Saint Louis
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +16.5 23
Results Rating +16.7 26
Pace 77.9 14
Improvement -1.7 252

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B+ 37 A+ B- C C A
Defense A- 21 A A- C- C- B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% 18 B 64% 63 +7.1 10
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% 364 B- 42% 63 -5.5 364
Three Pointers 48% 43 A+ 42% 1 +9.3 4
Shot Selection/Accuracy A +2.4 2 A +7.9 9
1st FG Attempt A+ 1.24 1
Second Chance B- 32.9% 100 C+ 1.06 129 B- 0.35 95
Turnovers C 16.6% 162
Freethrows C 0.30 196 C 73% 170 C 0.22 184
Total Offense B+ +8.1 37

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 48% 178 B- 9.5% 102
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 23% 194 F+ 9.2% 349
Three Pointers B 89% 59 C+ 0.8% 153
Total B 63% 45 C+ 5.3% 148

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 279 A 47% 12 -5.6 28
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 92 B- 36% 106 +0.5 233
Three Pointers 42% 150 A- 29% 18 -2.7 66
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.5 81 A -7.1 7
1st FG Attempt A 0.87 10
Second Chance B+ 25.5% 29 A 0.85 11 A- 0.22 12
Turnovers C- 16.0% 230
Freethrows C- 0.32 229 C- 73% 253 C- 0.23 235
Total Defense A- +8.4 21

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 44% 84 C 10.6% 185
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 27% 219 C- 3.9% 238
Three Pointers B- 81% 92 B- 1.4% 72
Total B- 52% 108 C- 5.2% 200

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 14.5 4 18.0 286
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.30 6 0.16 144
Improvement -1.1 #240 -0.7 #229

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 31 24 18
Results Rating Rank 37 27 13
Conference Record 15 - 3 17 - 1 17 - 1
Conference Finish 1 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed 11 8 5
NCAA Tourney Finish 1st Round 2nd Round Elite 8

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 2% 3% 0%
Top 6 Seed 22% 29% 3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 97% 98% 94%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 92% 93% 87%
Average Seed 7.8 7.4 8.9
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 100% 100% 99%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four3% 1% 6%
First Round96% 97% 92%
Second Round60% 63% 53%
Sweet Sixteen19% 20% 13%
Elite Eight7% 8% 5%
Final Four2% 3% 2%
Championship Game1% 1% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Dayton (Away) - 73.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b2 - 03 - 0
Quad 26 - 28 - 2
Quad 310 - 118 - 3
Quad 411 - 030 - 3


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 222 Southeast Missouri St. W 92 - 67 97% +10  75% 1 - 0 A +19 B+ +8 B+ C+ D A +8 A A+ F
 Thu, Nov 6 347 Chicago St. W 108 - 86 99% +13  90% 2 - 0 B- +6 B- +5 A F B- C- -3 C- B- B-
 Mon, Nov 10 272 Lindenwood W 109 - 66 98% +22  98% 3 - 0 A+ +34 A+ +17 A+ A+ F A+ +11 C C+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 62 Grand Canyon W 78 - 64 84% +11  93% 4 - 0 A +20 B- +4 A+ C- F A+ +15 A+ A+ C-
 Fri, Nov 21 261 Purdue Fort Wayne W 91 - 60 98% +19  97% 5 - 0 A +22 A- +11 A+ C D- A+ +12 A+ C C+
 Thu, Nov 27 42 Santa Clara W 71 - 70 64% -3  11% 6 - 0 B+ +14 C- -1 B- D A+ A+ +14 A+ A B-
 Fri, Nov 28 77 Stanford L 77 - 78 80% +6  77% 6 - 1 B- +7 C+ +4 F+ A A- B- +3 A- A- D+
 Tue, Dec 2 148 @Loyola Marymount W 91 - 70 88% +12  94% 7 - 1 A+ +25 A- +11 A A+ F A+ +12 A B C
 Sun, Dec 7 270 Central Michigan W 107 - 65 98% +23  96% 8 - 1 A+ +33 A+ +28 A+ A+ A+ B+ +5 C+ A- C+
 Sat, Dec 13 127 San Francisco W 85 - 75 93% +1  50% 9 - 1 B +9 B+ +7 A D+ C+ B- +2 B A- D-
 Wed, Dec 17 240 Bethune-Cookman W 112 - 53 98% +31  94% 10 - 1 A+ +52 A+ +24 A+ A+ D+ A+ +22 A+ A- C
 Sun, Dec 21 346 New Hampshire W 93 - 79 99% +3  65% 11 - 1 C- -2 B +7 B- C- A- F -10 F A F
 Wed, Dec 31 133 Saint Joseph's W 102 - 79 94% +12  86% 12 - 1 1 - 0 A +22 A+ +37 A+ C- A F -13 B- F F
 Wed, Jan 7 46 @Virginia Commonwealth W 71 - 62 58% +6  97% 13 - 1 2 - 0 A+ +23 D -5 C- F B- A+ +28 A+ A+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 200 @La Salle W 84 - 72 92% +12  99% 14 - 1 3 - 0 B+ +13 A+ +15 A+ D+ F+ C -1 B B F
 Wed, Jan 14 155 Fordham W 78 - 56 95% +12  89% 15 - 1 4 - 0 A +19 A+ +16 A+ A- A+ B+ +6 A- A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 130 Richmond W 88 - 63 94% +19  97% 16 - 1 5 - 0 A+ +24 A +11 A D A- A+ +13 A+ D+ C
 Tue, Jan 20 110 @Duquesne W 81 - 77 83% +5  80% 17 - 1 6 - 0 B +10 C+ +2 B B+ D- A +8 A+ F+ C+
 Fri, Jan 23 142 @St. Bonaventure W 97 - 62 88% +25  98% 18 - 1 7 - 0 A+ +39 A+ +20 A+ B- B+ A+ +18 A+ A+ D+
 Tue, Jan 27 82 George Washington W 79 - 76 87% -5  11% 19 - 1 8 - 0 B- +7 D+ -3 C+ C C- A +10 A- A+ C+
 Fri, Jan 30 87 Dayton W 102 - 71 88% +18  99% 20 - 1 9 - 0 A+ +35 A+ +26 A+ A+ A- A- +8 C+ A A-
 Tue, Feb 3 113 @Davidson W 91 - 82 83% -1  39% 21 - 1 10 - 0 A- +15 A+ +19 A- A+ A- D+ -4 A F F
 Sat, Feb 7 200 La Salle W 82 - 58 97% +7  82% 22 - 1 11 - 0 A +19 B +6 A+ F B- A+ +13 A A+ B-
 Fri, Feb 13 282 @Loyola Chicago W 86 - 59 96% +12  96% 23 - 1 12 - 0 A+ +23 B +6 A+ C F A+ +16 B+ A+ F+
 Tue, Feb 17 124 @Rhode Island L 76 - 81 84% -4  5% 23 - 2 12 - 1 C +1 C +1 C+ D D- C -0 D A+ C-
 Fri, Feb 20 46 Virginia Commonwealth W 88 - 75 78% -4  24% 24 - 2 13 - 1 A +21 B +7 A+ B- F+ A+ +13 A+ C- A
 Tue, Feb 24 87 @Dayton W 81 - 74 74%
 Sat, Feb 28 110 Duquesne W 90 - 74 93%
 Wed, Mar 4 282 Loyola Chicago W 90 - 64 99%
 Sat, Mar 7 105 @George Mason W 80 - 71 80%
Totals 27 - 3 16 - 2 +16 B+ +8 A+ A A A- +8 A+ C C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B+ B B- A+ A 46% 12% 48% A A+ B- C+ B- C C C C A- A B- A- A 35% 23% 42% B- A B+ A A- C- C- C- C-
1.20 64% 42% 42% +8 +2 1.24 33% 1.1 .35 17% .30 73% .22 0.97 47% 36% 29% -7 -1 0.87 25% 0.9 .22 16% .32 73% .22
Nov
3		 Southeast Missouri St. B+ A+ F+ D B 49% 5% 46% A B+ A F C+ D D- A- D+ A B- B A B 25% 42% 32% A+ A A+ A+ A+ F D- D+ D-
1.19 71% 33% 31% +4 +3 1.16 39% 0.9 .33 19% .34 81% .27 0.87 53% 32% 26% -7 -4 0.80 15% 0.7 .11 12% .38 69% .26
Nov
6		 Chicago St. B- A F A+ A 45% 4% 51% A- A F F F B- A+ A+ A+ C- A+ F C C- 32% 38% 30% B- C- C B B- B- F D- F
1.26 76% 0% 43% +14 +3 1.35 25% 0.6 .14 18% .47 91% .42 1.00 37% 48% 33% -3 -3 0.90 28% 0.8 .23 18% .50 80% .40
Nov
10		 Lindenwood A+ A+ F A+ A+ 58% 2% 40% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ C A+ A+ C- B- A- C- 42% 27% 31% B C B- C C+ A+ F A+ D-
1.35 76% 0% 50% +19 +4 1.48 48% 1.7 .83 25% .51 71% .36 0.81 60% 31% 27% -5 -1 0.92 28% 1.1 .31 30% .46 54% .25
Nov
15		 Grand Canyon B- B- F A+ A 46% 6% 48% A+ A+ B- F+ C- F C- A+ B- A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 36% 20% 44% B- A+ B A+ A+ C- D+ F F+
1.04 58% 0% 40% +2 +2 1.12 29% 0.9 .26 24% .30 82% .25 0.86 50% 9% 25% -15 0 0.73 30% 0.5 .14 16% .35 86% .30
Nov
21		 Purdue Fort Wayne A- A A+ A+ A+ 35% 6% 59% B- A+ A+ F C D- B A+ A+ A+ A F+ A+ A+ 28% 17% 56% B A+ B- D- C C+ C+ F C-
1.29 72% 67% 43% +15 +2 1.35 48% 0.7 .35 23% .31 94% .29 0.85 47% 44% 20% -14 0 0.74 19% 1.1 .21 16% .24 79% .19
Nov
27		 Santa Clara C- C A+ D C+ 45% 6% 49% A- B- C- F D A+ C- F D A+ A A+ A+ A+ 53% 8% 39% F A+ A B+ A B- F F F
1.00 59% 67% 29% -1 +2 1.04 29% 0.8 .23 16% .32 63% .20 0.99 48% 25% 25% -12 +3 0.84 31% 1.0 .31 17% .37 82% .31
Nov
28		 Stanford C+ F F F F 53% 10% 37% A+ F+ A- A- A A- A+ A+ A+ B- A+ A+ F A 47% 7% 45% D+ A- B+ A- A- D+ D- C+ D
1.06 44% 20% 26% -13 +2 0.80 34% 1.2 .42 15% .46 93% .42 1.08 31% 0% 48% -6 +2 0.95 30% 0.8 .26 14% .38 71% .27
Dec
2		 Loyola Marymount A- A A+ C- A- 52% 4% 45% A+ A A+ B A+ F D A- C- A+ B D- A+ A+ 40% 20% 40% D- A B C+ B C C D+ C
1.18 66% 50% 32% +3 +3 1.14 49% 1.1 .54 23% .25 80% .20 0.91 55% 45% 23% -7 0 0.89 23% 1.0 .23 18% .27 71% .19
Dec
7		 Central Michigan A+ A- B+ A 55% 0% 45% A+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+ C- B- C B+ A+ F D- C 30% 30% 40% B C+ B A A- C+ F C F
1.55 69% 38% +9 +4 1.28 43% 1.5 .63 6% .34 73% .25 0.94 36% 50% 37% -1 -2 0.96 25% 0.9 .22 19% .41 70% .28
Dec
13		 San Francisco B+ A D D+ A- 52% 12% 37% A+ A A F D+ C+ A+ C- A+ B- B- F A+ B- 17% 19% 64% A B A C A- D- C- C C-
1.21 70% 33% 32% +5 +2 1.15 36% 0.7 .25 13% .41 72% .29 1.06 56% 70% 26% -2 -1 0.96 24% 1.1 .27 13% .34 71% .24
Dec
17		 Bethune-Cookman A+ B+ A A+ A+ 48% 3% 48% A A+ C+ A+ A+ D+ B- F+ C A+ A A+ A+ A+ 40% 29% 31% B A+ A B A- C D C- D
1.45 64% 50% 57% +20 +3 1.48 34% 1.7 .59 17% .36 65% .23 0.68 45% 19% 12% -21 -1 0.58 21% 0.9 .19 18% .36 70% .25
Dec
21		 New Hampshire B C- F A+ B- 40% 11% 49% B B- B F+ C- A- A+ C- A+ F B- F F F 31% 20% 49% A- F A+ D A F C- A- C+
1.25 57% 17% 42% +3 +1 1.11 34% 0.9 .29 11% .47 74% .35 1.07 50% 50% 41% +5 -1 1.12 11% 1.0 .11 12% .28 61% .17
Dec
31		 Saint Joseph's A+ A+ F A+ A+ 39% 7% 54% A+ A+ D+ C C- A D+ F+ D F B A+ D- C+ 37% 21% 42% B+ B- D F F F F C F
1.56 76% 25% 62% +29 +2 1.63 28% 1.0 .28 11% .19 64% .12 1.21 53% 18% 36% -5 0 0.92 36% 1.4 .49 9% .40 75% .30
Jan
7		 Virginia Commonwealth D D+ C+ F D 59% 8% 32% A+ C- F D- F B- D D+ D- A+ A+ A+ A A+ 50% 11% 39% D A+ A+ A+ A+ C C+ F D+
0.92 51% 40% 26% -7 +3 0.93 15% 0.8 .13 16% .25 69% .17 0.81 39% 0% 27% -17 +2 0.71 20% 0.3 .07 16% .37 83% .31
Jan
10		 La Salle A+ A A+ A+ A+ 56% 4% 40% A+ A+ B- F D+ F+ A+ B+ A+ C F D A+ B- 36% 36% 29% A B C+ A- B F F B+ F
1.24 68% 50% 50% +16 +3 1.40 32% 0.9 .28 21% .41 73% .30 1.07 69% 44% 8% -6 -2 0.87 33% 0.8 .26 10% .64 67% .43
Jan
14		 Fordham A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ 33% 8% 59% A A+ C+ A+ A- A+ C- B C B+ A A- A- A 35% 18% 47% C A- D+ A+ A+ F C F+ D+
1.28 75% 50% 38% +10 +1 1.24 28% 1.4 .38 10% .25 71% .18 0.92 47% 33% 26% -10 0 0.82 36% 0.4 .16 13% .25 77% .19
Jan
17		 Richmond A A+ A+ C- A 33% 15% 52% A- A B F D A- A A A+ A+ B A A+ A+ 17% 48% 35% A+ A+ B+ F D+ C D+ D D
1.27 78% 50% 32% +7 0 1.17 35% 0.8 .29 13% .38 78% .30 0.91 56% 27% 26% -10 -5 0.72 21% 1.4 .30 14% .35 81% .29
Jan
20		 Duquesne C+ F+ B A+ C+ 55% 14% 31% A+ B C- A+ B+ D- A- F B- A A- A A+ A+ 39% 14% 46% B- A+ F C- F+ C+ F D+ F
1.05 48% 43% 47% +1 +2 1.08 26% 1.4 .38 21% .41 64% .26 1.00 50% 25% 23% -13 +1 0.79 37% 1.1 .39 18% .49 74% .37
Jan
23		 St. Bonaventure A+ B- F A+ A+ 46% 2% 52% A+ A+ C A- B- B+ F F F A+ B B- A+ A+ 32% 34% 34% A A+ A A+ A+ D+ F A+ F
1.38 62% 0% 59% +20 +3 1.48 29% 1.2 .35 14% .15 44% .07 0.88 53% 39% 22% -7 -2 0.83 28% 0.5 .14 16% .40 67% .27
Jan
27		 George Washington D+ D C- B- C- 46% 6% 48% A+ C+ C+ C- C C- A F D+ A C F+ A+ A 43% 7% 50% C A- A A+ A+ C+ D+ A C
1.04 54% 33% 36% -1 +2 1.06 30% 1.0 .30 18% .36 50% .18 1.00 61% 50% 26% -4 +2 0.98 29% 0.8 .22 18% .34 67% .23
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
30		 Dayton A+ C- A+ A+ A+ 43% 4% 53% A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ A- A F+ B A- A F C C+ 47% 18% 35% C+ C+ A+ C A A- A+ F A
1.40 55% 100% 59% +21 +3 1.49 26% 2.2 .57 18% .38 65% .25 0.98 50% 56% 33% -1 +1 1.02 20% 1.2 .23 21% .28 88% .24
Feb
3		 Davidson A+ C+ D- A B+ 44% 12% 44% A A- A- A+ A+ A- A+ A A+ D+ C+ A+ B A 34% 19% 47% C A A- F F F D- F F
1.31 61% 33% 39% +4 +2 1.13 38% 1.5 .56 14% .44 73% .32 1.18 56% 30% 32% -4 0 0.94 26% 1.7 .44 10% .34 76% .26
Feb
7		 La Salle B A F A+ A+ 32% 10% 58% B- A+ F B+ F B- A+ B A+ A+ A- B A+ A+ 51% 22% 27% D- A C+ A+ A+ B- C+ C- C+
1.16 69% 20% 45% +11 +1 1.26 14% 1.3 .18 16% .35 71% .25 0.82 46% 33% 20% -13 +1 0.78 33% 0.3 .11 20% .32 72% .23
Feb
13		 Loyola Chicago B D+ A+ A+ A+ 45% 5% 50% A+ A+ C+ D+ C F F D+ F A+ A F B+ B 21% 15% 64% A B+ A+ A+ A+ F+ C+ A+ A-
1.18 52% 67% 50% +11 +2 1.29 31% 1.0 .31 19% .14 75% .10 0.81 45% 50% 29% -5 -1 0.91 15% 0.3 .05 15% .29 50% .15
Feb
17		 Rhode Island C F+ A+ A- C- 54% 4% 42% A+ C+ D+ D D D- A+ A- A+ C A+ F F D- 36% 12% 52% C- D A A+ A+ C- F F F
1.02 46% 50% 40% -2 +3 1.04 27% 0.9 .24 24% .46 77% .35 1.09 33% 67% 46% +4 +1 1.12 24% 0.4 .11 19% .45 85% .38
Feb
20		 Virginia Commonwealth B A- A+ A A+ 58% 7% 35% A+ A+ B+ C- B- F+ C+ F D- A+ A+ A+ A A+ 43% 4% 53% F+ A+ D B- C- A F C- F
1.13 64% 50% 40% +7 +3 1.23 35% 0.9 .32 21% .31 53% .16 0.97 30% 0% 29% -18 +3 0.72 38% 1.1 .40 21% .52 75% .39



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 7.9 36.5 55.1 99.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.2 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.5 7.9 36.5 55.1 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 55.1    55.1
16-2 100.0% 36.5    36.5
15-3 100.0% 7.9    4.6 3.3
14-4 63.2% 0.3    0.1 0.3
13-5 0.0%
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 99.8% 99.8 96.2 3.6



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 55.1% 98.5% 63.2% 35.3% 7.0 0.0 0.3 1.7 5.7 12.6 14.1 10.3 6.9 2.4 0.2 0.8 95.9%
16-2 36.5% 95.5% 59.2% 36.3% 8.6 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.6 9.3 10.5 7.1 1.6 1.7 88.9%
15-3 7.9% 90.8% 54.9% 36.0% 9.4 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.1 2.5 1.1 0.0 0.7 79.7%
14-4 0.5% 81.6% 42.9% 38.7% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 67.7%
13-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 96.7% 61.0% 35.7% 7.8 3.3 91.5%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 34.8% 100.0% 6.4 0.1 0.8 4.7 15.7 32.6 28.7 12.6 4.3 0.5 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 9.5% 96.6% 8.0 0.0 0.1 1.2 7.9 22.6 29.3 25.0 9.4 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 5.2% 95.3% 8.2 0.1 0.8 5.9 18.3 30.7 26.9 11.6 0.9