Towson
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.2 #175
Expected Predictive Rating -2.0 #200
Pace 60.7 #357
Improvement -3.2 #329

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #230 D D+ C F F
Defense #130 B- C+ D+ C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #328 1.15 #186 -3.8 #304
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% #21 0.80 #115 +4.8 #13
Three Pointers 37% #272 0.84 #335 -5.3 #331
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #297 -4.3 #297
Freethrows 13.1 #341 73% #174 9.6 #335
Second Chance 36.0% #43 0.79 #362 0.28 #261
Turnovers 16.4% #162
Total Offense -2.3 #230

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #207 1.16 #180 +0.3 #168
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #144 0.84 #299 -1.4 #277
Three Pointers 41% #196 0.83 #15 +3.8 #53
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #94 +2.8 #95
Freethrows 16.4 #141 75% #289 12.3 #189
Second Chance 26.2% #45 1.12 #276 0.29 #121
Turnovers 15.3% #264
Total Defense +1.1 #130

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.6% #347 -0.3% #140
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.9% #254 -5.2% #89
Possession Length 18.8 #328 18.1 #306
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #166 0.14 #72
Improvement -1.6 #278 -1.5 #273

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.4% 5.4% 3.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.0 14.7
.500 or above 41.2% 55.2% 27.9%
.500 or above in Conference 37.6% 51.7% 24.2%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.7% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 5.2% 2.0% 8.2%
First Four0.4% 0.2% 0.6%
First Round4.3% 5.3% 3.3%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northeastern (Away) - 48.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 34 - 75 - 12
Quad 410 - 415 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 336 Loyola Maryland W 67 - 56 82%  +4  1 - 0 -0 -9 F F C- +9 A+ A+ D-
 Sat, Nov 8 11 @Houston L 48 - 65 2%  -9  1 - 1 +5 -9 C- D+ F +13 B+ A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 14 272 Norfolk St. W 51 - 41 78%  -1  2 - 1 +1 -15 F F B+ +17 A+ F F
 Tue, Nov 18 204 @James Madison L 75 - 81 43%  -3  2 - 2 -5 +11 D+ B+ B- -17 F A+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 141 Rhode Island W 62 - 55 41%  +2  3 - 2 +8 +0 D+ F B+ +9 A+ F A
 Tue, Nov 25 99 Liberty W 72 - 69 27%  -1  4 - 2 +8 +7 C+ A+ C+ +1 B+ B F
 Wed, Nov 26 108 UC San Diego L 73 - 87 29%  -13  4 - 3 -10 +8 D C A- -19 F B- F
 Wed, Dec 3 168 Cornell W 93 - 80 60%  +3  5 - 3 +9 +14 A- A+ C- -4 C A+ C-
 Sun, Dec 7 50 @Central Florida L 61 - 86 9%  -17  5 - 4 -11 -1 C- A- F -13 D+ F C-
 Tue, Dec 16 18 @Kansas L 49 - 73 4%  -14  5 - 5 -4 -8 F B- F +1 A+ F C
 Mon, Dec 22 285 Sacred Heart W 72 - 47 79%  +9  6 - 5 +15 -3 B- F C- +20 A+ B+ A
 Mon, Dec 29 127 @William & Mary L 70 - 84 28%  -8  6 - 6 0 - 1 -9 +1 B- F A- -10 F A+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 252 @Hampton L 62 - 63 53%  -1  6 - 7 0 - 2 -3 -0 F B- B -3 C C- B-
 Sat, Jan 3 194 Monmouth L 48 - 62 65%  -7  6 - 8 0 - 3 -19 -21 F F C +1 C B- A+
 Thu, Jan 8 109 Hofstra L 67 - 78 40%  -7  6 - 9 0 - 4 -10 -3 D C F -7 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 233 @Northeastern L 70 - 71 49% 
 Thu, Jan 15 149 College of Charleston W 69 - 68 56% 
 Sat, Jan 17 248 Drexel W 66 - 59 74% 
 Thu, Jan 22 163 @Elon L 69 - 73 37% 
 Sat, Jan 24 305 @N.C. A&T W 71 - 67 64% 
 Thu, Jan 29 118 UNC Wilmington L 64 - 65 45% 
 Sat, Jan 31 252 Hampton W 68 - 61 74% 
 Sat, Feb 7 109 @Hofstra L 61 - 70 21% 
 Thu, Feb 12 276 Stony Brook W 67 - 59 78% 
 Sat, Feb 14 194 @Monmouth L 64 - 66 42% 
 Sat, Feb 21 248 @Drexel W 63 - 62 53% 
 Thu, Feb 26 163 Elon W 72 - 70 59% 
 Sat, Feb 28 199 Campbell W 73 - 69 65% 
 Tue, Mar 3 276 @Stony Brook W 64 - 62 59% 
Totals 14 - 15 8 - 10 -1 -2 D D+ C +1 B- C+ D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.8 1.4 0.3 3.8 3rd
4th 0.3 2.3 3.1 0.6 0.0 6.3 4th
5th 0.1 2.7 5.0 1.5 0.1 9.5 5th
6th 0.1 2.0 6.4 2.9 0.2 11.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 6.1 5.0 0.7 0.0 12.7 7th
8th 0.4 5.0 6.5 1.3 13.2 8th
9th 0.2 2.9 7.2 2.2 0.1 12.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.8 6.1 3.3 0.3 11.6 10th
11th 0.1 1.2 4.0 3.0 0.5 0.0 8.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.4 2.0 0.5 0.0 6.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.4 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 4.5 8.3 12.9 16.9 17.2 15.8 11.2 6.8 2.8 0.9 0.1 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 66.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0
13-5 19.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.1% 25.9% 25.9% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.9% 23.1% 23.1% 12.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7
12-6 2.8% 15.3% 15.3% 13.3 0.0 0.3 0.2 2.4
11-7 6.8% 10.7% 10.7% 13.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 6.1
10-8 11.2% 8.2% 8.2% 13.7 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 10.3
9-9 15.8% 4.6% 4.6% 14.4 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 15.1
8-10 17.2% 3.1% 3.1% 15.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 16.7
7-11 16.9% 2.3% 2.3% 15.6 0.2 0.2 16.5
6-12 12.9% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.3 12.6
5-13 8.3% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 8.2
4-14 4.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 4.5
3-15 1.8% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 1.8
2-16 0.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.6
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 14.3 95.6 0.0%