Gonzaga
West Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +20.3 #10
Expected Predictive Rating +26.7 #7
Pace 74.3 #57
Improvement -4.7 #359

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #4 A+ A- A C- D+
Defense #17 A+ A+ A- B- A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #128 1.40 #8 +6.0 #24
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #63 0.91 #25 +4.5 #18
Three Pointers 33% #327 1.19 #15 -1.2 #225
1st FG Attempt 1.20 #15 +9.3 #14
Freethrows 17.2 #201 70% #267 12.0 #210
Second Chance 36.8% #33 1.13 #85 0.42 #33
Turnovers 13.4% #25
Total Offense +11.9 #4

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 28% #356 1.06 #66 +7.7 #12
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% #15 0.65 #54 -1.7 #297
Three Pointers 43% #116 0.86 #30 +2.2 #104
1st FG Attempt 0.85 #11 +8.2 #11
Freethrows 16.6 #155 66% #15 11.0 #288
Second Chance 23.2% #8 0.90 #31 0.21 #11
Turnovers 20.1% #29
Total Defense +8.3 #17

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.3% #269 -3.7% #10
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 19.8% #3 -12.7% #16
Possession Length 15.0 #25 18.3 #325
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 #36 0.12 #35
Improvement -0.1 #193 -4.6 #362

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.2% 1.3% 0.1%
#1 Seed 10.9% 11.5% 1.3%
Top 2 Seed 28.9% 30.5% 6.7%
Top 4 Seed 76.0% 77.8% 49.0%
Top 6 Seed 96.7% 97.1% 90.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 99.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.8% 99.8% 99.5%
Average Seed 3.5 3.4 4.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 91.8% 92.6% 80.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
Second Round93.8% 94.2% 88.1%
Sweet Sixteen63.5% 64.2% 53.8%
Elite Eight33.1% 33.7% 23.5%
Final Four16.3% 16.7% 11.8%
Championship Game7.6% 7.8% 5.4%
National Champion3.3% 3.3% 2.1%

Next Game: Washington St. (Away) - 93.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 12 - 1
Quad 1b4 - 05 - 2
Quad 28 - 013 - 2
Quad 39 - 023 - 2
Quad 48 - 031 - 2


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 335 Texas Southern W 98 - 43 100%  +20  1 - 0 +41 +16 C+ A+ D- +23 A+ A A+
 Sat, Nov 8 48 Oklahoma W 83 - 68 87%  +13  2 - 0 +23 +7 B C+ A+ +15 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 11 37 Creighton W 90 - 63 83%  +11  3 - 0 +37 +18 A+ C A+ +18 A+ A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 14 88 @Arizona St. W 77 - 65 84%  +7  4 - 0 +22 +8 C B C +14 A+ B C
 Mon, Nov 17 329 Southern Utah W 122 - 50 99%  +34  5 - 0 +58 +26 A+ A+ A +22 A+ A+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 13 Alabama W 95 - 85 57%  +1  6 - 0 +28 +19 B+ A+ B- +9 B- A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 107 Maryland W 100 - 61 92%  +19  7 - 0 +43 +31 A+ A+ B +13 A+ B- A+
 Wed, Nov 26 1 Michigan L 61 - 101 27%  -25  7 - 1 -13 -5 C C A+ -4 F A+ A
 Fri, Dec 5 27 Kentucky W 94 - 59 70%  +21  8 - 1 +50 +28 A+ A A+ +21 A+ B+ B-
 Sun, Dec 7 350 North Florida W 109 - 58 100%  +26  9 - 1 +35 +14 A A+ D +16 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 38 UCLA W 82 - 72 75%  +2  10 - 1 +23 +20 A+ F A+ +4 C A+ C
 Wed, Dec 17 199 Campbell W 98 - 70 98%  +14  11 - 1 +23 +7 A+ C+ D +12 B A+ A+
 Sun, Dec 21 65 Oregon W 91 - 82 86%  +4  12 - 1 +18 +25 A+ B- A+ -7 C D+ D+
 Sun, Dec 28 274 @Pepperdine W 96 - 56 98%  +22  13 - 1 1 - 0 +36 +23 A+ B- A+ +13 A+ C- C
 Tue, Dec 30 222 @San Diego W 99 - 93 96%  +10  14 - 1 2 - 0 +6 +14 A- A+ B- -9 F A F
 Fri, Jan 2 120 Seattle W 80 - 72 OT 96%  -6  15 - 1 3 - 0 +8 +5 B- C A+ +2 A- C- B
 Sun, Jan 4 122 Loyola Marymount W 82 - 47 96%  +15  16 - 1 4 - 0 +34 +12 A+ A- A+ +23 A+ A+ B
 Thu, Jan 8 61 Santa Clara W 89 - 77 90%  +6  17 - 1 5 - 0 +18 +14 A+ A+ A +4 A- A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 15 145 @Washington St. W 86 - 70 94% 
 Sat, Jan 17 120 @Seattle W 82 - 67 92% 
 Wed, Jan 21 274 Pepperdine W 90 - 60 100% 
 Sat, Jan 24 100 San Francisco W 85 - 67 95% 
 Sat, Jan 31 41 St. Mary's W 81 - 70 84% 
 Wed, Feb 4 238 @Portland W 91 - 69 98% 
 Sat, Feb 7 182 @Oregon St. W 85 - 66 96% 
 Tue, Feb 10 145 Washington St. W 89 - 67 98% 
 Sat, Feb 14 61 @Santa Clara W 86 - 78 78% 
 Wed, Feb 18 100 @San Francisco W 82 - 70 87% 
 Sat, Feb 21 144 Pacific W 88 - 66 98% 
 Wed, Feb 25 238 Portland W 94 - 66 99% 
 Sat, Feb 28 41 @St. Mary's W 78 - 73 67% 
Totals 29 - 2 17 - 1 +20 +12 A+ A- A +8 A+ A+ A-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 4.4 18.8 37.6 30.5 91.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.5 2.7 7.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.0 7.9 21.5 37.6 30.5 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 30.5    30.5
17-1 100.0% 37.6    35.1 2.4
16-2 87.5% 18.8    13.6 5.2 0.1
15-3 55.9% 4.4    2.1 2.1 0.3
14-4 21.3% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 7.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total 91.8% 91.8 81.5 9.9 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 30.5% 100.0% 80.2% 19.8% 2.1 9.5 12.0 6.9 2.0 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-1 37.6% 100.0% 74.8% 25.2% 3.4 1.3 5.7 13.2 12.6 4.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 21.5% 99.9% 70.0% 29.9% 4.5 0.1 0.4 3.1 7.7 6.7 2.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.7%
15-3 7.9% 99.8% 63.2% 36.6% 5.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.5 2.5 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 99.5%
14-4 2.0% 99.7% 58.7% 41.0% 6.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.4%
13-5 0.4% 98.8% 43.8% 55.0% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.8%
12-6 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 74.0% 25.9% 3.5 0.1 99.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 24.5% 100.0% 1.9 35.6 42.0 19.2 3.2 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.4% 100.0% 2.7 12.9 30.6 35.2 18.3 3.0 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.7% 100.0% 2.9 11.7 22.0 37.3 24.1 4.2 0.6