Louisiana
Sun Belt
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.9 #310
Expected Predictive Rating -11.6 #328
Pace 61.4 #351
Improvement +3.1 #40

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #342 F F D+ F F
Defense #220 D+ C C F F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% #356 0.97 #341 -8.1 #360
2 Pt. Jumpers 32% #16 0.80 #120 +5.0 #12
Three Pointers 39% #220 0.89 #306 -3.3 #294
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #339 -6.4 #341
Freethrows 13.4 #336 66% #328 8.9 #348
Second Chance 26.7% #288 0.84 #351 0.22 #345
Turnovers 18.3% #281
Total Offense -7.4 #342

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #19 1.18 #202 -4.9 #328
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #358 0.57 #8 +4.0 #2
Three Pointers 41% #198 1.08 #280 -1.3 #234
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #260 -2.3 #256
Freethrows 24.5 #359 75% #292 18.4 #6
Second Chance 30.7% #179 1.04 #194 0.32 #183
Turnovers 16.9% #164
Total Defense -1.5 #220

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -4.3% #356 3.1% #361
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -8.8% #309 1.5% #210
Possession Length 19.8 #358 17.3 #205
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.09 #355 0.17 #181
Improvement +2.6 #38 +0.5 #150

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 8.2% 18.6% 4.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 5.2% 1.8% 6.3%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Troy (Home) - 24.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 91 - 14
Quad 48 - 99 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 312 @Ball St. L 64 - 75 39%  -2  0 - 1 -17 -5 F F C- -13 F D C
 Fri, Nov 7 260 SE Louisiana W 58 - 52 49%  +9  1 - 1 -3 -5 A F C +3 A+ C- B-
 Tue, Nov 11 176 Tulane L 62 - 66 33%  -3  1 - 2 -8 -8 F D+ A+ -1 C+ F B
 Fri, Nov 14 87 @McNeese St. L 62 - 88 5%  -18  1 - 3 -16 -3 F C- D -14 F A+ A
 Tue, Nov 18 79 @Stanford L 66 - 93 5%  -12  1 - 4 -16 -2 C+ F C+ -13 F B+ C
 Fri, Nov 21 61 @Santa Clara L 43 - 80 4%  -20  1 - 5 -25 -23 F F F -4 A+ F F
 Mon, Nov 24 171 @UC Davis L 56 - 77 15%  -8  1 - 6 -19 -13 F F F -8 F C D
 Fri, Nov 28 342 Jackson St. L 45 - 51 71%  -5  1 - 7 -21 -29 F D+ F +8 A- C+ C
 Wed, Dec 3 231 @Lamar L 55 - 65 22%  +2  1 - 8 -11 -8 D D+ F -5 D- A D-
 Sat, Dec 6 118 UNC Wilmington L 63 - 70 20%  -3  1 - 9 -7 -4 C- D+ C- -4 D B B
 Sat, Dec 13 228 @Louisiana Tech L 44 - 65 22%  -11  1 - 10 -22 -18 F F F -7 D- F A+
 Thu, Dec 18 201 @Southern Miss L 54 - 62 19%  -2  1 - 11 0 - 1 -7 -16 F F B +8 A+ A F
 Sat, Dec 20 356 @Louisiana Monroe W 76 - 62 57%  +12  2 - 11 1 - 1 +3 +4 B- F A+ +0 B+ F A+
 Sun, Dec 28 272 Norfolk St. W 63 - 54 52%  +9  3 - 11 -0 -0 B F A +1 A C+ C-
 Wed, Dec 31 200 South Alabama L 58 - 63 37%  -2  3 - 12 1 - 2 -10 -2 D- D+ B+ -10 D F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 201 Southern Miss L 67 - 74 37%  -2  3 - 13 1 - 3 -12 -6 D- A+ F -7 F B+ A+
 Thu, Jan 8 356 Louisiana Monroe W 85 - 79 77%  +3  4 - 13 2 - 3 -11 +1 D+ A- F -12 F C C
 Sat, Jan 10 137 Troy L 62 - 69 25% 
 Wed, Jan 14 268 @Texas St. L 62 - 68 30% 
 Sat, Jan 17 200 @South Alabama L 57 - 67 19% 
 Thu, Jan 22 224 @Appalachian St. L 56 - 65 22% 
 Sat, Jan 24 250 @Old Dominion L 64 - 71 25% 
 Thu, Jan 29 304 Georgia St. W 67 - 65 58% 
 Sat, Jan 31 213 Georgia Southern L 70 - 73 40% 
 Wed, Feb 4 204 @James Madison L 62 - 71 19% 
 Sat, Feb 7 323 Central Michigan W 68 - 64 65% 
 Thu, Feb 12 270 Coastal Carolina W 66 - 65 52% 
 Thu, Feb 19 126 Arkansas St. L 68 - 76 23% 
 Sat, Feb 21 268 Texas St. W 65 - 64 51% 
 Tue, Feb 24 137 @Troy L 59 - 72 11% 
 Fri, Feb 27 126 @Arkansas St. L 65 - 79 10% 
Totals 9 - 22 6 - 12 -9 -7 F F D+ -2 D+ C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.6 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 0.8 0.0 2.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 1.9 0.4 0.0 3.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 3.3 1.6 0.0 5.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 4.3 4.0 0.4 0.0 9.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 3.6 6.5 1.4 0.0 12.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 3.5 8.5 3.9 0.2 16.3 11th
12th 0.5 4.0 10.1 6.4 0.7 0.0 21.8 12th
13th 1.2 6.0 10.6 6.8 1.3 0.0 26.0 13th
14th 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 1.6 14th
Total 1.7 7.2 15.3 20.9 20.4 16.2 10.1 5.2 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 18.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 8.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.1% 0.1
12-6 0.2% 2.7% 2.7% 15.0 0.0 0.2
11-7 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.7
10-8 2.1% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 2.1
9-9 5.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 5.1
8-10 10.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.1
7-11 16.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 16.2
6-12 20.4% 20.4
5-13 20.9% 20.9
4-14 15.3% 15.3
3-15 7.2% 7.2
2-16 1.7% 1.7
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.9 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%