Towson
Colonial Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.4#209
Expected Predictive Rating-4.4#242
Pace58.8#360
Improvement-2.4#303

Offense
Total Offense-3.4#271
First Shot-9.1#361
After Offensive Rebound+5.7#2
Layup/Dunks-3.4#301
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#178
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#266
Freethrows-2.6#320
Improvement-1.1#271

Defense
Total Defense+1.0#137
First Shot-0.5#189
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#70
Layups/Dunks-1.3#218
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#49
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#223
Freethrows-0.2#202
Improvement-1.2#279
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.9% 7.2% 4.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.5 15.0
.500 or above 30.2% 48.0% 24.2%
.500 or above in Conference 62.5% 79.6% 56.7%
Conference Champion 5.2% 11.5% 3.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.0% 0.7% 3.7%
First Four0.6% 0.5% 0.7%
First Round4.6% 7.0% 3.8%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Wilmington (Away) - 25.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 34 - 74 - 12
Quad 410 - 614 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 53   @ St. Mary's L 69-76 8%     0 - 1 +6.3 +7.7 -1.9
  Nov 12, 2024 62   @ South Carolina L 54-80 10%     0 - 2 -14.5 -12.2 -2.7
  Nov 16, 2024 135   James Madison W 67-63 47%     1 - 2 +2.5 -2.1 +4.9
  Nov 20, 2024 238   @ Nicholls St. W 70-64 46%     2 - 2 +4.7 +4.0 +1.3
  Nov 24, 2024 350   @ Morgan St. W 64-60 74%     3 - 2 -5.2 -12.7 +7.6
  Nov 28, 2024 116   Kent St. L 54-65 30%     3 - 3 -8.1 -5.0 -5.0
  Nov 29, 2024 194   Kennesaw St. L 63-67 OT 47%     3 - 4 -5.6 -8.1 +2.3
  Nov 30, 2024 77   UC Irvine L 60-67 18%     3 - 5 +0.5 -2.6 +2.7
  Dec 07, 2024 245   Maryland Baltimore Co. L 71-84 69%     3 - 6 -20.6 -11.1 -8.9
  Dec 14, 2024 163   Duquesne L 47-65 41%     3 - 7 -18.2 -10.3 -13.0
  Dec 17, 2024 256   @ Robert Morris L 67-68 49%     3 - 8 -3.2 +3.2 -6.5
  Dec 22, 2024 185   Bryant W 70-65 57%     4 - 8 +0.8 -4.2 +5.1
  Jan 02, 2025 134   @ UNC Wilmington L 62-69 25%    
  Jan 04, 2025 117   @ College of Charleston L 63-71 21%    
  Jan 09, 2025 170   Northeastern W 64-63 54%    
  Jan 11, 2025 154   @ Drexel L 58-64 31%    
  Jan 16, 2025 149   Hofstra W 60-59 51%    
  Jan 18, 2025 306   Stony Brook W 70-61 78%    
  Jan 23, 2025 324   N.C. A&T W 74-64 82%    
  Jan 27, 2025 170   @ Northeastern L 61-66 33%    
  Jan 30, 2025 215   @ Delaware L 67-70 40%    
  Feb 01, 2025 154   Drexel W 61-60 52%    
  Feb 06, 2025 306   @ Stony Brook W 67-64 59%    
  Feb 08, 2025 261   @ Monmouth L 65-66 50%    
  Feb 13, 2025 215   Delaware W 70-67 61%    
  Feb 15, 2025 261   Monmouth W 68-62 70%    
  Feb 20, 2025 181   @ Elon L 62-66 35%    
  Feb 22, 2025 296   @ Campbell W 63-61 57%    
  Feb 27, 2025 221   William & Mary W 74-70 64%    
  Mar 01, 2025 248   Hampton W 65-60 69%    
Projected Record 13 - 17 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.8 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 5.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.3 2.9 1.3 0.3 0.0 7.2 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.4 3.8 1.5 0.2 0.0 8.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 4.8 2.4 0.2 0.0 9.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 5.1 3.5 0.5 0.0 10.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 3.9 5.0 1.0 0.0 10.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 2.1 5.9 2.1 0.1 10.3 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 5.0 3.4 0.2 0.0 9.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 3.3 4.3 0.7 0.0 8.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.0 1.4 0.0 7.2 10th
11th 0.1 1.0 2.8 1.7 0.1 5.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.7 1.5 0.3 0.0 4.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.3 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.0 4.1 6.8 10.3 13.2 14.9 14.6 12.4 9.3 6.0 3.2 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 93.3% 0.4    0.4 0.1
15-3 81.2% 1.2    0.9 0.3 0.0
14-4 54.5% 1.8    0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 21.8% 1.3    0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.8% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.2% 5.2 2.4 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 19.2% 19.2% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.4% 20.5% 20.5% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4
15-3 1.5% 16.7% 16.7% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.3
14-4 3.2% 15.7% 15.7% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.7
13-5 6.0% 13.3% 13.3% 14.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 5.2
12-6 9.3% 10.3% 10.3% 14.8 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 8.4
11-7 12.4% 7.0% 7.0% 15.1 0.1 0.6 0.2 11.5
10-8 14.6% 4.3% 4.3% 15.4 0.0 0.4 0.2 14.0
9-9 14.9% 2.7% 2.7% 15.9 0.1 0.4 14.5
8-10 13.2% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2 13.0
7-11 10.3% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 10.2
6-12 6.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 6.8
5-13 4.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 4.1
4-14 2.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.0
3-15 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.8
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 2.0 1.2 95.1 0.0%