Hofstra
Colonial Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.3#149
Expected Predictive Rating+4.7#104
Pace63.7#313
Improvement-1.3#267

Offense
Total Offense-2.7#246
First Shot+0.5#159
After Offensive Rebound-3.2#335
Layup/Dunks-0.8#212
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#219
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#92
Freethrows-0.6#221
Improvement-2.6#337

Defense
Total Defense+3.0#95
First Shot+2.3#107
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#119
Layups/Dunks+2.2#88
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#15
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#288
Freethrows+0.1#181
Improvement+1.3#86
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.2% 13.7% 10.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.3 13.7
.500 or above 88.8% 94.1% 81.7%
.500 or above in Conference 84.2% 87.1% 80.1%
Conference Champion 17.4% 19.9% 14.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.6% 1.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round12.2% 13.7% 10.1%
Second Round1.0% 1.2% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Quinnipiac (Away) - 57.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 38 - 69 - 8
Quad 410 - 419 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 247   Iona W 90-76 78%     1 - 0 +6.2 +11.6 -5.9
  Nov 13, 2024 115   Seton Hall W 49-48 40%     2 - 0 +3.9 -7.4 +11.5
  Nov 16, 2024 203   @ Massachusetts W 75-71 OT 47%     3 - 0 +5.1 +0.9 +4.1
  Nov 19, 2024 70   @ Florida St. L 61-79 16%     3 - 1 -7.2 -5.3 -2.1
  Nov 22, 2024 5   @ Houston L 44-80 3%     3 - 2 -13.3 -11.5 -5.8
  Nov 29, 2024 186   Rice W 68-63 OT 56%     4 - 2 +3.7 -7.2 +10.7
  Nov 30, 2024 285   Tarleton St. L 59-61 75%     4 - 3 -8.7 -5.6 -3.4
  Dec 01, 2024 105   Arkansas St. W 68-66 34%     5 - 3 +6.4 +1.4 +5.1
  Dec 09, 2024 184   @ Norfolk St. W 80-67 44%     6 - 3 +14.8 +14.2 +1.7
  Dec 15, 2024 124   Temple L 42-60 54%     6 - 4 -18.7 -27.2 +7.0
  Dec 29, 2024 249   @ Quinnipiac W 70-68 58%    
  Jan 02, 2025 221   William & Mary W 78-71 73%    
  Jan 04, 2025 170   @ Northeastern L 65-67 42%    
  Jan 09, 2025 117   College of Charleston W 70-69 51%    
  Jan 11, 2025 134   UNC Wilmington W 68-66 56%    
  Jan 16, 2025 209   @ Towson L 59-60 49%    
  Jan 20, 2025 154   @ Drexel L 61-64 40%    
  Jan 23, 2025 215   Delaware W 74-68 70%    
  Jan 25, 2025 296   Campbell W 70-59 83%    
  Jan 30, 2025 181   @ Elon L 65-67 44%    
  Feb 01, 2025 296   @ Campbell W 67-62 66%    
  Feb 06, 2025 170   Northeastern W 68-64 63%    
  Feb 08, 2025 306   Stony Brook W 73-62 85%    
  Feb 13, 2025 221   @ William & Mary W 75-74 52%    
  Feb 15, 2025 248   @ Hampton W 65-63 58%    
  Feb 20, 2025 261   Monmouth W 72-63 78%    
  Feb 22, 2025 215   @ Delaware L 70-71 50%    
  Feb 27, 2025 306   @ Stony Brook W 70-65 68%    
  Mar 01, 2025 324   N.C. A&T W 78-66 87%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 2.8 5.2 4.8 2.8 1.0 0.2 17.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.7 6.0 3.7 1.0 0.1 15.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 3.1 6.0 3.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 13.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 5.6 3.3 0.5 0.0 11.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 4.7 4.0 0.6 0.0 10.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.9 4.6 1.0 0.0 8.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.0 1.7 0.1 7.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.5 2.3 0.2 5.4 8th
9th 0.1 1.4 2.2 0.5 0.0 4.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 1.7 0.7 0.0 3.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.7 0.1 2.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.1 1.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.6 4.3 7.1 10.5 13.2 14.3 14.2 12.6 9.4 5.9 2.9 1.0 0.2 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.0    0.9 0.0
16-2 97.0% 2.8    2.5 0.3 0.0
15-3 82.3% 4.8    3.4 1.3 0.1
14-4 55.4% 5.2    2.4 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 22.2% 2.8    0.6 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0
12-6 4.0% 0.6    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 17.4% 17.4 10.1 4.9 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 44.7% 44.7% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.0% 37.0% 36.8% 0.2% 12.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 0.3%
16-2 2.9% 30.9% 30.9% 12.5 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 2.0
15-3 5.9% 27.2% 27.2% 12.9 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 4.3
14-4 9.4% 22.6% 22.6% 13.2 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.7 0.0 0.0 7.3
13-5 12.6% 19.1% 19.1% 13.5 0.2 1.0 1.1 0.2 10.2
12-6 14.2% 13.6% 13.6% 13.8 0.0 0.6 1.0 0.3 0.0 12.3
11-7 14.3% 9.7% 9.7% 14.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 12.9
10-8 13.2% 5.5% 5.5% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 12.5
9-9 10.5% 3.8% 3.8% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 10.1
8-10 7.1% 2.3% 2.3% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.9
7-11 4.3% 1.6% 1.6% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.2
6-12 2.6% 0.6% 0.6% 15.8 0.0 0.0 2.6
5-13 1.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.2
4-14 0.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.5
3-15 0.2% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 12.2% 12.2% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.6 4.6 4.3 1.4 0.1 87.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 10.9 5.9 2.9 5.9 2.9 47.1 35.3