Troy
Sun Belt
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.8#119
Expected Predictive Rating+1.7#142
Pace68.3#199
Improvement+0.6#148

Offense
Total Offense+0.4#160
First Shot-2.4#243
After Offensive Rebound+2.8#35
Layup/Dunks+4.5#36
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#356
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#318
Freethrows+1.6#87
Improvement+1.5#78

Defense
Total Defense+2.4#110
First Shot-0.2#175
After Offensive Rebounds+2.6#22
Layups/Dunks-2.6#286
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#53
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#300
Freethrows+3.8#9
Improvement-0.9#258
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.4% 21.5% 15.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.0 13.4
.500 or above 94.8% 98.0% 91.3%
.500 or above in Conference 94.0% 97.7% 90.0%
Conference Champion 24.9% 34.5% 14.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round18.4% 21.5% 15.0%
Second Round2.2% 2.9% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Appalachian St. (Away) - 51.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 34 - 35 - 8
Quad 414 - 219 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 208   Toledo W 84-74 78%     1 - 0 +4.7 -0.1 +4.1
  Nov 09, 2024 343   @ New Orleans W 78-61 86%     2 - 0 +8.4 -5.3 +12.3
  Nov 13, 2024 31   @ Arkansas L 49-65 12%     2 - 1 -0.1 -14.6 +14.1
  Nov 17, 2024 23   @ Oregon L 61-82 9%     2 - 2 -3.5 -6.6 +4.2
  Nov 19, 2024 341   @ West Georgia W 84-65 85%     3 - 2 +10.7 +15.6 -3.1
  Nov 25, 2024 226   Texas San Antonio W 86-72 81%     4 - 2 +7.5 +7.2 +0.1
  Nov 29, 2024 195   Merrimack L 68-72 76%     4 - 3 -8.7 +2.1 -11.3
  Dec 01, 2024 230   Eastern Kentucky W 84-74 81%     5 - 3 +3.4 +6.7 -3.2
  Dec 10, 2024 5   @ Houston L 42-62 4%     5 - 4 +2.7 -7.0 +4.2
  Dec 21, 2024 272   Georgia St. W 77-57 86%     6 - 4 1 - 0 +11.1 +5.0 +7.3
  Jan 02, 2025 175   @ Appalachian St. W 66-65 52%    
  Jan 04, 2025 199   @ Marshall W 74-72 56%    
  Jan 09, 2025 126   Texas St. W 71-67 64%    
  Jan 11, 2025 105   Arkansas St. W 73-72 55%    
  Jan 15, 2025 334   @ Louisiana Monroe W 74-64 83%    
  Jan 18, 2025 156   @ South Alabama L 67-68 49%    
  Jan 23, 2025 282   Southern Miss W 76-64 87%    
  Jan 25, 2025 156   South Alabama W 70-64 70%    
  Jan 30, 2025 242   Georgia Southern W 79-69 83%    
  Feb 01, 2025 334   Louisiana Monroe W 77-61 93%    
  Feb 05, 2025 135   @ James Madison L 70-72 44%    
  Feb 12, 2025 286   @ Louisiana W 74-68 72%    
  Feb 15, 2025 105   @ Arkansas St. L 70-75 34%    
  Feb 20, 2025 286   Louisiana W 77-65 87%    
  Feb 22, 2025 277   Coastal Carolina W 73-61 86%    
  Feb 25, 2025 126   @ Texas St. L 68-70 42%    
  Feb 28, 2025 282   @ Southern Miss W 73-67 72%    
Projected Record 17 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.4 6.6 8.0 5.2 2.0 0.4 24.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 3.2 8.1 6.4 1.8 0.2 19.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.3 6.9 5.2 1.0 0.0 15.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 5.2 4.7 0.8 0.0 12.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.4 4.4 1.0 0.0 9.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 3.7 1.2 0.0 6.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.4 1.3 0.1 0.0 4.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.3 0.1 3.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.2 1.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.7 3.4 6.3 10.0 13.5 16.1 16.5 13.9 9.8 5.3 2.0 0.4 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 100.0% 2.0    2.0 0.0
16-2 97.1% 5.2    4.6 0.6 0.0
15-3 81.4% 8.0    5.3 2.5 0.2 0.0
14-4 47.3% 6.6    2.6 3.0 0.9 0.1
13-5 14.7% 2.4    0.4 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 24.9% 24.9 15.3 7.0 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 40.9% 40.4% 0.5% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8%
17-1 2.0% 43.5% 43.5% 11.9 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.1
16-2 5.3% 37.2% 37.2% 12.3 0.1 1.2 0.6 0.1 3.4
15-3 9.8% 31.0% 31.0% 12.7 0.0 1.1 1.6 0.3 0.0 6.8
14-4 13.9% 25.8% 25.8% 13.0 0.0 0.7 2.0 0.8 0.0 10.3
13-5 16.5% 20.9% 20.9% 13.4 0.3 1.6 1.3 0.2 13.1
12-6 16.1% 15.8% 15.8% 13.7 0.1 0.9 1.3 0.3 0.0 13.6
11-7 13.5% 11.4% 11.4% 13.9 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.0 11.9
10-8 10.0% 7.2% 7.2% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 9.3
9-9 6.3% 4.7% 4.7% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 6.0
8-10 3.4% 2.9% 2.9% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.3
7-11 1.7% 3.5% 3.5% 15.6 0.0 0.0 1.6
6-12 0.6% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.6
5-13 0.2% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 18.4% 18.4% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 4.2 7.3 5.1 1.3 0.1 81.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 10.8 1.2 1.2 1.2 8.5 15.9 47.6 23.2 1.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 2.3% 11.0 2.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%