Akron
Mid-American
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.7#100
Expected Predictive Rating+4.7#96
Pace77.2#15
Improvement+4.4#30

Offense
Total Offense+2.7#101
First Shot+2.2#110
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#153
Layup/Dunks+0.3#169
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#240
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.5#34
Freethrows-2.6#320
Improvement+1.6#98

Defense
Total Defense+2.1#115
First Shot+2.4#98
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#220
Layups/Dunks-1.1#216
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#227
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#58
Freethrows+0.8#124
Improvement+2.8#39
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 41.9% 42.6% 35.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 12.9 13.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 91.2% 92.9% 76.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round41.9% 42.6% 35.7%
Second Round5.7% 5.9% 4.4%
Sweet Sixteen1.1% 1.1% 1.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Ball St. (Home) - 89.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 35 - 46 - 7
Quad 418 - 124 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 93   @ Arkansas St. L 75-80 OT 36%     0 - 1 +3.4 -5.3 +9.5
  Nov 12, 2024 31   @ St. Mary's L 68-87 14%     0 - 2 -2.4 +3.5 -5.7
  Nov 22, 2024 218   Lamar W 79-72 84%     1 - 2 +1.3 -0.5 +1.3
  Nov 23, 2024 212   Nebraska Omaha W 92-84 82%     2 - 2 +2.8 +20.5 -17.2
  Nov 24, 2024 308   Alabama St. W 97-78 92%     3 - 2 +8.0 +13.9 -6.8
  Dec 03, 2024 244   Northern Kentucky W 86-73 87%     4 - 2 +5.6 +15.7 -9.6
  Dec 15, 2024 133   Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 81-100 62%     4 - 3 -17.4 -5.4 -8.6
  Dec 20, 2024 69   Yale L 58-74 38%     4 - 4 -8.2 -13.2 +5.4
  Dec 21, 2024 284   Jackson St. W 68-50 86%     5 - 4 +11.3 -7.6 +18.5
  Dec 30, 2024 129   @ Princeton L 75-76 51%     5 - 5 +3.4 -0.5 +3.9
  Jan 03, 2025 312   @ Bowling Green W 71-68 84%     6 - 5 1 - 0 -3.1 -8.8 +5.6
  Jan 07, 2025 225   Central Michigan W 87-71 84%     7 - 5 2 - 0 +10.0 +17.4 -6.5
  Jan 11, 2025 300   @ Eastern Michigan W 105-81 83%     8 - 5 3 - 0 +18.7 +19.6 -2.9
  Jan 14, 2025 201   Toledo W 85-78 81%     9 - 5 4 - 0 +2.6 +3.2 -0.8
  Jan 17, 2025 168   Ohio W 92-80 76%     10 - 5 5 - 0 +9.5 +11.0 -2.4
  Jan 21, 2025 342   @ Buffalo W 90-58 90%     11 - 5 6 - 0 +22.7 +4.9 +14.8
  Jan 25, 2025 173   Miami (OH) W 102-75 77%     12 - 5 7 - 0 +24.1 +19.4 +2.7
  Jan 28, 2025 338   @ Northern Illinois W 80-70 90%     13 - 5 8 - 0 +0.9 -2.0 +2.1
  Jan 31, 2025 148   @ Kent St. W 85-71 55%     14 - 5 9 - 0 +17.4 +14.4 +2.5
  Feb 04, 2025 255   Ball St. W 85-72 90%    
  Feb 08, 2025 156   South Alabama W 74-67 76%    
  Feb 11, 2025 306   Western Michigan W 85-69 94%    
  Feb 15, 2025 225   @ Central Michigan W 77-71 69%    
  Feb 18, 2025 338   Northern Illinois W 87-68 97%    
  Feb 22, 2025 168   @ Ohio W 82-80 56%    
  Feb 25, 2025 255   @ Ball St. W 82-74 75%    
  Mar 01, 2025 148   Kent St. W 74-68 73%    
  Mar 04, 2025 201   @ Toledo W 86-82 62%    
  Mar 07, 2025 342   Buffalo W 90-71 96%    
Projected Record 22 - 7 16 - 2




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 4.5 15.8 29.4 27.9 13.0 91.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 3.1 2.8 0.8 8.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.1 7.7 18.6 30.2 27.9 13.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 13.0    13.0
17-1 100.0% 27.9    26.9 1.0
16-2 97.5% 29.4    25.8 3.6
15-3 84.8% 15.8    10.8 4.8 0.2
14-4 58.5% 4.5    1.8 2.3 0.4
13-5 27.1% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1
12-6 2.5% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 91.2% 91.2 78.4 12.0 0.8 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 13.0% 53.1% 53.1% 12.1 0.0 1.0 4.1 1.6 0.2 6.1
17-1 27.9% 46.1% 46.1% 12.8 0.1 4.2 6.9 1.7 0.1 15.1
16-2 30.2% 40.4% 40.4% 13.2 0.0 2.0 6.3 3.7 0.2 18.0
15-3 18.6% 37.1% 37.1% 13.5 0.5 2.9 3.1 0.4 11.7
14-4 7.7% 31.1% 31.1% 13.7 0.1 0.9 1.2 0.3 5.3
13-5 2.1% 23.4% 23.4% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.6
12-6 0.4% 27.5% 27.5% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
11-7 0.0% 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0 0.0
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 41.9% 41.9% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 1.1 10.9 18.7 10.2 1.0 58.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.6% 100.0% 12.0 0.4 16.5 66.8 14.9 1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.3%