George Mason
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +6.7 #84
Expected Predictive Rating +13.0 #43
Pace 63.1 #327
Improvement -3.0 #303

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #85 B- C B- A- C
Defense #94 C+ B+ C- B B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #136 1.30 #47 +3.8 #60
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #162 0.80 #102 +0.7 #138
Three Pointers 39% #234 1.00 #206 -1.5 #239
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #86 +3.1 #87
Freethrows 0.39 #4 72% #204 0.28 #8
Second Chance 31.7% #150 0.98 #245 0.31 #184
Turnovers 15.3% #99
Total Offense +3.9 #85

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #297 1.18 #208 +2.0 #114
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #62 0.67 #49 -0.5 #224
Three Pointers 41% #185 0.99 #139 +0.6 #156
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #106 +2.1 #108
Freethrows 0.25 #47 71% #127 0.18 #46
Second Chance 25.8% #34 0.90 #36 0.23 #21
Turnovers 15.8% #237
Total Defense +2.8 #94

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.0% #190 -1.6% #59
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 6.0% #77 -2.6% #128
Possession Length 18.2 #274 17.7 #255
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #168 0.14 #90
Improvement -2.0 #302 -0.9 #241

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.9% 9.7% 6.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.9% 2.3% 1.0%
Average Seed 11.1 11.1 11.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
Conference Champion 4.7% 5.9% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.6% 1.8% 0.8%
First Round7.9% 8.4% 6.4%
Second Round1.4% 1.6% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Duquesne (Home) - 72.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 3
Quad 23 - 23 - 5
Quad 311 - 214 - 7
Quad 411 - 025 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 200 Wofford W 70 - 46 87% +9  1 - 0 +18 -2 D+ C+ D +23 A+ A A+
 Fri, Nov 7 123 Winthrop W 96 - 90 76% +0  2 - 0 +5 +13 A+ D+ C- -8 D A+ F
 Sat, Nov 15 320 New Hampshire W 61 - 44 95% +7  3 - 0 +4 -13 F C D- +18 A+ C- A+
 Tue, Nov 18 295 Jacksonville W 79 - 57 94% +12  4 - 0 +11 +8 A+ F F +5 B- B A+
 Mon, Nov 24 199 Ohio W 92 - 69 81% +20  5 - 0 +20 +21 A- B+ A+ +0 C+ D C+
 Tue, Nov 25 109 Florida Atlantic W 74 - 65 62% +11  6 - 0 +13 +16 A+ C- A+ -2 C+ A+ D+
 Sat, Nov 29 205 James Madison W 82 - 66 87% +1  7 - 0 +10 +9 A+ F+ D +2 A B- F
 Tue, Dec 2 176 Cornell W 99 - 81 84% +5  8 - 0 +14 +14 A+ F+ D+ -1 D+ A+ C
 Sat, Dec 6 60 @Virginia Tech L 62 - 73 30% -10  8 - 1 +1 +1 C- B F -1 D+ A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 13 243 Old Dominion W 73 - 61 90% +10  9 - 1 +4 -4 D D- C- +8 B D+ A+
 Sun, Dec 21 318 Loyola Maryland W 86 - 79 95% -1  10 - 1 -6 +10 D- C+ A- -15 D+ F D-
 Sun, Dec 28 180 Penn W 83 - 79 85% +3  11 - 1 -0 +9 B- A- A+ -10 F A+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 214 @La Salle W 80 - 75 74% -5  12 - 1 1 - 0 +5 +17 F+ A+ A+ -11 C B- F
 Sat, Jan 3 119 Rhode Island W 61 - 50 74% +4  13 - 1 2 - 0 +11 -3 C+ F+ A+ +15 B+ A+ B-
 Wed, Jan 7 169 @Fordham W 67 - 58 67% +1  14 - 1 3 - 0 +11 +5 C- C- C+ +7 B+ A D-
 Sat, Jan 10 50 Virginia Commonwealth W 86 - 80 47% +1  15 - 1 4 - 0 +13 +19 B+ B+ A+ -5 C C+ D
 Tue, Jan 13 279 @Loyola Chicago W 82 - 74 83% -3  16 - 1 5 - 0 +4 +15 C+ A+ C+ -10 F D F+
 Mon, Jan 19 79 George Washington W 69 - 64 60% +1  17 - 1 6 - 0 +9 -1 B C C- +11 A A+ C
 Sat, Jan 24 119 @Rhode Island L 65 - 74 53% -5  17 - 2 6 - 1 -3 +8 C- B A+ -13 C+ B- F
 Wed, Jan 28 117 Davidson W 60 - 52 74% +3  18 - 2 7 - 1 +8 +0 A- F F+ +9 A+ C+ B
 Sat, Jan 31 141 @St. Bonaventure W 77 - 73 60% -8  19 - 2 8 - 1 +8 +4 B C F +4 F+ A+ B
 Wed, Feb 4 113 Duquesne W 77 - 71 72%
 Sat, Feb 7 132 Saint Joseph's W 73 - 65 77%
 Tue, Feb 10 136 @Richmond W 73 - 71 59%
 Fri, Feb 13 79 @George Washington L 75 - 78 37%
 Wed, Feb 18 88 Dayton W 72 - 68 62%
 Wed, Feb 25 132 @Saint Joseph's W 70 - 68 57%
 Sat, Feb 28 141 St. Bonaventure W 76 - 68 79%
 Tue, Mar 3 50 @Virginia Commonwealth L 71 - 78 27%
 Sat, Mar 7 24 Saint Louis L 71 - 78 28%
Totals 24 - 6 13 - 5 +7 +4 B- C B- +3 C+ B+ C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.8 1.9 0.6 4.7 1st
2nd 0.2 3.9 13.9 17.5 10.0 1.8 47.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 4.3 13.4 11.7 3.2 0.2 33.0 3rd
4th 0.9 5.7 2.5 0.2 9.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 1.5 0.1 3.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.1 1.5 6th
7th 0.3 0.3 0.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.1 0.9 4.0 12.0 19.8 25.9 21.1 11.9 3.7 0.6 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.6    0.4 0.2
16-2 50.7% 1.9    0.8 1.0 0.0
15-3 15.0% 1.8    0.4 1.2 0.2
14-4 1.9% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0
13-5 0.1% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.7% 4.7 1.7 2.5 0.5 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.6% 47.1% 18.5% 28.6% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 35.1%
16-2 3.7% 26.4% 13.2% 13.2% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.0 2.7 15.2%
15-3 11.9% 17.1% 11.7% 5.4% 10.9 0.0 0.3 1.5 0.2 9.9 6.1%
14-4 21.1% 10.2% 8.6% 1.6% 11.2 0.1 1.6 0.5 19.0 1.8%
13-5 25.9% 7.3% 7.0% 0.4% 11.3 0.0 1.2 0.7 24.0 0.4%
12-6 19.8% 5.9% 5.7% 0.2% 11.5 0.6 0.6 0.0 18.6 0.2%
11-7 12.0% 2.7% 2.6% 0.1% 11.6 0.1 0.2 0.0 11.7 0.1%
10-8 4.0% 1.5% 1.5% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0
9-9 0.9% 0.9
8-10 0.1% 0.1
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 8.9% 7.1% 1.8% 11.1 91.1 1.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 8.1 9.1 4.5 9.1 36.4 27.3 9.1 4.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 46.3% 10.5 4.9 12.2 29.3