Charlotte
American Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.3#221
Expected Predictive Rating-5.3#249
Pace63.1#315
Improvement-1.1#239

Offense
Total Offense-1.2#211
First Shot-1.4#221
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#172
Layup/Dunks+2.0#109
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#322
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.2#328
Freethrows+4.5#3
Improvement-3.3#332

Defense
Total Defense-2.1#234
First Shot+1.3#136
After Offensive Rebounds-3.3#353
Layups/Dunks-3.7#315
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#24
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#100
Freethrows+0.7#131
Improvement+2.2#72
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.7 15.5
.500 or above 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.2% 0.5% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 60.5% 42.4% 74.3%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wichita St. (Home) - 43.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 50 - 6
Quad 32 - 103 - 17
Quad 48 - 411 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 283   Presbyterian W 88-79 72%     1 - 0 -0.2 +21.5 -20.4
  Nov 09, 2024 49   @ Utah St. L 74-103 8%     1 - 1 -16.3 +6.0 -22.5
  Nov 13, 2024 220   Richmond W 65-48 59%     2 - 1 +11.3 -3.5 +16.3
  Nov 19, 2024 236   Gardner-Webb W 60-54 64%     3 - 1 -0.9 -10.9 +10.5
  Nov 23, 2024 327   LIU Brooklyn L 76-79 81%     3 - 2 -15.7 +3.8 -19.6
  Nov 27, 2024 153   East Tennessee St. L 55-75 44%     3 - 3 -21.8 -15.8 -7.2
  Dec 10, 2024 126   @ Davidson L 71-75 23%     3 - 4 +0.6 +16.7 -17.1
  Dec 14, 2024 278   @ Georgia St. W 77-63 53%     4 - 4 +10.0 -1.3 +11.0
  Dec 17, 2024 345   West Georgia W 75-70 85%     5 - 4 -9.3 +0.9 -9.9
  Dec 22, 2024 180   @ Hawaii L 61-78 32%     5 - 5 -15.4 -6.4 -10.1
  Dec 23, 2024 171   Murray St. W 94-90 2OT 38%     6 - 5 +3.7 +8.1 -4.9
  Dec 25, 2024 131   College of Charleston L 81-84 32%     6 - 6 -1.3 +4.2 -5.3
  Dec 31, 2024 141   Tulane L 68-83 42%     6 - 7 0 - 1 -16.3 -9.7 -5.4
  Jan 04, 2025 192   @ Rice L 55-68 34%     6 - 8 0 - 2 -12.0 -5.4 -9.4
  Jan 08, 2025 106   Florida Atlantic L 64-75 31%     6 - 9 0 - 3 -9.3 -8.2 -1.5
  Jan 12, 2025 238   @ Tulsa L 63-69 45%     6 - 10 0 - 4 -8.0 +0.2 -9.2
  Jan 14, 2025 134   @ Wichita St. L 59-68 24%     6 - 11 0 - 5 -5.0 -8.1 +2.6
  Jan 19, 2025 41   Memphis L 68-77 13%     6 - 12 0 - 6 +0.2 -1.4 +1.8
  Jan 22, 2025 177   South Florida W 69-61 50%     7 - 12 1 - 6 +4.7 -1.6 +6.7
  Jan 29, 2025 125   @ Temple L 89-90 2OT 23%     7 - 13 1 - 7 +3.6 +1.9 +1.9
  Feb 01, 2025 96   @ UAB L 78-96 16%     7 - 14 1 - 8 -10.6 +9.3 -20.9
  Feb 04, 2025 134   Wichita St. L 70-72 43%    
  Feb 08, 2025 192   Rice W 69-68 55%    
  Feb 10, 2025 106   @ Florida Atlantic L 70-80 15%    
  Feb 15, 2025 150   East Carolina L 67-69 46%    
  Feb 19, 2025 125   Temple L 72-75 42%    
  Feb 26, 2025 141   @ Tulane L 65-72 25%    
  Mar 02, 2025 150   @ East Carolina L 65-72 26%    
  Mar 06, 2025 70   @ North Texas L 54-68 9%    
  Mar 09, 2025 202   Texas San Antonio W 75-74 57%    
Projected Record 10 - 20 4 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.1 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 5th
6th 0.2 0.1 0.3 6th
7th 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.0 0.5 3.1 8th
9th 0.5 3.3 1.8 0.2 5.8 9th
10th 0.3 4.0 5.4 0.5 10.2 10th
11th 0.2 4.0 9.9 2.7 0.1 16.8 11th
12th 0.2 4.2 12.5 6.2 0.4 23.6 12th
13th 2.3 10.1 16.7 9.4 0.9 0.0 39.5 13th
Total 2.3 10.3 21.1 26.2 21.4 12.4 4.7 1.4 0.2 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.2% 4.5% 4.5% 15.0 0.0 0.2
8-10 1.4% 1.5% 1.5% 15.0 0.0 1.3
7-11 4.7% 0.6% 0.6% 15.3 0.0 0.0 4.6
6-12 12.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.4
5-13 21.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 21.4
4-14 26.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 26.2
3-15 21.1% 21.1
2-16 10.3% 10.3
1-17 2.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.3
0-18
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.7 0.1 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.4%