Akron
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +9.2 #61
Expected Predictive Rating +7.8 #72
Pace 76.2 #28
Improvement -1.1 #242

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #46 B+ A- C+ D+ B-
Defense #114 C+ C- B- C+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #158 1.27 #69 +2.8 #90
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #291 0.88 #44 -1.0 #238
Three Pointers 45% #90 1.13 #41 +4.7 #41
1st FG Attempt 1.15 #29 +6.4 #29
Freethrows 0.25 #321 76% #65 0.19 #280
Second Chance 35.1% #60 1.26 #6 0.44 #15
Turnovers 15.7% #122
Total Offense +7.4 #46

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #179 1.13 #142 +0.4 #161
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #264 0.74 #147 +1.2 #100
Three Pointers 43% #103 0.99 #135 -0.6 #212
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #144 +1.0 #144
Freethrows 0.28 #135 72% #188 0.21 #133
Second Chance 33.4% #293 1.01 #150 0.34 #244
Turnovers 18.6% #69
Total Defense +1.8 #114

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.4% #88 0.7% #233
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 11.0% #34 -2.7% #126
Possession Length 15.5 #38 17.4 #222
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #51 0.16 #144
Improvement -4.7 #352 +3.5 #30

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 50.0% 51.1% 44.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Average Seed 11.6 11.6 11.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 59.6% 64.2% 36.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round49.9% 51.1% 44.2%
Second Round11.6% 12.2% 8.6%
Sweet Sixteen2.3% 2.5% 1.6%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Michigan (Away) - 83.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 38 - 19 - 5
Quad 417 - 026 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 205 James Madison W 85 - 71 91% +0  1 - 0 +8 +5 F+ A+ C+ +3 C B+ A+
 Sat, Nov 8 213 Princeton W 104 - 69 92% +20  2 - 0 +29 +19 A+ A- A+ +7 C A+ B-
 Sun, Nov 16 8 @Purdue L 79 - 97 9% -12  2 - 1 +6 +12 C A+ B+ -5 B- F A+
 Fri, Nov 21 231 Iona W 96 - 75 89% +18  3 - 1 +17 +14 A A+ B- +1 B F A-
 Sun, Nov 23 269 Evansville W 97 - 59 92% +13  4 - 1 +32 +24 A+ A+ C +8 B F A+
 Mon, Nov 24 80 Yale L 94 - 97 58% -6  4 - 2 +4 +26 A+ A+ D+ -22 F D+ D
 Sat, Nov 29 254 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 105 - 81 94% +13  5 - 2 +16 +17 A+ B- F+ -3 B F+ B-
 Wed, Dec 3 315 Bucknell W 97 - 77 97% +11  6 - 2 +8 +21 A- A- A+ -13 F+ C+ F
 Sat, Dec 6 171 @Tulane W 88 - 71 75% +8  7 - 2 +19 +15 A- A+ D +4 A- C+ D-
 Sat, Dec 13 106 Murray St. L 100 - 115 68% -9  7 - 3 -11 +11 A D- A+ -19 F D A+
 Fri, Dec 19 237 Eastern Michigan W 93 - 72 93% +15  8 - 3 1 - 0 +14 +17 B A+ A+ -3 A+ F+ D-
 Sat, Jan 3 90 @Miami (OH) L 73 - 76 50% +1  8 - 4 1 - 1 +6 +0 D- A+ F+ +6 A+ F A+
 Tue, Jan 6 294 Central Michigan W 82 - 69 96% +10  9 - 4 2 - 1 +2 +3 A+ A- F -1 D A A+
 Fri, Jan 9 151 @Bowling Green W 77 - 67 71% +11  10 - 4 3 - 1 +13 +5 C- A- C +8 C+ A- A-
 Tue, Jan 13 298 Ball St. W 87 - 77 96% +11  11 - 4 4 - 1 -1 +11 B- B A+ -12 F D- D+
 Sat, Jan 17 273 Western Michigan W 104 - 89 95% +2  12 - 4 5 - 1 +6 +28 A+ A+ B- -22 F F C-
 Tue, Jan 20 204 @Buffalo W 82 - 63 80% +17  13 - 4 6 - 1 +19 +6 B D+ D+ +14 A+ B+ B-
 Fri, Jan 23 199 @Ohio W 86 - 65 80% +15  14 - 4 7 - 1 +21 +9 B- D+ B- +11 A+ C F+
 Tue, Jan 27 159 Toledo W 91 - 81 87% +0  15 - 4 8 - 1 +7 +14 C+ A+ B- -7 F C A
 Fri, Jan 30 145 Kent St. W 69 - 52 85% +11  16 - 4 9 - 1 +15 -4 C+ D- D- +19 A+ B B
 Tue, Feb 3 237 @Eastern Michigan W 82 - 72 83%
 Sat, Feb 7 140 @Troy W 82 - 77 68%
 Sat, Feb 14 173 Massachusetts W 90 - 77 89%
 Tue, Feb 17 273 @Western Michigan W 89 - 77 88%
 Fri, Feb 20 298 @Ball St. W 82 - 68 91%
 Tue, Feb 24 204 Buffalo W 91 - 76 92%
 Sat, Feb 28 145 @Kent St. W 88 - 83 69%
 Tue, Mar 3 294 @Central Michigan W 86 - 72 90%
 Fri, Mar 6 308 Northern Illinois W 90 - 69 98%
Totals 24 - 5 16 - 2 +9 +7 B+ A- C+ +2 C+ C- B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 6.4 21.6 31.0 59.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 4.8 13.2 15.5 5.1 39.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.4 5.8 19.5 37.0 36.1 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 85.9% 31.0    21.0 10.0
16-2 58.2% 21.6    10.6 11.0
15-3 32.5% 6.4    2.4 3.9 0.1
14-4 12.1% 0.7    0.2 0.5 0.1
13-5 2.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total 59.6% 59.6 34.2 25.3 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 36.1% 56.1% 55.7% 0.4% 11.3 0.0 0.2 0.8 12.0 7.1 0.2 15.8 0.9%
16-2 37.0% 49.4% 49.3% 0.1% 11.8 0.0 5.3 12.1 0.9 18.7 0.2%
15-3 19.5% 44.9% 44.9% 11.9 1.4 6.5 0.8 10.7
14-4 5.8% 37.7% 37.7% 12.1 0.2 1.5 0.4 0.0 3.6
13-5 1.4% 30.9% 30.9% 12.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 1.0
12-6 0.2% 42.9% 42.9% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.1
11-7 0.0% 0.0
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 50.0% 49.8% 0.2% 11.6 50.0 0.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 14.6% 100.0% 11.2 0.0 1.3 5.1 66.3 27.3 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.9% 1.5% 11.0 1.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.5% 0.9% 11.3 0.6 0.3