Towson
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.6 170
Results Rating -1.2 181
Pace 61.3 348
Improvement +0.0 193

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 246 D C- C D D-
Defense C+ 112 B- B D+ B C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 296 D+ 55% 270 -3.5 300
2 Pt. Jumpers 49% 55 B- 42% 65 +4.6 19
Three Pointers 36% 291 D- 30% 334 -5.1 329
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- -1.5 338 D+ -2.5 270
1st FG Attempt D 0.94 306
Second Chance B+ 36.1% 37 F 0.82 361 C- 0.30 209
Turnovers C 17.2% 200
Freethrows D+ 0.28 265 D 68% 316 D 0.19 304
Total Offense C- -2.7 246

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D 40% 301 B- 9.4% 97
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 13% 343 B 2.7% 33
Three Pointers F 70% 360 C- 1.2% 269
Total F 40% 361 B 4.5% 56

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 241 C+ 56% 135 -1.7 118
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 171 D+ 41% 277 +0.6 237
Three Pointers 43% 123 B 31% 58 -1.0 137
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.1 140 B- -2.0 101
1st FG Attempt B- 0.98 110
Second Chance B 27.0% 64 C+ 0.98 106 B 0.27 62
Turnovers D+ 15.6% 255
Freethrows B- 0.27 82 B 70% 63 B 0.19 62
Total Defense C+ +2.2 112

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 43% 69 C- 10.0% 211
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B+ 15% 12 C 4.6% 191
Three Pointers B- 80% 76 D+ 0.5% 265
Total B 49% 49 C- 4.8% 238

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.4 289 18.1 297
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 207 0.15 113
Improvement +0.1 #179 -0.1 #200

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 202 170 141
Results Rating Rank 221 180 141
Conference Record 7 - 11 8 - 10 10 - 8
Conference Finish 10 8 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5% 6% 4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.0 14.8
.500 or above 54% 76% 32%
.500 or above in Conference 46% 70% 22%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round5% 6% 4%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Drexel (Away) - 49.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 34 - 75 - 12
Quad 410 - 415 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 315 Loyola Maryland W 67 - 56 80% +4  55% 1 - 0 C +2 F+ -9 F+ D- D+ A+ +12 A A+ C-
 Sat, Nov 8 6 @Houston L 48 - 65 2% -9  1% 1 - 1 B +8 F -12 C C- F A+ +19 A- A A+
 Fri, Nov 14 302 Norfolk St. W 51 - 41 84% -1  39% 2 - 1 C -1 F -20 F F A- A+ +20 A+ D F
 Tue, Nov 18 201 @James Madison L 75 - 81 45% -3  23% 2 - 2 D+ -5 A- +9 C- B B- F -16 F A+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 124 Rhode Island W 62 - 55 38% +2  60% 3 - 2 B +10 C- -1 D+ D- B- A+ +12 A+ F A
 Tue, Nov 25 107 Liberty W 72 - 69 33% -1  36% 4 - 2 B- +7 C+ +3 C- A+ B B +4 A C F+
 Wed, Nov 26 134 UC San Diego L 73 - 87 41% -13  0% 4 - 3 D- -12 B +7 D+ B- B F -21 F C- F
 Wed, Dec 3 171 Cornell W 93 - 80 62% +3  58% 5 - 3 B +9 A- +11 A- A+ D+ C -1 D A+ C
 Sun, Dec 7 51 @Central Florida L 61 - 86 10% -17  0% 5 - 4 D- -11 D -5 D+ B+ F F+ -9 C- F C-
 Tue, Dec 16 21 @Kansas L 49 - 73 3% -14  0% 5 - 5 C- -3 F -10 F C+ D B +4 A F C
 Mon, Dec 22 286 Sacred Heart W 72 - 47 82% +9  83% 6 - 5 A- +15 D -6 B- F D- A+ +22 A+ B- A+
 Mon, Dec 29 136 @William & Mary L 70 - 84 31% -8  27% 6 - 6 0 - 1 D -9 D+ -4 C- F B+ D -6 F A+ F+
 Wed, Dec 31 259 @Hampton L 62 - 63 58% -1  34% 6 - 7 0 - 2 C- -4 D+ -3 F C B- C -1 C- C C+
 Sat, Jan 3 199 Monmouth L 48 - 62 67% -7  12% 6 - 8 0 - 3 F -19 F -23 F F B- B- +3 C+ C+ A+
 Thu, Jan 8 106 Hofstra L 67 - 78 43% -7  10% 6 - 9 0 - 4 D -10 D -6 D- C+ F D -5 B F F+
 Sat, Jan 10 292 @Northeastern W 87 - 78 65% +6  68% 7 - 9 1 - 4 C+ +4 B+ +9 A A+ F D+ -4 D+ A- F
 Thu, Jan 15 149 College of Charleston W 61 - 52 58% +9  97% 8 - 9 2 - 4 B- +6 F -12 F B+ D A+ +19 A+ B+ A
 Mon, Jan 19 221 Drexel W 59 - 58 71% -7  6% 9 - 9 3 - 4 D+ -5 F -10 F B C B +5 D A C+
 Thu, Jan 22 227 @Elon W 72 - 59 51% +5  72% 10 - 9 4 - 4 B+ +12 B +6 F A+ A+ A +9 B+ B A+
 Sat, Jan 24 273 @N.C. A&T L 73 - 80 60% -4  23% 10 - 10 4 - 5 D -10 D -6 D+ F D D+ -4 F A B
 Thu, Jan 29 108 UNC Wilmington L 73 - 82 45% -3  12% 10 - 11 4 - 6 D -8 B- +5 B+ F A+ F -14 F B- F
 Sat, Jan 31 259 Hampton W 82 - 50 78% +18  99% 11 - 11 5 - 6 A+ +23 A- +10 A+ F B+ A+ +16 A A+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 106 @Hofstra L 49 - 71 23% -18  1% 11 - 12 5 - 7 F+ -15 F -17 D- F D- C -1 B- C D-
 Thu, Feb 12 214 Stony Brook W 69 - 57 70% +10  96% 12 - 12 6 - 7 B- +6 C- -2 D- C+ B- A +9 A+ C- F
 Sun, Feb 15 199 @Monmouth L 71 - 72 45% +3  76% 12 - 13 6 - 8 C -0 C+ +3 B- A+ F D+ -3 D+ A F
 Sun, Feb 22 221 @Drexel L 62 - 63 50%
 Thu, Feb 26 227 Elon W 74 - 68 72%
 Sat, Feb 28 197 Campbell W 74 - 69 66%
 Tue, Mar 3 214 @Stony Brook L 65 - 66 48%
Totals 14 - 15 8 - 10 -1 C- -3 C- D+ D- C+ +2 D- D D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D+ B- D- D+ 34% 49% 36% D- D B+ F C- C D+ D D C+ C+ D+ B B- 37% 21% 43% C B- B C+ B D+ B- B B
1.05 55% 42% 30% -3 -1 0.94 36% 0.8 .30 17% .28 68% .19 1.06 56% 41% 31% -2 0 0.98 27% 1.0 .27 16% .27 70% .19
Nov
3		 Loyola Maryland F+ D D- D F+ 49% 30% 21% D+ F+ B- F D- D+ B- B- B A+ C A+ A+ A+ 45% 11% 45% D A A+ A+ A+ C- F C- F
1.03 57% 36% 30% -3 0 0.96 34% 0.8 .29 15% .33 78% .25 0.86 57% 20% 19% -12 +2 0.81 18% 0.2 .03 17% .46 72% .33
Nov
8		 Houston F D A+ F C- 38% 24% 38% C+ C C+ D- C- F D+ F F A+ F A+ A+ A+ 32% 15% 53% F A- A B+ A A+ A+ A- A+
0.74 50% 50% 19% -9 0 0.83 28% 0.8 .22 28% .30 50% .15 1.00 82% 25% 21% -4 0 0.94 32% 0.9 .29 18% .13 71% .09
Nov
14		 Norfolk St. F D- F F F 22% 16% 61% F+ F C F F A- D+ F F+ A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ 33% 37% 29% A A+ D D+ D F A+ A+ A+
0.86 55% 25% 20% -16 -1 0.69 34% 0.4 .15 13% .35 61% .21 0.69 6% 32% 13% -29 -3 0.39 33% 1.1 .35 10% .21 27% .06
Nov
18		 James Madison A- A D- D- C 37% 31% 33% F+ C- A+ F B B- A- B- A- F F D+ F F 34% 11% 55% C- F A+ B- A+ F F F F
1.22 68% 31% 29% -1 -1 0.98 45% 0.8 .37 11% .42 74% .31 1.32 73% 40% 50% +19 +1 1.41 9% 1.0 .09 11% .39 81% .31
Nov
24		 Rhode Island C- A+ C B- B 23% 52% 25% F D+ B- F D- B- B- D+ C+ A+ C+ F A+ A+ 34% 17% 49% B- A+ B F F A C+ A+ B+
1.01 70% 35% 36% +2 -5 0.95 34% 0.6 .22 20% .39 68% .26 0.90 57% 71% 5% -16 0 0.71 29% 1.7 .50 24% .35 63% .22
Nov
25		 Liberty C+ B+ A+ F C 35% 35% 30% F C- B+ A A+ B B- D+ C+ B F+ B A+ A 44% 6% 50% C+ A C C C F+ A F B
1.14 63% 63% 14% +1 -2 1.00 39% 1.4 .55 16% .26 71% .19 1.09 71% 33% 26% -1 +2 1.06 18% 1.0 .18 9% .17 80% .14
Nov
26		 UC San Diego B C- C- C- C 25% 33% 42% F D+ A F+ B- B B+ A+ A F D- C F F 31% 22% 47% A+ F A- F C- F C A+ A-
1.14 54% 35% 32% -3 -3 0.90 39% 0.9 .34 14% .31 82% .25 1.36 67% 36% 65% +24 -1 1.49 20% 1.4 .28 11% .26 47% .12
Dec
3		 Cornell A- C+ C+ A+ A 45% 23% 32% C- A- A+ B+ A+ D+ F F F C F C- C D 54% 13% 33% D+ D A A+ A+ C D+ D D
1.35 63% 42% 53% +12 0 1.26 47% 1.3 .59 16% .26 53% .14 1.16 71% 43% 35% +8 +2 1.23 24% 0.7 .17 17% .32 78% .25
Dec
7		 Central Florida D F+ A+ F D+ 33% 24% 43% C- D+ A D+ B+ F D+ F F F+ D- F A+ C- 45% 27% 29% C+ C- F+ F F C- F F F
0.95 47% 64% 25% -3 -1 0.93 35% 1.0 .35 23% .26 46% .12 1.34 68% 62% 21% +5 0 1.12 42% 1.5 .62 14% .38 90% .34
Dec
16		 Kansas F C D+ F F 30% 32% 38% D F A+ F C+ D C+ C C+ B A F+ B+ A+ 41% 18% 41% D A D+ F F C B+ A+ A
0.77 53% 31% 11% -17 -2 0.64 42% 0.6 .25 17% .23 67% .15 1.15 50% 44% 30% -5 0 0.94 34% 1.6 .54 14% .26 64% .16
Dec
22		 Sacred Heart D A+ A+ C B+ 31% 19% 50% D B- B F F D- D F F+ A+ A F A+ A+ 35% 10% 55% F+ A+ C B+ B- A+ A+ F A+
1.11 81% 50% 35% +10 0 1.21 37% 0.2 .09 17% .22 58% .13 0.72 44% 60% 18% -16 +1 0.73 26% 0.9 .24 25% .02 100% .02
Dec
29		 William & Mary D+ B+ C D C 33% 24% 43% D- C- C+ F F B+ C- F D- D D+ F F F 42% 15% 43% B- F A- A+ A+ F+ C- A B-
1.00 67% 38% 30% +1 -1 1.02 32% 0.5 .16 16% .27 56% .15 1.20 64% 63% 43% +12 +1 1.28 21% 0.3 .07 13% .35 67% .23
Dec
31		 Hampton D+ C+ B- F F 32% 34% 34% F F A F C B- A+ D+ A C F A+ A+ C- 33% 30% 37% B- C- C- C C C+ F+ D+ F
1.03 64% 40% 13% -8 -2 0.82 38% 0.8 .31 15% .51 65% .33 1.04 79% 23% 25% -3 -2 0.93 34% 0.9 .31 20% .41 75% .31
Jan
3		 Monmouth F F F F F 35% 17% 48% C- F C+ F F B- F A+ F B- A F A- C- 28% 38% 35% A+ C+ B- C C+ A+ F F F
0.76 39% 22% 28% -14 0 0.75 34% 0.4 .13 17% .11 83% .10 0.98 45% 53% 29% -1 -3 0.95 29% 1.0 .29 24% .39 84% .33
Jan
8		 Hofstra D F D- A C- 16% 45% 39% F D- B+ D C+ F A+ B A+ D C A+ D+ B 27% 30% 43% B+ B B- F F F+ F D+ F
1.00 25% 30% 40% -5 -5 0.82 37% 0.9 .34 19% .46 76% .35 1.16 58% 23% 37% -3 -2 0.93 31% 1.5 .47 12% .54 78% .42
Jan
10		 Northeastern B+ B+ A A+ A 52% 30% 18% D+ A A+ A+ A+ F C C C D+ D+ D- C D+ 39% 17% 44% C D+ A B- A- F F+ F F
1.27 70% 54% 50% +15 0 1.32 48% 1.3 .63 23% .34 72% .25 1.13 62% 44% 33% +2 +1 1.07 20% 1.0 .20 12% .35 86% .30
Jan
15		 College of Charleston F F C+ F F 29% 25% 46% C- F C A+ B+ D A- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ 36% 14% 50% D- A+ D- A+ B+ A A+ A A+
0.90 40% 38% 17% -17 -1 0.65 30% 1.3 .38 16% .30 88% .26 0.77 39% 14% 28% -15 +1 0.74 34% 0.7 .25 22% .17 67% .11
Jan
19		 Drexel F F C- D- F 36% 34% 30% D- F A D B C A D- B+ B D F B- D 44% 25% 31% C+ D A+ F A C+ A+ A+ A+
0.94 29% 38% 29% -13 -2 0.72 41% 0.9 .39 16% .40 71% .28 0.92 62% 50% 33% +4 0 1.10 8% 2.0 .15 21% .08 25% .02
Jan
22		 Elon B F+ F B+ F 31% 29% 41% D- F A+ C A+ A+ C A+ B A B A+ C+ B+ 37% 12% 51% B B+ C A B A+ D B- D+
1.22 47% 0% 40% -11 -2 0.78 50% 1.1 .57 8% .30 81% .24 1.00 53% 20% 33% -4 +1 0.95 33% 0.8 .27 22% .35 69% .24
Jan
24		 N.C. A&T D B- A+ F C- 35% 29% 37% D- D+ C- F F D A+ C A+ D+ F F D+ F 40% 16% 44% F F A B- A B F B+ F
1.02 61% 53% 26% +1 -1 1.02 26% 0.5 .13 15% .48 69% .33 1.12 72% 57% 35% +9 +1 1.22 22% 1.0 .22 21% .59 70% .41
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
29		 UNC Wilmington B- D- A+ F A- 37% 35% 27% D+ B+ F+ F F A+ A+ D- A F A+ F F F 24% 24% 52% B- F B+ C- B- F D+ D- D-
1.14 53% 72% 21% +5 -2 1.08 18% 0.8 .14 8% .39 70% .27 1.28 42% 58% 42% +7 -1 1.14 29% 1.1 .31 6% .40 75% .30
Jan
31		 Hampton A- A A A+ A+ 40% 30% 30% D- A+ D+ F F B+ B+ F C A+ A+ A D+ A+ 40% 25% 35% D A A+ A+ A+ F B- A+ A+
1.25 75% 47% 47% +15 -1 1.30 26% 0.5 .13 14% .44 60% .26 0.76 32% 25% 35% -13 0 0.75 24% 0.5 .11 14% .32 50% .16
Feb
7		 Hofstra F F C+ A+ D- 39% 30% 32% C- D- C- F F D- A- F C C A+ B F C 25% 33% 42% A B- C+ C- C D- C C+ C
0.79 24% 38% 43% -9 -1 0.82 28% 0.3 .07 18% .37 58% .22 1.15 42% 31% 45% +1 -3 0.98 32% 1.1 .35 13% .30 75% .22
Feb
12		 Stony Brook C- F A+ D- D 33% 30% 37% F+ D- B+ D C+ B- D+ C- D+ A C- A+ A+ A+ 27% 20% 53% B+ A+ C D C- F B- A+ B+
1.09 44% 50% 30% -3 -2 0.93 38% 0.8 .31 14% .26 71% .18 0.90 57% 20% 22% -13 -1 0.75 28% 1.0 .28 11% .23 62% .14
Feb
15		 Monmouth C+ B- B+ A A- 30% 32% 39% F B- A- A+ A+ F A F D- D+ A+ B- F D+ 28% 24% 48% C+ D+ F A+ A F C- A+ B
1.09 62% 43% 41% +7 -2 1.11 40% 1.3 .53 25% .37 44% .16 1.11 36% 33% 46% +1 -1 1.02 43% 0.5 .20 11% .31 61% .19



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 3rd
4th 0.5 8.4 8.9 4th
5th 6.5 4.1 10.6 5th
6th 0.2 14.7 14.9 6th
7th 2.7 10.3 13.0 7th
8th 0.2 18.2 1.5 19.9 8th
9th 6.6 12.8 19.3 9th
10th 0.5 7.5 0.6 8.5 10th
11th 2.6 2.1 0.0 4.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
Total 3.1 16.2 34.6 33.5 12.6 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 12.6% 9.4% 9.4% 13.2 0.1 0.8 0.3 0.0 11.5
9-9 33.5% 5.2% 5.2% 14.1 0.2 1.0 0.5 0.0 31.7
8-10 34.6% 4.0% 4.0% 14.9 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.1 33.2
7-11 16.2% 3.2% 3.2% 15.6 0.2 0.3 15.7
6-12 3.1% 2.4% 2.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 3.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 14.3 95.1 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.2% 100.0% 13.2 7.0 63.7 27.3 2.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.9%
Lose Out 1.6%