Charlotte
American Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.6#193
Expected Predictive Rating-2.5#204
Pace62.3#341
Improvement-0.2#190

Offense
Total Offense+1.3#137
First Shot+0.4#161
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#122
Layup/Dunks+2.3#102
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#319
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#324
Freethrows+5.5#2
Improvement-0.4#211

Defense
Total Defense-2.9#267
First Shot+1.1#131
After Offensive Rebounds-4.0#361
Layups/Dunks-3.8#314
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#32
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#102
Freethrows+0.9#121
Improvement+0.2#164
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 1.2% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.5 14.2
.500 or above 24.4% 31.6% 12.5%
.500 or above in Conference 28.6% 36.9% 15.2%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.7% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 15.1% 9.4% 24.6%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round0.9% 1.1% 0.6%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tulane (Home) - 62.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 51 - 7
Quad 34 - 75 - 14
Quad 48 - 414 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 268   Presbyterian W 88-79 75%     1 - 0 +0.2 +22.5 -21.0
  Nov 09, 2024 47   @ Utah St. L 74-103 8%     1 - 1 -15.2 +8.2 -23.5
  Nov 13, 2024 216   Richmond W 65-48 66%     2 - 1 +11.1 -5.3 +17.9
  Nov 19, 2024 229   Gardner-Webb W 60-54 69%     3 - 1 -0.6 -11.4 +11.3
  Nov 23, 2024 336   LIU Brooklyn L 76-79 87%     3 - 2 -17.0 +1.8 -19.0
  Nov 27, 2024 142   East Tennessee St. L 55-75 52%     3 - 3 -22.1 -16.0 -7.2
  Dec 10, 2024 122   @ Davidson L 71-75 25%     3 - 4 +1.5 +18.0 -17.5
  Dec 14, 2024 272   @ Georgia St. W 77-63 55%     4 - 4 +11.1 +1.8 +9.0
  Dec 17, 2024 341   West Georgia W 75-70 88%     5 - 4 -9.3 +1.3 -10.2
  Dec 22, 2024 166   @ Hawaii L 61-78 34%     5 - 5 -14.4 -5.3 -10.2
  Dec 23, 2024 133   Murray St. W 94-90 2OT 38%     6 - 5 +5.6 +9.7 -4.5
  Dec 25, 2024 117   College of Charleston L 81-84 33%     6 - 6 -0.1 +6.0 -6.0
  Dec 31, 2024 202   Tulane W 72-69 62%    
  Jan 04, 2025 186   @ Rice L 66-69 38%    
  Jan 08, 2025 88   Florida Atlantic L 75-80 32%    
  Jan 11, 2025 239   @ Tulsa L 71-72 49%    
  Jan 14, 2025 101   @ Wichita St. L 68-77 19%    
  Jan 19, 2025 44   Memphis L 70-80 18%    
  Jan 22, 2025 169   South Florida W 73-71 57%    
  Jan 29, 2025 124   @ Temple L 67-74 26%    
  Feb 01, 2025 127   @ UAB L 73-80 27%    
  Feb 04, 2025 101   Wichita St. L 71-74 38%    
  Feb 08, 2025 186   Rice W 69-66 60%    
  Feb 10, 2025 88   @ Florida Atlantic L 72-83 16%    
  Feb 15, 2025 182   East Carolina W 69-67 59%    
  Feb 19, 2025 124   Temple L 70-71 47%    
  Feb 26, 2025 202   @ Tulane L 69-72 40%    
  Mar 02, 2025 182   @ East Carolina L 66-70 37%    
  Mar 06, 2025 85   @ North Texas L 57-68 15%    
  Mar 09, 2025 226   Texas San Antonio W 78-73 68%    
Projected Record 13 - 17 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.6 3rd
4th 0.3 2.0 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.3 3.5 1.0 0.1 7.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 4.6 1.7 0.1 0.0 8.3 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 5.1 3.2 0.4 0.0 9.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 4.4 4.9 0.8 0.0 10.5 8th
9th 0.3 3.0 6.1 1.8 0.1 11.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 2.2 6.2 3.1 0.2 11.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.7 5.2 3.9 0.5 0.0 11.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.6 4.3 3.6 0.8 0.0 10.7 12th
13th 0.1 0.6 1.8 2.9 2.2 0.6 0.0 8.3 13th
Total 0.1 0.6 2.1 4.7 8.4 12.0 14.3 15.2 13.9 11.2 8.0 4.9 2.6 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 91.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 59.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 35.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0
13-5 11.9% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 8.3% 8.3% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 17.4% 17.4% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.5% 10.4% 10.4% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.4
13-5 1.2% 7.4% 7.4% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1
12-6 2.6% 4.4% 4.4% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.5
11-7 4.9% 3.6% 3.6% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.8
10-8 8.0% 1.6% 1.6% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.8
9-9 11.2% 1.3% 1.3% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 11.1
8-10 13.9% 0.6% 0.6% 14.8 0.0 0.1 13.8
7-11 15.2% 0.5% 0.5% 15.6 0.0 0.0 15.2
6-12 14.3% 0.2% 0.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 14.3
5-13 12.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.0
4-14 8.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.4
3-15 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 4.7
2-16 2.1% 2.1
1-17 0.6% 0.6
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%