Toledo
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.2 161
Results Rating -1.7 189
Pace 70.2 133
Improvement -0.3 199

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 104 B- C- B- C- D+
Defense D+ 260 D D+ B- B+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 105 C 57% 193 +1.2 130
2 Pt. Jumpers 57% 25 A 47% 14 +5.0 14
Three Pointers 31% 346 B+ 38% 34 -3.0 285
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.6 274 B +3.9 64
1st FG Attempt B- 1.09 84
Second Chance C- 28.7% 228 C- 0.99 238 C- 0.28 242
Turnovers B- 15.6% 101
Freethrows D+ 0.28 250 B- 75% 79 C- 0.21 202
Total Offense C+ +2.7 104

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 44% 253 D+ 12.8% 288
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 36% 41 B+ 2.2% 21
Three Pointers B- 88% 93 B- 0.5% 89
Total C- 53% 235 C- 6.0% 229

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 109 D+ 61% 261 +2.9 282
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 316 C 38% 198 -1.6 61
Three Pointers 42% 127 D 37% 297 +2.5 296
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.8 312 D +2.9 294
1st FG Attempt D 1.10 302
Second Chance D- 34.6% 328 C+ 1.00 139 D+ 0.35 272
Turnovers B- 18.2% 95
Freethrows B+ 0.25 27 C 72% 175 B+ 0.18 32
Total Defense D+ -2.9 260

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 50% 216 D+ 8.2% 286
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 22% 127 D- 1.5% 344
Three Pointers C+ 83% 143 D- -0.1% 356
Total C- 57% 216 D 3.6% 328

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.6 97 17.5 226
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 52 0.21 318
Improvement -0.1 #189 -0.3 #207

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 194 162 135
Results Rating Rank 222 184 148
Conference Record 9 - 9 10 - 8 12 - 6
Conference Finish 6 4 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 15
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5% 6% 4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.4 15.2
.500 or above 46% 50% 12%
.500 or above in Conference 98% 100% 84%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 1%
First Round5% 6% 3%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Northern Illinois (Home) - 89.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 31 - 6
Quad 33 - 84 - 14
Quad 411 - 215 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 182 South Alabama L 74 - 76 66% -9  0% 0 - 1 D+ -6 B- +4 A+ D- C F -10 F F A-
 Sat, Nov 8 176 Marshall L 73 - 85 65% +1  64% 0 - 2 F+ -16 D- -8 C- F+ D- D- -8 F A A-
 Tue, Nov 11 153 @Wright St. W 81 - 71 37% +4  62% 1 - 2 B+ +13 A- +10 B+ A+ F B +4 F D+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 255 Detroit Mercy W 90 - 83 77% +4  92% 2 - 2 C -1 C+ +2 A- D+ F D+ -4 D+ C C
 Wed, Nov 19 198 Youngstown St. W 92 - 75 68% +8  86% 3 - 2 B+ +12 B+ +8 A- C- C+ B- +2 D D- A+
 Mon, Nov 24 152 Troy W 75 - 68 48% +2  54% 4 - 2 B- +7 C +1 C C+ C+ B+ +7 B+ A- C+
 Wed, Nov 26 67 Belmont L 72 - 87 21% -3  18% 4 - 3 D+ -7 D+ -3 C+ D+ C+ C- -3 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 172 @Oakland L 97 - 98 40% +1  57% 4 - 4 C +1 B+ +9 B B+ C D- -8 D- D- F
 Sat, Dec 13 179 @Robert Morris L 70 - 75 42% +6  67% 4 - 5 C- -3 D -4 F D A+ C+ +1 C A+ F
 Tue, Dec 16 10 @Michigan St. L 69 - 92 3% -20  0% 4 - 6 C -1 B- +5 C C- A+ D -5 D- D+ A-
 Tue, Dec 30 288 Western Michigan W 84 - 79 83% -3  34% 5 - 6 1 - 0 D+ -6 C- -1 F+ B+ C- D+ -5 C C- A-
 Sat, Jan 3 270 @Central Michigan W 78 - 75 61% -5  23% 6 - 6 2 - 0 C -0 C +1 D- F A+ C -1 D B F
 Tue, Jan 6 323 @Northern Illinois W 75 - 61 75% +11  94% 7 - 6 3 - 0 B- +7 D+ -2 B- F D+ A +9 D+ C- A+
 Fri, Jan 9 83 Miami (OH) L 73 - 87 34% -17  0% 7 - 7 3 - 1 D -10 D+ -3 D+ D- B- D- -7 F+ D+ C-
 Tue, Jan 13 209 Ohio W 101 - 85 70% +4  51% 8 - 7 4 - 1 B +10 A+ +22 A+ A+ B+ F -12 D- F C
 Fri, Jan 16 144 @Kent St. L 84 - 87 35% +0  43% 8 - 8 4 - 2 C +1 B+ +8 C+ A- C+ D- -7 F+ C- F
 Tue, Jan 20 185 @Massachusetts L 82 - 84 44% -2  20% 8 - 9 4 - 3 C -1 B +6 A- D+ F D -6 F D C+
 Sat, Jan 24 166 Bowling Green W 73 - 72 62% -1  31% 9 - 9 5 - 3 C- -2 C +0 D- B A+ C- -3 F A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 27 79 @Akron L 81 - 91 16% -0  34% 9 - 10 5 - 4 C +1 B+ +8 A+ C- D- D- -8 C- F B-
 Sat, Jan 31 313 Ball St. W 73 - 55 87% +12  92% 10 - 10 6 - 4 B- +6 D+ -3 C F C- A +10 B+ A A-
 Tue, Feb 3 144 Kent St. L 72 - 75 57% +6  91% 10 - 11 6 - 5 D+ -5 D+ -3 C+ D- C+ C- -2 A- F+ C-
 Sat, Feb 7 201 @James Madison L 71 - 73 47% -2  27% 10 - 12 C -1 C- -1 B- D B C -1 D C B
 Wed, Feb 11 288 @Western Michigan W 90 - 79 66% +5  79% 11 - 12 7 - 5 B- +6 A +12 A+ F A+ D -5 B F F
 Sat, Feb 14 166 @Bowling Green L 70 - 80 39% -6  24% 11 - 13 7 - 6 D+ -7 C+ +3 D B A F -11 D F F
 Sat, Feb 21 248 Eastern Michigan W 94 - 75 77% +17  99% 12 - 13 8 - 6 B +11 A+ +15 A+ F A- D+ -4 B- F C+
 Tue, Feb 24 323 Northern Illinois W 82 - 69 89%
 Sat, Feb 28 209 @Ohio L 80 - 81 48%
 Tue, Mar 3 83 @Miami (OH) L 78 - 88 17%
 Fri, Mar 6 207 Buffalo W 82 - 77 69%
Totals 14 - 15 10 - 8 +0 C+ +3 A+ B D+ D+ -3 B+ B- C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ C A B+ B 41% 57% 31% D+ B- C- C- C- B- D+ B- C- D+ D+ C D D 41% 16% 42% D D D- C+ D+ B- B+ C B+
1.13 57% 47% 38% +4 -1 1.09 29% 1.0 .28 16% .28 75% .21 1.13 61% 38% 37% +3 +1 1.10 35% 1.0 .35 18% .25 72% .20
Nov
3		 South Alabama B- B F A+ A+ 24% 14% 61% D+ A+ F A D- C D- B D F F F D+ F 55% 12% 33% F F F B- F A- A- A+ A+
1.15 67% 14% 47% +10 0 1.22 19% 1.3 .26 17% .17 78% .13 1.18 68% 50% 35% +7 +2 1.22 35% 1.1 .39 17% .24 38% .09
Nov
8		 Marshall D- F A+ C+ C- 41% 29% 30% C- C- C+ F F+ D- D+ A C+ D- F A+ F F 25% 10% 65% F F D- A+ A A- B A- B+
1.03 35% 69% 35% 0 -1 1.00 37% 0.6 .22 20% .33 79% .26 1.20 85% 20% 44% +15 0 1.33 36% 0.7 .24 21% .21 67% .14
Nov
11		 Wright St. A- A D+ A+ A- 44% 36% 20% F+ B+ A+ B+ A+ F A- B- A- B F C+ D- F 36% 26% 38% B+ F B- F D+ A+ C F D
1.22 70% 38% 44% +8 -1 1.16 46% 1.2 .54 23% .37 74% .27 1.07 80% 36% 38% +9 -1 1.19 29% 1.3 .38 29% .32 87% .27
Nov
15		 Detroit Mercy C+ A A+ D A 40% 17% 43% C- A- C+ F D+ F A+ D+ A+ D+ C D+ C+ C 43% 21% 36% F D+ D+ B- C C C A+ B
1.18 71% 67% 30% +8 +1 1.19 33% 0.9 .30 18% .48 70% .34 1.09 56% 42% 33% -1 0 1.02 35% 0.9 .30 16% .26 65% .17
Nov
19		 Youngstown St. B+ A+ F A+ A- 56% 19% 26% B+ A- B F+ C- C+ A A+ A+ B- B- B F D 38% 6% 56% D- D D+ F+ D- A+ B B+ B+
1.23 77% 10% 43% +9 +2 1.22 36% 0.8 .29 17% .42 85% .36 1.01 56% 33% 41% +4 +2 1.15 32% 1.2 .39 30% .23 67% .15
Nov
24		 Troy C C- C+ B- C+ 36% 36% 28% F C C+ C+ C+ C+ C+ A- B- B+ C F A+ A- 48% 7% 45% D- B+ D+ A+ A- C+ B+ D- B-
1.09 56% 44% 36% +2 -2 1.02 32% 1.1 .35 16% .29 76% .22 0.99 57% 75% 19% -8 +2 0.91 35% 0.6 .23 17% .25 79% .19
Nov
26		 Belmont D+ B B- D C+ 33% 15% 53% B- C+ F A+ D+ C+ D- F+ F+ C- D+ F F F 36% 4% 60% D+ F F F F A+ A+ B- A+
1.01 61% 38% 31% -1 0 1.00 17% 1.7 .29 17% .22 69% .15 1.22 67% 50% 50% +18 +2 1.42 40% 1.6 .64 28% .06 67% .04
Dec
6		 Oakland B+ C- A+ F B+ 46% 25% 29% C+ B A C B+ C D+ B+ C- D- D+ F B+ D+ 67% 6% 27% F D- A+ F D- F B+ B+ A-
1.24 59% 88% 22% +8 0 1.17 45% 0.9 .42 15% .21 79% .17 1.26 60% 50% 29% +1 +4 1.11 21% 2.0 .41 6% .27 70% .19
Dec
13		 Robert Morris D F F B- F 43% 35% 22% F F D- D+ D A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ F+ C+ A- C 42% 23% 35% C- C C A+ A+ F F B- F
1.02 45% 22% 36% -10 -2 0.78 24% 0.9 .21 10% .49 87% .42 1.09 65% 36% 29% 0 0 1.02 36% 0.7 .26 13% .47 64% .30
Dec
16		 Michigan St. B- F A B C+ 27% 31% 42% D C D B C- A+ C B+ C+ D C A+ F D 48% 15% 37% F D- F A- D+ A- C+ C+ B-
0.96 25% 44% 36% -6 -2 0.86 14% 0.8 .12 6% .25 76% .19 1.29 62% 25% 50% +9 +1 1.22 50% 0.9 .47 21% .34 74% .25
Dec
30		 Western Michigan C- A+ A+ F F+ 37% 22% 41% D F+ A+ D- B+ C- A+ D- A+ D+ A- C- D- C- 36% 27% 38% B- C F A+ C- A- B- C+ B-
1.17 78% 55% 10% -4 0 0.94 43% 1.0 .43 14% .58 67% .39 1.10 45% 40% 38% -2 -1 0.96 45% 0.7 .33 21% .25 71% .18
Jan
3		 Central Michigan C F+ B- B- D+ 37% 41% 22% F D- C F F A+ A+ A+ A+ C C B+ F D 38% 27% 35% C D A+ F B F A F+ B+
1.12 50% 40% 36% -1 -3 0.94 35% 0.8 .27 10% .51 81% .41 1.07 57% 33% 42% +3 -1 1.05 13% 2.0 .25 13% .20 75% .15
Jan
6		 Northern Illinois D+ D- A+ A+ C+ 58% 19% 23% B- B- F+ F F D+ C F D A C+ A+ C C- 38% 2% 60% F+ D+ D B- C- A+ A+ C+ A
1.05 53% 60% 42% +4 +2 1.13 24% 0.5 .12 18% .33 63% .21 0.86 53% 0% 33% -3 +2 1.00 34% 0.8 .26 30% .22 64% .14
Jan
9		 Miami (OH) D+ F D+ A+ C 28% 41% 31% F D+ C+ F D- B- A- A+ A+ D- F+ F F+ F 39% 13% 48% D F+ D C+ D+ C- A+ F A+
1.05 47% 36% 47% +2 -3 1.00 30% 0.6 .18 16% .34 85% .29 1.25 73% 57% 41% +13 +1 1.30 28% 1.1 .31 14% .13 88% .12
Jan
13		 Ohio A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 40% 30% 30% D- A+ A+ A+ A+ B+ D A+ B F C+ F D- F 31% 33% 37% A D- F F F C C A- B-
1.44 62% 75% 44% +17 -1 1.34 46% 1.4 .63 13% .28 94% .26 1.21 56% 59% 37% +8 -2 1.13 36% 1.2 .44 16% .32 63% .20
Jan
16		 Kent St. B+ D F+ A+ C 53% 13% 35% A- C+ C- A+ A- C+ A+ D A+ D- F+ D+ C F+ 45% 11% 45% F+ F+ F+ B+ C- F F C+ F
1.17 52% 29% 42% 0 +2 1.05 29% 1.4 .41 15% .48 69% .33 1.21 67% 40% 33% +4 +2 1.13 41% 0.9 .38 13% .57 72% .41
Jan
20		 Massachusetts B B- A A+ A 36% 34% 30% F A- C- D+ D+ F B+ A A D D B+ F F 45% 12% 43% F F F A D C+ D- C- D-
1.16 65% 50% 43% +10 -2 1.19 26% 1.0 .26 21% .45 80% .36 1.19 64% 33% 43% +8 +2 1.20 43% 1.0 .43 20% .39 68% .26
Jan
24		 Bowling Green C F C C+ D- 39% 22% 39% D+ D- C A B A+ F A+ D- C- C- F F F 67% 8% 25% F F F A+ A+ A+ A A- A
1.08 39% 38% 35% -7 0 0.88 28% 1.3 .36 12% .20 92% .18 1.06 59% 75% 46% +8 +4 1.25 36% 0.2 .07 24% .23 67% .15
Jan
27		 Akron B+ C+ F A+ A 52% 10% 38% A A+ D- B+ C- D- D B D+ D- C C D C 52% 9% 39% F C- F B F B- C+ D+ C+
1.16 59% 0% 55% +9 +2 1.25 26% 1.1 .30 21% .24 77% .18 1.30 61% 40% 38% +4 +2 1.15 49% 1.2 .57 17% .24 79% .19
Jan
31		 Ball St. D+ B+ B C- C+ 33% 24% 43% D+ C F C F C- D+ A- C A A C- A+ A- 43% 18% 39% D+ B+ D+ A+ A A- F C F
1.08 69% 42% 33% +4 -1 1.08 21% 1.0 .21 19% .26 86% .22 0.81 42% 38% 24% -13 +1 0.77 28% 0.4 .10 21% .50 70% .35
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
3		 Kent St. D+ D+ A+ D C+ 49% 21% 30% C+ C+ C+ F D- C+ F+ A D C- A+ B+ C A- 31% 24% 44% A- A- F C F+ C- C+ B- C+
1.06 54% 55% 31% 0 +1 1.04 32% 0.7 .22 15% .26 80% .21 1.10 41% 31% 33% -8 -1 0.85 42% 1.1 .44 18% .37 71% .27
Feb
7		 James Madison C- B- A+ D B 38% 31% 31% D- B- F A+ D B F D- F C F B- B- D 38% 13% 49% D+ D F A C B D+ F F
1.07 60% 50% 31% +3 -1 1.06 18% 1.3 .24 11% .25 67% .17 1.10 71% 33% 32% +3 +1 1.09 36% 0.8 .30 20% .32 88% .28
Feb
11		 Western Michigan A C+ A+ A+ A+ 49% 15% 36% B- A+ F A+ F A+ A+ F B+ D A+ D+ B- B- 28% 31% 41% A B C- F F F C F D
1.31 62% 75% 47% +14 +1 1.34 14% 1.5 .21 7% .44 61% .27 1.15 40% 41% 32% -5 -2 0.87 32% 1.6 .50 12% .28 82% .23
Feb
14		 Bowling Green C+ F A+ B+ C- 27% 33% 40% F D B+ C+ B A F B+ F+ F A- A- F D 50% 14% 36% C- D C+ F F F C- B C
1.07 14% 59% 38% -3 -2 0.92 34% 1.1 .37 14% .23 77% .18 1.22 48% 29% 50% +2 +2 1.10 26% 1.4 .37 11% .32 68% .22
Feb
21		 Eastern Michigan A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 54% 19% 27% B A+ F C F A- B F C D+ F A+ A B 40% 26% 34% C- B- B- F F C+ D F F
1.32 79% 70% 43% +21 +1 1.46 17% 1.0 .17 13% .35 64% .22 1.05 71% 14% 28% -4 -1 0.92 24% 1.9 .45 18% .29 88% .26



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.3 0.5 3rd
4th 0.4 25.3 32.1 5.5 63.3 4th
5th 0.1 10.8 17.1 0.6 28.7 5th
6th 0.8 5.6 6.4 6th
7th 0.8 0.3 1.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 1.7 17.1 42.4 32.9 5.8 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 5.8% 8.7% 8.7% 12.9 0.1 0.4 0.1 5.3
11-7 32.9% 6.8% 6.8% 14.1 0.3 1.3 0.6 30.7
10-8 42.4% 4.9% 4.9% 14.8 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.0 40.3
9-9 17.1% 3.5% 3.5% 15.5 0.3 0.3 16.5
8-10 1.7% 1.9% 1.9% 15.9 0.0 0.0 1.7
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 14.4 94.6 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 12.9 18.3 71.9 9.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.4%
Lose Out 1.4%