Toledo
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.5 #180
Expected Predictive Rating -1.1 #185
Pace 71.6 #112
Improvement -1.9 #284

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #126 C+ D+ B- C D
Defense #262 F C- B A+ D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #110 1.14 #200 +1.2 #132
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #43 0.88 #42 +4.8 #14
Three Pointers 30% #353 1.08 #100 -4.4 #314
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #133 +1.6 #135
Freethrows 16.5 #229 76% #68 12.6 #180
Second Chance 30.0% #209 0.93 #302 0.28 #266
Turnovers 15.1% #89
Total Offense +1.4 #126

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #114 1.26 #297 -3.5 #291
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #338 0.79 #235 +1.9 #53
Three Pointers 45% #86 1.13 #327 -4.5 #332
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #336 -6.1 #337
Freethrows 11.2 #5 73% #196 8.1 #359
Second Chance 33.0% #269 1.02 #160 0.34 #221
Turnovers 18.5% #76
Total Defense -2.9 #262

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.6% #284 1.9% #331
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.9% #112 9.9% #331
Possession Length 16.4 #102 17.2 #171
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 #58 0.21 #302
Improvement -3.2 #345 +1.2 #100

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.1% 3.7% 2.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 14.0 14.5
.500 or above 46.0% 56.7% 30.0%
.500 or above in Conference 69.3% 80.3% 53.0%
Conference Champion 0.7% 1.1% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round3.0% 3.7% 2.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Ohio (Home) - 59.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 35 - 75 - 12
Quad 49 - 314 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 200 South Alabama L 74 - 76 65%  -9  0 - 1 -7 +6 A+ F C -14 F F A-
 Sat, Nov 8 159 Marshall L 73 - 85 57%  +1  0 - 2 -15 -3 C D+ F -12 F A+ A-
 Tue, Nov 11 148 @Wright St. W 81 - 71 32%  +4  1 - 2 +14 +14 A A+ F +0 F D+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 281 Detroit Mercy W 90 - 83 78%  +4  2 - 2 -3 +4 A D- F -7 F C C+
 Wed, Nov 19 210 Youngstown St. W 92 - 75 66%  +8  3 - 2 +11 +12 A+ B B- -2 D+ F A+
 Mon, Nov 24 137 Troy W 75 - 68 39%  +2  4 - 2 +8 +5 C C B- +4 A- A- C
 Wed, Nov 26 73 Belmont L 72 - 87 19%  -3  4 - 3 -7 +0 B- C- C -7 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 124 @Oakland L 97 - 98 26%  +1  4 - 4 +4 +12 B+ A- D+ -8 D+ D- F
 Sat, Dec 13 206 @Robert Morris L 70 - 75 42%  +6  4 - 5 -5 -2 F F A+ -2 C- A+ F
 Tue, Dec 16 14 @Michigan St. L 69 - 92 3%  -20  4 - 6 -2 +8 C+ C- A+ -10 F D+ A-
 Tue, Dec 30 265 Western Michigan W 84 - 79 77%  -3  5 - 6 1 - 0 -4 +3 F B+ D+ -8 C F A-
 Sat, Jan 3 323 @Central Michigan W 78 - 75 71%  -5  6 - 6 2 - 0 -4 +2 F F A+ -6 F B- F
 Tue, Jan 6 325 @Northern Illinois W 75 - 61 71%  +11  7 - 6 3 - 0 +7 -2 C+ F C- +9 C- B A+
 Fri, Jan 9 93 Miami (OH) L 73 - 87 34%  -17  7 - 7 3 - 1 -11 +0 C- D- C+ -12 F D+ C-
 Tue, Jan 13 170 Ohio W 81 - 78 60% 
 Sat, Jan 17 138 @Kent St. L 81 - 87 29% 
 Tue, Jan 20 167 @Massachusetts L 79 - 83 37% 
 Sat, Jan 24 132 Bowling Green L 77 - 78 50% 
 Tue, Jan 27 64 @Akron L 79 - 92 10% 
 Sat, Jan 31 312 Ball St. W 79 - 68 84% 
 Tue, Feb 3 138 Kent St. W 85 - 84 50% 
 Sat, Feb 7 204 @James Madison L 75 - 77 43% 
 Wed, Feb 11 265 @Western Michigan W 81 - 79 56% 
 Sat, Feb 14 132 @Bowling Green L 75 - 81 28% 
 Sat, Feb 21 197 Eastern Michigan W 76 - 72 63% 
 Tue, Feb 24 325 Northern Illinois W 84 - 72 85% 
 Sat, Feb 28 170 @Ohio L 78 - 81 38% 
 Fri, Mar 6 179 Buffalo W 80 - 77 61% 
Totals 14 - 14 10 - 7 -1 +1 C+ D+ B- -3 F C- B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 1.4 0.8 0.1 2.9 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.2 4.6 2.7 0.4 0.0 10.1 3rd
4th 0.2 2.5 6.8 3.6 0.3 0.0 13.5 4th
5th 0.0 1.8 7.9 4.9 0.4 0.0 15.1 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 7.1 6.8 1.0 0.0 16.2 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 5.8 7.8 1.8 0.1 16.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.8 6.0 2.3 0.1 12.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.1 3.8 1.8 0.1 8.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 1.6 0.9 0.1 3.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.4 4.5 9.5 14.9 19.3 19.3 15.0 9.2 4.5 1.5 0.4 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 58.7% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-4 19.0% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 2.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.4% 12.0% 12.0% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
14-4 1.5% 11.8% 11.8% 12.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.3
13-5 4.5% 8.2% 8.2% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.2
12-6 9.2% 6.0% 6.0% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 8.7
11-7 15.0% 4.8% 4.8% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 14.3
10-8 19.3% 3.3% 3.3% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 18.7
9-9 19.3% 1.8% 1.8% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 19.0
8-10 14.9% 1.2% 1.2% 15.6 0.1 0.1 14.7
7-11 9.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 9.4
6-12 4.5% 4.5
5-13 1.4% 1.4
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 14.1 96.9 0.0%