Alcorn St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -12.6 345
Results Rating -10.8 327
Pace 68.7 174
Improvement +1.9 110

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 327 D+ D- D D- D+
Defense D- 333 D- F B- D+ F+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 151 D+ 55% 273 -0.9 220
2 Pt. Jumpers 58% 23 F+ 30% 356 +0.1 174
Three Pointers 34% 311 C+ 35% 123 -2.6 267
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.6 272 D+ -2.7 278
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.95 289
Second Chance D 25.7% 310 D- 0.90 335 D- 0.23 336
Turnovers D 19.1% 314
Freethrows D- 0.24 344 D+ 69% 279 D- 0.17 352
Total Offense D -6.4 327

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D- 36% 339 C- 11.4% 206
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 23% 198 C 5.1% 193
Three Pointers C+ 86% 140 B+ 0.1% 15
Total D 48% 320 C- 5.9% 215

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 25 F+ 66% 353 +7.5 361
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% 354 D+ 41% 278 -2.5 17
Three Pointers 41% 171 C- 35% 234 +0.8 223
Shot Selection/Accuracy F+ +1.3 359 D- +4.5 335
1st FG Attempt D- 1.14 347
Second Chance F 37.9% 363 F 1.21 359 F 0.46 364
Turnovers B- 18.3% 88
Freethrows D+ 0.34 286 C- 73% 236 D+ 0.25 283
Total Defense D- -6.2 333

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D 55% 309 C 10.6% 186
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 37% 336 B- 7.1% 61
Three Pointers C- 85% 220 C- 0.6% 225
Total D 62% 313 C+ 6.0% 145

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.8 237 16.3 28
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 159 0.26 363
Improvement +1.2 #126 +0.8 #141

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 352 344 330
Results Rating Rank 341 331 313
Conference Record 7 - 11 8 - 10 9 - 9
Conference Finish 11 8 5
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 3% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 29% 67% 17%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four2% 3% 1%
First Round1% 1% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Texas Southern (Away) - 24.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 40 - 5
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 30 - 30 - 11
Quad 49 - 119 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 80 @Florida St. L 76 - 108 3% -17  6% 0 - 1 F -22 C- -1 A C+ F F -18 F F D-
 Thu, Nov 6 182 @South Alabama L 70 - 76 10% +3  71% 0 - 2 C- -4 D -6 A F F C+ +2 D- F A+
 Sat, Nov 8 59 @Minnesota L 50 - 95 2% -30  0% 0 - 3 F -33 F -19 F C- F F -14 B- F C+
 Tue, Nov 11 104 @Maryland L 64 - 84 4% -12  0% 0 - 4 D- -13 F+ -10 B- D- F C- -2 F+ D- A+
 Thu, Nov 13 202 @Howard L 64 - 72 11% -5  1% 0 - 5 D+ -7 D -5 C+ F B+ C- -3 F F A
 Tue, Nov 18 53 @LSU L 81 - 107 2% -7  28% 0 - 6 D- -13 B +7 B+ A+ D F -19 C+ F C+
 Sun, Nov 23 52 @Oklahoma L 53 - 72 2% -5  23% 0 - 7 D+ -6 F -18 C F F A+ +12 A+ A D-
 Fri, Nov 28 213 Indiana St. W 81 - 74 18% +11  98% 1 - 7 C+ +4 D -6 A F+ F A +9 A+ F B+
 Sat, Nov 29 215 @Louisiana Tech L 58 - 83 12% -10  0% 1 - 8 F -25 D- -7 D+ F D- F -21 F F F
 Wed, Dec 3 8 @Iowa St. L 68 - 132 0% -36  5% 1 - 9 F -40 D+ -4 A+ D F F -28 F F B+
 Fri, Dec 19 44 @Baylor L 56 - 113 1% -29  1% 1 - 10 F -43 F -20 F D- C- F -17 F C- B+
 Mon, Dec 29 72 @Mississippi L 43 - 79 3% -14  17% 1 - 11 F -25 F -25 F F B C- -2 F+ D+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 337 @Jackson St. L 86 - 89 36% -7  11% 1 - 12 0 - 1 D- -12 B- +5 C+ C- C+ F -17 F B F
 Sat, Jan 10 310 @Alabama A&M W 64 - 62 26% -4  13% 2 - 12 1 - 1 C- -4 F+ -9 F+ F B- B +5 C+ F+ B-
 Mon, Jan 12 312 @Alabama St. L 66 - 81 27% -6  2% 2 - 13 1 - 2 F -21 F -12 F B- D+ F+ -9 F F A-
 Sat, Jan 17 305 Texas Southern L 71 - 72 46% -1  31% 2 - 14 1 - 3 D- -13 D -4 F+ F+ D+ F+ -8 D+ F+ F+
 Mon, Jan 19 331 Prairie View W 76 - 75 56% +3  74% 3 - 14 2 - 3 D- -13 D -6 F+ C- C- D- -7 F A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 24 328 @Florida A&M L 58 - 66 32% +0  42% 3 - 15 2 - 4 F+ -16 F -16 F F F C -1 F F A+
 Mon, Jan 26 240 @Bethune-Cookman L 73 - 82 15% -11  4% 3 - 16 2 - 5 D -10 C- -2 F+ A- B F+ -8 F A- C-
 Sat, Jan 31 258 Southern W 78 - 73 35% +1  52% 4 - 16 3 - 5 C- -4 B- +5 A+ D- F F+ -8 C- F+ D+
 Mon, Feb 2 296 Grambling St. L 50 - 74 44% -13  2% 4 - 17 3 - 6 F -35 F -21 F F A F -16 F F C
 Sat, Feb 7 329 @Arkansas Pine Bluff L 77 - 84 33% -10  0% 4 - 18 3 - 7 F+ -15 C +1 B D- C F -16 F F A-
 Mon, Feb 9 365 @Mississippi Valley W 74 - 66 77% +12  98% 5 - 18 4 - 7 D- -12 B- +5 B+ F A+ F -16 D- F D+
 Sat, Feb 14 240 Bethune-Cookman W 57 - 55 31% -5  14% 6 - 18 5 - 7 D+ -5 F -15 D- B F A +10 D F A+
 Mon, Feb 16 328 Florida A&M L 78 - 86 55% -10  0% 6 - 19 5 - 8 F -22 D+ -3 F A+ B+ F -18 D+ F F
 Sat, Feb 21 337 Jackson St. W 83 - 65 59% -2  22% 7 - 19 6 - 8 C+ +3 D+ -3 F B C B+ +5 B D- A+
 Thu, Feb 26 305 @Texas Southern L 72 - 79 25%
 Sat, Feb 28 331 @Prairie View L 77 - 81 34%
 Tue, Mar 3 365 Mississippi Valley W 78 - 64 90%
 Thu, Mar 5 329 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 78 - 77 55%
Totals 9 - 21 8 - 10 -13 D -6 B+ D+ D+ D- -6 C+ D+ D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D+ F+ C+ D+ 39% 58% 34% D+ D+ D D- D- D D- D+ D- D- F+ D+ C- D- 45% 14% 41% F+ D- F F F B- D+ C- D+
1.00 55% 30% 35% -3 -1 0.95 26% 0.9 .23 19% .24 69% .17 1.17 66% 41% 35% +5 +1 1.14 38% 1.2 .46 18% .34 73% .18
Nov
4		 Florida St. C- D+ A+ A+ A+ 30% 39% 32% F A C B C+ F A+ F A+ F F B F+ F 54% 5% 40% F F D- F F D- F+ B+ D+
1.00 54% 53% 50% +12 -3 1.20 29% 1.0 .29 28% .49 59% .29 1.42 71% 33% 39% +10 +3 1.28 37% 1.4 .50 11% .37 68% .25
Nov
6		 South Alabama D A+ D B+ A 25% 6% 69% B- A F+ F F F D+ A C C+ F+ A+ D D- 59% 17% 24% D- D- D- F F A+ F A- F
0.97 77% 33% 37% +8 +1 1.20 23% 0.1 .03 25% .20 82% .17 1.06 67% 13% 36% +1 +2 1.09 29% 1.5 .43 21% .47 59% .28
Nov
8		 Minnesota F F F B+ F 35% 48% 17% F F C- C- C- F B- F C F C+ B- A A- 63% 6% 31% F B- F F F C+ F F F
0.72 47% 17% 38% -13 -4 0.69 24% 0.8 .20 23% .28 60% .17 1.36 60% 33% 27% -3 +4 1.04 58% 1.3 .73 17% .64 86% .55
Nov
11		 Maryland F+ A+ F A B+ 26% 30% 44% F B- C- F D- F F+ F+ F+ C- F B B F+ 33% 13% 54% D+ F+ F B- D- A+ F D+ F
0.89 77% 20% 41% +4 -2 1.06 26% 0.8 .19 29% .22 64% .14 1.17 81% 33% 31% +5 +1 1.13 45% 1.0 .45 24% .49 74% .36
Nov
13		 Howard D B- D D+ C+ 45% 19% 36% C- C+ F F F B+ F A+ F+ C- F C+ A F 46% 27% 27% B+ F F F F A D A- C-
0.96 63% 30% 32% -1 +1 1.02 21% 0.3 .07 16% .21 83% .18 1.08 74% 36% 27% +4 0 1.10 42% 1.6 .67 25% .38 68% .26
Nov
18		 LSU B F+ A+ B+ A- 27% 27% 46% D- B+ B+ A+ A+ D F F F F C A A- 61% 0% 39% F C+ F F F C+ F D+ F
1.11 47% 53% 38% +4 -2 1.07 35% 1.3 .46 18% .18 45% .08 1.47 61% 28% -2 +4 1.07 56% 1.6 .88 15% .63 79% .50
Nov
23		 Oklahoma F D F A+ C+ 34% 30% 36% D+ C F F F F F F F A+ A A+ A A+ 32% 13% 55% C- A+ D+ A+ A D- F A F
0.77 50% 21% 47% -1 -1 0.98 20% 0.3 .06 28% .16 63% .10 1.05 47% 14% 28% -12 +1 0.79 37% 0.9 .33 10% .45 68% .31
Nov
28		 Indiana St. D B+ A+ C A 46% 20% 33% B- A B F F+ F B F C A B+ A+ A+ A+ 51% 4% 45% D- A+ D F F B+ F F F
1.02 64% 64% 33% +8 +1 1.19 38% 0.5 .21 25% .30 61% .18 0.93 54% 0% 16% -16 +3 0.76 29% 1.5 .43 21% .40 80% .32
Nov
29		 Louisiana Tech D- F C- B D 51% 24% 24% C D+ B F F D- A+ F D+ F F+ B F F 44% 23% 33% C- F F F F F A+ A A+
0.92 43% 36% 36% -7 0 0.89 38% 0.5 .19 21% .42 48% .20 1.31 65% 33% 41% +6 0 1.13 48% 1.2 .58 13% .16 56% .09
Dec
3		 Iowa St. D+ A+ F A+ A+ 30% 34% 36% D A+ C- F D F F+ D F+ F D- A+ F F 44% 9% 47% F F F F F B+ D+ F D-
0.85 80% 24% 44% +7 -2 1.12 24% 0.9 .21 34% .17 67% .11 1.64 72% 20% 74% +33 +2 1.72 48% 2.0 .95 17% .36 75% .27
Dec
19		 Baylor F A+ F A F 10% 65% 25% F F C- F D- C- F A+ F F F F F F 36% 29% 35% D+ F F A C- B+ D+ F F
0.72 83% 15% 40% -10 -8 0.67 26% 0.7 .19 18% .11 86% .09 1.45 90% 63% 47% +26 -1 1.51 48% 0.9 .43 18% .36 87% .31
Dec
29		 Mississippi F F F F F 32% 40% 28% F F F F+ F B D- B D+ C- F A D D- 32% 20% 48% F F+ F A+ D+ A+ A+ F A+
0.64 25% 20% 21% -23 -3 0.50 18% 0.9 .16 16% .27 73% .20 1.18 81% 30% 38% +8 0 1.18 44% 0.8 .36 19% .15 88% .13
Jan
3		 Jackson St. B- D- F A+ B 28% 28% 44% F C+ C- C+ C- C+ B+ F D+ F F C F+ F 36% 16% 48% F F B- B+ B F F F F
1.23 53% 20% 54% +7 -2 1.13 34% 1.1 .37 14% .40 58% .23 1.27 83% 38% 38% +12 0 1.26 24% 0.9 .21 14% .42 84% .35
Jan
10		 Alabama A&M F+ F A- D+ F 46% 18% 36% C+ F+ D- F F B- F A- F+ B C+ F A+ B- 35% 17% 48% D- C+ F+ D+ F+ B- C+ A+ A
0.99 48% 44% 33% -4 +1 0.96 26% 0.7 .17 14% .23 77% .18 0.96 53% 63% 22% -7 0 0.90 31% 1.1 .33 19% .32 53% .17
Jan
12		 Alabama St. F F F F+ F 35% 19% 46% D+ F D- A+ B- D+ F C F F+ F A+ F+ F 43% 11% 46% F F C F F A- F F F
0.92 44% 10% 29% -13 0 0.75 26% 1.6 .42 20% .28 75% .21 1.13 70% 0% 38% +4 +2 1.13 31% 1.3 .38 22% .47 81% .38
Jan
17		 Texas Southern D C+ F F F 46% 9% 46% B+ F+ D F F+ D+ B+ A+ A+ F+ B- F B+ C 62% 22% 16% F D+ D- F+ F+ F+ F A- F
1.10 62% 25% 24% -6 +2 0.93 28% 0.9 .25 17% .43 91% .39 1.11 54% 50% 29% -1 +1 1.02 30% 1.2 .36 14% .59 64% .38
Jan
19		 Prairie View D D+ A+ F F 44% 17% 39% C+ F+ A F C- C- F A D- D- F B- F F 38% 29% 33% D F A+ A+ A+ D+ B- F C
1.09 54% 56% 24% -5 +1 0.94 48% 0.8 .38 19% .28 81% .23 1.07 70% 33% 41% +7 -1 1.13 13% 0.5 .07 14% .32 84% .27
Jan
24		 Florida A&M F F A+ F F 52% 19% 29% B- F D- F F F D+ D D C F+ A C F 53% 10% 38% F F F+ F F A+ C B- C
0.87 48% 67% 21% -5 +1 0.94 26% 0.6 .16 26% .30 73% .22 0.99 67% 25% 33% +3 +2 1.13 33% 1.4 .48 29% .30 64% .19
Jan
26		 Bethune-Cookman C- D F C D- 43% 25% 32% D F+ C- A+ A- B F D- F F+ F F A F 55% 13% 32% F F C+ A+ A- C- F C- F
1.04 50% 21% 33% -8 0 0.86 30% 1.6 .48 13% .20 67% .13 1.16 73% 67% 27% +8 +2 1.23 26% 0.8 .19 17% .44 69% .31
Jan
31		 Southern B- B+ A+ A+ A+ 40% 9% 51% A- A+ D- D D- F D C D F+ D F+ A C- 36% 20% 43% D- C- F D+ F+ D+ F C F
1.20 67% 75% 43% +14 +2 1.33 26% 1.0 .26 23% .32 75% .24 1.12 63% 44% 26% -2 0 0.98 36% 1.1 .39 15% .47 69% .33
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
2		 Grambling St. F F F F F 49% 17% 34% C+ F F D+ F A C F D F D- B+ D+ F 43% 15% 43% D- F F F F C A D+ A-
0.80 43% 0% 25% -18 +1 0.68 22% 1.0 .22 14% .35 63% .22 1.18 65% 29% 35% +2 +1 1.09 36% 1.5 .54 21% .24 75% .18
Feb
7		 Arkansas Pine Bluff C D D A+ B+ 40% 24% 36% D B F A+ D- C F A F F C- F F F 45% 14% 40% F F F F F A- F D- F
1.16 55% 33% 50% +6 0 1.14 21% 1.5 .32 15% .23 85% .20 1.27 58% 50% 53% +13 +1 1.31 36% 1.3 .48 23% .47 79% .37
Feb
9		 Mississippi Valley B- A+ F A- B+ 36% 14% 50% C+ B+ F A+ F A+ D+ D- D- F B- F A+ F+ 28% 42% 30% C+ D- F F F D+ F A+ F+
1.26 81% 17% 41% +11 +1 1.25 12% 1.7 .20 7% .37 70% .26 1.12 50% 56% 23% 0 -3 0.95 41% 1.1 .44 19% .48 52% .25
Feb
14		 Bethune-Cookman F D+ C F D- 50% 34% 16% F+ D- D- A+ B F B+ F C+ A F A+ A D+ 51% 19% 30% F+ D F B+ F A+ D+ B C
0.89 53% 38% 17% -7 -1 0.87 26% 1.7 .44 22% .38 63% .24 0.86 74% 14% 27% +1 +1 1.05 47% 0.9 .42 36% .34 64% .22
Feb
16		 Florida A&M D+ D D- D- F 46% 29% 25% D F D A+ A+ B+ B A+ A F C+ A- D- D+ 35% 24% 41% C D+ F F F F F D+ F
1.09 54% 33% 31% -4 -1 0.92 27% 1.8 .47 15% .38 87% .33 1.20 56% 27% 37% -1 -1 0.98 36% 1.7 .61 15% .50 70% .35
Feb
21		 Jackson St. D+ F+ F D- F 46% 11% 43% B F B+ C B C A+ B- A+ B+ C+ D A+ A- 39% 16% 45% F B F+ C D- A+ F B- F
1.16 52% 20% 30% -7 +2 0.91 42% 1.1 .45 15% .63 76% .48 0.91 53% 43% 20% -11 +1 0.82 32% 1.0 .32 25% .48 73% .35



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.8 0.8 3rd
4th 0.1 2.4 2.4 4th
5th 1.7 1.6 3.3 5th
6th 0.2 8.9 0.1 9.2 6th
7th 7.1 10.8 17.9 7th
8th 0.9 22.2 2.6 25.7 8th
9th 0.0 6.7 12.0 0.1 18.8 9th
10th 0.6 12.8 1.6 14.9 10th
11th 2.1 4.8 0.1 6.9 11th
12th 12th
Total 2.6 25.2 43.0 24.2 4.9 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 4.9% 5.5% 5.5% 16.0 0.3 4.7
9-9 24.2% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.8 23.4
8-10 43.0% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.5 42.5
7-11 25.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 25.2
6-12 2.6% 2.6
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 16.0 98.4 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 96.5% 16.0 96.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.4%
Lose Out 2.6%