Baylor
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.8#20
Expected Predictive Rating+15.0#32
Pace64.4#288
Improvement+1.7#104

Offense
Total Offense+10.7#10
First Shot+7.5#22
After Offensive Rebound+3.2#23
Layup/Dunks+1.9#113
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#15
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#82
Freethrows-2.1#302
Improvement-0.8#224

Defense
Total Defense+5.1#54
First Shot+4.0#64
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#85
Layups/Dunks+11.3#3
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#346
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.3#344
Freethrows+1.0#109
Improvement+2.5#54
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.8% 2.0% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 3.5% 7.7% 1.4%
Top 4 Seed 19.9% 34.5% 12.5%
Top 6 Seed 50.0% 68.1% 40.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 95.4% 99.0% 93.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 95.1% 98.9% 93.3%
Average Seed 6.4 5.4 6.9
.500 or above 99.3% 100.0% 99.0%
.500 or above in Conference 94.1% 98.8% 91.8%
Conference Champion 0.9% 2.4% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four4.2% 1.0% 5.7%
First Round93.8% 98.6% 91.4%
Second Round66.8% 76.4% 61.9%
Sweet Sixteen30.8% 38.6% 26.9%
Elite Eight13.9% 17.5% 12.1%
Final Four5.8% 7.7% 4.8%
Championship Game2.4% 3.2% 2.1%
National Champion0.9% 1.1% 0.9%

Next Game: Texas Tech (Away) - 33.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 93 - 9
Quad 1b4 - 17 - 10
Quad 25 - 112 - 11
Quad 33 - 115 - 12
Quad 45 - 020 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 11   @ Gonzaga L 63-101 33%     0 - 1 -17.8 -3.2 -14.4
  Nov 09, 2024 43   Arkansas W 72-67 66%     1 - 1 +16.6 +11.6 +5.4
  Nov 12, 2024 181   Sam Houston St. W 104-67 95%     2 - 1 +33.4 +23.3 +8.5
  Nov 17, 2024 247   Tarleton St. W 104-41 97%     3 - 1 +55.4 +30.9 +23.9
  Nov 21, 2024 14   St. John's W 99-98 2OT 45%     4 - 1 +18.1 +17.0 +0.9
  Nov 22, 2024 6   Tennessee L 62-77 36%     4 - 2 +4.6 +11.6 -9.2
  Nov 27, 2024 351   New Orleans W 91-60 99%     5 - 2 +15.7 +17.9 +0.5
  Dec 04, 2024 24   @ Connecticut L 72-76 44%     5 - 3 +13.4 +15.3 -2.5
  Dec 09, 2024 242   Abilene Christian W 88-57 97%     6 - 3 +23.7 +21.0 +4.7
  Dec 11, 2024 185   Norfolk St. W 94-69 96%     7 - 3 +21.2 +18.3 +2.9
  Dec 31, 2024 84   Utah W 81-56 85%     8 - 3 1 - 0 +29.6 +3.5 +23.9
  Jan 04, 2025 8   @ Iowa St. L 55-74 33%     8 - 4 1 - 1 +1.5 -2.4 +2.4
  Jan 07, 2025 59   Cincinnati W 68-48 79%     9 - 4 2 - 1 +27.2 +13.7 +16.8
  Jan 11, 2025 61   @ Arizona St. W 72-66 OT 66%     10 - 4 3 - 1 +17.5 +7.6 +9.9
  Jan 14, 2025 10   @ Arizona L 70-81 33%     10 - 5 3 - 2 +9.3 +9.1 -0.3
  Jan 19, 2025 68   TCU L 71-74 84%     10 - 6 3 - 3 +2.4 +6.4 -4.1
  Jan 22, 2025 55   Kansas St. W 70-62 79%     11 - 6 4 - 3 +15.4 +16.2 +1.0
  Jan 25, 2025 84   @ Utah W 76-61 72%     12 - 6 5 - 3 +24.6 +18.1 +8.5
  Jan 28, 2025 33   @ BYU L 89-93 OT 49%     12 - 7 5 - 4 +12.2 +22.3 -10.1
  Feb 01, 2025 7   Kansas W 81-70 47%     13 - 7 6 - 4 +27.5 +11.4 +15.3
  Feb 04, 2025 12   @ Texas Tech L 71-75 33%    
  Feb 08, 2025 62   Central Florida W 82-73 82%    
  Feb 10, 2025 3   @ Houston L 62-71 18%    
  Feb 15, 2025 39   West Virginia W 71-65 74%    
  Feb 17, 2025 10   Arizona W 77-76 53%    
  Feb 22, 2025 98   @ Colorado W 76-68 77%    
  Feb 25, 2025 59   @ Cincinnati W 69-65 62%    
  Mar 01, 2025 102   Oklahoma St. W 81-67 91%    
  Mar 04, 2025 68   @ TCU W 72-67 67%    
  Mar 08, 2025 3   Houston L 64-68 35%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 0.3 0.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 2.1 0.1 3.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.8 5.2 0.9 8.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 6.9 3.8 0.1 12.0 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 7.4 9.0 0.9 18.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 7.4 13.4 3.2 0.0 25.0 6th
7th 0.3 5.0 9.3 3.7 0.1 18.4 7th
8th 0.0 1.6 4.7 2.0 0.1 8.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.0 1.0 0.1 3.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.1 1.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 11th
12th 0.1 0.1 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.1 4.6 11.8 19.9 25.9 21.0 11.5 3.6 0.4 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 74.4% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 15.8% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0
14-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.4% 100.0% 18.6% 81.4% 1.8 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 3.6% 100.0% 15.3% 84.7% 2.7 0.4 1.1 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 11.5% 100.0% 10.2% 89.8% 4.0 0.1 1.0 2.6 3.7 2.8 1.1 0.2 100.0%
13-7 21.0% 99.9% 7.6% 92.3% 5.2 0.1 0.3 1.9 3.9 5.7 5.5 2.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 99.9%
12-8 25.9% 99.8% 4.0% 95.8% 6.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 4.3 6.6 7.4 4.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.8%
11-9 19.9% 97.7% 3.2% 94.5% 7.6 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.6 4.3 5.7 3.7 1.6 0.3 0.5 97.6%
10-10 11.8% 89.6% 2.3% 87.3% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.6 2.6 3.2 1.9 0.0 1.2 89.4%
9-11 4.6% 62.6% 1.1% 61.5% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.8 0.1 1.7 62.2%
8-12 1.1% 16.8% 16.8% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.9 16.8%
7-13 0.2% 0.2
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 95.4% 5.4% 90.0% 6.4 0.8 2.7 6.2 10.1 14.0 16.2 15.5 12.3 7.9 5.5 4.0 0.2 4.6 95.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 1.8 42.9 42.9 4.8 9.5