Arizona
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.5#13
Expected Predictive Rating+2.7#146
Pace78.5#22
Improvement-1.2#301

Offense
Total Offense+9.0#13
First Shot+3.3#81
After Offensive Rebound+5.7#9
Layup/Dunks+8.9#10
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#278
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.9#351
Freethrows+4.1#22
Improvement-0.3#225

Defense
Total Defense+6.5#24
First Shot+6.1#32
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#167
Layups/Dunks+6.4#24
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#287
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#67
Freethrows-1.9#281
Improvement-0.9#291
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.8% 2.9% 0.9%
#1 Seed 7.7% 11.4% 4.4%
Top 2 Seed 17.2% 24.4% 10.8%
Top 4 Seed 38.7% 49.7% 29.1%
Top 6 Seed 56.6% 68.7% 46.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 80.4% 88.8% 72.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 78.4% 87.4% 70.8%
Average Seed 5.1 4.5 5.7
.500 or above 88.5% 94.5% 83.2%
.500 or above in Conference 77.9% 83.4% 73.0%
Conference Champion 10.5% 13.4% 7.9%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.6% 1.5%
First Four4.0% 3.0% 5.0%
First Round78.6% 87.6% 70.8%
Second Round61.7% 71.4% 53.1%
Sweet Sixteen35.8% 43.4% 29.1%
Elite Eight18.6% 23.2% 14.6%
Final Four9.4% 12.2% 7.0%
Championship Game4.7% 6.2% 3.3%
National Champion2.2% 3.0% 1.5%

Next Game: Duke (Home) - 46.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 74 - 7
Quad 1b4 - 37 - 9
Quad 25 - 213 - 11
Quad 33 - 016 - 11
Quad 44 - 020 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 351   Canisius W 93-64 99%     1 - 0 +13.0 +8.5 +3.7
  Nov 09, 2024 303   Old Dominion W 102-44 98%     2 - 0 +47.1 +18.0 +26.1
  Nov 15, 2024 37   @ Wisconsin L 88-103 54%     2 - 1 -0.5 +7.0 -5.3
  Nov 22, 2024 5   Duke L 78-79 47%    
  Nov 27, 2024 131   Davidson W 83-69 90%    
  Dec 07, 2024 208   Southern Utah W 92-71 97%    
  Dec 13, 2024 27   UCLA W 74-71 59%    
  Dec 18, 2024 127   Samford W 95-79 93%    
  Dec 21, 2024 204   Central Michigan W 85-64 97%    
  Dec 30, 2024 61   TCU W 85-75 81%    
  Jan 04, 2025 20   @ Cincinnati L 77-79 44%    
  Jan 07, 2025 56   @ West Virginia W 80-77 62%    
  Jan 11, 2025 71   Central Florida W 83-73 82%    
  Jan 14, 2025 11   Baylor W 79-77 56%    
  Jan 18, 2025 14   @ Texas Tech L 76-79 41%    
  Jan 21, 2025 86   @ Oklahoma St. W 84-78 70%    
  Jan 25, 2025 68   Colorado W 82-72 82%    
  Jan 27, 2025 12   Iowa St. W 77-75 57%    
  Feb 01, 2025 70   @ Arizona St. W 81-77 65%    
  Feb 04, 2025 34   @ BYU W 82-81 52%    
  Feb 08, 2025 14   Texas Tech W 79-76 61%    
  Feb 11, 2025 67   @ Kansas St. W 79-75 64%    
  Feb 15, 2025 4   Houston L 71-72 46%    
  Feb 17, 2025 11   @ Baylor L 76-80 36%    
  Feb 22, 2025 34   BYU W 85-78 72%    
  Feb 26, 2025 55   Utah W 85-76 79%    
  Mar 01, 2025 12   @ Iowa St. L 74-78 37%    
  Mar 04, 2025 70   Arizona St. W 84-74 81%    
  Mar 08, 2025 6   @ Kansas L 77-83 29%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.8 3.0 2.0 0.8 0.2 10.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.2 3.1 1.1 0.1 11.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.6 4.5 2.9 0.7 0.0 11.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.2 4.7 2.9 0.5 0.0 10.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.7 4.5 3.3 0.6 0.0 10.2 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 3.9 3.5 0.8 0.0 9.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.0 3.5 1.1 0.1 8.1 7th
8th 0.2 1.7 3.7 1.3 0.1 0.0 7.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 2.9 1.7 0.2 5.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.0 1.9 0.3 0.0 4.6 10th
11th 0.1 1.2 1.8 0.5 0.0 3.7 11th
12th 0.1 0.6 1.4 0.8 0.1 2.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.5 3.9 5.8 7.6 9.9 10.9 11.7 11.9 10.7 9.0 6.5 4.1 2.2 0.8 0.2 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 0.8    0.8 0.0
18-2 94.1% 2.0    1.7 0.3 0.0
17-3 73.0% 3.0    2.0 0.9 0.1 0.0
16-4 42.1% 2.8    1.1 1.2 0.4 0.1
15-5 15.1% 1.4    0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 3.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 10.5% 10.5 6.0 3.2 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 100.0% 50.0% 50.0% 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.8% 100.0% 42.6% 57.4% 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 2.2% 100.0% 32.9% 67.1% 1.3 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 4.1% 100.0% 28.2% 71.8% 1.6 2.0 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 6.5% 100.0% 21.0% 79.0% 2.2 1.8 2.6 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 9.0% 100.0% 17.5% 82.5% 2.8 1.1 2.5 2.9 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 10.7% 100.0% 13.2% 86.8% 3.7 0.4 1.5 3.0 3.1 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 11.9% 99.9% 9.4% 90.4% 4.7 0.1 0.5 2.0 3.1 2.9 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-8 11.7% 99.0% 4.7% 94.3% 5.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 2.6 2.7 2.1 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.0%
11-9 10.9% 95.0% 3.2% 91.8% 7.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 1.9 2.1 1.8 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.0 0.5 94.8%
10-10 9.9% 82.5% 1.8% 80.7% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.3 0.1 1.7 82.2%
9-11 7.6% 48.9% 1.6% 47.4% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.9 48.1%
8-12 5.8% 18.2% 0.6% 17.5% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 4.7 17.6%
7-13 3.9% 3.9% 0.3% 3.6% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.8 3.6%
6-14 2.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4 0.3%
5-15 1.4% 0.2% 0.2% 13.0 0.0 1.4
4-16 0.6% 0.6
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 80.4% 9.0% 71.3% 5.1 7.7 9.5 10.8 10.7 9.6 8.3 6.6 5.2 3.9 3.4 3.9 0.6 0.0 19.6 78.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 92.3 7.7