Michigan St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.8#35
Expected Predictive Rating+10.5#48
Pace70.4#147
Improvement-0.6#255

Offense
Total Offense+4.6#60
First Shot+4.7#58
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#191
Layup/Dunks+7.9#14
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#191
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.4#349
Freethrows+4.5#17
Improvement+1.0#53

Defense
Total Defense+7.3#15
First Shot+4.4#57
After Offensive Rebounds+2.8#38
Layups/Dunks+3.9#69
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#302
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#53
Freethrows-1.6#269
Improvement-1.6#338
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
#1 Seed 1.3% 1.8% 0.5%
Top 2 Seed 3.9% 5.1% 1.7%
Top 4 Seed 14.2% 17.9% 7.4%
Top 6 Seed 28.3% 34.3% 17.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 62.8% 69.9% 49.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 60.7% 67.8% 48.1%
Average Seed 6.8 6.6 7.5
.500 or above 83.3% 89.1% 72.8%
.500 or above in Conference 63.6% 68.4% 54.9%
Conference Champion 7.1% 8.5% 4.5%
Last Place in Conference 3.0% 2.2% 4.5%
First Four5.9% 5.4% 6.7%
First Round59.7% 67.1% 46.2%
Second Round37.3% 43.2% 26.7%
Sweet Sixteen15.7% 18.9% 9.9%
Elite Eight6.2% 7.7% 3.7%
Final Four2.5% 3.1% 1.4%
Championship Game0.9% 1.1% 0.5%
National Champion0.3% 0.4% 0.2%

Next Game: Colorado (Neutral) - 64.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 9
Quad 25 - 310 - 11
Quad 34 - 114 - 12
Quad 45 - 019 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 261   Monmouth W 81-57 96%     1 - 0 +15.9 +1.0 +14.2
  Nov 07, 2024 327   Niagara W 96-60 98%     2 - 0 +23.8 +15.4 +8.1
  Nov 12, 2024 6   Kansas L 69-77 25%     2 - 1 +10.8 -2.6 +14.3
  Nov 16, 2024 264   Bowling Green W 86-72 96%     3 - 1 +5.8 +6.5 -0.9
  Nov 19, 2024 127   Samford W 83-75 87%     4 - 1 +7.4 +6.4 +0.9
  Nov 25, 2024 70   Colorado W 73-69 64%    
  Dec 04, 2024 90   @ Minnesota W 67-64 62%    
  Dec 07, 2024 65   Nebraska W 75-69 72%    
  Dec 17, 2024 176   Oakland W 75-62 88%    
  Dec 21, 2024 75   Florida Atlantic W 81-74 75%    
  Dec 30, 2024 319   Western Michigan W 84-60 98%    
  Jan 03, 2025 20   @ Ohio St. L 67-72 32%    
  Jan 09, 2025 84   Washington W 77-69 76%    
  Jan 12, 2025 74   @ Northwestern W 67-66 54%    
  Jan 15, 2025 32   Penn St. W 77-75 57%    
  Jan 19, 2025 26   Illinois W 75-74 55%    
  Jan 25, 2025 42   Rutgers W 71-70 53%    
  Jan 28, 2025 90   Minnesota W 70-61 79%    
  Feb 01, 2025 78   @ USC W 74-72 55%    
  Feb 04, 2025 28   @ UCLA L 64-68 35%    
  Feb 08, 2025 40   Oregon W 72-69 62%    
  Feb 11, 2025 22   Indiana W 73-72 54%    
  Feb 15, 2025 26   @ Illinois L 72-77 35%    
  Feb 18, 2025 19   Purdue W 73-72 53%    
  Feb 21, 2025 24   @ Michigan L 70-75 34%    
  Feb 26, 2025 30   @ Maryland L 68-72 37%    
  Mar 02, 2025 38   Wisconsin W 74-71 62%    
  Mar 06, 2025 41   @ Iowa L 77-79 42%    
  Mar 09, 2025 24   Michigan W 73-72 54%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.7 2.1 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 7.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 2.4 2.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.6 2.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 7.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 3.5 1.4 0.2 7.0 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 3.7 2.1 0.2 0.0 7.1 5th
6th 0.3 2.8 3.2 0.6 0.0 6.9 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 4.0 1.4 0.1 0.0 6.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 3.3 2.9 0.3 6.8 8th
9th 0.0 1.5 3.8 1.0 0.0 6.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 3.1 2.4 0.2 6.1 10th
11th 0.1 1.8 3.4 0.7 0.0 5.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.7 3.0 1.7 0.1 5.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 1.8 2.5 0.4 0.0 5.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.3 1.0 0.0 4.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 1.4 0.2 3.9 15th
16th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.1 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.0 2.4 17th
18th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.5 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 3.0 4.7 6.7 8.9 10.4 11.8 12.0 11.0 9.8 7.5 5.4 3.4 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 99.1% 0.3    0.3 0.0
18-2 96.1% 0.7    0.6 0.1
17-3 89.0% 1.5    1.2 0.3 0.0
16-4 62.1% 2.1    1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0
15-5 31.4% 1.7    0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 9.0% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.1% 7.1 3.9 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 59.1% 40.9% 1.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.3% 100.0% 30.4% 69.6% 1.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.7% 100.0% 24.2% 75.8% 1.9 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.7% 100.0% 23.7% 76.3% 2.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 3.4% 100.0% 21.2% 78.8% 3.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 5.4% 100.0% 16.1% 83.9% 4.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 7.5% 99.7% 13.9% 85.7% 5.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.7 2.0 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6%
13-7 9.8% 99.2% 9.4% 89.8% 6.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 2.3 2.1 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.1%
12-8 11.0% 96.1% 4.9% 91.2% 7.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.9 2.4 2.3 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.4 95.9%
11-9 12.0% 87.9% 2.6% 85.3% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 2.3 2.6 1.8 1.0 0.1 1.4 87.6%
10-10 11.8% 69.6% 1.6% 68.0% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.2 1.8 2.0 2.1 0.2 0.0 3.6 69.1%
9-11 10.4% 35.7% 0.5% 35.2% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.9 0.4 0.0 6.7 35.4%
8-12 8.9% 11.0% 0.3% 10.7% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 8.0 10.7%
7-13 6.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.5% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.6 0.5%
6-14 4.7% 0.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 4.6
5-15 3.0% 3.0
4-16 1.6% 1.6
3-17 0.8% 0.8
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 62.8% 5.4% 57.4% 6.8 1.3 2.6 4.5 5.8 6.6 7.5 7.7 7.4 6.9 5.8 5.9 0.8 0.0 37.2 60.7%