Troy
Sun Belt
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.5 #137
Expected Predictive Rating +2.9 #123
Pace 68.4 #209
Improvement +0.1 #175

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #159 C C- C B A-
Defense #122 C C- C B- B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #48 1.08 #270 +1.5 #125
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #331 0.77 #150 -3.2 #328
Three Pointers 44% #137 1.04 #144 +1.9 #121
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #166 +0.2 #176
Freethrows 20.2 #55 71% #235 14.3 #84
Second Chance 31.5% #155 0.97 #266 0.30 #212
Turnovers 16.9% #202
Total Offense +0.2 #159

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #278 1.02 #39 +4.4 #53
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #113 0.88 #330 -2.2 #327
Three Pointers 42% #141 1.07 #259 -1.9 #261
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #163 +0.3 #163
Freethrows 16.8 #167 68% #37 11.5 #253
Second Chance 33.2% #275 1.03 #175 0.34 #231
Turnovers 17.3% #141
Total Defense +1.3 #122

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.0% #26 -1.0% #90
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.0% #210 0.4% #187
Possession Length 17.4 #185 17.3 #199
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #169 0.15 #109
Improvement -0.1 #194 +0.2 #170

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.8% 27.0% 18.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 13.1 13.4
.500 or above 96.9% 98.5% 92.0%
.500 or above in Conference 98.2% 99.2% 95.2%
Conference Champion 35.9% 41.0% 20.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round24.8% 27.0% 18.0%
Second Round1.5% 1.8% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana (Away) - 75.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 22 - 23 - 3
Quad 35 - 58 - 8
Quad 411 - 319 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 138 @Kent St. W 103 - 97 OT 39%  +8  1 - 0 +10 +12 A+ B- A- -3 A F D
 Fri, Nov 7 150 @Furman W 64 - 61 43%  +7  2 - 0 +6 -6 C- F F +12 A- C+ A+
 Fri, Nov 14 122 @Loyola Marymount L 63 - 74 35%  -3  2 - 1 -6 -4 C+ D+ F -1 F A+ D+
 Sun, Nov 16 211 @Cal St. Northridge L 85 - 94 55%  -4  2 - 2 -9 +8 A- F A+ -17 F F B-
 Tue, Nov 18 52 @San Diego St. W 108 - 107 2OT 14%  +3  3 - 2 +14 +18 C A+ A+ -4 B F A+
 Thu, Nov 20 46 @USC L 106 - 107 3OT 12%  -2  3 - 3 +13 +8 D+ A+ D +6 A A+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 180 Toledo L 68 - 75 61%  -2  3 - 4 -8 -7 F F B- -2 C+ D- C+
 Wed, Nov 26 361 St. Francis (PA) W 74 - 64 94%  -2  4 - 4 -6 -9 F D+ F +3 D- B A+
 Mon, Dec 1 297 West Georgia L 89 - 93 2OT 87%  +0  4 - 5 -15 -6 B- F F -8 D+ B- F
 Sun, Dec 14 113 @UAB W 86 - 85 31%  +0  5 - 5 +8 +19 A+ A+ A+ -11 F F B+
 Sat, Dec 20 159 Marshall W 70 - 63 68%  +6  6 - 5 1 - 0 +4 -5 F C F +8 A+ A B
 Wed, Dec 31 268 Texas St. W 100 - 80 84%  +8  7 - 5 2 - 0 +11 +27 A+ A+ A+ -15 F F C
 Sat, Jan 3 200 South Alabama W 59 - 49 75%  +5  8 - 5 3 - 0 +5 -4 F F B- +10 A+ C B+
 Wed, Jan 7 126 @Arkansas St. L 74 - 86 37%  -10  8 - 6 3 - 1 -7 -2 D F C -4 F C B+
 Sat, Jan 10 310 @Louisiana W 69 - 62 75% 
 Wed, Jan 14 201 Southern Miss W 76 - 69 74% 
 Sat, Jan 17 126 Arkansas St. W 80 - 77 60% 
 Wed, Jan 21 250 @Old Dominion W 76 - 73 62% 
 Sat, Jan 24 213 @Georgia Southern W 79 - 78 55% 
 Thu, Jan 29 204 James Madison W 76 - 69 74% 
 Sat, Jan 31 224 Appalachian St. W 70 - 62 77% 
 Wed, Feb 4 304 @Georgia St. W 75 - 69 72% 
 Sat, Feb 7 64 Akron L 78 - 82 34% 
 Wed, Feb 11 268 @Texas St. W 73 - 68 67% 
 Sat, Feb 14 201 @Southern Miss W 73 - 72 54% 
 Wed, Feb 18 356 @Louisiana Monroe W 84 - 72 87% 
 Sat, Feb 21 200 @South Alabama W 68 - 67 53% 
 Tue, Feb 24 310 Louisiana W 72 - 59 89% 
 Fri, Feb 27 356 Louisiana Monroe W 87 - 69 95% 
Totals 18 - 11 13 - 5 +1 +0 C C- C +1 C C- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 4.3 10.6 11.7 6.9 1.8 35.9 1st
2nd 0.3 4.1 9.5 7.7 2.1 0.1 23.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.3 7.4 4.8 0.8 0.0 15.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 4.6 4.1 0.6 0.0 10.0 4th
5th 0.1 2.2 3.2 0.7 0.0 6.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.4 0.7 0.0 3.8 6th
7th 0.2 1.2 1.0 0.1 2.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.1 1.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.9 6.4 11.2 16.8 19.2 19.2 13.8 7.0 1.8 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 1.8    1.8 0.0
16-2 98.5% 6.9    6.2 0.7 0.0
15-3 84.6% 11.7    8.0 3.4 0.3
14-4 55.4% 10.6    4.4 4.7 1.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 22.7% 4.3    0.8 1.8 1.3 0.4 0.0
12-6 3.2% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 35.9% 35.9 21.2 10.7 3.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 1.8% 49.9% 49.9% 11.8 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.9
16-2 7.0% 45.1% 45.1% 12.5 0.1 1.4 1.5 0.1 0.0 3.8
15-3 13.8% 39.6% 39.6% 12.9 0.0 1.5 3.1 0.8 0.0 8.4
14-4 19.2% 33.1% 33.1% 13.2 0.8 3.8 1.6 0.1 12.8
13-5 19.2% 23.8% 23.8% 13.4 0.3 2.2 1.8 0.2 14.6
12-6 16.8% 15.9% 15.9% 13.6 0.1 1.0 1.2 0.3 0.0 14.1
11-7 11.2% 9.8% 9.8% 13.8 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 10.1
10-8 6.4% 6.5% 6.5% 14.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 6.0
9-9 2.9% 3.8% 3.8% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.8
8-10 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 14.7 0.0 0.0 1.3
7-11 0.4% 0.4
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 24.8% 24.8% 0.0% 13.1 75.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 11.5 55.2 43.7 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%