Monmouth
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.2 #194
Expected Predictive Rating -3.5 #225
Pace 66.7 #245
Improvement +3.8 #28

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #227 D+ C C C D+
Defense #156 D+ B C+ B D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #147 1.07 #276 -1.1 #223
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #84 0.73 #209 +1.6 #91
Three Pointers 35% #303 1.00 #197 -3.3 #292
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #255 -2.7 #256
Freethrows 17.5 #180 74% #148 12.9 #165
Second Chance 29.3% #229 1.09 #128 0.32 #176
Turnovers 16.2% #148
Total Offense -2.2 #227

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #65 1.14 #149 -2.3 #256
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #290 0.76 #199 +1.3 #99
Three Pointers 40% #212 1.12 #309 -1.7 #254
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #267 -2.7 #267
Freethrows 15.5 #90 69% #60 10.8 #299
Second Chance 32.8% #262 0.84 #13 0.27 #75
Turnovers 17.6% #116
Total Defense +0.1 #156

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.1% #263 1.7% #315
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.2% #241 3.5% #247
Possession Length 18.1 #258 17.6 #235
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #161 0.19 #257
Improvement +0.0 #188 +3.9 #13

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.0% 5.6% 3.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.2 14.7
.500 or above 45.2% 66.2% 40.3%
.500 or above in Conference 56.6% 77.5% 51.8%
Conference Champion 1.4% 4.5% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 1.8% 0.8% 2.0%
First Four0.3% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round3.9% 5.5% 3.5%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Hofstra (Away) - 18.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 34 - 65 - 10
Quad 411 - 615 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 217 @La Salle L 60 - 73 42%  -3  0 - 1 -13 -9 D- C F -5 D+ B C-
 Thu, Nov 13 53 @Seton Hall L 58 - 70 9%  -2  0 - 2 +1 -2 F A+ F +2 B A+ F
 Tue, Nov 18 69 @Syracuse L 73 - 78 11%  -5  0 - 3 +6 +6 B D B+ +0 C C+ B
 Sun, Nov 23 206 Robert Morris W 71 - 70 OT 63%  -1  1 - 3 -5 -4 F B+ C -0 B- C+ D+
 Fri, Nov 28 312 Ball St. W 80 - 73 75%  +4  2 - 3 -2 +8 C B- A+ -9 F B+ D
 Sat, Nov 29 291 Le Moyne L 79 - 83 69%  -1  2 - 4 -11 +3 F A+ A- -14 F C C+
 Sun, Nov 30 318 @Lafayette W 88 - 74 66%  +13  3 - 4 +8 +11 A+ F D -4 D B C
 Wed, Dec 3 242 Princeton W 63 - 58 70%  +3  4 - 4 -3 -9 F F B- +7 D A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 114 @Georgia Tech L 67 - 79 20%  -2  4 - 5 -5 -1 D- C A+ -4 D+ B- A
 Sun, Dec 14 282 @Fairfield L 65 - 73 56%  -0  4 - 6 -12 -5 D D- D -8 F D C
 Wed, Dec 17 158 Quinnipiac L 75 - 85 54%  -15  4 - 7 -13 +0 C F D+ -13 F C D
 Sun, Dec 21 320 Lehigh W 76 - 62 84%  +7  5 - 7 +1 +2 A+ F F +0 F B+ A+
 Wed, Dec 31 199 Campbell L 65 - 68 62%  +2  5 - 8 0 - 1 -8 -6 F D+ A+ -2 A F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 175 @Towson W 62 - 48 35%  +7  6 - 8 1 - 1 +16 -2 C C F +19 A+ A+ C+
 Thu, Jan 8 127 William & Mary W 81 - 70 46%  +3  7 - 8 2 - 1 +10 +6 B A A+ +3 B+ D- A+
 Sat, Jan 10 109 @Hofstra L 65 - 75 19% 
 Thu, Jan 15 248 Drexel W 69 - 63 70% 
 Sat, Jan 17 233 Northeastern W 77 - 72 67% 
 Thu, Jan 22 252 @Hampton L 67 - 68 49% 
 Sat, Jan 24 199 @Campbell L 74 - 77 40% 
 Thu, Jan 29 305 N.C. A&T W 78 - 69 80% 
 Sat, Jan 31 109 Hofstra L 68 - 72 37% 
 Thu, Feb 5 276 @Stony Brook W 67 - 66 55% 
 Thu, Feb 12 248 @Drexel L 66 - 67 49% 
 Sat, Feb 14 175 Towson W 66 - 64 58% 
 Thu, Feb 19 118 @UNC Wilmington L 65 - 73 23% 
 Sat, Feb 21 149 @College of Charleston L 69 - 75 30% 
 Thu, Feb 26 276 Stony Brook W 70 - 63 75% 
 Sat, Feb 28 163 Elon W 75 - 74 55% 
 Tue, Mar 3 233 @Northeastern L 74 - 75 45% 
Totals 15 - 15 9 - 8 -2 -2 D+ C C +0 D+ B C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.5 0.5 0.0 3.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.6 2.8 0.9 0.1 6.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.6 5.1 1.7 0.1 10.8 4th
5th 0.2 3.3 7.2 2.8 0.2 0.0 13.6 5th
6th 0.1 2.2 7.6 4.5 0.5 0.0 14.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 6.0 5.5 0.8 0.0 13.0 7th
8th 0.3 3.9 6.0 1.4 0.1 11.6 8th
9th 0.1 1.8 5.3 2.1 0.1 9.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.7 2.7 0.2 7.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.2 0.3 4.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 13th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.9 8.3 13.0 16.6 18.3 16.5 11.4 6.5 2.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 90.5% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-4 44.8% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 18.8% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.9% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.4% 1.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.2% 11.9% 11.9% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 0.9% 13.7% 13.7% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8
13-5 2.9% 14.3% 14.3% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.5
12-6 6.5% 10.9% 10.9% 14.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 5.7
11-7 11.4% 7.8% 7.8% 14.4 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.0 10.5
10-8 16.5% 4.8% 4.8% 14.7 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 15.7
9-9 18.3% 2.4% 2.4% 15.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 17.8
8-10 16.6% 1.9% 1.9% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 16.3
7-11 13.0% 1.2% 1.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 12.9
6-12 8.3% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 8.2
5-13 3.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.9
4-14 1.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.2
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 14.5 96.0 0.0%