Duquesne
Atlantic 10
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +3.3 #113
Expected Predictive Rating -0.1 #166
Pace 74.8 #40
Improvement +2.7 #71

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #125 B- C D+ B- B+
Defense #124 C+ B- C D C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #98 1.23 #95 +3.3 #71
2 Pt. Jumpers 10% #348 0.71 #251 -4.3 #352
Three Pointers 49% #33 1.04 #146 +4.4 #46
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #75 +3.4 #75
Freethrows 0.34 #50 72% #212 0.25 #81
Second Chance 30.4% #193 1.01 #204 0.31 #194
Turnovers 18.3% #283
Total Offense +1.7 #125

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #183 1.15 #165 +0.1 #173
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #75 0.75 #162 -1.2 #278
Three Pointers 37% #280 0.99 #133 +2.4 #92
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #133 +1.3 #132
Freethrows 0.35 #313 73% #220 0.26 #320
Second Chance 26.3% #47 1.06 #238 0.28 #92
Turnovers 16.6% #185
Total Defense +1.6 #124

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.2% #19 -0.8% #102
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.5% #116 -1.8% #144
Possession Length 15.7 #43 17.2 #174
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 #43 0.22 #330
Improvement +1.0 #129 +1.7 #87

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.2% 1.4% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.3 13.1
.500 or above 40.5% 63.9% 31.5%
.500 or above in Conference 38.2% 62.0% 29.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round1.2% 1.4% 1.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: George Mason (Away) - 27.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 22 - 42 - 9
Quad 34 - 57 - 14
Quad 48 - 215 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 349 Niagara W 83 - 63 95% +17  1 - 0 +5 +2 A+ C- F +2 B- B A-
 Fri, Nov 7 276 Sacred Heart W 92 - 80 88% +7  2 - 0 +3 +7 F B+ A -5 B C F+
 Tue, Nov 11 208 Queens W 87 - 81 OT 81% +9  3 - 0 +0 -9 D+ F+ D- +8 B A+ B-
 Sat, Nov 15 32 @Villanova L 77 - 87 10% -6  3 - 1 +7 +13 A+ D+ F -5 A+ F B+
 Wed, Nov 19 318 Loyola Maryland W 92 - 78 92% +12  4 - 1 +1 +6 B- A F -6 D- B- D
 Sat, Nov 22 256 Northeastern L 86 - 93 80% -3  4 - 2 -12 -7 C+ F F -4 F A- A+
 Tue, Dec 2 150 William & Mary L 79 - 83 71% -8  4 - 3 -6 -3 D A+ F -3 F A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 217 Stony Brook W 84 - 75 82% +8  5 - 3 +3 +9 A F+ C- -7 B- D+ F
 Wed, Dec 10 62 @Boise St. L 64 - 86 21% -12  5 - 4 -10 -3 D- C+ C+ -7 C C- F+
 Sat, Dec 13 71 @Nevada L 75 - 78 23% -5  5 - 5 +8 +10 C- A- D+ -2 A D- D+
 Mon, Dec 22 345 Canisius W 103 - 59 94% +22  6 - 5 +29 +21 A+ C+ B- +7 C- C A+
 Tue, Dec 30 117 @Davidson W 89 - 83 2OT 39% -3  7 - 5 1 - 0 +12 +11 C B B+ +1 A+ A- F
 Sat, Jan 3 50 Virginia Commonwealth L 80 - 93 34% -7  7 - 6 1 - 1 -6 +7 A+ F+ C- -13 C- F B-
 Wed, Jan 7 132 @Saint Joseph's L 90 - 97 OT 44% +0  7 - 7 1 - 2 -2 +11 A- B- D -12 F C+ D-
 Tue, Jan 13 88 Dayton L 65 - 71 50% -5  7 - 8 1 - 3 -3 +2 C- F A -5 C- A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 17 169 @Fordham W 74 - 63 54% +6  8 - 8 2 - 3 +13 +3 B D+ F+ +10 A+ B- C
 Tue, Jan 20 24 Saint Louis L 77 - 81 17% -5  8 - 9 2 - 4 +9 +4 D+ A+ D +6 A D+ A
 Sat, Jan 24 279 @Loyola Chicago W 71 - 59 75% +4  9 - 9 3 - 4 +8 -2 C+ F D- +11 A B D
 Wed, Jan 28 141 St. Bonaventure L 79 - 87 69% +2  9 - 10 3 - 5 -10 +4 B+ F A- -13 F A- F
 Sun, Feb 1 119 Rhode Island W 76 - 61 63% +8  10 - 10 4 - 5 +15 +11 A- C+ C- +5 B- B+ C
 Wed, Feb 4 84 @George Mason L 71 - 77 28%
 Sat, Feb 7 79 George Washington L 82 - 83 48%
 Sat, Feb 14 141 @St. Bonaventure L 77 - 78 46%
 Wed, Feb 18 214 La Salle W 78 - 69 81%
 Sat, Feb 21 88 @Dayton L 72 - 78 29%
 Wed, Feb 25 117 Davidson W 74 - 71 61%
 Sat, Feb 28 24 @Saint Louis L 73 - 89 7%
 Wed, Mar 4 119 @Rhode Island L 72 - 75 40%
 Sat, Mar 7 136 Richmond W 80 - 75 67%
Totals 14 - 15 8 - 10 +3 +2 B- C D+ +2 C+ B- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.1 3rd
4th 0.2 2.3 2.4 0.3 0.0 5.2 4th
5th 0.0 2.1 5.2 1.1 0.0 8.3 5th
6th 0.9 7.3 3.5 0.1 11.8 6th
7th 0.1 5.6 8.3 0.7 14.7 7th
8th 0.0 2.3 11.5 3.2 0.1 17.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 9.6 7.6 0.3 18.4 9th
10th 0.2 4.1 6.8 0.7 11.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.9 4.1 1.6 0.0 6.6 11th
12th 0.1 1.5 1.6 0.1 3.2 12th
13th 0.4 1.0 0.2 1.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.5 3.6 10.9 20.4 26.4 21.4 11.8 4.2 0.8 0.1 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.1% 0.0 0.1
12-6 0.8% 6.8% 6.8% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.8
11-7 4.2% 3.3% 3.3% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.0
10-8 11.8% 2.5% 2.5% 12.1 0.0 0.3 0.0 11.5
9-9 21.4% 1.2% 1.2% 12.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 21.1
8-10 26.4% 0.9% 0.9% 13.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 26.1
7-11 20.4% 0.8% 0.8% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 20.3
6-12 10.9% 0.4% 0.4% 15.0 0.0 10.9
5-13 3.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.6
4-14 0.5% 0.5
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 12.8 98.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%