Tulane
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.2 162
Results Rating +2.2 127
Pace 67.0 229
Improvement +3.9 51

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 176 C- D B A C
Defense C 158 C C- C+ C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 232 C+ 60% 126 -0.4 196
2 Pt. Jumpers 32% 239 D+ 35% 275 -1.4 253
Three Pointers 45% 104 D+ 31% 286 +0.2 172
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.1 179 C- -1.7 235
1st FG Attempt C- 0.99 223
Second Chance F+ 21.8% 351 B 1.13 51 D 0.25 317
Turnovers B 14.7% 56
Freethrows A- 0.37 15 B+ 77% 30 A 0.29 7
Total Offense C -0.5 176

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D+ 43% 265 B- 9.2% 86
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 36% 46 C+ 4.8% 168
Three Pointers B- 87% 114 C+ 0.6% 118
Total C+ 57% 149 B 4.5% 64

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 231 B- 55% 105 -1.9 111
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 203 C 38% 191 +0.1 192
Three Pointers 43% 99 C- 35% 235 +2.1 280
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 171 C -0.3 171
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 168
Second Chance D 34.1% 319 B- 0.98 101 C- 0.33 241
Turnovers C+ 17.9% 118
Freethrows C- 0.32 238 B 70% 55 C 0.22 212
Total Defense C +0.3 158

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 52% 268 B 15.3% 49
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 37% 333 B+ 8.3% 38
Three Pointers D+ 88% 289 C+ 1.1% 116
Total D 62% 320 B 7.8% 41

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.9 125 18.2 312
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 278 0.17 163
Improvement -1.8 #275 +5.7 #8

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 199 163 132
Results Rating Rank 173 135 108
Conference Record 8 - 10 9 - 9 11 - 7
Conference Finish 10 6 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 2% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.2 13.5
.500 or above 96% 100% 93%
.500 or above in Conference 75% 94% 65%
Conference Champion 0% 1% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round2% 2% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: North Texas (Away) - 33.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 23 - 43 - 6
Quad 35 - 78 - 13
Quad 410 - 218 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 190 Samford W 85 - 72 67% +6  76% 1 - 0 B +8 A +12 A+ F C+ C- -3 C F B+
 Sat, Nov 8 237 Texas St. W 79 - 71 74% -6  13% 2 - 0 C +1 B- +5 C F B- D+ -4 C F D
 Tue, Nov 11 291 @Louisiana W 66 - 62 66% +3  73% 3 - 0 C -1 D+ -4 F+ C B B- +3 B F F
 Fri, Nov 14 206 New Orleans L 63 - 85 69% -11  0% 3 - 1 F -27 F -12 F F A+ F -17 F F B
 Fri, Nov 21 28 Utah St. L 75 - 96 9% -6  30% 3 - 2 D+ -6 B +7 A D+ B F -13 F C C-
 Sun, Nov 23 139 Boston College W 93 - 90 OT 44% +1  54% 4 - 2 C+ +4 A +11 B- A+ A D- -7 C D+ D
 Fri, Nov 28 256 Nicholls St. W 82 - 72 78% +7  89% 5 - 2 C+ +2 C+ +3 B F A- C -1 F B+ C
 Tue, Dec 2 296 Grambling St. W 65 - 63 84% +0  48% 6 - 2 D -9 D+ -3 F D A+ D -5 C- F B+
 Sat, Dec 6 79 Akron L 71 - 88 32% -8  11% 6 - 3 D- -12 D -6 F F+ A+ D- -7 D F+ A-
 Sat, Dec 13 134 UC San Diego L 67 - 93 42% -16  8% 6 - 4 F -24 F -12 F+ F D- F+ -9 D- D+ C-
 Wed, Dec 17 215 Louisiana Tech W 61 - 53 71% +6  93% 7 - 4 C+ +2 C- -1 F B- A+ B +5 A+ B B+
 Sat, Dec 20 150 Portland St. W 63 - 61 59% +3  79% 8 - 4 C -1 D -5 F D F B +4 A- D C+
 Wed, Dec 31 246 @East Carolina W 79 - 70 56% +1  53% 9 - 4 1 - 0 B- +7 A- +9 B- A D+ C- -2 C- B F
 Sun, Jan 4 116 Florida Atlantic W 69 - 66 49% -1  28% 10 - 4 2 - 0 C+ +3 D -5 D C+ C+ A- +8 A- D A+
 Sat, Jan 10 334 @Texas San Antonio W 85 - 52 78% +19  92% 11 - 4 3 - 0 A+ +25 B+ +8 B- C C+ A+ +18 A- B+ A+
 Wed, Jan 14 121 UAB L 69 - 82 50% -4  13% 11 - 5 3 - 1 D- -13 D -5 F+ B B F+ -8 C- F B
 Sun, Jan 18 137 North Texas L 63 - 71 55% -6  6% 11 - 6 3 - 2 D -10 D -6 F D- A+ D+ -4 D B A
 Wed, Jan 21 116 @Florida Atlantic L 74 - 79 28% -6  5% 11 - 7 3 - 3 C +1 C +1 D+ C+ D+ C -0 F+ A- D
 Fri, Jan 23 174 @Charlotte L 70 - 73 41% -5  19% 11 - 8 3 - 4 C -1 D -5 C- F B- B +4 D- D A+
 Wed, Jan 28 58 South Florida L 83 - 97 26% -11  6% 11 - 9 3 - 5 D+ -8 B- +4 A+ F A F -10 B- F D
 Sun, Feb 1 101 @Memphis W 78 - 76 22% +5  88% 12 - 9 4 - 5 B +10 A- +11 A+ D- B- C -1 A B- D-
 Sun, Feb 8 97 Wichita St. L 61 - 75 39% -6  12% 12 - 10 4 - 6 D- -11 F -14 F+ F D B- +3 D A+ A+
 Wed, Feb 11 156 Temple W 77 - 66 61% +6  69% 13 - 10 5 - 6 B- +8 C +1 C+ A F+ A- +7 A+ B+ D+
 Sun, Feb 15 121 @UAB W 55 - 54 28% +5  78% 14 - 10 6 - 6 B- +7 F -10 D- F C+ A+ +17 A A+ C+
 Wed, Feb 18 137 @North Texas L 63 - 68 33%
 Thu, Feb 19 137 @North Texas W 77 - 71 33% -3  20% 15 - 10 7 - 6 B +10 A +14 B- B- A+ C- -3 B+ F C+
 Sun, Feb 22 232 Rice W 76 - 69 74%
 Wed, Feb 25 76 Tulsa L 75 - 80 33%
 Sun, Mar 1 58 @South Florida L 71 - 84 12%
 Thu, Mar 5 156 @Temple L 70 - 73 38%
 Sun, Mar 8 101 Memphis L 71 - 73 42%
Totals 17 - 14 9 - 10 +0 C -1 A+ C- C C +0 D+ B+ A



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C+ D+ D+ C- 37% 32% 45% C C- F+ B D B A- B+ A C B- C C- C 37% 20% 43% C C D B- C- C+ C- B C
1.08 60% 35% 31% -2 0 0.99 22% 1.1 .25 15% .37 77% .29 1.08 55% 38% 35% 0 0 1.02 34% 1.0 .33 18% .32 70% .26
Nov
3		 Samford A A- A+ A+ A+ 29% 29% 41% C- A+ F D- F C+ F+ A+ C- C- B A- F D+ 25% 27% 48% A- C F D+ F B+ B A+ A
1.31 67% 60% 52% +20 -2 1.39 9% 1.0 .09 12% .23 92% .21 1.11 54% 29% 40% +1 -2 1.00 37% 1.1 .41 17% .31 59% .18
Nov
8		 Texas St. B- C+ F A+ C 41% 14% 45% C+ C F F F B- A+ A+ A+ D+ A B+ F C+ 46% 25% 29% D- C C F F D B F C+
1.18 61% 0% 45% +4 +1 1.11 19% 0.0 .00 16% .54 100% .54 1.06 45% 33% 43% -3 0 0.96 32% 1.3 .41 16% .23 85% .20
Nov
11		 Louisiana D+ A+ F F F 54% 17% 29% B- F+ F A+ C B A+ B+ A+ B- F C+ A B 13% 31% 56% B- B D- F F F F A+ D
1.03 73% 0% 17% -6 +2 0.93 19% 1.8 .35 16% .50 78% .39 0.97 67% 36% 28% -5 -3 0.87 31% 1.1 .33 13% .38 52% .20
Nov
14		 New Orleans F A A F F 36% 13% 51% C+ F F F F A+ A+ D+ A+ F A+ F F F 29% 17% 55% C- F D+ F F B F B F
0.96 69% 50% 9% -14 +1 0.76 21% 0.8 .15 8% .56 71% .40 1.29 42% 57% 57% +17 0 1.36 38% 1.3 .50 21% .54 71% .39
Nov
21		 Utah St. B F F+ A+ A+ 20% 22% 57% D A F A+ D+ B B- C+ B- F F F F F 34% 24% 42% A+ F C C- C C- C+ B+ B-
1.09 30% 27% 50% +6 -2 1.10 16% 1.6 .25 19% .34 74% .25 1.40 76% 67% 52% +25 -1 1.50 36% 1.2 .44 15% .31 67% .20
Nov
23		 Boston College A A D- F C+ 48% 24% 28% C+ B- D- A+ A+ A A+ A- A+ D- A- D+ D C 33% 24% 43% C C B F D+ D F F F
1.18 69% 31% 20% -2 0 0.98 21% 2.1 .45 10% .51 72% .37 1.15 47% 43% 36% -1 -1 0.98 27% 1.3 .34 13% .52 78% .41
Nov
28		 Nicholls St. C+ B+ B B B 42% 15% 44% C+ B F F F A- A F B- C A- F F F 40% 19% 42% C F C+ A+ B+ C F A+ C
1.19 70% 43% 38% +8 +1 1.21 24% 0.9 .21 17% .44 68% .30 1.04 47% 67% 45% +8 0 1.19 24% 0.8 .18 16% .45 42% .19
Dec
2		 Grambling St. D+ D- F C- F 38% 22% 40% D F C- F+ D A+ B B- B D F F+ A+ C- 26% 17% 57% C+ C- D- F F B+ F B- F+
1.05 53% 20% 33% -6 0 0.89 31% 0.9 .29 11% .38 76% .29 1.02 73% 43% 25% -3 0 0.95 32% 1.3 .43 24% .43 70% .30
Dec
6		 Akron D C A+ F F 25% 19% 56% D F F C F+ A+ A- C A- D- B- F F D- 32% 12% 56% C D F C+ F+ A- D C D
1.00 57% 55% 22% -7 -1 0.86 22% 1.0 .22 11% .35 73% .25 1.24 56% 50% 43% +8 +1 1.20 42% 1.2 .52 20% .30 76% .23
Dec
13		 UC San Diego F C+ C- F F+ 42% 25% 33% C- F+ F F+ F D- A C- A- F+ D+ A+ F D 53% 5% 42% F D- F A+ D+ C- B- C C+
0.86 58% 36% 16% -10 0 0.82 20% 0.9 .17 19% .35 68% .24 1.19 63% 0% 40% +4 +3 1.17 40% 0.8 .30 15% .24 69% .17
Dec
17		 Louisiana Tech C- C A+ F F 28% 13% 59% C F D+ A B- A+ A+ A- A+ B A D A+ A+ 51% 16% 33% F A+ F A+ B B+ F F F
1.04 55% 80% 13% -14 0 0.74 29% 1.3 .38 12% .60 77% .46 0.90 43% 43% 13% -17 +2 0.71 46% 0.5 .22 22% .39 78% .31
Dec
20		 Portland St. D F A+ F F 50% 18% 32% B F B+ F D F A+ A A+ B A+ F A+ A 40% 21% 38% B- A- D+ D- D C+ C A B-
0.96 45% 50% 14% -14 +1 0.77 36% 0.6 .22 23% .59 83% .50 0.93 42% 60% 22% -9 0 0.85 32% 1.1 .35 20% .31 63% .19
Dec
31		 East Carolina A- D- D A+ B+ 28% 28% 44% D- B- A- B A D+ A+ F A+ C- D A+ C- C- 43% 24% 33% D+ C- D+ A B F C+ A- B
1.20 50% 33% 47% +5 -2 1.09 38% 1.2 .47 18% .50 67% .33 1.06 61% 15% 33% -5 0 0.93 35% 0.8 .28 12% .33 63% .21
Jan
4		 Florida Atlantic D D+ F C+ D 39% 19% 43% C- D D A+ C+ C+ D A C- A- B+ F A+ B+ 28% 26% 46% A A- F B D A+ C+ A+ B+
0.99 52% 10% 35% -7 0 0.89 22% 1.4 .30 16% .26 80% .20 0.95 50% 62% 22% -5 -1 0.90 41% 1.0 .41 26% .29 60% .17
Jan
10		 Texas San Antonio B+ D F A B 22% 12% 66% D+ B- F+ A+ C C+ F A+ F A+ C A+ B+ A- 33% 27% 40% B+ A- B+ B B+ A+ F A+ D
1.24 54% 29% 41% +5 0 1.12 28% 1.4 .39 15% .12 86% .10 0.76 53% 8% 28% -13 -1 0.73 26% 0.8 .21 23% .36 58% .21
Jan
14		 UAB D D+ A- F F 40% 13% 47% B+ F+ D A+ B B A- C A- F+ B- A F C- 55% 28% 17% C- C- F F F B C+ F F
0.99 55% 43% 23% -9 +1 0.87 21% 1.5 .32 14% .32 74% .23 1.17 55% 27% 44% -2 0 0.98 44% 1.2 .53 14% .30 94% .28
Jan
18		 North Texas D F F B- F 25% 23% 52% D F F B D- A+ A+ B+ A+ D+ A- C F D 47% 13% 40% D+ D F A+ B A F F F
0.94 36% 10% 35% -11 -1 0.77 21% 1.1 .24 16% .59 76% .44 1.06 48% 33% 39% -3 +2 1.00 44% 0.6 .28 22% .52 81% .42
Jan
21		 Florida Atlantic C D- D+ B- D+ 45% 26% 30% D D+ F+ A+ C+ D+ A+ A+ A+ C B- F F F+ 51% 15% 34% F+ F+ A+ F A- D F A+ F
1.04 48% 33% 36% -5 0 0.91 19% 1.5 .29 18% .46 85% .39 1.11 54% 57% 44% +6 +2 1.17 20% 1.3 .27 15% .48 59% .28
Jan
23		 Charlotte D B A+ F C- 36% 23% 40% C- C- F A+ F B- A A+ A+ B F A+ C D- 45% 9% 45% D- D- D D+ D A+ D+ C- D+
1.03 65% 55% 21% -2 -1 0.98 7% 2.0 .14 13% .41 83% .34 1.07 80% 0% 35% +7 +2 1.20 37% 1.0 .37 25% .35 72% .26
Jan
28		 South Florida B- A C A A+ 29% 14% 57% B- A+ F F F A B+ D+ B F D+ B A C+ 44% 12% 44% B- B- D- F F D F B- F
1.10 69% 38% 41% +9 0 1.20 21% 0.1 .03 15% .37 67% .25 1.28 61% 33% 26% -5 +2 0.96 44% 1.6 .69 13% .53 71% .38
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
1		 Memphis A- C A+ A A 41% 9% 50% A A+ F A+ D- B- A+ B+ A+ C C+ D A+ A+ 35% 26% 39% B- A F+ A+ B- D- F F F
1.13 58% 50% 39% +5 +2 1.15 14% 1.5 .21 19% .46 77% .36 1.10 56% 42% 17% -10 -1 0.80 43% 0.9 .38 16% .65 84% .55
Feb
8		 Wichita St. F B+ F F F 45% 20% 35% A- F+ F F F D A+ A+ A+ B- D+ F B D 42% 16% 42% D D B A+ A+ A+ C- A+ B+
0.84 64% 10% 18% -12 0 0.80 16% 0.7 .11 19% .41 83% .34 1.03 61% 56% 30% +2 +1 1.07 36% 0.6 .21 21% .33 53% .17
Feb
11		 Temple C B A+ F C 49% 13% 38% A- C+ C- A+ A F+ A+ D- A+ A- A C+ A+ A+ 40% 16% 44% D- A+ C+ A+ B+ D+ F C+ F+
1.13 63% 60% 27% +1 +2 1.08 27% 1.6 .43 19% .73 68% .49 0.97 45% 38% 23% -13 +1 0.78 29% 0.8 .21 12% .45 74% .33
Feb
15		 UAB F F D- C F+ 39% 14% 47% B D- F+ F F C+ F A+ F A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 46% 19% 35% D- A D- A+ A+ C+ C A+ B
0.88 45% 29% 33% -7 +1 0.90 19% 0.6 .11 16% .09 100% .09 0.86 50% 22% 24% -12 +1 0.79 37% 0.4 .15 13% .31 59% .18
Feb
19		 North Texas A A+ F B- B 38% 21% 42% C+ B- C A- B- A+ A- C B+ C- A+ F A+ B 45% 33% 21% A+ B+ F+ F F C+ F D+ F
1.17 72% 10% 35% 0 0 1.02 32% 1.2 .38 15% .43 71% .31 1.08 42% 43% 22% -9 -1 0.81 41% 1.3 .54 18% .54 72% .39



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.2 0.4 1st
2nd 0.6 1.8 0.1 2.4 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.9 0.9 5.1 3rd
4th 0.0 6.7 7.0 0.1 13.9 4th
5th 1.2 14.1 1.0 16.3 5th
6th 0.0 8.7 5.3 14.0 6th
7th 0.2 15.4 0.3 16.0 7th
8th 3.7 6.2 0.0 9.9 8th
9th 0.1 10.9 0.6 11.6 9th
10th 2.8 5.7 8.5 10th
11th 1.9 0.1 2.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
Total 4.8 20.6 32.1 26.7 12.5 3.0 0.3 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 66.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0
12-6 5.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.3% 8.7% 8.7% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-6 3.0% 5.7% 5.7% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.8
11-7 12.5% 3.9% 3.9% 13.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 12.0
10-8 26.7% 1.8% 1.8% 13.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 26.2
9-9 32.1% 0.9% 0.9% 13.7 0.1 0.2 0.0 31.8
8-10 20.6% 0.6% 0.6% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 20.5
7-11 4.8% 0.3% 0.3% 14.8 0.0 0.0 4.8
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 13.3 98.4 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%
Lose Out 3.0%