Toledo
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.1 #159
Expected Predictive Rating -0.7 #177
Pace 70.5 #137
Improvement +0.8 #147

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #103 C+ C- C+ C D+
Defense #260 D- C B- B+ D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #121 1.14 #198 +1.0 #139
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #55 0.88 #41 +4.4 #21
Three Pointers 32% #343 1.14 #32 -2.9 #284
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #107 +2.5 #107
Freethrows 0.29 #239 77% #29 0.22 #166
Second Chance 30.5% #184 0.95 #285 0.29 #237
Turnovers 15.5% #112
Total Offense +2.6 #103

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #78 1.23 #277 -3.9 #306
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #337 0.82 #283 +1.7 #65
Three Pointers 42% #128 1.13 #330 -3.2 #312
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #333 -5.4 #333
Freethrows 0.23 #23 70% #69 0.16 #19
Second Chance 34.4% #320 0.94 #65 0.32 #210
Turnovers 18.4% #80
Total Defense -2.8 #260

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.4% #280 2.0% #343
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 6.4% #75 8.4% #325
Possession Length 16.6 #111 17.3 #191
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #58 0.21 #294
Improvement -0.2 #190 +1.0 #119

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.5% 4.9% 3.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.7 14.3
.500 or above 66.4% 79.4% 48.6%
.500 or above in Conference 92.5% 97.7% 85.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round4.5% 4.9% 3.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kent St. (Home) - 57.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 34 - 65 - 13
Quad 411 - 216 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 194 South Alabama L 74 - 76 69% -9  0 - 1 -7 +7 A+ D- C+ -15 F F+ B+
 Sat, Nov 8 153 Marshall L 73 - 85 61% +1  0 - 2 -15 -2 C D D -12 F A+ B-
 Tue, Nov 11 144 @Wright St. W 81 - 71 35% +4  1 - 2 +14 +13 B+ A+ F +2 F C- A+
 Sat, Nov 15 278 Detroit Mercy W 90 - 83 81% +4  2 - 2 -3 +4 B+ D+ F -7 D+ C C
 Wed, Nov 19 225 Youngstown St. W 92 - 75 73% +8  3 - 2 +10 +11 A- C- B- -1 D- D A+
 Mon, Nov 24 140 Troy W 75 - 68 45% +2  4 - 2 +8 +4 C- C+ B- +5 B+ A C
 Wed, Nov 26 74 Belmont L 72 - 87 23% -3  4 - 3 -7 -0 C+ D+ C+ -7 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 129 @Oakland L 97 - 98 31% +1  4 - 4 +4 +13 B B+ C -9 D D F
 Sat, Dec 13 220 @Robert Morris L 70 - 75 51% +6  4 - 5 -5 -3 F D- A+ -2 C A+ F
 Tue, Dec 16 10 @Michigan St. L 69 - 92 3% -20  4 - 6 +0 +9 C C- A+ -8 D- C- B+
 Tue, Dec 30 273 Western Michigan W 84 - 79 81% -3  5 - 6 1 - 0 -4 +2 D- B- C- -7 C+ D+ B+
 Sat, Jan 3 294 @Central Michigan W 78 - 75 67% -5  6 - 6 2 - 0 -2 +4 D F A+ -5 D- B F+
 Tue, Jan 6 308 @Northern Illinois W 75 - 61 71% +11  7 - 6 3 - 0 +8 -0 B- F C- +8 C- C+ A+
 Fri, Jan 9 90 Miami (OH) L 73 - 87 38% -17  7 - 7 3 - 1 -11 -1 D+ D- B- -10 F+ D C-
 Tue, Jan 13 199 Ohio W 101 - 85 70% +4  8 - 7 4 - 1 +10 +25 A+ A+ A -15 D- F C-
 Fri, Jan 16 145 @Kent St. L 84 - 87 35% +0  8 - 8 4 - 2 +1 +10 C+ A- C -9 F+ C F
 Tue, Jan 20 173 @Massachusetts L 82 - 84 42% -2  8 - 9 4 - 3 -0 +10 A- C- F -10 F D C+
 Sat, Jan 24 151 Bowling Green W 73 - 72 60% -1  9 - 9 5 - 3 -2 +3 D- B A+ -4 F A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 27 61 @Akron L 81 - 91 13% -0  9 - 10 5 - 4 +2 +12 A+ D+ D -9 C F C+
 Sat, Jan 31 298 Ball St. W 73 - 55 84% +12  10 - 10 6 - 4 +7 -2 C F C- +9 B+ A A-
 Tue, Feb 3 145 Kent St. W 83 - 81 58%
 Sat, Feb 7 205 @James Madison L 77 - 78 48%
 Wed, Feb 11 273 @Western Michigan W 81 - 78 61%
 Sat, Feb 14 151 @Bowling Green L 76 - 80 38%
 Sat, Feb 21 237 Eastern Michigan W 78 - 71 74%
 Tue, Feb 24 308 Northern Illinois W 83 - 71 86%
 Sat, Feb 28 199 @Ohio L 80 - 81 48%
 Tue, Mar 3 90 @Miami (OH) L 79 - 88 19%
 Fri, Mar 6 204 Buffalo W 83 - 77 70%
Totals 15 - 14 11 - 7 +0 +3 C+ C- C+ -3 D- C B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 8.5 12.2 5.7 0.7 28.5 3rd
4th 0.0 2.1 14.8 16.8 5.2 0.4 39.3 4th
5th 0.4 6.5 8.4 1.2 0.0 16.5 5th
6th 0.0 2.0 5.3 1.2 0.0 8.5 6th
7th 0.3 2.6 1.2 0.0 4.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 1.0 0.0 1.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.1 1.4 6.0 15.2 25.9 26.5 17.5 6.5 1.1 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 1.9% 0.0    0.0
13-5 0.2% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 1.1% 11.6% 11.6% 12.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0
13-5 6.5% 7.7% 7.7% 12.9 0.1 0.3 0.1 6.0
12-6 17.5% 6.0% 6.0% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 16.4
11-7 26.5% 5.0% 5.0% 13.9 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 25.2
10-8 25.9% 3.9% 3.9% 14.6 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.0 24.9
9-9 15.2% 2.5% 2.5% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 14.8
8-10 6.0% 1.4% 1.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 5.9
7-11 1.4% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.4
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 13.9 95.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%