College of Charleston
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.4 149
Results Rating +2.1 130
Pace 69.5 147
Improvement +3.7 56

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 210 C- C C B C-
Defense C+ 124 B- C+ D- A- B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 224 B 65% 50 +1.5 118
2 Pt. Jumpers 41% 131 D 34% 313 -0.1 186
Three Pointers 40% 198 F+ 29% 348 -3.6 305
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.4 237 C- -1.8 241
1st FG Attempt C- 0.98 249
Second Chance C- 29.0% 218 B- 1.09 92 C 0.32 162
Turnovers C 16.7% 169
Freethrows B 0.35 57 B- 75% 109 B 0.26 50
Total Offense C- -1.4 210

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B- 53% 106 B- 9.1% 78
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 21% 236 D+ 6.5% 273
Three Pointers D+ 80% 273 B 0.4% 59
Total C 54% 205 B- 5.0% 109

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% 333 D+ 61% 271 -3.0 84
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 84 B- 35% 76 +0.4 225
Three Pointers 45% 71 B 31% 72 +0.2 191
Shot Selection/Accuracy B -0.9 51 C+ -1.5 120
1st FG Attempt B- 0.97 99
Second Chance C 30.8% 203 B 0.95 62 C+ 0.29 119
Turnovers D- 14.1% 331
Freethrows A- 0.23 12 B- 70% 68 A- 0.16 12
Total Defense C+ +1.8 124

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 50% 221 C+ 12.1% 124
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 26% 201 B+ 8.9% 27
Three Pointers D+ 86% 256 B- 1.4% 82
Total C- 58% 229 C+ 6.5% 104

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.3 168 17.2 166
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 177 0.19 234
Improvement -2.4 #301 +6.0 #6

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 172 152 133
Results Rating Rank 166 134 111
Conference Record 12 - 6 13 - 5 14 - 4
Conference Finish 2 2 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 13
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12% 13% 11%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.5 13.8
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 8% 12% 1%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round12% 13% 11%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Hampton (Away) - 60.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 35 - 57 - 10
Quad 413 - 220 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 107 @Liberty L 75 - 90 26% -8  4% 0 - 1 D+ -8 B+ +9 B- A+ D+ F -18 D F F
 Sat, Nov 8 116 Florida Atlantic L 77 - 94 40% -15  0% 0 - 2 D- -14 B +7 C+ D B+ F -22 C- F F
 Fri, Nov 14 357 South Carolina St. W 88 - 61 95% +14  86% 1 - 2 B +9 B+ +9 C B- A+ C+ +1 B- B+ D-
 Mon, Nov 17 193 Drake L 62 - 71 70% -5  21% 1 - 3 D- -14 F -16 F D D+ B- +2 C B+ A
 Fri, Nov 21 185 Massachusetts W 69 - 65 58% -1  37% 2 - 3 C+ +2 D -6 F A+ A- A +9 C C+ B+
 Sun, Nov 23 85 Yale L 63 - 74 27% -9  0% 2 - 4 C- -4 F+ -9 F+ F C+ B +4 C- A+ D
 Mon, Nov 24 295 Evansville W 78 - 59 78% +12  93% 3 - 4 B +11 C -0 C+ C- C A+ +11 A A F
 Sun, Nov 30 67 Belmont L 73 - 96 31% -19  1% 3 - 5 F+ -18 D+ -3 F B A+ F -14 F A F
 Wed, Dec 10 58 @South Florida L 75 - 81 13% -2  27% 3 - 6 B- +6 B +6 D B C C +0 B- C+ D
 Sun, Dec 14 174 Charlotte W 74 - 67 66% +3  74% 4 - 6 C+ +3 D+ -4 B C+ D- A- +7 B+ A D
 Wed, Dec 17 348 The Citadel W 82 - 78 93% -2  42% 5 - 6 D- -12 D+ -4 C F C F+ -9 D- C D+
 Sun, Dec 21 195 @Northern Kentucky W 85 - 74 48% +4  86% 6 - 6 B+ +12 B +6 A- C+ C- B+ +6 C+ B A+
 Mon, Dec 29 221 Drexel W 72 - 63 74% -1  37% 7 - 6 1 - 0 C+ +3 B- +5 B+ A D C -1 C+ C+ D
 Wed, Dec 31 227 @Elon W 85 - 81 55% +7  89% 8 - 6 2 - 0 C+ +3 C +1 D- B C- C+ +2 B B F
 Mon, Jan 5 136 William & Mary W 88 - 79 57% +6  84% 9 - 6 3 - 0 B- +8 C- -2 B F F A- +8 A+ C F
 Sat, Jan 10 259 Hampton W 74 - 70 80% +5  95% 10 - 6 4 - 0 C- -5 B- +5 C+ B- A- F+ -9 B- F+ F
 Thu, Jan 15 170 @Towson L 52 - 61 42% -9  0% 10 - 7 4 - 1 D+ -7 F -18 F C- F A+ +11 A+ D- C-
 Sat, Jan 17 214 @Stony Brook L 106 - 112 2OT 52% -3  17% 10 - 8 4 - 2 D+ -6 A- +11 C A A F -16 F C+ F
 Thu, Jan 22 197 Campbell W 87 - 83 70% +3  54% 11 - 8 5 - 2 C -1 B- +4 B+ C+ D+ D -6 D F C
 Sat, Jan 24 227 Elon W 80 - 70 75% +10  98% 12 - 8 6 - 2 C+ +3 D -5 C D+ F A- +8 A C+ C+
 Thu, Jan 29 106 @Hofstra W 66 - 64 26% -3  18% 13 - 8 7 - 2 B +9 D -5 F B+ B- A+ +14 A+ C D+
 Sat, Jan 31 292 @Northeastern W 89 - 84 69% -2  21% 14 - 8 8 - 2 C +0 A- +11 C- C+ A+ F -10 F C F
 Thu, Feb 5 273 N.C. A&T W 78 - 62 82% +5  68% 15 - 8 9 - 2 B- +7 D+ -4 B- D F A +10 B B+ A+
 Mon, Feb 9 108 UNC Wilmington L 64 - 76 49% -9  0% 15 - 9 9 - 3 D- -11 F+ -9 D C F C- -3 B D+ F
 Thu, Feb 12 106 Hofstra L 62 - 66 47% -4  17% 15 - 10 9 - 4 C- -3 F -14 F+ F+ D+ A +11 A A+ C-
 Sun, Feb 15 197 @Campbell W 62 - 57 48% +2  66% 16 - 10 10 - 4 B- +6 D -5 F A+ F+ A+ +12 A A+ F
 Thu, Feb 19 273 @N.C. A&T W 74 - 61 64% +11  96% 17 - 10 11 - 4 B +10 B- +4 B- D- C+ A- +7 B D+ C
 Sat, Feb 21 199 Monmouth W 74 - 63 71% +4  82% 18 - 10 12 - 4 B- +6 C +1 D- B A+ B+ +6 C- A B-
 Thu, Feb 26 259 @Hampton W 70 - 67 60%
 Sat, Feb 28 108 @UNC Wilmington L 67 - 73 28%
Totals 19 - 11 13 - 5 +0 C- -1 A+ C- C- C+ +2 F+ B- B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- B D F+ C- 37% 41% 40% C- C- C- B- C C B B- B C+ D+ B- B C+ 32% 24% 45% B B- C B C+ D- A- B- A-
1.07 65% 34% 29% -2 0 0.98 29% 1.1 .32 17% .35 75% .26 1.06 61% 35% 31% -1 -1 0.97 31% 0.9 .29 14% .23 70% .24
Nov
7		 Liberty B+ D A A- B- 35% 22% 43% C- B- B A+ A+ D+ A+ F B+ F C- F F D- 44% 8% 48% B- D F F F F D+ D+ D
1.20 50% 50% 40% +4 0 1.09 36% 1.5 .55 19% .34 65% .22 1.44 64% 50% 46% +12 +2 1.30 32% 1.3 .42 8% .30 71% .21
Nov
8		 Florida Atlantic B C- D- B C+ 43% 20% 37% C- C+ A F D B+ A+ A+ A+ F D F B C- 35% 15% 50% C- C- F F F F D- F+ F
1.14 55% 30% 37% -2 0 1.00 36% 0.5 .19 13% .41 88% .36 1.39 63% 63% 30% +2 +1 1.07 46% 1.3 .62 10% .36 77% .28
Nov
14		 South Carolina St. B+ A+ F F C 48% 14% 38% C C A F+ B- A+ A+ D A C+ F+ A+ F C- 17% 52% 31% A+ B- F A+ B+ D- F A+ C-
1.31 92% 29% 16% +4 +2 1.14 47% 1.1 .50 10% .51 68% .35 0.91 63% 20% 47% -3 -6 0.85 38% 0.6 .22 18% .49 44% .22
Nov
17		 Drake F A+ F F F+ 13% 44% 42% F F B F D D+ B- F+ C B- D A+ D+ C 26% 21% 53% C+ C C- A+ B+ A B+ A+ A
0.90 100% 26% 27% -4 -5 0.85 36% 0.6 .20 16% .33 63% .21 1.03 64% 27% 36% +1 -1 1.02 27% 0.8 .22 19% .25 57% .14
Nov
21		 Massachusetts D B+ B F F 40% 15% 45% B- F F A+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+ A B+ F B+ C 35% 22% 43% C+ C C- B- C+ B+ A A+ A+
1.02 68% 43% 14% -8 +1 0.87 11% 4.3 .48 13% .49 83% .41 0.96 50% 70% 30% +2 0 1.04 32% 1.1 .35 22% .25 46% .11
Nov
23		 Yale F+ C+ F F F 42% 17% 42% B F+ C F F C+ A+ D- A+ B B C- F D+ 39% 29% 33% A- C- B+ A+ A+ D C+ A+ A-
0.97 60% 25% 25% -7 +1 0.90 29% 0.5 .14 14% .43 67% .29 1.14 53% 43% 50% +7 -1 1.14 29% 0.9 .26 12% .32 61% .19
Nov
24		 Evansville C D C+ A C+ 31% 20% 49% C C+ D B C- C A B- A A+ B+ C+ A+ A+ 47% 21% 32% F A A+ F A F D+ C D+
1.11 53% 40% 42% +5 -1 1.10 27% 1.1 .30 17% .36 76% .27 0.84 52% 36% 18% -11 +1 0.81 6% 2.0 .11 14% .30 72% .22
Nov
30		 Belmont D+ F F F F 13% 17% 69% D F C+ A- B A+ A+ D+ A+ F F F F F 32% 20% 48% A F C A+ A F C+ A+ B+
1.03 43% 22% 25% -14 -1 0.71 33% 1.2 .39 11% .48 73% .35 1.36 83% 55% 48% +22 0 1.45 28% 0.9 .24 8% .29 58% .17
Dec
10		 South Florida B F+ F C- F+ 42% 12% 46% A D A D+ B C A+ A+ A+ C D+ F A+ B- 44% 8% 48% C B- F A C+ D C B C+
1.09 45% 17% 33% -8 +1 0.88 40% 0.9 .35 19% .45 80% .36 1.18 61% 50% 24% -5 +2 0.96 46% 1.0 .43 13% .38 70% .27
Dec
14		 Charlotte D+ A A- D- B 40% 26% 34% C- B D A+ C+ D- D F F+ A- F C- A+ B+ 28% 16% 56% B+ B+ A- A+ A D A F B-
1.09 70% 46% 29% +5 -1 1.10 26% 1.4 .35 18% .29 63% .18 0.98 79% 38% 25% -2 0 0.98 27% 0.7 .18 16% .25 86% .21
Dec
17		 The Citadel D+ A+ C+ F+ C 33% 12% 55% C- C F A+ F C A+ A- A+ F+ B B+ F F+ 27% 17% 56% C+ D- C- C+ C D+ A+ A A
1.14 86% 40% 30% +7 +1 1.17 10% 1.3 .14 15% .67 76% .51 1.08 50% 30% 39% +1 0 1.03 29% 0.9 .26 17% .17 60% .10
Dec
21		 Northern Kentucky B C+ A+ C- A- 43% 17% 39% C+ A- C- B C+ C- A+ C- A+ B+ B- D- B- C+ 35% 14% 51% C C+ F+ A+ B A+ C+ F D
1.15 60% 88% 33% +9 +1 1.22 32% 1.2 .39 20% .49 69% .34 1.00 56% 43% 31% -3 +1 0.98 36% 0.7 .26 23% .28 88% .25
Dec
29		 Drexel B- A+ C F+ A 33% 28% 39% D B+ C+ A+ A D C F F+ C C+ A+ F C 20% 25% 55% A C+ C B C+ D D D+ D
1.15 87% 38% 28% +6 -1 1.11 33% 1.4 .47 18% .31 56% .17 1.01 56% 18% 42% +1 -2 1.00 29% 0.8 .24 18% .31 69% .21
Dec
31		 Elon C F A C- F+ 43% 16% 41% B D- C A B C- A+ A+ A+ C+ C- F A+ B+ 45% 10% 45% C- B A+ F B F C+ A- B-
1.15 43% 50% 35% -4 +1 0.96 33% 1.4 .45 16% .47 90% .42 1.10 59% 50% 26% -4 +2 0.98 24% 1.2 .29 8% .30 65% .19
Jan
5		 William & Mary C- A+ F A- A- 25% 26% 49% F B D- F F F A+ A A+ A- F A+ A+ A+ 20% 31% 49% A+ A+ C+ D C F C D- C-
1.07 92% 21% 38% +7 -2 1.13 24% 0.8 .18 23% .46 79% .36 0.96 85% 5% 22% -14 -3 0.69 25% 1.2 .31 7% .33 80% .26
Jan
10		 Hampton B- A+ B- F+ B- 32% 24% 44% D- C+ F A+ B- A- A+ B+ A+ F+ D D- A+ C 25% 37% 37% A B- F B- F+ F A C+ A
1.18 85% 40% 28% +5 -1 1.10 17% 2.0 .35 13% .55 73% .40 1.11 62% 42% 21% -5 -3 0.86 45% 0.9 .39 13% .25 71% .18
Jan
15		 Towson F F F F+ F 36% 14% 50% B- F B+ F C- F F D F A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ 29% 25% 46% C- A+ A- F D- C- D+ F F
0.77 39% 14% 28% -15 +1 0.74 34% 0.7 .25 22% .17 67% .11 0.90 40% 38% 17% -17 -1 0.65 30% 1.3 .38 16% .30 88% .26
Jan
17		 Stony Brook A- D+ F A C- 46% 19% 35% B- C D- A+ A A A+ A+ A+ F D F F+ F 35% 12% 53% D+ F A F C+ F F A F
1.23 55% 25% 41% 0 +1 1.03 26% 1.6 .43 12% .47 83% .39 1.30 61% 75% 40% +10 +1 1.24 20% 1.2 .24 9% .40 65% .26
Jan
22		 Campbell B- A+ B- A- A 44% 35% 21% F+ B+ B- C- C+ D+ A+ A- A+ D D- B- F F 20% 30% 50% A+ D C- F F C A+ B+ A+
1.20 76% 41% 40% +11 -2 1.21 35% 1.1 .38 19% .49 79% .39 1.14 64% 31% 41% +4 -2 1.06 34% 1.8 .60 18% .20 67% .13
Jan
24		 Elon D A+ F F C+ 30% 28% 42% D- C B- F D+ F A+ F A A- F+ F A+ A 27% 23% 50% A+ A B+ D C+ C+ C+ C- C
1.11 100% 21% 29% +5 -2 1.08 38% 0.9 .34 22% .46 62% .29 0.97 67% 54% 18% -6 -1 0.88 28% 1.1 .31 17% .30 72% .22
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
29		 Hofstra D F B F F 47% 24% 29% B F A- C+ B+ B- A- F C A+ A A+ A A+ 32% 23% 45% C- A+ F A C D+ A+ A+ A+
0.96 42% 42% 13% -16 0 0.71 38% 1.1 .40 13% .37 59% .22 0.94 44% 23% 28% -12 -1 0.77 41% 0.9 .35 15% .09 40% .03
Jan
31		 Northeastern A- B+ A+ F D 58% 13% 28% A- C- D A C+ A+ A- B A F F C+ F F 40% 23% 37% B F F+ A C F A+ A+ A+
1.29 68% 57% 20% +2 +2 1.11 27% 1.2 .33 7% .41 77% .31 1.22 71% 36% 41% +8 0 1.18 33% 0.8 .28 7% .08 40% .03
Feb
5		 N.C. A&T D+ A+ C+ F B 35% 31% 33% F+ B- D C- D F F+ B- D- A D- A+ C+ B 23% 30% 47% B+ B C- A+ B+ A+ B- F C-
1.10 84% 41% 28% +7 -2 1.13 23% 1.0 .23 20% .25 71% .18 0.87 64% 21% 32% -5 -2 0.87 31% 0.8 .26 25% .34 83% .28
Feb
9		 UNC Wilmington F+ C- A- F D+ 27% 33% 40% D- D D A C F A+ A A+ C- F A+ C- B- 23% 37% 40% A+ B B F D+ F A+ C- A
0.94 58% 47% 22% -4 -2 0.89 21% 1.3 .27 19% .42 83% .35 1.12 77% 14% 35% -4 -3 0.88 30% 1.3 .40 7% .27 71% .19
Feb
12		 Hofstra F F F C- F+ 23% 23% 54% D+ F+ F B F+ D+ C+ A+ A- A D B A+ A 22% 25% 53% B A B- A+ A+ C- F B- F
0.88 42% 17% 32% -10 -1 0.79 18% 1.1 .20 16% .32 84% .27 0.94 64% 31% 26% -7 -2 0.84 31% 0.5 .14 16% .44 73% .32
Feb
15		 Campbell D B+ F D- F 41% 30% 28% D F C+ A+ A+ F+ F A+ F A+ D- A+ A+ A+ 54% 15% 31% D+ A F A+ A+ F A+ F A+
1.02 68% 7% 31% -7 -1 0.87 32% 1.7 .55 21% .17 88% .15 0.94 64% 0% 13% -12 +2 0.81 43% 0.3 .14 12% .19 90% .17
Feb
19		 N.C. A&T B- A+ F A+ B+ 31% 29% 40% F+ B- B F D- C+ D- B- D A- A- C+ B+ A- 37% 17% 46% F+ B B- F D+ C A- A A
1.17 81% 20% 43% +7 -2 1.13 32% 0.6 .19 13% .25 71% .18 0.96 47% 38% 29% -8 0 0.87 28% 1.3 .36 19% .29 67% .19
Feb
21		 Monmouth C C+ D- F F+ 53% 20% 27% B- D- F+ A+ B A+ A D- B+ B+ C+ F C+ D 25% 33% 41% A C- A+ B+ A B- A+ D A+
1.10 59% 30% 21% -6 +1 0.92 24% 1.6 .38 12% .37 68% .25 0.94 54% 47% 33% +2 -3 1.00 21% 0.9 .18 19% .17 78% .13



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.5 7.4 7.9 1st
2nd 29.1 53.4 9.6 92.1 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 29.1 53.8 17.1 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 43.6% 7.4    0.8 6.6
13-5 0.9% 0.5    0.5
12-6 0.0%
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 7.9% 7.9 0.8 7.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 17.1% 16.0% 16.0% 13.2 0.3 1.7 0.7 0.0 14.3
13-5 53.8% 12.0% 12.0% 13.7 0.1 2.5 3.3 0.5 0.0 47.4
12-6 29.1% 9.9% 9.9% 14.0 0.0 0.6 1.7 0.5 0.0 26.2
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 12.1% 12.1% 0.0% 13.6 87.9 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.7% 100.0% 13.2 10.3 64.1 25.4 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 5.1%
Lose Out 12.8%