Memphis
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.6 #78
Expected Predictive Rating +5.6 #91
Pace 73.0 #77
Improvement +0.1 #179

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #135 C A+ D- D C
Defense #31 B+ B A C- B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #138 1.24 #85 +2.5 #103
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #134 0.63 #317 -0.6 #203
Three Pointers 38% #255 1.04 #149 -1.2 #228
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #161 +0.7 #159
Freethrows 15.7 #271 67% #320 10.5 #306
Second Chance 39.5% #12 1.17 #56 0.46 #15
Turnovers 19.3% #325
Total Offense +1.1 #135

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #329 1.24 #280 +2.6 #91
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #125 0.47 #1 +2.6 #24
Three Pointers 46% #47 0.91 #60 -0.2 #189
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #47 +4.9 #47
Freethrows 19.5 #293 70% #74 13.6 #112
Second Chance 31.5% #212 0.87 #21 0.27 #74
Turnovers 20.3% #27
Total Defense +6.5 #31

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.3% #212 -1.3% #75
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.6% #150 -8.4% #48
Possession Length 16.3 #89 17.6 #239
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 #53 0.21 #298
Improvement -2.1 #304 +2.2 #60

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.4% 27.6% 21.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 1.0% 0.2%
Average Seed 11.7 11.5 11.9
.500 or above 89.3% 94.6% 83.9%
.500 or above in Conference 97.1% 98.8% 95.3%
Conference Champion 43.6% 56.2% 30.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
First Round24.2% 27.3% 21.0%
Second Round5.5% 6.8% 4.2%
Sweet Sixteen1.2% 1.6% 0.9%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida Atlantic (Away) - 50.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 6
Quad 23 - 44 - 10
Quad 39 - 313 - 13
Quad 46 - 119 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 100 San Francisco W 76 - 70 70%  +9  1 - 0 +8 +0 C A+ F +7 C A A+
 Tue, Nov 11 71 @Mississippi L 77 - 83 37%  -5  1 - 1 +5 +13 A+ F A+ -8 F C D-
 Sun, Nov 16 142 UNLV L 78 - 92 82%  -11  1 - 2 -16 -5 D- B- F -9 F A+ C+
 Thu, Nov 20 4 Purdue L 71 - 80 9%  -1  1 - 3 +14 +10 C+ A+ C- +4 C+ A+ B+
 Fri, Nov 21 62 Wake Forest L 68 - 69 45%  +5  1 - 4 +8 +3 A- B+ F +5 A+ F A+
 Wed, Nov 26 130 Southern Illinois W 74 - 58 80%  +11  2 - 4 +15 +3 C A+ F +12 A+ C B
 Wed, Dec 3 236 New Orleans W 86 - 70 91%  +16  3 - 4 +9 +7 A+ F F +1 C+ A+ C
 Sat, Dec 6 32 Baylor W 78 - 71 37%  +2  4 - 4 +18 +7 D A+ A+ +10 A+ A A+
 Sat, Dec 13 15 @Louisville L 73 - 99 12%  -17  4 - 5 -5 +6 D A+ B+ -11 F F B+
 Wed, Dec 17 7 Vanderbilt L 70 - 77 OT 18%  -3  4 - 6 +10 -8 D C F +20 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 20 55 @Mississippi St. L 66 - 71 32%  -4  4 - 7 +8 -1 D- A+ F +8 B A+ A+
 Mon, Dec 22 301 Alabama St. W 88 - 67 95%  +13  5 - 7 +10 +4 A- C+ F +5 A+ F A+
 Wed, Dec 31 133 North Texas W 57 - 48 80%  +8  6 - 7 1 - 0 +8 -9 A- B F +17 A+ B- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 245 @Rice W 76 - 70 81%  -1  7 - 7 2 - 0 +4 +8 F A+ F -3 B- D- A
 Sun, Jan 11 106 @Florida Atlantic W 75 - 74 51% 
 Wed, Jan 14 143 Temple W 79 - 69 82% 
 Sun, Jan 18 315 Texas San Antonio W 82 - 62 97% 
 Wed, Jan 21 81 @Tulsa L 75 - 77 41% 
 Sat, Jan 24 104 @Wichita St. L 71 - 72 50% 
 Thu, Jan 29 106 Florida Atlantic W 78 - 72 72% 
 Sun, Feb 1 176 Tulane W 79 - 67 86% 
 Thu, Feb 5 113 @UAB W 76 - 75 53% 
 Sun, Feb 8 166 Charlotte W 76 - 65 85% 
 Thu, Feb 12 133 @North Texas W 66 - 63 60% 
 Sat, Feb 14 35 @Utah St. L 70 - 79 20% 
 Thu, Feb 19 89 @South Florida L 78 - 80 43% 
 Sun, Feb 22 113 UAB W 79 - 72 73% 
 Thu, Feb 26 104 Wichita St. W 74 - 68 71% 
 Sun, Mar 1 266 @East Carolina W 77 - 66 83% 
 Thu, Mar 5 89 South Florida W 81 - 77 64% 
 Sun, Mar 8 176 @Tulane W 76 - 70 70% 
Totals 18 - 13 13 - 5 +8 +1 C A+ D- +6 B+ B A




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.4 7.1 12.8 11.9 7.1 2.7 0.5 43.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 6.1 8.4 3.6 0.7 0.1 19.5 2nd
3rd 0.2 3.4 6.4 2.1 0.1 12.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 5.3 1.8 0.1 8.5 4th
5th 0.2 2.9 2.4 0.1 5.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 2.6 0.4 4.2 6th
7th 0.3 1.7 0.7 0.0 2.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.1 1.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 1.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.9 4.2 7.6 12.2 15.9 17.6 16.6 12.6 7.2 2.7 0.5 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 100.0% 2.7    2.7 0.0
16-2 99.3% 7.1    6.9 0.3
15-3 94.2% 11.9    10.0 1.9 0.0
14-4 77.5% 12.8    7.7 4.4 0.7 0.0
13-5 40.3% 7.1    1.9 3.0 1.9 0.3 0.0
12-6 8.7% 1.4    0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 43.6% 43.6 29.8 9.8 3.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 67.6% 52.4% 15.2% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 32.0%
17-1 2.7% 45.7% 40.4% 5.3% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.1 1.5 8.9%
16-2 7.2% 41.9% 39.7% 2.2% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.0 0.7 0.0 4.2 3.6%
15-3 12.6% 32.2% 31.9% 0.4% 11.4 0.1 2.4 1.5 0.0 8.5 0.5%
14-4 16.6% 30.7% 30.5% 0.2% 11.6 0.0 2.1 2.9 0.1 11.5 0.3%
13-5 17.6% 24.5% 24.5% 0.0% 11.8 1.2 2.8 0.2 0.0 13.3 0.0%
12-6 15.9% 20.8% 20.8% 0.0% 12.0 0.5 2.4 0.4 0.0 12.6 0.0%
11-7 12.2% 15.5% 15.5% 12.4 0.1 1.0 0.7 0.1 10.3
10-8 7.6% 9.4% 9.4% 12.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 6.9
9-9 4.2% 6.6% 6.6% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.9
8-10 1.9% 4.6% 4.6% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.9
7-11 0.7% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.0 0.7
6-12 0.2% 9.3% 9.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 24.4% 23.9% 0.5% 11.7 75.6 0.6%