Dayton
Atlantic 10
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.3#80
Expected Predictive Rating+8.6#65
Pace63.7#304
Improvement-6.2#352

Offense
Total Offense+6.0#46
First Shot+5.4#49
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#143
Layup/Dunks+3.8#54
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#212
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#154
Freethrows+1.6#86
Improvement-3.4#335

Defense
Total Defense+1.4#137
First Shot+1.0#144
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#143
Layups/Dunks+3.6#58
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#340
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#157
Freethrows-0.8#244
Improvement-2.8#318
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.1% 14.2% 9.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.2% 1.4% 0.6%
Average Seed 11.0 11.0 11.3
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.5%
.500 or above in Conference 93.0% 96.3% 81.4%
Conference Champion 3.0% 3.6% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four1.0% 1.1% 0.5%
First Round12.5% 13.5% 8.8%
Second Round3.2% 3.4% 2.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.8% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Davidson (Home) - 78.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 11 - 1
Quad 1b2 - 32 - 3
Quad 24 - 46 - 8
Quad 38 - 314 - 11
Quad 47 - 021 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 336   St. Francis (PA) W 87-57 97%     1 - 0 +16.0 +7.2 +8.6
  Nov 09, 2024 56   Northwestern W 71-66 50%     2 - 0 +12.4 +3.7 +8.7
  Nov 13, 2024 255   Ball St. W 77-69 92%     3 - 0 +0.0 -2.5 +2.5
  Nov 20, 2024 166   New Mexico St. W 74-53 82%     4 - 0 +18.5 +13.2 +8.5
  Nov 25, 2024 36   North Carolina L 90-92 30%     4 - 1 +10.7 +14.2 -3.3
  Nov 26, 2024 8   Iowa St. L 84-89 16%     4 - 2 +13.0 +22.9 -10.0
  Nov 27, 2024 24   Connecticut W 85-67 23%     5 - 2 +33.0 +22.5 +11.9
  Dec 03, 2024 306   Western Michigan W 77-69 94%     6 - 2 -2.8 +12.7 -14.1
  Dec 07, 2024 267   Lehigh W 86-62 92%     7 - 2 +15.6 +19.1 -0.9
  Dec 14, 2024 21   Marquette W 71-63 28%     8 - 2 +21.3 +14.4 +7.9
  Dec 17, 2024 101   UNLV W 66-65 69%     9 - 2 +3.1 +5.5 -2.2
  Dec 20, 2024 59   Cincinnati L 59-66 41%     9 - 3 +2.7 +0.6 +1.4
  Dec 31, 2024 193   La Salle W 84-70 85%     10 - 3 1 - 0 +10.0 +1.5 +7.0
  Jan 04, 2025 124   @ George Washington L 62-82 60%     10 - 4 1 - 1 -15.4 -6.1 -10.0
  Jan 08, 2025 152   @ Massachusetts L 72-76 66%     10 - 5 1 - 2 -0.8 +2.5 -3.3
  Jan 15, 2025 81   George Mason L 59-67 60%     10 - 6 1 - 3 -3.2 +4.1 -8.8
  Jan 18, 2025 128   Loyola Chicago W 83-81 OT 78%     11 - 6 2 - 3 +1.4 +6.6 -5.3
  Jan 21, 2025 142   @ Duquesne W 82-62 64%     12 - 6 3 - 3 +23.7 +19.1 +6.1
  Jan 24, 2025 86   Saint Joseph's W 77-72 62%     13 - 6 4 - 3 +9.2 +11.6 -2.2
  Jan 28, 2025 95   @ St. Bonaventure L 53-75 48%     13 - 7 4 - 4 -14.2 -3.6 -15.8
  Jan 31, 2025 105   @ Saint Louis W 71-63 52%     14 - 7 5 - 4 +14.8 +5.1 +10.1
  Feb 04, 2025 126   Davidson W 76-68 78%    
  Feb 07, 2025 38   Virginia Commonwealth L 69-71 44%    
  Feb 12, 2025 191   @ Fordham W 77-71 71%    
  Feb 15, 2025 142   Duquesne W 72-63 80%    
  Feb 21, 2025 128   @ Loyola Chicago W 72-69 58%    
  Feb 26, 2025 121   @ Rhode Island W 76-73 58%    
  Mar 01, 2025 220   Richmond W 75-62 89%    
  Mar 04, 2025 105   Saint Louis W 75-70 71%    
  Mar 07, 2025 38   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 66-73 24%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.4 1.5 3.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.7 4.7 0.8 9.5 2nd
3rd 0.7 8.0 12.3 2.7 23.7 3rd
4th 0.1 4.6 12.8 4.2 0.2 21.9 4th
5th 1.0 10.2 4.6 0.2 16.0 5th
6th 0.1 4.5 5.9 0.3 10.8 6th
7th 0.6 4.9 0.9 6.5 7th
8th 1.8 2.0 0.0 3.8 8th
9th 0.2 2.0 0.3 2.5 9th
10th 0.3 0.9 0.0 1.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.6 11th
12th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 15th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.2 5.6 12.9 22.4 26.1 20.5 8.9 2.2 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 65.3% 1.5    0.5 0.7 0.2
13-5 15.5% 1.4    0.2 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
12-6 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.0% 3.0 0.7 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 2.2% 45.0% 30.2% 14.9% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 1.2 21.3%
13-5 8.9% 24.4% 20.9% 3.5% 10.8 0.1 0.4 1.6 0.1 6.8 4.4%
12-6 20.5% 18.6% 17.1% 1.5% 11.1 0.2 3.0 0.6 16.6 1.8%
11-7 26.1% 13.1% 12.7% 0.4% 11.3 0.0 2.4 1.0 22.7 0.5%
10-8 22.4% 8.4% 8.3% 0.1% 11.4 0.0 1.0 0.8 0.0 20.5 0.1%
9-9 12.9% 5.0% 5.0% 11.5 0.4 0.3 12.2
8-10 5.6% 2.7% 2.7% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.4
7-11 1.2% 1.7% 1.7% 12.0 0.0 1.1
6-12 0.3% 0.3
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 13.1% 12.0% 1.1% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.0 8.6 3.0 0.0 86.9 1.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 8.8 1.5 1.5 16.4 16.4 32.8 25.4 6.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 25.6% 10.4 2.3 11.6 11.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7% 21.1% 10.7 7.0 14.1