Charlotte
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.9 174
Results Rating -0.3 164
Pace 61.7 345
Improvement -1.6 247

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 115 B C D+ C+ B
Defense D+ 262 C C- D+ C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 167 B- 63% 78 +2.0 106
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% 315 D+ 35% 286 -3.1 325
Three Pointers 47% 53 B 37% 73 +5.0 35
Shot Selection/Accuracy B +0.9 68 B- +2.9 84
1st FG Attempt B 1.10 71
Second Chance B- 33.7% 84 D 0.92 319 C 0.31 177
Turnovers D+ 18.7% 295
Freethrows B- 0.33 97 C- 71% 224 C+ 0.24 123
Total Offense C+ +2.0 115

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D 40% 300 A- 7.1% 23
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 19% 266 D 7.5% 313
Three Pointers C- 82% 240 D+ 1.4% 297
Total C- 54% 227 B 4.4% 54

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 218 C- 59% 215 -0.2 168
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 175 C+ 37% 125 -0.2 173
Three Pointers 42% 137 C 34% 168 +0.4 203
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.1 148 C +0.0 178
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 177
Second Chance C 29.8% 161 D 1.13 311 C- 0.34 247
Turnovers D+ 15.0% 289
Freethrows C- 0.33 246 B- 70% 83 C- 0.23 229
Total Defense D+ -2.9 262

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B+ 40% 35 B- 13.1% 87
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 25% 189 C+ 6.0% 102
Three Pointers C 84% 181 C 1.0% 135
Total B- 52% 98 C+ 6.6% 97

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.6 311 18.0 293
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 228 0.16 138
Improvement -1.1 #241 -0.5 #219

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 205 175 146
Results Rating Rank 232 165 135
Conference Record 8 - 10 9 - 9 11 - 7
Conference Finish 9 6 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 1% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.9 14.5
.500 or above 32% 50% 11%
.500 or above in Conference 82% 100% 62%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round1% 1% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: North Texas (Home) - 52.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 40 - 4
Quad 20 - 51 - 9
Quad 34 - 65 - 15
Quad 410 - 215 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 213 Indiana St. W 92 - 76 69% +9  87% 1 - 0 B +10 A+ +15 A- A+ A- D+ -5 C+ C- F+
 Fri, Nov 7 309 Tennessee Tech W 70 - 65 84% +10  96% 2 - 0 D+ -7 D- -7 B- A F C+ +0 C- F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 113 Davidson L 55 - 62 46% -8  1% 2 - 1 D+ -7 F+ -9 F+ F+ C+ C+ +0 D A B-
 Sun, Nov 16 57 @Virginia Tech L 76 - 84 10% -8  0% 2 - 2 B- +5 A- +11 B- A- A+ D- -7 A+ D+ F
 Fri, Nov 21 173 @Appalachian St. L 63 - 65 38% +2  67% 2 - 3 C +0 B- +5 D+ A F+ D -5 D- D C
 Thu, Nov 27 103 Illinois St. L 69 - 79 29% -8  1% 2 - 4 D+ -5 C+ +2 A+ F F D- -8 C- D- F
 Fri, Nov 28 130 Richmond L 66 - 71 39% -8  0% 2 - 5 C- -3 D -6 C F B+ B- +2 C C B
 Tue, Dec 2 273 N.C. A&T W 74 - 57 79% +17  98% 3 - 5 B- +8 C- -2 A B F A +10 A+ B C+
 Sun, Dec 7 28 Utah St. L 53 - 79 12% -11  24% 3 - 6 D- -14 F -14 F A+ F C- -2 B- A+ F
 Sun, Dec 14 149 @College of Charleston L 67 - 74 34% -3  25% 3 - 7 C- -4 D+ -3 C F+ D C -1 F+ D+ C+
 Thu, Dec 18 322 Lafayette W 81 - 67 87% +11  96% 4 - 7 C +1 A+ +15 A+ C- B F -12 D F D+
 Sun, Dec 21 109 Illinois-Chicago W 88 - 76 OT 44% -2  33% 5 - 7 B+ +13 A +13 B+ D B C -1 D A+ C
 Tue, Dec 30 156 Temple L 73 - 76 58% -5  8% 5 - 8 0 - 1 D+ -6 D+ -3 D+ C C- D+ -3 F B- B-
 Sat, Jan 3 97 Wichita St. W 104 - 100 2OT 37% -4  23% 6 - 8 1 - 1 B- +7 A+ +25 B+ A+ A F -18 D- F C
 Wed, Jan 7 334 @Texas San Antonio W 74 - 58 76% +9  86% 7 - 8 2 - 1 B- +8 C +1 D+ C+ D+ A- +8 B C+ F
 Sun, Jan 11 232 @Rice W 74 - 73 50% +5  79% 8 - 8 3 - 1 C +0 C+ +2 A+ F F C- -2 B- B+ D
 Wed, Jan 14 76 Tulsa L 74 - 86 30% -8  4% 8 - 9 3 - 2 D+ -7 C +1 B+ F A- F+ -9 F A B-
 Sun, Jan 18 246 @East Carolina W 73 - 70 53% +7  87% 9 - 9 4 - 2 C +1 C+ +3 A+ C F C- -2 C C+ F
 Fri, Jan 23 162 Tulane W 73 - 70 59% +5  71% 10 - 9 5 - 2 C -0 C- -1 A B- F C+ +1 C A D+
 Wed, Jan 28 156 @Temple W 80 - 76 OT 35% -2  26% 11 - 9 6 - 2 B- +7 A+ +21 A A+ B- F -13 C F D-
 Fri, Jan 30 232 Rice W 80 - 70 72% +6  88% 12 - 9 7 - 2 C+ +3 A- +11 A+ D D D -6 A+ F C-
 Wed, Feb 4 97 @Wichita St. L 64 - 74 19% -5  8% 12 - 10 7 - 3 C -1 D+ -2 B- F F C+ +0 D- A F
 Sun, Feb 8 101 @Memphis L 54 - 77 20% -15  0% 12 - 11 7 - 4 F+ -15 F -14 F+ C- D C- -2 B+ F F
 Sun, Feb 15 334 Texas San Antonio L 79 - 88 89% +4  69% 12 - 12 7 - 5 F -23 C+ +2 A- C F F -26 F F F
 Wed, Feb 18 76 @Tulsa L 74 - 79 14% -6  0% 12 - 13 7 - 6 B- +6 B- +5 A+ C- D C+ +0 C+ B B-
 Sat, Feb 21 246 East Carolina W 68 - 56 74% +7  98% 13 - 13 8 - 6 C+ +4 D -5 F+ D A A +10 A+ B+ B-
 Wed, Feb 25 137 North Texas W 66 - 65 53%
 Sun, Mar 1 116 @Florida Atlantic L 70 - 77 26%
 Wed, Mar 4 121 UAB L 73 - 74 48%
 Sun, Mar 8 58 @South Florida L 71 - 84 11%
Totals 14 - 16 9 - 9 -1 C+ +2 A B- B D+ -3 B C- C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ B- D+ B B- 39% 25% 47% B B B- D C D+ B- C- C+ D+ C- C+ C C 37% 21% 42% C C C D C- D+ C- B- C-
1.11 63% 35% 37% +3 +1 1.10 34% 0.9 .31 19% .33 71% .24 1.13 59% 37% 34% 0 0 1.02 30% 1.1 .34 15% .33 70% .23
Nov
3		 Indiana St. A+ B- F A+ B 51% 12% 37% A A- A+ C+ A+ A- A+ D- A+ D+ D+ C B C+ 44% 10% 46% C+ C+ B- F C- F+ F D F
1.33 62% 0% 47% +5 +2 1.16 53% 1.0 .53 12% .49 67% .33 1.10 65% 40% 29% 0 +2 1.06 23% 1.3 .29 14% .36 71% .25
Nov
7		 Tennessee Tech D- C+ F+ A+ B 33% 25% 43% D B- B+ A A F A+ D- A+ C+ C+ A+ D C 51% 21% 28% F+ C- D+ F F A+ F A+ D
1.07 62% 30% 47% +7 -1 1.15 37% 1.4 .52 29% .43 70% .30 0.99 55% 25% 36% -3 +1 0.97 32% 1.7 .55 26% .51 48% .25
Nov
11		 Davidson F+ D- F D F 40% 16% 44% A- F+ A F F+ C+ A+ F B- C+ B+ F F D- 29% 21% 50% B- D A+ B- A B- B- C- B-
0.95 50% 14% 30% -10 +1 0.84 39% 0.5 .20 17% .42 55% .23 1.07 50% 56% 43% +8 -1 1.17 20% 1.0 .20 19% .25 67% .17
Nov
16		 Virginia Tech A- D+ A+ C B 31% 29% 40% D B- A+ D+ A- A+ A+ F A+ D- C- A+ C- A+ 23% 23% 53% A- A+ F+ B- D+ F F F F
1.15 53% 50% 32% +1 -2 1.00 43% 0.9 .40 12% .41 63% .26 1.27 64% 0% 36% -6 -1 0.87 39% 1.1 .41 9% .60 83% .50
Nov
21		 Appalachian St. B- C- F F D- 49% 9% 42% A D+ A+ B- A F+ D F D- D C+ D- D- F+ 35% 18% 48% C+ D- C F D C F C- F
1.11 55% 25% 26% -8 +2 0.91 42% 1.0 .42 18% .24 64% .15 1.15 57% 43% 37% +3 0 1.08 30% 1.2 .37 16% .48 65% .32
Nov
27		 Illinois St. C+ B- F A+ A+ 36% 25% 39% C+ A+ B- F F F A+ F A D- B- F C- C 41% 15% 43% D- C- D+ D- D- F F B- F
1.05 63% 27% 53% +10 -1 1.20 29% 0.3 .09 21% .44 61% .27 1.20 58% 57% 35% +3 +1 1.11 30% 1.2 .37 11% .53 68% .36
Nov
28		 Richmond D A+ C+ F C- 33% 11% 56% A C F F+ F B+ A+ D A B- C C D+ C+ 36% 19% 45% F C D B+ C B F A+ F
1.00 73% 40% 24% -3 +1 0.98 18% 1.0 .18 14% .42 67% .28 1.08 60% 38% 37% +3 0 1.07 29% 0.9 .26 17% .62 59% .37
Dec
2		 N.C. A&T C- A+ F A+ A 41% 11% 48% B A B- B B F B+ C- B A B+ C- A+ A+ 34% 24% 41% C- A+ A D+ B C+ F A+ F
1.13 72% 20% 43% +10 +1 1.25 31% 1.1 .35 20% .36 68% .25 0.87 50% 40% 18% -12 -1 0.76 23% 1.1 .27 20% .55 66% .36
Dec
7		 Utah St. F D F F F 20% 20% 60% D+ F A- A+ A+ F A+ F C+ C- F A+ A+ B 48% 10% 42% D+ B- A- A+ A+ F C F D-
0.82 50% 25% 21% -16 -1 0.68 39% 1.3 .50 29% .44 55% .24 1.22 79% 20% 24% +2 +2 1.10 30% 0.9 .27 9% .32 84% .27
Dec
14		 College of Charleston D+ A+ C+ F C 28% 16% 56% B- C D+ F F+ D C+ A+ B+ C F+ F B F 40% 26% 34% C+ F+ B F D+ C+ B+ A+ A
0.98 79% 38% 25% -2 0 0.98 27% 0.7 .18 16% .25 86% .21 1.09 70% 46% 29% +5 -1 1.10 26% 1.4 .35 18% .29 63% .18
Dec
18		 Lafayette A+ D D A+ A+ 27% 13% 60% B- A+ D- A- C- B F A+ F+ F F+ A+ F+ D- 29% 20% 51% A- D F D F D+ A+ A+ A+
1.37 54% 33% 55% +17 0 1.38 26% 1.3 .33 12% .17 89% .15 1.13 67% 10% 38% 0 -1 1.02 35% 1.0 .35 15% .08 50% .04
Dec
21		 Illinois-Chicago A C- C- A- B 45% 12% 43% B+ B+ A+ F D B A+ A+ A+ C A+ F F D 42% 19% 38% D+ D C- A+ A+ C D A- C-
1.23 55% 33% 38% 0 +2 1.06 47% 0.6 .26 18% .60 86% .51 1.07 41% 50% 45% +1 0 1.06 37% 0.6 .23 18% .36 67% .24
Dec
30		 Temple D+ B- F F D 51% 15% 34% A- D+ C- B- C C- A+ A+ A+ D+ D+ B F F+ 54% 19% 27% F F A+ F B- B- D- A+ C+
1.08 63% 29% 25% -4 +2 0.98 28% 1.1 .31 16% .49 86% .42 1.12 62% 33% 46% +6 +1 1.17 18% 1.4 .25 15% .41 63% .26
Jan
3		 Wichita St. A+ D A+ B B- 39% 16% 45% A B+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ A A+ F F+ A- D D- 42% 18% 40% D+ D- F F F C D+ F F
1.39 50% 56% 36% +1 +1 1.05 45% 1.4 .63 12% .58 76% .44 1.34 65% 30% 36% +3 +1 1.09 56% 1.3 .73 15% .35 82% .28
Jan
7		 Texas San Antonio C A- D F D- 39% 6% 55% B+ D+ B D+ C+ D+ C+ D- C A- A+ F B- B+ 37% 12% 52% D- B A+ F C+ F B A+ A-
1.15 68% 33% 26% -3 +2 1.00 42% 1.0 .42 17% .28 67% .19 0.90 32% 50% 30% -12 +1 0.81 20% 1.3 .25 12% .21 58% .12
Jan
11		 Rice C+ A+ C+ A+ A+ 31% 21% 49% B A+ D- F F F A+ F A C- D B- C+ C 18% 41% 41% A+ B- F A+ B+ D F F F
1.15 83% 38% 47% +17 -1 1.36 27% 0.6 .17 20% .52 59% .31 1.13 63% 33% 33% -2 -4 0.91 43% 0.6 .26 15% .55 80% .44
Jan
14		 Tulsa C C+ A+ C+ B+ 46% 14% 40% B+ B+ F F F A- C+ A+ A- F+ C+ F F F 56% 8% 35% D- F F A+ A B- F+ D+ F+
1.11 61% 57% 35% +5 +1 1.14 17% 0.4 .07 12% .29 88% .26 1.29 56% 50% 53% +10 +3 1.27 39% 0.7 .29 16% .39 82% .32
Jan
18		 East Carolina C+ D+ A+ A+ A 51% 5% 44% A+ A+ C C+ C F C+ A+ B C- C C+ B C- 44% 31% 25% C+ C A+ F C+ F B+ B B+
1.11 55% 100% 47% +10 +3 1.28 30% 1.2 .35 27% .27 85% .23 1.06 54% 35% 29% -5 -1 0.91 23% 1.3 .30 8% .30 67% .20
Jan
23		 Tulane C- A+ F C+ A 45% 9% 45% A A B- C+ B- F B- B- B C+ D F A+ C 36% 23% 40% B- C A+ F A D+ D F+ F+
1.07 80% 0% 35% +7 +2 1.20 37% 1.0 .37 25% .35 72% .26 1.03 65% 55% 21% -2 -1 0.98 7% 2.0 .14 13% .41 83% .34
Jan
28		 Temple A+ A F A+ A 39% 14% 48% B A A+ C+ A+ B- A+ D- A+ F F F A+ C- 27% 24% 49% B+ C F F F D- F F F
1.38 71% 17% 43% +8 +1 1.20 52% 1.1 .55 14% .56 68% .38 1.31 73% 50% 25% 0 -1 1.00 37% 1.2 .44 10% .56 93% .52
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
30		 Rice A- C+ A A+ A+ 28% 33% 38% D A+ B F D D A+ C+ A+ D B+ B- A+ A+ 8% 38% 54% A+ A+ F F F C- F D+ F
1.31 64% 46% 53% +15 -2 1.28 38% 0.7 .28 18% .64 75% .48 1.15 50% 33% 23% -11 -4 0.71 54% 1.3 .71 16% .41 71% .29
Feb
4		 Wichita St. D+ D+ B B+ B 35% 33% 33% C- B- C F F F C B- C C+ D F C F+ 43% 20% 37% C- D- A+ B A F F A+ B-
0.96 53% 44% 38% +2 -2 1.02 28% 0.4 .11 23% .27 71% .19 1.11 62% 50% 33% +4 0 1.10 29% 0.9 .26 9% .40 50% .20
Feb
8		 Memphis F D+ A+ F F+ 22% 22% 56% D F+ F A+ C- D F F F C- C- B+ A- B 34% 32% 34% A- B+ B F F F C C C
0.78 55% 55% 18% -11 -1 0.78 22% 1.3 .27 23% .17 56% .09 1.11 61% 29% 28% -5 -2 0.89 33% 1.8 .61 14% .30 72% .22
Feb
15		 Texas San Antonio C+ A+ F A A 33% 8% 59% B- A- C- C C F D+ F F+ F D- A+ C- F 47% 15% 38% F F D+ F F F F+ F F
1.20 75% 0% 41% +9 +1 1.22 35% 1.1 .39 20% .25 54% .13 1.34 62% 25% 33% -1 +1 1.04 32% 1.5 .48 5% .32 90% .29
Feb
18		 Tulsa B- A+ F+ A+ A+ 33% 14% 53% C+ A+ D+ B- C- D F A+ F C+ B+ A+ F+ C 24% 6% 69% B C+ B- B- B B- C A B-
1.13 75% 29% 42% +11 0 1.24 23% 1.2 .27 18% .15 88% .13 1.20 50% 0% 41% +3 +1 1.10 29% 1.2 .35 17% .33 72% .24
Feb
21		 East Carolina D C- F F F 44% 13% 42% A- F+ B F D A C+ D- C A C+ A- A+ A+ 31% 35% 33% A A+ B A- B+ B- F A+ D+
1.04 57% 14% 27% -8 +1 0.88 35% 0.8 .28 12% .28 69% .19 0.86 53% 29% 13% -15 -2 0.67 29% 0.8 .24 18% .43 61% .26



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.2 0.4 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.6 0.4 3.2 3rd
4th 0.0 8.8 6.4 0.1 15.3 4th
5th 1.4 16.5 0.9 18.8 5th
6th 0.0 10.2 5.8 0.0 16.0 6th
7th 0.2 18.5 0.5 19.2 7th
8th 3.6 8.3 0.0 11.9 8th
9th 9.7 0.9 10.6 9th
10th 4.2 4.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 17.8 39.4 31.8 10.2 0.9 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 3.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.9% 6.2% 6.2% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.8
11-7 10.2% 3.1% 3.1% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 9.9
10-8 31.8% 1.4% 1.4% 14.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 31.4
9-9 39.4% 0.5% 0.5% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 39.1
8-10 17.8% 0.5% 0.5% 15.6 0.0 0.1 17.7
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 14.0 98.9 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%
Lose Out 11.0%