Marshall
Sun Belt
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.8#199
Expected Predictive Rating-4.4#240
Pace73.9#63
Improvement-1.0#245

Offense
Total Offense-1.0#201
First Shot-0.9#203
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#198
Layup/Dunks-2.5#275
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#73
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#212
Freethrows+0.7#132
Improvement+0.6#130

Defense
Total Defense-0.8#195
First Shot-1.1#210
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#156
Layups/Dunks-1.1#211
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#305
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#28
Freethrows-2.8#339
Improvement-1.6#294
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.4% 5.5% 3.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.3 14.7
.500 or above 52.7% 68.6% 43.6%
.500 or above in Conference 59.7% 66.2% 56.0%
Conference Champion 3.2% 4.4% 2.5%
Last Place in Conference 2.4% 1.7% 2.8%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round4.3% 5.4% 3.7%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Elon (Away) - 36.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 34 - 74 - 11
Quad 412 - 515 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 208   Toledo L 80-90 63%     0 - 1 -15.3 -4.8 -9.7
  Nov 11, 2024 325   Southern Indiana W 77-63 84%     1 - 1 +1.7 -1.7 +3.3
  Nov 16, 2024 345   Bellarmine W 83-62 88%     2 - 1 +6.2 +0.0 +6.3
  Nov 23, 2024 27   @ Purdue L 45-80 5%     2 - 2 -18.1 -20.0 +0.3
  Nov 27, 2024 253   South Carolina St. W 82-53 72%     3 - 2 +21.0 +8.2 +13.3
  Nov 30, 2024 109   @ Western Kentucky L 82-90 20%     3 - 3 -0.9 +5.9 -5.9
  Dec 04, 2024 277   Morehead St. W 80-77 76%     4 - 3 -6.4 +3.4 -9.7
  Dec 07, 2024 133   @ UNC Wilmington L 69-78 27%     4 - 4 -4.4 -6.2 +2.2
  Dec 11, 2024 168   @ Wright St. L 79-88 34%     4 - 5 -6.4 -1.6 -4.2
  Dec 14, 2024 147   Ohio W 79-70 53%     5 - 5 +6.3 +0.8 +5.2
  Dec 21, 2024 282   @ Southern Miss L 66-68 57%     5 - 6 0 - 1 -5.6 +5.8 -11.8
  Dec 28, 2024 182   @ Elon L 71-75 36%    
  Jan 02, 2025 126   Texas St. L 72-73 47%    
  Jan 04, 2025 120   Troy L 72-74 44%    
  Jan 09, 2025 134   James Madison L 74-75 49%    
  Jan 11, 2025 242   Georgia Southern W 81-75 70%    
  Jan 16, 2025 134   @ James Madison L 72-78 28%    
  Jan 18, 2025 278   @ Coastal Carolina W 71-69 56%    
  Jan 23, 2025 272   @ Georgia St. W 76-75 54%    
  Jan 25, 2025 242   @ Georgia Southern L 78-79 49%    
  Jan 30, 2025 272   Georgia St. W 79-72 74%    
  Feb 01, 2025 278   Coastal Carolina W 74-66 76%    
  Feb 05, 2025 105   Arkansas St. L 75-78 39%    
  Feb 13, 2025 156   @ South Alabama L 68-73 33%    
  Feb 15, 2025 285   @ Louisiana W 76-74 57%    
  Feb 20, 2025 308   @ Old Dominion W 78-75 62%    
  Feb 22, 2025 175   @ Appalachian St. L 67-71 36%    
  Feb 25, 2025 308   Old Dominion W 81-72 80%    
  Feb 28, 2025 175   Appalachian St. W 70-68 57%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.0 3.2 1st
2nd 0.2 1.4 2.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 5.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 3.7 1.8 0.2 0.0 7.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 4.5 2.7 0.3 9.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 4.8 4.3 0.6 0.0 10.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 4.2 5.5 1.2 0.0 11.3 6th
7th 0.2 2.6 6.2 2.3 0.1 0.0 11.4 7th
8th 0.0 1.5 5.6 3.3 0.2 0.0 10.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 3.8 3.9 0.5 0.0 8.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.3 3.8 1.0 0.0 7.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.5 3.0 1.4 0.1 6.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.0 1.2 0.1 4.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.3 4.6 7.5 10.8 13.6 15.2 14.3 12.0 8.6 5.5 2.7 1.0 0.3 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 94.2% 0.3    0.3 0.0
15-3 79.8% 0.8    0.5 0.3 0.0
14-4 44.8% 1.2    0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0
13-5 13.5% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.2% 3.2 1.3 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.3% 24.0% 24.0% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-3 1.0% 14.8% 14.8% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9
14-4 2.7% 16.2% 16.2% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 2.3
13-5 5.5% 11.9% 11.9% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 4.8
12-6 8.6% 10.3% 10.3% 14.4 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 7.7
11-7 12.0% 6.8% 6.8% 14.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 11.2
10-8 14.3% 4.1% 4.1% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 13.7
9-9 15.2% 2.4% 2.4% 15.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 14.8
8-10 13.6% 1.8% 1.8% 15.6 0.1 0.2 13.4
7-11 10.8% 1.1% 1.1% 15.8 0.0 0.1 10.7
6-12 7.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 7.4
5-13 4.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 4.6
4-14 2.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.3
3-15 1.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.0
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 1.7 0.6 95.6 0.0%