Alcorn St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -12.1 #346
Expected Predictive Rating -11.3 #325
Pace 74.4 #51
Improvement -1.7 #277

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #326 C F F F F
Defense #338 F F C D+ F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #235 1.15 #198 -1.3 #235
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% #25 0.57 #351 +1.1 #117
Three Pointers 33% #334 1.27 #4 -0.1 #181
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #187 -0.3 #187
Freethrows 15.1 #295 64% #350 9.6 #334
Second Chance 26.6% #290 0.77 #364 0.21 #354
Turnovers 20.7% #353
Total Offense -6.0 #326

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #32 1.37 #359 -8.4 #364
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #326 0.66 #66 +3.1 #7
Three Pointers 40% #213 1.10 #295 -1.3 #235
1st FG Attempt 1.15 #349 -6.6 #343
Freethrows 18.9 #266 75% #277 14.2 #69
Second Chance 39.7% #363 1.23 #345 0.49 #365
Turnovers 17.2% #147
Total Defense -6.1 #338

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.9% #333 2.3% #351
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.4% #144 11.1% #341
Possession Length 16.8 #137 15.7 #18
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #112 0.27 #360
Improvement +0.0 #185 -1.7 #286

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.5% 4.0% 2.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.9% 2.7% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 36.0% 56.0% 29.5%
Conference Champion 2.7% 6.6% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 1.9% 0.4% 2.4%
First Four2.4% 3.9% 2.0%
First Round1.1% 1.8% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama A&M (Away) - 24.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 20 - 30 - 8
Quad 31 - 21 - 10
Quad 48 - 129 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 111 @Florida St. L 76 - 108 5%  -17  0 - 1 -25 +0 A+ C F -22 F F F
 Thu, Nov 6 200 @South Alabama L 70 - 76 12%  +3  0 - 2 -5 -3 A+ F F -2 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 8 76 @Minnesota L 50 - 95 3%  -30  0 - 3 -34 -17 F C F -18 C+ F C+
 Tue, Nov 11 107 @Maryland L 64 - 84 5%  -12  0 - 4 -13 -6 C D- F -6 F F A+
 Thu, Nov 13 271 @Howard L 64 - 72 20%  -5  0 - 5 -11 -4 C F B- -8 F F A+
 Tue, Nov 18 42 @LSU L 81 - 107 1%  -7  0 - 6 -11 +11 A- A+ F -21 B- F C
 Sun, Nov 23 48 @Oklahoma L 53 - 72 2%  -5  0 - 7 -5 -14 C+ F F +9 A+ A+ D
 Fri, Nov 28 191 Indiana St. W 81 - 74 17%  +11  1 - 7 +5 -2 A+ F F +6 A+ F A-
 Sat, Nov 29 228 @Louisiana Tech L 58 - 83 15%  -10  1 - 8 -26 -5 D+ F D- -23 F F F
 Wed, Dec 3 3 @Iowa St. L 68 - 132 0%  -36  1 - 9 -38 +1 A+ D F -30 F F A-
 Fri, Dec 19 32 @Baylor L 56 - 113 1%  -29  1 - 10 -40 -16 F F D+ -18 F C+ A+
 Mon, Dec 29 71 @Mississippi L 43 - 79 3%  -14  1 - 11 -25 -22 F F B -4 F D+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 342 @Jackson St. L 86 - 89 37%  -7  1 - 12 0 - 1 -12 +9 C D+ B -20 F C+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 303 @Alabama A&M L 70 - 77 25% 
 Mon, Jan 12 301 @Alabama St. L 75 - 82 25% 
 Sat, Jan 17 335 Texas Southern W 79 - 77 57% 
 Mon, Jan 19 306 Prairie View L 81 - 82 48% 
 Sat, Jan 24 345 @Florida A&M L 76 - 79 38% 
 Mon, Jan 26 278 @Bethune-Cookman L 75 - 83 22% 
 Sat, Jan 31 256 Southern L 78 - 82 37% 
 Mon, Feb 2 246 Grambling St. L 72 - 76 34% 
 Sat, Feb 7 327 @Arkansas Pine Bluff L 81 - 86 33% 
 Mon, Feb 9 365 @Mississippi Valley W 78 - 69 79% 
 Sat, Feb 14 278 Bethune-Cookman L 78 - 80 41% 
 Mon, Feb 16 345 Florida A&M W 79 - 76 59% 
 Sat, Feb 21 342 Jackson St. W 80 - 78 59% 
 Thu, Feb 26 335 @Texas Southern L 76 - 80 36% 
 Sat, Feb 28 306 @Prairie View L 78 - 85 27% 
 Tue, Mar 3 365 Mississippi Valley W 81 - 66 91% 
 Thu, Mar 5 327 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 84 - 83 55% 
Totals 9 - 21 8 - 10 -12 -6 C F F -6 F F C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 2.7 1st
2nd 0.2 1.5 2.0 0.6 0.1 4.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.5 2.8 0.8 0.1 5.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.8 1.7 0.1 6.4 4th
5th 0.2 3.5 3.5 0.3 7.5 5th
6th 0.1 2.0 5.5 1.1 8.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 6.0 2.9 0.1 10.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 4.8 5.7 0.5 11.6 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 4.1 6.6 1.6 0.0 13.1 9th
10th 0.1 1.1 4.2 6.2 2.9 0.1 14.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 2.1 4.7 5.1 2.2 0.3 0.0 15.1 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 12th
Total 0.2 1.0 2.4 6.0 10.0 13.2 15.6 15.7 13.2 10.2 6.5 3.6 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 100.0% 0.2    0.1 0.0
14-4 84.8% 0.5    0.4 0.2
13-5 59.6% 1.0    0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 22.3% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1
11-7 2.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.7% 2.7 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.1% 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.2% 19.4% 19.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.6% 10.4% 10.4% 16.0 0.1 0.6
13-5 1.6% 14.8% 14.8% 16.0 0.2 1.4
12-6 3.6% 8.1% 8.1% 16.0 0.3 3.3
11-7 6.5% 6.4% 6.4% 16.0 0.4 6.0
10-8 10.2% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.5 9.7
9-9 13.2% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.5 12.7
8-10 15.7% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.3 15.4
7-11 15.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 15.5
6-12 13.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.2
5-13 10.0% 10.0
4-14 6.0% 6.0
3-15 2.4% 2.4
2-16 1.0% 1.0
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18
Total 100% 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 16.0 97.5 0.0%