Texas Tech
Big 12
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.1#14
Expected Predictive Rating+4.6#119
Pace66.3#267
Improvement+0.1#169

Offense
Total Offense+8.7#14
First Shot+9.4#14
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#216
Layup/Dunks+1.8#109
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#34
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.0#20
Freethrows-2.9#314
Improvement-0.7#286

Defense
Total Defense+6.3#27
First Shot+5.3#45
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#114
Layups/Dunks+6.3#28
2 Pt Jumpshots-6.0#361
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#84
Freethrows+2.3#68
Improvement+0.8#82
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.1% 1.2% 0.3%
#1 Seed 5.2% 6.0% 1.9%
Top 2 Seed 12.5% 14.0% 5.5%
Top 4 Seed 31.9% 35.0% 17.4%
Top 6 Seed 50.9% 54.5% 33.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 81.7% 84.3% 69.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 80.1% 82.8% 67.5%
Average Seed 5.6 5.4 6.5
.500 or above 96.1% 97.5% 89.7%
.500 or above in Conference 79.3% 81.3% 69.8%
Conference Champion 9.7% 10.7% 5.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.8% 2.0%
First Four3.3% 3.0% 4.5%
First Round80.2% 83.0% 67.2%
Second Round60.0% 63.1% 45.7%
Sweet Sixteen32.4% 34.7% 21.2%
Elite Eight15.7% 17.0% 9.2%
Final Four7.4% 8.2% 3.9%
Championship Game3.4% 3.7% 1.8%
National Champion1.5% 1.7% 0.8%

Next Game: Saint Joseph's (Neutral) - 82.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 63 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 27 - 8
Quad 25 - 212 - 9
Quad 34 - 016 - 10
Quad 46 - 022 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 287   Bethune-Cookman W 94-61 98%     1 - 0 +23.6 +21.3 +3.2
  Nov 08, 2024 312   Northwestern St. W 86-65 98%     2 - 0 +9.5 +10.0 +0.1
  Nov 13, 2024 182   Wyoming W 96-49 95%     3 - 0 +42.8 +21.6 +21.6
  Nov 18, 2024 362   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 98-64 99.5%    4 - 0 +14.7 +10.2 +3.3
  Nov 21, 2024 99   Saint Joseph's W 78-68 82%    
  Nov 29, 2024 148   Northern Colorado W 83-66 95%    
  Dec 04, 2024 110   DePaul W 80-66 90%    
  Dec 08, 2024 26   Texas A&M W 71-69 56%    
  Dec 16, 2024 249   Oral Roberts W 85-62 98%    
  Dec 21, 2024 290   Lamar W 86-61 99%    
  Dec 31, 2024 71   Central Florida W 77-67 82%    
  Jan 04, 2025 55   @ Utah W 75-72 60%    
  Jan 07, 2025 34   @ BYU W 75-74 50%    
  Jan 11, 2025 12   Iowa St. W 70-68 56%    
  Jan 14, 2025 67   @ Kansas St. W 73-69 63%    
  Jan 18, 2025 13   Arizona W 79-76 59%    
  Jan 21, 2025 20   @ Cincinnati L 71-73 43%    
  Jan 26, 2025 86   Oklahoma St. W 80-68 84%    
  Jan 29, 2025 61   TCU W 77-68 79%    
  Feb 01, 2025 4   @ Houston L 63-70 26%    
  Feb 04, 2025 11   Baylor W 72-71 55%    
  Feb 08, 2025 13   @ Arizona L 76-79 39%    
  Feb 12, 2025 70   Arizona St. W 78-68 81%    
  Feb 15, 2025 86   @ Oklahoma St. W 77-71 68%    
  Feb 18, 2025 61   @ TCU W 74-71 61%    
  Feb 22, 2025 56   West Virginia W 76-67 78%    
  Feb 24, 2025 4   Houston L 66-67 45%    
  Mar 01, 2025 6   @ Kansas L 70-77 28%    
  Mar 05, 2025 68   Colorado W 76-66 80%    
  Mar 08, 2025 70   @ Arizona St. W 75-71 64%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.7 2.9 1.8 0.7 0.1 9.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.3 4.0 3.1 1.0 0.1 10.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.6 4.7 3.1 0.7 0.0 11.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.1 3.2 0.6 0.0 11.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.7 4.7 3.4 0.6 0.0 10.7 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 4.0 3.6 0.9 0.0 9.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.1 3.7 1.0 0.1 8.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.7 1.3 0.1 7.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 2.7 1.8 0.2 0.0 5.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.9 1.9 0.3 0.0 4.5 10th
11th 0.1 1.0 1.7 0.6 0.0 3.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.8 0.1 2.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.2 3.5 5.5 7.5 10.1 11.3 12.2 12.6 11.1 8.9 6.5 3.9 1.9 0.7 0.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.7    0.6 0.0
18-2 93.3% 1.8    1.5 0.3 0.0
17-3 74.0% 2.9    1.8 0.9 0.1
16-4 42.0% 2.7    1.1 1.2 0.3 0.1
15-5 14.4% 1.3    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 2.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 9.7% 9.7 5.5 3.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 59.1% 40.9% 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.7% 100.0% 37.3% 62.7% 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.9% 100.0% 31.1% 68.9% 1.5 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 3.9% 100.0% 25.6% 74.4% 1.8 1.5 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 6.5% 100.0% 20.1% 79.9% 2.5 1.2 2.2 1.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 8.9% 100.0% 16.2% 83.8% 3.3 0.6 1.6 2.9 2.4 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 11.1% 99.9% 10.9% 89.0% 4.3 0.2 0.6 2.2 3.3 2.7 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-7 12.6% 99.6% 8.2% 91.4% 5.4 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.5 3.1 2.8 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.5%
12-8 12.2% 98.0% 4.6% 93.3% 6.6 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.9 2.7 2.8 2.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.2 97.9%
11-9 11.3% 93.1% 2.9% 90.2% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.3 2.2 2.6 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.8 92.9%
10-10 10.1% 79.7% 1.8% 77.9% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.8 1.8 1.7 0.9 0.0 2.1 79.3%
9-11 7.5% 52.6% 1.1% 51.5% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.3 0.1 3.6 52.1%
8-12 5.5% 24.0% 0.6% 23.3% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 4.2 23.5%
7-13 3.5% 6.7% 0.6% 6.1% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.3 6.1%
6-14 2.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.6% 11.2 0.0 0.0 2.1 0.6%
5-15 1.1% 1.1
4-16 0.6% 0.6
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 81.7% 8.1% 73.6% 5.6 5.2 7.3 9.0 10.4 10.0 9.0 8.8 7.8 5.7 4.6 3.5 0.3 0.0 18.3 80.1%