Charlotte
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.7 #166
Expected Predictive Rating -2.2 #204
Pace 61.1 #354
Improvement +0.9 #127

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #119 C+ C+ C C B
Defense #257 C C- D C D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #163 1.24 #90 +1.9 #112
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #321 0.62 #326 -3.6 #339
Three Pointers 48% #54 1.02 #178 +3.6 #70
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #126 +1.9 #126
Freethrows 17.5 #179 77% #48 13.6 #170
Second Chance 34.5% #79 1.02 #218 0.35 #115
Turnovers 16.5% #168
Total Offense +1.9 #119

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #150 1.15 #158 -0.5 #199
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #249 0.75 #182 +0.9 #129
Three Pointers 42% #146 1.05 #232 -1.4 #240
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #213 -1.0 #214
Freethrows 18.6 #248 66% #16 12.4 #182
Second Chance 30.6% #168 1.12 #279 0.34 #236
Turnovers 14.4% #309
Total Defense -2.6 #257

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.0% #65 0.9% #253
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.7% #149 1.1% #202
Possession Length 18.7 #319 18.4 #331
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #231 0.16 #135
Improvement +1.0 #113 -0.2 #204

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.5% 2.0% 1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.6 13.9
.500 or above 30.0% 40.6% 17.6%
.500 or above in Conference 53.2% 66.5% 37.7%
Conference Champion 1.8% 2.9% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.3% 2.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round1.5% 2.0% 1.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rice (Away) - 54.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 61 - 8
Quad 33 - 75 - 15
Quad 410 - 214 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 191 Indiana St. W 92 - 76 66%  +9  1 - 0 +11 +19 A+ A+ A -8 C D F
 Fri, Nov 7 313 Tennessee Tech W 70 - 65 86%  +9  2 - 0 -7 -4 C+ A+ F -3 C- F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 125 Davidson L 55 - 62 51%  -10  2 - 1 -8 -6 F D B- -3 D A+ A-
 Sun, Nov 16 68 @Virginia Tech L 76 - 84 13%  -8  2 - 2 +4 +13 B- A- A+ -10 A+ D F
 Fri, Nov 21 224 @Appalachian St. L 63 - 65 48%  +2  2 - 3 -2 +7 D A- F -10 F D C-
 Thu, Nov 27 85 Illinois St. L 69 - 79 23%  -10  2 - 4 -3 +4 A+ F F -8 C D+ F
 Fri, Nov 28 115 Richmond L 66 - 71 34%  -8  2 - 5 -1 -3 C F A +1 B- C C
 Tue, Dec 2 305 N.C. A&T W 74 - 57 84%  +13  3 - 5 +6 +1 A A- F +6 A- B+ B-
 Sun, Dec 7 35 Utah St. L 53 - 79 14%  -11  3 - 6 -15 -11 F A+ F -6 B A+ F
 Sun, Dec 14 149 @College of Charleston L 67 - 74 34%  -4  3 - 7 -4 -2 C F F -1 D- D B-
 Thu, Dec 18 318 Lafayette W 81 - 67 86%  +11  4 - 7 +2 +17 A+ C- C+ -13 D F D+
 Sun, Dec 21 184 Illinois-Chicago W 88 - 76 OT 65%  -9  5 - 7 +7 +12 C F B -5 F A+ C
 Tue, Dec 30 143 Temple L 73 - 76 55%  -8  5 - 8 0 - 1 -5 -1 D+ C D- -4 D- C B-
 Sat, Jan 3 104 Wichita St. W 104 - 100 2OT 41%  -10  6 - 8 1 - 1 +6 +25 B+ A+ A+ -19 F F C
 Wed, Jan 7 315 @Texas San Antonio W 74 - 58 70%  +9  7 - 8 2 - 1 +10 +7 C C+ D+ +4 C C F
 Sun, Jan 11 245 @Rice W 70 - 69 54% 
 Wed, Jan 14 81 Tulsa L 72 - 77 32% 
 Sun, Jan 18 266 @East Carolina W 71 - 69 59% 
 Sun, Jan 25 176 Tulane W 73 - 69 63% 
 Wed, Jan 28 143 @Temple L 70 - 75 33% 
 Sat, Jan 31 245 Rice W 73 - 66 75% 
 Wed, Feb 4 104 @Wichita St. L 66 - 74 22% 
 Sun, Feb 8 78 @Memphis L 65 - 76 15% 
 Sun, Feb 15 315 Texas San Antonio W 77 - 65 86% 
 Wed, Feb 18 81 @Tulsa L 69 - 80 16% 
 Sat, Feb 21 266 East Carolina W 74 - 66 78% 
 Wed, Feb 25 133 North Texas W 64 - 63 52% 
 Sun, Mar 1 106 @Florida Atlantic L 69 - 77 23% 
 Wed, Mar 4 113 UAB L 73 - 74 45% 
 Sun, Mar 8 89 @South Florida L 71 - 81 17% 
Totals 14 - 16 9 - 9 -1 +2 C+ C+ C -3 C C- D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 1.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 3.9 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.4 2.5 0.4 0.0 5.5 3rd
4th 0.1 2.2 4.4 1.0 0.0 7.7 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 5.8 2.3 0.1 9.3 5th
6th 0.4 5.1 5.5 0.4 11.4 6th
7th 0.2 3.1 7.4 1.8 0.0 12.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 7.4 4.0 0.2 13.2 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 5.9 5.9 0.7 0.0 13.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 4.0 5.2 1.3 0.0 11.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 2.3 3.4 1.0 0.1 7.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.5 0.0 2.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 13th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.3 4.2 8.9 13.8 18.3 18.3 15.7 10.0 5.9 2.4 0.7 0.2 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 84.4% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-4 70.5% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0
13-5 33.7% 0.8    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 5.9% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.8% 1.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.2% 6.3% 6.3% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 0.7% 8.6% 8.6% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
13-5 2.4% 8.6% 8.6% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.2
12-6 5.9% 5.8% 5.8% 13.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 5.6
11-7 10.0% 3.1% 3.1% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.7
10-8 15.7% 1.9% 1.9% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 15.4
9-9 18.3% 1.0% 1.0% 14.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 18.1
8-10 18.3% 0.4% 0.4% 15.6 0.0 0.0 18.2
7-11 13.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 13.7
6-12 8.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.9
5-13 4.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.2
4-14 1.3% 1.3
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 13.7 98.5 0.0%