California
Atlantic Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.6#104
Expected Predictive Rating+10.7#47
Pace70.4#145
Improvement-1.7#335

Offense
Total Offense+2.4#113
First Shot+1.9#117
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#152
Layup/Dunks+3.0#84
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#212
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#164
Freethrows-0.9#232
Improvement-1.6#348

Defense
Total Defense+2.2#108
First Shot-0.1#180
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#49
Layups/Dunks+2.8#94
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#348
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#192
Freethrows+1.6#94
Improvement-0.1#202
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.5% 0.6% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.4% 7.9% 2.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 7.1% 7.5% 2.0%
Average Seed 9.5 9.5 9.9
.500 or above 48.7% 51.0% 23.6%
.500 or above in Conference 22.8% 23.7% 12.2%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 15.0% 14.2% 23.8%
First Four2.5% 2.6% 0.8%
First Round6.0% 6.4% 1.7%
Second Round2.4% 2.6% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.6% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Air Force (Home) - 91.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b1 - 42 - 8
Quad 24 - 66 - 14
Quad 34 - 29 - 16
Quad 46 - 016 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 239   Cal St. Bakersfield W 86-73 86%     1 - 0 +6.2 +6.7 -1.0
  Nov 07, 2024 294   Cal Poly W 91-73 91%     2 - 0 +7.9 +8.7 -2.1
  Nov 13, 2024 82   @ Vanderbilt L 69-85 30%     2 - 1 -6.0 -6.3 +1.5
  Nov 17, 2024 78   @ USC W 71-66 29%     3 - 1 +15.3 +6.2 +9.4
  Nov 21, 2024 292   Air Force W 74-60 92%    
  Nov 24, 2024 307   Sacramento St. W 75-59 93%    
  Nov 27, 2024 359   Mercyhurst W 78-56 98%    
  Dec 03, 2024 61   @ Missouri L 70-77 25%    
  Dec 07, 2024 67   Stanford L 72-73 47%    
  Dec 10, 2024 167   Cornell W 84-76 77%    
  Dec 14, 2024 316   Northwestern St. W 80-64 93%    
  Dec 21, 2024 62   San Diego St. L 66-70 36%    
  Jan 01, 2025 25   @ Pittsburgh L 67-79 14%    
  Jan 04, 2025 49   @ Clemson L 68-76 24%    
  Jan 08, 2025 58   Virginia L 62-63 45%    
  Jan 11, 2025 95   Virginia Tech W 73-71 57%    
  Jan 15, 2025 7   @ North Carolina L 72-88 8%    
  Jan 18, 2025 52   @ North Carolina St. L 70-78 24%    
  Jan 22, 2025 79   Florida St. W 75-74 52%    
  Jan 25, 2025 37   Miami (FL) L 74-78 37%    
  Jan 29, 2025 68   @ SMU L 75-82 28%    
  Feb 01, 2025 92   Syracuse W 79-77 58%    
  Feb 05, 2025 52   North Carolina St. L 73-75 44%    
  Feb 08, 2025 73   Wake Forest L 73-74 50%    
  Feb 12, 2025 5   @ Duke L 64-82 6%    
  Feb 15, 2025 106   @ Georgia Tech L 77-80 41%    
  Feb 22, 2025 67   @ Stanford L 69-76 28%    
  Feb 26, 2025 68   SMU L 78-79 47%    
  Mar 01, 2025 133   Boston College W 75-69 69%    
  Mar 05, 2025 46   @ Louisville L 72-80 24%    
  Mar 08, 2025 56   @ Notre Dame L 66-74 26%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.4 3rd
4th 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 2.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.7 5th
6th 0.2 1.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 3.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 2.1 0.6 0.0 4.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.6 1.3 0.1 4.6 8th
9th 0.2 2.1 2.5 0.3 0.0 5.1 9th
10th 0.0 1.1 3.6 1.2 0.1 6.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 3.2 2.8 0.3 0.0 6.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 2.1 4.4 1.1 0.0 7.8 12th
13th 0.1 1.0 4.2 2.6 0.2 8.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.6 3.3 4.0 0.7 0.0 8.6 14th
15th 0.0 0.4 2.6 4.7 1.7 0.1 9.5 15th
16th 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.5 2.6 0.3 0.0 10.2 16th
17th 0.1 0.6 2.3 3.8 2.9 0.6 0.0 10.3 17th
18th 0.3 1.1 2.2 2.9 1.9 0.4 0.0 8.8 18th
Total 0.3 1.2 2.8 5.6 8.4 11.0 12.4 12.8 12.3 10.4 8.1 6.0 4.0 2.4 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 48.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 18.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 8.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 1.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 100.0% 14.0% 86.0% 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.2% 97.8% 7.8% 90.0% 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.6%
15-5 0.6% 94.7% 9.3% 85.4% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 94.1%
14-6 1.3% 79.0% 4.5% 74.6% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 78.0%
13-7 2.4% 59.7% 2.0% 57.7% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 1.0 58.9%
12-8 4.0% 41.2% 1.6% 39.6% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.0 2.3 40.3%
11-9 6.0% 21.4% 0.5% 20.9% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.1 4.7 21.0%
10-10 8.1% 10.3% 0.2% 10.1% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 7.3 10.1%
9-11 10.4% 2.1% 0.2% 1.9% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 10.2 1.9%
8-12 12.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.2 0.2%
7-13 12.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.5 0.0 0.0 12.8 0.0%
6-14 12.4% 0.0% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.0 12.4
5-15 11.0% 11.0
4-16 8.4% 8.4
3-17 5.6% 5.6
2-18 2.8% 2.8
1-19 1.2% 1.2
0-20 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 7.4% 0.3% 7.1% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.7 2.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 92.6 7.1%