Saint Louis
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +14.4 #29
Expected Predictive Rating +16.6 #24
Pace 77.9 #21
Improvement +0.2 #172

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #44 A+ C+ B- C A+
Defense #25 A A C C- B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #25 1.31 #49 +7.8 #9
2 Pt. Jumpers 6% #365 0.72 #225 -5.6 #364
Three Pointers 48% #49 1.19 #13 +7.9 #11
1st FG Attempt 1.22 #4 +10.0 #4
Freethrows 16.2 #244 75% #94 12.2 #201
Second Chance 34.6% #76 0.98 #256 0.34 #138
Turnovers 15.6% #118
Total Offense +7.2 #44

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #275 0.94 #9 +5.7 #25
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #100 0.71 #122 -0.4 #217
Three Pointers 42% #166 0.93 #84 +1.3 #133
1st FG Attempt 0.88 #26 +6.6 #26
Freethrows 18.6 #247 72% #160 13.4 #130
Second Chance 23.8% #13 0.95 #69 0.23 #15
Turnovers 16.1% #211
Total Defense +7.2 #25

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 4.9% #1 -1.1% #89
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 14.1% #18 -11.9% #25
Possession Length 14.5 #7 17.8 #274
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.29 #9 0.18 #196
Improvement -0.3 #206 +0.5 #155

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.8% 0.9% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 5.8% 6.4% 0.5%
Top 6 Seed 16.3% 17.5% 4.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 76.7% 77.8% 65.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 56.7% 58.3% 41.5%
Average Seed 8.4 8.3 9.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.8%
Conference Champion 77.6% 79.6% 56.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four9.3% 9.1% 11.1%
First Round72.8% 73.9% 61.0%
Second Round41.5% 42.8% 28.2%
Sweet Sixteen13.2% 13.8% 7.8%
Elite Eight4.9% 5.1% 2.3%
Final Four1.6% 1.7% 0.9%
Championship Game0.5% 0.5% 0.3%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: La Salle (Away) - 91.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b2 - 12 - 1
Quad 26 - 28 - 3
Quad 39 - 117 - 4
Quad 412 - 029 - 4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 218 Southeast Missouri St. W 92 - 67 96%  +10  1 - 0 +19 +8 B+ C- D+ +8 A+ A+ F
 Thu, Nov 6 353 Chicago St. W 108 - 86 99%  +13  2 - 0 +6 +8 A+ F C+ -6 C D C
 Mon, Nov 10 240 Lindenwood W 109 - 66 97%  +22  3 - 0 +36 +19 A+ A+ F +10 C C A+
 Sat, Nov 15 83 Grand Canyon W 78 - 64 83%  +11  4 - 0 +18 +5 A+ C F +13 A+ A+ D+
 Fri, Nov 21 243 Purdue Fort Wayne W 91 - 60 97%  +19  5 - 0 +23 +14 A+ D D- +9 A+ C+ C+
 Thu, Nov 27 61 Santa Clara W 71 - 70 70%  -3  6 - 0 +10 +0 B- F A+ +10 A+ A+ C+
 Fri, Nov 28 79 Stanford L 77 - 78 74%  +6  6 - 1 +7 +6 F A+ A+ +1 A- A+ D+
 Tue, Dec 2 122 @Loyola Marymount W 91 - 70 80%  +12  7 - 1 +26 +15 A+ A+ F +10 A+ B+ B
 Sun, Dec 7 323 Central Michigan W 107 - 65 99%  +23  8 - 1 +29 +29 A+ A+ A+ +0 C- B+ B-
 Sat, Dec 13 100 San Francisco W 85 - 75 87%  +1  9 - 1 +12 +13 A+ C- C+ -1 B- A+ D
 Wed, Dec 17 278 Bethune-Cookman W 112 - 53 98%  +31  10 - 1 +49 +23 A+ A+ C- +21 A+ B B-
 Sun, Dec 21 344 New Hampshire W 93 - 79 99%  +3  11 - 1 -1 +10 B+ D+ A+ -12 F A+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 185 Saint Joseph's W 102 - 79 95%  +12  12 - 1 1 - 0 +18 +36 A+ D A+ -16 C F F
 Wed, Jan 7 49 @Virginia Commonwealth W 71 - 62 52%  +6  13 - 1 2 - 0 +23 -2 C- F B+ +24 A+ A+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 217 @La Salle W 82 - 68 91% 
 Wed, Jan 14 203 Fordham W 83 - 63 97% 
 Sat, Jan 17 115 Richmond W 88 - 74 90% 
 Tue, Jan 20 129 @Duquesne W 89 - 80 82% 
 Fri, Jan 23 119 @St. Bonaventure W 83 - 74 79% 
 Tue, Jan 27 70 George Washington W 89 - 80 81% 
 Fri, Jan 30 75 Dayton W 81 - 71 81% 
 Tue, Feb 3 125 @Davidson W 79 - 70 81% 
 Sat, Feb 7 217 La Salle W 85 - 65 97% 
 Fri, Feb 13 251 @Loyola Chicago W 85 - 69 94% 
 Tue, Feb 17 141 @Rhode Island W 80 - 70 83% 
 Fri, Feb 20 49 Virginia Commonwealth W 85 - 78 73% 
 Tue, Feb 24 75 @Dayton W 78 - 74 63% 
 Sat, Feb 28 129 Duquesne W 92 - 77 93% 
 Wed, Mar 4 251 Loyola Chicago W 88 - 66 98% 
 Sat, Mar 7 92 @George Mason W 78 - 73 69% 
Totals 27 - 3 16 - 2 +14 +7 A+ C+ B- +7 A A C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 5.8 16.7 23.6 21.2 9.4 77.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.1 6.1 3.7 0.7 0.0 14.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 2.5 1.1 0.1 5.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.1 1.9 4th
5th 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 3.0 6.8 13.1 20.5 24.3 21.2 9.4 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 9.4    9.4
17-1 100.0% 21.2    20.9 0.3
16-2 97.3% 23.6    20.6 3.0 0.0
15-3 81.7% 16.7    10.1 5.8 0.8 0.0
14-4 44.5% 5.8    1.8 2.7 1.2 0.2
13-5 11.4% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 77.6% 77.6 63.0 12.0 2.2 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 9.4% 97.8% 60.3% 37.6% 4.8 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.4 1.8 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 94.5%
17-1 21.2% 93.6% 55.9% 37.6% 7.1 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.5 3.7 4.2 3.5 2.7 1.6 0.4 1.4 85.4%
16-2 24.3% 83.7% 48.7% 35.1% 8.9 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.0 3.8 5.3 5.5 2.5 0.0 3.9 68.3%
15-3 20.5% 71.6% 41.6% 30.0% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.9 5.6 4.6 0.0 5.8 51.3%
14-4 13.1% 61.5% 38.8% 22.7% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.5 4.5 0.1 5.0 37.1%
13-5 6.8% 46.1% 31.5% 14.6% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.3 0.1 3.7 21.3%
12-6 3.0% 36.7% 27.0% 9.6% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.0 1.9 13.2%
11-7 1.1% 26.0% 21.1% 4.8% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.8 6.1%
10-8 0.4% 17.9% 16.7% 1.2% 11.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 1.4%
9-9 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
8-10 0.0% 0.0
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 76.7% 46.2% 30.5% 8.4 23.3 56.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.7% 100.0% 3.8 3.2 10.4 22.7 36.1 20.2 6.2 1.1 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.5% 95.8% 6.1 0.3 2.9 10.1 20.8 24.4 19.9 10.7 5.2 1.0 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.4% 95.0% 6.3 0.4 0.4 3.2 8.5 16.7 21.7 23.5 10.7 6.8 2.8 0.4