Louisiana
Sun Belt
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.7#285
Expected Predictive Rating-9.9#322
Pace68.7#190
Improvement+1.7#88

Offense
Total Offense-3.3#267
First Shot-1.8#225
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#274
Layup/Dunks-0.4#197
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#183
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#135
Freethrows-2.4#313
Improvement-2.4#331

Defense
Total Defense-3.4#284
First Shot-0.4#186
After Offensive Rebounds-3.0#351
Layups/Dunks-1.5#227
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#101
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#46
Freethrows-3.2#346
Improvement+4.1#3
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 1.0% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 0.7% 1.5% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 27.1% 41.1% 18.6%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.9% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 9.5% 3.6% 13.0%
First Four0.5% 0.6% 0.4%
First Round0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Coastal Carolina (Away) - 37.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 102 - 15
Quad 47 - 79 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 117   Kent St. L 66-70 26%     0 - 1 -4.1 -0.2 -4.1
  Nov 13, 2024 5   @ Houston L 45-91 1%     0 - 2 -23.3 -16.5 -5.7
  Nov 19, 2024 186   Rice L 61-83 41%     0 - 3 -26.3 -7.1 -21.1
  Nov 22, 2024 72   Liberty L 69-89 10%     0 - 4 -12.3 +6.8 -20.6
  Nov 23, 2024 135   George Washington L 74-83 22%     0 - 5 -7.7 -3.0 -4.1
  Nov 25, 2024 127   UAB L 86-98 20%     0 - 6 -9.9 +9.6 -19.4
  Nov 30, 2024 238   Nicholls St. L 75-76 52%     0 - 7 -8.3 +5.3 -13.6
  Dec 08, 2024 102   Louisiana Tech L 58-69 21%     0 - 8 -9.4 -9.5 -0.7
  Dec 11, 2024 225   SE Louisiana W 68-61 49%     1 - 8 +0.5 -3.5 +4.1
  Dec 14, 2024 195   Lamar L 45-74 42%     1 - 9 -33.7 -22.8 -14.8
  Dec 18, 2024 175   Appalachian St. W 68-62 39%     2 - 9 1 - 0 +2.2 -0.1 +2.7
  Dec 22, 2024 91   McNeese St. L 56-64 18%     2 - 10 -4.9 -8.4 +2.6
  Jan 02, 2025 278   @ Coastal Carolina L 67-70 38%    
  Jan 04, 2025 272   @ Georgia St. L 71-75 36%    
  Jan 09, 2025 308   Old Dominion W 76-72 66%    
  Jan 11, 2025 334   Louisiana Monroe W 74-67 74%    
  Jan 16, 2025 105   @ Arkansas St. L 67-81 9%    
  Jan 18, 2025 334   @ Louisiana Monroe W 71-70 53%    
  Jan 22, 2025 126   Texas St. L 68-74 30%    
  Jan 25, 2025 282   Southern Miss W 73-70 60%    
  Jan 30, 2025 126   @ Texas St. L 65-77 14%    
  Feb 01, 2025 156   South Alabama L 66-70 37%    
  Feb 05, 2025 242   @ Georgia Southern L 73-78 32%    
  Feb 12, 2025 120   Troy L 68-74 28%    
  Feb 15, 2025 199   Marshall L 74-76 43%    
  Feb 20, 2025 120   @ Troy L 65-77 13%    
  Feb 22, 2025 282   @ Southern Miss L 70-73 39%    
  Feb 26, 2025 105   Arkansas St. L 70-78 23%    
  Feb 28, 2025 156   @ South Alabama L 63-73 19%    
Projected Record 8 - 21 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.5 1.5 0.1 4.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.7 3.1 0.5 0.0 6.5 6th
7th 0.1 2.5 4.6 1.3 0.1 8.6 7th
8th 0.1 1.8 6.0 2.8 0.2 11.0 8th
9th 0.0 1.2 5.9 4.7 0.5 12.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 4.8 6.3 1.3 0.0 13.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 3.4 6.4 2.4 0.1 0.0 12.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 2.3 5.6 3.1 0.3 0.0 11.5 12th
13th 0.2 1.6 3.9 2.5 0.4 0.0 8.6 13th
14th 0.2 1.0 1.8 1.4 0.3 0.0 4.6 14th
Total 0.2 1.2 3.6 7.9 12.3 16.0 16.8 14.9 11.3 7.9 4.4 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 81.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-4 47.2% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 16.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 13.0% 13.0% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.3% 10.6% 10.6% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-5 0.9% 6.8% 6.8% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.9
12-6 2.1% 4.2% 4.2% 15.8 0.0 0.1 2.0
11-7 4.4% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1 4.3
10-8 7.9% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 7.8
9-9 11.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 11.2
8-10 14.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 14.9
7-11 16.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 16.8
6-12 16.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 15.9
5-13 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 12.3
4-14 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 7.9
3-15 3.6% 3.6
2-16 1.2% 1.2
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%