Saint Louis
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +16.2 #24
Expected Predictive Rating +19.1 #15
Pace 76.3 #26
Improvement +0.2 #177

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #36 A+ C+ C+ C A+
Defense #18 A- A- C- C- B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #18 1.29 #57 +7.5 #9
2 Pt. Jumpers 6% #365 0.84 #64 -5.4 #364
Three Pointers 48% #42 1.25 #3 +9.3 #5
1st FG Attempt 1.25 #1 +11.4 #1
Freethrows 0.30 #204 73% #170 0.22 #189
Second Chance 34.0% #85 1.02 #185 0.35 #102
Turnovers 15.8% #125
Total Offense +8.1 #36

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #290 0.98 #16 +5.3 #33
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #61 0.72 #119 -1.1 #274
Three Pointers 41% #196 0.85 #14 +3.7 #47
1st FG Attempt 0.86 #7 +7.9 #7
Freethrows 0.32 #240 73% #241 0.23 #253
Second Chance 25.2% #23 0.87 #21 0.22 #9
Turnovers 15.8% #236
Total Defense +8.2 #18

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 4.8% #2 -1.5% #61
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 16.7% #7 -14.1% #5
Possession Length 14.7 #8 18.0 #295
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.29 #6 0.16 #130
Improvement -0.2 #195 +0.4 #170

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.4% 1.6% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 13.1% 15.5% 1.1%
Top 6 Seed 37.6% 42.4% 14.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 94.2% 95.2% 89.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 85.9% 88.0% 76.9%
Average Seed 7.0 6.8 8.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 97.0% 98.3% 91.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.9% 2.1% 6.5%
First Round93.1% 94.4% 87.1%
Second Round62.6% 65.2% 49.9%
Sweet Sixteen23.8% 25.7% 14.3%
Elite Eight8.8% 9.7% 4.6%
Final Four2.9% 3.3% 1.3%
Championship Game1.0% 1.1% 0.4%
National Champion0.3% 0.4% 0.2%

Next Game: Davidson (Away) - 83.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b2 - 02 - 0
Quad 26 - 29 - 2
Quad 39 - 018 - 3
Quad 412 - 030 - 3


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 238 Southeast Missouri St. W 92 - 67 98% +10  1 - 0 +18 +9 B C C- +7 A A+ F
 Thu, Nov 6 355 Chicago St. W 108 - 86 99% +13  2 - 0 +5 +7 A F C+ -6 C C+ C+
 Mon, Nov 10 240 Lindenwood W 109 - 66 98% +22  3 - 0 +36 +20 A+ A+ F +10 C B- A+
 Sat, Nov 15 65 Grand Canyon W 78 - 64 84% +11  4 - 0 +20 +6 A+ C F +13 A+ A+ C-
 Fri, Nov 21 216 Purdue Fort Wayne W 91 - 60 97% +19  5 - 0 +25 +15 A+ C- D +10 A+ C+ C+
 Thu, Nov 27 46 Santa Clara W 71 - 70 67% -3  6 - 0 +13 +2 B- D A+ +10 A+ A C+
 Fri, Nov 28 86 Stanford L 77 - 78 82% +6  6 - 1 +5 +5 F+ A A +1 B+ A- D+
 Tue, Dec 2 170 @Loyola Marymount W 91 - 70 90% +12  7 - 1 +23 +14 A+ A+ F +8 A- B C
 Sun, Dec 7 294 Central Michigan W 107 - 65 99% +23  8 - 1 +31 +31 A+ A+ A+ +1 C B+ B-
 Sat, Dec 13 97 San Francisco W 85 - 75 90% +1  9 - 1 +12 +12 A C- C+ +0 B+ A D-
 Wed, Dec 17 236 Bethune-Cookman W 112 - 53 97% +31  10 - 1 +52 +26 A+ A+ C- +20 A+ B+ C
 Sun, Dec 21 320 New Hampshire W 93 - 79 99% +3  11 - 1 +1 +11 B C- A -10 F A+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 132 Saint Joseph's W 102 - 79 94% +12  12 - 1 1 - 0 +22 +39 A+ C- A -15 B- F F
 Wed, Jan 7 50 @Virginia Commonwealth W 71 - 62 61% +6  13 - 1 2 - 0 +22 -4 D+ F B- +25 A+ A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 214 @La Salle W 84 - 72 93% +12  14 - 1 3 - 0 +12 +15 A+ D+ D- -3 B B+ F
 Wed, Jan 14 169 Fordham W 78 - 56 96% +12  15 - 1 4 - 0 +18 +17 A+ B+ A +4 A- A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 17 136 Richmond W 88 - 63 94% +19  16 - 1 5 - 0 +24 +14 A D+ A- +10 A+ D+ C-
 Tue, Jan 20 113 @Duquesne W 81 - 77 83% +5  17 - 1 6 - 0 +10 +4 B B+ F+ +6 A+ D- C
 Fri, Jan 23 141 @St. Bonaventure W 97 - 62 87% +25  18 - 1 7 - 0 +39 +24 A+ C+ A- +15 A+ A+ C-
 Tue, Jan 27 79 George Washington W 79 - 76 87% -5  19 - 1 8 - 0 +7 -0 C+ C C- +7 A- A+ C+
 Fri, Jan 30 88 Dayton W 102 - 71 88% +18  20 - 1 9 - 0 +34 +29 A+ A+ A+ +4 C+ B+ A-
 Tue, Feb 3 117 @Davidson W 78 - 68 83%
 Sat, Feb 7 214 La Salle W 85 - 63 98%
 Fri, Feb 13 279 @Loyola Chicago W 87 - 67 97%
 Tue, Feb 17 119 @Rhode Island W 79 - 69 83%
 Fri, Feb 20 50 Virginia Commonwealth W 86 - 77 79%
 Tue, Feb 24 88 @Dayton W 79 - 72 75%
 Sat, Feb 28 113 Duquesne W 89 - 73 93%
 Wed, Mar 4 279 Loyola Chicago W 90 - 64 99%
 Sat, Mar 7 84 @George Mason W 78 - 71 72%
Totals 28 - 2 17 - 1 +16 +8 A+ C+ C+ +8 A- A- C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.0 7.8 22.8 37.4 28.1 97.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.2 0.3 2.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.1 0.3 2.1 9.0 23.1 37.4 28.1 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 28.1    28.1
17-1 100.0% 37.4    37.2 0.2
16-2 98.7% 22.8    20.5 2.2 0.0
15-3 86.1% 7.8    4.9 2.6 0.2
14-4 46.5% 1.0    0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0
13-5 11.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 97.0% 97.0 91.1 5.4 0.5 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 28.1% 98.9% 65.4% 33.5% 4.9 0.3 1.0 3.2 7.3 6.5 4.8 2.8 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.3 96.9%
17-1 37.4% 96.1% 60.5% 35.6% 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.6 7.7 9.1 6.9 4.8 2.3 0.2 1.5 90.1%
16-2 23.1% 91.0% 55.0% 36.0% 8.5 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.1 4.8 5.9 4.3 1.1 0.0 2.1 80.0%
15-3 9.0% 84.9% 49.7% 35.2% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.2 2.7 1.2 1.4 69.9%
14-4 2.1% 79.7% 47.7% 32.0% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.4 61.1%
13-5 0.3% 64.5% 37.1% 27.4% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 43.6%
12-6 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 94.2% 59.3% 35.0% 7.0 5.8 85.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 18.4% 100.0% 4.2 1.7 5.6 16.8 36.0 25.6 11.7 2.6 0.1 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.1% 97.2% 6.1 0.2 2.4 8.0 21.5 28.8 20.1 11.3 4.0 0.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.4% 96.4% 6.3 0.6 8.8 18.2 25.7 25.1 12.2 5.1 0.7