Baylor
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +14.0 #32
Expected Predictive Rating +12.0 #46
Pace 71.2 #124
Improvement +0.4 #156

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #19 B A+ A+ B+ F
Defense #64 B C+ C C+ A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #345 1.36 #21 -1.7 #242
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #28 0.91 #27 +6.1 #7
Three Pointers 39% #216 1.04 #140 -0.2 #189
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #73 +4.2 #72
Freethrows 19.8 #68 76% #75 15.0 #48
Second Chance 41.6% #4 1.09 #132 0.45 #19
Turnovers 12.5% #7
Total Offense +9.2 #19

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 22% #363 1.27 #306 +8.2 #7
2 Pt. Jumpers 40% #1 0.78 #224 -8.0 #365
Three Pointers 38% #270 0.90 #50 +3.9 #49
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #62 +4.1 #62
Freethrows 15.5 #85 75% #282 11.6 #245
Second Chance 29.4% #130 1.00 #133 0.29 #122
Turnovers 16.2% #206
Total Defense +4.7 #64

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.7% #349 -7.4% #1
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 12.2% #29 -0.7% #165
Possession Length 16.5 #103 17.4 #219
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.26 #27 0.19 #239
Improvement -2.7 #327 +3.0 #30

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.8% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 5.4% 9.5% 2.6%
Top 6 Seed 20.6% 31.6% 13.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 64.5% 78.9% 54.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 64.0% 78.5% 54.2%
Average Seed 7.6 7.1 8.1
.500 or above 87.4% 94.7% 82.4%
.500 or above in Conference 45.7% 63.0% 33.9%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 2.1% 0.8% 3.0%
First Four9.0% 6.6% 10.6%
First Round60.5% 75.9% 49.9%
Second Round37.5% 49.2% 29.5%
Sweet Sixteen12.8% 18.0% 9.2%
Elite Eight4.6% 6.6% 3.2%
Final Four1.5% 2.2% 1.0%
Championship Game0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
National Champion0.1% 0.2% 0.1%

Next Game: Houston (Home) - 40.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 82 - 8
Quad 1b4 - 46 - 11
Quad 25 - 211 - 13
Quad 32 - 013 - 13
Quad 46 - 018 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 220 UT Rio Grande Valley W 96 - 81 96%  +6  1 - 0 +9 +12 A+ D+ B+ -5 F A+ D
 Sun, Nov 9 47 Washington W 78 - 69 72%  +4  2 - 0 +17 +7 A- D A+ +10 B+ A+ A-
 Fri, Nov 14 172 Tarleton St. W 94 - 81 94%  +10  3 - 0 +9 +15 A- A+ B -7 F F A+
 Mon, Nov 24 37 Creighton W 81 - 74 53%  +5  4 - 0 +20 +17 D A+ C+ +4 C A A+
 Tue, Nov 25 21 St. John's L 81 - 96 41%  -12  4 - 1 +1 +14 B- B A+ -13 F D- C
 Wed, Nov 26 52 San Diego St. W 91 - 81 64%  +4  5 - 1 +20 +22 A+ C A+ -2 C A+ F
 Tue, Dec 2 296 Sacramento St. W 110 - 88 98%  +7  6 - 1 +11 +24 A+ A+ C -14 C+ F C
 Sat, Dec 6 78 @Memphis L 71 - 78 63%  -2  6 - 2 +4 +5 D- B+ B+ -2 A+ C- F
 Wed, Dec 10 272 Norfolk St. W 97 - 67 97%  +16  7 - 2 +21 +14 A- A- C +4 A B+ D
 Fri, Dec 19 346 Alcorn St. W 113 - 56 99%  +29  8 - 2 +42 +21 A+ D C- +15 A+ C+ F
 Sun, Dec 21 256 Southern W 111 - 67 97%  +15  9 - 2 +35 +35 A+ A+ A+ +1 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 3 44 @TCU L 63 - 69 47%  -7  9 - 3 0 - 1 +9 +5 F A+ A+ +4 A+ A C+
 Wed, Jan 7 3 Iowa St. L 60 - 70 27%  -3  9 - 4 0 - 2 +10 -1 F A+ A+ +11 A+ B+ A-
 Sat, Jan 10 11 Houston L 71 - 73 41% 
 Tue, Jan 13 54 @Oklahoma St. W 86 - 85 55% 
 Fri, Jan 16 18 @Kansas L 73 - 79 30% 
 Tue, Jan 20 17 Texas Tech W 79 - 78 51% 
 Sat, Jan 24 44 TCU W 78 - 73 68% 
 Wed, Jan 28 58 @Cincinnati W 75 - 73 57% 
 Sat, Jan 31 67 @West Virginia W 73 - 71 58% 
 Wed, Feb 4 77 Colorado W 86 - 77 81% 
 Sat, Feb 7 3 @Iowa St. L 71 - 83 13% 
 Tue, Feb 10 8 BYU L 79 - 82 38% 
 Sat, Feb 14 15 Louisville L 80 - 84 37% 
 Tue, Feb 17 74 @Kansas St. W 86 - 83 61% 
 Sat, Feb 21 88 Arizona St. W 86 - 76 83% 
 Tue, Feb 24 2 Arizona L 78 - 85 26% 
 Sat, Feb 28 50 @Central Florida W 82 - 81 51% 
 Wed, Mar 4 11 @Houston L 68 - 76 22% 
 Sat, Mar 7 117 Utah W 87 - 73 89% 
Totals 18 - 12 8 - 10 +14 +9 B A+ A+ +5 B C+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.2 2.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.7 2.3 0.5 0.0 4.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.2 1.4 0.1 8.4 5th
6th 0.2 2.6 5.3 2.4 0.1 10.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.5 6.2 4.0 0.5 0.0 12.2 7th
8th 0.4 5.3 5.4 0.9 0.0 12.0 8th
9th 0.1 2.9 6.8 1.8 0.1 11.6 9th
10th 0.0 1.0 5.9 3.0 0.2 10.2 10th
11th 0.3 3.5 4.2 0.6 0.0 8.5 11th
12th 0.1 1.4 4.2 1.2 0.0 6.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 2.8 1.8 0.1 5.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.8 0.3 0.0 3.7 14th
15th 0.1 0.6 1.2 0.4 2.4 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 3.2 6.7 10.8 14.7 17.3 16.6 12.8 8.9 4.7 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 57.1% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
14-4 15.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 1.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.1% 100.0% 21.4% 78.6% 2.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 0.6% 100.0% 13.0% 87.0% 3.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-5 1.9% 100.0% 5.7% 94.3% 4.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 4.7% 100.0% 4.9% 95.1% 4.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.0 100.0%
11-7 8.9% 99.8% 3.8% 95.9% 5.8 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.4 2.8 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
10-8 12.8% 99.1% 1.9% 97.2% 6.9 0.0 0.4 1.3 3.2 4.1 2.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.0%
9-9 16.6% 95.2% 1.0% 94.1% 8.0 0.0 0.4 1.7 3.7 4.7 3.4 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.8 95.1%
8-10 17.3% 73.6% 0.6% 73.1% 9.6 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 2.7 3.8 3.6 0.1 4.6 73.5%
7-11 14.7% 38.7% 0.2% 38.5% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.6 3.2 0.2 9.0 38.6%
6-12 10.8% 10.5% 0.1% 10.4% 10.9 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.1 9.7 10.5%
5-13 6.7% 1.8% 1.8% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.6 1.8%
4-14 3.2% 3.2
3-15 1.1% 1.1
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 64.5% 1.3% 63.2% 7.6 35.5 64.0%