UAB
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +2.8 #120
Expected Predictive Rating +2.9 #116
Pace 72.6 #78
Improvement -2.2 #280

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #127 D+ C+ A+ C C-
Defense #134 C B+ C B- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #30 1.19 #125 +4.8 #38
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #59 0.73 #215 +1.8 #86
Three Pointers 28% #362 0.81 #362 -9.7 #363
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #263 -3.1 #269
Freethrows 0.31 #153 72% #217 0.22 #167
Second Chance 33.0% #114 1.04 #159 0.34 #111
Turnovers 11.7% #1
Total Offense +1.6 #127

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #231 1.20 #248 +0.1 #171
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #172 0.64 #19 +1.1 #107
Three Pointers 43% #126 1.02 #197 -1.0 #232
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #166 +0.3 #170
Freethrows 0.26 #54 75% #311 0.19 #82
Second Chance 26.1% #41 0.94 #68 0.25 #35
Turnovers 16.3% #205
Total Defense +1.2 #134

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.7% #237 -0.2% #142
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.9% #263 -0.5% #177
Possession Length 16.1 #69 17.5 #231
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #56 0.17 #186
Improvement -1.2 #255 -1.0 #243

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.9% 7.4% 4.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.3 12.3 12.4
.500 or above 97.4% 99.5% 95.1%
.500 or above in Conference 85.3% 94.3% 75.8%
Conference Champion 2.9% 4.9% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round5.9% 7.4% 4.3%
Second Round0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Memphis (Home) - 51.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 21 - 32 - 5
Quad 37 - 59 - 11
Quad 410 - 219 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 365 Mississippi Valley W 106 - 55 99% +29  1 - 0 +24 +5 D- B A+ +10 A+ B A+
 Fri, Nov 7 23 @North Carolina St. L 70 - 94 7% -11  1 - 1 -5 +1 D- B B+ -4 D F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 322 Alabama St. L 74 - 77 92% -4  1 - 2 -16 -9 F D B -7 D B+ D-
 Fri, Nov 14 98 High Point W 91 - 74 53% +3  2 - 2 +19 +6 B- F+ A+ +11 A A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 194 South Alabama W 80 - 72 78% +5  3 - 2 +3 +14 B+ C A- -11 D- A F
 Mon, Nov 24 137 Southern Illinois W 81 - 73 56% +5  4 - 2 +9 +12 C A+ A+ -3 C+ A F
 Tue, Nov 25 257 UTEP W 75 - 59 79% +7  5 - 2 +11 +9 F A- A+ +3 D+ A+ B+
 Mon, Dec 1 154 @Middle Tennessee L 61 - 76 49% -4  5 - 3 -12 -5 F A+ C- -8 B- F C-
 Fri, Dec 5 162 @Drake W 74 - 69 50% +2  6 - 3 +8 +4 D- A- C- +4 A- B- D
 Sun, Dec 14 140 Troy L 85 - 86 67% -0  6 - 4 -3 +13 A A- B+ -16 F B- F
 Wed, Dec 17 306 Cleveland St. W 101 - 77 90% +7  7 - 4 +13 +13 B+ C- A+ -1 D- A+ C-
 Sun, Dec 21 209 UNC Asheville W 72 - 47 80% +13  8 - 4 +19 +3 D+ D+ A+ +18 A A+ B-
 Wed, Dec 31 99 Wichita St. L 70 - 75 54% +6  8 - 5 0 - 1 -3 +3 D+ C+ A+ -7 D+ C- B
 Sun, Jan 4 70 @South Florida W 109 - 106 2OT 22% -3  9 - 5 1 - 1 +14 +11 C- F+ A+ +3 D+ A+ C-
 Wed, Jan 7 109 Florida Atlantic L 71 - 76 59% -7  9 - 6 1 - 2 -4 -5 F C+ B- +1 A+ B- D+
 Sun, Jan 11 247 @East Carolina W 87 - 85 OT 68% +2  10 - 6 2 - 2 +0 +2 F+ C A+ -2 D+ C+ B
 Wed, Jan 14 171 @Tulane W 82 - 69 53% +4  11 - 6 3 - 2 +15 +10 D+ A+ B+ +5 B+ D- C
 Sun, Jan 18 69 Tulsa L 77 - 99 41% -10  11 - 7 3 - 3 -17 +1 C- D- A+ -17 F A+ C-
 Thu, Jan 22 70 South Florida L 69 - 82 41% -8  11 - 8 3 - 4 -8 -8 F B+ A+ +1 C B- A
 Wed, Jan 28 342 @Texas San Antonio W 83 - 73 86% +1  12 - 8 4 - 4 +1 +6 C D A+ -5 C+ D F
 Sat, Jan 31 147 @North Texas W 72 - 68 46% +0  13 - 8 5 - 4 +8 +10 A C A- -2 C+ A+ F
 Thu, Feb 5 96 Memphis W 76 - 75 51%
 Sun, Feb 8 233 Rice W 81 - 71 82%
 Wed, Feb 11 69 @Tulsa L 78 - 86 21%
 Sun, Feb 15 171 Tulane W 79 - 72 73%
 Wed, Feb 18 143 @Temple L 75 - 76 46%
 Sun, Feb 22 96 @Memphis L 72 - 78 31%
 Sun, Mar 1 147 North Texas W 70 - 65 69%
 Wed, Mar 4 157 @Charlotte L 74 - 75 51%
 Sun, Mar 8 247 East Carolina W 80 - 69 84%
Totals 18 - 12 10 - 8 +3 +2 D+ C+ A+ +1 C B+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 1.7 0.5 2.9 1st
2nd 0.8 4.6 2.2 0.1 7.7 2nd
3rd 0.2 6.4 5.6 0.4 12.5 3rd
4th 0.0 2.6 10.2 0.9 13.7 4th
5th 0.4 8.3 4.9 0.0 13.6 5th
6th 0.0 3.1 10.2 0.7 14.0 6th
7th 0.6 8.2 4.1 0.0 12.9 7th
8th 0.2 4.4 6.9 0.5 12.0 8th
9th 0.0 1.1 4.5 1.2 6.8 9th
10th 0.2 1.8 0.9 2.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.8 11th
12th 0.1 0.1 0.1 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.1 0.7 3.5 10.4 19.8 25.8 23.0 11.8 4.3 0.5 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 88.0% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0
13-5 39.7% 1.7    0.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 6.1% 0.7    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.9% 2.9 0.6 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.5% 21.3% 21.3% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4
13-5 4.3% 13.7% 13.7% 11.9 0.1 0.5 0.0 3.8
12-6 11.8% 12.7% 12.7% 12.1 0.2 1.0 0.3 10.3
11-7 23.0% 7.9% 7.9% 12.3 0.0 1.2 0.6 0.0 21.2
10-8 25.8% 4.5% 4.5% 12.5 0.0 0.6 0.5 0.1 24.7
9-9 19.8% 2.3% 2.3% 12.7 0.2 0.2 0.1 19.3
8-10 10.4% 1.7% 1.7% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 10.3
7-11 3.5% 0.9% 0.9% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4
6-12 0.7% 2.8% 2.8% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.7
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 12.3 94.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.0 8.7 82.6 8.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%