College of Charleston
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.9#117
Expected Predictive Rating+8.2#72
Pace76.6#27
Improvement+0.7#139

Offense
Total Offense+0.9#145
First Shot+2.6#100
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#284
Layup/Dunks+0.1#181
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#142
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#147
Freethrows+1.1#113
Improvement-1.2#275

Defense
Total Defense+1.9#116
First Shot+1.3#125
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#129
Layups/Dunks-0.4#180
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#193
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#151
Freethrows+0.5#152
Improvement+1.9#45
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.7% 24.6% 18.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.7 13.1
.500 or above 99.5% 99.8% 98.4%
.500 or above in Conference 94.8% 96.4% 86.5%
Conference Champion 34.2% 37.1% 18.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.5%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round23.7% 24.6% 18.4%
Second Round2.9% 3.1% 1.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Hampton (Home) - 84.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 32 - 3
Quad 38 - 410 - 7
Quad 413 - 223 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 198   Southern Illinois W 90-80 67%     1 - 0 +8.2 +8.1 -0.9
  Nov 08, 2024 169   South Florida W 86-71 73%     2 - 0 +11.5 -0.8 +10.2
  Nov 15, 2024 88   Florida Atlantic W 119-116 2OT 48%     3 - 0 +6.3 +15.9 -10.3
  Nov 17, 2024 73   Liberty L 47-68 43%     3 - 1 -16.4 -18.7 +0.8
  Nov 20, 2024 354   @ The Citadel W 76-61 88%     4 - 1 +5.3 +2.6 +3.3
  Nov 24, 2024 93   @ Rhode Island L 53-91 29%     4 - 2 -29.5 -19.1 -8.0
  Nov 27, 2024 205   Northern Kentucky W 79-64 78%     5 - 2 +9.9 +8.5 +1.8
  Dec 10, 2024 86   @ Saint Joseph's W 78-75 26%     6 - 2 +12.6 +5.7 +6.7
  Dec 16, 2024 151   Wofford W 77-67 71%     7 - 2 +7.2 +4.7 +3.0
  Dec 22, 2024 69   Oregon St. L 65-74 31%     7 - 3 -1.1 -4.9 +4.1
  Dec 23, 2024 121   Loyola Chicago W 77-68 51%     8 - 3 +11.6 +0.5 +10.4
  Dec 25, 2024 193   Charlotte W 84-81 67%     9 - 3 +1.4 +4.0 -2.8
  Jan 02, 2025 248   Hampton W 78-67 84%    
  Jan 04, 2025 209   Towson W 71-63 79%    
  Jan 09, 2025 149   @ Hofstra L 69-70 49%    
  Jan 11, 2025 261   @ Monmouth W 79-74 69%    
  Jan 16, 2025 296   @ Campbell W 76-69 75%    
  Jan 18, 2025 170   Northeastern W 78-72 73%    
  Jan 23, 2025 134   UNC Wilmington W 78-74 65%    
  Jan 25, 2025 181   @ Elon W 75-74 53%    
  Jan 30, 2025 306   Stony Brook W 83-69 90%    
  Feb 01, 2025 221   @ William & Mary W 86-83 62%    
  Feb 06, 2025 324   N.C. A&T W 89-74 91%    
  Feb 08, 2025 181   Elon W 78-71 74%    
  Feb 13, 2025 134   @ UNC Wilmington L 75-77 44%    
  Feb 15, 2025 324   @ N.C. A&T W 86-77 80%    
  Feb 20, 2025 170   @ Northeastern W 75-74 51%    
  Feb 22, 2025 154   @ Drexel L 70-71 49%    
  Feb 27, 2025 215   Delaware W 85-76 78%    
  Mar 01, 2025 296   Campbell W 79-66 88%    
Projected Record 22 - 8 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 4.5 9.4 9.8 6.5 2.6 0.5 34.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 4.3 8.0 5.0 1.5 0.2 19.7 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.8 6.4 3.6 0.7 0.0 13.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 4.8 3.3 0.5 0.0 10.0 4th
5th 0.4 3.1 3.2 0.7 0.0 7.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 2.8 0.8 0.0 5.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.1 1.1 0.1 3.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 1.1 0.1 2.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.9 5.4 8.7 12.4 15.6 16.6 15.1 11.3 6.6 2.6 0.5 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 100.0% 2.6    2.6 0.0
16-2 97.7% 6.5    6.0 0.5 0.0
15-3 86.6% 9.8    7.3 2.3 0.2
14-4 62.2% 9.4    4.7 3.7 0.9 0.1 0.0
13-5 27.1% 4.5    1.1 1.9 1.1 0.3 0.0
12-6 5.4% 0.8    0.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 34.2% 34.2 22.2 8.7 2.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 54.7% 54.0% 0.7% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.6%
17-1 2.6% 47.0% 47.0% 11.8 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.1 1.4
16-2 6.6% 39.7% 39.7% 0.0% 12.1 0.3 1.8 0.5 0.0 4.0 0.0%
15-3 11.3% 35.5% 35.5% 12.4 0.1 2.3 1.5 0.1 0.0 7.3
14-4 15.1% 30.2% 30.2% 12.7 0.0 1.7 2.4 0.4 0.0 10.6
13-5 16.6% 25.9% 25.9% 13.0 0.0 0.9 2.5 0.9 0.0 12.3
12-6 15.6% 20.8% 20.8% 13.3 0.4 1.7 1.1 0.1 12.3
11-7 12.4% 15.5% 15.5% 13.5 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.1 10.5
10-8 8.7% 9.6% 9.6% 13.7 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 7.9
9-9 5.4% 7.4% 7.4% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 5.0
8-10 2.9% 5.2% 5.2% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.8
7-11 1.4% 3.8% 3.8% 14.8 0.0 0.0 1.3
6-12 0.6% 2.7% 2.7% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
5-13 0.2% 2.7% 2.7% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.2
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 23.7% 23.7% 0.0% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 8.2 10.0 4.1 0.4 0.0 76.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 10.4 1.4 6.1 0.7 2.7 8.1 11.5 48.0 21.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 2.1% 12.0 2.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%