Baylor
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+16.0#12
Expected Predictive Rating+16.3#23
Pace64.9#288
Improvement+1.6#95

Offense
Total Offense+11.4#5
First Shot+8.0#16
After Offensive Rebound+3.4#22
Layup/Dunks+2.3#101
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#17
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#70
Freethrows-2.2#307
Improvement+0.9#112

Defense
Total Defense+4.6#60
First Shot+4.2#59
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#146
Layups/Dunks+11.5#3
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#347
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.4#348
Freethrows+1.0#106
Improvement+0.7#134
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.0% 1.1% 0.1%
#1 Seed 6.7% 7.5% 2.0%
Top 2 Seed 18.3% 20.1% 8.0%
Top 4 Seed 46.6% 49.6% 29.4%
Top 6 Seed 68.5% 71.6% 50.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 90.4% 92.3% 79.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 89.5% 91.5% 78.6%
Average Seed 4.9 4.7 5.9
.500 or above 94.8% 96.3% 86.6%
.500 or above in Conference 85.4% 88.4% 68.6%
Conference Champion 10.0% 11.3% 3.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.2% 1.4%
First Four4.2% 3.6% 7.3%
First Round88.8% 90.9% 76.9%
Second Round71.8% 74.3% 57.8%
Sweet Sixteen40.9% 42.9% 29.7%
Elite Eight19.9% 21.2% 13.0%
Final Four9.5% 10.2% 5.9%
Championship Game4.3% 4.6% 2.6%
National Champion1.8% 1.9% 0.9%

Next Game: Utah (Home) - 84.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 84 - 8
Quad 1b4 - 28 - 10
Quad 24 - 113 - 11
Quad 34 - 017 - 11
Quad 44 - 021 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 4   @ Gonzaga L 63-101 26%     0 - 1 -15.1 -1.3 -13.6
  Nov 09, 2024 31   Arkansas W 72-67 62%     1 - 1 +17.9 +11.3 +7.0
  Nov 12, 2024 140   Sam Houston St. W 104-67 94%     2 - 1 +35.1 +23.1 +10.4
  Nov 17, 2024 285   Tarleton St. W 104-41 98%     3 - 1 +53.3 +28.7 +24.0
  Nov 21, 2024 15   St. John's W 99-98 2OT 52%     4 - 1 +16.6 +12.3 +4.1
  Nov 22, 2024 3   Tennessee L 62-77 35%     4 - 2 +5.1 +10.2 -7.3
  Nov 27, 2024 343   New Orleans W 91-60 99%     5 - 2 +16.4 +18.9 +0.2
  Dec 04, 2024 10   @ Connecticut L 72-76 36%     5 - 3 +15.7 +15.9 -0.9
  Dec 09, 2024 212   Abilene Christian W 88-57 97%     6 - 3 +25.4 +19.6 +7.8
  Dec 11, 2024 184   Norfolk St. W 94-69 96%     7 - 3 +20.8 +18.2 +2.5
  Dec 31, 2024 65   Utah W 82-71 85%    
  Jan 04, 2025 6   @ Iowa St. L 73-80 27%    
  Jan 07, 2025 26   Cincinnati W 73-68 68%    
  Jan 11, 2025 59   @ Arizona St. W 76-72 64%    
  Jan 14, 2025 11   @ Arizona L 76-79 39%    
  Jan 19, 2025 66   TCU W 77-66 85%    
  Jan 22, 2025 84   Kansas St. W 79-67 87%    
  Jan 25, 2025 65   @ Utah W 79-74 67%    
  Jan 28, 2025 42   @ BYU W 78-76 56%    
  Feb 01, 2025 8   Kansas W 75-74 54%    
  Feb 04, 2025 18   @ Texas Tech L 73-75 43%    
  Feb 08, 2025 81   Central Florida W 80-68 86%    
  Feb 10, 2025 5   @ Houston L 64-71 27%    
  Feb 15, 2025 39   West Virginia W 75-68 75%    
  Feb 17, 2025 11   Arizona W 79-76 61%    
  Feb 22, 2025 76   @ Colorado W 75-69 69%    
  Feb 25, 2025 26   @ Cincinnati L 70-71 46%    
  Mar 01, 2025 96   Oklahoma St. W 84-70 89%    
  Mar 04, 2025 66   @ TCU W 74-69 67%    
  Mar 08, 2025 5   Houston L 67-68 48%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.1 2.9 1.5 0.5 0.1 10.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.7 4.7 3.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 11.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.0 5.6 3.2 0.6 0.0 12.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.5 5.7 3.4 0.6 0.0 12.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 5.4 4.1 0.7 0.0 12.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 4.2 4.2 1.0 0.1 10.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.9 3.8 1.2 0.1 8.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.7 3.7 1.5 0.1 7.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 2.5 1.7 0.2 0.0 5.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 3.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.6 1.3 0.4 0.0 2.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.6 12th
13th 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.1 4.1 6.6 9.6 11.8 14.0 14.3 12.8 10.2 6.9 3.7 1.6 0.5 0.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 99.6% 0.5    0.5 0.0
18-2 95.1% 1.5    1.3 0.2 0.0
17-3 77.3% 2.9    1.9 0.8 0.1
16-4 45.3% 3.1    1.2 1.4 0.5 0.0
15-5 16.5% 1.7    0.4 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0
14-6 2.5% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 10.0% 10.0 5.3 3.2 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 40.0% 60.0% 1.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.5% 100.0% 35.5% 64.5% 1.2 0.4 0.1 100.0%
18-2 1.6% 100.0% 31.2% 68.8% 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 3.7% 100.0% 23.6% 76.4% 1.6 1.8 1.6 0.4 0.0 100.0%
16-4 6.9% 100.0% 20.6% 79.4% 2.1 1.8 3.1 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 10.2% 100.0% 17.2% 82.8% 2.6 1.2 3.4 3.8 1.5 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-6 12.8% 100.0% 12.4% 87.6% 3.5 0.4 2.0 4.3 3.9 1.8 0.3 0.0 100.0%
13-7 14.3% 100.0% 8.9% 91.1% 4.3 0.1 0.7 2.8 4.6 3.9 1.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-8 14.0% 99.9% 5.1% 94.8% 5.3 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.7 4.1 3.6 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-9 11.8% 98.9% 3.6% 95.2% 6.5 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.9 2.9 2.7 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.1 98.8%
10-10 9.6% 94.4% 2.5% 91.9% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.8 2.1 1.8 0.8 0.0 0.5 94.2%
9-11 6.6% 69.3% 2.1% 67.2% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.1 2.1 0.2 2.0 68.7%
8-12 4.1% 26.2% 1.3% 24.9% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.0 25.2%
7-13 2.1% 3.9% 0.8% 3.2% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.0 3.2%
6-14 1.1% 0.2% 0.2% 12.0 0.0 1.1
5-15 0.5% 0.5
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 90.4% 9.2% 81.2% 4.9 6.7 11.6 14.3 14.0 12.5 9.4 6.2 4.6 3.7 3.3 3.6 0.4 0.0 9.6 89.5%