Duquesne
Atlantic 10
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +3.5 110
Results Rating +2.9 117
Pace 73.4 59
Improvement +1.8 115

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 121 B- C C- B B+
Defense C+ 125 C+ C+ C+ D+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 80 B- 62% 91 +3.6 59
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 328 D 34% 299 -4.1 348
Three Pointers 47% 60 C 34% 168 +3.1 79
Shot Selection/Accuracy B+ +1.5 21 C+ +1.1 127
1st FG Attempt B- 1.07 95
Second Chance C 30.1% 191 C 1.03 182 C 0.31 181
Turnovers C- 17.7% 238
Freethrows B+ 0.36 37 C 72% 195 B 0.26 54
Total Offense C+ +1.7 121

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 50% 154 C 11.2% 189
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 30% 115 F 10.8% 357
Three Pointers C+ 86% 158 D 1.6% 324
Total B- 61% 73 D+ 6.6% 291

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 194 C+ 57% 142 -0.7 147
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 66 C 38% 169 +1.3 295
Three Pointers 38% 273 C 34% 163 -1.9 107
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.5 94 C+ -0.8 146
1st FG Attempt C+ 0.99 131
Second Chance C+ 28.6% 106 C+ 1.01 147 C+ 0.29 108
Turnovers C+ 17.8% 122
Freethrows D+ 0.34 294 C 72% 158 D+ 0.25 276
Total Defense C+ +1.8 125

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 47% 147 C- 10.0% 208
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 29% 249 D+ 3.6% 256
Three Pointers C 84% 169 C- 0.7% 203
Total C+ 54% 141 C- 5.0% 226

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.0 54 17.5 219
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 57 0.21 298
Improvement +0.0 #186 +1.8 #91

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 134 112 97
Results Rating Rank 140 116 96
Conference Record 8 - 10 10 - 8 11 - 7
Conference Finish 8 5 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 2% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.4 12.3 12.6
.500 or above 93% 100% 81%
.500 or above in Conference 92% 100% 80%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round2% 2% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Davidson (Home) - 62.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 23 - 33 - 8
Quad 36 - 48 - 13
Quad 48 - 117 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 336 Niagara W 83 - 63 95% +17  100% 1 - 0 B- +5 C -0 A+ C- F B+ +5 B+ B A-
 Fri, Nov 7 286 Sacred Heart W 92 - 80 90% +7  91% 2 - 0 C +2 B- +4 F B+ A C- -3 B C+ F+
 Tue, Nov 11 212 Queens W 87 - 81 OT 81% +9  93% 3 - 0 C +0 F -13 D F F+ A+ +12 B+ A+ B+
 Sat, Nov 15 35 @Villanova L 77 - 87 10% -6  28% 3 - 1 B- +7 A- +10 A+ D F+ C- -3 A+ F A
 Wed, Nov 19 315 Loyola Maryland W 92 - 78 92% +12  99% 4 - 1 C +2 B- +4 B A+ F C- -3 D- C+ D+
 Sat, Nov 22 292 Northeastern L 86 - 93 85% -3  2% 4 - 2 F+ -15 F -10 C+ F F D+ -3 F A- A+
 Tue, Dec 2 136 William & Mary L 79 - 83 68% -8  8% 4 - 3 D+ -5 D -5 D A+ F C +0 F A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 214 Stony Brook W 84 - 75 82% +8  94% 5 - 3 C+ +3 B+ +7 A+ F+ C D+ -4 B D+ F
 Wed, Dec 10 64 @Boise St. L 64 - 86 22% -12  0% 5 - 4 D -10 D- -7 F+ C+ C C- -3 C D F+
 Sat, Dec 13 78 @Nevada L 75 - 78 25% -5  21% 5 - 5 B- +8 B +7 C- A- D C+ +1 A- D- D+
 Mon, Dec 22 344 Canisius W 103 - 59 95% +22  97% 6 - 5 A+ +29 A+ +19 A+ B- B- A- +8 C- C A+
 Tue, Dec 30 113 @Davidson W 89 - 83 2OT 40% -3  12% 7 - 5 1 - 0 B+ +12 B+ +8 C B- B+ B +4 A A F
 Sat, Jan 3 46 Virginia Commonwealth L 80 - 93 32% -7  7% 7 - 6 1 - 1 C- -5 B +6 A+ F+ C- F -10 C- F B-
 Wed, Jan 7 133 @Saint Joseph's L 90 - 97 OT 44% +0  38% 7 - 7 1 - 2 C- -2 B+ +9 A B D F -10 F C+ F+
 Tue, Jan 13 87 Dayton L 65 - 71 49% -5  8% 7 - 8 1 - 3 C- -2 C- -2 C F B+ C -1 C- A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 17 155 @Fordham W 74 - 63 51% +6  97% 8 - 8 2 - 3 B+ +14 C+ +3 B D+ D A+ +11 A B C+
 Tue, Jan 20 23 Saint Louis L 77 - 81 17% -5  11% 8 - 9 2 - 4 B +9 C+ +2 D A+ D A- +8 A D+ A-
 Sat, Jan 24 282 @Loyola Chicago W 71 - 59 76% +4  79% 9 - 9 3 - 4 B +8 D+ -4 C+ F+ D+ A+ +12 A+ B D
 Wed, Jan 28 142 St. Bonaventure L 79 - 87 70% +2  64% 9 - 10 3 - 5 D -10 C +0 B+ F B+ F -10 F A F
 Sun, Feb 1 124 Rhode Island W 76 - 61 65% +8  93% 10 - 10 4 - 5 A- +15 B+ +8 A B- C A- +7 B- B+ C+
 Wed, Feb 4 105 @George Mason W 71 - 65 35% +0  49% 11 - 10 5 - 5 B+ +13 B- +5 D+ A+ B A +9 D+ A A+
 Sat, Feb 7 82 George Washington W 88 - 86 48% -0  46% 12 - 10 6 - 5 B- +6 A +14 B+ C- A+ F+ -8 D D+ A+
 Sat, Feb 14 142 @St. Bonaventure W 78 - 73 48% +7  89% 13 - 10 7 - 5 B +9 C+ +3 C- F+ A+ B+ +6 B+ C B+
 Wed, Feb 18 200 La Salle W 62 - 61 80% +5  73% 14 - 10 8 - 5 C- -4 F -13 C F F A +9 B- B A+
 Sat, Feb 21 87 @Dayton L 66 - 78 28% -6  5% 14 - 11 8 - 6 C- -2 C+ +3 D- A B- D -6 B F F
 Wed, Feb 25 113 Davidson W 73 - 70 63%
 Sat, Feb 28 23 @Saint Louis L 74 - 90 7%
 Wed, Mar 4 124 @Rhode Island L 72 - 74 42%
 Sat, Mar 7 130 Richmond W 81 - 76 66%
Totals 16 - 13 10 - 8 +3 C+ +2 D C+ B+ C+ +2 C C B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ B- D C C+ 42% 23% 47% B+ B- C C C C- B+ C B C+ C+ C C C+ 38% 24% 38% B- C+ C+ C+ C+ C+ D+ C D+
1.11 62% 34% 34% +1 +1 1.07 30% 1.0 .31 18% .36 72% .26 1.06 57% 38% 34% -1 0 0.99 29% 1.0 .29 18% .34 72% .26
Nov
3		 Niagara C A+ F A A+ 39% 12% 49% B A+ D- A C- F D- C D- B+ D+ D+ A+ B+ 47% 23% 30% B- B+ B- A- B A- F F+ F
1.17 84% 17% 42% +13 +1 1.31 27% 1.3 .35 24% .24 77% .19 0.89 60% 40% 15% -7 0 0.88 19% 0.7 .13 23% .49 78% .38
Nov
7		 Sacred Heart B- B+ A+ F F 42% 5% 53% B+ F B+ B- B+ A A+ D- A+ C- F A+ A B+ 28% 14% 58% C- B F A+ C+ F+ F A+ F
1.24 70% 67% 17% -7 +2 0.93 38% 1.2 .44 9% .58 67% .39 1.08 75% 0% 28% -6 0 0.91 35% 0.7 .26 15% .73 67% .49
Nov
11		 Queens F A B- F D- 52% 12% 37% B+ D F D+ F F+ A F C- A+ A D+ C B+ 32% 21% 47% A- B+ C A+ A+ B+ F+ C+ F+
1.01 71% 43% 18% -1 +2 1.03 22% 1.0 .22 19% .43 57% .24 0.94 50% 42% 33% -2 -1 0.96 30% 0.4 .13 19% .39 74% .29
Nov
15		 Villanova A- F+ A+ A+ A+ 41% 13% 46% A A+ A- F D F+ A+ D- A+ C- C A+ C+ A+ 45% 17% 38% D+ A+ F C+ F A F D F
1.11 47% 67% 52% +12 +1 1.28 38% 0.6 .22 24% .38 65% .25 1.25 62% 0% 33% -5 +1 0.94 55% 1.0 .55 19% .58 76% .44
Nov
19		 Loyola Maryland B- A+ F C+ B 41% 12% 47% B B B+ A A+ F A+ C+ A+ C- D- A B- D 49% 8% 43% F D- A F C+ D+ F+ A+ D+
1.23 80% 17% 35% +7 +1 1.18 39% 1.4 .55 23% .45 77% .35 1.04 65% 25% 30% 0 +2 1.08 18% 1.3 .24 16% .34 62% .21
Nov
22		 Northeastern F C- A- A C- 71% 7% 22% A+ C+ F C F F B D- C+ D+ F F A+ F 53% 16% 31% D- F D+ A+ A- A+ F F F
1.02 59% 50% 42% +4 +4 1.18 16% 1.0 .16 22% .38 68% .26 1.10 81% 50% 25% +10 +2 1.25 29% 0.7 .19 25% .47 80% .38
Dec
2		 William & Mary D C A+ F F+ 40% 4% 56% A- D A A+ A+ F A+ C A+ C D+ A+ F F 37% 8% 55% C- F A+ A+ A+ A+ A F B+
1.03 60% 50% 25% -6 +2 0.94 39% 1.5 .61 27% .43 71% .30 1.08 63% 25% 50% +14 +2 1.33 15% 0.8 .11 23% .24 86% .20
Dec
6		 Stony Brook B+ D+ A+ A+ A+ 38% 11% 51% B+ A+ B+ F F+ C A+ C A+ D+ A+ F B B+ 36% 13% 52% D+ B D C D+ F B- F+ C+
1.22 56% 60% 46% +10 +1 1.26 38% 0.5 .18 16% .45 73% .33 1.09 35% 86% 31% -5 +1 0.95 32% 0.9 .29 12% .23 79% .18
Dec
10		 Boise St. D- A- F F F 38% 16% 45% B+ F+ D A+ C+ C B F C C- A+ A+ F D+ 35% 31% 35% A+ C A F D F+ B F C-
0.91 67% 22% 20% -9 +1 0.85 17% 1.5 .25 16% .30 61% .18 1.22 44% 25% 61% +5 -2 1.10 26% 1.5 .39 11% .32 90% .29
Dec
13		 Nevada B D A D- D 42% 4% 54% A C- A C- A- D B A+ A+ C+ A+ D D+ A- 43% 40% 17% A A- C+ F D- D+ F C+ F
1.11 48% 50% 30% -7 +2 0.92 38% 1.1 .43 19% .37 90% .33 1.16 40% 42% 38% -5 -2 0.87 33% 1.3 .44 12% .54 75% .40
Dec
22		 Canisius A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 38% 4% 58% A- A+ D- A+ B- B- D B+ C- A- C+ C- D+ F+ 22% 47% 31% A+ C- A F C A+ F+ A+ C
1.41 76% 100% 47% +20 +2 1.47 25% 1.4 .36 14% .27 76% .21 0.81 50% 38% 36% -1 -5 0.91 18% 1.3 .24 29% .35 56% .19
Dec
30		 Davidson B+ F F A+ C- 31% 17% 52% B- C B- B- B- B+ C+ A+ A- B C+ A+ A A+ 41% 15% 44% D- A A+ C- A F A F B-
1.14 44% 10% 43% -2 0 0.98 33% 1.1 .35 15% .32 81% .26 1.06 56% 30% 28% -6 +1 0.91 20% 1.1 .22 8% .21 80% .17
Jan
3		 Virginia Commonwealth B A+ A+ C- A+ 50% 4% 46% A+ A+ F+ D- F+ C- A+ F A F F+ A- C C- 42% 13% 44% C C- C F F B- F D+ F
1.12 79% 50% 32% +10 +3 1.27 21% 0.8 .17 18% .43 64% .27 1.30 68% 33% 35% +4 +1 1.13 34% 1.8 .62 17% .52 77% .40
Jan
7		 Saint Joseph's B+ B A+ C- A 35% 18% 47% B A B+ C B D C A+ B+ F C- F D F 41% 14% 45% C- F D A- C+ F+ F C- F
1.12 62% 64% 32% +5 0 1.12 37% 1.0 .37 17% .23 87% .20 1.21 61% 75% 36% +8 +1 1.20 36% 0.8 .31 14% .42 76% .32
Jan
13		 Dayton C- C B- D- D+ 39% 11% 50% A C D F F B+ A+ C+ A+ C B A+ F C- 45% 15% 40% C C- A A+ A+ D+ F F+ F
1.01 56% 40% 30% -3 +1 0.98 24% 0.5 .12 19% .42 73% .31 1.10 56% 17% 44% +2 +1 1.08 21% 0.8 .17 16% .51 82% .42
Jan
17		 Fordham C+ C F A+ B 33% 18% 49% B B D- B+ D+ D A+ C- A+ A+ B+ F A+ A+ 33% 20% 46% C+ A D- A+ B C+ C- A+ C+
1.04 56% 22% 42% +2 0 1.06 19% 1.2 .23 18% .47 67% .31 0.89 50% 55% 16% -12 0 0.78 39% 0.7 .29 18% .26 60% .16
Jan
20		 Saint Louis C+ C- F F D- 39% 14% 46% B+ D A+ A A+ D A+ C+ A+ A- A D+ F A 55% 14% 31% B- A A- F D+ A- F A D-
1.00 50% 25% 23% -13 +1 0.79 37% 1.1 .39 18% .49 74% .37 1.05 48% 43% 47% +1 +2 1.08 26% 1.4 .38 21% .41 64% .26
Jan
24		 Loyola Chicago D+ C F B+ C 43% 15% 43% B+ C+ F B+ F+ D+ A F B A+ D A+ A+ A+ 33% 17% 50% B+ A+ A+ F B D D+ F+ D
1.05 55% 29% 40% +1 +1 1.06 16% 1.2 .19 15% .38 68% .26 0.87 63% 25% 21% -11 0 0.81 18% 1.3 .24 16% .33 74% .25
Jan
28		 St. Bonaventure C F A+ A+ B 40% 12% 48% B B+ C F F B+ A F D+ F B F F F 43% 29% 29% C F A+ F A F F D- F
1.13 45% 67% 46% +7 +1 1.18 30% 0.5 .14 14% .37 55% .20 1.24 52% 64% 50% +12 -1 1.24 16% 1.5 .24 11% .42 81% .34
Feb
1		 Rhode Island B+ C- F A+ A- 41% 2% 56% A A B C B- C A- A+ A+ A- C- A+ D C+ 29% 22% 49% A B- A- C+ B+ C+ C+ A+ A+
1.17 53% 0% 43% +5 +3 1.17 36% 1.0 .36 22% .43 91% .39 0.94 62% 20% 36% -1 -1 0.98 26% 0.9 .24 20% .35 50% .17
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 George Mason B- D- F B D 39% 20% 41% B D+ B A+ A+ B A+ B A+ A F A+ F+ D 30% 30% 39% A D+ C+ A+ A A+ A- A+ A+
1.10 50% 22% 37% -4 0 0.93 32% 1.4 .45 14% .38 76% .29 1.01 86% 21% 39% +6 -2 1.11 30% 0.7 .20 26% .32 53% .17
Feb
7		 George Washington A B C- B B 51% 18% 31% B+ B+ B+ F C- A+ A+ A- A+ F+ D A+ F D- 37% 8% 55% B- D F A+ D+ A+ D- F F
1.29 65% 33% 38% +5 +1 1.14 34% 0.8 .28 6% .47 77% .36 1.26 67% 25% 41% +8 +2 1.20 54% 0.8 .43 23% .36 89% .33
Feb
14		 St. Bonaventure C+ C F C+ C- 39% 12% 49% B C- F+ D+ F+ A+ D+ F D- B+ C- C- A+ B 41% 43% 16% A+ B+ B D- C B+ F B F
1.13 59% 29% 36% 0 +1 1.05 21% 1.0 .21 9% .25 69% .17 1.06 60% 43% 25% +1 -3 0.98 31% 1.1 .34 20% .40 73% .29
Feb
18		 La Salle F A A+ F C- 48% 10% 43% A- C F F F F A+ C+ A+ A A+ C- C B 38% 22% 40% C- B- C+ A- B A+ D A+ B-
0.90 70% 75% 17% -2 +2 1.02 19% 0.8 .15 26% .43 68% .29 0.88 41% 40% 33% -6 0 0.89 33% 0.8 .26 26% .37 58% .21
Feb
21		 Dayton C+ C- F A D- 34% 27% 39% C- D- B+ A A B- A+ B A+ D A+ F B+ B 45% 16% 39% C B F F F F F C+ F
1.03 53% 8% 41% -6 -1 0.89 36% 1.2 .44 20% .47 75% .35 1.21 45% 71% 29% -3 +1 0.98 35% 1.5 .52 12% .57 75% .43



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 1.5 8.9 1.3 11.7 3rd
4th 0.1 12.9 9.0 0.2 22.1 4th
5th 2.0 18.9 2.0 0.0 22.8 5th
6th 0.0 9.5 7.6 0.1 17.2 6th
7th 0.7 12.7 0.4 13.8 7th
8th 2.8 4.9 7.7 8th
9th 3.7 0.6 4.2 9th
10th 0.5 0.5 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 7.6 29.7 41.2 20.0 1.5 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 1.5% 3.8% 3.8% 11.5 0.0 0.0 1.4
11-7 20.0% 2.9% 2.9% 12.2 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 19.4
10-8 41.2% 1.6% 1.6% 12.4 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 40.5
9-9 29.7% 0.7% 0.7% 12.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 29.5
8-10 7.6% 0.6% 0.6% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.6
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 12.4 98.4 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%
Lose Out 4.0%