Hofstra
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +4.2 106
Results Rating +2.8 119
Pace 63.4 319
Improvement +2.0 106

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 103 C B- C+ C D
Defense C+ 132 B C D C B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% 343 C 57% 188 -4.6 333
2 Pt. Jumpers 36% 198 D 34% 304 +0.4 152
Three Pointers 45% 97 B 37% 44 +4.3 50
Shot Selection/Accuracy D -1.0 306 C+ +1.0 130
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 175
Second Chance B- 33.6% 86 C+ 1.07 113 B- 0.36 77
Turnovers C+ 16.2% 146
Freethrows C- 0.29 231 B 76% 56 C 0.22 175
Total Offense C+ +2.7 103

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 50% 149 C- 11.9% 238
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 26% 154 D+ 7.1% 302
Three Pointers F 68% 363 C- 1.1% 251
Total C- 53% 243 C- 5.9% 216

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 318 B+ 52% 38 -5.3 38
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 65 B- 36% 88 +0.8 252
Three Pointers 43% 120 C+ 33% 120 +0.2 192
Shot Selection/Accuracy B -0.8 53 B -3.4 53
1st FG Attempt B 0.93 47
Second Chance C 30.3% 175 C 1.03 191 C 0.31 185
Turnovers D 14.5% 317
Freethrows C 0.30 182 C 72% 164 C 0.22 174
Total Defense C+ +1.4 132

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 52% 269 B- 13.8% 72
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 34% 315 C 4.6% 187
Three Pointers C- 86% 232 C- 0.6% 217
Total D+ 60% 288 C 6.0% 147

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.6 306 17.4 204
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 326 0.13 50
Improvement +0.7 #149 +1.3 #108

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 119 105 92
Results Rating Rank 138 118 86
Conference Record 11 - 7 12 - 6 12 - 6
Conference Finish 4 3 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 12
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29% 30% 25%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.5 12.9
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round29% 30% 25%
Second Round3% 3% 2%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Stony Brook (Home) - 83.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 22 - 3
Quad 37 - 59 - 8
Quad 411 - 320 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 51 @Central Florida L 78 - 82 19% -1  29% 0 - 1 B +10 B- +4 B- C- C+ B+ +6 A- F+ A+
 Fri, Nov 7 249 @Iona L 73 - 81 72% -14  0% 0 - 2 D -10 D- -7 C- D+ F+ C- -3 C D B
 Fri, Nov 14 330 @Bucknell W 83 - 77 87% +2  56% 1 - 2 C- -2 C +0 C+ F B- C- -3 C+ F B+
 Wed, Nov 19 156 @Temple L 76 - 81 55% -1  31% 1 - 3 C- -2 C +1 B- D- C+ D+ -3 F+ A+ B
 Fri, Nov 28 200 La Salle W 63 - 58 73% +3  82% 2 - 3 C+ +3 D- -8 C- F D A +11 A- D B+
 Sat, Nov 29 160 Merrimack W 78 - 58 66% +12  93% 3 - 3 A +20 B+ +8 B D- D A+ +13 B+ A+ D
 Sun, Nov 30 169 @Penn W 77 - 60 57% +4  58% 4 - 3 A +19 B+ +8 A- A F A+ +13 A+ F+ D+
 Wed, Dec 3 203 @Columbia L 70 - 72 64% -6  0% 4 - 4 C -1 C- -1 D A- D C -0 D+ A+ D-
 Sun, Dec 7 98 @Pittsburgh W 80 - 73 35% +7  86% 5 - 4 A- +15 A+ +19 A+ C A+ D+ -3 F A C
 Sat, Dec 13 73 @Syracuse W 70 - 69 26% +0  42% 6 - 4 B+ +12 A +14 A+ B B- C- -2 B F C
 Sun, Dec 21 192 Quinnipiac W 74 - 66 81% +2  60% 7 - 4 C+ +3 C+ +2 F A+ D C+ +1 A+ F F
 Mon, Dec 29 197 Campbell W 86 - 72 81% +12  81% 8 - 4 1 - 0 B +9 A +12 C+ A+ F+ C- -2 A F F
 Sat, Jan 3 221 @Drexel W 70 - 67 67% +8  97% 9 - 4 2 - 0 C+ +3 A- +10 B- A+ C+ D- -7 B D+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 170 @Towson W 78 - 67 57% +7  79% 10 - 4 3 - 0 B+ +13 A- +10 D+ A+ A- B +4 B+ D+ B
 Sat, Jan 10 199 Monmouth W 67 - 64 OT 81% -1  49% 11 - 4 4 - 0 C- -2 F -10 F D+ B A- +8 A+ B+ C-
 Thu, Jan 15 214 @Stony Brook L 71 - 76 66% -6  10% 11 - 5 4 - 1 D+ -5 B+ +9 C+ C A- F -15 F+ D- F
 Sat, Jan 17 227 Elon L 85 - 89 85% -3  22% 11 - 6 4 - 2 D -11 B +7 A F+ C- F -18 F B- F
 Thu, Jan 22 273 @N.C. A&T L 78 - 79 76% +5  66% 11 - 7 4 - 3 C- -4 B- +5 D C- A F+ -9 B- F F
 Sat, Jan 24 136 @William & Mary L 82 - 89 49% -5  27% 11 - 8 4 - 4 C- -2 A +11 C- A- A+ F -14 C- F F
 Thu, Jan 29 149 College of Charleston L 64 - 66 74% +3  73% 11 - 9 4 - 5 C- -5 F+ -10 F B C- B +5 A+ F+ F+
 Sat, Jan 31 199 @Monmouth W 73 - 57 63% +10  99% 12 - 9 5 - 5 A- +17 B- +5 B+ A+ F A+ +13 A A+ F
 Thu, Feb 5 292 Northeastern W 80 - 63 91% +10  98% 13 - 9 6 - 5 B- +6 C +1 D B+ B B+ +6 D+ A+ C+
 Sat, Feb 7 170 Towson W 71 - 49 77% +18  95% 14 - 9 7 - 5 A +18 B +6 C B+ B+ A+ +16 A- A+ C+
 Thu, Feb 12 149 @College of Charleston W 66 - 62 53% +4  79% 15 - 9 8 - 5 B- +7 D- -6 D- F D+ A+ +14 A A C-
 Sat, Feb 14 108 @UNC Wilmington L 66 - 70 40% -0  35% 15 - 10 8 - 6 C+ +3 B- +4 D+ C- B+ C- -2 C- A- F
 Thu, Feb 19 259 Hampton W 79 - 43 88% +14  89% 16 - 10 9 - 6 A+ +27 A +13 B+ A+ A- A+ +19 A+ A B
 Sat, Feb 21 292 @Northeastern W 82 - 68 80% +10  92% 17 - 10 10 - 6 B +9 A- +10 C+ D+ A+ C+ +1 A F F
 Sat, Feb 28 214 Stony Brook W 74 - 64 83%
 Tue, Mar 3 221 Drexel W 72 - 61 84%
Totals 19 - 10 12 - 6 +4 C+ +3 B+ C+ D C+ +1 B B C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ C D B C+ 31% 36% 45% D C B- C+ B- C+ C- B C C+ B+ B- C+ B 33% 24% 43% B B C C C D C C C
1.13 57% 34% 37% +1 -1 1.02 34% 1.1 .36 16% .29 76% .22 1.07 52% 36% 33% -3 -1 0.93 30% 1.0 .31 14% .30 72% .21
Nov
3		 Central Florida B- A D F+ B- 41% 22% 37% C+ B- A F C- C+ A+ A+ A+ B+ A A+ C A+ 53% 9% 38% F A- F B- F+ A+ F A+ F
1.07 70% 36% 28% +1 0 1.04 35% 0.7 .24 16% .40 88% .35 1.13 50% 25% 35% -5 +3 0.98 47% 1.1 .53 22% .63 61% .39
Nov
7		 Iona D- B+ F F D+ 45% 13% 42% B C- B- F+ D+ F+ B F D+ C- D A+ D+ C 37% 15% 48% C- C F+ C+ D B F B F
0.98 67% 29% 27% -2 +1 1.02 37% 0.8 .29 20% .30 56% .17 1.08 63% 13% 36% -1 +1 1.02 31% 1.0 .31 20% .45 67% .30
Nov
14		 Bucknell C C B- A+ B+ 20% 33% 47% F C+ D F F B- A+ F A+ C- F A+ A C+ 31% 19% 50% B- C+ F F F B+ F F F
1.11 60% 44% 43% +9 -3 1.14 29% 0.8 .24 16% .51 66% .34 1.03 67% 22% 25% -7 0 0.88 32% 1.6 .53 23% .36 86% .31
Nov
19		 Temple C A C+ B- B+ 25% 30% 45% F B- D+ F D- C+ F A+ D D+ F B F F 33% 33% 35% A F+ A+ A+ A+ B F D+ F
1.09 71% 41% 36% +6 -2 1.09 26% 0.8 .21 14% .22 85% .19 1.17 73% 33% 44% +9 -2 1.15 21% 0.7 .14 16% .53 77% .41
Nov
28		 La Salle D- D- A- C+ C+ 28% 26% 46% F+ C- C- F F D D F F+ A A+ F+ A+ A 52% 23% 25% D- A- C F+ D B+ A+ D A
0.95 50% 46% 35% 0 -1 1.00 28% 0.7 .19 20% .21 55% .11 0.87 40% 45% 25% -11 +1 0.81 34% 1.1 .37 21% .23 75% .17
Nov
29		 Merrimack B+ A+ F A+ B+ 33% 24% 43% D+ B D D D- D B- A+ A A+ A A+ B- A- 30% 11% 59% B- B+ B- A+ A+ D A+ F A
1.16 69% 8% 43% +2 -1 1.04 37% 0.9 .33 21% .38 85% .32 0.86 44% 17% 31% -9 +1 0.85 22% 0.4 .10 13% .24 86% .21
Nov
30		 Penn B+ A+ D- C A 43% 29% 29% D A- B- A+ A F A A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 27% 50% 23% A+ A+ D+ F F+ D+ B- C B-
1.15 83% 33% 33% +9 -1 1.19 35% 1.3 .43 22% .35 94% .33 0.90 29% 23% 25% -19 -5 0.56 33% 1.2 .40 15% .30 71% .21
Dec
3		 Columbia C- F B+ B+ D- 50% 18% 32% B D C A+ A- D A D- B+ C C B- F D- 29% 24% 47% A+ D+ B A+ A+ D- D+ D D+
1.06 40% 44% 38% -6 +1 0.92 29% 1.4 .40 15% .39 68% .27 1.09 57% 33% 43% +5 -1 1.10 31% 0.6 .20 18% .30 75% .22
Dec
7		 Pittsburgh A+ B A+ A+ A+ 47% 17% 36% B A+ B F+ C A+ B+ B- B+ D+ A+ F F F 26% 23% 51% A F B+ A+ A C F F F
1.30 64% 50% 47% +12 +1 1.28 31% 0.8 .23 11% .33 78% .26 1.19 45% 60% 45% +11 -1 1.21 31% 0.8 .23 16% .43 86% .37
Dec
13		 Syracuse A D+ F A+ A+ 38% 27% 35% D A+ C- A+ B B- F A+ F C- C+ F B B 32% 21% 47% B+ B F C+ F C C+ A+ B+
1.20 50% 15% 65% +7 -1 1.15 30% 1.4 .41 17% .12 100% .12 1.19 60% 50% 32% +2 -1 1.04 44% 1.0 .44 15% .33 56% .18
Dec
21		 Quinnipiac C+ F C- F F 38% 12% 50% B- F A+ A+ A+ D A+ C+ A+ C+ A- C- A+ A+ 37% 21% 42% C- A+ B+ F F F D- D- F+
1.10 42% 33% 24% -14 +1 0.76 48% 1.3 .64 19% .42 74% .31 0.98 47% 36% 14% -17 0 0.67 27% 1.6 .44 12% .34 75% .25
Dec
29		 Campbell A B D B C+ 38% 19% 44% C C+ A+ A+ A+ F+ B+ D- B- C- C A+ A+ A+ 46% 14% 40% C A B- F F F C+ B B-
1.30 67% 33% 38% +5 0 1.13 50% 1.8 .89 21% .36 68% .25 1.09 57% 14% 20% -12 +1 0.80 32% 1.5 .46 11% .37 68% .25
Jan
3		 Drexel A- D- A+ B- B- 41% 20% 39% B- B- C+ A+ A+ C+ B- D- C D- A B- D+ A- 44% 18% 38% D B C D- D+ F F A- D
1.18 50% 56% 35% +1 0 1.05 33% 1.6 .53 15% .34 71% .24 1.13 45% 33% 37% -5 +1 0.94 29% 1.0 .29 5% .36 60% .21
Jan
8		 Towson A- C+ F B+ C 27% 30% 43% F+ D+ B A+ A+ A- A+ A A+ B A+ A F B- 16% 45% 39% A+ B+ C D D+ B F F F
1.16 58% 23% 37% -3 -2 0.93 31% 1.5 .47 12% .54 78% .42 1.00 25% 30% 40% -5 -5 0.82 37% 0.9 .34 19% .46 76% .35
Jan
10		 Monmouth F F D- F F 27% 27% 46% F F B- F D+ B A+ A+ A+ A- A+ A+ B- A+ 29% 29% 42% B A+ A+ F B+ C- F D F
0.94 31% 31% 23% -17 -2 0.65 35% 0.8 .26 17% .56 88% .49 0.90 40% 20% 32% -12 -2 0.75 20% 1.3 .24 17% .39 78% .30
Jan
15		 Stony Brook B+ D F A+ C+ 27% 21% 52% D C+ B D C A- F A D F C- C F F 33% 20% 47% B F+ F C D- F D+ B+ C
1.20 54% 20% 44% +3 -1 1.06 37% 0.8 .29 12% .21 82% .17 1.28 56% 40% 43% +6 0 1.14 36% 0.9 .33 12% .29 67% .19
Jan
17		 Elon B D- A+ A+ A+ 17% 31% 52% F A B F F+ C- A B A F F+ C+ F F 52% 7% 41% D- F C B B- F F F F
1.28 50% 53% 48% +14 -3 1.25 38% 0.7 .26 17% .38 76% .29 1.34 67% 33% 42% +9 +3 1.26 32% 0.9 .29 11% .45 81% .37
Jan
22		 N.C. A&T B- C- F+ B+ C- 17% 30% 53% F D C- C- C- A C+ B+ B F+ B+ F A- C- 13% 39% 48% A+ B- F F+ F F F C+ F
1.18 56% 31% 39% +2 -3 1.00 26% 1.0 .26 9% .33 75% .25 1.20 50% 50% 27% -1 -4 0.91 44% 1.3 .56 14% .61 74% .46
Jan
24		 William & Mary A F F A+ C- 35% 13% 53% C C- A- C+ A- A+ D+ A+ B- F C A+ F D+ 27% 11% 63% B+ C- F C+ F F A+ F A
1.22 47% 14% 41% -1 +1 1.02 39% 1.1 .41 12% .25 87% .22 1.33 60% 17% 40% +4 0 1.11 38% 1.1 .43 7% .21 85% .18
Jan
29		 College of Charleston F+ F F F+ F 32% 23% 45% C F A D+ B C- F F F B A+ D- A+ A+ 47% 24% 29% D+ A+ F C+ F+ F+ D+ A+ B+
0.94 44% 23% 28% -12 -1 0.77 41% 0.9 .35 15% .09 40% .03 0.96 42% 42% 13% -16 0 0.71 38% 1.1 .40 13% .37 59% .22
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Monmouth B- C+ A+ A A 23% 27% 50% F B+ A- A+ A+ F F+ A D A+ A- F A+ B+ 25% 45% 30% A+ A A+ B+ A+ F A+ C+ A+
1.12 60% 50% 41% +9 -2 1.16 40% 1.6 .64 29% .22 80% .17 0.88 46% 46% 19% -6 -4 0.81 19% 0.9 .16 9% .19 73% .14
Feb
5		 Northeastern C A- C D C- 32% 26% 42% F+ D A- C B+ B F+ A D B+ B- F D F+ 27% 27% 46% A+ D+ A+ B- A+ C+ C+ B B-
1.21 71% 43% 32% +4 -1 1.08 40% 1.0 .40 15% .27 80% .21 0.95 54% 54% 36% +5 -2 1.08 10% 1.0 .10 18% .26 64% .17
Feb
7		 Towson B F F+ A+ B- 25% 33% 42% F C B B B+ B+ B- B+ B A+ A+ C+ F A 39% 30% 32% C- A- A A+ A+ C+ F A+ D+
1.15 42% 31% 45% +1 -3 0.98 32% 1.1 .35 13% .30 75% .22 0.79 24% 38% 43% -9 -1 0.82 28% 0.3 .07 18% .37 58% .22
Feb
12		 College of Charleston D- B- D- F D- 22% 25% 53% D D- C F F D+ A+ B- A+ A+ A+ A+ C A+ 23% 23% 54% B+ A A+ D+ A C- B- F C-
0.94 64% 31% 26% -7 -2 0.84 31% 0.5 .14 16% .44 73% .32 0.88 42% 17% 32% -10 -1 0.79 18% 1.1 .20 16% .32 84% .27
Feb
14		 UNC Wilmington B- A+ F B+ C 17% 38% 46% F D+ C+ F+ C- B+ A+ C- A+ C- F+ D B D 30% 38% 33% A+ C- B A- A- F F A F
1.08 75% 22% 36% -1 -4 0.92 28% 0.9 .25 11% .43 74% .31 1.15 67% 40% 31% +2 -3 1.00 29% 0.9 .26 10% .65 61% .40
Feb
19		 Hampton A A+ D+ D+ B+ 45% 18% 37% B- B+ C+ A+ A+ A- F A F A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 34% 28% 38% C A+ D- A+ A B A+ A A+
1.29 78% 33% 32% +7 +1 1.18 31% 1.6 .50 13% .15 75% .11 0.70 41% 21% 16% -21 -1 0.58 38% 0.5 .19 21% .23 64% .15
Feb
21		 Northeastern A- D+ A+ A B- 29% 22% 49% F+ C+ F A+ D+ A+ B D- C+ C+ B- C+ A+ A 38% 26% 36% A- A D F F F A- C+ B+
1.28 57% 55% 42% +9 -1 1.18 21% 1.3 .27 9% .38 68% .26 1.06 55% 36% 21% -9 -1 0.83 30% 1.3 .40 9% .21 67% .14



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 20.5 20.5 2nd
3rd 0.3 23.8 50.0 74.1 3rd
4th 1.5 2.9 4.4 4th
5th 0.9 0.9 5th
6th 0.1 0.1 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 2.9 26.7 70.5 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 70.5% 30.9% 30.9% 12.5 0.1 11.3 9.8 0.4 48.7
11-7 26.7% 26.3% 26.3% 12.9 0.0 1.6 4.7 0.7 0.0 19.7
10-8 2.9% 17.4% 17.4% 13.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.4
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 29.3% 29.3% 0.0% 12.6 70.7 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 21.8% 100.0% 12.5 0.7 52.1 45.2 2.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 13.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 17.4%
Lose Out 0.7%