George Mason
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+7.1#82
Expected Predictive Rating+1.8#140
Pace65.2#272
Improvement+2.2#65

Offense
Total Offense+1.0#142
First Shot-1.1#207
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#59
Layup/Dunks+2.5#91
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#265
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.4#340
Freethrows+3.3#28
Improvement+0.3#151

Defense
Total Defense+6.0#36
First Shot+5.8#27
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#166
Layups/Dunks+5.9#28
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#176
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#230
Freethrows+0.6#144
Improvement+1.9#49
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.4% 12.8% 7.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.5% 0.6% 0.1%
Average Seed 11.4 11.4 11.7
.500 or above 96.1% 96.9% 88.1%
.500 or above in Conference 88.6% 89.3% 82.6%
Conference Champion 13.8% 14.3% 9.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.3% 0.8%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
First Round12.2% 12.6% 7.9%
Second Round3.4% 3.5% 1.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.0% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mount St. Mary's (Home) - 90.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 23 - 33 - 7
Quad 37 - 311 - 10
Quad 410 - 121 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 274   NC Central W 75-58 93%     1 - 0 +7.7 -1.6 +9.8
  Nov 08, 2024 17   @ Marquette L 63-82 15%     1 - 1 -0.7 -4.1 +4.2
  Nov 11, 2024 306   Stony Brook W 94-56 94%     2 - 1 +27.0 +15.5 +11.8
  Nov 13, 2024 237   Central Michigan L 69-70 90%     2 - 2 -8.2 -4.8 -3.5
  Nov 16, 2024 182   @ East Carolina L 77-78 2OT 69%     2 - 3 +1.0 -2.5 +3.6
  Nov 20, 2024 362   Coppin St. W 93-55 99%     3 - 3 +17.9 +20.6 -0.1
  Nov 29, 2024 135   @ James Madison W 66-61 60%     4 - 3 +9.5 +0.2 +9.7
  Dec 03, 2024 176   UNC Asheville W 74-52 85%     5 - 3 +18.2 +2.3 +17.3
  Dec 07, 2024 202   Tulane W 76-64 87%     6 - 3 +7.1 +5.9 +2.1
  Dec 17, 2024 2   @ Duke L 47-68 6%     6 - 4 +3.7 -7.3 +8.7
  Dec 22, 2024 292   Penn W 85-53 93%     7 - 4 +22.0 +7.5 +15.1
  Dec 28, 2024 234   Mount St. Mary's W 75-61 91%    
  Dec 31, 2024 122   Davidson W 72-64 76%    
  Jan 04, 2025 93   @ Rhode Island L 71-72 45%    
  Jan 08, 2025 216   Richmond W 74-61 89%    
  Jan 11, 2025 203   Massachusetts W 76-64 87%    
  Jan 15, 2025 48   @ Dayton L 63-70 27%    
  Jan 18, 2025 136   George Washington W 75-66 79%    
  Jan 21, 2025 87   @ St. Bonaventure L 63-65 41%    
  Jan 29, 2025 121   Loyola Chicago W 71-64 76%    
  Feb 01, 2025 122   @ Davidson W 69-67 55%    
  Feb 05, 2025 136   @ George Washington W 72-69 60%    
  Feb 08, 2025 93   Rhode Island W 74-69 66%    
  Feb 11, 2025 137   @ Saint Louis W 74-71 60%    
  Feb 15, 2025 86   Saint Joseph's W 70-67 62%    
  Feb 22, 2025 57   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 62-67 31%    
  Feb 26, 2025 178   Fordham W 75-64 84%    
  Mar 01, 2025 163   @ Duquesne W 66-62 65%    
  Mar 05, 2025 165   La Salle W 75-65 82%    
  Mar 08, 2025 216   @ Richmond W 71-64 73%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.3 3.5 4.5 3.1 1.1 0.2 13.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.8 5.4 5.4 2.2 0.3 0.0 15.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 5.5 5.6 1.9 0.2 0.0 14.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.6 5.8 1.9 0.2 0.0 13.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.3 5.7 2.2 0.2 0.0 11.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 4.8 2.6 0.3 0.0 9.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.2 2.8 0.4 0.0 6.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.8 2.6 0.6 0.0 5.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 2.1 0.8 0.0 3.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.0 0.1 2.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.0 12th
13th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 15th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.2 5.7 8.6 12.5 14.9 15.6 14.4 11.0 6.9 3.4 1.1 0.2 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 98.9% 1.1    1.1 0.1 0.0
16-2 89.8% 3.1    2.4 0.7 0.0
15-3 64.6% 4.5    2.5 1.7 0.4 0.0
14-4 32.1% 3.5    1.1 1.5 0.8 0.1 0.0
13-5 9.0% 1.3    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-6 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.8% 13.8 7.3 4.4 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 66.2% 40.3% 26.0% 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 43.5%
17-1 1.1% 49.9% 33.2% 16.7% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 25.0%
16-2 3.4% 34.0% 30.0% 4.0% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.1 2.3 5.7%
15-3 6.9% 26.1% 25.0% 1.1% 11.1 0.0 0.1 1.3 0.3 5.1 1.5%
14-4 11.0% 21.1% 21.0% 0.1% 11.4 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.9 0.0 0.0 8.7 0.2%
13-5 14.4% 16.5% 16.4% 0.1% 11.6 0.0 1.0 1.3 0.1 12.1 0.1%
12-6 15.6% 11.0% 11.0% 11.8 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.1 13.9
11-7 14.9% 7.7% 7.6% 0.0% 12.0 0.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 13.7 0.0%
10-8 12.5% 5.3% 5.3% 12.2 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 11.8
9-9 8.6% 3.5% 3.5% 12.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 8.3
8-10 5.7% 2.4% 2.4% 12.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.6
7-11 3.2% 1.5% 1.5% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2
6-12 1.5% 0.8% 0.8% 14.3 0.0 0.0 1.5
5-13 0.6% 0.6
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 12.4% 11.9% 0.5% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 5.2 5.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 87.6 0.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 4.3 10.0 16.7 30.0 23.3 16.7 3.3