College of Charleston
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.5 #149
Expected Predictive Rating +2.3 #133
Pace 70.4 #153
Improvement +4.7 #10

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #152 C C C+ B C-
Defense #159 C B F B B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #263 1.31 #45 +0.8 #142
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #151 0.72 #222 +0.2 #168
Three Pointers 43% #146 0.88 #319 -1.9 #255
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #200 -0.9 #199
Freethrows 19.9 #64 74% #145 14.7 #65
Second Chance 29.5% #226 1.05 #180 0.31 #203
Turnovers 15.7% #126
Total Offense +0.4 #152

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #331 1.21 #242 +3.2 #74
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #88 0.73 #152 -1.0 #252
Three Pointers 45% #80 1.00 #162 -1.5 #245
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #151 +0.7 #150
Freethrows 15.3 #81 69% #47 10.5 #307
Second Chance 30.3% #159 0.91 #40 0.28 #80
Turnovers 13.3% #338
Total Defense +0.0 #159

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.8% #241 -1.8% #48
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.2% #190 0.5% #188
Possession Length 17.3 #176 17.1 #158
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #125 0.19 #242
Improvement +0.2 #167 +4.5 #4

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.8% 11.5% 8.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.5 13.9
.500 or above 88.6% 92.2% 75.5%
.500 or above in Conference 92.0% 94.8% 81.4%
Conference Champion 16.8% 19.5% 7.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.4%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round10.8% 11.5% 8.0%
Second Round0.6% 0.6% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Hampton (Home) - 78.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 51 - 5
Quad 37 - 58 - 11
Quad 411 - 319 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 99 @Liberty L 75 - 90 23%  -8  0 - 1 -7 +13 A- A+ D -22 F F F
 Sat, Nov 8 106 Florida Atlantic L 77 - 94 35%  -15  0 - 2 -13 +9 C D A+ -22 C F F
 Fri, Nov 14 357 South Carolina St. W 88 - 61 95%  +14  1 - 2 +9 +12 C+ C+ A+ -2 C A F
 Mon, Nov 17 169 Drake L 62 - 71 66%  -5  1 - 3 -13 -12 F D- C- -1 C+ B+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 167 Massachusetts W 69 - 65 55%  -1  2 - 3 +3 -1 F A+ A +4 D+ B- A-
 Sun, Nov 23 80 Yale L 63 - 74 26%  -9  2 - 4 -4 -6 F F B- +1 C A+ D+
 Mon, Nov 24 263 Evansville W 78 - 59 73%  +12  3 - 4 +13 +5 B- C C+ +8 A- A+ F
 Sun, Nov 30 73 Belmont L 73 - 96 33%  -19  3 - 5 -18 +0 F B+ A+ -18 F A+ F
 Wed, Dec 10 89 @South Florida L 75 - 81 19%  -2  3 - 6 +4 +7 D- B B -4 C+ B- D-
 Sun, Dec 14 166 Charlotte W 74 - 67 66%  +4  4 - 6 +3 -1 B- C D- +4 B A+ C
 Wed, Dec 17 360 The Citadel W 82 - 78 95%  -2  5 - 6 -14 -5 C F D -9 F B- D
 Sun, Dec 21 174 @Northern Kentucky W 85 - 74 45%  +4  6 - 6 +13 +9 A- B- C+ +4 C- A+ A+
 Mon, Dec 29 248 Drexel W 72 - 63 79%  -1  7 - 6 1 - 0 +1 +5 B+ A F -3 C B- C-
 Wed, Dec 31 163 @Elon W 85 - 81 42%  +7  8 - 6 2 - 0 +6 +6 D- A- C- +1 A B+ F
 Mon, Jan 5 127 William & Mary W 88 - 79 56%  +6  9 - 6 3 - 0 +8 +2 A F F +4 A+ C F
 Sat, Jan 10 252 Hampton W 75 - 66 79% 
 Thu, Jan 15 175 @Towson L 68 - 69 44% 
 Sat, Jan 17 276 @Stony Brook W 71 - 67 65% 
 Thu, Jan 22 199 Campbell W 82 - 76 71% 
 Sat, Jan 24 163 Elon W 80 - 76 65% 
 Thu, Jan 29 109 @Hofstra L 69 - 76 26% 
 Sat, Jan 31 233 @Northeastern W 78 - 77 55% 
 Thu, Feb 5 305 N.C. A&T W 82 - 70 86% 
 Mon, Feb 9 118 UNC Wilmington W 72 - 71 52% 
 Thu, Feb 12 109 Hofstra L 72 - 73 47% 
 Sat, Feb 14 199 @Campbell L 78 - 79 50% 
 Thu, Feb 19 305 @N.C. A&T W 79 - 73 70% 
 Sat, Feb 21 194 Monmouth W 75 - 69 70% 
 Thu, Feb 26 252 @Hampton W 72 - 69 59% 
 Sat, Feb 28 118 @UNC Wilmington L 69 - 74 31% 
Totals 18 - 12 12 - 6 +0 +0 C C C+ +0 C B F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.2 5.1 2.7 0.8 0.1 16.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 4.5 8.1 5.1 1.4 0.1 19.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 5.3 8.6 5.0 0.7 0.0 20.3 3rd
4th 0.4 3.7 7.5 3.3 0.3 0.0 15.3 4th
5th 0.1 2.0 5.4 2.8 0.2 0.0 10.5 5th
6th 0.7 3.4 2.4 0.2 6.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.7 2.4 0.4 0.0 4.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 1.7 0.5 0.0 3.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 0.6 0.0 1.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.2 4.8 8.7 12.7 16.6 16.9 15.9 11.0 6.5 2.8 0.8 0.1 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.8    0.7 0.0
16-2 96.9% 2.7    2.4 0.3 0.0
15-3 78.5% 5.1    3.4 1.6 0.2
14-4 47.1% 5.2    2.1 2.4 0.7 0.1
13-5 15.8% 2.5    0.5 1.0 0.8 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.5% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.8% 16.8 9.3 5.4 1.8 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.8% 26.7% 26.7% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6
16-2 2.8% 25.0% 25.0% 12.7 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 2.1
15-3 6.5% 20.9% 20.9% 13.0 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 5.2
14-4 11.0% 16.8% 16.8% 13.2 0.2 1.0 0.6 0.0 9.2
13-5 15.9% 14.3% 14.3% 13.5 0.1 1.1 1.0 0.1 13.6
12-6 16.9% 11.4% 11.4% 13.7 0.0 0.6 1.0 0.2 15.0
11-7 16.6% 8.5% 8.5% 14.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 15.2
10-8 12.7% 4.9% 4.9% 14.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 12.0
9-9 8.7% 3.0% 3.0% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 8.4
8-10 4.8% 1.8% 1.8% 15.2 0.1 0.0 4.7
7-11 2.2% 2.5% 2.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.1
6-12 0.8% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 0.8
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 10.8% 10.8% 0.0% 13.5 89.2 0.0%