Hofstra
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +4.4 #109
Expected Predictive Rating +7.5 #79
Pace 64.3 #309
Improvement +2.4 #64

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #106 B- B+ C- C D+
Defense #120 B D+ C- C B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #289 1.22 #111 -1.3 #231
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #133 0.67 #277 -0.2 #189
Three Pointers 43% #149 1.14 #31 +3.8 #64
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #114 +2.3 #118
Freethrows 17.3 #188 75% #113 13.0 #164
Second Chance 33.9% #93 1.18 #44 0.40 #44
Turnovers 17.5% #237
Total Offense +2.9 #106

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #294 1.07 #78 +4.0 #62
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #90 0.66 #63 -0.2 #197
Three Pointers 42% #147 0.97 #144 +0.2 #176
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #59 +4.0 #65
Freethrows 17.3 #185 75% #272 12.9 #156
Second Chance 30.4% #161 1.16 #305 0.35 #257
Turnovers 15.6% #241
Total Defense +1.5 #120

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.1% #259 -1.3% #72
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.8% #89 -6.9% #67
Possession Length 18.5 #301 17.3 #188
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #344 0.14 #68
Improvement +3.7 #12 -1.3 #264

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29.7% 31.1% 24.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.3 12.3 12.5
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.4%
.500 or above in Conference 99.3% 99.7% 97.6%
Conference Champion 55.3% 59.7% 36.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round29.7% 31.0% 24.1%
Second Round3.7% 3.9% 2.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.5% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Monmouth (Home) - 81.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 22 - 23 - 3
Quad 37 - 410 - 7
Quad 412 - 123 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 50 @Central Florida L 78 - 82 19%  -1  0 - 1 +10 +7 B C- B+ +2 A- D- A+
 Fri, Nov 7 214 @Iona L 73 - 81 66%  -14  0 - 2 -8 -3 C D+ F -4 C D B+
 Fri, Nov 14 314 @Bucknell W 83 - 77 84%  +7  1 - 2 -0 +5 B F C -5 C- F A+
 Wed, Nov 19 143 @Temple L 76 - 81 52%  -1  1 - 3 -1 +3 C+ D- C- -4 D A+ B
 Fri, Nov 28 217 La Salle W 63 - 58 76%  +3  2 - 3 +2 -8 C- F F +10 A C- A-
 Sat, Nov 29 237 Merrimack W 78 - 58 79%  +12  3 - 3 +16 +8 B D- F +9 B A+ D+
 Sun, Nov 30 216 @Penn W 77 - 60 67%  +4  4 - 3 +17 +7 B+ A+ F +11 A+ D+ D
 Wed, Dec 3 139 @Columbia L 70 - 72 51%  -6  4 - 4 +2 +3 D+ A+ D -1 C A+ D-
 Sun, Dec 7 82 @Pittsburgh W 80 - 73 29%  +7  5 - 4 +17 +23 A+ C A+ -4 F A+ C
 Sat, Dec 13 69 @Syracuse W 70 - 69 25%  +0  6 - 4 +12 +18 A+ A+ B -5 C F C+
 Sun, Dec 21 158 Quinnipiac W 74 - 66 76%  +2  7 - 4 +5 +4 F A+ D +1 A+ F F
 Mon, Dec 29 199 Campbell W 86 - 72 82%  +12  8 - 4 1 - 0 +9 +14 B- A+ F -5 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 3 248 @Drexel W 70 - 67 73%  +8  9 - 4 2 - 0 +1 +10 C+ A+ C -8 C+ C- F
 Thu, Jan 8 175 @Towson W 78 - 67 60%  +7  10 - 4 3 - 0 +13 +11 D+ A+ A+ +2 B D A
 Sat, Jan 10 194 Monmouth W 75 - 65 81% 
 Thu, Jan 15 276 @Stony Brook W 71 - 63 78% 
 Sat, Jan 17 163 Elon W 79 - 71 77% 
 Thu, Jan 22 305 @N.C. A&T W 78 - 68 81% 
 Sat, Jan 24 127 @William & Mary L 77 - 78 48% 
 Thu, Jan 29 149 College of Charleston W 76 - 69 74% 
 Sat, Jan 31 194 @Monmouth W 72 - 68 63% 
 Thu, Feb 5 233 Northeastern W 80 - 69 86% 
 Sat, Feb 7 175 Towson W 70 - 61 79% 
 Thu, Feb 12 149 @College of Charleston W 73 - 72 53% 
 Sat, Feb 14 118 @UNC Wilmington L 68 - 70 44% 
 Thu, Feb 19 252 Hampton W 74 - 62 87% 
 Sat, Feb 21 233 @Northeastern W 77 - 72 69% 
 Sat, Feb 28 276 Stony Brook W 74 - 60 90% 
 Tue, Mar 3 248 Drexel W 73 - 61 87% 
Totals 21 - 8 14 - 4 +4 +3 B- B+ C- +1 B D+ C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 4.1 11.5 16.4 13.7 7.1 1.9 55.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 4.0 8.7 7.4 2.9 0.5 0.0 24.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.9 4.8 2.8 0.6 0.0 10.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 2.6 1.5 0.2 5.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.4 0.8 0.1 2.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.1 1.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 3.2 5.9 11.0 15.8 19.5 19.3 14.2 7.1 1.9 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.9    1.9
17-1 99.4% 7.1    6.9 0.1
16-2 96.7% 13.7    12.4 1.3 0.0
15-3 84.8% 16.4    12.1 4.1 0.2
14-4 59.0% 11.5    5.7 4.7 1.0 0.1
13-5 25.7% 4.1    1.0 1.8 1.1 0.2 0.0
12-6 6.1% 0.7    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 55.3% 55.3 40.1 12.1 2.5 0.5 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.9% 49.9% 49.3% 0.5% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.1 1.0 1.0%
17-1 7.1% 44.8% 44.8% 11.7 0.0 0.0 1.2 1.8 0.2 3.9
16-2 14.2% 38.3% 38.3% 12.0 0.7 4.0 0.7 0.0 8.8
15-3 19.3% 33.0% 33.0% 12.3 0.4 4.1 1.8 0.1 13.0
14-4 19.5% 30.6% 30.6% 12.5 0.1 3.1 2.5 0.2 13.5
13-5 15.8% 25.7% 25.7% 12.7 0.0 1.7 2.1 0.3 0.0 11.8
12-6 11.0% 21.4% 21.4% 12.9 0.6 1.4 0.3 0.0 8.6
11-7 5.9% 16.6% 16.6% 13.1 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 5.0
10-8 3.2% 9.3% 9.3% 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.9
9-9 1.3% 6.8% 6.8% 13.4 0.1 0.0 1.2
8-10 0.5% 4.1% 4.1% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.5
7-11 0.1% 11.1% 11.1% 15.0 0.0 0.1
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 29.7% 29.7% 0.0% 12.3 70.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 10.7 1.1 1.6 5.3 17.0 66.0 9.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 1.8% 12.0 1.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4% 1.3% 11.0 1.3