Wisconsin
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.3#36
Expected Predictive Rating+14.4#34
Pace68.4#195
Improvement-1.3#271

Offense
Total Offense+8.7#12
First Shot+8.7#10
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#178
Layup/Dunks+1.3#137
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#340
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#40
Freethrows+5.9#1
Improvement-0.7#245

Defense
Total Defense+3.5#85
First Shot+3.3#79
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#158
Layups/Dunks+2.6#83
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#307
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#77
Freethrows-0.4#217
Improvement-0.6#233
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.6% 1.7% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 9.0% 9.0% 2.7%
Top 6 Seed 25.2% 25.4% 9.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 72.2% 72.5% 45.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 71.1% 71.3% 45.3%
Average Seed 7.4 7.4 8.4
.500 or above 95.1% 95.3% 74.8%
.500 or above in Conference 55.8% 56.0% 35.9%
Conference Champion 2.1% 2.1% 1.6%
Last Place in Conference 2.2% 2.1% 7.8%
First Four7.3% 7.2% 9.5%
First Round68.7% 69.0% 40.4%
Second Round40.3% 40.5% 21.4%
Sweet Sixteen15.3% 15.4% 5.2%
Elite Eight5.9% 6.0% 1.6%
Final Four2.2% 2.2% 0.6%
Championship Game0.8% 0.8% 0.4%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Detroit Mercy (Home) - 99.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 36 - 9
Quad 27 - 312 - 12
Quad 33 - 015 - 12
Quad 45 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 310   Holy Cross W 85-61 98%     1 - 0 +12.7 +8.0 +5.9
  Nov 07, 2024 141   Montana St. W 79-67 90%     2 - 0 +9.9 +9.6 +1.2
  Nov 10, 2024 173   Appalachian St. W 87-56 92%     3 - 0 +27.2 +15.3 +12.1
  Nov 15, 2024 17   Arizona W 103-88 50%     4 - 0 +27.2 +21.0 +4.0
  Nov 18, 2024 227   UT Rio Grande Valley W 87-84 95%     5 - 0 -3.5 +10.3 -13.8
  Nov 22, 2024 84   Central Florida W 86-70 70%     6 - 0 +22.7 +9.1 +12.1
  Nov 24, 2024 33   Pittsburgh W 81-75 49%     7 - 0 +18.4 +16.0 +2.6
  Nov 30, 2024 360   Chicago St. W 74-53 99%     8 - 0 +3.8 -0.4 +5.4
  Dec 03, 2024 21   Michigan L 64-67 54%     8 - 1 0 - 1 +8.2 -1.3 +9.5
  Dec 07, 2024 18   @ Marquette L 74-88 29%     8 - 2 +4.1 +14.1 -10.9
  Dec 10, 2024 16   @ Illinois L 80-86 28%     8 - 3 0 - 2 +12.2 +11.8 +0.7
  Dec 14, 2024 74   Butler W 83-74 68%     9 - 3 +16.5 +15.0 +1.8
  Dec 22, 2024 323   Detroit Mercy W 85-61 99%    
  Jan 03, 2025 42   Iowa W 84-80 67%    
  Jan 06, 2025 64   @ Rutgers W 77-76 52%    
  Jan 10, 2025 114   Minnesota W 74-62 87%    
  Jan 14, 2025 38   Ohio St. W 77-73 62%    
  Jan 18, 2025 76   @ USC W 76-74 57%    
  Jan 21, 2025 14   @ UCLA L 66-72 29%    
  Jan 26, 2025 53   Nebraska W 78-73 69%    
  Jan 29, 2025 19   @ Maryland L 73-79 30%    
  Feb 01, 2025 61   @ Northwestern W 70-69 51%    
  Feb 04, 2025 45   Indiana W 80-75 66%    
  Feb 08, 2025 42   @ Iowa L 81-83 45%    
  Feb 15, 2025 20   @ Purdue L 73-78 32%    
  Feb 18, 2025 16   Illinois W 78-77 50%    
  Feb 22, 2025 23   Oregon W 76-75 54%    
  Feb 25, 2025 82   Washington W 79-71 78%    
  Mar 02, 2025 15   @ Michigan St. L 71-77 29%    
  Mar 05, 2025 114   @ Minnesota W 71-65 70%    
  Mar 08, 2025 30   Penn St. W 80-77 59%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 1.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.1 1.8 0.3 0.0 4.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 2.8 0.7 0.0 5.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 3.8 1.8 0.1 6.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 3.0 3.4 0.5 0.0 7.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 4.5 1.6 0.1 7.4 7th
8th 0.3 3.5 3.5 0.4 0.0 7.7 8th
9th 0.0 1.6 5.2 1.3 0.0 8.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 4.0 3.3 0.2 8.0 10th
11th 0.1 1.8 4.9 1.1 0.0 7.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 4.0 2.6 0.1 7.3 12th
13th 0.2 2.1 3.7 0.6 0.0 6.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.0 1.5 0.1 5.8 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.1 1.8 0.3 4.7 15th
16th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.5 0.5 0.0 3.5 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.0 2.2 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.9 5.4 8.2 11.7 14.1 14.7 13.7 11.6 7.9 4.6 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 86.7% 0.0    0.0
17-3 91.7% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-4 70.4% 0.6    0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
15-5 34.1% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 9.8% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.1% 2.1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.2% 100.0% 22.5% 77.5% 1.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.9% 100.0% 20.6% 79.4% 2.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 2.2% 100.0% 19.8% 80.2% 3.3 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.1 100.0%
14-6 4.6% 100.0% 14.8% 85.2% 4.3 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.4 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 7.9% 99.9% 11.1% 88.8% 5.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.3 2.2 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-8 11.6% 99.4% 6.0% 93.4% 6.4 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.0 3.2 3.2 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.4%
11-9 13.7% 97.8% 3.9% 93.9% 7.4 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.2 3.5 3.4 2.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.3 97.7%
10-10 14.7% 94.5% 2.4% 92.0% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 3.6 4.0 2.4 0.6 0.0 0.8 94.3%
9-11 14.1% 77.9% 0.9% 77.0% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.7 3.8 2.5 0.1 3.1 77.7%
8-12 11.7% 47.5% 0.4% 47.1% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 3.0 0.3 6.1 47.3%
7-13 8.2% 12.5% 0.2% 12.3% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.2 7.1 12.3%
6-14 5.4% 0.8% 0.8% 11.3 0.0 0.0 5.4 0.8%
5-15 2.9% 2.9
4-16 1.3% 1.3
3-17 0.5% 0.5
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 72.2% 4.0% 68.2% 7.4 0.4 1.3 2.9 4.5 6.9 9.3 10.5 10.2 10.1 8.6 6.9 0.7 27.8 71.1%