Dayton
Atlantic 10
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +6.2 #88
Expected Predictive Rating +5.9 #87
Pace 69.0 #172
Improvement -4.1 #334

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #137 C+ C C A+ B
Defense #52 C C+ A+ C+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #46 1.28 #62 +5.8 #22
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #302 0.58 #354 -3.5 #338
Three Pointers 41% #173 0.97 #250 -0.8 #213
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #131 +1.5 #131
Freethrows 0.40 #3 76% #78 0.30 #3
Second Chance 26.9% #285 1.16 #39 0.31 #177
Turnovers 16.6% #173
Total Offense +1.0 #137

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #274 1.05 #48 +3.7 #62
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #69 0.74 #140 -1.1 #273
Three Pointers 40% #201 1.12 #324 -1.9 #270
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #152 +0.7 #152
Freethrows 0.30 #176 69% #42 0.21 #131
Second Chance 30.6% #171 0.95 #78 0.29 #120
Turnovers 22.7% #5
Total Defense +5.2 #52

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.2% #43 -1.3% #70
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.6% #163 -0.2% #184
Possession Length 16.7 #118 17.5 #237
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #75 0.14 #73
Improvement -2.9 #329 -1.2 #253

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.2% 4.6% 2.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Average Seed 11.4 11.4 11.7
.500 or above 98.6% 99.6% 95.2%
.500 or above in Conference 72.7% 79.6% 50.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round4.0% 4.4% 2.6%
Second Round0.6% 0.6% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Bonaventure (Home) - 76.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 6
Quad 24 - 24 - 9
Quad 37 - 411 - 13
Quad 48 - 019 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 345 Canisius W 88 - 48 96% +21  1 - 0 +25 +19 B- A+ A+ +11 B D A+
 Sat, Nov 8 261 Maryland Baltimore Co. W 77 - 71 91% +4  2 - 0 -3 +4 C+ B C -7 C- F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 52 @Cincinnati L 62 - 74 25% -9  2 - 1 +1 -7 F D- A- +10 F+ A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 236 Bethune-Cookman W 91 - 82 89% +6  3 - 1 +2 +18 A+ B- D- -16 C F D
 Wed, Nov 19 95 @Marquette W 77 - 71 OT 40% +5  4 - 1 +15 -1 A C F +15 B+ B A+
 Sat, Nov 22 341 NC Central W 74 - 55 96% +19  5 - 1 +4 -2 D- C- A+ +7 A+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 27 78 Georgetown W 84 - 79 OT 46% +7  6 - 1 +12 +8 C+ C+ C +4 D A+ B+
 Fri, Nov 28 15 BYU L 79 - 83 13% +0  6 - 2 +14 +9 A+ C- C- +6 C A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 2 131 East Tennessee St. W 88 - 71 76% +10  7 - 2 +16 +9 A+ C+ C- +6 D+ C A+
 Sat, Dec 6 25 Virginia L 73 - 86 17% -6  7 - 3 +3 +3 B- D- A- +1 F C+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 351 North Florida W 84 - 61 97% +21  8 - 3 +7 -2 B- F C +9 A+ D+ B+
 Tue, Dec 16 101 Florida St. W 97 - 69 66% +13  9 - 3 +30 +15 C+ C- A+ +12 B+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 20 89 Liberty L 61 - 64 62% +2  9 - 4 +0 -2 D- D+ B- +2 C+ A- D
 Wed, Dec 31 169 Fordham W 63 - 56 83% +5  10 - 4 1 - 0 +3 -2 F A+ B- +6 B- A- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 279 @Loyola Chicago W 70 - 68 82% -6  11 - 4 2 - 0 -2 -3 F C- B+ +1 D- C A-
 Tue, Jan 6 79 George Washington W 79 - 72 58% -1  12 - 4 3 - 0 +11 +7 F+ A+ B +5 C- C A+
 Tue, Jan 13 113 @Duquesne W 71 - 65 50% +5  13 - 4 4 - 0 +12 +7 B F+ C+ +5 B+ A+ C
 Fri, Jan 16 279 Loyola Chicago W 78 - 51 92% +6  14 - 4 5 - 0 +17 +1 B- F F+ +17 A+ B A+
 Wed, Jan 21 214 @La Salle L 64 - 67 73% -9  14 - 5 5 - 1 -3 -3 D- B D- -1 C C A
 Sat, Jan 24 132 @Saint Joseph's L 74 - 81 55% -3  14 - 6 5 - 2 -2 +2 C- B F -4 C- C+ D+
 Tue, Jan 27 119 Rhode Island L 76 - 81 OT 73% +3  14 - 7 5 - 3 -5 -0 A+ D- F -5 C+ A- C
 Fri, Jan 30 24 @Saint Louis L 71 - 102 12% -18  14 - 8 5 - 4 -12 +5 A- C F -16 F F B-
 Tue, Feb 3 141 St. Bonaventure W 77 - 69 77%
 Fri, Feb 6 50 @Virginia Commonwealth L 72 - 79 24%
 Sun, Feb 15 117 Davidson W 71 - 65 72%
 Wed, Feb 18 84 @George Mason L 68 - 72 38%
 Sat, Feb 21 113 Duquesne W 78 - 72 71%
 Tue, Feb 24 24 Saint Louis L 72 - 79 25%
 Fri, Feb 27 79 @George Washington L 75 - 79 35%
 Tue, Mar 3 136 @Richmond W 74 - 72 56%
 Fri, Mar 6 50 Virginia Commonwealth L 75 - 76 45%
Totals 18 - 13 9 - 9 +6 +1 C+ C C +5 C C+ A+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 1.3 0.1 2.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.5 3.6 0.6 0.0 6.9 3rd
4th 0.3 4.5 8.4 2.0 0.0 15.1 4th
5th 0.0 3.0 11.0 4.0 0.1 18.2 5th
6th 0.9 9.3 7.1 0.4 17.7 6th
7th 0.1 5.1 8.7 1.2 0.0 15.1 7th
8th 1.3 7.4 3.0 0.0 11.7 8th
9th 0.2 3.7 3.6 0.2 7.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 2.3 0.2 0.0 3.2 10th
11th 0.1 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.4 11th
12th 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.2 1.9 7.8 17.3 24.5 24.0 15.4 6.7 1.9 0.2 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 5.7% 0.0    0.0
13-5 0.5% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.2% 31.4% 17.1% 14.3% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 17.2%
13-5 1.9% 15.6% 9.5% 6.1% 10.9 0.0 0.3 0.0 1.6 6.7%
12-6 6.7% 10.8% 9.7% 1.0% 11.1 0.0 0.6 0.1 6.0 1.2%
11-7 15.4% 6.9% 6.7% 0.2% 11.3 0.0 0.7 0.3 14.4 0.2%
10-8 24.0% 4.3% 4.2% 0.0% 11.6 0.5 0.6 0.0 23.0 0.0%
9-9 24.5% 2.5% 2.5% 11.7 0.2 0.4 0.0 23.9
8-10 17.3% 1.6% 1.6% 12.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 17.0
7-11 7.8% 1.2% 1.2% 12.5 0.1 0.0 7.7
6-12 1.9% 0.5% 0.5% 14.0 0.0 1.9
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.2% 3.9% 0.3% 11.4 95.8 0.3%