Charlotte
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.1 #157
Expected Predictive Rating +1.1 #144
Pace 61.2 #350
Improvement +1.4 #130

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #98 B C D+ B B
Defense #271 C C- D+ C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #146 1.26 #78 +2.7 #94
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #321 0.67 #310 -3.3 #333
Three Pointers 47% #62 1.11 #53 +5.3 #34
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #57 +4.7 #57
Freethrows 0.35 #39 72% #218 0.25 #62
Second Chance 34.9% #67 0.93 #298 0.33 #144
Turnovers 18.1% #272
Total Offense +3.0 #98

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #214 1.18 #209 +0.1 #170
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #181 0.76 #191 +0.0 #187
Three Pointers 42% #151 1.01 #167 -0.3 #193
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #185 -0.1 #186
Freethrows 0.32 #250 71% #107 0.23 #226
Second Chance 30.9% #188 1.08 #267 0.33 #238
Turnovers 14.8% #293
Total Defense -3.1 #271

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.0% #57 -0.1% #162
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 7.0% #70 0.4% #197
Possession Length 18.5 #305 18.1 #304
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #230 0.16 #142
Improvement +2.1 #75 -0.7 #232

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.3% 3.9% 1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 12.9 13.4
.500 or above 72.1% 90.6% 66.7%
.500 or above in Conference 96.1% 99.8% 95.1%
Conference Champion 5.8% 14.6% 3.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round2.3% 3.9% 1.9%
Second Round0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wichita St. (Away) - 22.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 21 - 51 - 8
Quad 34 - 66 - 14
Quad 411 - 116 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 198 Indiana St. W 92 - 76 70% +9  1 - 0 +11 +18 A- A+ B+ -8 C D+ F+
 Fri, Nov 7 333 Tennessee Tech W 70 - 65 89% +10  2 - 0 -9 -5 B- A- F -4 D+ F A
 Tue, Nov 11 117 Davidson L 55 - 62 49% -8  2 - 1 -7 -6 D- D- B- -3 D+ A C+
 Sun, Nov 16 60 @Virginia Tech L 76 - 84 13% -8  2 - 2 +4 +14 B- B+ A+ -10 A+ D+ F
 Fri, Nov 21 172 @Appalachian St. L 63 - 65 42% +2  2 - 3 -0 +8 D+ A- D- -9 D D- C-
 Thu, Nov 27 87 Illinois St. L 69 - 79 27% -8  2 - 4 -4 +5 A+ F F+ -9 C- D+ F
 Fri, Nov 28 136 Richmond L 66 - 71 44% -8  2 - 5 -3 -3 C F B -1 C C B-
 Tue, Dec 2 281 N.C. A&T W 74 - 57 82% +17  3 - 5 +7 +1 A B F +7 A+ B+ C+
 Sun, Dec 7 38 Utah St. L 53 - 79 16% -11  3 - 6 -15 -11 F A+ F -7 C A+ F
 Sun, Dec 14 152 @College of Charleston L 67 - 74 37% -3  3 - 7 -4 -2 C F D- -2 D- D+ C+
 Thu, Dec 18 310 Lafayette W 81 - 67 86% +11  4 - 7 +2 +18 A+ C- B -13 D+ F+ D+
 Sun, Dec 21 135 Illinois-Chicago W 88 - 76 OT 55% -2  5 - 7 +11 +14 B D- B -4 D A+ C
 Tue, Dec 30 143 Temple L 73 - 76 57% -5  5 - 8 0 - 1 -5 +0 C- C C- -5 F+ B- C+
 Sat, Jan 3 99 Wichita St. W 104 - 100 2OT 43% -4  6 - 8 1 - 1 +6 +25 B A+ A -20 D- F C
 Wed, Jan 7 342 @Texas San Antonio W 74 - 58 79% +9  7 - 8 2 - 1 +7 +4 D+ C+ D+ +4 B- C F
 Sun, Jan 11 233 @Rice W 74 - 73 54% +5  8 - 8 3 - 1 -0 +5 A+ F D- -5 B- B D
 Wed, Jan 14 69 Tulsa L 74 - 86 31% -8  8 - 9 3 - 2 -7 +3 B+ F A- -10 D- A+ B
 Sun, Jan 18 247 @East Carolina W 73 - 70 57% +7  9 - 9 4 - 2 +1 +6 A+ C F -5 C C+ F
 Fri, Jan 23 171 Tulane W 73 - 70 64% +5  10 - 9 5 - 2 -1 -0 A C F -1 C A- C-
 Wed, Jan 28 143 @Temple W 80 - 76 OT 34% -2  11 - 9 6 - 2 +8 +24 A A+ B -15 C+ F D-
 Fri, Jan 30 233 Rice W 80 - 70 75% +6  12 - 9 7 - 2 +3 +14 A+ D+ C- -9 A+ F D+
 Wed, Feb 4 99 @Wichita St. L 67 - 75 22%
 Sun, Feb 8 96 @Memphis L 67 - 76 21%
 Sun, Feb 15 342 Texas San Antonio W 81 - 66 92%
 Wed, Feb 18 69 @Tulsa L 72 - 83 15%
 Sat, Feb 21 247 East Carolina W 75 - 67 77%
 Wed, Feb 25 147 North Texas W 66 - 64 58%
 Sun, Mar 1 109 @Florida Atlantic L 72 - 79 26%
 Wed, Mar 4 120 UAB W 75 - 74 49%
 Sun, Mar 8 70 @South Florida L 72 - 83 15%
Totals 16 - 14 11 - 7 +0 +3 B C D+ -3 C C- D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 2.9 1.5 0.4 0.0 5.8 1st
2nd 1.0 7.4 4.2 0.4 13.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 7.4 8.1 0.6 16.3 3rd
4th 2.7 12.2 1.7 16.6 4th
5th 0.2 8.8 6.2 0.1 15.3 5th
6th 0.0 2.5 10.3 0.9 13.7 6th
7th 0.2 6.4 3.8 0.1 10.5 7th
8th 0.0 1.7 4.3 0.3 6.3 8th
9th 0.1 1.4 0.6 2.1 9th
10th 0.2 0.2 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.4 3.5 14.0 26.2 27.7 18.3 7.6 1.9 0.4 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
14-4 79.8% 1.5    0.9 0.6 0.1
13-5 37.7% 2.9    0.6 1.4 0.8 0.1 0.0
12-6 5.0% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.8% 5.8 1.9 2.1 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.4% 13.8% 13.8% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
14-4 1.9% 10.9% 10.9% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.7
13-5 7.6% 5.7% 5.7% 12.8 0.1 0.3 0.0 7.2
12-6 18.3% 3.8% 3.8% 13.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 17.6
11-7 27.7% 2.5% 2.5% 13.5 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.0 27.0
10-8 26.2% 0.6% 0.6% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 26.1
9-9 14.0% 0.6% 0.6% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 13.9
8-10 3.5% 0.3% 0.3% 15.0 0.0 3.5
7-11 0.4% 0.4
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 13.2 97.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%