College of Charleston
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.7#131
Expected Predictive Rating+5.1#93
Pace75.7#34
Improvement-1.5#258

Offense
Total Offense+1.6#129
First Shot+4.1#70
After Offensive Rebound-2.5#319
Layup/Dunks-0.5#202
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#124
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#111
Freethrows+1.8#80
Improvement+1.2#117

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#165
First Shot-0.6#200
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#119
Layups/Dunks-1.5#234
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#208
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#171
Freethrows+0.3#166
Improvement-2.8#315
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.1% 18.5% 13.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.7 14.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 100.0% 98.1%
Conference Champion 13.6% 14.4% 3.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round18.1% 18.5% 13.4%
Second Round1.2% 1.2% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: N.C. A&T (Home) - 92.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 22 - 3
Quad 39 - 510 - 8
Quad 412 - 223 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 183   Southern Illinois W 90-80 61%     1 - 0 +8.9 +7.7 +0.1
  Nov 08, 2024 177   South Florida W 86-71 69%     2 - 0 +11.7 +0.5 +9.2
  Nov 15, 2024 106   Florida Atlantic W 119-116 2OT 50%     3 - 0 +4.7 +14.9 -10.9
  Nov 17, 2024 90   Liberty L 47-68 42%     3 - 1 -17.3 -19.0 +0.2
  Nov 20, 2024 358   @ The Citadel W 76-61 89%     4 - 1 +3.4 +2.3 +1.8
  Nov 24, 2024 121   @ Rhode Island L 53-91 38%     4 - 2 -33.2 -20.0 -10.8
  Nov 27, 2024 244   Northern Kentucky W 79-64 81%     5 - 2 +7.6 +7.4 +0.6
  Dec 10, 2024 86   @ Saint Joseph's W 78-75 24%     6 - 2 +12.2 +5.7 +6.2
  Dec 16, 2024 151   Wofford W 77-67 63%     7 - 2 +8.3 +5.0 +3.9
  Dec 22, 2024 76   Oregon St. L 65-74 29%     7 - 3 -1.5 -7.8 +6.5
  Dec 23, 2024 128   Loyola Chicago W 77-68 49%     8 - 3 +10.9 +0.0 +10.1
  Dec 25, 2024 221   Charlotte W 84-81 68%     9 - 3 -0.3 +4.8 -5.3
  Jan 02, 2025 287   Hampton W 94-67 85%     10 - 3 1 - 0 +17.6 +8.1 +6.9
  Jan 04, 2025 160   Towson W 77-69 64%     11 - 3 2 - 0 +5.9 +6.5 -0.4
  Jan 09, 2025 174   @ Hofstra W 67-61 49%     12 - 3 3 - 0 +7.9 -1.4 +9.3
  Jan 11, 2025 253   @ Monmouth L 73-84 67%     12 - 4 3 - 1 -13.8 -1.8 -11.9
  Jan 16, 2025 178   @ Campbell W 67-61 50%     13 - 4 4 - 1 +7.7 -2.0 +9.7
  Jan 18, 2025 206   Northeastern W 87-85 73%     14 - 4 5 - 1 -2.7 +9.9 -12.7
  Jan 23, 2025 117   UNC Wilmington L 83-85 55%     14 - 5 5 - 2 -1.7 +7.8 -9.5
  Jan 25, 2025 175   @ Elon W 76-62 50%     15 - 5 6 - 2 +15.8 +12.0 +5.3
  Jan 30, 2025 318   Stony Brook W 81-74 89%     16 - 5 7 - 2 -4.7 +5.7 -10.0
  Feb 03, 2025 208   @ William & Mary L 75-90 56%     16 - 6 7 - 3 -14.9 +2.7 -18.2
  Feb 06, 2025 333   N.C. A&T W 90-75 93%    
  Feb 08, 2025 175   Elon W 77-72 70%    
  Feb 13, 2025 117   @ UNC Wilmington L 74-78 36%    
  Feb 15, 2025 333   @ N.C. A&T W 87-77 81%    
  Feb 20, 2025 206   @ Northeastern W 77-76 54%    
  Feb 22, 2025 195   @ Drexel W 71-70 50%    
  Feb 27, 2025 232   Delaware W 88-80 79%    
  Mar 01, 2025 178   Campbell W 76-71 70%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 3.1 7.0 3.3 13.6 1st
2nd 0.1 3.8 12.8 7.3 0.8 24.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.3 13.6 10.2 1.3 27.5 3rd
4th 0.5 7.6 8.1 1.0 17.1 4th
5th 0.1 2.6 6.2 1.3 0.0 10.1 5th
6th 0.3 2.6 1.1 4.0 6th
7th 0.9 1.0 0.0 1.9 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 0.1 0.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.2 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.2 2.0 6.8 17.3 27.0 27.0 15.6 4.1 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 81.7% 3.3    2.1 1.2 0.1
14-4 44.9% 7.0    2.1 3.3 1.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 11.4% 3.1    0.2 1.1 1.3 0.5 0.1
12-6 0.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.6% 13.6 4.3 5.6 2.9 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 4.1% 29.1% 29.1% 12.5 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 2.9
14-4 15.6% 23.1% 23.1% 13.2 0.4 1.9 1.3 0.0 12.0
13-5 27.0% 21.9% 21.9% 13.7 0.1 2.1 3.1 0.6 21.1
12-6 27.0% 17.0% 17.0% 14.0 0.9 2.8 0.9 0.1 22.4
11-7 17.3% 12.7% 12.7% 14.3 0.0 0.1 1.3 0.8 0.0 15.1
10-8 6.8% 7.4% 7.4% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 6.3
9-9 2.0% 3.5% 3.5% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9
8-10 0.2% 0.2
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 18.1% 18.1% 0.0% 13.7 0.1 1.2 5.4 8.6 2.7 0.1 81.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.2% 100.0% 12.5 5.0 52.9 33.6 8.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.2%