George Mason
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +4.4 105
Results Rating +7.6 81
Pace 62.8 330
Improvement -7.4 364

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 108 B- C C+ A- C
Defense C+ 120 C+ B C- B+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 143 B 65% 46 +3.3 68
2 Pt. Jumpers 38% 177 C 38% 179 +0.4 148
Three Pointers 38% 234 C 34% 198 -1.5 235
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.1 195 B- +2.3 97
1st FG Attempt B- 1.07 106
Second Chance C 30.8% 171 C- 1.00 226 C 0.31 186
Turnovers C+ 16.1% 135
Freethrows A- 0.38 11 C 72% 186 A- 0.27 16
Total Offense C+ +2.5 108

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B 58% 45 C+ 10.6% 151
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 23% 211 D+ 6.7% 284
Three Pointers D- 76% 336 B 0.4% 70
Total C 56% 163 C 5.8% 209

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 298 C 59% 200 -2.1 104
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 78 B+ 33% 31 +0.1 194
Three Pointers 42% 145 C 34% 183 +0.4 204
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.7 70 C+ -1.0 142
1st FG Attempt C+ 0.99 122
Second Chance B 27.0% 67 B 0.94 54 B 0.25 40
Turnovers C- 16.1% 220
Freethrows B+ 0.25 29 C 72% 154 B+ 0.18 33
Total Defense C+ +1.9 120

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 49% 183 C- 9.5% 230
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 20% 68 C+ 5.9% 103
Three Pointers C 83% 147 B 1.7% 51
Total C 55% 166 C 5.4% 192

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.2 269 18.1 298
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 161 0.13 59
Improvement -4.9 #354 -2.5 #301

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 121 104 88
Results Rating Rank 100 82 65
Conference Record 9 - 9 11 - 7 12 - 6
Conference Finish 6 4 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3% 4% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 11.9 11.8 12.0
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round3% 4% 2%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Saint Joseph's (Away) - 47.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 3
Quad 22 - 22 - 6
Quad 311 - 413 - 9
Quad 410 - 022 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 238 Wofford W 70 - 46 86% +9  90% 1 - 0 A- +17 D- -6 D C+ D- A+ +25 A+ A- A+
 Fri, Nov 7 135 Winthrop W 96 - 90 71% +0  40% 2 - 0 C+ +5 A- +10 A+ D+ D+ D -6 D A+ F
 Sat, Nov 15 346 New Hampshire W 61 - 44 96% +7  94% 3 - 0 C +1 F -16 F C F+ A+ +18 A+ D A+
 Tue, Nov 18 306 Jacksonville W 79 - 57 92% +12  97% 4 - 0 B +10 B- +4 A+ F F A- +8 B- B+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 209 Ohio W 92 - 69 75% +20  97% 5 - 0 A +20 A+ +18 A- B+ A+ B- +3 B- D B-
 Tue, Nov 25 116 Florida Atlantic W 74 - 65 56% +11  99% 6 - 0 B+ +12 A+ +15 A+ C- A C -1 C A+ C-
 Sat, Nov 29 201 James Madison W 82 - 66 82% +1  48% 7 - 0 B +11 B +7 A+ F+ D B +4 A B- F
 Tue, Dec 2 171 Cornell W 99 - 81 78% +5  68% 8 - 0 B+ +14 A +12 A+ D- D C+ +2 D A+ C
 Sat, Dec 6 57 @Virginia Tech L 62 - 73 21% -10  6% 8 - 1 C+ +2 C- -2 C- B+ F B- +3 C- A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 13 242 Old Dominion W 73 - 61 86% +10  96% 9 - 1 C+ +5 D- -7 D D- C- A+ +11 B+ D+ A+
 Sun, Dec 21 315 Loyola Maryland W 86 - 79 93% -1  44% 10 - 1 D+ -5 B +7 D- B- A- F -12 C- F D
 Sun, Dec 28 169 Penn W 83 - 79 78% +3  72% 11 - 1 C +0 B+ +8 B A- A+ D- -8 F A+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 200 @La Salle W 80 - 75 64% -5  8% 12 - 1 1 - 0 B- +6 A+ +16 D- A+ A+ F -10 C- B- F
 Sat, Jan 3 124 Rhode Island W 61 - 50 68% +4  84% 13 - 1 2 - 0 B +11 D -5 B- F+ A+ A+ +17 B A+ B-
 Wed, Jan 7 155 @Fordham W 67 - 58 55% +1  48% 14 - 1 3 - 0 B+ +12 B- +5 D+ C- B A +9 B+ A D-
 Sat, Jan 10 46 Virginia Commonwealth W 86 - 80 35% +1  42% 15 - 1 4 - 0 B+ +14 A+ +18 A A- A+ C- -3 C B- D-
 Tue, Jan 13 282 @Loyola Chicago W 82 - 74 78% -3  17% 16 - 1 5 - 0 C+ +4 A +13 C+ A+ B F+ -8 F D- F
 Mon, Jan 19 82 George Washington W 69 - 64 51% +1  59% 17 - 1 6 - 0 B +9 D -5 B C+ D+ A+ +14 A A+ C
 Sat, Jan 24 124 @Rhode Island L 65 - 74 45% -5  3% 17 - 2 6 - 1 C- -3 B +6 C- B+ A+ F -11 C C+ F
 Wed, Jan 28 113 Davidson W 60 - 52 66% +3  72% 18 - 2 7 - 1 B +8 D+ -3 A- F F A+ +12 A+ C+ A-
 Sat, Jan 31 142 @St. Bonaventure W 77 - 73 52% -8  1% 19 - 2 8 - 1 B- +8 C +0 B+ C+ F A- +8 F+ A+ B
 Wed, Feb 4 110 Duquesne L 65 - 71 65% -0  43% 19 - 3 8 - 2 D+ -6 D -5 B+ D- F C -1 A- F F+
 Sat, Feb 7 133 Saint Joseph's W 60 - 52 70% -0  44% 20 - 3 9 - 2 B- +7 D+ -3 D C- B A +11 A+ F A
 Tue, Feb 10 130 @Richmond L 70 - 82 48% -17  0% 20 - 4 9 - 3 D+ -7 D -4 D- B F C- -3 D B+ C
 Fri, Feb 13 82 @George Washington L 53 - 72 29% -7  2% 20 - 5 9 - 4 D -9 F -10 D- D C- C- -3 D+ A- D
 Wed, Feb 18 87 Dayton L 67 - 82 53% -8  0% 20 - 6 9 - 5 D- -11 C+ +3 C F A+ F -16 F C- F+
 Wed, Feb 25 133 @Saint Joseph's L 68 - 69 47%
 Sat, Feb 28 142 St. Bonaventure W 76 - 70 73%
 Tue, Mar 3 46 @Virginia Commonwealth L 69 - 79 17%
 Sat, Mar 7 23 Saint Louis L 71 - 80 20%
Totals 22 - 8 11 - 7 +4 C+ +3 C+ B- C C+ +2 C C A-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ B C C B- 40% 38% 38% C B- C C- C C+ A- C A- C+ C B+ C C+ 34% 24% 42% B- C+ B B B C- B+ C B+
1.12 65% 38% 34% +2 0 1.07 31% 1.0 .31 16% .38 72% .27 1.06 59% 33% 34% -1 -1 0.99 27% 0.9 .25 16% .25 72% .27
Nov
3		 Wofford D- C+ D- D- D 42% 25% 33% D- D D+ A C+ D- C D C- A+ D A+ A+ A+ 19% 19% 62% A+ A+ B- A+ A- A+ C A B
1.08 60% 33% 31% -2 0 0.98 27% 1.4 .37 18% .30 75% .23 0.71 63% 13% 23% -14 -1 0.71 26% 0.7 .18 25% .33 63% .20
Nov
7		 Winthrop A- A+ F+ A+ A+ 36% 13% 51% B- A+ A+ F D+ D+ A+ D+ A+ D F B+ D F 19% 22% 59% A+ D A+ A+ A+ F D- F F
1.25 76% 33% 42% +12 +1 1.28 44% 0.6 .28 18% .69 72% .50 1.17 73% 31% 37% +4 -2 1.07 24% 0.2 .04 8% .41 86% .35
Nov
15		 New Hampshire F B F F F 43% 17% 39% C+ F B+ F+ C F+ A+ B- A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 33% 35% 33% A+ A+ A F D A+ A- F C+
0.92 65% 13% 11% -15 +1 0.74 37% 0.9 .32 18% .50 78% .39 0.67 47% 19% 13% -21 -2 0.57 17% 1.7 .28 27% .19 89% .17
Nov
18		 Jacksonville B- A+ C A+ A+ 47% 21% 32% C A+ C+ F F F A+ F+ A+ A- B+ F A+ B 50% 19% 31% D- B- F A+ B+ A+ D F F
1.21 83% 38% 58% +23 +1 1.50 32% 0.4 .12 20% .67 63% .42 0.87 48% 50% 23% -8 +1 0.88 39% 0.6 .23 29% .32 87% .28
Nov
24		 Ohio A+ C F A+ A- 35% 15% 51% C A- A- C+ B+ A+ C+ D+ C B- D+ C C+ C- 18% 40% 42% A+ B- F B- D B- D B+ C-
1.36 58% 25% 46% +8 +1 1.18 41% 1.1 .44 9% .33 70% .23 1.02 63% 44% 32% +2 -4 0.98 36% 0.9 .33 18% .36 65% .23
Nov
25		 Florida Atlantic A+ B- B A+ A+ 40% 28% 33% F+ A+ A- F C- A A+ C A C F A+ C+ C- 38% 23% 40% B- C C- A+ A+ C- B+ D B
1.25 59% 42% 57% +13 -1 1.26 34% 0.7 .24 12% .40 71% .29 1.10 78% 18% 32% +1 0 1.04 34% 0.5 .17 17% .24 75% .18
Nov
29		 James Madison B A+ A+ C+ A+ 41% 17% 41% C+ A+ F A F+ D A+ A- A+ B D+ A+ B- A- 24% 25% 51% A+ A A- F+ B- F A- F B-
1.24 71% 57% 35% +9 +1 1.22 16% 1.3 .20 15% .64 78% .50 0.99 62% 14% 32% -7 -2 0.85 23% 1.2 .28 9% .23 79% .18
Dec
2		 Cornell A A+ F A+ A+ 44% 20% 35% C A+ B F D- D A A+ A+ C+ C A+ F D 45% 2% 53% F+ D A- A+ A+ C C B C+
1.37 83% 18% 53% +17 0 1.37 36% 0.7 .25 17% .41 84% .35 1.12 61% 0% 44% +9 +3 1.25 25% 0.9 .22 18% .29 71% .20
Dec
6		 Virginia Tech C- F C- B D+ 40% 17% 43% B C- A D+ B+ F B+ A A- B- F+ C D+ D+ 33% 21% 46% B- C- A A+ A+ C- A D B+
0.96 42% 38% 35% -6 +1 0.91 41% 0.9 .38 25% .29 79% .23 1.13 71% 36% 38% +6 0 1.13 26% 0.6 .16 14% .23 77% .18
Dec
13		 Old Dominion D- C- F D- F+ 54% 18% 28% B+ D F+ C D- C- A+ C A+ A+ B+ B+ C+ B+ 36% 34% 30% B B+ A F D+ A+ B D- C+
1.03 59% 11% 29% -6 +1 0.92 24% 1.0 .24 15% .52 74% .38 0.86 50% 29% 33% -6 -2 0.86 18% 1.7 .30 22% .25 79% .20
Dec
21		 Loyola Maryland B A- C+ F D 33% 31% 35% F+ D- B C- B- A- A+ B A+ F A+ C- F D+ 37% 15% 48% C+ C- F+ F F D D F F+
1.28 71% 44% 22% 0 -2 0.98 36% 1.2 .42 10% .57 79% .45 1.18 40% 38% 42% -1 +1 1.02 32% 1.3 .41 15% .30 82% .25
Dec
28		 Penn B+ A+ A+ F B+ 48% 26% 26% C- B B+ B+ A- A+ A+ F A- D- D D F F 32% 28% 40% B- F A A+ A+ F A A+ A+
1.21 75% 69% 8% +6 0 1.14 38% 1.1 .41 10% .45 50% .23 1.15 61% 44% 48% +11 -1 1.21 24% 0.7 .16 12% .25 53% .13
Dec
31		 La Salle A+ D+ A- F D- 44% 27% 29% D+ D- D A+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ F A F+ D- D+ 33% 27% 40% B C- C+ B B- F F C+ F
1.27 52% 46% 21% -6 0 0.90 24% 2.1 .52 0% .44 75% .33 1.19 44% 46% 37% -1 -1 0.98 33% 0.9 .29 6% .46 70% .32
Jan
3		 Rhode Island D C F A+ B- 38% 24% 38% D B- F A+ F+ A+ A+ F B A+ D- A+ B- B 26% 19% 55% A- B A+ A+ A+ B- A+ A+ A+
0.98 56% 10% 50% +2 0 1.05 13% 1.5 .20 14% .49 58% .28 0.80 67% 22% 31% -4 -1 0.94 20% 0.4 .08 21% .18 33% .06
Jan
7		 Fordham B- C+ A+ F D- 53% 22% 24% A D+ D B+ C- B A+ A+ A+ A A+ A- C A- 45% 18% 37% D B+ F+ A+ A D- B+ A+ A-
1.07 58% 50% 9% -6 +1 0.91 21% 1.2 .25 14% .49 77% .37 0.93 43% 33% 32% -9 +1 0.86 40% 0.5 .21 14% .19 60% .11
Jan
10		 Virginia Commonwealth A+ A+ A+ F A+ 41% 31% 29% D- A D- A+ A- A+ A+ A+ A+ C- F D B D+ 31% 23% 46% A+ C B- C+ B- D- D C- D
1.29 75% 53% 21% +6 -1 1.12 23% 1.7 .38 11% .40 88% .35 1.20 73% 45% 32% +5 -1 1.10 32% 1.1 .35 12% .43 76% .32
Jan
13		 Loyola Chicago A C D- A+ C+ 43% 32% 26% D C+ A+ A+ A+ B A+ C- A+ F+ F F A- F 50% 8% 42% F+ F B- F D- F D+ A+ B-
1.29 55% 33% 50% +3 -1 1.06 43% 1.4 .60 11% .46 77% .35 1.17 68% 75% 29% +4 +2 1.16 29% 1.3 .36 14% .33 56% .18
Jan
19		 George Washington D B A+ C B 37% 17% 46% C+ B F A+ C+ D+ A D- B+ A+ B+ A+ B+ A+ 50% 4% 46% D A A+ F A+ C A+ C+ A+
1.02 65% 50% 33% +4 0 1.11 14% 2.3 .31 19% .37 65% .24 0.95 52% 0% 30% -7 +3 0.94 20% 1.3 .26 18% .20 73% .14
Jan
24		 Rhode Island B D A+ F C- 44% 22% 34% C- C- C+ A B+ A+ A+ A A+ F D- A+ B+ C+ 48% 14% 39% D C A+ F C+ F F D F
1.09 50% 56% 29% -2 0 0.98 32% 1.2 .39 15% .47 79% .38 1.24 67% 17% 29% -1 +2 1.02 22% 1.3 .28 7% .52 76% .40
Jan
28		 Davidson D+ A A+ D B+ 40% 18% 43% B+ A- A F F F A+ F+ A+ A+ B+ C+ A+ A+ 18% 33% 49% A+ A+ D+ B+ C+ A- A+ C- A+
1.03 69% 57% 29% +5 +1 1.13 40% 0.3 .13 22% .49 59% .29 0.89 50% 40% 27% -6 -3 0.84 33% 0.9 .31 21% .13 67% .09
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 St. Bonaventure C A+ A+ F B 50% 12% 38% A- B+ B- D+ C+ F C- F D A- C+ F F F 47% 29% 24% C F+ A+ C- A+ B F A+ D-
1.09 73% 67% 25% +6 +2 1.17 32% 1.0 .32 23% .28 67% .18 1.04 57% 62% 45% +11 0 1.22 19% 1.0 .19 20% .44 56% .25
Feb
4		 Duquesne D A+ F A- A- 30% 30% 39% D- B+ C+ F D- F D+ F F C A- A+ D A- 39% 20% 41% A- A- D+ F F F+ D+ D D
1.01 86% 21% 39% +6 -2 1.11 30% 0.7 .20 26% .32 53% .17 1.10 50% 22% 37% -4 0 0.93 32% 1.4 .45 14% .38 76% .29
Feb
7		 Saint Joseph's D+ F+ A- F D+ 33% 35% 33% D D C- C C- B C+ A+ B A C- A+ A+ A+ 21% 19% 60% A A+ F D F A A+ A+ A+
1.00 47% 44% 27% -5 -2 0.87 29% 1.0 .29 13% .23 83% .19 0.86 60% 0% 21% -18 -1 0.64 44% 1.1 .49 23% .09 50% .04
Feb
10		 Richmond D B- F F F 44% 19% 37% A- D- A- D B F A+ D A+ C- F A+ D D+ 28% 15% 57% F D A C+ B+ C C+ F C-
1.00 63% 25% 19% -9 +1 0.86 38% 1.1 .41 21% .54 67% .36 1.17 73% 25% 39% +6 0 1.15 19% 1.0 .19 14% .32 84% .27
Feb
13		 George Washington F D F C D- 33% 15% 52% C+ D- D- C- D C- F D F C- C F C- D+ 43% 7% 50% C D+ A- B A- D B- F C-
0.90 53% 14% 33% -6 0 0.91 23% 1.0 .23 19% .13 67% .08 1.23 60% 100% 35% +5 +2 1.17 31% 1.0 .31 15% .28 86% .24
Feb
18		 Dayton C+ D F+ A+ B- 34% 36% 30% D- C F C F A+ A+ A+ A+ F F+ B F F 43% 15% 41% C+ F B F C- F+ B- A+ A
1.07 50% 29% 50% +1 -2 1.00 17% 1.0 .17 14% .41 82% .34 1.31 70% 29% 53% +15 +1 1.35 25% 1.4 .36 13% .38 62% .24



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.3 0.8 1.1 2nd
3rd 2.4 23.3 12.2 0.7 38.6 3rd
4th 0.1 13.4 12.5 0.5 26.6 4th
5th 1.5 16.7 1.8 0.0 20.0 5th
6th 4.8 4.7 0.0 9.5 6th
7th 3.3 0.0 3.4 7th
8th 0.8 0.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 10.6 37.3 37.7 13.0 1.6 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 1.6% 8.6% 7.3% 1.3% 11.2 0.1 0.0 1.4 1.4%
12-6 13.0% 5.0% 5.0% 0.1% 11.7 0.2 0.4 0.0 12.3 0.1%
11-7 37.7% 3.3% 3.3% 11.9 0.3 0.8 0.2 36.4
10-8 37.3% 1.5% 1.5% 12.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 36.7
9-9 10.6% 0.8% 0.8% 12.4 0.1 0.0 10.5
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 11.9 97.3 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.3 73.5 26.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 4.2% 11.0 4.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6% 1.1% 11.0 1.1
Lose Out 5.0%