UAB
American Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.1#127
Expected Predictive Rating-5.6#264
Pace73.2#74
Improvement+2.0#72

Offense
Total Offense+4.4#66
First Shot+2.0#117
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#47
Layup/Dunks+4.9#30
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#74
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#307
Freethrows-0.6#222
Improvement+0.9#111

Defense
Total Defense-2.3#241
First Shot-1.6#225
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#245
Layups/Dunks-1.9#260
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#114
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#208
Freethrows-0.1#199
Improvement+1.1#105
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.0% 6.1% 3.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 12.7 13.2
.500 or above 54.8% 73.6% 49.3%
.500 or above in Conference 59.6% 77.8% 54.2%
Conference Champion 3.2% 7.8% 1.8%
Last Place in Conference 3.9% 1.3% 4.7%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round4.0% 6.1% 3.4%
Second Round0.6% 1.0% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Texas (Away) - 22.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 42 - 6
Quad 34 - 75 - 13
Quad 411 - 316 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 220   Vermont L 62-67 79%     0 - 1 -11.3 -4.3 -7.5
  Nov 07, 2024 282   Southern Miss W 98-84 86%     1 - 1 +4.4 +9.5 -6.9
  Nov 10, 2024 225   SE Louisiana W 82-72 79%     2 - 1 +3.5 +7.9 -4.6
  Nov 15, 2024 123   @ High Point L 65-68 37%     2 - 2 +2.3 -6.9 +9.1
  Nov 22, 2024 173   Longwood L 81-89 60%     2 - 3 -8.6 +6.1 -14.5
  Nov 23, 2024 141   Illinois St. L 83-84 54%     2 - 4 -0.1 +4.1 -4.1
  Nov 25, 2024 286   Louisiana W 98-86 80%     3 - 4 +5.3 +20.4 -15.2
  Dec 01, 2024 129   Middle Tennessee L 69-76 62%     3 - 5 -8.2 -2.7 -5.6
  Dec 06, 2024 340   Prairie View W 95-66 93%     4 - 5 +14.7 +9.1 +4.6
  Dec 15, 2024 105   Arkansas St. L 89-98 OT 52%     4 - 6 -7.6 -1.7 -3.9
  Dec 18, 2024 360   Alabama A&M W 96-67 95%     5 - 6 +11.7 +9.1 +0.9
  Dec 22, 2024 337   Alcorn St. W 91-74 93%     6 - 6 +2.9 +17.2 -12.9
  Dec 31, 2024 85   @ North Texas L 64-72 23%    
  Jan 04, 2025 239   Tulsa W 83-74 81%    
  Jan 07, 2025 202   Tulane W 82-75 74%    
  Jan 12, 2025 88   @ Florida Atlantic L 82-89 25%    
  Jan 15, 2025 169   @ South Florida L 78-79 49%    
  Jan 21, 2025 226   Texas San Antonio W 88-79 79%    
  Jan 26, 2025 44   @ Memphis L 77-89 13%    
  Jan 29, 2025 239   @ Tulsa W 80-77 62%    
  Feb 01, 2025 193   Charlotte W 80-73 73%    
  Feb 03, 2025 85   North Texas L 67-69 44%    
  Feb 11, 2025 182   @ East Carolina W 75-74 50%    
  Feb 16, 2025 169   South Florida W 82-76 70%    
  Feb 19, 2025 186   @ Rice W 75-74 51%    
  Feb 23, 2025 124   Temple W 80-77 60%    
  Feb 27, 2025 101   @ Wichita St. L 77-83 30%    
  Mar 02, 2025 44   Memphis L 80-86 29%    
  Mar 06, 2025 88   Florida Atlantic L 85-86 45%    
  Mar 09, 2025 202   @ Tulane W 79-78 53%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.0 2.7 1.3 0.3 0.0 6.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.1 4.2 1.6 0.2 0.0 9.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.5 5.3 2.0 0.2 0.0 11.5 4th
5th 0.2 3.2 6.3 2.6 0.2 0.0 12.5 5th
6th 0.0 2.0 6.4 3.4 0.4 0.0 12.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 5.5 4.2 0.6 0.0 11.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 3.4 4.8 1.0 0.0 9.4 8th
9th 0.1 1.7 4.3 1.5 0.1 7.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.9 3.3 1.9 0.2 0.0 6.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.8 1.9 0.3 4.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.4 0.4 0.0 3.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.7 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.2 4.5 7.6 10.9 14.1 15.3 14.5 11.9 8.6 5.2 2.6 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 94.2% 0.3    0.3 0.0
15-3 73.4% 0.8    0.5 0.3 0.0
14-4 41.8% 1.1    0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 14.5% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.8% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.2% 3.2 1.4 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.1% 21.4% 21.4% 11.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.3% 21.4% 21.4% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-3 1.1% 17.2% 17.2% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.9
14-4 2.6% 14.7% 14.7% 12.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.3
13-5 5.2% 12.4% 12.4% 12.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 4.6
12-6 8.6% 9.1% 9.1% 12.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 7.8
11-7 11.9% 5.8% 5.8% 13.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 11.3
10-8 14.5% 4.0% 4.0% 13.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 13.9
9-9 15.3% 2.1% 2.1% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 15.0
8-10 14.1% 1.4% 1.4% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 13.9
7-11 10.9% 0.9% 0.9% 15.4 0.1 0.0 10.8
6-12 7.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.0 7.5
5-13 4.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 4.5
4-14 2.2% 2.2
3-15 0.8% 0.8
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 13.0 0.1 1.3 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 96.0 0.0%