Monmouth
Colonial Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.4#261
Expected Predictive Rating-9.8#319
Pace68.8#189
Improvement+4.2#15

Offense
Total Offense-2.3#237
First Shot-2.0#231
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#203
Layup/Dunks-4.7#333
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#122
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#152
Freethrows+1.0#116
Improvement+1.1#100

Defense
Total Defense-3.0#270
First Shot-1.8#238
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#284
Layups/Dunks-1.7#241
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#56
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#197
Freethrows-1.7#302
Improvement+3.1#14
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.4% 4.2% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 14.3 15.7
.500 or above 1.8% 15.5% 1.8%
.500 or above in Conference 32.9% 76.1% 32.9%
Conference Champion 1.3% 7.0% 1.3%
Last Place in Conference 12.2% 1.4% 12.2%
First Four0.9% 0.0% 0.9%
First Round1.1% 4.2% 1.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Auburn (Away) - 0.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 33 - 93 - 15
Quad 47 - 810 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 14   @ Michigan St. L 57-81 2%     0 - 1 -5.3 -7.6 +3.0
  Nov 08, 2024 124   Temple L 74-103 23%     0 - 2 -26.7 -0.8 -24.4
  Nov 12, 2024 349   @ Northern Illinois L 66-79 64%     0 - 3 -22.0 -10.9 -10.8
  Nov 15, 2024 63   @ Rutgers L 81-98 7%     0 - 4 -5.6 +13.3 -18.9
  Nov 18, 2024 101   @ Wichita St. L 66-70 12%     0 - 5 +3.7 -2.6 +6.3
  Nov 21, 2024 187   Youngstown St. L 62-72 35%     0 - 6 -11.4 -10.8 -0.1
  Nov 22, 2024 213   @ Stephen F. Austin L 67-72 29%     0 - 7 -4.6 +2.0 -6.8
  Nov 23, 2024 268   Presbyterian L 61-71 52%     0 - 8 -15.8 -8.9 -7.9
  Nov 30, 2024 115   @ Seton Hall W 63-51 15%     1 - 8 +17.9 +8.4 +11.5
  Dec 04, 2024 246   @ Lehigh L 63-90 36%     1 - 9 -28.8 -11.2 -17.9
  Dec 10, 2024 110   @ Princeton L 67-71 14%     1 - 10 +2.5 +0.3 +1.9
  Dec 21, 2024 297   Fairfield W 88-74 69%     2 - 10 +3.6 +8.1 -4.4
  Dec 30, 2024 1   @ Auburn L 62-94 0.1%   
  Jan 02, 2025 306   Stony Brook W 76-70 70%    
  Jan 04, 2025 215   @ Delaware L 74-80 30%    
  Jan 09, 2025 134   UNC Wilmington L 71-75 36%    
  Jan 11, 2025 117   College of Charleston L 74-79 31%    
  Jan 16, 2025 324   @ N.C. A&T W 79-78 53%    
  Jan 18, 2025 296   @ Campbell L 69-70 46%    
  Jan 23, 2025 181   @ Elon L 68-75 25%    
  Jan 25, 2025 221   @ William & Mary L 78-83 32%    
  Jan 30, 2025 154   Drexel L 67-69 41%    
  Feb 01, 2025 215   Delaware W 78-77 51%    
  Feb 06, 2025 248   Hampton W 71-69 59%    
  Feb 08, 2025 209   Towson W 66-65 50%    
  Feb 13, 2025 306   @ Stony Brook L 73-74 49%    
  Feb 15, 2025 209   @ Towson L 62-68 30%    
  Feb 20, 2025 149   @ Hofstra L 63-72 22%    
  Feb 22, 2025 170   Northeastern L 71-73 43%    
  Feb 27, 2025 181   Elon L 71-72 45%    
  Mar 01, 2025 154   @ Drexel L 64-72 22%    
Projected Record 9 - 22 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.3 1.5 0.5 0.0 3.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 2.5 0.9 0.1 4.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.1 1.6 0.2 5.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 3.0 2.9 0.5 0.0 6.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 2.1 4.6 1.2 0.0 8.0 7th
8th 0.0 1.2 5.0 2.7 0.1 0.0 9.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 4.5 4.4 0.6 0.0 10.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 3.3 5.7 1.4 0.0 10.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 2.7 5.4 2.7 0.2 11.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.8 3.4 0.4 0.0 10.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.8 2.8 0.6 0.0 9.4 13th
14th 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.3 1.6 0.4 0.0 6.5 14th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.7 4.4 7.6 11.2 13.4 14.6 13.4 11.7 8.6 6.1 3.5 1.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 90.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 84.4% 0.2    0.2 0.1 0.0
14-4 54.7% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 23.9% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 4.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.3% 1.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 16.7% 16.7% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.3% 14.9% 14.9% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 0.7% 7.5% 7.5% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
13-5 1.9% 9.3% 9.3% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.7
12-6 3.5% 6.7% 6.7% 15.7 0.1 0.2 3.3
11-7 6.1% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2 5.9
10-8 8.6% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.2 8.4
9-9 11.7% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 11.6
8-10 13.4% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 13.3
7-11 14.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 14.5
6-12 13.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 13.4
5-13 11.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.1
4-14 7.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.6
3-15 4.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.4
2-16 1.7% 1.7
1-17 0.6% 0.6
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 98.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%