College of Charleston
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.3 #152
Expected Predictive Rating +2.6 #122
Pace 70.8 #126
Improvement +2.2 #86

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #158 C- C C+ B+ C
Defense #151 C+ C D- A- B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #201 1.28 #65 +1.8 #118
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #151 0.72 #242 +0.1 #168
Three Pointers 41% #193 0.87 #340 -3.3 #295
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #218 -1.4 #217
Freethrows 0.36 #30 74% #121 0.27 #26
Second Chance 30.0% #202 1.04 #155 0.31 #178
Turnovers 15.9% #129
Total Offense +0.1 #158

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #338 1.21 #254 +3.4 #71
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #72 0.74 #155 -1.2 #280
Three Pointers 45% #74 0.95 #85 -0.4 #201
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #119 +1.8 #119
Freethrows 0.23 #18 69% #38 0.16 #14
Second Chance 30.6% #176 1.04 #201 0.32 #192
Turnovers 13.1% #343
Total Defense +0.2 #151

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.4% #224 -1.9% #45
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.4% #214 -1.7% #148
Possession Length 17.2 #167 17.2 #173
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #172 0.18 #234
Improvement -1.0 #240 +3.2 #35

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.2% 14.6% 12.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.7 14.0
.500 or above 99.1% 99.7% 96.4%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.1%
Conference Champion 31.8% 34.8% 16.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round14.2% 14.6% 12.3%
Second Round0.5% 0.4% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: N.C. A&T (Home) - 83.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 37 - 58 - 10
Quad 411 - 220 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 89 @Liberty L 75 - 90 20% -8  0 - 1 -6 +13 B A+ C- -21 D F F
 Sat, Nov 8 109 Florida Atlantic L 77 - 94 37% -15  0 - 2 -13 +9 C D A- -23 C F F
 Fri, Nov 14 359 South Carolina St. W 88 - 61 95% +14  1 - 2 +9 +11 C+ C+ A+ -1 C+ A- F+
 Mon, Nov 17 162 Drake L 62 - 71 64% -5  1 - 3 -12 -12 F D C- -1 C B- A
 Fri, Nov 21 173 Massachusetts W 69 - 65 55% -1  2 - 3 +3 -2 F+ A+ A- +5 C- C+ B+
 Sun, Nov 23 80 Yale L 63 - 74 26% -9  2 - 4 -4 -5 D- F C+ +0 C A+ D
 Mon, Nov 24 269 Evansville W 78 - 59 73% +12  3 - 4 +13 +4 C+ C- C +9 A A+ F
 Sun, Nov 30 74 Belmont L 73 - 96 33% -19  3 - 5 -18 -0 F B- A+ -18 F A F
 Wed, Dec 10 70 @South Florida L 75 - 81 16% -2  3 - 6 +5 +8 D B C -3 C+ C+ D
 Sun, Dec 14 157 Charlotte W 74 - 67 63% +3  4 - 6 +4 -1 B- C+ D +5 A- A+ D+
 Wed, Dec 17 344 The Citadel W 82 - 78 91% -2  5 - 6 -11 -1 C F C- -10 D C- D+
 Sun, Dec 21 193 @Northern Kentucky W 85 - 74 49% +4  6 - 6 +12 +8 B+ C+ C +3 C B A+
 Mon, Dec 29 206 Drexel W 72 - 63 72% -1  7 - 6 1 - 0 +3 +8 B+ A+ D+ -4 C B- D+
 Wed, Dec 31 192 @Elon W 85 - 81 48% +7  8 - 6 2 - 0 +5 +5 D B C -1 B+ B- F
 Mon, Jan 5 150 William & Mary W 88 - 79 60% +6  9 - 6 3 - 0 +7 +0 B F+ D- +5 A+ C F
 Sat, Jan 10 251 Hampton W 74 - 70 79% +5  10 - 6 4 - 0 -4 +7 C+ B- A- -11 B- F+ F
 Thu, Jan 15 155 @Towson L 52 - 61 40% -9  10 - 7 4 - 1 -6 -15 F C F +9 A+ D- C
 Sat, Jan 17 217 @Stony Brook L 106 - 112 2OT 52% -3  10 - 8 4 - 2 -6 +13 C- A A- -18 F C F
 Thu, Jan 22 212 Campbell W 87 - 83 73% +3  11 - 8 5 - 2 -2 +6 B C D -8 D+ F C
 Sat, Jan 24 192 Elon W 80 - 70 70% +10  12 - 8 6 - 2 +5 -1 C C- F +5 A+ C C
 Thu, Jan 29 126 @Hofstra W 66 - 64 32% -3  13 - 8 7 - 2 +7 -4 F B- C+ +11 A+ C+ D+
 Sat, Jan 31 256 @Northeastern W 89 - 84 61% -2  14 - 8 8 - 2 +3 +13 C- C A+ -11 D- C F
 Thu, Feb 5 281 N.C. A&T W 82 - 72 83%
 Mon, Feb 9 116 UNC Wilmington W 74 - 73 50%
 Thu, Feb 12 126 Hofstra W 74 - 73 55%
 Sat, Feb 14 212 @Campbell W 81 - 80 52%
 Thu, Feb 19 281 @N.C. A&T W 79 - 75 65%
 Sat, Feb 21 207 Monmouth W 75 - 69 72%
 Thu, Feb 26 251 @Hampton W 72 - 69 59%
 Sat, Feb 28 116 @UNC Wilmington L 70 - 76 30%
Totals 19 - 11 13 - 5 +0 +0 C- C C+ +0 C+ C D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.7 8.1 12.8 7.6 1.5 31.8 1st
2nd 0.2 5.8 18.3 18.2 7.0 0.5 50.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.5 6.1 2.7 0.1 10.5 3rd
4th 0.1 2.1 1.9 0.0 4.3 4th
5th 0.4 1.5 0.2 2.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 0.3 1.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.3 0.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.1 1.6 5.6 14.1 22.8 26.5 19.7 8.1 1.5 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 1.5    1.5
15-3 94.1% 7.6    6.2 1.4
14-4 64.6% 12.8    7.7 5.0 0.0
13-5 30.6% 8.1    2.7 4.6 0.8 0.0
12-6 7.3% 1.7    0.1 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 31.8% 31.8 18.3 11.7 1.5 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 1.5% 23.3% 23.3% 12.7 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.2
15-3 8.1% 21.5% 21.5% 13.2 0.2 1.1 0.5 0.0 6.4
14-4 19.7% 18.9% 18.9% 13.5 0.1 1.7 1.7 0.2 16.0
13-5 26.5% 14.4% 14.4% 13.9 0.0 1.0 2.2 0.6 0.0 22.7
12-6 22.8% 12.3% 12.3% 14.1 0.0 0.5 1.7 0.6 0.0 20.0
11-7 14.1% 10.0% 10.0% 14.3 0.1 0.8 0.5 0.0 12.7
10-8 5.6% 4.3% 4.3% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 5.4
9-9 1.6% 4.5% 4.5% 15.3 0.1 0.0 1.5
8-10 0.1% 0.1
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 14.2% 14.2% 0.0% 13.8 85.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 12.7 40.3 52.8 6.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%