Marshall
Sun Belt
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.3 #159
Expected Predictive Rating +3.2 #121
Pace 71.9 #101
Improvement -3.0 #325

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #155 C+ B- D+ C- D-
Defense #193 C+ B C- D+ B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #352 1.33 #33 -2.8 #277
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #104 0.73 #201 +1.2 #110
Three Pointers 46% #82 1.03 #163 +3.1 #89
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #138 +1.6 #136
Freethrows 15.4 #283 75% #99 11.6 #243
Second Chance 30.6% #191 1.22 #26 0.37 #82
Turnovers 17.8% #255
Total Offense +0.4 #155

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #310 1.16 #172 +3.0 #83
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #50 0.70 #116 -1.3 #273
Three Pointers 41% #184 1.03 #205 -0.4 #196
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #137 +1.3 #137
Freethrows 19.8 #303 70% #78 13.8 #95
Second Chance 32.9% #266 0.81 #7 0.27 #59
Turnovers 15.8% #225
Total Defense -0.7 #193

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.3% #310 -2.0% #38
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.4% #101 -0.5% #167
Possession Length 15.9 #63 17.8 #261
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #104 0.17 #156
Improvement -0.6 #226 -2.4 #321

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.7% 16.7% 10.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.7 14.0
.500 or above 97.7% 98.9% 95.2%
.500 or above in Conference 95.2% 97.6% 90.2%
Conference Champion 19.9% 24.8% 9.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round14.7% 16.7% 10.5%
Second Round0.7% 0.8% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgia St. (Away) - 67.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 36 - 57 - 8
Quad 414 - 420 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 167 @Massachusetts W 78 - 72 40%  +5  1 - 0 +8 -3 A+ C+ F +11 C A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 8 180 @Toledo W 85 - 73 43%  -1  2 - 0 +14 +10 A+ F D- +4 B B+ A
 Wed, Nov 12 163 Elon W 96 - 89 62%  +6  3 - 0 +3 +10 A- A+ D- -7 B- C+ D-
 Sat, Nov 15 22 @Virginia L 78 - 104 5%  -20  3 - 1 -7 +7 C A+ F -12 D+ D- D-
 Thu, Nov 20 327 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 98 - 70 89%  +5  4 - 1 +15 +9 A+ F C +3 A+ C+ B
 Sun, Nov 23 307 Mercyhurst W 69 - 60 86%  +5  5 - 1 -3 +0 A- F C+ -2 B+ B C-
 Wed, Nov 26 177 Lipscomb L 67 - 90 65%  -17  5 - 2 -27 -14 F B- F -11 F A+ A-
 Wed, Dec 3 118 @UNC Wilmington L 69 - 70 27%  -1  5 - 3 +5 +8 C A+ F -3 A+ B F
 Sat, Dec 6 170 @Ohio L 81 - 88 41%  -6  5 - 4 -5 +6 C- A- C -11 D+ C F
 Wed, Dec 10 155 Western Kentucky W 77 - 61 61%  +7  6 - 4 +13 +4 D- A A+ +9 B A+ B
 Sat, Dec 13 148 Wright St. W 76 - 74 59%  -1  7 - 4 -0 +10 B- A+ B- -10 D+ A+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 137 @Troy L 63 - 70 32%  -6  7 - 5 0 - 1 -3 -7 F D D- +4 A+ B- B-
 Wed, Dec 31 304 Georgia St. W 84 - 80 84%  +2  8 - 5 1 - 1 -7 +3 B- A+ F -10 D- F C
 Sat, Jan 3 224 Appalachian St. W 88 - 81 72%  +8  9 - 5 2 - 1 +1 +14 A+ F A- -13 D- D- C
 Wed, Jan 7 204 @James Madison W 66 - 64 47%  +8  10 - 5 3 - 1 +3 -0 F A A- +3 A D+ B-
 Sat, Jan 10 304 @Georgia St. W 78 - 73 67% 
 Wed, Jan 14 270 Coastal Carolina W 79 - 70 80% 
 Sat, Jan 17 204 James Madison W 78 - 73 69% 
 Thu, Jan 22 356 Louisiana Monroe W 89 - 73 94% 
 Sat, Jan 24 200 South Alabama W 73 - 68 68% 
 Wed, Jan 28 268 @Texas St. W 75 - 72 61% 
 Sat, Jan 31 126 @Arkansas St. L 80 - 85 32% 
 Wed, Feb 4 201 Southern Miss W 78 - 73 68% 
 Sat, Feb 7 93 Miami (OH) L 79 - 82 39% 
 Wed, Feb 11 250 @Old Dominion W 78 - 76 56% 
 Sat, Feb 14 213 @Georgia Southern L 81 - 82 49% 
 Thu, Feb 19 224 @Appalachian St. W 69 - 68 51% 
 Sat, Feb 21 270 @Coastal Carolina W 76 - 73 62% 
 Tue, Feb 24 250 Old Dominion W 81 - 73 76% 
 Fri, Feb 27 213 Georgia Southern W 85 - 79 70% 
Totals 19 - 11 12 - 6 +0 +0 C+ B- D+ -1 C+ B C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 3.1 6.8 6.2 2.9 0.5 19.9 1st
2nd 0.3 3.9 8.2 5.8 1.4 0.1 19.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.9 8.7 5.6 1.0 0.1 18.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 6.4 4.8 0.8 0.0 13.2 4th
5th 0.2 4.0 4.9 0.9 0.0 10.1 5th
6th 0.0 1.7 4.2 1.2 0.1 7.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.6 1.7 0.1 4.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 1.7 0.2 3.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.4 0.0 1.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 3.1 6.6 11.5 15.9 18.7 17.6 13.6 7.7 3.0 0.5 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-2 95.7% 2.9    2.6 0.4 0.0
15-3 80.3% 6.2    4.0 2.0 0.2
14-4 50.0% 6.8    2.7 3.0 1.0 0.1
13-5 17.4% 3.1    0.5 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.0
12-6 2.0% 0.4    0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 19.9% 19.9 10.2 6.6 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.5% 37.8% 37.8% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
16-2 3.0% 36.1% 36.1% 13.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.9
15-3 7.7% 33.9% 33.9% 13.4 0.2 1.2 1.1 0.1 5.1
14-4 13.6% 26.8% 26.8% 13.7 0.1 1.3 1.9 0.4 10.0
13-5 17.6% 19.3% 19.3% 14.0 0.0 0.9 1.8 0.7 0.0 14.2
12-6 18.7% 11.2% 11.2% 14.1 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.5 0.0 16.7
11-7 15.9% 6.6% 6.6% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.0 14.8
10-8 11.5% 3.8% 3.8% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 11.0
9-9 6.6% 1.2% 1.2% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.5
8-10 3.1% 1.4% 1.4% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1
7-11 1.3% 0.8% 0.8% 15.5 0.0 0.0 1.3
6-12 0.3% 0.3
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 14.7% 14.7% 0.0% 13.8 85.3 0.0%