Tulsa
American Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.4#239
Expected Predictive Rating-10.3#325
Pace70.9#121
Improvement+0.6#147

Offense
Total Offense-2.5#240
First Shot-1.9#229
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#224
Layup/Dunks-2.5#275
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#222
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#150
Freethrows+0.5#145
Improvement-0.9#248

Defense
Total Defense-1.9#224
First Shot+1.9#115
After Offensive Rebounds-3.8#359
Layups/Dunks+0.9#137
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#286
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#81
Freethrows-0.1#197
Improvement+1.5#69
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.7 15.2
.500 or above 3.8% 6.3% 1.4%
.500 or above in Conference 13.6% 20.6% 6.6%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 31.2% 20.2% 42.2%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rice (Home) - 50.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 50 - 6
Quad 33 - 93 - 15
Quad 47 - 510 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 363   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 103-80 92%     1 - 0 +2.6 +9.3 -8.4
  Nov 13, 2024 284   Oral Roberts W 85-76 70%     2 - 0 -0.7 +7.1 -7.6
  Nov 16, 2024 171   @ Missouri St. L 106-111 3OT 26%     2 - 1 -2.6 +0.7 -1.7
  Nov 20, 2024 244   Arkansas Little Rock L 57-71 62%     2 - 2 -21.6 -9.8 -13.3
  Nov 23, 2024 121   @ Loyola Chicago L 53-89 17%     2 - 3 -30.4 -17.2 -12.0
  Nov 26, 2024 321   Detroit Mercy W 63-44 67%     3 - 3 +10.0 -7.7 +19.4
  Nov 27, 2024 272   Georgia St. L 71-74 56%     3 - 4 -8.9 -4.2 -4.7
  Dec 04, 2024 96   Oklahoma St. L 55-76 26%     3 - 5 -18.7 -19.0 +1.4
  Dec 07, 2024 240   Southern L 66-70 62%     3 - 6 -11.4 -3.4 -8.3
  Dec 14, 2024 81   Central Florida L 75-88 14%     3 - 7 -5.8 +8.3 -14.4
  Dec 21, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 93-48 96%     4 - 7 +19.5 +9.4 +9.7
  Jan 01, 2025 186   Rice L 69-70 50%    
  Jan 04, 2025 127   @ UAB L 74-83 19%    
  Jan 07, 2025 226   @ Texas San Antonio L 76-80 36%    
  Jan 11, 2025 193   Charlotte W 72-71 51%    
  Jan 18, 2025 169   @ South Florida L 71-78 27%    
  Jan 21, 2025 182   East Carolina L 69-70 49%    
  Jan 26, 2025 101   Wichita St. L 72-78 29%    
  Jan 29, 2025 127   UAB L 77-80 38%    
  Feb 02, 2025 202   @ Tulane L 71-76 31%    
  Feb 05, 2025 44   @ Memphis L 68-87 4%    
  Feb 08, 2025 88   Florida Atlantic L 76-84 24%    
  Feb 12, 2025 124   @ Temple L 68-78 19%    
  Feb 15, 2025 226   Texas San Antonio W 79-77 58%    
  Feb 19, 2025 85   @ North Texas L 57-71 10%    
  Feb 22, 2025 186   @ Rice L 67-73 29%    
  Mar 01, 2025 202   Tulane W 74-73 52%    
  Mar 04, 2025 124   Temple L 71-75 37%    
  Mar 09, 2025 101   @ Wichita St. L 69-81 14%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 1.7 0.4 0.0 3.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.4 2.7 0.8 0.1 4.9 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 3.6 1.8 0.2 0.0 6.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.7 3.4 0.4 0.0 8.0 8th
9th 0.3 3.1 5.2 1.2 0.0 9.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 2.6 6.3 2.6 0.1 11.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 2.4 6.6 4.6 0.4 0.0 14.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 3.1 6.8 5.5 1.1 0.0 17.0 12th
13th 0.5 2.1 4.9 6.9 4.4 1.1 0.0 19.9 13th
Total 0.5 2.2 5.5 10.2 13.8 15.9 15.5 13.0 9.8 6.5 3.9 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 33.3% 0.0    0.0
15-3 50.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 40.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 12.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.1% 4.0% 4.0% 13.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.3% 4.2% 4.2% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-6 0.9% 3.6% 3.6% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
11-7 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9
10-8 3.9% 0.9% 0.9% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.9
9-9 6.5% 0.5% 0.5% 15.2 0.0 0.0 6.4
8-10 9.8% 0.3% 0.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 9.8
7-11 13.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.0
6-12 15.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.5
5-13 15.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.9
4-14 13.8% 13.8
3-15 10.2% 10.2
2-16 5.5% 5.5
1-17 2.2% 2.2
0-18 0.5% 0.5
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%