Tulsa
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +8.1 #69
Expected Predictive Rating +10.1 #60
Pace 69.8 #154
Improvement +1.2 #139

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #29 B+ B+ B A- A-
Defense #182 C C C- C+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #27 1.15 #177 +4.0 #57
2 Pt. Jumpers 9% #353 0.83 #75 -4.1 #349
Three Pointers 46% #80 1.19 #13 +6.4 #19
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #34 +6.2 #33
Freethrows 0.34 #58 81% #3 0.28 #13
Second Chance 32.3% #134 1.30 #2 0.42 #26
Turnovers 14.4% #50
Total Offense +8.6 #29

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #196 1.17 #196 -0.1 #180
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #182 0.65 #33 +1.2 #98
Three Pointers 41% #170 1.05 #231 -0.9 #229
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #176 +0.2 #171
Freethrows 0.27 #90 73% #244 0.20 #113
Second Chance 26.1% #43 1.16 #327 0.30 #148
Turnovers 16.0% #222
Total Defense -0.5 #182

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 4.0% #9 0.0% #172
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 7.7% #65 -0.3% #183
Possession Length 16.4 #95 17.7 #263
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #136 0.13 #62
Improvement +1.3 #113 -0.1 #195

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29.8% 32.3% 26.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.7% 2.6% 0.7%
Average Seed 11.3 11.2 11.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 69.1% 81.8% 53.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.2% 1.7% 0.5%
First Round29.1% 31.4% 26.3%
Second Round6.3% 7.5% 4.9%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.3% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida Atlantic (Away) - 55.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 23 - 33 - 4
Quad 311 - 214 - 6
Quad 411 - 025 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 119 Rhode Island W 82 - 65 69% +9  1 - 0 +20 +18 B A+ C+ +3 B- D+ A+
 Wed, Nov 12 335 @Oral Roberts W 88 - 87 93% -2  2 - 0 -7 +8 D+ B- D+ -16 F D F+
 Mon, Nov 17 92 @Kansas St. L 83 - 84 47% -3  2 - 1 +8 +9 C- C- A+ -0 A F D-
 Fri, Nov 21 175 Austin Peay W 84 - 75 87% -2  3 - 1 +5 +13 A+ C- B -8 F B- D-
 Tue, Nov 25 242 San Jose St. W 81 - 51 88% +13  4 - 1 +25 +15 B+ A+ A- +14 A+ B- B+
 Wed, Nov 26 110 Northern Iowa W 63 - 60 67% +3  5 - 1 +7 +4 B D+ C+ +3 A C- C
 Sat, Dec 6 182 Missouri St. W 98 - 74 88% +14  6 - 1 +19 +27 A+ C A+ -7 F A- B+
 Wed, Dec 10 331 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 117 - 84 97% +16  7 - 1 +19 +26 A+ A+ B- -10 F D C+
 Sat, Dec 13 167 New Mexico St. W 83 - 70 80% +13  8 - 1 +12 +9 A+ A+ F +4 B+ B+ C
 Fri, Dec 19 156 @Western Kentucky W 82 - 81 69% -3  9 - 1 +4 +11 B C- A+ -8 D+ D+ D-
 Mon, Dec 22 288 Denver W 90 - 85 95% +4  10 - 1 -5 -2 F+ B- B- -4 B F A
 Wed, Dec 31 233 Rice W 97 - 48 91% +16  11 - 1 1 - 0 +42 +27 A+ B B- +19 A+ A+ C
 Sun, Jan 4 147 @North Texas L 67 - 72 66% +0  11 - 2 1 - 1 -1 +10 D+ A+ B- -11 D F+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 70 South Florida L 78 - 93 62% -8  11 - 3 1 - 2 -10 +3 C F B- -13 F C C-
 Wed, Jan 14 157 @Charlotte W 86 - 74 69% +8  12 - 3 2 - 2 +15 +16 A+ D+ D -0 C- A+ F
 Sun, Jan 18 120 @UAB W 99 - 77 59% +10  13 - 3 3 - 2 +28 +27 A+ C+ B +1 C A+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 96 Memphis W 83 - 66 71% +3  14 - 3 4 - 2 +19 +20 C A+ A+ +0 A- C+ B
 Sat, Jan 24 233 @Rice W 87 - 81 81% +13  15 - 3 5 - 2 +5 +17 C A+ B- -11 F D- C+
 Wed, Jan 28 147 North Texas W 82 - 66 83% +4  16 - 3 6 - 2 +14 +12 B A+ B+ +1 C+ A C
 Sun, Feb 1 99 Wichita St. W 93 - 83 73% +6  17 - 3 7 - 2 +12 +18 A+ A+ C+ -6 A- C- D-
 Wed, Feb 4 109 @Florida Atlantic W 83 - 81 55%
 Sun, Feb 8 70 @South Florida L 84 - 87 39%
 Wed, Feb 11 120 UAB W 86 - 78 79%
 Sat, Feb 14 99 @Wichita St. W 78 - 77 51%
 Wed, Feb 18 157 Charlotte W 83 - 72 85%
 Sun, Feb 22 342 Texas San Antonio W 92 - 69 98%
 Wed, Feb 25 171 @Tulane W 82 - 76 71%
 Thu, Mar 5 247 @East Carolina W 83 - 73 83%
 Sun, Mar 8 143 Temple W 83 - 73 83%
Totals 23 - 6 13 - 5 +8 +9 B+ B+ B +0 C C C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 2.5 16.8 27.1 17.8 4.9 69.1 1st
2nd 0.5 7.5 8.2 1.4 17.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.8 4.4 0.4 0.0 6.7 3rd
4th 0.2 2.5 0.7 3.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.0 1.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 0.2 0.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.6 6.3 15.2 25.4 28.5 17.8 4.9 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 4.9    4.9
15-3 100.0% 17.8    17.3 0.5
14-4 95.0% 27.1    20.5 6.3 0.3
13-5 66.1% 16.8    4.9 8.6 3.0 0.3 0.0
12-6 16.8% 2.5    0.1 0.5 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.1
11-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 69.1% 69.1 47.6 15.9 4.2 1.0 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 4.9% 47.2% 38.9% 8.3% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 1.2 0.0 2.6 13.6%
15-3 17.8% 38.6% 36.1% 2.5% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 5.1 1.4 0.0 10.9 3.8%
14-4 28.5% 32.3% 31.3% 1.1% 11.4 0.1 5.8 3.4 0.0 19.3 1.5%
13-5 25.4% 27.2% 26.8% 0.4% 11.6 0.0 2.7 4.1 0.1 18.5 0.5%
12-6 15.2% 22.3% 22.2% 0.1% 11.8 0.9 2.4 0.1 11.8 0.1%
11-7 6.3% 14.5% 14.5% 11.9 0.2 0.7 0.1 5.4
10-8 1.6% 12.6% 12.6% 12.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.4
9-9 0.3% 8.1% 8.1% 12.0 0.0 0.3
8-10 0.1% 0.1
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 29.8% 28.6% 1.2% 11.3 70.2 1.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.9% 100.0% 9.9 2.4 4.7 7.6 18.2 20.0 46.1 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.0% 15.6% 10.7 1.0 2.1 12.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.0% 15.3% 10.9 1.9 12.4 1.0