St. Bonaventure
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +2.7 #119
Expected Predictive Rating +5.8 #89
Pace 66.0 #269
Improvement -2.3 #297

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #105 C+ B+ C+ C- C-
Defense #174 C D C- C C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #91 1.14 #207 +1.6 #122
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #74 0.84 #70 +3.3 #44
Three Pointers 32% #338 1.11 #59 -3.0 #283
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #124 +1.9 #124
Freethrows 14.7 #308 78% #42 11.5 #249
Second Chance 36.7% #34 1.08 #137 0.40 #51
Turnovers 15.8% #131
Total Offense +3.0 #105

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #191 1.14 #144 +0.5 #158
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #98 0.84 #303 -2.1 #323
Three Pointers 39% #253 0.95 #111 +2.6 #94
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #145 +1.0 #145
Freethrows 16.4 #142 78% #350 12.7 #162
Second Chance 30.0% #146 1.27 #353 0.38 #304
Turnovers 15.8% #224
Total Defense -0.3 #174

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.9% #247 -0.7% #110
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.7% #113 -1.3% #154
Possession Length 17.6 #198 18.0 #295
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #87 0.17 #182
Improvement +0.9 #127 -3.2 #344

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.3% 1.4% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.8 11.8 12.1
.500 or above 92.2% 95.0% 82.2%
.500 or above in Conference 45.9% 51.8% 25.3%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 3.7% 1.9% 9.7%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round1.2% 1.4% 0.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fordham (Home) - 77.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 23 - 33 - 7
Quad 36 - 59 - 12
Quad 410 - 119 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 116 Bradley W 69 - 63 47%  +4  1 - 0 +10 +3 D+ C B- +7 D A+ C-
 Sat, Nov 8 331 Canisius W 89 - 70 93%  +7  2 - 0 +5 +20 C A+ C -13 F A- D+
 Wed, Nov 12 190 Siena W 75 - 66 77%  -1  3 - 0 +4 +7 D+ A+ D -2 A+ F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 210 Youngstown St. W 84 - 80 79%  -5  4 - 0 -2 +10 A+ C+ F -11 C- F C
 Thu, Nov 20 206 Robert Morris W 75 - 61 78%  +4  5 - 0 +8 -0 C D+ F +9 A+ B+ A
 Tue, Nov 25 26 North Carolina L 70 - 85 13%  -11  5 - 1 +0 +3 B C+ B- -3 D+ D- A+
 Thu, Nov 27 266 East Carolina W 67 - 58 80%  +2  6 - 1 +3 -7 F D- D- +10 A+ A+ A
 Sun, Nov 30 106 @Florida Atlantic W 70 - 65 32%  +2  7 - 1 +12 +6 A+ F C- +7 A+ D+ B
 Sat, Dec 6 179 @Buffalo W 77 - 69 55%  +7  8 - 1 +10 +5 B- A F +5 D D A+
 Wed, Dec 10 205 Colgate W 85 - 77 78%  -3  9 - 1 +3 +9 C+ B D- -6 A F F
 Sat, Dec 13 170 Ohio L 83 - 88 OT 64%  -3  9 - 2 -6 +2 D A+ D- -8 F F D+
 Sat, Dec 20 291 Le Moyne W 92 - 81 88%  +1  10 - 2 +1 +15 A- B+ A- -14 C F F
 Wed, Dec 31 49 @Virginia Commonwealth L 82 - 89 15%  -0  10 - 3 0 - 1 +7 +18 A A A- -12 D+ D+ F
 Wed, Jan 7 115 Richmond L 80 - 89 58%  -7  10 - 4 0 - 2 -8 +6 D A+ A+ -14 C F D
 Sat, Jan 10 203 Fordham W 73 - 65 78% 
 Wed, Jan 14 185 @Saint Joseph's W 73 - 72 56% 
 Sat, Jan 17 217 @La Salle W 73 - 70 60% 
 Tue, Jan 20 251 Loyola Chicago W 79 - 68 84% 
 Fri, Jan 23 29 Saint Louis L 74 - 83 21% 
 Wed, Jan 28 129 @Duquesne L 78 - 80 42% 
 Sat, Jan 31 92 George Mason L 71 - 72 49% 
 Tue, Feb 3 75 @Dayton L 68 - 76 23% 
 Sat, Feb 7 203 @Fordham W 70 - 68 58% 
 Sat, Feb 14 129 Duquesne W 81 - 77 64% 
 Wed, Feb 18 185 Saint Joseph's W 76 - 69 75% 
 Sat, Feb 21 115 @Richmond L 74 - 78 35% 
 Wed, Feb 25 141 Rhode Island W 74 - 69 66% 
 Sat, Feb 28 92 @George Mason L 68 - 74 28% 
 Wed, Mar 4 70 @George Washington L 75 - 84 22% 
 Sat, Mar 7 125 Davidson W 72 - 68 63% 
Totals 18 - 12 8 - 10 +3 +3 C+ B+ C+ +0 C D C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 1.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 1.7 1.0 0.1 3.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 3.1 2.0 0.3 0.0 6.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 4.1 3.7 0.7 0.0 9.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 4.8 5.7 1.3 0.1 12.6 6th
7th 0.5 4.6 7.3 2.1 0.1 0.0 14.5 7th
8th 0.2 3.6 7.1 3.1 0.2 0.0 14.2 8th
9th 0.1 1.7 6.5 3.7 0.4 12.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 4.4 3.8 0.4 0.0 9.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 2.5 3.3 0.8 0.0 6.9 11th
12th 0.1 1.3 2.7 0.7 0.0 4.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 0.7 0.0 2.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.6 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.3 6.8 10.4 15.1 16.6 16.5 13.0 8.7 4.7 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 60.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
14-4 20.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 2.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.2% 16.7% 13.3% 3.3% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.8%
14-4 0.7% 10.3% 9.0% 1.4% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7 1.5%
13-5 2.1% 5.5% 5.5% 11.3 0.1 0.0 2.0
12-6 4.7% 4.6% 4.6% 11.4 0.1 0.1 4.5
11-7 8.7% 2.8% 2.8% 11.9 0.1 0.2 0.0 8.5
10-8 13.0% 1.8% 1.8% 11.9 0.1 0.2 0.0 12.7
9-9 16.5% 1.0% 1.0% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 16.4
8-10 16.6% 0.5% 0.5% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 16.5
7-11 15.1% 0.4% 0.4% 12.8 0.0 0.1 15.1
6-12 10.4% 0.1% 0.1% 12.7 0.0 0.0 10.4
5-13 6.8% 0.3% 0.3% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.7
4-14 3.3% 0.2% 0.2% 15.0 0.0 3.3
3-15 1.5% 1.5
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 1.3% 1.2% 0.0% 11.8 98.8 0.0%