Tulsa
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.1 #81
Expected Predictive Rating +9.7 #64
Pace 68.3 #213
Improvement -0.6 #217

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #48 A- B+ A- B+ A+
Defense #154 C+ C C B- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #43 1.16 #177 +3.5 #73
2 Pt. Jumpers 8% #360 0.76 #171 -4.7 #356
Three Pointers 48% #58 1.21 #9 +8.0 #10
1st FG Attempt 1.15 #30 +6.8 #30
Freethrows 18.6 #118 81% #4 15.1 #44
Second Chance 32.0% #145 1.27 #8 0.41 #40
Turnovers 14.0% #40
Total Offense +7.0 #48

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #204 1.18 #201 +0.0 #185
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #166 0.53 #4 +2.1 #46
Three Pointers 41% #178 1.05 #238 -0.9 #214
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #144 +1.2 #142
Freethrows 15.7 #105 73% #204 11.5 #255
Second Chance 26.2% #42 1.25 #350 0.33 #198
Turnovers 16.6% #187
Total Defense +0.2 #154

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 4.2% #7 -0.2% #154
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 8.7% #57 -2.1% #142
Possession Length 16.6 #123 17.7 #257
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #128 0.14 #61
Improvement -0.8 #245 +0.2 #166

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.5% 22.8% 16.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 0.9% 0.2%
Average Seed 11.6 11.5 11.8
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
.500 or above in Conference 92.9% 96.4% 86.9%
Conference Champion 26.7% 34.6% 13.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
First Round20.3% 22.5% 16.4%
Second Round4.4% 5.1% 3.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.0% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Florida (Home) - 63.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 23 - 43 - 4
Quad 310 - 313 - 8
Quad 410 - 023 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 141 Rhode Island W 82 - 65 72%  +9  1 - 0 +18 +17 A- A+ C+ +2 B- C- A+
 Wed, Nov 12 298 @Oral Roberts W 88 - 87 86%  -2  2 - 0 -4 +10 C- B- C+ -14 F D+ F
 Mon, Nov 17 74 @Kansas St. L 83 - 84 36%  -3  2 - 1 +10 +9 C- C+ A+ +1 A+ F F
 Fri, Nov 21 186 Austin Peay W 84 - 75 86%  -2  3 - 1 +4 +14 A+ D+ A- -9 F C+ D
 Tue, Nov 25 221 San Jose St. W 81 - 51 83%  +13  4 - 1 +27 +17 A A+ A+ +14 A+ B+ A-
 Wed, Nov 26 96 Northern Iowa W 63 - 60 57%  +3  5 - 1 +8 +4 B+ D+ A- +5 A+ D C-
 Sat, Dec 6 192 Missouri St. W 98 - 74 87%  +14  6 - 1 +19 +27 A+ C+ A+ -7 F B+ A+
 Wed, Dec 10 327 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 117 - 84 96%  +16  7 - 1 +20 +25 A+ A+ B- -9 F D C+
 Sat, Dec 13 136 New Mexico St. W 83 - 70 71%  +13  8 - 1 +14 +10 A+ A+ F +4 A+ A- C
 Fri, Dec 19 155 @Western Kentucky W 82 - 81 66%  -3  9 - 1 +4 +10 B- C- A+ -6 D+ C D-
 Mon, Dec 22 264 Denver W 90 - 85 93%  +4  10 - 1 -4 -1 F C B -3 A- F A+
 Wed, Dec 31 245 Rice W 97 - 48 91%  +16  11 - 1 1 - 0 +41 +28 A+ A- B- +17 A+ A+ C+
 Sun, Jan 4 133 @North Texas L 67 - 72 59%  +0  11 - 2 1 - 1 -0 +10 C A+ C+ -11 D F F
 Sat, Jan 10 89 South Florida W 84 - 80 64% 
 Wed, Jan 14 166 @Charlotte W 77 - 72 68% 
 Sun, Jan 18 113 @UAB W 80 - 79 51% 
 Wed, Jan 21 78 Memphis W 77 - 75 59% 
 Sun, Jan 25 245 @Rice W 79 - 70 80% 
 Wed, Jan 28 133 North Texas W 72 - 64 79% 
 Sun, Feb 1 104 Wichita St. W 77 - 72 69% 
 Wed, Feb 4 106 @Florida Atlantic L 78 - 79 49% 
 Sun, Feb 8 89 @South Florida L 81 - 83 41% 
 Wed, Feb 11 113 UAB W 82 - 76 72% 
 Sat, Feb 14 104 @Wichita St. L 74 - 75 48% 
 Wed, Feb 18 166 Charlotte W 80 - 69 84% 
 Sun, Feb 22 315 Texas San Antonio W 86 - 67 96% 
 Wed, Feb 25 176 @Tulane W 79 - 74 69% 
 Thu, Mar 5 266 @East Carolina W 80 - 70 82% 
 Sun, Mar 8 143 Temple W 82 - 73 80% 
Totals 22 - 7 12 - 6 +7 +7 A- B+ A- +0 C+ C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.3 5.8 9.0 6.8 3.2 0.7 26.7 1st
2nd 0.9 6.9 8.7 3.7 0.7 0.0 21.0 2nd
3rd 0.3 4.3 7.5 2.1 0.2 14.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.9 6.6 2.2 0.1 10.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 4.5 3.0 0.1 0.0 8.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 3.7 0.5 0.0 6.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.1 1.1 0.0 4.8 7th
8th 0.2 1.7 1.5 0.1 3.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 1.4 0.3 2.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.9 4.1 7.1 11.5 15.3 18.0 16.7 12.9 7.5 3.3 0.7 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7 0.0
16-2 98.6% 3.2    3.0 0.2
15-3 90.5% 6.8    5.4 1.3 0.1
14-4 70.0% 9.0    4.9 3.5 0.6 0.0
13-5 34.4% 5.8    1.4 2.5 1.5 0.3 0.0
12-6 7.0% 1.3    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 26.7% 26.7 15.5 7.9 2.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.7% 61.7% 47.4% 14.3% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 27.1%
16-2 3.3% 41.8% 36.4% 5.4% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.2 1.9 8.5%
15-3 7.5% 36.7% 34.9% 1.8% 11.3 0.1 1.9 0.8 0.0 4.7 2.8%
14-4 12.9% 29.1% 28.6% 0.5% 11.5 0.0 1.8 1.9 0.1 9.1 0.7%
13-5 16.7% 25.5% 25.3% 0.1% 11.7 1.6 2.6 0.1 12.5 0.2%
12-6 18.0% 20.1% 20.0% 0.1% 11.9 0.7 2.7 0.2 14.4 0.1%
11-7 15.3% 15.8% 15.8% 12.1 0.2 1.9 0.3 0.0 12.9
10-8 11.5% 10.2% 10.2% 12.2 0.1 0.8 0.3 0.0 10.4
9-9 7.1% 6.7% 6.7% 12.3 0.3 0.2 6.6
8-10 4.1% 4.8% 4.8% 12.8 0.0 0.2 0.0 3.9
7-11 1.9% 4.5% 4.5% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8
6-12 0.7% 5.5% 5.5% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 20.5% 20.0% 0.5% 11.6 79.5 0.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 8.3 4.8 3.2 14.3 15.9 12.7 12.7 19.0 17.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 31.0% 10.4 3.4 10.3 17.2