IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Memphis
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page

Predictive Rating	+5.5	#96
Expected Predictive Rating	+2.9	#115

Pace	73.4	#66
Improvement	-2.9	#301

	Overall	1st FGA	Second Chance	TOs	Free throws	Shot Selection
Offense	#195	C	B+	D	C-	C
Defense	#37	B	B-	A-	C-	B-

Offense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	40%	#141	1.19	#126	+1.5	#123
2 Pt. Jumpers	22%	#142	0.71	#260	+0.0	#173
Three Pointers	38%	#245	0.96	#252	-2.6	#271
1st FG Attempt			1.00	#202	-1.0	#203
Freethrows	0.29	#218	71%	#221	0.21	#218
Second Chance	37.7%	#19	1.10	#78	0.42	#29
Turnovers					19.4%	#333
Total Offense					-1.0	#195

Defense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	33%	#313	1.16	#184	+3.0	#80
2 Pt. Jumpers	21%	#148	0.64	#17	+1.0	#115
Three Pointers	45%	#61	0.89	#36	+0.6	#153
1st FG Attempt			0.93	#51	+4.6	#52
Freethrows	0.33	#272	72%	#130	0.23	#252
Second Chance	31.7%	#226	0.89	#27	0.28	#96
Turnovers					20.7%	#19
Total Defense					+6.4	#37

Miscellaneous

	Offense		Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect	-0.2%	#209	-0.9%	#95
Shot Type Accuracy Effect	-1.8%	#204	-8.1%	#47
Possession Length	16.0	#62	17.9	#279
Fast Break Points Per Possession	0.24	#36	0.19	#246
Improvement	-3.6	#338	+0.7	#143

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	11.7%	13.8%	9.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	12.6	12.3	13.0

.500 or above	58.9%	73.2%	45.4%
.500 or above in Conference	87.8%	95.4%	80.6%
Conference Champion	4.8%	8.2%	1.5%
Last Place in Conference	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

First Four	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
First Round	11.7%	13.8%	9.7%
Second Round	1.7%	2.2%	1.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.3%	0.4%	0.2%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: UAB (Away) - 48.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 3	0 - 3
Quad 1b	0 - 3	0 - 6
Quad 2	2 - 6	3 - 12
Quad 3	8 - 3	11 - 15
Quad 4	6 - 1	17 - 16

Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Record		Total Rating	Offense				Defense
Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Overall	Conf	Total Rating	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs
Sat, Nov 8	97 San Francisco	W	76 - 70	62%	+9	1 - 0		+8	-1	C	A+	F	+9	B-	B+	A
Tue, Nov 11	59 @Mississippi	L	77 - 83	26%	-5	1 - 1		+6	+14	A+	F+	A+	-8	F+	C	D
Sun, Nov 16	128 UNLV	L	78 - 92	73%	-11	1 - 2		-15	-6	F+	A-	F	-8	F+	A	C+
Thu, Nov 20	8 Purdue	L	71 - 80	8%	-1	1 - 3		+12	+8	C-	A+	C	+4	C+	A+	A-
Fri, Nov 21	75 Wake Forest	L	68 - 69	41%	+5	1 - 4		+7	+2	B+	B-	F+	+5	A+	F	A+
Wed, Nov 26	137 Southern Illinois	W	74 - 58	75%	+11	2 - 4		+14	+4	C	A+	D-	+11	A+	B-	B
Wed, Dec 3	218 New Orleans	W	86 - 70	86%	+16	3 - 4		+10	+7	A+	F+	F	+2	B-	A+	C
Sat, Dec 6	47 Baylor	W	78 - 71	38%	+2	4 - 4		+16	+7	D-	A+	A	+9	A+	B+	B+
Sat, Dec 13	16 @Louisville	L	73 - 99	8%	-17	4 - 5		-5	+7	D	A+	B	-12	F	F	B
Wed, Dec 17	12 Vanderbilt	L	70 - 77 OT	17%	-3	4 - 6		+9	-9	D+	D	F+	+19	A+	A+	A+
Sat, Dec 20	73 @Mississippi St.	L	66 - 71	30%	-4	4 - 7		+6	-1	D-	A+	F	+7	B-	A-	A+
Mon, Dec 22	322 Alabama St.	W	88 - 67	95%	+13	5 - 7		+8	+6	A-	C+	F	+2	A-	F	A-
Wed, Dec 31	147 North Texas	W	57 - 48	77%	+8	6 - 7	1 - 0	+7	-9	B	B-	F	+16	A+	C+	A+
Sat, Jan 3	233 @Rice	W	76 - 70	73%	-1	7 - 7	2 - 0	+5	+6	F	A+	F	-1	B	D+	B+
Sun, Jan 11	109 @Florida Atlantic	L	78 - 89	46%	-8	7 - 8	2 - 1	-4	+0	B-	D+	C-	-4	C	F	C+
Wed, Jan 14	143 Temple	W	55 - 53	76%	+4	8 - 8	3 - 1	+0	-16	F	C	D+	+16	A+	B-	A+
Sun, Jan 18	342 Texas San Antonio	W	95 - 69	96%	+12	9 - 8	4 - 1	+11	+13	A+	C-	C	-2	D	C	A+
Wed, Jan 21	69 @Tulsa	L	66 - 83	29%	-3	9 - 9	4 - 2	-6	-2	F+	B+	F	-5	A+	D	D
Sat, Jan 24	99 @Wichita St.	L	59 - 74	41%	-13	9 - 10	4 - 3	-7	-12	F	B+	F	+5	C-	A-	B+
Thu, Jan 29	109 Florida Atlantic	W	92 - 65	68%	+12	10 - 10	5 - 3	+28	+10	B	A+	C	+15	A+	B	A+
Sun, Feb 1	171 Tulane	L	76 - 78	81%	-5	10 - 11	5 - 4	-6	+2	F	C+	B-	-8	F	C+	A-
Thu, Feb 5	120 @UAB	L	75 - 76	49%
Sun, Feb 8	157 Charlotte	W	76 - 67	79%
Thu, Feb 12	147 @North Texas	W	65 - 63	56%
Sat, Feb 14	38 @Utah St.	L	68 - 79	15%
Thu, Feb 19	70 @South Florida	L	76 - 82	30%
Sun, Feb 22	120 UAB	W	78 - 72	69%
Thu, Feb 26	99 Wichita St.	W	73 - 69	62%
Sun, Mar 1	247 @East Carolina	W	75 - 68	75%
Thu, Mar 5	70 South Florida	W	79 - 78	51%
Sun, Mar 8	171 @Tulane	W	74 - 71	61%
Totals						15 - 16	10 - 8	+5	-1	C	B+	D	+6	B	B-	A-

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected American Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0	Total
1st													1.1	2.6	1.1					4.8	1st
2nd												0.9	7.3	3.7	0.4					12.3	2nd
3rd											0.2	6.7	6.4	0.3						13.5	3rd
4th										0.0	2.5	10.1	1.0							13.5	4th
5th										0.3	7.7	4.5	0.0							12.5	5th
6th									0.0	3.0	9.3	0.7								13.1	6th
7th								0.0	0.6	7.5	3.6	0.0								11.7	7th
8th								0.2	3.7	5.8	0.3									10.0	8th
9th							0.1	1.3	3.4	0.7	0.0									5.5	9th
10th						0.0	0.3	1.2	0.7	0.0										2.3	10th
11th						0.0	0.2	0.3	0.0											0.6	11th
12th						0.0	0.0	0.0												0.1	12th
13th																					13th

Total						0.1	0.7	3.1	8.3	17.5	23.6	22.9	15.9	6.5	1.5						Total

American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total	Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4	72.8%	1.1	0.6	0.5
13-5	39.7%	2.6	0.5	1.3	0.7	0.1
12-6	7.0%	1.1	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.4	0.2	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	4.8%	4.8	1.1	2.0	1.1	0.5	0.2	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance	Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid	At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4	1.5%	32.0%	32.0%		11.3									0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2					1.0
13-5	6.5%	22.3%	22.2%	0.1%	11.8											0.3	1.1	0.1				5.1	0.1%
12-6	15.9%	18.5%	18.5%		12.0											0.4	2.1	0.4	0.0			12.9
11-7	22.9%	13.4%	13.4%		12.5											0.1	1.7	1.1	0.3			19.8
10-8	23.6%	9.5%	9.5%		13.0											0.0	0.7	1.0	0.5	0.0		21.3
9-9	17.5%	6.0%	6.0%		14.2												0.0	0.1	0.4	0.4		16.4
8-10	8.3%	4.4%	4.4%		15.1														0.0	0.3	0.1	8.0
7-11	3.1%	2.1%	2.1%		15.5															0.0	0.0	3.0
6-12	0.7%	3.0%	3.0%		16.0																0.0	0.7
5-13	0.1%																					0.1
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18

Total	100%	11.7%	11.7%	0.0%	12.6																	88.3	0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.2%	100.0%	10.8									11.1	13.9	58.3	16.7