Elon
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -3.8 227
Results Rating -3.2 219
Pace 67.6 206
Improvement -4.8 342

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 118 B- C+ C+ C A-
Defense D 324 D+ D- C- C+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 37 C 58% 175 +3.4 64
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 339 D 33% 326 -4.5 358
Three Pointers 45% 101 B- 36% 108 +3.1 78
Shot Selection/Accuracy A- +1.7 16 C +0.5 153
1st FG Attempt B- 1.07 107
Second Chance B- 32.9% 103 C- 1.01 203 C+ 0.33 123
Turnovers C+ 16.2% 142
Freethrows C 0.31 170 C- 71% 234 C 0.22 185
Total Offense C+ +1.8 118

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 46% 230 D+ 12.4% 267
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 17% 307 C- 6.1% 257
Three Pointers B- 89% 73 C- 1.1% 253
Total C+ 59% 112 D+ 6.7% 293

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 302 C+ 56% 114 -3.3 72
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 238 C- 40% 252 -0.7 131
Three Pointers 47% 29 F+ 39% 356 +6.8 360
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 155 D +3.1 299
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.08 284
Second Chance D 34.0% 312 D 1.12 308 D- 0.38 329
Turnovers C- 15.8% 245
Freethrows C+ 0.29 152 C 72% 156 C+ 0.21 140
Total Defense D -5.6 324

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 52% 260 C- 10.2% 200
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 28% 230 D+ 3.0% 294
Three Pointers C- 85% 218 C+ 1.2% 103
Total D 62% 314 D+ 4.6% 255

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.3 170 17.5 209
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 229 0.17 168
Improvement -4.5 #351 -0.3 #208

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 257 231 201
Results Rating Rank 263 224 186
Conference Record 6 - 12 7 - 11 8 - 10
Conference Finish 11 10 7
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 1% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.0 15.6
.500 or above 7% 19% 2%
.500 or above in Conference 4% 13% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round1% 1% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Towson (Away) - 27.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 12 - 3
Quad 35 - 57 - 9
Quad 47 - 814 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 301 @UNC Greensboro W 92 - 90 OT 56% +1  45% 1 - 0 C- -3 B- +5 D D- A+ F+ -8 F B+ C-
 Wed, Nov 12 176 @Marshall L 89 - 96 29% -6  3% 1 - 1 D+ -5 B- +5 B- C A- F+ -9 F+ F C+
 Sat, Nov 15 364 Gardner-Webb W 95 - 84 94% +16  94% 2 - 1 D -11 C+ +2 A B+ F F -14 F D- D-
 Thu, Nov 20 39 @Miami (FL) L 72 - 99 4% -10  0% 2 - 2 D -11 C +1 A+ C- F F -10 D+ F D
 Mon, Nov 24 173 @Appalachian St. W 88 - 53 28% +17  97% 3 - 2 A+ +37 A+ +28 C+ A+ A A+ +14 A- B+ C-
 Sat, Nov 29 178 Mercer L 84 - 91 51% -1  48% 3 - 3 D -11 D+ -3 D+ D F D- -8 D B F
 Wed, Dec 3 175 Furman L 88 - 97 51% +1  42% 3 - 4 D- -13 A- +10 C+ B- A+ F -22 F C F
 Sat, Dec 6 238 @Wofford W 73 - 52 40% +21  99% 4 - 4 A +20 B- +5 A- F D- A+ +18 A+ B+ C
 Sat, Dec 13 323 Northern Illinois W 85 - 79 82% -4  7% 5 - 4 D+ -7 B- +5 C+ F+ A F -12 D+ F+ F+
 Wed, Dec 17 130 Richmond W 73 - 70 39% -2  18% 6 - 4 C+ +2 C -0 A F D- B- +2 D F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 57 @Virginia Tech L 81 - 82 OT 7% +6  84% 6 - 5 B+ +12 A +12 A A+ F+ C -1 B+ F A-
 Mon, Dec 29 292 Northeastern W 103 - 91 75% +5  98% 7 - 5 1 - 0 C +1 A+ +17 A+ A+ D F -16 F C- C+
 Wed, Dec 31 149 College of Charleston L 81 - 85 45% -7  2% 7 - 6 1 - 1 D+ -7 C+ +2 C C A+ F+ -8 C+ F C-
 Thu, Jan 8 273 @N.C. A&T W 69 - 64 48% +6  94% 8 - 6 2 - 1 C+ +2 D- -7 F+ C C A +8 A F C
 Sat, Jan 10 197 Campbell W 83 - 82 55% -6  4% 9 - 6 3 - 1 C- -4 B +7 B A+ B+ F -11 F B F
 Thu, Jan 15 292 @Northeastern L 78 - 85 53% -4  19% 9 - 7 3 - 2 D- -12 D- -7 C+ D F D+ -4 C F D
 Sat, Jan 17 106 @Hofstra W 89 - 85 15% +3  73% 10 - 7 4 - 2 B +11 A+ +21 A+ C- A- F -10 F A- C
 Thu, Jan 22 170 Towson L 59 - 72 49% -5  21% 10 - 8 4 - 3 F+ -17 D -5 C- C F F -14 A F F
 Sat, Jan 24 149 @College of Charleston L 70 - 80 25% -10  0% 10 - 9 4 - 4 D+ -7 D+ -4 D C+ D- C- -2 D- D+ A
 Thu, Jan 29 136 William & Mary W 79 - 76 41% -4  19% 11 - 9 5 - 4 C +2 B +6 B- B- A+ D+ -4 C- C B
 Sat, Jan 31 214 Stony Brook L 68 - 72 59% -6  7% 11 - 10 5 - 5 D -10 F+ -9 C+ F D+ C -1 C+ F C+
 Thu, Feb 5 259 @Hampton L 79 - 87 2OT 45% -0  48% 11 - 11 5 - 6 D -11 D -4 D+ D C D -5 A- F F
 Sat, Feb 7 221 Drexel L 77 - 82 60% -6  0% 11 - 12 5 - 7 D- -11 B- +4 D A+ C+ F -15 F+ C+ F
 Thu, Feb 12 108 @UNC Wilmington L 54 - 65 16% -9  1% 11 - 13 5 - 8 C- -4 F+ -9 F D+ C+ B- +3 D D A
 Sat, Feb 14 136 @William & Mary W 81 - 78 22% +1  57% 12 - 13 6 - 8 B- +8 B +6 D B- A+ C+ +2 B- A- D+
 Sat, Feb 21 273 N.C. A&T L 82 - 102 70% -10  1% 12 - 14 6 - 9 F -29 B- +4 C- A B- F -34 F F D
 Thu, Feb 26 170 @Towson L 68 - 74 28%
 Sat, Feb 28 199 @Monmouth L 73 - 78 33%
 Tue, Mar 3 108 UNC Wilmington L 73 - 77 34%
Totals 13 - 16 7 - 11 -4 C+ +2 C+ C A- D -6 B- C- C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ C D B- C 44% 22% 45% A- B- B- C- C+ C+ C C- C D C+ C- F+ D 34% 19% 47% C D+ D D D- C- C+ C C+
1.11 58% 33% 36% +1 +2 1.07 33% 1.0 .33 16% .31 71% .22 1.17 56% 40% 39% +3 0 1.08 34% 1.1 .38 16% .29 72% .22
Nov
8		 UNC Greensboro B- D F A- D- 38% 16% 47% B- D A F D- A+ A+ C- A+ F+ B+ D+ F F 30% 19% 51% C- F D A+ B+ C- D- A+ C
1.23 55% 22% 41% +1 +1 1.05 40% 0.6 .26 5% .43 70% .30 1.21 50% 40% 52% +12 0 1.25 31% 0.7 .21 15% .42 59% .25
Nov
12		 Marshall B- A F D C+ 37% 7% 56% A B- C- B- C A- D+ C+ C- F+ C- C F F+ 31% 15% 54% F+ F+ B F F C+ F B+ F+
1.16 71% 25% 31% +2 +2 1.09 33% 1.0 .33 13% .33 73% .24 1.26 63% 38% 43% +8 0 1.19 28% 2.1 .59 18% .35 68% .24
Nov
15		 Gardner-Webb C+ C+ D+ A+ A 33% 12% 55% C+ A D+ A+ B+ F A F B F F F+ B- F 42% 20% 38% B- F F A+ D- D- B- A B
1.26 65% 33% 50% +15 +1 1.33 33% 1.4 .47 20% .38 65% .25 1.11 68% 42% 30% +3 0 1.08 40% 0.7 .29 17% .24 60% .14
Nov
20		 Miami (FL) C B D+ A+ A+ 46% 13% 41% A A+ D B+ C- F A- F C+ F D+ B- F D 44% 20% 35% B- D+ F F F D D+ C D+
0.98 62% 33% 47% +9 +2 1.24 18% 1.2 .21 25% .33 56% .18 1.35 67% 36% 42% +8 0 1.19 47% 1.3 .59 14% .36 70% .25
Nov
24		 Appalachian St. A+ B+ A+ F C+ 37% 16% 47% C+ C+ A+ A+ A+ A B A+ A- A+ B A+ A A 30% 9% 61% D+ A- A- C+ B+ C- F A+ C-
1.44 63% 63% 25% -1 +1 1.02 50% 1.6 .81 10% .31 82% .25 0.87 54% 25% 26% -10 +1 0.84 24% 1.0 .24 15% .44 48% .21
Nov
29		 Mercer D+ C+ F D+ D- 49% 7% 44% A D+ A+ F D F A+ D+ A+ D- C A+ F D 31% 17% 52% C- D A+ F B F F D+ F
1.09 59% 0% 33% -3 +2 1.02 45% 0.6 .26 23% .44 73% .32 1.18 59% 22% 43% +4 0 1.11 22% 1.3 .27 12% .44 77% .34
Dec
3		 Furman A- D F B- C- 45% 2% 53% A+ C+ C+ B B- A+ A+ B A+ F F D+ F+ 38% 0% 62% F F D B+ C F F F F
1.23 50% 0% 35% -3 +3 1.02 33% 1.1 .35 8% .38 76% .29 1.35 75% 34% +7 +3 1.21 33% 0.8 .28 11% .49 77% .38
Dec
6		 Wofford B- D+ A+ A+ B+ 52% 9% 39% B+ A- A F F D- C- C C- A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 32% 4% 64% D A+ C A+ B+ C B A+ A
1.20 54% 75% 44% +7 +3 1.22 39% 0.5 .21 18% .28 79% .22 0.85 47% 0% 23% -15 +2 0.74 28% 0.7 .20 15% .29 60% .17
Dec
13		 Northern Illinois B- A A+ F C 57% 10% 33% A- C+ B- F F+ A A+ C+ A+ F B+ A+ F D+ 35% 8% 57% C- D+ D F F+ F+ F F F
1.20 71% 60% 19% +2 +3 1.12 34% 0.6 .22 13% .53 73% .39 1.12 47% 0% 39% -2 +1 1.00 34% 1.0 .34 18% .47 74% .35
Dec
17		 Richmond C C- A+ A+ A- 43% 12% 45% A+ A B- F F D- C+ D+ C B- A D+ F D- 22% 26% 52% B- D F C+ F A+ A+ F B
1.10 57% 50% 41% +6 +1 1.16 33% 0.5 .15 20% .30 69% .21 1.06 50% 42% 46% +8 -2 1.15 39% 1.0 .39 30% .22 100% .22
Dec
20		 Virginia Tech A A F B A- 49% 8% 43% A+ A A+ C A+ F+ D+ A+ C C A F C+ B+ 43% 32% 26% B+ B+ F D+ F A- F B+ F
1.17 69% 0% 35% +3 +2 1.13 47% 1.0 .47 22% .20 82% .17 1.18 50% 47% 33% -1 -1 0.98 49% 1.2 .57 19% .51 69% .35
Dec
29		 Northeastern A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 49% 6% 45% A A+ A+ A+ A+ D A B A F C+ A- F F 44% 19% 37% C F C- D+ C- C+ C- B C
1.43 76% 67% 48% +20 +3 1.47 46% 1.3 .58 19% .43 76% .33 1.26 57% 30% 68% +17 +1 1.37 28% 1.1 .31 18% .29 65% .19
Dec
31		 College of Charleston C+ C A+ F D+ 45% 10% 45% A+ C D- A+ C A+ A- D- B F+ A+ F D B- 43% 16% 41% F+ C+ D- F F C- F F F
1.10 59% 50% 26% -4 +2 0.98 24% 1.2 .29 8% .30 65% .19 1.15 43% 50% 35% -4 +1 0.96 33% 1.4 .45 16% .47 90% .42
Jan
8		 N.C. A&T D- F F B+ F 56% 8% 36% A+ F+ C- B- C C B+ F C A A D+ A+ A 22% 24% 55% B- A D- F F C A+ D+ A+
1.02 46% 0% 39% -7 +3 0.94 26% 1.1 .29 13% .37 59% .22 0.94 45% 42% 25% -9 -2 0.80 35% 1.4 .48 19% .16 78% .13
Jan
10		 Campbell B C- F A+ C+ 58% 8% 34% A+ B C- A+ A+ B+ F F F F A- F F F 39% 15% 46% B- F A- C B F A C+ A
1.23 58% 25% 44% +4 +3 1.17 30% 1.9 .57 15% .17 40% .07 1.22 48% 50% 48% +7 +1 1.19 28% 1.0 .28 12% .29 71% .20
Jan
15		 Northeastern D- C- F A+ C 44% 8% 48% B+ C+ D- C D F D+ F F+ D+ C+ F+ C+ C 39% 19% 42% C+ C D+ F F D A+ D A
1.03 59% 0% 46% +6 +2 1.18 26% 1.0 .26 24% .31 61% .19 1.13 57% 45% 32% 0 0 1.02 29% 1.9 .56 15% .17 73% .12
Jan
17		 Hofstra A+ A D+ A+ A+ 52% 7% 41% A+ A+ C+ D- C- A- A+ A+ A+ F B+ F F F 17% 31% 52% A+ F D- A+ A- C F C F
1.34 67% 33% 42% +9 +3 1.26 32% 0.9 .29 11% .45 81% .37 1.28 50% 53% 48% +14 -3 1.25 38% 0.7 .26 17% .38 76% .29
Jan
22		 Towson D D+ F C D+ 37% 12% 51% B C- B+ F+ C F A C- B+ F A- A+ F A 31% 29% 41% C A F F F F C- F F+
1.00 53% 20% 33% -4 +1 0.95 33% 0.8 .27 22% .35 69% .24 1.22 47% 0% 40% -11 -2 0.78 50% 1.1 .57 8% .30 81% .24
Jan
24		 College of Charleston D+ B+ A+ F D- 27% 23% 50% C- D D+ B+ C+ D- A- B- A- C- F A+ B F+ 30% 28% 42% B+ D- F A- D+ A F A+ D+
0.97 67% 54% 18% -6 -1 0.88 28% 1.1 .31 17% .30 72% .22 1.11 100% 21% 29% +5 -2 1.08 38% 0.9 .34 22% .46 62% .29
Jan
29		 William & Mary B C- D B C 53% 6% 42% A B- C- A- B- A+ D- F+ D- D+ B A+ F+ C 40% 4% 56% D C- C- C+ C B A- D B+
1.19 57% 33% 36% +1 +3 1.09 29% 1.2 .35 11% .23 64% .15 1.14 55% 0% 39% +2 +2 1.10 27% 1.1 .30 20% .26 79% .21
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Stony Brook F+ D+ C- B- C- 57% 6% 37% A+ C+ C+ F F D+ B- C- C+ C A+ D D- C 24% 18% 57% B+ C+ F F+ F C+ F D+ F
0.99 55% 33% 37% 0 +3 1.08 33% 0.3 .10 17% .32 72% .23 1.04 33% 44% 39% 0 -1 1.00 36% 1.1 .39 19% .36 75% .27
Feb
5		 Hampton D A+ F C C- 31% 31% 38% F D+ C+ F D C A- F C+ D A+ B+ B+ A- 33% 30% 37% C+ A- D+ F F F F B- F
1.00 76% 24% 33% +1 -2 1.00 30% 0.8 .23 16% .46 60% .27 1.10 42% 29% 29% -11 -2 0.77 36% 1.5 .53 13% .54 70% .38
Feb
7		 Drexel B- D+ F F+ F+ 35% 14% 51% B D D A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ F C- B- F F+ 33% 18% 49% C F+ A+ F C+ F F D F
1.14 53% 29% 28% -8 +1 0.88 26% 2.0 .53 15% .47 85% .40 1.21 59% 33% 44% +7 0 1.16 20% 1.1 .23 9% .39 71% .28
Feb
12		 UNC Wilmington F+ F+ F+ F F 29% 21% 50% C+ F C+ F D+ C+ C+ F D+ B- A C+ F D- 25% 20% 55% C D B F D A A+ A+ A+
0.90 50% 30% 21% -14 -1 0.73 29% 0.8 .24 13% .27 64% .17 1.08 45% 33% 42% +2 -1 1.05 29% 1.4 .41 20% .25 50% .12
Feb
14		 William & Mary B F F A- D- 46% 13% 41% B D F A+ B- A+ B+ B- B+ C+ C F A+ B- 43% 13% 43% C B- C- A+ A- D+ F B- D-
1.14 46% 14% 39% -5 +2 0.95 21% 1.8 .37 8% .34 73% .25 1.10 61% 57% 26% -1 +1 1.02 28% 0.8 .22 15% .42 72% .30
Feb
21		 N.C. A&T B- F F A D+ 40% 11% 49% B C- A B A B- B- B+ B F F F F F 43% 31% 27% C- F F C- F D C- F D-
1.21 48% 17% 42% 0 +1 1.04 38% 1.1 .43 12% .33 75% .25 1.51 81% 67% 54% +26 -1 1.53 50% 1.1 .55 16% .37 86% .32



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.1 0.1 4th
5th 0.9 0.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 1.5 6th
7th 1.5 1.0 2.5 7th
8th 0.2 8.3 0.3 8.8 8th
9th 8.0 9.3 0.0 17.3 9th
10th 5.6 24.2 0.9 30.7 10th
11th 26.9 11.1 0.0 38.0 11th
12th 0.3 0.3 12th
13th 13th
Total 32.7 43.4 20.2 3.6 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 3.6% 2.4% 2.4% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.6
8-10 20.2% 1.6% 1.6% 14.9 0.1 0.3 0.0 19.9
7-11 43.4% 1.1% 1.1% 15.7 0.2 0.3 42.9
6-12 32.7% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.3 32.5
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 15.4 98.9 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 13.9 30.8 46.2 23.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%
Lose Out 19.2%