Troy
Sun Belt
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.2 #140
Expected Predictive Rating +1.7 #135
Pace 66.4 #246
Improvement -1.1 #235

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #133 C C+ C C B+
Defense #155 C- C- C+ B- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #52 1.08 #265 +1.3 #130
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #338 0.81 #97 -3.3 #329
Three Pointers 45% #109 1.03 #162 +2.3 #101
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #154 +0.3 #165
Freethrows 0.29 #222 73% #163 0.21 #204
Second Chance 33.4% #102 1.02 #194 0.34 #116
Turnovers 16.7% #175
Total Offense +1.1 #133

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #254 1.09 #93 +2.6 #94
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #190 0.90 #352 -1.5 #301
Three Pointers 44% #95 1.08 #269 -2.7 #300
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #228 -1.6 #230
Freethrows 0.28 #117 70% #62 0.20 #93
Second Chance 31.7% #227 1.04 #211 0.33 #233
Turnovers 17.3% #142
Total Defense +0.1 #155

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.9% #24 -0.2% #143
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.8% #206 3.1% #242
Possession Length 17.5 #207 17.6 #250
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #177 0.17 #187
Improvement +0.1 #168 -1.2 #250

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 33.9% 36.5% 28.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.4 13.7
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 76.3% 85.1% 59.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round33.9% 36.5% 28.7%
Second Round1.6% 1.8% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgia St. (Away) - 65.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 21 - 12 - 2
Quad 35 - 57 - 7
Quad 412 - 420 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 145 @Kent St. W 103 - 97 OT 40% +8  1 - 0 +10 +13 A+ B- B- -4 B- F+ D-
 Fri, Nov 7 164 @Furman W 64 - 61 44% +7  2 - 0 +6 -6 C- F F +12 B C+ A
 Fri, Nov 14 170 @Loyola Marymount L 63 - 74 46% -3  2 - 1 -9 -5 C D+ F -3 F A- D
 Sun, Nov 16 187 @Cal St. Northridge L 85 - 94 51% -4  2 - 2 -8 +10 B+ F A -17 F+ F C+
 Tue, Nov 18 43 @San Diego St. W 108 - 107 2OT 11% +3  3 - 2 +16 +22 B- A+ A+ -6 C F A
 Thu, Nov 20 48 @USC L 106 - 107 3OT 12% -2  3 - 3 +13 +9 C A+ D+ +5 B A+ D-
 Mon, Nov 24 159 Toledo L 68 - 75 55% -2  3 - 4 -7 -6 F D- C+ -1 B- D C
 Wed, Nov 26 357 St. Francis (PA) W 74 - 64 92% -2  4 - 4 -4 -9 F+ C- F +4 D+ B A+
 Mon, Dec 1 325 West Georgia L 89 - 93 2OT 90% +0  4 - 5 -17 -8 C F F -9 C- C+ F
 Sun, Dec 14 120 @UAB W 86 - 85 33% +0  5 - 5 +7 +19 A B- A -12 F F+ B
 Sat, Dec 20 153 Marshall W 70 - 63 66% +6  6 - 5 1 - 0 +4 -4 D- C- D+ +8 A+ B+ B-
 Wed, Dec 31 259 Texas St. W 100 - 80 82% +8  7 - 5 2 - 0 +11 +28 A+ A+ A+ -16 D- F C
 Sat, Jan 3 194 South Alabama W 59 - 49 74% +5  8 - 5 3 - 0 +5 -3 D- D B- +10 A+ C B
 Wed, Jan 7 168 @Arkansas St. L 74 - 86 46% -10  8 - 6 3 - 1 -10 -4 D+ F+ C -5 D- D B-
 Sat, Jan 10 303 @Louisiana W 90 - 70 73% +16  9 - 6 4 - 1 +15 +26 B A+ D -9 F A+ C-
 Wed, Jan 14 250 Southern Miss W 91 - 65 81% +12  10 - 6 5 - 1 +18 +16 A+ C A+ +2 C+ D- A+
 Sat, Jan 17 168 Arkansas St. W 99 - 74 68% +9  11 - 6 6 - 1 +21 +28 A+ A+ A- -6 B D F
 Wed, Jan 21 243 @Old Dominion W 83 - 77 2OT 61% -1  12 - 6 7 - 1 +4 -1 F B- C- +5 B- A D+
 Sat, Jan 24 260 @Georgia Southern W 83 - 78 64% +4  13 - 6 8 - 1 +2 +16 C A+ D+ -13 F+ F D-
 Thu, Jan 29 205 James Madison L 64 - 73 75% -1  13 - 7 8 - 2 -15 -10 F F+ B+ -6 F+ C- B-
 Sat, Jan 31 172 Appalachian St. L 44 - 66 69% -9  13 - 8 8 - 3 -26 -20 F F C- -10 F A- A-
 Wed, Feb 4 268 @Georgia St. W 75 - 71 66%
 Sat, Feb 7 61 Akron L 77 - 82 32%
 Wed, Feb 11 259 @Texas St. W 73 - 69 64%
 Sat, Feb 14 250 @Southern Miss W 74 - 71 62%
 Wed, Feb 18 360 @Louisiana Monroe W 83 - 70 89%
 Sat, Feb 21 194 @South Alabama W 69 - 68 53%
 Tue, Feb 24 303 Louisiana W 72 - 60 88%
 Fri, Feb 27 360 Louisiana Monroe W 86 - 67 96%
Totals 18 - 11 13 - 5 +1 +1 C C+ C +0 C- C- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.4 7.7 26.6 29.5 12.1 76.3 1st
2nd 0.0 2.1 8.6 4.7 0.1 15.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.7 2.1 0.1 5.1 3rd
4th 0.3 1.5 0.1 1.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.7 5th
6th 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.3 6.9 18.5 31.4 29.6 12.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 12.1    12.1
14-4 99.5% 29.5    25.4 4.1 0.0
13-5 84.6% 26.6    14.0 10.9 1.7 0.0
12-6 41.4% 7.7    0.9 2.8 2.8 1.0 0.2 0.0
11-7 5.9% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 76.3% 76.3 52.4 17.7 4.6 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 12.1% 44.5% 44.5% 12.9 0.1 1.6 2.8 0.8 0.1 6.7
14-4 29.6% 39.2% 39.2% 13.4 0.9 6.1 4.3 0.4 18.0
13-5 31.4% 35.0% 35.0% 13.6 0.4 4.1 5.6 0.9 20.4
12-6 18.5% 25.1% 25.1% 13.9 0.0 1.3 2.6 0.8 0.0 13.8
11-7 6.9% 16.1% 16.1% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 5.8
10-8 1.3% 5.1% 5.1% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2
9-9 0.2% 12.1% 12.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
8-10 0.0% 0.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 33.9% 33.9% 0.0% 13.5 66.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.1% 100.0% 12.4 2.2 60.7 36.7 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.3%