% 2.8% 1.1%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Ball St. (Home) - 97.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 32 - 5
Quad 38 - 210 - 6
Quad 415 - 025 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 204 James Madison W 85 - 71 90%  +0  1 - 0 +9 +5 F A+ B +3 C B+ A+
 Sat, Nov 8 242 Princeton W 104 - 69 93%  +20  2 - 0 +27 +19 A+ A+ A+ +5 C- A+ B-
 Sun, Nov 16 4 @Purdue L 79 - 97 7%  -12  2 - 1 +8 +14 C+ A+ B+ -5 B- F A+
 Fri, Nov 21 214 Iona W 96 - 75 86%  +18  3 - 1 +18 +14 A+ A+ C+ +2 B+ F A+
 Sun, Nov 23 263 Evansville W 97 - 59 91%  +13  4 - 1 +32 +25 A+ A+ C+ +7 B- F A+
 Mon, Nov 24 80 Yale L 94 - 97 56%  -6  4 - 2 +4 +26 A+ A+ D+ -22 F C D+
 Sat, Nov 29 226 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 105 - 81 92%  +13  5 - 2 +17 +17 A+ B F -2 B+ F B
 Wed, Dec 3 314 Bucknell W 97 - 77 96%  +16  6 - 2 +8 +23 A A A+ -15 F C+ F
 Sat, Dec 6 176 @Tulane W 88 - 71 75%  +8  7 - 2 +19 +14 A A+ F +4 A+ C- F
 Sat, Dec 13 91 Murray St. L 100 - 115 61%  -9  7 - 3 -9 +13 A+ C- A+ -19 F F A+
 Fri, Dec 19 197 Eastern Michigan W 93 - 72 90%  +15  8 - 3 1 - 0 +16 +18 A A+ A+ -2 A+ D- D-
 Sat, Jan 3 93 @Miami (OH) L 73 - 76 50%  +1  8 - 4 1 - 1 +6 +2 D- A+ F +4 A+ F A+
 Tue, Jan 6 323 Central Michigan W 82 - 69 97%  +10  9 - 4 2 - 1 -0 +1 A+ A+ F -2 D A+ A+
 Fri, Jan 9 132 @Bowling Green W 77 - 67 66%  +11  10 - 4 3 - 1 +15 +5 C A+ C+ +10 C+ A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 13 312 Ball St. W 87 - 66 98% 
 Sat, Jan 17 265 Western Michigan W 93 - 75 95% 
 Tue, Jan 20 179 @Buffalo W 86 - 79 75% 
 Sat, Jan 24 170 @Ohio W 87 - 80 74% 
 Tue, Jan 27 180 Toledo W 92 - 79 90% 
 Fri, Jan 30 138 Kent St. W 94 - 83 84% 
 Tue, Feb 3 197 @Eastern Michigan W 82 - 74 77% 
 Sat, Feb 7 137 @Troy W 82 - 78 66% 
 Sat, Feb 14 167 Massachusetts W 92 - 79 88% 
 Tue, Feb 17 265 @Western Michigan W 90 - 78 86% 
 Sat, Feb 21 312 @Ball St. W 84 - 69 91% 
 Tue, Feb 24 179 Buffalo W 89 - 76 89% 
 Sat, Feb 28 138 @Kent St. W 91 - 86 66% 
 Tue, Mar 3 323 @Central Michigan W 88 - 72 93% 
 Fri, Mar 6 325 Northern Illinois W 93 - 71 98% 
Totals 23 - 6 15 - 3 +9 +8 A A+ B- +1 C D+ B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.1 7.2 19.1 25.7 15.2 68.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 4.5 8.7 6.6 1.6 22.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.9 1.5 0.1 6.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.9 4th
5th 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.6 8.9 17.4 25.9 27.3 15.2 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 15.2    14.2 1.0
16-2 94.1% 25.7    20.8 4.9 0.1
15-3 74.0% 19.1    11.7 6.8 0.7 0.0
14-4 41.4% 7.2    2.5 3.4 1.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 12.7% 1.1    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.2% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 68.4% 68.4 49.2 16.5 2.4 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 15.2% 58.1% 57.7% 0.5% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 5.2 1.7 0.1 6.3 1.1%
16-2 27.3% 52.1% 52.0% 0.1% 11.7 0.0 0.0 5.4 8.2 0.6 0.0 13.1 0.2%
15-3 25.9% 44.7% 44.7% 0.0% 12.0 1.7 8.3 1.5 0.0 14.3 0.0%
14-4 17.4% 40.1% 40.1% 12.2 0.4 4.7 1.8 0.1 10.4
13-5 8.9% 32.9% 32.9% 12.5 0.1 1.6 1.1 0.2 6.0
12-6 3.6% 27.1% 27.1% 12.7 0.4 0.4 0.1 2.6
11-7 1.3% 22.4% 22.4% 13.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.0
10-8 0.4% 12.3% 12.3% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
9-9 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
8-10 0.0% 0.0
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 45.8% 45.7% 0.1% 11.8 54.2 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 6.3% 100.0% 10.6 0.2 0.2 0.7 1.5 3.5 7.3 16.2 60.8 9.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.1% 2.2% 11.1 1.9 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.4% 1.5% 11.0 1.5