Dayton
Atlantic 10
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +6.7 87
Results Rating +7.7 80
Pace 68.8 172
Improvement -2.0 260

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 116 C+ C+ C A+ B
Defense B 55 C+ C+ A C B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 36 B 63% 76 +5.6 22
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% 289 F 29% 363 -3.7 343
Three Pointers 41% 170 C- 33% 226 -0.4 193
Shot Selection/Accuracy B +1.2 35 C +0.1 166
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.05 130
Second Chance C- 28.8% 225 B+ 1.18 27 C+ 0.34 109
Turnovers C 16.9% 179
Freethrows A+ 0.41 2 B 76% 68 A+ 0.31 1
Total Offense C+ +1.9 116

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B 57% 56 B- 9.3% 93
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 13% 339 F 12.4% 363
Three Pointers C+ 85% 164 B- 0.5% 81
Total B 61% 65 C- 6.1% 235

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 270 B 53% 62 -3.4 70
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% 57 B- 36% 100 +1.2 284
Three Pointers 39% 229 D 37% 293 +0.7 219
Shot Selection/Accuracy B -0.7 61 C+ -0.8 150
1st FG Attempt C+ 0.99 125
Second Chance C+ 29.1% 131 C+ 1.00 141 C+ 0.29 120
Turnovers A 21.9% 9
Freethrows C 0.30 186 C+ 71% 107 C 0.22 168
Total Defense B +4.7 55

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 45% 123 B+ 15.7% 40
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 22% 108 B- 6.5% 81
Three Pointers A- 76% 22 A 2.5% 14
Total B- 51% 84 B+ 8.2% 29

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.0 137 17.5 222
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 88 0.15 111
Improvement -0.6 #224 -1.4 #271

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 99 85 66
Results Rating Rank 96 79 60
Conference Record 9 - 9 11 - 7 12 - 6
Conference Finish 7 4 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 12
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5% 9% 4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1% 2% 0%
Average Seed 11.4 11.2 11.5
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four1% 1% 0%
First Round5% 8% 4%
Second Round1% 1% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Saint Louis (Home) - 26.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 6
Quad 25 - 25 - 8
Quad 37 - 412 - 12
Quad 48 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 344 Canisius W 88 - 48 97% +21  99% 1 - 0 A+ +25 A+ +17 B- A+ A+ A+ +12 B D- A+
 Sat, Nov 8 234 Maryland Baltimore Co. W 77 - 71 89% +4  79% 2 - 0 C -1 C+ +3 C+ B+ C- D+ -4 C- F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 43 @Cincinnati L 62 - 74 20% -9  0% 2 - 1 C+ +3 F+ -10 F D- A- A+ +15 D- A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 240 Bethune-Cookman W 91 - 82 90% +6  78% 3 - 1 C+ +2 A+ +16 A+ B F+ F -14 C- F F+
 Wed, Nov 19 88 @Marquette W 77 - 71 OT 39% +5  83% 4 - 1 A- +15 D+ -4 A C F A+ +18 A- B+ A+
 Sat, Nov 22 352 NC Central W 74 - 55 98% +19  88% 5 - 1 C+ +2 D -6 F D+ A+ A +9 A+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 27 71 Georgetown W 84 - 79 OT 45% +7  87% 6 - 1 B+ +13 B +6 B- B- C B+ +6 D A+ B+
 Fri, Nov 28 20 BYU L 79 - 83 15% +0  53% 6 - 2 B+ +14 B- +5 A+ C- D+ A +9 C A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 2 131 East Tennessee St. W 88 - 71 77% +10  79% 7 - 2 A- +16 B +7 A+ C C- A- +8 D+ C- A+
 Sat, Dec 6 22 Virginia L 73 - 86 16% -6  23% 7 - 3 C+ +4 C+ +2 B F+ A B- +2 F C A+
 Sat, Dec 13 340 North Florida W 84 - 61 97% +21  90% 8 - 3 B- +8 C- -2 B+ F C- A +10 A+ D B+
 Tue, Dec 16 80 Florida St. W 97 - 69 59% +13  98% 9 - 3 A+ +32 A +13 B- C A A+ +16 A- A A+
 Sat, Dec 20 107 Liberty L 61 - 64 71% +2  54% 9 - 4 C- -2 D- -7 F D+ B- B +4 B- B+ D-
 Wed, Dec 31 155 Fordham W 63 - 56 81% +5  98% 10 - 4 1 - 0 C+ +4 D+ -3 F A+ A- A- +8 B- A- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 282 @Loyola Chicago W 70 - 68 84% -6  8% 11 - 4 2 - 0 C- -2 D+ -4 F C- A- B- +2 D- C- B+
 Tue, Jan 6 82 George Washington W 79 - 72 60% -1  42% 12 - 4 3 - 0 B +11 C+ +3 F+ A+ B- A- +8 C- C- A+
 Tue, Jan 13 110 @Duquesne W 71 - 65 51% +5  87% 13 - 4 4 - 0 B+ +12 B- +5 B F+ B A- +8 B+ A+ C+
 Fri, Jan 16 282 Loyola Chicago W 78 - 51 93% +6  66% 14 - 4 5 - 0 A- +17 C- -0 B- F D- A+ +18 A+ B A+
 Wed, Jan 21 200 @La Salle L 64 - 67 71% -9  1% 14 - 5 5 - 1 C- -2 D+ -3 D- B D- C+ +0 C- C A
 Sat, Jan 24 133 @Saint Joseph's L 74 - 81 57% -3  38% 14 - 6 5 - 2 C- -2 C +0 C- B+ F C- -2 C- C+ D+
 Tue, Jan 27 124 Rhode Island L 76 - 81 OT 75% +3  62% 14 - 7 5 - 3 D+ -5 D+ -2 A+ D- F C- -3 C A- C+
 Fri, Jan 30 23 @Saint Louis L 71 - 102 12% -18  0% 14 - 8 5 - 4 D- -12 C+ +3 A- C+ F F -13 F F B-
 Tue, Feb 3 142 St. Bonaventure W 72 - 70 79% +3  68% 15 - 8 6 - 4 C -0 C -0 D C B- C+ +0 C- C B+
 Fri, Feb 6 46 @Virginia Commonwealth L 73 - 99 23% -17  3% 15 - 9 6 - 5 D- -12 D- -8 F+ B- D C +0 B+ D- C-
 Sun, Feb 15 113 Davidson W 70 - 59 74% +5  85% 16 - 9 7 - 5 B +11 B +6 C A+ F A- +7 B+ B C-
 Wed, Feb 18 105 @George Mason W 82 - 67 47% +8  99% 17 - 9 8 - 5 A +22 A+ +20 A+ A- A- B +5 B- A+ D+
 Sat, Feb 21 110 Duquesne W 78 - 66 72% +6  89% 18 - 9 9 - 5 B+ +12 A- +10 C- A+ A+ B +4 A F B
 Tue, Feb 24 23 Saint Louis L 74 - 81 26%
 Fri, Feb 27 82 @George Washington L 76 - 79 38%
 Tue, Mar 3 130 @Richmond W 76 - 74 56%
 Fri, Mar 6 46 Virginia Commonwealth L 75 - 77 44%
Totals 20 - 11 11 - 7 +7 C+ +2 C C B B +5 C- B A+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ B F C- C 44% 28% 41% B C+ C- B+ C+ C A+ B A+ B B B- D C+ 36% 25% 39% B C+ C+ C+ C+ A C C+ C
1.11 63% 29% 33% 0 +1 1.05 29% 1.2 .34 17% .41 76% .31 1.02 53% 36% 37% -1 -1 0.99 29% 1.0 .29 22% .30 71% .29
Nov
3		 Canisius A+ A+ F F C+ 48% 11% 41% B+ B- B- A+ A+ A+ A+ D A+ A+ A+ F+ B- B+ 36% 26% 38% C+ B F C- D- A+ B- A+ A+
1.39 95% 20% 17% +5 +2 1.16 35% 1.4 .48 6% .69 68% .47 0.76 27% 45% 31% -11 -1 0.79 33% 0.9 .30 30% .25 45% .11
Nov
8		 Maryland Baltimore Co. C+ A+ C- F+ B- 39% 24% 37% D+ C+ D A+ B+ C- A+ A+ A+ D+ B+ C- F+ D+ 28% 26% 46% B+ C- F D- F A+ A D- B+
1.17 78% 36% 29% +5 0 1.11 23% 1.7 .38 14% .42 79% .33 1.07 50% 38% 39% +1 -1 1.02 34% 1.1 .38 23% .20 80% .16
Nov
11		 Cincinnati F+ C+ D- F F 53% 5% 42% A+ F F B D- A- A+ A- A+ A+ B+ A+ F D 45% 10% 45% F D- A+ A+ A+ A+ F A- F
0.76 53% 33% 4% -22 +3 0.65 14% 1.2 .16 16% .40 74% .29 0.91 53% 25% 47% +5 +2 1.17 18% 0.7 .12 30% .65 62% .40
Nov
15		 Bethune-Cookman A+ D A+ A+ A+ 44% 12% 44% B- A+ B+ D+ B F+ A+ A+ A+ F D D+ B- D+ 36% 34% 30% A C- F F F F+ B+ A A-
1.33 50% 60% 61% +17 +1 1.39 39% 1.1 .43 19% .57 81% .47 1.19 63% 39% 31% +1 -2 1.00 38% 1.3 .50 15% .26 60% .15
Nov
19		 Marquette D+ C- A+ A+ A- 56% 7% 38% A+ A F A+ C F A+ D- A+ A+ A+ F B+ B+ 33% 18% 49% A+ A- C A+ B+ A+ B F+ C+
0.96 56% 67% 41% +5 +3 1.18 19% 1.6 .31 31% .47 69% .32 0.88 44% 50% 30% -6 0 0.91 32% 0.8 .24 25% .26 75% .20
Nov
22		 NC Central D B+ C- F F 31% 15% 54% C- F D C+ D+ A+ C+ F D A C+ A+ A- A+ 38% 38% 24% A+ A+ C+ F F A+ B- F C-
1.12 71% 38% 28% -1 0 1.00 33% 1.0 .33 11% .32 58% .19 0.83 53% 12% 27% -14 -2 0.69 26% 1.9 .50 27% .27 85% .23
Nov
27		 Georgetown B F F A+ C+ 33% 16% 51% B+ B- C B B- C A+ B+ A+ B+ C- C F D- 36% 24% 40% C+ D A A+ A+ B+ C+ A B
1.11 41% 25% 42% -1 0 1.00 30% 1.1 .33 17% .51 78% .40 1.05 60% 38% 41% +5 -1 1.11 26% 0.8 .21 17% .34 67% .22
Nov
28		 BYU B- C+ F A+ A 30% 16% 54% A A+ D+ B C- D+ C F F A B- C- F C 38% 23% 40% C- C A+ F A+ A+ B- F C
1.06 59% 22% 42% +4 0 1.11 21% 1.3 .26 19% .23 43% .10 1.11 60% 42% 43% +7 0 1.15 17% 1.8 .31 20% .30 83% .25
Dec
2		 East Tennessee St. B A+ B+ D+ A+ 42% 16% 42% C+ A+ B- D C C- A+ B+ A+ A- C- C- D D 37% 24% 39% B+ D+ F A C- A+ B- D C+
1.19 89% 43% 32% +12 +1 1.29 33% 0.9 .29 20% .59 80% .48 0.96 61% 42% 37% +4 -1 1.08 35% 0.9 .32 30% .29 80% .23
Dec
6		 Virginia C+ C+ F B+ B- 43% 23% 34% B+ B D F F+ A B+ C- B+ B- C- F+ F F 38% 19% 43% B F A+ F C A+ F D+ F
0.99 54% 23% 37% -4 0 0.95 20% 0.7 .14 12% .34 73% .25 1.17 63% 50% 56% +18 0 1.38 27% 1.7 .45 29% .51 74% .38
Dec
13		 North Florida C- A+ A+ F B 45% 9% 45% B B+ C+ F F C- C F F A A A A+ A+ 35% 20% 45% B A+ F B+ D B+ D- A+ D+
1.22 76% 80% 28% +8 +2 1.22 39% 0.8 .31 13% .28 47% .13 0.89 44% 30% 26% -12 0 0.78 34% 1.0 .34 22% .30 69% .20
Dec
16		 Florida St. A A+ F D C+ 40% 13% 48% A- B- F+ A+ C A A+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ D A- 35% 19% 46% B+ A- C A+ A A+ F B- F
1.24 74% 17% 30% +1 +1 1.06 21% 1.3 .28 15% .71 85% .61 0.88 47% 22% 36% -5 0 0.92 33% 0.8 .26 26% .46 70% .33
Dec
20		 Liberty D- F B- D F 27% 16% 57% C F C D- D+ B- A- A- A B C- A+ F B- 55% 12% 33% C+ B- B+ A+ B+ D- A A+ A+
1.02 33% 43% 32% -8 0 0.86 31% 1.1 .34 17% .30 80% .24 1.07 63% 17% 44% +5 +2 1.16 13% 0.8 .10 10% .17 44% .07
Dec
31		 Fordham D+ A+ F F F 46% 27% 27% B- F C- A+ A+ A- A- B+ A- A- F A+ A C+ 23% 19% 57% B B- D- A+ A- A+ A A A
1.01 73% 0% 8% -14 0 0.73 24% 2.4 .58 13% .33 72% .24 0.89 82% 22% 26% -4 -1 0.91 39% 0.6 .24 24% .17 63% .10
Jan
3		 Loyola Chicago D+ D F F F 49% 10% 41% A F F+ A+ C- A- A+ A- A+ B- B+ F C- D- 41% 12% 47% C D- F A+ C- B+ A+ A A+
1.04 50% 20% 25% -11 +2 0.84 21% 1.4 .29 9% .41 84% .34 1.01 50% 83% 35% +3 +1 1.10 43% 0.7 .30 22% .10 60% .06
Jan
6		 George Washington C+ A+ F F F+ 36% 26% 38% D+ F+ B+ A+ A+ B- A+ A+ A+ A- F A+ D+ D- 24% 24% 52% A+ C- F A- C- A+ F A+ D+
1.14 76% 0% 28% -7 -1 0.87 34% 1.4 .47 16% .51 90% .46 1.04 90% 30% 36% +8 -1 1.14 45% 0.9 .42 32% .42 60% .25
Jan
13		 Duquesne B- C- F A+ B- 45% 15% 40% A- B F+ F+ F+ B A+ A+ A+ A- B- D+ B B+ 39% 11% 50% C+ B+ A- A+ A+ C+ F+ C D-
1.10 56% 17% 44% +2 +1 1.08 21% 0.8 .17 16% .51 82% .42 1.01 56% 40% 30% -3 +1 0.98 24% 0.5 .12 19% .42 73% .31
Jan
16		 Loyola Chicago C- C+ F A+ B- 37% 18% 45% B- B- F+ F F D- A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 43% 20% 36% B A+ F+ A+ B A+ C- A+ B-
1.14 58% 22% 43% +4 0 1.10 21% 0.7 .15 16% .49 79% .38 0.75 42% 22% 25% -15 0 0.73 37% 0.6 .23 28% .32 56% .18
Jan
21		 La Salle D+ A+ C F F+ 43% 19% 38% C+ D- B+ C- B D- A+ B+ A+ C+ A F B C 39% 12% 49% F C- C+ D+ C A F A F
0.99 72% 38% 13% -6 +1 0.90 36% 1.1 .39 20% .35 72% .25 1.04 44% 80% 30% -3 +1 0.98 32% 1.0 .32 23% .57 64% .36
Jan
24		 Saint Joseph's C F C+ A- D 53% 15% 33% A+ C- C- A+ B+ F B- F C C- C D B- C- 33% 10% 57% C- C- B+ D C+ D+ F D- F
0.99 41% 38% 39% -6 +2 0.93 28% 1.4 .38 20% .25 60% .15 1.08 59% 40% 31% -2 +1 1.00 28% 1.1 .31 16% .41 81% .33
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
27		 Rhode Island D+ A+ D- A+ A+ 44% 18% 38% C+ A+ D D- D- F A+ B+ A+ C- A+ D+ F C- 43% 26% 30% B+ C B- A+ A- C+ F D- F
1.01 71% 29% 47% +11 +1 1.26 27% 0.9 .23 31% .64 76% .48 1.08 40% 42% 50% 0 0 1.02 30% 0.7 .21 20% .60 78% .47
Jan
30		 Saint Louis C+ C- A+ C+ A- 47% 18% 35% B+ A- D A+ C+ F D A+ C+ F B F F F 43% 4% 53% C F A F F B- F A D
0.98 50% 56% 33% -1 +1 1.02 20% 1.2 .23 21% .28 88% .24 1.40 55% 100% 59% +21 +3 1.49 26% 2.2 .57 18% .38 65% .25
Feb
3		 St. Bonaventure C A F D D- 40% 16% 44% C+ D C- B- C B- A+ A A+ C+ F F+ A+ D+ 32% 30% 38% B+ C- C- B- C B+ F+ F+ F
1.13 71% 0% 32% -3 +1 0.98 27% 1.1 .30 16% .61 85% .52 1.10 87% 50% 22% +6 -2 1.11 37% 0.9 .33 20% .33 82% .28
Feb
6		 Virginia Commonwealth D- F F B- F 56% 13% 31% A F+ C- A- B- D A+ F A- C A F A A 51% 12% 37% D B+ A- F D- C- F F F
0.88 35% 29% 35% -13 +2 0.80 28% 1.2 .33 19% .45 60% .27 1.20 48% 71% 29% -4 +2 0.98 28% 1.6 .46 15% .54 82% .44
Feb
15		 Davidson B C F D+ D+ 49% 18% 33% A- C A+ B+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ A- B B- C B+ 31% 27% 42% B+ B+ A+ F B C- A- B- B+
1.15 58% 29% 31% -3 +1 0.97 52% 1.1 .59 26% .54 88% .47 0.97 53% 38% 35% -1 -1 0.98 17% 1.6 .27 16% .22 64% .14
Feb
18		 George Mason A+ A D- A+ A+ 43% 15% 41% A- A+ C- A+ A- A- A+ F A- B A A- F C+ 34% 36% 30% A+ B- A+ C A+ D+ D+ F F+
1.31 70% 29% 53% +15 +1 1.35 25% 1.4 .36 13% .38 62% .24 1.07 50% 29% 50% +1 -2 1.00 17% 1.0 .17 14% .41 82% .34
Feb
21		 Duquesne A- F A+ D- D+ 45% 16% 39% A- C- B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B- A+ B B A+ F A 34% 27% 39% A+ A F+ F F B F D+ F
1.21 45% 71% 29% -3 +1 0.98 35% 1.5 .52 12% .57 75% .43 1.03 53% 8% 41% -6 -1 0.89 36% 1.2 .44 20% .47 75% .35



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.2 0.7 0.9 2nd
3rd 1.9 19.1 15.2 2.2 38.4 3rd
4th 0.1 15.3 14.3 1.2 30.9 4th
5th 1.6 13.7 0.8 16.2 5th
6th 4.6 2.8 0.0 7.4 6th
7th 4.7 0.0 4.7 7th
8th 1.4 1.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 12.5 33.7 34.2 16.6 2.9 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 2.9% 18.6% 11.8% 6.7% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 2.4 7.6%
12-6 16.6% 9.4% 7.9% 1.4% 11.2 0.0 0.1 1.1 0.4 15.0 1.6%
11-7 34.2% 5.7% 5.5% 0.2% 11.5 0.0 1.0 0.9 0.0 32.3 0.2%
10-8 33.7% 3.3% 3.2% 0.1% 11.7 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.0 32.6 0.1%
9-9 12.5% 2.0% 2.0% 11.9 0.1 0.2 0.0 12.3
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.4% 4.9% 0.5% 11.4 94.6 0.6%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 10.8 1.0 18.3 76.0 4.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6% 15.7% 11.1 13.5 2.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.2% 7.4% 11.1 6.6 0.9
Lose Out 4.7%