Towson
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.0 #155
Expected Predictive Rating -0.8 #180
Pace 60.9 #352
Improvement +0.6 #157

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #228 D C- C D+ D-
Defense #108 C+ B C- B- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #296 1.12 #216 -3.0 #285
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #27 0.82 #91 +4.6 #17
Three Pointers 35% #305 0.85 #349 -5.8 #338
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #308 -4.2 #307
Freethrows 0.27 #280 70% #259 0.19 #288
Second Chance 35.7% #45 0.83 #358 0.30 #219
Turnovers 16.6% #169
Total Offense -2.1 #228

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #218 1.14 #152 +1.0 #137
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #179 0.84 #306 -0.9 #252
Three Pointers 42% #145 0.90 #43 +1.9 #111
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #108 +2.0 #109
Freethrows 0.27 #78 71% #128 0.19 #83
Second Chance 26.0% #39 1.00 #138 0.26 #51
Turnovers 15.9% #229
Total Defense +2.1 #108

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.1% #336 -0.1% #154
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.3% #273 -3.9% #96
Possession Length 18.3 #287 18.1 #300
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #218 0.14 #78
Improvement +0.5 #146 +0.1 #186

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.1% 12.1% 6.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.6 14.3
.500 or above 68.1% 86.8% 59.6%
.500 or above in Conference 62.1% 83.5% 52.4%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round8.1% 12.1% 6.3%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Hofstra (Away) - 31.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 35 - 76 - 11
Quad 410 - 416 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 318 Loyola Maryland W 67 - 56 82% +4  1 - 0 +1 -7 F+ F+ C +9 A A+ D+
 Sat, Nov 8 6 @Houston L 48 - 65 2% -9  1 - 1 +8 -9 C- D+ D- +16 A- A A+
 Fri, Nov 14 307 Norfolk St. W 51 - 41 86% -1  2 - 1 -2 -17 F F A- +17 A+ D F
 Tue, Nov 18 205 @James Madison L 75 - 81 49% -3  2 - 2 -6 +11 C- B- C+ -17 F A+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 119 Rhode Island W 62 - 55 38% +2  3 - 2 +10 +1 D+ D- B +10 A+ F A-
 Tue, Nov 25 89 Liberty W 72 - 69 27% -1  4 - 2 +9 +7 C A+ B- +2 A- C D-
 Wed, Nov 26 138 UC San Diego L 73 - 87 45% -13  4 - 3 -13 +9 C- C+ B -23 F C F
 Wed, Dec 3 176 Cornell W 93 - 80 65% +3  5 - 3 +9 +13 B+ A+ D+ -4 D+ A+ C
 Sun, Dec 7 44 @Central Florida L 61 - 86 9% -17  5 - 4 -10 -1 C- A- F -12 C F C-
 Tue, Dec 16 14 @Kansas L 49 - 73 3% -14  5 - 5 -3 -8 F+ C+ D +3 A+ F C+
 Mon, Dec 22 276 Sacred Heart W 72 - 47 81% +9  6 - 5 +16 -2 B- F D +20 A+ C+ A
 Mon, Dec 29 150 @William & Mary L 70 - 84 36% -8  6 - 6 0 - 1 -10 -1 C F B+ -9 F A+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 251 @Hampton L 62 - 63 59% -1  6 - 7 0 - 2 -3 -0 F C B- -3 C C- B-
 Sat, Jan 3 207 Monmouth L 48 - 62 71% -7  6 - 8 0 - 3 -20 -20 F F B- -1 C B- A+
 Thu, Jan 8 126 Hofstra L 67 - 78 53% -7  6 - 9 0 - 4 -12 -5 D- C F -8 B F+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 256 @Northeastern W 87 - 78 59% +6  7 - 9 1 - 4 +7 +12 A A+ F -5 C- B+ F
 Thu, Jan 15 152 College of Charleston W 61 - 52 60% +9  8 - 9 2 - 4 +6 -11 F B- D- +18 A+ B A+
 Mon, Jan 19 206 Drexel W 59 - 58 71% -7  9 - 9 3 - 4 -5 -7 F B C +2 D A C+
 Thu, Jan 22 192 @Elon W 72 - 59 47% +5  10 - 9 4 - 4 +14 +10 F A+ A+ +6 A- B- A
 Sat, Jan 24 281 @N.C. A&T L 73 - 80 64% -4  10 - 10 4 - 5 -11 -3 D+ F D- -7 F A C+
 Thu, Jan 29 116 UNC Wilmington L 73 - 82 49% -3  10 - 11 4 - 6 -9 +6 B F A+ -16 F B F
 Sat, Jan 31 251 Hampton W 82 - 50 78% +18  11 - 11 5 - 6 +24 +12 A+ F B+ +13 A A+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 126 @Hofstra L 64 - 69 31%
 Thu, Feb 12 217 Stony Brook W 68 - 62 71%
 Sat, Feb 14 207 @Monmouth L 64 - 65 50%
 Sat, Feb 21 206 @Drexel L 61 - 62 49%
 Thu, Feb 26 192 Elon W 73 - 68 68%
 Sat, Feb 28 212 Campbell W 75 - 69 72%
 Tue, Mar 3 217 @Stony Brook W 65 - 64 51%
Totals 15 - 14 9 - 9 +0 -2 D C- C +2 C+ B C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.2 1.5 1.0 2.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 3.1 5.9 1.0 10.0 3rd
4th 1.0 8.5 2.6 0.0 12.2 4th
5th 0.0 4.9 7.4 0.3 12.7 5th
6th 0.7 11.0 2.6 0.0 14.3 6th
7th 0.1 5.1 8.6 0.3 14.0 7th
8th 0.9 9.4 2.0 0.0 12.4 8th
9th 0.2 4.2 5.8 0.1 10.3 9th
10th 0.0 1.2 4.9 1.2 7.3 10th
11th 0.2 1.7 1.8 0.0 3.8 11th
12th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.4 3.4 11.9 22.2 27.6 22.1 10.3 2.1 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 3.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 2.1% 24.4% 24.4% 12.8 0.2 0.3 0.0 1.6
11-7 10.3% 18.9% 18.9% 13.2 0.2 1.2 0.6 0.0 8.3
10-8 22.1% 10.7% 10.7% 13.8 0.0 0.7 1.4 0.3 0.0 19.8
9-9 27.6% 5.9% 5.9% 14.3 0.1 0.9 0.6 0.0 26.0
8-10 22.2% 5.2% 5.2% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.1 21.1
7-11 11.9% 3.6% 3.6% 15.6 0.2 0.3 11.4
6-12 3.4% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.1 3.3
5-13 0.4% 0.4
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 8.1% 8.1% 0.0% 14.0 91.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 12.8 32.7 58.4 8.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%
Lose Out 0.2%