Hofstra
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +2.1 #126
Expected Predictive Rating +1.8 #131
Pace 63.6 #315
Improvement -1.7 #259

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #109 C B C C D+
Defense #169 B C- D C B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #336 1.14 #202 -4.4 #327
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #113 0.68 #300 +0.4 #160
Three Pointers 45% #103 1.12 #44 +4.4 #47
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #166 +0.3 #164
Freethrows 0.29 #236 77% #51 0.22 #171
Second Chance 34.4% #78 1.10 #81 0.38 #57
Turnovers 16.6% #170
Total Offense +2.4 #109

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #318 1.06 #63 +4.8 #44
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #77 0.70 #80 -0.7 #239
Three Pointers 43% #118 0.98 #127 -0.3 #195
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #58 +3.8 #60
Freethrows 0.30 #198 73% #249 0.22 #209
Second Chance 31.7% #229 1.08 #266 0.34 #259
Turnovers 14.1% #326
Total Defense -0.2 #169

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.8% #297 -1.6% #55
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.3% #138 -6.1% #64
Possession Length 18.3 #278 17.4 #212
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #351 0.13 #44
Improvement +1.5 #98 -3.2 #331

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.1% 19.1% 13.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.8 13.2
.500 or above 98.5% 99.4% 94.0%
.500 or above in Conference 91.6% 94.8% 74.8%
Conference Champion 2.7% 3.1% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.7%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round18.1% 19.1% 13.0%
Second Round1.0% 1.1% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northeastern (Home) - 84.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 22 - 22 - 3
Quad 36 - 68 - 9
Quad 411 - 419 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 44 @Central Florida L 78 - 82 12% -1  0 - 1 +11 +8 B- C C+ +3 B+ D A+
 Fri, Nov 7 231 @Iona L 73 - 81 62% -14  0 - 2 -9 -3 C D+ F -6 C D B
 Fri, Nov 14 315 @Bucknell W 83 - 77 79% +2  1 - 2 -0 +3 C+ F+ C+ -4 C+ F B+
 Wed, Nov 19 143 @Temple L 76 - 81 43% -1  1 - 3 -1 +4 B- D- C+ -5 D- A+ B-
 Fri, Nov 28 214 La Salle W 63 - 58 69% +3  2 - 3 +2 -7 C- F D +9 A- D+ A-
 Sat, Nov 29 201 Merrimack W 78 - 58 68% +12  3 - 3 +17 +9 B- D D +9 B A+ D
 Sun, Nov 30 180 @Penn W 77 - 60 52% +4  4 - 3 +19 +8 B+ A F +11 A+ D- D+
 Wed, Dec 3 183 @Columbia L 70 - 72 53% -6  4 - 4 -1 +1 D A- D+ -2 C- A D
 Sun, Dec 7 93 @Pittsburgh W 80 - 73 26% +7  5 - 4 +16 +22 A+ C- A+ -5 F+ A+ C+
 Sat, Dec 13 68 @Syracuse W 70 - 69 19% +0  6 - 4 +12 +17 A+ B B -4 B F C
 Sun, Dec 21 186 Quinnipiac W 74 - 66 75% +2  7 - 4 +3 +3 F A+ D +1 A+ F+ F
 Mon, Dec 29 212 Campbell W 86 - 72 78% +12  8 - 4 1 - 0 +8 +13 C A+ F+ -4 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 3 206 @Drexel W 70 - 67 57% +8  9 - 4 2 - 0 +3 +13 B- A+ C+ -9 B- C- F
 Thu, Jan 8 155 @Towson W 78 - 67 47% +7  10 - 4 3 - 0 +14 +12 C- A+ A- +2 B+ D+ B
 Sat, Jan 10 207 Monmouth W 67 - 64 OT 78% -1  11 - 4 4 - 0 -3 -8 F D+ B- +5 A+ B+ C-
 Thu, Jan 15 217 @Stony Brook L 71 - 76 59% -6  11 - 5 4 - 1 -5 +11 C C A- -17 D- D- F
 Sat, Jan 17 192 Elon L 85 - 89 76% -3  11 - 6 4 - 2 -9 +11 A F+ C -21 F+ C+ F
 Thu, Jan 22 281 @N.C. A&T L 78 - 79 72% +5  11 - 7 4 - 3 -5 +8 D+ C A- -12 C+ F F
 Sat, Jan 24 150 @William & Mary L 82 - 89 44% -5  11 - 8 4 - 4 -3 +14 C A- A+ -18 C- F F
 Thu, Jan 29 152 College of Charleston L 64 - 66 68% +3  11 - 9 4 - 5 -5 -9 F C+ D+ +4 A+ F+ D-
 Sat, Jan 31 207 @Monmouth W 73 - 57 58% +10  12 - 9 5 - 5 +16 +8 B+ A+ F +9 A- A+ F
 Thu, Feb 5 256 Northeastern W 83 - 72 84%
 Sat, Feb 7 155 Towson W 69 - 64 69%
 Thu, Feb 12 152 @College of Charleston L 73 - 74 45%
 Sat, Feb 14 116 @UNC Wilmington L 69 - 73 36%
 Thu, Feb 19 251 Hampton W 73 - 63 84%
 Sat, Feb 21 256 @Northeastern W 80 - 75 66%
 Sat, Feb 28 217 Stony Brook W 73 - 65 78%
 Tue, Mar 3 206 Drexel W 69 - 61 77%
Totals 17 - 12 10 - 8 +2 +2 C B C +0 B C- D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 1.7 2.7 1st
2nd 0.2 4.2 8.9 2.3 15.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 4.3 15.5 6.8 0.2 26.8 3rd
4th 0.9 10.9 7.4 0.3 19.5 4th
5th 0.0 4.1 8.3 0.8 13.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 7.0 2.2 9.7 6th
7th 0.0 2.0 3.9 0.1 6.0 7th
8th 0.2 2.6 0.5 3.3 8th
9th 0.6 1.1 0.0 1.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 0.2 0.9 10th
11th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.1 0.1 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.1 0.2 1.7 6.4 16.5 26.0 28.0 16.9 4.3 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 41.1% 1.7    0.4 0.9 0.4 0.0
12-6 5.3% 0.9    0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.7% 2.7 0.4 1.3 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 4.3% 29.9% 29.9% 12.0 0.2 1.0 0.2 3.0
12-6 16.9% 26.8% 26.8% 12.5 0.0 2.3 2.1 0.1 12.4
11-7 28.0% 22.5% 22.5% 12.9 1.6 4.0 0.7 0.0 21.7
10-8 26.0% 13.8% 13.8% 13.0 0.6 2.3 0.7 0.0 22.4
9-9 16.5% 10.6% 10.6% 13.3 0.1 1.0 0.6 0.1 14.7
8-10 6.4% 8.7% 8.7% 13.9 0.2 0.3 0.1 5.9
7-11 1.7% 4.9% 4.9% 14.6 0.0 0.1 1.6
6-12 0.2% 6.5% 6.5% 15.0 0.0 0.1
5-13 0.1% 0.0 0.1
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 18.1% 18.1% 0.0% 12.8 81.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.3% 100.0% 12.0 12.2 74.8 13.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.0%