Towson
Colonial Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.4#160
Expected Predictive Rating+2.0#138
Pace59.2#357
Improvement+3.0#62

Offense
Total Offense-1.3#212
First Shot-7.6#351
After Offensive Rebound+6.3#2
Layup/Dunks-3.4#298
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#120
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#251
Freethrows-2.8#331
Improvement+2.4#62

Defense
Total Defense+1.7#131
First Shot-0.1#185
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#55
Layups/Dunks-0.6#194
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#43
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#262
Freethrows+0.4#155
Improvement+0.6#155
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.8% 16.7% 13.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 14.0 14.4
.500 or above 99.0% 99.7% 97.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 70.3% 77.5% 50.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round15.8% 16.7% 13.2%
Second Round0.8% 0.9% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stony Brook (Away) - 72.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 37 - 78 - 10
Quad 411 - 319 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 31   @ St. Mary's L 69-76 7%     0 - 1 +9.6 +10.0 -0.9
  Nov 12, 2024 79   @ South Carolina L 54-80 19%     0 - 2 -16.2 -11.4 -5.2
  Nov 16, 2024 137   James Madison W 67-63 56%     1 - 2 +2.9 -1.6 +4.8
  Nov 20, 2024 197   @ Nicholls St. W 70-64 48%     2 - 2 +6.8 +4.3 +3.1
  Nov 24, 2024 329   @ Morgan St. W 64-60 79%     3 - 2 -4.1 -12.6 +8.7
  Nov 28, 2024 148   Kent St. L 54-65 48%     3 - 3 -10.0 -5.7 -6.2
  Nov 29, 2024 170   Kennesaw St. L 63-67 OT 52%     3 - 4 -4.2 -6.2 +1.9
  Nov 30, 2024 67   UC Irvine L 60-67 23%     3 - 5 +1.0 -1.6 +2.2
  Dec 07, 2024 261   Maryland Baltimore Co. L 71-84 79%     3 - 6 -21.2 -12.5 -8.0
  Dec 14, 2024 142   Duquesne L 47-65 47%     3 - 7 -16.8 -9.8 -12.2
  Dec 17, 2024 194   @ Robert Morris L 67-68 48%     3 - 8 -0.1 +3.4 -3.6
  Dec 22, 2024 144   Bryant W 70-65 57%     4 - 8 +3.7 -3.3 +7.0
  Jan 02, 2025 117   @ UNC Wilmington W 65-61 OT 32%     5 - 8 1 - 0 +9.3 -3.8 +13.2
  Jan 04, 2025 131   @ College of Charleston L 69-77 36%     5 - 9 1 - 1 -3.8 -0.8 -3.3
  Jan 09, 2025 206   Northeastern W 80-73 69%     6 - 9 2 - 1 +2.3 +16.0 -12.8
  Jan 11, 2025 195   @ Drexel W 93-82 OT 48%     7 - 9 3 - 1 +11.9 +17.0 -5.8
  Jan 16, 2025 174   Hofstra W 65-60 63%     8 - 9 4 - 1 +2.0 +5.9 -3.1
  Jan 18, 2025 318   Stony Brook W 53-49 87%     9 - 9 5 - 1 -7.7 -17.0 +10.1
  Jan 23, 2025 333   N.C. A&T W 83-67 90%     10 - 9 6 - 1 +2.6 +6.5 -3.2
  Jan 27, 2025 206   @ Northeastern W 75-65 51%     11 - 9 7 - 1 +10.2 +7.7 +3.2
  Jan 30, 2025 232   @ Delaware W 76-66 58%     12 - 9 8 - 1 +8.4 +1.6 +7.1
  Feb 01, 2025 195   Drexel W 55-54 67%     13 - 9 9 - 1 -3.1 -2.0 -0.8
  Feb 06, 2025 318   @ Stony Brook W 68-61 73%    
  Feb 08, 2025 253   @ Monmouth W 67-64 60%    
  Feb 13, 2025 232   Delaware W 75-68 76%    
  Feb 15, 2025 253   Monmouth W 70-62 79%    
  Feb 20, 2025 175   @ Elon L 64-65 43%    
  Feb 22, 2025 178   @ Campbell L 62-63 44%    
  Feb 27, 2025 208   William & Mary W 74-69 71%    
  Mar 01, 2025 287   Hampton W 69-59 83%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 5.5 19.7 25.6 15.0 4.3 70.3 1st
2nd 0.0 2.2 9.1 6.6 1.1 19.0 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.2 2.9 0.2 6.5 3rd
4th 1.0 1.7 0.2 2.8 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 0.2 1.0 5th
6th 0.2 0.1 0.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.3 2.1 7.5 17.7 26.4 26.7 15.0 4.3 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 4.3    4.3
16-2 100.0% 15.0    14.3 0.7
15-3 95.9% 25.6    19.5 5.9 0.2
14-4 74.3% 19.7    8.6 8.7 2.2 0.2 0.0
13-5 31.1% 5.5    0.7 2.2 1.9 0.7 0.1
12-6 4.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 70.3% 70.3 47.4 17.4 4.4 0.9 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 4.3% 22.6% 22.6% 12.7 0.4 0.5 0.1 3.3
16-2 15.0% 19.8% 19.8% 13.6 0.1 1.1 1.6 0.2 12.0
15-3 26.7% 17.1% 17.1% 14.0 0.1 0.8 2.8 0.9 0.0 22.1
14-4 26.4% 16.0% 16.0% 14.3 0.4 2.2 1.6 0.1 22.2
13-5 17.7% 11.8% 11.8% 14.7 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.1 15.7
12-6 7.5% 10.9% 10.9% 15.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 6.7
11-7 2.1% 6.2% 6.2% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.0
10-8 0.3% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.0 0.3
9-9 0.0% 0.0 0.0
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 15.8% 15.8% 0.0% 14.1 0.6 2.8 7.5 4.6 0.4 84.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 12.7 38.5 55.2 6.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.2%