Duquesne
Atlantic 10
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.2#142
Expected Predictive Rating-2.4#210
Pace63.5#308
Improvement+4.7#20

Offense
Total Offense-1.3#215
First Shot-3.3#275
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#66
Layup/Dunks-2.7#282
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#319
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.0#43
Freethrows-3.0#341
Improvement+1.9#80

Defense
Total Defense+2.5#104
First Shot+2.3#101
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#166
Layups/Dunks+1.4#119
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#141
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#83
Freethrows-2.1#316
Improvement+2.8#41
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 1.0% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.5 15.3
.500 or above 2.9% 4.5% 0.9%
.500 or above in Conference 29.2% 41.3% 14.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.8% 0.7% 9.7%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round0.9% 1.0% 0.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Richmond (Away) - 55.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 23 - 73 - 8
Quad 36 - 79 - 15
Quad 44 - 412 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 110   Lipscomb L 72-77 51%     0 - 1 -4.0 -5.7 +2.0
  Nov 08, 2024 129   Princeton L 68-75 47%     0 - 2 -5.1 -6.4 +1.5
  Nov 15, 2024 112   @ DePaul L 58-84 33%     0 - 3 -20.3 -5.2 -18.5
  Nov 19, 2024 133   Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 74-80 58%     0 - 4 -6.9 +1.5 -8.4
  Nov 24, 2024 114   South Dakota St. L 60-71 43%     0 - 5 -8.0 -8.1 -0.6
  Nov 25, 2024 287   Hampton L 59-64 78%     0 - 6 -11.9 -12.9 +0.6
  Nov 26, 2024 275   Old Dominion W 67-54 76%     1 - 6 +6.7 -9.3 +15.9
  Dec 03, 2024 272   St. Peter's L 59-62 82%     1 - 7 -11.7 -3.2 -9.0
  Dec 06, 2024 232   Delaware W 80-66 77%     2 - 7 +7.4 +6.1 +2.3
  Dec 11, 2024 199   Maine L 56-61 70%     2 - 8 -9.2 -8.0 -1.9
  Dec 14, 2024 160   Towson W 65-47 53%     3 - 8 +18.4 +12.5 +11.0
  Dec 21, 2024 67   UC Irvine W 70-54 34%     4 - 8 +21.5 +15.7 +8.5
  Dec 31, 2024 121   Rhode Island W 67-55 55%     5 - 8 1 - 0 +11.8 +0.9 +12.0
  Jan 04, 2025 126   @ Davidson L 71-77 37%     5 - 9 1 - 1 -1.4 +7.5 -9.7
  Jan 08, 2025 86   Saint Joseph's W 85-81 OT 38%     6 - 9 2 - 1 +8.2 +10.0 -2.1
  Jan 15, 2025 124   @ George Washington W 73-65 37%     7 - 9 3 - 1 +12.6 +4.6 +8.2
  Jan 18, 2025 95   St. Bonaventure W 75-57 44%     8 - 9 4 - 1 +20.8 +12.4 +10.6
  Jan 21, 2025 80   Dayton L 62-82 36%     8 - 10 4 - 2 -15.2 -6.0 -10.6
  Jan 26, 2025 191   @ Fordham L 63-65 50%     8 - 11 4 - 3 -0.9 -3.4 +2.3
  Jan 29, 2025 86   @ Saint Joseph's L 72-76 22%     8 - 12 4 - 4 +5.2 +6.1 -1.0
  Feb 01, 2025 152   Massachusetts L 53-62 61%     8 - 13 4 - 5 -10.8 -19.8 +9.1
  Feb 05, 2025 220   @ Richmond W 65-63 55%    
  Feb 08, 2025 128   Loyola Chicago W 67-65 58%    
  Feb 15, 2025 80   @ Dayton L 63-72 20%    
  Feb 19, 2025 191   Fordham W 72-67 70%    
  Feb 22, 2025 95   @ St. Bonaventure L 61-68 25%    
  Feb 26, 2025 193   @ La Salle W 70-69 49%    
  Mar 01, 2025 81   George Mason L 59-63 38%    
  Mar 04, 2025 38   Virginia Commonwealth L 62-70 23%    
  Mar 08, 2025 105   @ Saint Louis L 65-71 28%    
Projected Record 12 - 18 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 1.2 0.1 2.6 4th
5th 0.9 3.4 0.6 0.0 4.9 5th
6th 0.1 3.8 2.9 0.0 6.8 6th
7th 1.7 7.4 0.7 0.0 9.9 7th
8th 0.1 6.1 4.5 0.0 10.8 8th
9th 0.0 2.3 9.8 1.0 13.1 9th
10th 0.2 7.0 5.2 0.1 12.5 10th
11th 0.0 2.4 9.0 1.1 12.5 11th
12th 0.3 6.5 4.2 0.1 11.0 12th
13th 0.0 2.6 5.8 0.7 9.1 13th
14th 0.6 2.9 1.0 0.0 4.5 14th
15th 0.6 0.5 1.1 15th
Total 1.2 6.3 15.9 23.2 24.2 17.6 8.5 2.6 0.5 0.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 6.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.5% 10.0% 10.0% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
11-7 2.6% 2.0% 2.0% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5
10-8 8.5% 1.3% 1.3% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.4
9-9 17.6% 1.7% 1.7% 14.9 0.0 0.3 17.3
8-10 24.2% 1.0% 1.0% 15.5 0.1 0.1 23.9
7-11 23.2% 0.6% 0.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 23.1
6-12 15.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.9
5-13 6.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.3
4-14 1.2% 1.2
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.7%