Oregon
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.4#40
Expected Predictive Rating+9.4#57
Pace68.3#210
Improvement+0.2#144

Offense
Total Offense+5.3#49
First Shot+5.9#41
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#208
Layup/Dunks+3.8#62
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#138
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#204
Freethrows+2.1#81
Improvement-0.8#298

Defense
Total Defense+6.0#34
First Shot+4.4#60
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#82
Layups/Dunks+1.0#142
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#60
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#290
Freethrows+4.3#17
Improvement+1.0#57
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.1% 1.6% 0.4%
Top 2 Seed 3.3% 4.5% 1.5%
Top 4 Seed 11.9% 15.2% 6.7%
Top 6 Seed 24.7% 30.4% 15.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 59.0% 66.4% 47.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 57.0% 64.4% 45.5%
Average Seed 7.0 6.8 7.5
.500 or above 81.8% 88.7% 70.8%
.500 or above in Conference 59.9% 65.0% 51.9%
Conference Champion 6.3% 7.6% 4.2%
Last Place in Conference 4.1% 3.2% 5.4%
First Four5.5% 5.3% 5.8%
First Round56.3% 63.8% 44.4%
Second Round34.4% 40.1% 25.4%
Sweet Sixteen14.1% 17.0% 9.6%
Elite Eight5.6% 6.9% 3.5%
Final Four2.1% 2.6% 1.4%
Championship Game0.8% 1.0% 0.4%
National Champion0.3% 0.4% 0.1%

Next Game: Oregon St. (Away) - 61.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 45 - 8
Quad 26 - 311 - 12
Quad 34 - 115 - 12
Quad 44 - 019 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 198   UC Riverside W 91-76 93%     1 - 0 +10.2 +13.9 -3.9
  Nov 08, 2024 211   Montana W 79-48 93%     2 - 0 +25.5 +7.8 +20.1
  Nov 12, 2024 289   Portland W 80-70 OT 96%     3 - 0 +0.4 -7.6 +6.8
  Nov 17, 2024 124   Troy W 82-61 86%     4 - 0 +20.7 +6.4 +13.2
  Nov 21, 2024 98   @ Oregon St. W 69-66 61%    
  Nov 26, 2024 23   Texas A&M L 69-71 41%    
  Nov 27, 2024 62   San Diego St. W 68-65 60%    
  Dec 04, 2024 78   @ USC W 74-73 54%    
  Dec 08, 2024 28   UCLA W 67-66 55%    
  Dec 15, 2024 182   Stephen F. Austin W 73-58 92%    
  Dec 21, 2024 67   Stanford W 73-70 61%    
  Dec 29, 2024 225   Weber St. W 77-60 94%    
  Jan 02, 2025 26   Illinois W 75-74 53%    
  Jan 05, 2025 30   Maryland W 71-70 55%    
  Jan 09, 2025 20   @ Ohio St. L 66-72 31%    
  Jan 12, 2025 32   @ Penn St. L 74-78 35%    
  Jan 18, 2025 19   Purdue W 73-72 51%    
  Jan 21, 2025 84   Washington W 77-69 74%    
  Jan 25, 2025 90   @ Minnesota W 67-64 59%    
  Jan 30, 2025 28   @ UCLA L 64-69 34%    
  Feb 02, 2025 65   Nebraska W 74-68 70%    
  Feb 05, 2025 24   @ Michigan L 70-75 32%    
  Feb 08, 2025 35   @ Michigan St. L 69-72 38%    
  Feb 11, 2025 74   Northwestern W 70-63 72%    
  Feb 16, 2025 42   Rutgers W 72-69 62%    
  Feb 19, 2025 41   @ Iowa L 76-79 40%    
  Feb 22, 2025 38   @ Wisconsin L 71-74 39%    
  Mar 01, 2025 78   USC W 77-70 73%    
  Mar 04, 2025 22   Indiana W 73-72 52%    
  Mar 09, 2025 84   @ Washington W 74-72 55%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.9 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 6.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 2.2 2.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 6.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.3 2.7 1.0 0.1 0.0 6.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 3.4 1.3 0.1 0.0 6.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 3.3 2.0 0.3 0.0 6.6 5th
6th 0.2 2.7 3.0 0.6 0.0 6.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 3.8 1.4 0.1 6.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 3.1 2.7 0.3 6.4 8th
9th 0.1 1.5 3.8 1.0 0.0 6.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 3.2 2.4 0.2 6.3 10th
11th 0.1 1.7 3.3 0.6 0.0 5.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.7 3.1 1.7 0.1 5.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 2.0 2.6 0.5 5.3 13th
14th 0.1 1.1 2.7 1.1 0.0 5.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.7 1.9 1.5 0.2 0.0 4.4 15th
16th 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.4 0.4 0.0 3.8 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.1 0.5 0.0 3.0 17th
18th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 2.1 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 3.7 5.3 7.5 9.2 10.7 11.6 11.5 10.3 9.2 7.0 4.7 3.1 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 97.7% 0.6    0.6 0.1
17-3 85.9% 1.3    1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
16-4 60.9% 1.9    1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0
15-5 31.6% 1.5    0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 8.5% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.3% 6.3 3.4 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.2% 100.0% 41.3% 58.7% 1.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.7% 100.0% 28.7% 71.3% 1.8 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.6% 100.0% 22.4% 77.6% 2.4 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 3.1% 99.9% 21.5% 78.4% 3.2 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
15-5 4.7% 99.9% 14.9% 85.1% 4.1 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-6 7.0% 99.5% 11.9% 87.6% 5.2 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.4 1.8 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4%
13-7 9.2% 98.5% 8.0% 90.6% 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.1 1.9 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 98.4%
12-8 10.3% 94.8% 4.6% 90.3% 7.5 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.6 2.3 2.1 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.5 94.6%
11-9 11.5% 85.2% 2.7% 82.5% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.2 2.4 1.7 0.9 0.0 1.7 84.8%
10-10 11.6% 66.3% 1.8% 64.6% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.7 2.0 1.7 0.2 3.9 65.7%
9-11 10.7% 37.2% 0.8% 36.4% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.6 0.3 0.0 6.7 36.7%
8-12 9.2% 13.9% 0.2% 13.7% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.2 7.9 13.8%
7-13 7.5% 2.0% 0.2% 1.9% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.4 1.9%
6-14 5.3% 0.1% 0.1% 10.0 0.0 0.0 5.3
5-15 3.7% 3.7
4-16 2.1% 2.1
3-17 1.0% 1.0
2-18 0.4% 0.4
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 59.0% 4.7% 54.3% 7.0 1.1 2.2 3.7 4.9 5.9 6.9 7.5 7.4 7.2 6.1 5.5 0.7 0.0 41.0 57.0%