Elon
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.5 #163
Expected Predictive Rating +0.0 #167
Pace 68.4 #210
Improvement +1.8 #88

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #93 A- C+ C+ C A+
Defense #298 D+ D C- C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #22 1.23 #98 +6.1 #21
2 Pt. Jumpers 8% #357 0.70 #246 -4.8 #358
Three Pointers 46% #95 1.10 #70 +4.5 #45
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #45 +5.8 #45
Freethrows 18.5 #122 70% #249 13.0 #161
Second Chance 33.9% #95 1.03 #204 0.35 #120
Turnovers 15.8% #130
Total Offense +3.3 #93

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #265 1.09 #92 +3.0 #82
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #299 0.80 #252 +1.4 #95
Three Pointers 48% #29 1.15 #332 -6.8 #356
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #268 -2.4 #261
Freethrows 17.3 #187 71% #116 12.3 #190
Second Chance 33.5% #285 1.10 #254 0.37 #291
Turnovers 15.8% #222
Total Defense -3.8 #298

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 4.3% #5 0.6% #217
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 6.7% #80 4.8% #270
Possession Length 17.2 #169 17.3 #203
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #204 0.16 #139
Improvement -1.5 #276 +3.4 #24

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.0% 8.0% 4.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.7 14.2
.500 or above 73.8% 81.3% 58.1%
.500 or above in Conference 71.6% 79.6% 55.1%
Conference Champion 4.0% 5.2% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.3% 1.4%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round6.9% 8.0% 4.7%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Campbell (Home) - 67.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 36 - 67 - 11
Quad 410 - 317 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 284 @UNC Greensboro W 92 - 90 OT 63%  +1  1 - 0 -2 +9 C+ F A+ -11 F A- C-
 Wed, Nov 12 159 @Marshall L 89 - 96 38%  -6  1 - 1 -4 +10 B+ B A- -13 F F C
 Sat, Nov 15 363 Gardner-Webb W 95 - 84 95%  +16  2 - 1 -8 +6 A+ B- F -15 F D- D
 Thu, Nov 20 36 @Miami (FL) L 72 - 99 7%  -10  2 - 2 -10 +4 A+ D- F -13 D F D+
 Mon, Nov 24 224 @Appalachian St. W 88 - 53 49%  +17  3 - 2 +35 +30 C+ A+ A+ +10 B+ A- D+
 Sat, Nov 29 160 Mercer L 84 - 91 61%  -1  3 - 3 -10 +1 D+ D+ F -11 D+ B+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 150 Furman L 88 - 97 58%  +1  3 - 4 -12 +11 B C A+ -23 F C F
 Sat, Dec 6 223 @Wofford W 73 - 52 49%  +21  4 - 4 +21 +9 A+ F F +15 A+ A D+
 Sat, Dec 13 325 Northern Illinois W 85 - 79 88%  -4  5 - 4 -7 +5 C+ F A+ -13 D+ D+ F
 Wed, Dec 17 115 Richmond W 73 - 70 46%  -2  6 - 4 +4 +3 A+ F D- +1 D+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 68 @Virginia Tech L 81 - 82 OT 13%  +6  6 - 5 +11 +14 A+ A+ F -4 B+ F A
 Mon, Dec 29 233 Northeastern W 103 - 91 73%  +5  7 - 5 1 - 0 +5 +22 A+ A+ D- -17 F C- C+
 Wed, Dec 31 149 College of Charleston L 81 - 85 58%  -7  7 - 6 1 - 1 -7 +3 C C A+ -9 C+ F C+
 Thu, Jan 8 305 @N.C. A&T W 69 - 64 68%  +6  8 - 6 2 - 1 -0 -4 F C+ C +4 A- F C
 Sat, Jan 10 199 Campbell W 83 - 78 68% 
 Thu, Jan 15 233 @Northeastern W 81 - 80 52% 
 Sat, Jan 17 109 @Hofstra L 71 - 79 23% 
 Thu, Jan 22 175 Towson W 73 - 69 63% 
 Sat, Jan 24 149 @College of Charleston L 76 - 80 35% 
 Thu, Jan 29 127 William & Mary W 84 - 83 52% 
 Sat, Jan 31 276 Stony Brook W 76 - 67 80% 
 Thu, Feb 5 252 @Hampton W 74 - 72 56% 
 Sat, Feb 7 248 Drexel W 75 - 68 75% 
 Thu, Feb 12 118 @UNC Wilmington L 70 - 77 27% 
 Sat, Feb 14 127 @William & Mary L 81 - 86 31% 
 Sat, Feb 21 305 N.C. A&T W 84 - 73 84% 
 Thu, Feb 26 175 @Towson L 70 - 72 41% 
 Sat, Feb 28 194 @Monmouth L 74 - 75 45% 
 Tue, Mar 3 118 UNC Wilmington L 73 - 74 48% 
Totals 16 - 13 10 - 8 -1 +3 A- C+ C+ -4 D+ D C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.0 4.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.6 3.6 1.6 0.2 0.0 8.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 4.0 5.6 2.1 0.2 12.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 4.2 6.8 2.4 0.2 0.0 14.1 4th
5th 0.2 3.2 8.0 3.5 0.3 15.2 5th
6th 0.0 1.8 6.7 4.0 0.5 13.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 5.0 4.4 0.6 0.0 10.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.5 4.7 1.2 0.0 8.6 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 3.4 1.6 0.1 6.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.8 1.5 0.1 3.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.2 0.1 0.0 2.5 11th
12th 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.8 4.5 8.2 13.3 16.1 17.5 15.3 11.1 6.9 3.4 1.1 0.3 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 98.1% 0.3    0.2 0.0
15-3 80.7% 0.9    0.7 0.2 0.0
14-4 45.7% 1.5    0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0
13-5 14.2% 1.0    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.0% 4.0 1.7 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.3% 19.2% 19.2% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-3 1.1% 22.8% 22.8% 12.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.9
14-4 3.4% 19.8% 19.8% 13.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 2.7
13-5 6.9% 14.7% 14.7% 13.3 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 5.9
12-6 11.1% 12.5% 12.5% 13.7 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.1 9.7
11-7 15.3% 9.5% 9.5% 13.9 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.3 13.8
10-8 17.5% 6.3% 6.3% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 16.4
9-9 16.1% 3.5% 3.5% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 15.5
8-10 13.3% 2.2% 2.2% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 13.0
7-11 8.2% 1.7% 1.7% 15.6 0.1 0.1 8.0
6-12 4.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 4.5
5-13 1.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.8
4-14 0.5% 0.5
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 7.0% 7.0% 0.0% 13.8 93.1 0.0%