Dayton
Atlantic 10
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +7.8 #75
Expected Predictive Rating +9.5 #65
Pace 68.7 #201
Improvement +1.1 #119

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #117 C C B A+ B+
Defense #42 C C+ A+ B+ B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #60 1.31 #42 +6.3 #19
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #303 0.53 #361 -3.8 #343
Three Pointers 42% #161 0.92 #291 -1.4 #235
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #151 +1.0 #152
Freethrows 23.2 #6 74% #135 17.2 #5
Second Chance 27.2% #276 1.19 #41 0.32 #166
Turnovers 15.0% #79
Total Offense +2.0 #117

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #291 1.11 #123 +3.1 #78
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #44 0.70 #113 -1.4 #280
Three Pointers 40% #222 1.14 #329 -1.9 #258
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #178 -0.1 #177
Freethrows 14.6 #48 70% #72 10.1 #329
Second Chance 31.0% #193 0.96 #84 0.30 #129
Turnovers 23.6% #2
Total Defense +5.8 #42

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.3% #49 -2.0% #40
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.3% #178 2.3% #225
Possession Length 16.6 #116 17.9 #287
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #81 0.14 #90
Improvement -1.8 #291 +2.9 #35

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.4% 14.5% 9.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.9% 3.9% 1.4%
Average Seed 10.9 10.8 11.1
.500 or above 99.7% 99.9% 99.2%
.500 or above in Conference 95.1% 98.0% 90.6%
Conference Champion 9.4% 12.6% 4.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four1.9% 2.5% 1.1%
First Round11.3% 13.2% 8.4%
Second Round3.2% 4.0% 2.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Duquesne (Away) - 60.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 5
Quad 24 - 35 - 8
Quad 38 - 213 - 11
Quad 49 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 331 Canisius W 88 - 48 97%  +21  1 - 0 +26 +19 B+ A+ A+ +11 B C- A+
 Sat, Nov 8 267 Maryland Baltimore Co. W 77 - 71 93%  +4  2 - 0 -3 +3 C+ B C- -6 C- F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 58 @Cincinnati L 62 - 74 33%  -9  2 - 1 +0 -8 F F A+ +10 F A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 278 Bethune-Cookman W 91 - 82 94%  +6  3 - 1 -1 +14 A+ B- F -15 C F D+
 Wed, Nov 19 110 @Marquette W 77 - 71 OT 52%  +5  4 - 1 +13 -0 A+ C F +13 B- B+ A+
 Sat, Nov 22 347 NC Central W 74 - 55 97%  +19  5 - 1 +4 -0 D- D+ A+ +5 A+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 27 103 Georgetown W 84 - 79 OT 61%  +7  6 - 1 +10 +7 C C C+ +3 F A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 8 BYU L 79 - 83 12%  +0  6 - 2 +16 +10 A+ D- C +6 C A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 2 128 East Tennessee St. W 88 - 71 80%  +10  7 - 2 +16 +9 A+ B- C- +6 C- C A+
 Sat, Dec 6 22 Virginia L 73 - 86 22%  -2  7 - 3 +3 +3 B F A +0 F C A+
 Sat, Dec 13 350 North Florida W 84 - 61 98%  +21  8 - 3 +7 +1 A- F C+ +6 A+ D A-
 Tue, Dec 16 111 Florida St. W 97 - 69 73%  +13  9 - 3 +29 +14 B- C- A+ +12 B A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 20 99 Liberty L 61 - 64 71%  +2  9 - 4 -1 -2 D- D- C +1 C A+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 203 Fordham W 63 - 56 89%  +5  10 - 4 1 - 0 +2 -4 F A+ B- +6 C+ A A+
 Sat, Jan 3 251 @Loyola Chicago W 70 - 68 82%  -6  11 - 4 2 - 0 -0 -2 F C- A- +2 D- C+ A+
 Tue, Jan 6 70 George Washington W 79 - 72 60%  -1  12 - 4 3 - 0 +12 +6 F A+ B- +6 C C A+
 Tue, Jan 13 129 @Duquesne W 79 - 76 61% 
 Fri, Jan 16 251 Loyola Chicago W 79 - 63 93% 
 Wed, Jan 21 217 @La Salle W 73 - 65 77% 
 Sat, Jan 24 185 @Saint Joseph's W 74 - 67 72% 
 Tue, Jan 27 141 Rhode Island W 74 - 64 82% 
 Fri, Jan 30 29 @Saint Louis L 71 - 81 19% 
 Tue, Feb 3 119 St. Bonaventure W 76 - 68 77% 
 Fri, Feb 6 49 @Virginia Commonwealth L 71 - 77 28% 
 Sun, Feb 15 125 Davidson W 73 - 64 79% 
 Wed, Feb 18 92 @George Mason L 69 - 70 45% 
 Sat, Feb 21 129 Duquesne W 82 - 73 79% 
 Tue, Feb 24 29 Saint Louis L 74 - 78 37% 
 Fri, Feb 27 70 @George Washington L 75 - 79 36% 
 Tue, Mar 3 115 @Richmond W 75 - 74 54% 
 Fri, Mar 6 49 Virginia Commonwealth L 74 - 75 50% 
Totals 21 - 10 12 - 6 +8 +2 C C B +6 C C+ A+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.7 2.3 0.7 0.1 9.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.4 6.0 7.5 3.0 0.3 18.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 7.6 8.3 2.2 0.1 19.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 6.9 8.3 2.3 0.1 18.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 4.7 6.6 1.9 0.1 14.0 5th
6th 0.2 2.8 4.6 1.5 0.1 9.3 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 3.1 1.3 0.1 5.5 7th
8th 0.3 1.3 1.0 0.1 2.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 3.3 7.7 12.1 16.7 19.2 17.2 11.9 6.9 2.6 0.7 0.1 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.7    0.6 0.0
16-2 87.7% 2.3    1.7 0.7 0.0
15-3 54.3% 3.7    1.6 1.8 0.4 0.0
14-4 17.6% 2.1    0.4 1.0 0.6 0.1
13-5 2.5% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.4% 9.4 4.4 3.6 1.2 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 88.0% 24.0% 64.0% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 84.2%
17-1 0.7% 64.4% 25.0% 39.4% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 52.5%
16-2 2.6% 46.8% 25.2% 21.6% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.0 1.4 28.9%
15-3 6.9% 30.8% 19.0% 11.9% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 0.0 4.7 14.7%
14-4 11.9% 20.6% 16.5% 4.1% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.0 0.2 9.4 4.9%
13-5 17.2% 14.4% 12.5% 1.9% 11.1 0.0 0.1 2.0 0.3 14.7 2.2%
12-6 19.2% 9.1% 8.7% 0.4% 11.2 0.0 1.3 0.5 17.5 0.4%
11-7 16.7% 6.3% 6.3% 0.1% 11.4 0.7 0.4 0.0 15.7 0.1%
10-8 12.1% 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 11.6 0.2 0.3 0.0 11.6 0.0%
9-9 7.7% 2.7% 2.7% 11.9 0.0 0.2 0.0 7.5
8-10 3.3% 2.8% 2.8% 12.3 0.1 0.0 3.2
7-11 1.3% 0.8% 0.8% 12.0 0.0 1.2
6-12 0.3% 1.5% 1.5% 14.0 0.0 0.3
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 12.4% 9.7% 2.6% 10.9 87.6 2.9%