Dayton
Atlantic 10
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.5#74
Expected Predictive Rating+9.7#60
Pace65.1#264
Improvement-3.4#313

Offense
Total Offense+6.0#52
First Shot+5.4#51
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#144
Layup/Dunks+3.8#54
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#209
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#158
Freethrows+1.6#84
Improvement-3.1#317

Defense
Total Defense+1.5#123
First Shot+1.1#138
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#145
Layups/Dunks+3.6#56
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#340
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#154
Freethrows-0.7#239
Improvement-0.3#209
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.2% 27.2% 2.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4.5% 6.5% 2.5%
Average Seed 11.2 11.2 11.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.8% 4.9% 2.5%
First Round13.6% 24.0% 0.9%
Second Round2.9% 5.1% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 1.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 11 - 1
Quad 1b2 - 23 - 3
Quad 24 - 57 - 8
Quad 39 - 215 - 10
Quad 47 - 022 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 315   St. Francis (PA) W 87-57 95%     1 - 0 +18.0 +8.0 +9.7
  Nov 09, 2024 49   Northwestern W 71-66 47%     2 - 0 +13.3 +4.1 +9.3
  Nov 13, 2024 268   Ball St. W 77-69 93%     3 - 0 -0.8 -2.0 +1.1
  Nov 20, 2024 126   New Mexico St. W 74-53 78%     4 - 0 +20.3 +15.7 +7.9
  Nov 25, 2024 34   North Carolina L 90-92 28%     4 - 1 +11.7 +13.2 -1.3
  Nov 26, 2024 9   Iowa St. L 84-89 14%     4 - 2 +14.2 +24.2 -10.1
  Nov 27, 2024 28   Connecticut W 85-67 25%     5 - 2 +32.5 +22.8 +11.1
  Dec 03, 2024 297   Western Michigan W 77-69 94%     6 - 2 -2.5 +12.5 -13.6
  Dec 07, 2024 280   Lehigh W 86-62 93%     7 - 2 +14.5 +18.6 -1.4
  Dec 14, 2024 25   Marquette W 71-63 31%     8 - 2 +20.6 +14.0 +7.6
  Dec 17, 2024 93   UNLV W 66-65 68%     9 - 2 +3.7 +8.4 -4.5
  Dec 20, 2024 48   Cincinnati L 59-66 36%     9 - 3 +4.2 -0.1 +3.5
  Dec 31, 2024 216   La Salle W 84-70 89%     10 - 3 1 - 0 +8.2 +0.5 +6.3
  Jan 04, 2025 116   @ George Washington L 62-82 56%     10 - 4 1 - 1 -13.9 -4.1 -10.5
  Jan 08, 2025 196   @ Massachusetts L 72-76 74%     10 - 5 1 - 2 -3.2 +1.4 -4.6
  Jan 15, 2025 89   George Mason L 59-67 67%     10 - 6 1 - 3 -5.0 +3.5 -10.0
  Jan 18, 2025 108   Loyola Chicago W 83-81 OT 73%     11 - 6 2 - 3 +3.0 +7.0 -4.1
  Jan 21, 2025 121   @ Duquesne W 82-62 59%     12 - 6 3 - 3 +25.2 +18.9 +7.7
  Jan 24, 2025 75   Saint Joseph's W 77-72 61%     13 - 6 4 - 3 +9.7 +11.0 -0.9
  Jan 28, 2025 110   @ St. Bonaventure L 53-75 54%     13 - 7 4 - 4 -15.5 -1.9 -18.9
  Jan 31, 2025 100   @ Saint Louis W 71-63 51%     14 - 7 5 - 4 +15.2 +5.0 +10.5
  Feb 04, 2025 140   Davidson W 69-63 81%     15 - 7 6 - 4 +4.4 +1.5 +3.5
  Feb 07, 2025 36   Virginia Commonwealth L 68-73 37%     15 - 8 6 - 5 +5.9 +1.1 +4.7
  Feb 12, 2025 222   @ Fordham W 93-76 78%     16 - 8 7 - 5 +16.4 +27.8 -9.9
  Feb 15, 2025 121   Duquesne W 77-76 77%     17 - 8 8 - 5 +0.7 +10.3 -9.6
  Feb 21, 2025 108   @ Loyola Chicago L 72-76 54%     17 - 9 8 - 6 +2.5 +3.1 -0.5
  Feb 26, 2025 151   @ Rhode Island W 85-77 66%     18 - 9 9 - 6 +11.3 +7.7 +3.0
  Mar 01, 2025 223   Richmond W 74-64 2OT 89%     19 - 9 10 - 6 +3.9 -8.5 +11.4
  Mar 04, 2025 100   Saint Louis W 75-67 71%     20 - 9 11 - 6 +9.7 +7.5 +2.6
  Mar 07, 2025 36   @ Virginia Commonwealth W 79-76 20%     21 - 9 12 - 6 +19.4 +21.5 -1.9
Projected Record 21 - 9 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 100.0 100.0 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 100.0% 16.2% 12.2% 3.9% 11.2 0.0 1.0 11.3 3.9 83.8 4.5%
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 16.2% 12.2% 3.9% 11.2 0.0 1.0 11.3 3.9 83.8 4.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 12.2% 100.0% 11.1 0.2 7.9 69.3 22.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 20.7% 8.7% 11.2 0.1 6.6 2.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 22.2% 4.4% 11.3 0.0 2.8 1.6
Lose Out 44.9% 2.5% 11.3 1.8 0.7