Florida St.
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.2#79
Expected Predictive Rating+8.4#67
Pace75.6#48
Improvement+1.1#64

Offense
Total Offense+2.0#119
First Shot-0.3#195
After Offensive Rebound+2.3#62
Layup/Dunks+3.8#61
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#149
3 Pt Jumpshots-8.3#352
Freethrows+3.7#33
Improvement+0.7#80

Defense
Total Defense+5.2#47
First Shot+2.0#118
After Offensive Rebounds+3.2#30
Layups/Dunks+2.2#115
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#97
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#247
Freethrows+0.3#160
Improvement+0.4#121
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.8% 1.0% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 2.5% 3.4% 1.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.2% 23.3% 12.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 18.3% 22.3% 11.6%
Average Seed 9.0 8.9 9.3
.500 or above 64.2% 72.7% 49.9%
.500 or above in Conference 39.3% 43.9% 31.6%
Conference Champion 0.8% 1.1% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 7.1% 5.7% 9.4%
First Four4.8% 5.6% 3.5%
First Round16.5% 20.3% 10.2%
Second Round7.6% 9.3% 4.7%
Sweet Sixteen2.1% 2.6% 1.2%
Elite Eight0.6% 0.8% 0.4%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Temple (Neutral) - 62.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 42 - 8
Quad 24 - 56 - 13
Quad 36 - 213 - 15
Quad 45 - 017 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 201   Northern Kentucky W 74-62 87%     1 - 0 +7.0 -4.8 +10.7
  Nov 09, 2024 171   Rice W 73-65 77%     2 - 0 +7.4 -1.6 +8.8
  Nov 12, 2024 317   Tarleton St. W 72-52 95%     3 - 0 +8.5 -7.7 +15.5
  Nov 15, 2024 21   Florida L 74-87 36%     3 - 1 -2.0 -0.6 -0.7
  Nov 19, 2024 131   Hofstra W 79-61 78%     4 - 1 +16.9 +7.6 +9.6
  Nov 22, 2024 113   Temple W 75-72 62%    
  Nov 24, 2024 129   Massachusetts W 77-72 68%    
  Nov 26, 2024 258   Western Carolina W 78-63 92%    
  Dec 03, 2024 48   @ LSU L 73-79 30%    
  Dec 07, 2024 52   @ North Carolina St. L 73-78 31%    
  Dec 14, 2024 146   Tulane W 79-73 71%    
  Dec 17, 2024 193   Winthrop W 82-70 86%    
  Dec 21, 2024 46   Louisville W 77-76 51%    
  Jan 04, 2025 92   Syracuse W 82-77 66%    
  Jan 07, 2025 37   @ Miami (FL) L 73-80 26%    
  Jan 11, 2025 49   @ Clemson L 70-75 32%    
  Jan 15, 2025 25   Pittsburgh L 73-76 38%    
  Jan 18, 2025 106   Georgia Tech W 82-76 70%    
  Jan 22, 2025 104   @ California L 74-75 48%    
  Jan 25, 2025 67   @ Stanford L 72-76 36%    
  Jan 29, 2025 95   Virginia Tech W 75-70 66%    
  Feb 01, 2025 133   @ Boston College W 73-71 58%    
  Feb 04, 2025 56   Notre Dame W 71-70 54%    
  Feb 12, 2025 73   @ Wake Forest L 72-76 38%    
  Feb 15, 2025 49   Clemson W 73-72 52%    
  Feb 19, 2025 37   Miami (FL) L 76-77 45%    
  Feb 22, 2025 46   @ Louisville L 73-79 31%    
  Feb 24, 2025 7   North Carolina L 78-85 26%    
  Mar 01, 2025 5   @ Duke L 67-82 10%    
  Mar 04, 2025 58   @ Virginia L 60-65 34%    
  Mar 07, 2025 68   SMU W 80-78 56%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.9 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 2.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 4.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 2.3 1.5 0.2 0.0 5.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.3 2.3 0.5 0.0 5.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 3.4 1.0 0.1 6.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.5 2.1 0.2 0.0 6.5 8th
9th 0.2 2.5 3.8 0.6 0.0 7.1 9th
10th 0.0 1.1 4.1 1.7 0.1 7.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 3.4 3.2 0.4 0.0 7.4 11th
12th 0.1 1.9 4.2 1.2 0.1 7.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.9 3.9 2.6 0.2 7.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.4 2.8 3.5 0.7 0.0 7.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.3 1.4 0.1 0.0 6.7 15th
16th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.9 1.8 0.2 0.0 6.5 16th
17th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.2 1.6 0.4 0.0 5.5 17th
18th 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.0 3.7 18th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.5 4.6 7.0 9.3 11.5 12.2 12.0 11.2 9.5 7.1 5.1 3.0 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
18-2 80.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 62.1% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
16-4 32.6% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 8.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 1.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 100.0% 19.3% 80.7% 3.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.3% 100.0% 16.7% 83.3% 4.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.9% 98.0% 11.5% 86.5% 5.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.8%
15-5 1.9% 95.4% 9.2% 86.2% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 95.0%
14-6 3.0% 90.0% 6.3% 83.8% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.3 89.4%
13-7 5.1% 74.1% 2.9% 71.1% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.0 1.3 73.3%
12-8 7.1% 53.9% 2.3% 51.6% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.2 0.1 3.3 52.8%
11-9 9.5% 32.2% 0.8% 31.4% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.4 0.1 0.0 6.5 31.7%
10-10 11.2% 17.3% 0.5% 16.8% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 9.3 16.9%
9-11 12.0% 4.7% 0.3% 4.5% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 11.4 4.5%
8-12 12.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.7% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 12.1 0.7%
7-13 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 11.5 0.0%
6-14 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 9.3
5-15 7.0% 7.0
4-16 4.6% 4.6
3-17 2.5% 2.5
2-18 1.2% 1.2
1-19 0.4% 0.4
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 19.2% 1.1% 18.1% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.5 2.5 3.1 4.0 5.0 0.6 0.0 80.8 18.3%