Massachusetts
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.6 185
Results Rating -2.7 212
Pace 74.5 39
Improvement -2.4 277

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 160 C+ B D C C-
Defense C- 229 C- C+ C F+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 117 C 58% 161 +1.5 120
2 Pt. Jumpers 49% 60 C+ 40% 97 +1.6 92
Three Pointers 36% 288 C+ 35% 145 -2.3 259
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.2 217 C+ +1.0 132
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.04 145
Second Chance C+ 31.5% 155 B+ 1.18 28 B 0.37 63
Turnovers D 18.9% 304
Freethrows B- 0.33 89 F+ 66% 344 C 0.22 174
Total Offense C +0.1 160

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots A 67% 6 B- 9.0% 75
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 34% 62 B- 3.5% 70
Three Pointers C- 81% 244 B- 0.6% 102
Total B+ 64% 34 B- 4.7% 80

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 176 D 63% 307 +2.1 246
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 257 C- 40% 243 -0.7 135
Three Pointers 43% 109 C+ 33% 124 +0.4 206
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.3 232 C- +1.4 235
1st FG Attempt C- 1.06 240
Second Chance B- 27.7% 78 C- 1.06 229 C+ 0.29 122
Turnovers C 17.0% 170
Freethrows F 0.39 356 C 72% 167 F+ 0.28 353
Total Defense C- -1.7 229

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D 55% 311 D 7.6% 317
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 36% 325 D 2.0% 328
Three Pointers D 88% 303 D 0.1% 346
Total D 62% 322 D- 3.3% 335

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.6 101 16.9 109
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 173 0.22 328
Improvement +4.0 #20 -6.4 #364

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 214 190 163
Results Rating Rank 246 206 173
Conference Record 6 - 12 8 - 10 9 - 9
Conference Finish 8 7 5
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 3% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.5 15.2
.500 or above 70% 84% 40%
.500 or above in Conference 16% 24% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round2% 3% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Ball St. (Away) - 67.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 35 - 76 - 10
Quad 410 - 516 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 176 Marshall L 72 - 78 59% -5  11% 0 - 1 D -10 F -18 C- F F A +9 D- B A+
 Sat, Nov 8 316 Albany W 83 - 62 84% +7  75% 1 - 1 B +9 D+ -4 F A+ D- A+ +11 A C- A+
 Thu, Nov 13 300 Le Moyne W 94 - 80 82% +11  97% 2 - 1 C+ +3 B +6 A B+ F D+ -4 B- C- F
 Sun, Nov 16 303 Central Connecticut St. W 84 - 77 82% +12  99% 3 - 1 C- -4 D- -7 D A+ F C+ +2 C C+ C-
 Fri, Nov 21 149 College of Charleston L 65 - 69 42% +1  50% 3 - 2 C- -4 D- -7 B- B F B- +3 B+ F D-
 Sat, Nov 22 225 Green Bay L 75 - 79 58% -4  17% 3 - 3 D+ -8 D+ -3 F A+ C- D -5 D+ B F+
 Mon, Nov 24 158 Oregon St. W 73 - 65 44% +2  73% 4 - 3 B- +8 C +2 D+ A+ D A- +7 D- A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 146 Harvard W 78 - 71 53% +10  98% 5 - 3 C+ +5 C- -1 A F F B +5 B+ C+ C-
 Sat, Dec 6 311 Umass Lowell W 80 - 60 83% +8  84% 6 - 3 B +8 F+ -9 D+ D- F+ A+ +15 B A- A+
 Wed, Dec 10 139 Boston College W 76 - 74 39% +3  69% 7 - 3 C+ +3 B- +4 D A+ F C -1 A B- D
 Sat, Dec 13 80 Florida St. W 103 - 95 20% +5  77% 8 - 3 A- +15 A+ +16 A A+ B C- -2 D- A+ C+
 Sat, Dec 20 144 Kent St. L 59 - 69 52% -5  14% 8 - 4 0 - 1 D- -12 F -19 F F F+ B+ +7 B- B+ C
 Tue, Dec 30 248 @Eastern Michigan L 74 - 80 51% -2  31% 8 - 5 0 - 2 D+ -8 D+ -3 F C+ A+ D+ -4 C- C+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 166 Bowling Green L 100 - 101 OT 57% -0  37% 8 - 6 0 - 3 C- -4 B- +5 A+ B- D F+ -10 F+ B+ F
 Tue, Jan 6 209 @Ohio L 83 - 86 42% -3  22% 8 - 7 0 - 4 C- -3 C+ +3 B- F C D -5 F B C
 Sat, Jan 10 313 Ball St. W 79 - 71 84% +3  75% 9 - 7 1 - 4 C- -4 C+ +2 A F C+ D -6 F+ C D
 Tue, Jan 13 288 @Western Michigan W 85 - 82 61% +4  79% 10 - 7 2 - 4 C -2 B+ +8 D+ A+ D+ F+ -10 F F D
 Sat, Jan 17 323 @Northern Illinois L 68 - 70 71% -3  8% 10 - 8 2 - 5 D -9 F -11 F D F C+ +2 B C+ D-
 Tue, Jan 20 161 Toledo W 84 - 82 56% +2  66% 11 - 8 3 - 5 C -1 C+ +3 B+ B+ D+ D+ -5 D- C+ A+
 Fri, Jan 23 207 @Buffalo W 68 - 67 42% +7  78% 12 - 8 4 - 5 C +1 D -6 F B D A- +7 C- C+ B-
 Tue, Jan 27 83 @Miami (OH) L 84 - 86 14% +3  76% 12 - 9 4 - 6 B- +8 A+ +14 B+ A+ B+ D- -7 A- F D+
 Sat, Jan 31 248 Eastern Michigan W 70 - 67 73% +4  89% 13 - 9 5 - 6 C- -5 C- -2 D C A+ C- -3 D+ A- A-
 Tue, Feb 3 270 Central Michigan W 95 - 89 76% -1  44% 14 - 9 6 - 6 C- -3 A+ +15 A+ A A- F -18 F F A+
 Sat, Feb 7 236 @Coastal Carolina L 91 - 94 3OT 48% +4  68% 14 - 10 C- -4 C+ +3 D+ A D D- -7 F B- F+
 Fri, Feb 13 79 @Akron L 92 - 99 13% -5  11% 14 - 11 6 - 7 C+ +4 A- +9 A+ C- D D -5 C+ C+ D+
 Tue, Feb 17 83 Miami (OH) L 77 - 86 30% -5  2% 14 - 12 6 - 8 D+ -5 C +0 A- C+ C- D -5 D+ A F
 Sat, Feb 21 207 Buffalo L 82 - 86 OT 65% +2  62% 14 - 13 6 - 9 D -10 C- -2 A- D+ D D- -8 D+ D+ D+
 Tue, Feb 24 313 @Ball St. W 74 - 69 67%
 Sat, Feb 28 166 @Bowling Green L 75 - 79 34%
 Tue, Mar 3 209 Ohio W 83 - 79 64%
Totals 16 - 14 8 - 10 -2 C +0 C C+ C- C- -2 C+ F+ C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C C+ C+ C+ 41% 49% 36% C- C+ C+ B+ B D B- F+ C C- D C- C+ C- 39% 18% 43% C- C- B- C- C+ C F C F+
1.09 58% 40% 35% +1 0 1.04 31% 1.2 .37 19% .33 66% .22 1.11 63% 40% 33% +1 0 1.06 28% 1.1 .29 17% .39 72% .24
Nov
3		 Marshall F C- A F+ C- 43% 22% 35% B- C- F F F F A+ F A+ A F A- C+ D 33% 14% 53% F D- D- A+ B A+ F C F
0.88 57% 45% 29% -1 0 1.00 25% 0.4 .10 25% .58 58% .34 0.96 82% 29% 33% +6 +1 1.16 36% 0.8 .29 32% .34 74% .25
Nov
8		 Albany D+ D+ B+ F F 44% 14% 42% B- F B+ A+ A+ D- A+ F+ A+ A+ C A+ A+ A+ 40% 10% 50% D- A A F C- A+ F C- F
1.12 55% 43% 19% -10 +1 0.84 42% 1.8 .76 18% .49 70% .34 0.84 58% 20% 21% -12 +1 0.81 24% 1.3 .30 26% .42 70% .29
Nov
13		 Le Moyne B B+ A A+ A+ 41% 20% 39% C A A- C B+ F C+ A- B- D+ C A+ B B 46% 9% 46% F B- B- F C- F F A- D
1.23 64% 45% 43% +9 0 1.20 39% 1.1 .42 18% .32 80% .26 1.05 58% 20% 31% -4 +2 0.98 22% 1.3 .27 13% .42 64% .27
Nov
16		 Central Connecticut St. D- F+ D+ C D 40% 19% 40% D+ D A+ A+ A+ F A+ F C- C+ D+ A+ D- C+ 43% 31% 27% D- C A+ F C+ C- F A+ F
1.08 48% 36% 35% -4 0 0.95 44% 1.3 .56 22% .41 48% .20 0.99 62% 27% 38% 0 -1 1.00 16% 1.6 .25 17% .48 68% .32
Nov
21		 College of Charleston D- F+ A+ D B- 35% 22% 43% C+ B- C+ A- B F C+ F D- B- D- D- A+ A 40% 15% 45% F+ B+ A+ F F D- F F F
0.96 50% 70% 30% +2 0 1.04 32% 1.1 .35 22% .25 46% .11 1.02 68% 43% 14% -8 +1 0.87 11% 4.3 .48 13% .49 83% .41
Nov
22		 Green Bay D+ B- F F F 38% 16% 47% B- F B- A+ A+ C- A+ A+ A+ D F+ C+ A C- 56% 19% 26% D- D+ C- A+ B F+ F D- F
1.11 65% 29% 19% -9 +1 0.84 35% 2.1 .73 15% .45 85% .38 1.17 67% 38% 27% +2 +2 1.09 25% 0.9 .21 12% .59 80% .47
Nov
24		 Oregon St. C C B- F D 50% 20% 30% C+ D+ A A- A+ D D+ F F+ A- F B C+ F+ 22% 20% 59% B+ D- B- A+ A+ A+ B- A- B+
1.10 56% 40% 20% -7 +1 0.90 41% 1.2 .49 17% .31 59% .18 0.98 90% 33% 33% +5 -1 1.11 24% 0.3 .07 24% .34 71% .24
Dec
3		 Harvard C- B C A+ A+ 45% 27% 29% D A D- F F F A F+ B+ B C+ F A+ B+ 42% 27% 31% B+ B+ D- A C+ C- C C+ C
1.07 64% 38% 50% +9 0 1.20 24% 0.7 .17 21% .36 67% .24 0.97 57% 60% 18% -2 -1 0.96 32% 0.8 .24 18% .25 80% .20
Dec
6		 Umass Lowell F+ C- A- D- C- 50% 28% 22% D D+ B- F D- F+ C D+ C- A+ A- F A+ B+ 57% 20% 24% F+ B A C+ A- A+ F A+ D
1.05 57% 47% 31% +1 0 1.03 34% 0.8 .26 17% .27 71% .19 0.78 46% 67% 18% -7 +1 0.91 24% 1.0 .24 26% .48 48% .23
Dec
10		 Boston College B- F B+ F D 43% 33% 24% D D A+ A+ A+ F A+ F B+ C C- A+ A+ A+ 56% 4% 40% F A D- A B- D F F F
1.08 43% 44% 25% -8 -1 0.84 44% 1.4 .59 21% .43 54% .23 1.05 60% 0% 11% -14 +3 0.80 35% 0.8 .28 13% .57 77% .44
Dec
13		 Florida St. A+ C+ F+ A+ A 49% 17% 34% A- A B- A+ A+ B B C B- C- F A+ C+ D- 42% 7% 52% D D- D- A+ A+ C+ D+ F D-
1.26 59% 30% 50% +7 +1 1.19 33% 1.6 .53 17% .31 71% .22 1.17 76% 25% 32% +5 +2 1.17 38% 0.5 .20 15% .33 83% .27
Dec
20		 Kent St. F D F A+ F 40% 32% 28% F+ F F+ F F F+ A C- A- B+ B F A+ B- 33% 18% 49% C+ B- A+ F B+ C A D+ A-
0.83 53% 0% 46% -9 -1 0.81 22% 0.8 .17 20% .42 71% .30 0.98 50% 67% 25% -4 0 0.94 23% 1.3 .29 18% .29 76% .23
Dec
30		 Eastern Michigan D+ B- F F F 31% 31% 39% F F D A+ C+ A+ D F+ D- D+ C+ C- C C 53% 28% 19% D- C- C B C+ F F B F
1.01 61% 22% 26% -9 -2 0.81 25% 1.3 .31 10% .27 67% .18 1.10 56% 38% 33% -1 0 1.00 27% 0.9 .24 12% .61 69% .42
Jan
3		 Bowling Green B- B+ D A+ A+ 54% 12% 35% A- A+ F+ A+ B- D A+ C A+ F+ D A- F F 54% 18% 29% C F+ A+ F B+ F F A- F
1.15 64% 33% 50% +11 +2 1.29 20% 1.7 .33 21% .51 71% .36 1.16 63% 30% 44% +6 +1 1.16 14% 1.2 .17 11% .58 67% .39
Jan
6		 Ohio C+ C+ B B+ B 44% 25% 32% C- B- D F F C D B D+ D F+ C F F 34% 17% 49% D F A+ F B C C- B C
1.12 60% 43% 39% +4 0 1.11 30% 0.6 .19 16% .27 76% .21 1.16 67% 44% 42% +10 0 1.23 19% 1.2 .22 16% .34 67% .23
Jan
10		 Ball St. C+ A+ D B A 33% 20% 47% C A D F F C+ A+ F A+ D C- A D- F+ 42% 15% 42% D F+ A F C D C- C- D+
1.15 87% 33% 38% +11 0 1.24 29% 0.4 .13 17% .51 69% .35 1.03 55% 25% 36% -2 +1 1.00 18% 1.2 .21 15% .31 72% .22
Jan
13		 Western Michigan B+ C C+ C- D+ 29% 19% 52% D- D+ B- A+ A+ D+ B A A- F+ C+ F F+ F 32% 15% 53% D F F+ F F D C D+ C-
1.26 60% 40% 33% 0 0 1.02 34% 1.8 .60 15% .35 80% .28 1.21 53% 63% 39% +6 0 1.15 35% 1.3 .47 15% .28 75% .21
Jan
17		 Northern Illinois F F F D- F 49% 15% 36% B- F D+ D+ D F A+ C- A+ C+ C+ A+ A A- 43% 2% 55% F B F A C+ D- F D- F
0.93 48% 29% 29% -9 +1 0.87 28% 1.0 .28 25% .55 70% .38 0.96 52% 0% 26% -10 +3 0.88 38% 0.6 .23 19% .51 70% .36
Jan
20		 Toledo C+ B- D A+ B+ 45% 12% 43% B- B+ A- C B+ D+ A+ D A+ D+ D- F+ F F 36% 34% 30% A- D- B- C C+ A+ F D- F
1.19 64% 33% 43% +8 +2 1.20 43% 1.0 .43 20% .39 68% .26 1.16 65% 50% 43% +10 -2 1.19 26% 1.0 .26 21% .45 80% .36
Jan
23		 Buffalo D B- F+ F+ F+ 36% 28% 36% F+ F C+ B+ B D B- F C- A- F D+ B- D 23% 26% 51% A+ C- A+ F C+ B- A A+ A+
1.03 65% 31% 29% -2 -1 0.96 34% 1.1 .37 20% .30 63% .19 1.01 82% 42% 33% +6 -2 1.11 17% 1.6 .28 18% .26 50% .13
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
27		 Miami (OH) A+ B- A+ A A 27% 33% 39% F B+ B+ A+ A+ B+ C+ C+ B- D- B- F B A 27% 9% 64% C- A- F F F D+ F B- F
1.25 64% 53% 40% +10 -2 1.18 36% 1.3 .45 15% .30 76% .23 1.28 58% 50% 32% -1 +1 1.02 33% 1.7 .58 13% .65 74% .48
Jan
31		 Eastern Michigan C- B A+ F D- 55% 16% 30% B+ D C C C A+ A+ C- A+ C- F F A+ D 30% 30% 41% B D+ B+ A- A- A- F F F
1.08 63% 57% 8% -6 +2 0.93 29% 1.0 .29 11% .60 71% .43 1.03 85% 46% 22% +3 -2 1.05 22% 0.8 .19 22% .35 89% .31
Feb
3		 Central Michigan A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 48% 8% 44% A- A+ C A+ A A- A+ C+ A+ F C- C F F 35% 23% 42% C- F F D F A+ F B- F
1.36 70% 50% 43% +12 +2 1.31 36% 1.5 .54 13% .46 71% .33 1.27 60% 40% 72% +25 -1 1.51 38% 1.2 .46 30% .49 67% .33
Feb
7		 Coastal Carolina C+ F A+ B D+ 31% 39% 31% D D+ A B A D B- F F+ D- C B F F 25% 34% 41% B+ F F+ A+ B- F+ B A+ A+
1.09 21% 54% 37% -4 -3 0.89 39% 1.1 .44 14% .32 48% .15 1.12 56% 33% 48% +7 -3 1.10 31% 0.6 .19 12% .22 50% .11
Feb
13		 Akron A- B- A+ A+ A+ 46% 20% 34% C+ A+ F A+ C- D C F D+ D F C C+ C 26% 22% 52% A C+ A- F C+ D+ F F F
1.18 62% 73% 42% +13 +1 1.29 17% 1.8 .30 20% .27 65% .18 1.27 75% 40% 33% +4 -1 1.09 27% 1.4 .39 14% .64 88% .57
Feb
17		 Miami (OH) C B F A+ A 40% 30% 30% D+ A- D A+ C+ C- C F F+ D C+ F F+ D+ 37% 18% 45% C+ D+ A+ D A F F B F
1.09 65% 27% 60% +11 -1 1.22 24% 1.1 .28 18% .28 56% .16 1.22 61% 56% 41% +9 0 1.20 13% 1.3 .17 10% .52 73% .38
Feb
21		 Buffalo C- A- A+ A- A 35% 24% 41% D- A- B- F D+ D A+ F B- D- C- A+ F D+ 35% 19% 46% C+ D+ A- F D+ D+ F C F
1.13 71% 58% 40% +13 -1 1.27 37% 0.7 .27 19% .38 59% .22 1.19 59% 22% 45% +5 0 1.13 20% 1.7 .33 15% .49 73% .36



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.2 0.2 4th
5th 0.1 8.3 8.4 5th
6th 0.1 8.3 7.4 15.7 6th
7th 0.2 10.2 27.1 0.1 37.6 7th
8th 5.2 21.9 6.9 34.1 8th
9th 3.2 0.7 0.0 3.9 9th
10th 0.2 0.2 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 8.7 33.0 42.4 15.9 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 15.9% 3.9% 3.9% 13.7 0.2 0.3 0.1 15.3
8-10 42.4% 2.7% 2.7% 14.9 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.1 41.3
7-11 33.0% 1.7% 1.7% 15.4 0.3 0.2 32.4
6-12 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 8.7
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 14.7 97.7 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 99.5% 13.7 38.1 51.9 9.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.6%
Lose Out 8.7%