Gonzaga
West Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+19.9#4
Expected Predictive Rating+14.9#32
Pace73.7#68
Improvement-6.2#363

Offense
Total Offense+12.6#3
First Shot+10.6#4
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#71
Layup/Dunks+8.1#5
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#240
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#165
Freethrows+3.2#33
Improvement-4.4#361

Defense
Total Defense+7.3#18
First Shot+3.8#68
After Offensive Rebounds+3.4#5
Layups/Dunks-1.5#232
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#167
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#34
Freethrows+1.2#95
Improvement-1.8#307
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2.5% 3.3% 0.8%
#1 Seed 17.5% 21.4% 9.1%
Top 2 Seed 36.0% 42.9% 21.6%
Top 4 Seed 64.7% 71.6% 50.2%
Top 6 Seed 82.7% 87.7% 72.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.0% 99.5% 97.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 96.5% 98.3% 93.3%
Average Seed 3.9 3.5 4.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 89.0% 90.1% 86.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.5% 0.3% 1.1%
First Round98.8% 99.5% 97.5%
Second Round89.2% 91.5% 84.1%
Sweet Sixteen62.4% 66.1% 54.7%
Elite Eight38.3% 41.6% 31.2%
Final Four22.0% 24.2% 17.4%
Championship Game12.1% 13.4% 9.4%
National Champion6.5% 7.2% 4.9%

Next Game: UCLA (Neutral) - 67.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b4 - 25 - 4
Quad 28 - 113 - 5
Quad 36 - 019 - 5
Quad 49 - 028 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 12   Baylor W 101-63 74%     1 - 0 +51.0 +30.8 +20.0
  Nov 10, 2024 59   Arizona St. W 88-80 89%     2 - 0 +14.3 +17.4 -3.2
  Nov 15, 2024 144   Umass Lowell W 113-54 97%     3 - 0 +56.6 +19.4 +28.2
  Nov 18, 2024 38   @ San Diego St. W 80-67 69%     4 - 0 +27.8 +17.7 +10.2
  Nov 20, 2024 258   Long Beach St. W 84-41 99%     5 - 0 +34.7 +15.2 +24.1
  Nov 27, 2024 39   West Virginia L 78-86 OT 78%     5 - 1 +3.7 +5.3 -0.9
  Nov 28, 2024 51   Indiana W 89-73 81%     6 - 1 +26.5 +15.7 +9.9
  Nov 29, 2024 122   Davidson W 90-65 94%     7 - 1 +27.5 +14.7 +12.2
  Dec 07, 2024 16   Kentucky L 89-90 OT 66%     7 - 2 +14.5 +16.3 -1.8
  Dec 14, 2024 10   Connecticut L 71-77 62%     7 - 3 +10.7 +3.5 +7.1
  Dec 18, 2024 238   Nicholls St. W 102-72 99%     8 - 3 +22.7 +16.3 +3.5
  Dec 21, 2024 266   Bucknell W 86-65 99%     9 - 3 +12.4 +4.3 +6.2
  Dec 28, 2024 20   UCLA W 75-70 68%    
  Dec 30, 2024 204   @ Pepperdine W 88-69 96%    
  Jan 02, 2025 314   Portland W 94-63 99.8%   
  Jan 04, 2025 157   @ Loyola Marymount W 84-67 94%    
  Jan 08, 2025 316   San Diego W 94-62 99.9%   
  Jan 11, 2025 74   Washington St. W 88-73 92%    
  Jan 16, 2025 69   @ Oregon St. W 78-69 80%    
  Jan 18, 2025 72   Santa Clara W 87-72 92%    
  Jan 25, 2025 314   @ Portland W 91-66 99%    
  Jan 28, 2025 69   Oregon St. W 81-66 91%    
  Feb 01, 2025 53   @ St. Mary's W 76-69 73%    
  Feb 06, 2025 157   Loyola Marymount W 87-64 98%    
  Feb 08, 2025 301   @ Pacific W 90-65 99%    
  Feb 13, 2025 61   San Francisco W 82-68 91%    
  Feb 15, 2025 204   Pepperdine W 91-66 99%    
  Feb 19, 2025 74   @ Washington St. W 85-76 80%    
  Feb 22, 2025 53   St. Mary's W 79-66 87%    
  Feb 27, 2025 72   @ Santa Clara W 84-75 80%    
  Mar 01, 2025 61   @ San Francisco W 79-71 78%    
Projected Record 26 - 5 16 - 2




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 3.0 11.8 23.9 30.2 19.8 89.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 3.4 2.7 0.7 8.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.5 0.0 2.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.7 6.8 14.5 24.6 30.2 19.8 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 19.8    19.8
17-1 100.0% 30.2    29.8 0.4
16-2 97.2% 23.9    21.3 2.7 0.0
15-3 81.4% 11.8    7.5 4.0 0.3
14-4 43.4% 3.0    0.9 1.4 0.6 0.0
13-5 9.5% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 89.0% 89.0 79.3 8.6 1.0 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 19.8% 100.0% 80.2% 19.8% 1.6 10.4 6.9 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
17-1 30.2% 100.0% 75.3% 24.7% 2.6 6.5 9.6 7.4 4.7 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
16-2 24.6% 99.8% 70.1% 29.6% 4.3 0.5 2.1 4.7 7.4 5.0 2.9 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.3%
15-3 14.5% 98.8% 65.5% 33.3% 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.6 3.2 3.5 3.0 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.2 96.6%
14-4 6.8% 96.5% 57.8% 38.7% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.5 1.7 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.2 91.8%
13-5 2.7% 91.2% 46.1% 45.0% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.2 83.7%
12-6 1.0% 80.1% 35.6% 44.6% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 69.2%
11-7 0.2% 69.6% 28.7% 40.9% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 57.3%
10-8 0.1% 53.3% 23.3% 30.0% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 39.1%
9-9 0.0% 0.0 0.0
8-10 0.0% 0.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.0% 71.1% 27.9% 3.9 17.5 18.6 14.5 14.2 10.1 8.0 6.3 4.5 3.0 1.9 0.5 0.0 1.0 96.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 11.8% 100.0% 1.4 63.5 32.2 4.1 0.2 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.6% 100.0% 1.9 38.6 40.0 18.2 3.1 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.2% 100.0% 2.0 31.1 44.8 19.5 4.4 0.2