Memphis
American Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.2#44
Expected Predictive Rating+17.2#17
Pace75.1#43
Improvement-3.7#341

Offense
Total Offense+6.8#38
First Shot+5.0#57
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#78
Layup/Dunks+0.2#175
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#177
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#100
Freethrows+2.6#43
Improvement-2.4#334

Defense
Total Defense+4.4#63
First Shot+4.2#57
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#165
Layups/Dunks+3.7#56
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#18
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#301
Freethrows+1.1#102
Improvement-1.2#280
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.0% 1.6% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 5.3% 8.2% 2.0%
Top 6 Seed 13.7% 19.7% 6.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 71.4% 78.9% 62.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 48.9% 60.3% 37.3%
Average Seed 8.6 8.1 9.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 99.4% 99.6% 99.2%
Conference Champion 63.7% 67.3% 59.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four7.5% 7.0% 8.1%
First Round67.4% 75.3% 58.5%
Second Round32.8% 39.3% 25.5%
Sweet Sixteen10.0% 12.6% 7.1%
Elite Eight3.4% 4.3% 2.4%
Final Four1.2% 1.5% 0.8%
Championship Game0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.2% 0.1%

Next Game: Mississippi (Home) - 53.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 12 - 1
Quad 1b2 - 14 - 2
Quad 26 - 210 - 4
Quad 311 - 321 - 7
Quad 45 - 026 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 54   Missouri W 83-75 66%     1 - 0 +14.9 +7.3 +7.2
  Nov 09, 2024 106   @ UNLV W 80-74 64%     2 - 0 +13.4 +9.8 +3.6
  Nov 15, 2024 147   Ohio W 94-70 90%     3 - 0 +21.3 +10.9 +8.6
  Nov 21, 2024 61   San Francisco W 68-64 61%     4 - 0 +12.5 +1.4 +11.1
  Nov 25, 2024 10   Connecticut W 99-97 OT 30%     5 - 0 +18.7 +24.3 -5.7
  Nov 26, 2024 14   Michigan St. W 71-63 33%     6 - 0 +23.7 +14.2 +10.4
  Nov 27, 2024 1   Auburn L 76-90 13%     6 - 1 +9.4 +14.3 -5.5
  Dec 04, 2024 103   Louisiana Tech W 81-71 82%     7 - 1 +11.6 +10.7 +1.1
  Dec 08, 2024 105   Arkansas St. L 72-85 82%     7 - 2 -11.6 -9.5 -0.2
  Dec 14, 2024 37   @ Clemson W 87-82 OT 36%     8 - 2 +20.0 +16.5 +3.3
  Dec 18, 2024 92   @ Virginia W 64-62 60%     9 - 2 +10.6 +5.4 +5.4
  Dec 21, 2024 24   Mississippi St. L 66-79 49%     9 - 3 -1.6 -4.1 +2.8
  Dec 28, 2024 28   Mississippi W 78-77 53%    
  Jan 02, 2025 88   @ Florida Atlantic W 85-83 57%    
  Jan 05, 2025 85   North Texas W 70-63 76%    
  Jan 11, 2025 182   East Carolina W 81-66 92%    
  Jan 16, 2025 124   @ Temple W 80-74 71%    
  Jan 19, 2025 193   @ Charlotte W 80-70 82%    
  Jan 23, 2025 101   Wichita St. W 84-74 81%    
  Jan 26, 2025 127   UAB W 89-77 87%    
  Jan 30, 2025 202   @ Tulane W 82-72 82%    
  Feb 02, 2025 186   @ Rice W 78-68 81%    
  Feb 05, 2025 239   Tulsa W 87-68 96%    
  Feb 09, 2025 124   Temple W 83-71 86%    
  Feb 13, 2025 169   @ South Florida W 82-73 79%    
  Feb 16, 2025 101   @ Wichita St. W 81-77 63%    
  Feb 23, 2025 88   Florida Atlantic W 88-80 76%    
  Feb 26, 2025 186   Rice W 81-65 92%    
  Mar 02, 2025 127   @ UAB W 86-80 71%    
  Mar 04, 2025 226   @ Texas San Antonio W 88-76 86%    
  Mar 07, 2025 169   South Florida W 85-70 91%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 3.1 10.1 16.7 17.2 12.0 4.2 63.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.6 6.4 6.6 3.0 0.6 0.0 19.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.4 3.5 2.7 0.6 0.0 8.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 1.9 1.4 0.3 0.0 4.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 2.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 1.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.3 4.5 8.0 12.5 17.4 19.8 17.8 12.0 4.2 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 4.2    4.2
17-1 99.9% 12.0    11.8 0.2
16-2 96.5% 17.2    15.5 1.6 0.0
15-3 84.5% 16.7    12.3 4.1 0.3
14-4 58.3% 10.1    4.9 4.2 1.0 0.1 0.0
13-5 24.9% 3.1    0.8 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 5.0% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 63.7% 63.7 49.6 11.7 2.1 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 4.2% 98.8% 62.0% 36.8% 4.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 96.7%
17-1 12.0% 96.7% 58.4% 38.3% 6.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 2.1 2.3 2.0 1.4 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.4 92.0%
16-2 17.8% 90.7% 52.5% 38.2% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 2.7 3.5 3.9 2.5 0.8 0.0 1.7 80.4%
15-3 19.8% 80.7% 47.8% 32.9% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.2 4.4 5.4 2.8 0.0 3.8 63.0%
14-4 17.4% 67.7% 41.3% 26.4% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.9 4.7 4.5 0.1 5.6 45.0%
13-5 12.5% 52.4% 35.2% 17.1% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.8 0.2 5.9 26.5%
12-6 8.0% 40.6% 30.0% 10.6% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.3 0.2 4.8 15.2%
11-7 4.5% 29.6% 23.6% 6.0% 11.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.2 3.2 7.8%
10-8 2.3% 20.0% 16.3% 3.7% 11.2 0.0 0.4 0.1 1.8 4.4%
9-9 1.0% 14.9% 13.9% 1.0% 11.4 0.1 0.1 0.9 1.1%
8-10 0.4% 6.1% 5.6% 0.5% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.5%
7-11 0.1% 8.6% 8.6% 12.0 0.0 0.1
6-12 0.0% 5.0% 5.0% 12.0 0.0 0.0
5-13 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 71.4% 44.0% 27.4% 8.6 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.9 3.6 4.8 5.8 7.7 11.7 16.0 15.7 0.9 0.0 28.6 48.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.7% 100.0% 3.0 12.0 23.9 30.4 24.3 8.1 1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 99.0% 4.5 1.0 3.9 13.5 33.8 25.6 16.9 3.9 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4% 98.6% 4.8 1.0 3.4 10.1 23.2 31.4 19.3 8.7 1.4