Alcorn St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -11.9 #348
Expected Predictive Rating -10.0 #328
Pace 70.3 #142
Improvement +1.2 #138

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #332 D+ D- D- F+ D+
Defense #326 F+ F C+ D+ F+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #177 1.10 #254 -1.0 #218
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #63 0.63 #341 +0.6 #147
Three Pointers 35% #313 1.08 #87 -2.2 #259
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #256 -2.6 #255
Freethrows 0.23 #356 68% #304 0.15 #357
Second Chance 27.1% #279 0.82 #360 0.22 #346
Turnovers 19.9% #340
Total Offense -6.4 #332

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #19 1.36 #361 -8.7 #364
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #357 0.80 #260 +2.9 #8
Three Pointers 41% #168 1.06 #243 -1.1 #239
1st FG Attempt 1.16 #356 -6.9 #355
Freethrows 0.33 #268 75% #301 0.24 #287
Second Chance 36.6% #350 1.19 #348 0.43 #360
Turnovers 17.4% #133
Total Defense -5.5 #326

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.6% #287 2.9% #363
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.6% #236 10.8% #348
Possession Length 17.5 #197 15.9 #16
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #143 0.28 #364
Improvement +0.5 #148 +0.7 #142

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.5% 3.4% 1.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 41.9% 59.0% 28.8%
Conference Champion 0.9% 1.9% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four2.5% 3.4% 1.8%
First Round1.1% 1.5% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Grambling St. (Home) - 43.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 30 - 30 - 10
Quad 49 - 119 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 101 @Florida St. L 76 - 108 4% -17  0 - 1 -24 +1 A C F -22 F F D-
 Thu, Nov 6 194 @South Alabama L 70 - 76 12% +3  0 - 2 -5 -3 A F F -3 F+ F A+
 Sat, Nov 8 76 @Minnesota L 50 - 95 3% -30  0 - 3 -34 -17 F C- F -18 C+ F C+
 Tue, Nov 11 107 @Maryland L 64 - 84 5% -12  0 - 4 -13 -7 C+ D F -6 F D- A+
 Thu, Nov 13 253 @Howard L 64 - 72 18% -5  0 - 5 -10 -3 C F B -7 F F A-
 Tue, Nov 18 49 @LSU L 81 - 107 2% -7  0 - 6 -12 +10 B A+ D -21 B- F C
 Sun, Nov 23 55 @Oklahoma L 53 - 72 2% -5  0 - 7 -6 -15 C F F +8 A+ A D-
 Fri, Nov 28 198 Indiana St. W 81 - 74 19% +11  1 - 7 +5 -2 A F+ F +6 A+ F B
 Sat, Nov 29 215 @Louisiana Tech L 58 - 83 14% -10  1 - 8 -25 -6 D+ F D- -22 F F F
 Wed, Dec 3 4 @Iowa St. L 68 - 132 0% -36  1 - 9 -39 -1 A+ D+ F -30 F F B
 Fri, Dec 19 47 @Baylor L 56 - 113 2% -29  1 - 10 -42 -17 F D- D+ -19 F C B+
 Mon, Dec 29 59 @Mississippi L 43 - 79 2% -14  1 - 11 -24 -21 F F B- -4 F+ C- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 337 @Jackson St. L 86 - 89 36% -7  1 - 12 0 - 1 -11 +9 C+ C- B- -20 F C+ F+
 Sat, Jan 10 293 @Alabama A&M W 64 - 62 24% -4  2 - 12 1 - 1 -3 -5 D- F B +3 C+ D- B-
 Mon, Jan 12 322 @Alabama St. L 66 - 81 31% -6  2 - 13 1 - 2 -22 -11 F C+ C- -11 F F B+
 Sat, Jan 17 309 Texas Southern L 71 - 72 50% -1  2 - 14 1 - 3 -13 -3 F+ F D+ -10 D+ D- D
 Mon, Jan 19 339 Prairie View W 76 - 75 60% +3  3 - 14 2 - 3 -13 -3 F+ C C -11 F A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 24 317 @Florida A&M L 58 - 66 30% +0  3 - 15 2 - 4 -15 -13 F+ F F -2 F F A+
 Mon, Jan 26 236 @Bethune-Cookman L 73 - 82 16% -11  3 - 16 2 - 5 -10 +0 F+ B+ B -10 F B+ C
 Sat, Jan 31 266 Southern W 78 - 73 39% +1  4 - 16 3 - 5 -4 +8 A+ D D- -12 D+ D- D
 Mon, Feb 2 287 Grambling St. L 71 - 73 43%
 Sat, Feb 7 331 @Arkansas Pine Bluff L 77 - 81 34%
 Mon, Feb 9 365 @Mississippi Valley W 75 - 66 79%
 Sat, Feb 14 236 Bethune-Cookman L 72 - 77 33%
 Mon, Feb 16 317 Florida A&M W 73 - 72 52%
 Sat, Feb 21 337 Jackson St. W 78 - 76 59%
 Thu, Feb 26 309 @Texas Southern L 74 - 80 29%
 Sat, Feb 28 339 @Prairie View L 77 - 80 37%
 Tue, Mar 3 365 Mississippi Valley W 78 - 63 92%
 Thu, Mar 5 331 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 80 - 78 56%
Totals 9 - 21 8 - 10 -12 -6 D+ D- D- -6 F+ F C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.9 1st
2nd 0.5 2.0 0.9 0.0 3.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.1 2.7 0.2 6.0 3rd
4th 1.2 5.9 0.6 7.7 4th
5th 0.0 5.8 3.4 0.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.0 1.4 8.6 0.4 0.0 10.4 6th
7th 0.2 6.7 4.9 0.0 11.7 7th
8th 0.0 2.3 10.1 0.8 13.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 7.6 4.6 0.0 13.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 4.3 7.2 0.6 12.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.8 3.3 5.6 1.7 0.0 11.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.1 0.9 4.0 10.8 19.0 23.4 21.3 13.4 5.5 1.5 0.2 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 77.8% 0.1    0.1 0.1
12-6 34.9% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0
11-7 4.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.2% 8.3% 8.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2
12-6 1.5% 6.5% 6.5% 16.0 0.1 1.4
11-7 5.5% 6.6% 6.6% 16.0 0.4 5.2
10-8 13.4% 5.2% 5.2% 16.0 0.7 12.7
9-9 21.3% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.9 20.4
8-10 23.4% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.4 23.0
7-11 19.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 19.0
6-12 10.8% 10.8
5-13 4.0% 4.0
4-14 0.9% 0.9
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 16.0 97.5 0.0%