Akron
Mid-American
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.3#148
Expected Predictive Rating+0.1#166
Pace75.4#36
Improvement-1.5#271

Offense
Total Offense+0.0#169
First Shot-0.8#200
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#129
Layup/Dunks-0.2#188
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#281
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#71
Freethrows-2.6#318
Improvement-2.9#343

Defense
Total Defense+0.3#153
First Shot+0.9#138
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#239
Layups/Dunks-1.8#252
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#215
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#93
Freethrows+0.8#130
Improvement+1.4#74
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.0% 22.0% 16.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.7 14.2
.500 or above 87.2% 95.5% 84.0%
.500 or above in Conference 90.4% 94.1% 88.9%
Conference Champion 23.6% 29.8% 21.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.2% 0.5%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round17.9% 21.9% 16.3%
Second Round1.3% 1.8% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Princeton (Away) - 27.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 33 - 53 - 9
Quad 415 - 318 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 105   @ Arkansas St. L 75-80 OT 25%     0 - 1 +2.4 -5.5 +8.8
  Nov 12, 2024 53   @ St. Mary's L 68-87 12%     0 - 2 -5.7 +1.2 -6.7
  Nov 22, 2024 196   Lamar W 79-72 69%     1 - 2 +2.3 -0.2 +1.9
  Nov 23, 2024 294   Nebraska Omaha W 92-84 84%     2 - 2 -2.2 +19.2 -20.9
  Nov 24, 2024 291   Alabama St. W 97-78 83%     3 - 2 +9.0 +13.3 -5.2
  Dec 03, 2024 205   Northern Kentucky W 86-73 70%     4 - 2 +7.9 +16.8 -8.3
  Dec 15, 2024 132   Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 81-100 45%     4 - 3 -17.4 -7.0 -7.0
  Dec 20, 2024 98   Yale L 58-74 32%     4 - 4 -11.0 -14.9 +4.2
  Dec 21, 2024 309   Jackson St. W 68-50 79%     5 - 4 +9.8 -6.6 +16.0
  Dec 30, 2024 110   @ Princeton L 74-80 28%    
  Jan 03, 2025 289   @ Bowling Green W 81-77 65%    
  Jan 07, 2025 237   Central Michigan W 78-70 76%    
  Jan 11, 2025 305   @ Eastern Michigan W 79-74 69%    
  Jan 14, 2025 208   Toledo W 85-79 70%    
  Jan 17, 2025 147   Ohio W 81-78 61%    
  Jan 21, 2025 330   @ Buffalo W 81-74 75%    
  Jan 25, 2025 200   Miami (OH) W 78-73 68%    
  Jan 28, 2025 349   @ Northern Illinois W 80-71 80%    
  Jan 31, 2025 116   @ Kent St. L 66-72 30%    
  Feb 04, 2025 252   Ball St. W 78-70 77%    
  Feb 11, 2025 293   Western Michigan W 81-71 82%    
  Feb 15, 2025 237   @ Central Michigan W 75-73 55%    
  Feb 18, 2025 349   Northern Illinois W 83-68 91%    
  Feb 22, 2025 147   @ Ohio L 78-81 39%    
  Feb 25, 2025 252   @ Ball St. W 75-73 58%    
  Mar 01, 2025 116   Kent St. W 70-69 51%    
  Mar 04, 2025 208   @ Toledo L 81-82 49%    
  Mar 07, 2025 330   Buffalo W 84-71 88%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 3.1 6.5 6.7 4.6 1.8 0.4 23.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 4.8 8.0 5.4 1.4 0.2 0.0 20.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 4.4 7.2 3.3 0.5 0.0 16.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 3.1 5.9 2.8 0.3 0.0 12.3 4th
5th 0.1 2.0 4.7 2.4 0.2 0.0 9.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 3.3 2.3 0.3 0.0 6.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.0 1.9 0.3 0.0 4.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.8 4.5 7.9 11.1 13.7 15.6 14.8 12.3 8.1 4.8 1.8 0.4 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 99.9% 1.8    1.8 0.0
16-2 96.0% 4.6    4.1 0.5
15-3 82.1% 6.7    4.8 1.8 0.1
14-4 52.6% 6.5    3.0 2.9 0.6 0.0
13-5 21.2% 3.1    0.7 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.9% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 23.6% 23.6 14.8 6.7 1.8 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 47.3% 47.3% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
17-1 1.8% 41.3% 41.3% 12.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 1.1
16-2 4.8% 36.8% 36.8% 13.0 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.4 0.0 3.0
15-3 8.1% 31.3% 31.3% 13.4 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.1 0.1 5.6
14-4 12.3% 26.4% 26.4% 13.8 0.1 1.0 1.7 0.5 0.0 9.1
13-5 14.8% 21.4% 21.4% 14.2 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.0 0.1 11.6
12-6 15.6% 16.8% 16.8% 14.5 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.2 0.1 12.9
11-7 13.7% 13.1% 13.1% 14.8 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.2 11.9
10-8 11.1% 9.9% 9.9% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.3 10.0
9-9 7.9% 7.3% 7.3% 15.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 7.3
8-10 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 15.8 0.0 0.2 4.3
7-11 2.8% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 2.8
6-12 1.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.4
5-13 0.6% 0.6
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 18.0% 18.0% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.1 6.6 4.9 1.1 82.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.3 7.7 51.3 41.0