Tulsa
American Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.5#238
Expected Predictive Rating-7.4#287
Pace67.2#212
Improvement+3.4#49

Offense
Total Offense-3.2#258
First Shot-2.8#258
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#213
Layup/Dunks-3.4#297
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#207
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#155
Freethrows+0.6#140
Improvement+0.6#153

Defense
Total Defense-1.3#213
First Shot+2.3#102
After Offensive Rebounds-3.6#357
Layups/Dunks+0.7#143
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#291
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#71
Freethrows+0.1#175
Improvement+2.8#40
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 n/a 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 1.5% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 1.5% 7.0% 1.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 24.1% 6.2% 24.7%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Memphis (Away) - 3.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 33 - 103 - 15
Quad 47 - 610 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 363   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 103-80 93%     1 - 0 +1.7 +9.2 -9.3
  Nov 13, 2024 315   Oral Roberts W 85-76 75%     2 - 0 -2.5 +4.5 -6.8
  Nov 16, 2024 223   @ Missouri St. L 106-111 3OT 36%     2 - 1 -5.9 -1.3 -3.0
  Nov 20, 2024 227   Arkansas Little Rock L 57-71 56%     2 - 2 -20.0 -8.0 -13.5
  Nov 23, 2024 128   @ Loyola Chicago L 53-89 20%     2 - 3 -31.6 -17.9 -12.5
  Nov 26, 2024 323   Detroit Mercy W 63-44 70%     3 - 3 +9.0 -6.1 +16.9
  Nov 27, 2024 278   Georgia St. L 71-74 58%     3 - 4 -9.5 -7.1 -2.4
  Dec 04, 2024 102   Oklahoma St. L 55-76 26%     3 - 5 -18.9 -18.2 +0.3
  Dec 07, 2024 224   Southern L 66-70 56%     3 - 6 -9.9 -1.7 -8.6
  Dec 14, 2024 62   Central Florida L 75-88 11%     3 - 7 -4.1 +7.4 -11.7
  Dec 21, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 93-48 97%     4 - 7 +17.4 +7.6 +9.4
  Jan 01, 2025 192   Rice L 64-70 48%     4 - 8 0 - 1 -10.0 -5.8 -4.7
  Jan 04, 2025 96   @ UAB L 51-83 13%     4 - 9 0 - 2 -24.6 -23.3 -0.5
  Jan 07, 2025 202   @ Texas San Antonio W 82-77 32%     5 - 9 1 - 2 +5.4 +8.8 -3.3
  Jan 12, 2025 221   Charlotte W 69-63 55%     6 - 9 2 - 2 +0.2 +3.9 -2.7
  Jan 18, 2025 177   @ South Florida L 56-63 28%     6 - 10 2 - 3 -5.3 -13.8 +8.3
  Jan 21, 2025 150   East Carolina L 76-85 OT 39%     6 - 11 2 - 4 -10.7 +1.6 -12.1
  Jan 26, 2025 134   Wichita St. W 84-77 36%     7 - 11 3 - 4 +6.1 +17.6 -11.0
  Jan 29, 2025 96   UAB L 68-78 25%     7 - 12 3 - 5 -7.6 -4.7 -3.3
  Feb 02, 2025 141   @ Tulane L 56-59 22%     7 - 13 3 - 6 +0.7 -9.4 +9.8
  Feb 05, 2025 41   @ Memphis L 64-83 3%    
  Feb 08, 2025 106   Florida Atlantic L 73-79 29%    
  Feb 12, 2025 125   @ Temple L 70-79 18%    
  Feb 15, 2025 202   Texas San Antonio W 77-76 52%    
  Feb 19, 2025 70   @ North Texas L 54-69 8%    
  Feb 22, 2025 192   @ Rice L 67-72 29%    
  Mar 01, 2025 141   Tulane L 68-71 40%    
  Mar 04, 2025 125   Temple L 73-77 36%    
  Mar 09, 2025 134   @ Wichita St. L 68-77 20%    
Projected Record 9 - 20 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.1 6th
7th 0.5 2.0 0.4 0.0 2.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 4.3 2.1 0.1 7.4 8th
9th 0.8 6.1 6.1 0.6 0.0 13.5 9th
10th 0.4 6.6 10.8 2.1 0.0 19.9 10th
11th 0.1 4.8 13.6 4.8 0.2 23.6 11th
12th 3.0 11.3 6.7 0.5 21.3 12th
13th 4.5 4.7 0.6 0.0 9.8 13th
Total 7.6 21.2 28.3 23.1 13.1 5.3 1.3 0.3 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0% 0.0
10-8 0.3% 0.3
9-9 1.3% 1.3
8-10 5.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.3
7-11 13.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.0
6-12 23.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 23.0
5-13 28.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 28.2
4-14 21.2% 21.2
3-15 7.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.6
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 4.9%