UAB
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +3.7 #113
Expected Predictive Rating +1.9 #142
Pace 72.8 #81
Improvement +0.8 #132

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #115 D C+ A+ C C
Defense #114 C+ A C C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #27 1.19 #134 +5.0 #37
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #75 0.67 #283 +1.0 #124
Three Pointers 28% #361 0.80 #357 -9.6 #363
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #273 -3.5 #272
Freethrows 18.7 #114 70% #263 13.1 #151
Second Chance 33.4% #105 1.06 #172 0.35 #116
Turnovers 12.1% #3
Total Offense +2.1 #115

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #237 1.20 #231 +0.4 #165
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #196 0.56 #7 +2.0 #48
Three Pointers 44% #112 1.01 #181 -1.2 #229
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #140 +1.2 #144
Freethrows 15.6 #97 78% #351 12.1 #200
Second Chance 25.0% #23 0.92 #41 0.23 #17
Turnovers 16.3% #199
Total Defense +1.6 #114

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.3% #215 -0.1% #160
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.5% #281 -2.3% #140
Possession Length 15.8 #58 17.3 #198
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 #51 0.18 #186
Improvement +0.6 #143 +0.2 #169

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.2% 8.0% 4.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.4 12.3 12.7
.500 or above 89.8% 93.5% 79.3%
.500 or above in Conference 72.9% 79.3% 54.9%
Conference Champion 6.1% 7.6% 1.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.1% 1.4%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round7.2% 8.0% 4.9%
Second Round0.9% 1.1% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: East Carolina (Away) - 73.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 33 - 5
Quad 37 - 610 - 11
Quad 49 - 219 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 365 Mississippi Valley W 106 - 55 99%  +29  1 - 0 +24 +4 F B- A+ +11 A+ B A+
 Fri, Nov 7 34 @North Carolina St. L 70 - 94 12%  -11  1 - 1 -7 +0 F B+ A -6 D- F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 301 Alabama St. L 74 - 77 91%  -4  1 - 2 -14 -11 F D B -3 D+ A D
 Fri, Nov 14 86 High Point W 91 - 74 49%  +3  2 - 2 +21 +7 B F A+ +12 A+ A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 200 South Alabama W 80 - 72 81%  +5  3 - 2 +3 +13 A C- A- -10 F A+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 130 Southern Illinois W 81 - 73 57%  +5  4 - 2 +10 +11 C- A+ A+ -1 B A+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 244 UTEP W 75 - 59 79%  +7  5 - 2 +11 +9 F A- A+ +4 D+ A+ A-
 Mon, Dec 1 123 @Middle Tennessee L 61 - 76 44%  -4  5 - 3 -10 -6 F A+ C -5 A- F C
 Fri, Dec 5 169 @Drake W 74 - 69 56%  +2  6 - 3 +7 +3 F A C- +4 A+ B D
 Sun, Dec 14 137 Troy L 85 - 86 69%  -0  6 - 4 -3 +15 A+ A A- -17 F D- F
 Wed, Dec 17 321 Cleveland St. W 101 - 77 93%  +7  7 - 4 +11 +14 A C- A+ -4 F A+ C
 Sun, Dec 21 239 UNC Asheville W 72 - 47 85%  +13  8 - 4 +18 +2 D+ D- A+ +18 A+ A+ B-
 Wed, Dec 31 104 Wichita St. L 70 - 75 58%  +6  8 - 5 0 - 1 -3 +3 D B+ A+ -6 D+ C B
 Sun, Jan 4 89 @South Florida W 109 - 106 2OT 29%  -3  9 - 5 1 - 1 +13 +10 C- F A+ +2 C- A+ C-
 Wed, Jan 7 106 Florida Atlantic L 71 - 76 59%  -7  9 - 6 1 - 2 -4 -5 F B B- +2 A+ B D
 Sun, Jan 11 266 @East Carolina W 78 - 71 74% 
 Wed, Jan 14 176 @Tulane W 76 - 74 57% 
 Sun, Jan 18 81 Tulsa L 79 - 80 49% 
 Thu, Jan 22 89 South Florida W 82 - 81 51% 
 Wed, Jan 28 315 @Texas San Antonio W 81 - 71 82% 
 Sat, Jan 31 133 @North Texas L 66 - 67 46% 
 Thu, Feb 5 78 Memphis L 75 - 76 47% 
 Sun, Feb 8 245 Rice W 79 - 68 85% 
 Wed, Feb 11 81 @Tulsa L 76 - 82 28% 
 Sun, Feb 15 176 Tulane W 79 - 71 76% 
 Wed, Feb 18 143 @Temple L 77 - 78 49% 
 Sun, Feb 22 78 @Memphis L 72 - 79 27% 
 Sun, Mar 1 133 North Texas W 69 - 64 68% 
 Wed, Mar 4 166 @Charlotte W 74 - 73 55% 
 Sun, Mar 8 266 East Carolina W 81 - 68 88% 
Totals 18 - 12 10 - 8 +4 +2 D C+ A+ +2 C+ A C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 2.4 2.1 0.8 0.1 6.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 4.0 3.5 0.8 0.0 8.9 2nd
3rd 0.4 4.0 5.4 1.0 0.0 10.7 3rd
4th 0.1 2.8 7.1 1.9 0.0 11.9 4th
5th 1.2 6.9 3.6 0.1 0.0 11.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 4.9 5.5 0.6 0.0 11.4 6th
7th 0.1 2.4 7.1 1.7 0.0 11.3 7th
8th 0.0 1.1 5.1 3.1 0.1 9.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 3.4 3.7 0.6 0.0 8.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.8 0.9 0.0 5.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.5 0.6 0.0 3.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 4.0 8.1 12.7 16.9 17.3 15.9 12.1 6.8 2.9 0.8 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 96.4% 0.8    0.7 0.1 0.0
14-4 71.6% 2.1    1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0
13-5 34.5% 2.4    0.6 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0
12-6 5.6% 0.7    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.1% 6.1 2.5 2.1 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.1% 20.0% 20.0% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.8% 25.1% 25.1% 11.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6
14-4 2.9% 20.9% 20.9% 11.7 0.2 0.4 0.0 2.3
13-5 6.8% 15.2% 15.2% 12.0 0.1 0.7 0.2 5.8
12-6 12.1% 13.1% 13.1% 12.2 0.1 1.1 0.4 0.0 10.5
11-7 15.9% 10.2% 10.2% 12.4 0.0 0.9 0.6 0.0 0.0 14.3
10-8 17.3% 5.7% 5.7% 12.5 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.0 16.3
9-9 16.9% 3.8% 3.8% 12.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 16.3
8-10 12.7% 2.4% 2.4% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 12.4
7-11 8.1% 1.3% 1.3% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.9
6-12 4.0% 1.6% 1.6% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.9
5-13 1.6% 0.6% 0.6% 15.0 0.0 1.6
4-14 0.6% 0.6
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 7.2% 7.2% 0.0% 12.4 92.8 0.0%