St. Bonaventure
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.3#95
Expected Predictive Rating+7.3#78
Pace61.6#343
Improvement-2.4#292

Offense
Total Offense+3.0#91
First Shot+1.3#134
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#87
Layup/Dunks+4.4#35
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#185
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#278
Freethrows+0.1#170
Improvement+2.2#70

Defense
Total Defense+2.3#110
First Shot+3.5#76
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#289
Layups/Dunks+3.6#59
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#191
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#287
Freethrows+2.4#39
Improvement-4.6#352
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.7% 7.1% 4.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.7 11.7 11.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 79.0% 89.7% 67.3%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round5.7% 7.0% 4.3%
Second Round1.0% 1.2% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Chicago (Away) - 52.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 25 - 45 - 6
Quad 38 - 313 - 9
Quad 49 - 122 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 127   Cal St. Northridge W 70-56 71%     1 - 0 +13.6 -8.0 +20.4
  Nov 09, 2024 352   @ Canisius W 87-78 92%     2 - 0 -1.5 +17.0 -17.5
  Nov 13, 2024 164   @ Florida Gulf Coast W 74-65 60%     3 - 0 +11.6 +3.4 +8.4
  Nov 16, 2024 355   Le Moyne W 71-52 97%     4 - 0 +3.1 -4.8 +9.6
  Nov 24, 2024 144   Bryant W 85-70 74%     5 - 0 +13.7 +10.7 +2.9
  Nov 28, 2024 49   Utah St. L 67-72 32%     5 - 1 +5.2 -0.8 +5.9
  Nov 29, 2024 108   Northern Iowa W 68-56 55%     6 - 1 +16.0 +4.3 +13.1
  Dec 04, 2024 251   @ Bucknell W 64-47 78%     7 - 1 +14.2 -2.9 +18.5
  Dec 07, 2024 342   Buffalo W 65-55 96%     8 - 1 -4.3 -7.9 +4.6
  Dec 14, 2024 66   Providence W 74-70 39%     9 - 1 +12.1 +14.4 -1.8
  Dec 17, 2024 246   @ Siena W 65-48 78%     10 - 1 +14.4 -5.2 +20.5
  Dec 21, 2024 316   Niagara W 71-52 93%     11 - 1 +7.4 -1.6 +10.8
  Dec 31, 2024 38   Virginia Commonwealth W 77-75 34%     12 - 1 1 - 0 +11.4 +20.0 -8.3
  Jan 04, 2025 191   @ Fordham W 86-66 66%     13 - 1 2 - 0 +21.1 +18.4 +3.8
  Jan 08, 2025 105   @ Saint Louis L 68-73 44%     13 - 2 2 - 1 +1.8 +3.0 -1.5
  Jan 11, 2025 193   La Salle L 82-83 OT 81%     13 - 3 2 - 2 -5.0 +8.5 -13.5
  Jan 15, 2025 220   Richmond W 63-49 85%     14 - 3 3 - 2 +8.3 +3.9 +7.8
  Jan 18, 2025 142   @ Duquesne L 57-75 56%     14 - 4 3 - 3 -14.3 -5.1 -11.5
  Jan 21, 2025 81   George Mason L 62-75 52%     14 - 5 3 - 4 -8.2 +0.2 -9.3
  Jan 24, 2025 38   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 61-75 19%     14 - 6 3 - 5 +0.4 -0.2 +0.0
  Jan 28, 2025 80   Dayton W 75-53 52%     15 - 6 4 - 5 +26.8 +20.2 +11.9
  Feb 01, 2025 191   Fordham W 74-72 81%     16 - 6 5 - 5 -1.9 +8.3 -10.0
  Feb 04, 2025 128   @ Loyola Chicago W 68-67 52%    
  Feb 09, 2025 124   George Washington W 72-66 73%    
  Feb 12, 2025 121   @ Rhode Island W 72-71 51%    
  Feb 15, 2025 152   @ Massachusetts W 72-70 56%    
  Feb 22, 2025 142   Duquesne W 68-61 75%    
  Feb 26, 2025 86   @ Saint Joseph's L 67-71 34%    
  Mar 05, 2025 152   Massachusetts W 75-68 77%    
  Mar 08, 2025 126   @ Davidson W 70-69 51%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.2 1.3 0.8 2.3 2nd
3rd 0.5 5.2 5.2 0.7 11.6 3rd
4th 0.1 4.3 9.2 2.0 0.0 15.6 4th
5th 1.3 10.7 4.7 0.2 16.9 5th
6th 0.1 6.7 8.2 0.7 0.0 15.6 6th
7th 1.0 9.3 1.7 0.0 12.0 7th
8th 0.0 3.5 4.9 0.1 8.5 8th
9th 0.5 5.8 0.8 7.1 9th
10th 0.0 1.5 2.8 0.1 4.4 10th
11th 0.2 2.2 0.6 3.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 1.2 0.0 1.8 12th
13th 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 14th
15th 15th
Total 0.1 1.5 5.7 13.8 23.2 25.4 20.0 8.7 1.7 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 7.2% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 1.7% 15.6% 14.4% 1.2% 10.9 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.4 1.4%
12-6 8.7% 13.3% 12.9% 0.5% 11.5 0.6 0.6 0.0 7.5 0.5%
11-7 20.0% 9.2% 9.2% 11.7 0.0 0.6 1.2 0.0 18.2
10-8 25.4% 5.4% 5.3% 0.0% 11.8 0.3 1.0 0.1 0.0 24.0 0.0%
9-9 23.2% 2.8% 2.8% 12.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 22.5
8-10 13.8% 2.6% 2.6% 12.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 13.5
7-11 5.7% 1.1% 1.1% 12.5 0.0 0.0 5.6
6-12 1.5% 3.4% 3.4% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.7% 5.7% 0.1% 11.7 0.1 1.8 3.6 0.2 0.0 94.3 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 10.9 16.7 75.0 8.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%