Troy
Sun Belt
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.3 152
Results Rating +1.2 143
Pace 65.6 257
Improvement -2.8 286

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 155 C C C C B+
Defense C 166 C C- C B- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 66 D+ 54% 279 +0.9 141
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 326 C 39% 158 -3.5 335
Three Pointers 45% 88 C- 33% 213 +1.8 123
Shot Selection/Accuracy B+ +1.4 25 C- -1.9 249
1st FG Attempt C 1.01 191
Second Chance B- 33.1% 98 D+ 0.96 282 C 0.32 158
Turnovers C 16.6% 163
Freethrows C 0.30 200 C+ 73% 164 C 0.22 183
Total Offense C +0.3 155

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 51% 140 B- 8.9% 68
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 25% 179 D 7.9% 328
Three Pointers D 78% 309 D+ 1.3% 293
Total C+ 57% 134 C+ 5.3% 152

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 233 B- 55% 97 -2.0 107
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 187 F 47% 362 +1.9 324
Three Pointers 43% 117 C 34% 185 +0.9 228
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.1 152 C- +0.7 215
1st FG Attempt C 1.03 199
Second Chance C- 31.5% 226 C- 1.05 222 C- 0.33 237
Turnovers C 16.8% 186
Freethrows B- 0.28 101 B- 71% 91 B- 0.20 90
Total Defense C +0.0 166

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 47% 156 C+ 11.8% 136
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 30% 272 F+ 0.5% 363
Three Pointers C- 86% 240 C- 0.6% 227
Total C 56% 193 D+ 4.7% 248

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.8 234 17.9 277
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 234 0.17 182
Improvement -2.1 #290 -0.7 #228

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 175 154 133
Results Rating Rank 169 150 105
Conference Record 11 - 7 12 - 6 12 - 6
Conference Finish 3 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 13
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23% 25% 11%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.3 13.7
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 82% 95% 7%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round23% 25% 11%
Second Round1% 1% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Louisiana (Home) - 84.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 22 - 03 - 1
Quad 34 - 77 - 8
Quad 411 - 419 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 144 @Kent St. W 103 - 97 OT 36% +8  89% 1 - 0 B +10 A- +10 A B- B- C -1 B F+ D
 Fri, Nov 7 175 @Furman W 64 - 61 43% +7  92% 2 - 0 B- +5 D- -8 C- D- F A+ +13 B C+ A+
 Fri, Nov 14 148 @Loyola Marymount L 63 - 74 38% -3  17% 2 - 1 D+ -7 F+ -8 C D+ F C+ +1 F+ A- D
 Sun, Nov 16 159 @Cal St. Northridge L 85 - 94 40% -4  14% 2 - 2 D+ -6 B+ +8 A- F A F -14 F+ F B
 Tue, Nov 18 45 @San Diego St. W 108 - 107 2OT 10% +3  70% 3 - 2 A- +15 A+ +19 B A A+ D+ -4 C- F A
 Thu, Nov 20 56 @USC L 106 - 107 3OT 12% -2  27% 3 - 3 B+ +12 B +6 C- A+ D B+ +6 B A+ F+
 Mon, Nov 24 161 Toledo L 68 - 75 52% -2  35% 3 - 4 D+ -7 F+ -9 F F C+ B- +2 B- D- C
 Wed, Nov 26 355 St. Francis (PA) W 74 - 64 92% -2  32% 4 - 4 D+ -5 F -13 F+ D+ F A- +7 C- B A+
 Mon, Dec 1 317 West Georgia L 89 - 93 2OT 88% +0  36% 4 - 5 F+ -17 F+ -9 C F F D -6 D+ C+ F
 Sun, Dec 14 121 @UAB W 86 - 85 30% +0  43% 5 - 5 B- +7 A+ +17 A B A F -11 F F B+
 Sat, Dec 20 176 Marshall W 70 - 63 66% +6  89% 6 - 5 1 - 0 C+ +3 F+ -10 F D+ D+ A+ +13 A+ B+ B
 Wed, Dec 31 237 Texas St. W 100 - 80 76% +8  83% 7 - 5 2 - 0 B+ +13 A+ +25 A+ A+ A+ F -12 D- F C
 Sat, Jan 3 182 South Alabama W 59 - 49 68% +5  80% 8 - 5 3 - 0 B- +6 D- -7 F+ D B A+ +14 A+ C A-
 Wed, Jan 7 143 @Arkansas St. L 74 - 86 36% -10  5% 8 - 6 3 - 1 D -8 D -5 C- F C+ C- -2 D- D- B-
 Sat, Jan 10 291 @Louisiana W 90 - 70 68% +16  99% 9 - 6 4 - 1 A- +15 A+ +23 B A+ D D -6 F A+ D+
 Wed, Jan 14 241 Southern Miss W 91 - 65 77% +12  81% 10 - 6 5 - 1 A +19 A +14 A C+ A+ B +5 B- D- A+
 Sat, Jan 17 143 Arkansas St. W 99 - 74 59% +9  83% 11 - 6 6 - 1 A +23 A+ +27 A+ A+ A C- -2 B+ D F
 Wed, Jan 21 242 @Old Dominion W 83 - 77 2OT 57% -1  24% 12 - 6 7 - 1 C+ +5 D -4 F B C- A- +8 B A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 24 266 @Georgia Southern W 83 - 78 63% +4  89% 13 - 6 8 - 1 C+ +2 A +13 C+ A+ D F -10 D- F D-
 Thu, Jan 29 201 James Madison L 64 - 73 71% -1  37% 13 - 7 8 - 2 D- -14 F -11 F F+ A- D+ -4 F+ D+ B
 Sat, Jan 31 173 Appalachian St. L 44 - 66 65% -9  6% 13 - 8 8 - 3 F -26 F -24 F F D+ D -6 F A A
 Wed, Feb 4 289 @Georgia St. W 74 - 63 68% +4  78% 14 - 8 9 - 3 B- +6 B +6 B D- A C+ +2 C D+ D-
 Sat, Feb 7 79 Akron W 79 - 69 34% +3  63% 15 - 8 A- +15 A- +10 B- C+ A+ B +5 B+ A+ F
 Wed, Feb 11 237 @Texas St. L 62 - 74 55% -9  0% 15 - 9 9 - 4 D- -13 D- -7 F C- F D- -8 F C B+
 Sat, Feb 14 241 @Southern Miss L 65 - 69 56% +0  41% 15 - 10 9 - 5 D+ -5 D -5 C C- F C -1 A+ F F+
 Wed, Feb 18 353 @Louisiana Monroe W 77 - 76 85% +0  42% 16 - 10 10 - 5 D -10 D -6 D- D- B- D+ -4 B- C- F
 Sat, Feb 21 182 @South Alabama L 54 - 65 45% -4  3% 16 - 11 10 - 6 D -9 F+ -9 F D B C- -2 C- C C-
 Tue, Feb 24 291 Louisiana W 72 - 61 85%
 Fri, Feb 27 353 Louisiana Monroe W 86 - 69 95%
Totals 18 - 11 12 - 6 +0 C +0 B- C- B+ C +0 C- C+ C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C D+ C C- C- 43% 24% 45% B+ C B- D+ C C C C+ C C B- F C C- 37% 20% 43% C C C- C- C- C B- B- B-
1.09 54% 39% 33% -2 +1 1.01 33% 1.0 .32 17% .30 73% .22 1.09 55% 47% 34% +1 0 1.03 31% 1.1 .33 17% .28 71% .21
Nov
3		 Kent St. A- C+ B- A+ A 50% 9% 41% A A F A+ B- B- A+ B A+ C A+ A- F B- 35% 23% 42% B B F C F+ D F C- F
1.20 59% 40% 46% +8 +2 1.22 21% 1.7 .34 14% .45 76% .34 1.13 36% 29% 42% -5 0 0.92 44% 1.0 .46 16% .46 76% .35
Nov
7		 Furman D- D A+ F+ D 35% 10% 55% B+ C- D- D D- F C- D+ C- A+ A+ A+ F B+ 41% 11% 48% D+ B C B- C+ A+ B+ C+ B
0.94 50% 60% 29% -5 +1 0.94 24% 0.9 .21 20% .24 69% .17 0.89 42% 20% 41% -4 +1 0.98 29% 0.9 .26 25% .23 67% .16
Nov
14		 Loyola Marymount F+ F A+ C D+ 40% 10% 50% A C C- D- D+ F A+ A- A+ C+ D- F D+ F 33% 33% 35% B+ F+ A C+ A- D A A+ A+
0.91 41% 50% 33% -6 +2 0.93 30% 0.9 .27 29% .41 80% .32 1.07 67% 56% 37% +10 -2 1.18 19% 1.0 .19 16% .19 45% .09
Nov
16		 Cal St. Northridge B+ B+ A+ C+ B+ 37% 9% 54% B+ A- D- F F A B- A+ A F D+ F D+ F+ 56% 9% 35% F F+ F F F B B- D C+
1.16 65% 60% 34% +5 +1 1.15 21% 0.7 .15 11% .34 86% .29 1.29 60% 60% 37% +5 +3 1.17 45% 1.3 .61 19% .27 69% .19
Nov
18		 San Diego St. A+ C A+ D+ B+ 31% 23% 45% C- B A- A A A+ A+ C+ A+ D+ D D+ F D 29% 38% 33% A C- F B- F A F A- F
1.21 55% 47% 31% -1 -1 0.98 36% 1.1 .40 15% .56 74% .42 1.19 67% 40% 41% +7 -3 1.10 45% 1.1 .48 22% .69 71% .49
Nov
20		 USC B D+ F D+ D+ 47% 16% 37% B+ C- A+ B+ A+ D A+ D A+ B+ B- F B B 37% 24% 39% C+ B A+ D A+ F+ F C- F
1.05 52% 27% 31% -7 +1 0.91 44% 1.0 .46 20% .43 71% .31 1.06 56% 50% 31% 0 0 1.01 16% 1.1 .18 13% .52 74% .39
Nov
24		 Toledo F+ C- A+ F F 48% 7% 45% A- F C F F C+ C A- C+ B- C+ C- C- C+ 36% 36% 28% A B- D D D- C C- C- C-
0.99 57% 75% 19% -8 +2 0.91 35% 0.6 .23 17% .25 79% .19 1.09 56% 44% 36% +2 -2 1.02 32% 1.1 .35 16% .29 76% .22
Nov
26		 St. Francis (PA) F D F F 57% 0% 43% A+ F+ B+ F D+ F A+ F A+ A- A+ F F D+ 30% 28% 41% B C- D- A+ B A+ D- F+ F+
1.01 58% 28% -4 +4 1.02 40% 0.9 .34 26% .55 63% .35 0.87 36% 46% 42% +1 -2 1.00 31% 0.6 .20 30% .31 75% .23
Dec
1		 West Georgia F+ D- A+ B C- 51% 7% 42% B+ C C F F F A F B- D B+ D+ D+ C- 42% 31% 28% D- D+ C- B+ C+ F C A+ A-
1.03 52% 75% 38% +2 +3 1.11 31% 0.6 .18 20% .42 62% .26 1.08 47% 41% 35% -3 -1 0.93 31% 0.9 .29 6% .27 50% .14
Dec
14		 UAB A+ F B A+ A 42% 9% 49% A- A C A B A B- C+ B- F D F F F 37% 26% 37% B- F C+ F F B+ A C+ A
1.27 45% 40% 50% +7 +2 1.19 27% 1.1 .30 12% .27 75% .20 1.25 65% 57% 40% +11 -1 1.22 31% 1.4 .45 15% .22 69% .16
Dec
20		 Marshall F+ F F D+ F 47% 4% 49% A+ F D+ D D+ D+ B+ A+ A A+ D- A- A+ A+ 25% 26% 49% B- A+ F+ A+ B+ B C A B-
1.00 42% 0% 32% -11 +3 0.86 32% 0.8 .27 19% .41 83% .33 0.90 69% 29% 19% -11 -2 0.77 37% 0.8 .28 20% .25 64% .16
Dec
31		 Texas St. A+ B+ F A+ A+ 65% 7% 28% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ F B- D+ F D- 40% 27% 33% C- D- F F F C B- A+ B+
1.47 67% 0% 69% +18 +4 1.46 45% 1.3 .59 12% .53 63% .33 1.18 52% 43% 41% +3 -1 1.06 41% 1.2 .50 19% .25 64% .16
Jan
3		 South Alabama D- F D D F+ 20% 6% 73% C+ F+ B F D B F F F A+ A B A+ A+ 43% 14% 43% D+ A+ F A+ C A- F C- F
1.01 40% 33% 31% -8 +1 0.88 37% 0.8 .29 15% .14 57% .08 0.84 44% 33% 17% -18 +1 0.69 31% 0.9 .28 17% .43 67% .29
Jan
7		 Arkansas St. D A+ F B- C 30% 26% 44% D C- D F F C+ D- F F C- A F F F+ 23% 19% 58% A D- C- F+ D- B- F C- F
0.98 76% 13% 36% 0 -1 1.00 23% 0.7 .15 15% .28 61% .17 1.14 45% 56% 39% +5 -1 1.10 38% 1.2 .44 21% .49 76% .37
Jan
10		 Louisiana A+ F+ F A+ B 43% 15% 43% C B A+ A+ A+ D F F F D F F+ F F 26% 23% 51% F+ F A- A+ A+ D+ C- F+ D+
1.41 50% 14% 55% +6 +1 1.17 58% 1.7 .97 20% .22 45% .10 1.10 75% 45% 42% +12 -1 1.23 20% 0.3 .07 16% .24 77% .19
Jan
14		 Southern Miss A B+ F A+ A 52% 7% 41% A A A- F+ C+ A+ F C+ D- B C F A+ B 41% 26% 33% D B- D- D+ D- A+ C+ A B+
1.29 64% 0% 50% +10 +3 1.28 36% 0.8 .30 11% .27 71% .19 0.92 58% 50% 13% -7 0 0.87 35% 1.1 .38 26% .34 67% .23
Jan
17		 Arkansas St. A+ A+ A+ B- A+ 43% 2% 55% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A B- A+ A+ C- A+ F D- A- 45% 12% 43% D B+ B F D F D- A+ B
1.48 77% 100% 36% +11 +3 1.29 41% 1.5 .59 10% .35 90% .32 1.11 32% 50% 38% -8 +2 0.90 34% 1.3 .44 13% .38 55% .21
Jan
21		 Old Dominion D F A+ F F 43% 18% 39% C+ F D+ A+ B C- A+ A+ A+ A- D+ D- A+ B 39% 31% 30% C+ B A A+ A+ D+ F+ C+ D-
1.02 38% 60% 18% -14 +1 0.75 29% 1.3 .38 16% .50 85% .42 0.94 63% 42% 17% -5 -1 0.90 17% 0.9 .14 15% .36 72% .26
Jan
24		 Georgia Southern A D+ B- C- 50% 0% 50% A C+ A+ B+ A+ D A+ C- A F D F B F+ 31% 8% 61% C D- C- F F D- B- D C+
1.30 55% 36% 0 +4 1.09 50% 1.2 .59 20% .47 75% .35 1.22 60% 100% 30% +2 +1 1.08 29% 1.8 .52 13% .31 76% .23
Jan
29		 James Madison F F F F F 44% 13% 43% B+ F F+ D- F+ A- D- D- F+ D+ D A- F F 46% 15% 40% D F+ C- C- D+ B F B+ D
0.97 46% 29% 26% -12 +1 0.81 22% 0.9 .20 9% .30 67% .20 1.11 64% 29% 42% +6 +1 1.17 30% 1.1 .33 20% .38 65% .25
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Appalachian St. F C D F F 37% 12% 51% B- F F+ F F D+ F A+ F D F D- D- F 15% 15% 70% A- F C A+ A A A+ F A-
0.75 56% 33% 16% -15 +1 0.73 22% 0.5 .11 15% .08 100% .08 1.12 86% 43% 36% +7 -1 1.15 30% 0.7 .20 20% .17 88% .15
Feb
4		 Georgia St. B A F D C+ 51% 4% 45% A+ B B+ F D- A F D- F C+ B+ D- A C 31% 35% 33% B- C C F+ D+ D- D- A+ C-
1.16 69% 0% 30% +2 +3 1.12 40% 0.6 .25 13% .21 67% .14 0.99 47% 41% 25% -7 -2 0.83 27% 1.2 .32 14% .35 68% .24
Feb
7		 Akron A- F F A+ B- 38% 16% 46% C+ B- D- A+ C+ A+ C+ A+ A- B F B+ A B+ 35% 17% 48% B- B+ A+ B+ A+ F B- A B
1.23 37% 25% 52% +2 +1 1.08 26% 1.3 .35 11% .30 88% .26 1.08 72% 33% 28% 0 0 1.02 24% 1.1 .26 11% .23 69% .16
Feb
11		 Texas St. D- F+ F+ D F 26% 18% 56% D- F B+ F C- F A+ B+ A+ D- F F A F 37% 44% 19% A+ F B D C B+ F F F
0.97 50% 29% 32% -6 -1 0.90 35% 0.7 .26 24% .53 77% .41 1.16 69% 63% 25% +13 -3 1.21 29% 1.0 .29 22% .38 84% .32
Feb
14		 Southern Miss D B+ A F D 54% 4% 41% A+ C A F C- F D F F C A+ F A+ A+ 57% 25% 18% F A+ F D F F+ A F+ B+
0.98 64% 50% 26% -1 +3 1.07 37% 0.7 .26 23% .31 56% .18 1.04 38% 54% 0% -16 +1 0.71 42% 1.1 .47 15% .29 81% .23
Feb
18		 Louisiana Monroe D D+ A+ D- F 42% 6% 52% B+ D- D- D+ D- B- A+ D- A+ D+ B+ F A+ B- 41% 20% 39% D+ B- C D C- F D+ D+ D
1.09 57% 67% 31% -1 +2 1.04 29% 1.1 .32 14% .43 65% .28 1.08 48% 73% 18% -7 0 0.89 24% 1.1 .27 6% .35 74% .26
Feb
21		 South Alabama F+ F F F F 17% 2% 80% C+ F B F D B A+ B A+ C- C B C+ C- 40% 6% 53% F+ C- D A- C C- B+ D B-
0.92 38% 0% 24% -16 +1 0.72 37% 0.8 .29 15% .46 78% .36 1.11 58% 33% 32% -2 +2 1.02 27% 1.0 .27 12% .25 69% .17



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1.3 80.5 81.8 1st
2nd 5.9 5.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 7.8 7.9 3rd
4th 0.2 3.6 3.8 4th
5th 0.4 0.4 5th
6th 0.3 0.3 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.9 18.6 80.5 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 100.0% 80.5    5.7 24.8 34.4 15.6
11-7 6.8% 1.3    0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 81.8% 81.8 5.7 24.8 34.4 15.7 0.5 0.6 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 80.5% 25.8% 25.8% 13.3 0.0 0.9 12.5 7.1 0.3 59.8
11-7 18.6% 10.6% 10.6% 13.7 0.0 0.7 1.1 0.1 16.6
10-8 0.9% 6.7% 6.7% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 22.8% 22.8% 0.0% 13.4 77.2 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 20.7% 100.0% 13.3 0.0 4.3 60.3 34.1 1.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 16.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 26.9%
Lose Out 0.3%