Massachusetts
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.0 #173
Expected Predictive Rating -1.3 #191
Pace 75.1 #35
Improvement -1.6 #255

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #197 C B- D C+ C
Defense #157 C C+ C D- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #119 1.17 #163 +1.6 #120
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #119 0.75 #186 +0.9 #119
Three Pointers 36% #293 0.98 #233 -3.4 #299
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #194 -0.8 #195
Freethrows 0.34 #73 67% #327 0.23 #145
Second Chance 31.8% #144 1.17 #32 0.37 #66
Turnovers 18.8% #305
Total Offense -1.1 #197

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #145 1.27 #313 -3.1 #286
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #274 0.81 #274 +0.7 #134
Three Pointers 42% #131 0.90 #42 +1.8 #116
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #201 -0.6 #201
Freethrows 0.37 #340 72% #143 0.27 #334
Second Chance 27.2% #64 1.08 #263 0.29 #125
Turnovers 16.8% #172
Total Defense +0.1 #157

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.4% #216 1.0% #266
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.2% #189 0.3% #195
Possession Length 16.4 #92 16.7 #95
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #150 0.22 #337
Improvement +2.3 #65 -3.9 #348

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.9% 3.2% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 14.0 14.3
.500 or above 95.9% 97.7% 87.8%
.500 or above in Conference 53.3% 60.0% 23.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.8%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round2.9% 3.1% 1.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Michigan (Home) - 81.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 35 - 66 - 10
Quad 412 - 418 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 153 Marshall L 72 - 78 57% -5  0 - 1 -9 -13 C F F +5 D- B+ A+
 Sat, Nov 8 316 Albany W 83 - 62 86% +7  1 - 1 +8 -1 F A+ F+ +8 A C A+
 Thu, Nov 13 296 Le Moyne W 94 - 80 82% +11  2 - 1 +3 +8 A B F+ -6 C C F
 Sun, Nov 16 300 Central Connecticut St. W 84 - 77 83% +12  3 - 1 -4 -4 D- A+ F -1 C C C+
 Fri, Nov 21 152 College of Charleston L 65 - 69 45% +1  3 - 2 -4 -6 B- C+ F +2 B+ F D
 Sat, Nov 22 258 Green Bay L 75 - 79 67% -4  3 - 3 -9 -2 F A+ D+ -8 C- C+ F+
 Mon, Nov 24 184 Oregon St. W 73 - 65 52% +2  4 - 3 +6 +3 D A+ C- +4 D- A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 165 Harvard W 78 - 71 59% +10  5 - 3 +4 +0 A F F +3 B+ C+ C-
 Sat, Dec 6 314 Umass Lowell W 80 - 60 85% +8  6 - 3 +8 -5 D+ D F+ +11 B- B+ A
 Wed, Dec 10 127 Boston College W 76 - 74 38% +3  7 - 3 +4 +8 C- A+ F -4 A C+ D+
 Sat, Dec 13 101 Florida St. W 103 - 95 29% +5  8 - 3 +13 +18 A A+ B+ -6 F+ A+ C
 Sat, Dec 20 145 Kent St. L 59 - 69 54% -5  8 - 4 0 - 1 -12 -16 F F+ F +4 B- B+ C-
 Tue, Dec 30 237 @Eastern Michigan L 74 - 80 51% -2  8 - 5 0 - 2 -7 -1 F C+ A+ -6 C C F+
 Sat, Jan 3 151 Bowling Green L 100 - 101 OT 56% -0  8 - 6 0 - 3 -4 +8 A+ B- D -11 D- B+ F
 Tue, Jan 6 199 @Ohio L 83 - 86 44% -3  8 - 7 0 - 4 -3 +6 B- F C -8 F B C-
 Sat, Jan 10 298 Ball St. W 79 - 71 83% +3  9 - 7 1 - 4 -3 +3 A- F C+ -6 D- C D+
 Tue, Jan 13 273 @Western Michigan W 85 - 82 59% +4  10 - 7 2 - 4 -0 +12 C- A+ D+ -12 F F D-
 Sat, Jan 17 308 @Northern Illinois L 68 - 70 68% -3  10 - 8 2 - 5 -8 -8 F D F +1 B B D-
 Tue, Jan 20 159 Toledo W 84 - 82 58% +2  11 - 8 3 - 5 -1 +6 B- B+ C- -7 D- C+ A+
 Fri, Jan 23 204 @Buffalo W 68 - 67 45% +7  12 - 8 4 - 5 +1 -4 F+ C+ D- +6 C C+ B
 Tue, Jan 27 90 @Miami (OH) L 84 - 86 17% +3  12 - 9 4 - 6 +7 +17 B+ A+ B -10 A- F D+
 Sat, Jan 31 237 Eastern Michigan W 70 - 67 73% +4  13 - 9 5 - 6 -4 +1 D C A+ -5 D+ B A-
 Tue, Feb 3 294 Central Michigan W 80 - 70 82%
 Sat, Feb 7 239 @Coastal Carolina W 75 - 74 52%
 Sat, Feb 14 61 @Akron L 77 - 90 11%
 Tue, Feb 17 90 Miami (OH) L 81 - 85 35%
 Sat, Feb 21 204 Buffalo W 82 - 77 67%
 Tue, Feb 24 298 @Ball St. W 74 - 70 65%
 Sat, Feb 28 151 @Bowling Green L 75 - 79 33%
 Tue, Mar 3 199 Ohio W 82 - 77 66%
Totals 17 - 13 9 - 9 -1 -1 C B- D +0 C C+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.3 2.0 3rd
4th 1.7 6.8 3.4 0.3 12.1 4th
5th 1.1 11.1 8.3 0.9 0.0 21.4 5th
6th 0.2 7.3 12.9 1.4 0.0 21.8 6th
7th 0.0 3.0 13.4 4.3 0.0 20.8 7th
8th 0.6 7.7 5.6 0.3 14.1 8th
9th 0.0 1.8 3.5 0.2 5.4 9th
10th 0.1 1.4 0.3 1.8 10th
11th 0.2 0.2 0.4 11th
12th 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.4 4.0 14.6 27.6 30.2 17.1 5.3 0.6 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.6% 12.4% 12.4% 12.3 0.1 0.0 0.5
11-7 5.3% 6.4% 6.4% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 5.0
10-8 17.1% 5.6% 5.6% 13.8 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 16.1
9-9 30.2% 2.9% 2.9% 14.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 29.4
8-10 27.6% 2.1% 2.1% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 27.0
7-11 14.6% 0.4% 0.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 14.6
6-12 4.0% 4.0
5-13 0.4% 0.4
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 14.0 97.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 0.3%