Alcorn St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.4#320
Expected Predictive Rating-9.5#317
Pace64.6#281
Improvement+5.6#10

Offense
Total Offense-6.2#333
First Shot-6.2#335
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#186
Layup/Dunks-5.2#341
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#72
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#227
Freethrows-1.3#271
Improvement+0.7#145

Defense
Total Defense-3.3#271
First Shot-2.4#256
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#265
Layups/Dunks+1.9#102
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#4
3 Pt Jumpshots-8.0#361
Freethrows+0.5#148
Improvement+5.0#6
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.7% 6.1% 3.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 94.1% 96.1% 80.0%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four5.7% 6.0% 3.1%
First Round2.9% 3.0% 1.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Pine Bluff (Home) - 87.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 20 - 40 - 8
Quad 30 - 50 - 13
Quad 411 - 711 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 84   @ Utah L 59-100 5%     0 - 1 -31.4 -5.3 -28.4
  Nov 06, 2024 49   @ Utah St. L 46-101 3%     0 - 2 -42.3 -22.3 -20.1
  Nov 11, 2024 141   @ Tulane L 51-84 11%     0 - 3 -29.3 -14.8 -17.4
  Nov 19, 2024 68   @ TCU L 48-71 4%     0 - 4 -12.6 -13.6 -0.7
  Nov 22, 2024 89   @ Washington L 60-77 6%     0 - 5 -8.3 -2.0 -7.7
  Nov 24, 2024 163   @ UC Riverside L 52-69 13%     0 - 6 -14.3 -17.6 +2.5
  Nov 29, 2024 156   @ South Alabama L 65-74 OT 12%     0 - 7 -6.0 +0.6 -7.2
  Dec 01, 2024 16   @ Maryland L 58-96 1%     0 - 8 -18.8 -7.5 -10.0
  Dec 04, 2024 134   @ Wichita St. L 54-78 11%     0 - 9 -20.0 -16.9 -3.1
  Dec 07, 2024 34   @ Oklahoma L 78-94 2%     0 - 10 -0.3 +9.0 -8.8
  Dec 16, 2024 192   @ Rice L 75-77 16%     0 - 11 -1.0 +0.5 -1.5
  Dec 22, 2024 96   @ UAB L 74-91 7%     0 - 12 -9.6 +6.5 -17.3
  Jan 04, 2025 284   Jackson St. L 69-72 49%     0 - 13 0 - 1 -12.2 -1.0 -11.4
  Jan 11, 2025 360   Alabama A&M W 62-52 76%     1 - 13 1 - 1 -6.9 -15.3 +8.9
  Jan 13, 2025 308   Alabama St. W 67-65 56%     2 - 13 2 - 1 -9.0 -5.1 -3.7
  Jan 18, 2025 274   @ Texas Southern L 57-66 29%     2 - 14 2 - 2 -12.8 -11.4 -2.0
  Jan 20, 2025 348   @ Prairie View W 78-70 52%     3 - 14 3 - 2 -1.9 -3.4 +1.2
  Jan 25, 2025 340   Florida A&M L 64-65 68%     3 - 15 3 - 3 -15.1 -7.6 -7.7
  Jan 27, 2025 279   Bethune-Cookman W 70-61 48%     4 - 15 4 - 3 +0.0 +1.5 -0.8
  Feb 01, 2025 224   @ Southern L 69-74 21%     4 - 16 4 - 4 -6.0 -2.3 -3.5
  Feb 03, 2025 339   @ Grambling St. W 60-53 49%     5 - 16 5 - 4 -2.2 -6.9 +5.8
  Feb 08, 2025 363   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 82-70 88%    
  Feb 10, 2025 364   Mississippi Valley W 73-55 96%    
  Feb 15, 2025 279   @ Bethune-Cookman L 64-69 29%    
  Feb 17, 2025 340   @ Florida A&M L 69-70 47%    
  Feb 22, 2025 284   @ Jackson St. L 66-71 30%    
  Mar 01, 2025 348   Prairie View W 75-70 71%    
  Mar 03, 2025 274   Texas Southern L 68-69 50%    
  Mar 06, 2025 364   @ Mississippi Valley W 71-58 89%    
  Mar 08, 2025 363   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 80-73 72%    
Projected Record 11 - 19 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.2 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 1.4 3.9 1.1 6.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.2 8.3 3.3 0.1 14.0 3rd
4th 0.0 2.0 11.2 8.0 0.5 21.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.8 10.9 12.3 1.6 26.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 7.2 10.4 2.3 0.1 21.1 6th
7th 0.2 2.7 3.8 0.9 0.0 7.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.3 1.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.1 0.9 4.9 13.2 24.2 28.1 19.4 8.0 1.4 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 17.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 2.9% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 1.4% 14.4% 14.4% 16.0 0.2 1.2
13-5 8.0% 11.2% 11.2% 16.0 0.9 7.1
12-6 19.4% 8.1% 8.1% 16.0 1.6 17.8
11-7 28.1% 5.5% 5.5% 16.0 1.6 26.5
10-8 24.2% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.9 23.3
9-9 13.2% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.5 12.6
8-10 4.9% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.1 4.8
7-11 0.9% 0.9
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.7% 5.7% 0.0% 16.0 5.7 94.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%