St. Bonaventure
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.2 #141
Expected Predictive Rating +1.6 #139
Pace 66.6 #236
Improvement -3.7 #328

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #107 C+ C+ C C- C-
Defense #217 C- C C+ C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #113 1.14 #196 +1.2 #131
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #99 0.90 #35 +3.1 #44
Three Pointers 34% #316 1.10 #70 -2.0 #252
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #110 +2.4 #109
Freethrows 0.27 #282 75% #88 0.20 #237
Second Chance 34.9% #68 0.99 #229 0.35 #106
Turnovers 16.8% #184
Total Offense +2.5 #107

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #142 1.18 #215 -1.4 #225
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #170 0.79 #250 -0.4 #220
Three Pointers 39% #239 1.08 #279 -0.4 #205
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #259 -2.2 #259
Freethrows 0.28 #104 77% #353 0.21 #165
Second Chance 29.6% #138 1.07 #250 0.32 #184
Turnovers 17.9% #105
Total Defense -1.2 #217

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.6% #229 0.2% #183
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.3% #85 4.2% #264
Possession Length 17.1 #155 17.5 #242
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #61 0.18 #232
Improvement +0.0 #177 -3.7 #343

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.8% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.0 12.9
.500 or above 69.5% 87.4% 64.1%
.500 or above in Conference 3.7% 11.3% 1.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 5.9% 1.2% 7.4%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.5% 0.8% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Dayton (Away) - 23.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 22 - 32 - 7
Quad 36 - 68 - 13
Quad 48 - 217 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 121 Bradley W 69 - 63 45% +4  1 - 0 +9 +1 D C C +8 C- A+ C
 Sat, Nov 8 345 Canisius W 89 - 70 92% +10  2 - 0 +4 +19 C- A+ B -13 F B- D+
 Wed, Nov 12 174 Siena W 75 - 66 70% +3  3 - 0 +5 +6 C A+ D -0 A+ F A
 Sat, Nov 15 225 Youngstown St. W 84 - 80 77% +1  4 - 0 -3 +8 A+ B- D- -11 C- F C-
 Thu, Nov 20 220 Robert Morris W 75 - 61 76% +7  5 - 0 +8 -1 C C- F+ +9 A+ B B+
 Tue, Nov 25 29 North Carolina L 70 - 85 10% -8  5 - 1 +0 +1 C B- B -1 C- C- A
 Thu, Nov 27 247 East Carolina W 67 - 58 72% +3  6 - 1 +4 -7 F D+ D+ +11 A+ A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 30 109 @Florida Atlantic W 70 - 65 30% +4  7 - 1 +12 +6 A+ F+ C- +6 A+ D+ B-
 Sat, Dec 6 204 @Buffalo W 77 - 69 53% +7  8 - 1 +8 +4 C+ B+ F +4 D+ D- A+
 Wed, Dec 10 222 Colgate W 85 - 77 77% -3  9 - 1 +2 +8 C+ B- D+ -6 B+ F F
 Sat, Dec 13 199 Ohio L 83 - 88 OT 64% -2  9 - 2 -8 +1 D+ C C- -8 F+ F D-
 Sat, Dec 20 296 Le Moyne W 92 - 81 87% +2  10 - 2 +0 +17 A- B+ B+ -16 C- F D-
 Wed, Dec 31 50 @Virginia Commonwealth L 82 - 89 13% -0  10 - 3 0 - 1 +6 +16 B+ B+ B -10 C- C- F+
 Wed, Jan 7 136 Richmond L 80 - 89 60% -7  10 - 4 0 - 2 -10 +6 D A+ A+ -16 D+ F C-
 Sat, Jan 10 169 Fordham L 77 - 81 69% -2  10 - 5 0 - 3 -8 +8 A- A+ D -16 F A+ F+
 Wed, Jan 14 132 @Saint Joseph's L 64 - 68 36% -4  10 - 6 0 - 4 +1 +0 F+ C C +0 C- A+ B
 Sat, Jan 17 214 @La Salle L 74 - 78 55% -2  10 - 7 0 - 5 -4 +10 A+ F C -14 F F A+
 Tue, Jan 20 279 Loyola Chicago W 84 - 70 85% -3  11 - 7 1 - 5 +4 +7 D+ D+ A+ -2 F A+ A-
 Fri, Jan 23 24 Saint Louis L 62 - 97 13% -25  11 - 8 1 - 6 -22 -4 C- D C -17 F C D+
 Wed, Jan 28 113 @Duquesne W 87 - 79 31% -2  12 - 8 2 - 6 +14 +17 A+ D+ A+ -3 D A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 31 84 George Mason L 73 - 77 40% +8  12 - 9 2 - 7 -0 +1 A+ D+ F+ -1 D C A+
 Tue, Feb 3 88 @Dayton L 69 - 77 23%
 Sat, Feb 7 169 @Fordham L 69 - 70 46%
 Sat, Feb 14 113 Duquesne W 78 - 77 54%
 Wed, Feb 18 132 Saint Joseph's W 73 - 71 59%
 Sat, Feb 21 136 @Richmond L 74 - 77 38%
 Wed, Feb 25 119 Rhode Island W 72 - 71 55%
 Sat, Feb 28 84 @George Mason L 68 - 76 21%
 Wed, Mar 4 79 @George Washington L 75 - 84 21%
 Sat, Mar 7 117 Davidson W 71 - 70 54%
Totals 16 - 14 6 - 12 +1 +2 C+ C+ C -1 C- C C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.8 5th
6th 0.5 1.3 0.1 1.9 6th
7th 0.1 2.1 0.9 0.0 3.1 7th
8th 0.0 1.5 3.7 0.3 5.5 8th
9th 0.9 6.6 2.3 0.0 9.8 9th
10th 0.7 6.8 7.4 0.4 15.2 10th
11th 0.4 5.7 10.9 2.1 19.1 11th
12th 0.4 4.6 11.5 4.9 0.1 21.6 12th
13th 0.7 4.9 9.6 5.6 0.6 21.4 13th
14th 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.4 14th
Total 1.1 6.1 14.9 23.6 24.0 17.6 9.0 3.0 0.7 0.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0% 0.0
10-8 0.7% 5.2% 5.2% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.6
9-9 3.0% 2.2% 2.2% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9
8-10 9.0% 1.4% 1.4% 12.2 0.1 0.0 8.9
7-11 17.6% 0.6% 0.6% 12.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 17.5
6-12 24.0% 0.3% 0.3% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 24.0
5-13 23.6% 0.2% 0.2% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 23.6
4-14 14.9% 0.1% 0.1% 14.5 0.0 0.0 14.9
3-15 6.1% 0.2% 0.2% 15.0 0.0 6.1
2-16 1.1% 1.1
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 12.6 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%